Trade Effects Research Articles

Era of uncertain events: Swedish foreign trade in 2010–2023

International trade has experienced since Global Financial Crisis (GFC) numerous uncertainties and risks. There are some countries that have successfully navigated in this challenging environment, like Sweden. In this research, we analyze the changes in trade between 2010–2023. For imports, the role of Russia, United Kingdom (UK) and Denmark has declined, while the importance of the Netherlands, Norway, and Poland show increase. For exports, a diminishing role of UK and Russia could be detected, while the role of the USA, Poland, Germany and China has increased. Our interpretation is that these trade changes are due to global geopolitical, i.e. macro-level shifts. Both Brexit (2016 onwards) and Russian invasion of Ukraine (2014 onwards) show long-term trade effects. Prior both UK and Russia held high importance; however, in the recent years, especially exports to USA have played more important role, and it is providing growth and surplus. Despite the export growth to Poland, Germany, and China, the trade to these countries remains to show trade deficit. We also analyze the impact of trade changes on maritime trade. Although, the overall handling at sea ports has declined, but container based trade demonstrates clear growth. Direct container connections to UK and Russia have declined substantially in the observation period as Chinese show significant increase.

Heterogeneous effects of inward investment, trade and funds transfer on improved misery index in EAC-6

Heterogeneous effects of inward investment, trade and funds transfer on improved misery index in EAC-6

Cultural, Economic, or Transport Link: Does Carbon Emissions Trading Promote “Good Neighbor” Carbon Emission Reduction?

Carbon emission reduction was a crucial objective for China’s green transformation, yet establishing regional cooperation with neighboring areas posed a significant challenge in carbon governance. We investigated the spillover effects of carbon emissions trading (CET) on carbon emissions among Chinese cities, employing spatial difference-in-differences (DID), Callaway and Sant’Anna DID (CSDID), and other methodologies. Our paper integrated datasets on high-speed rails, dialects, and carbon emissions at the prefecture-level city scale. The findings revealed that (1) CET reduces emissions by 11.55% in pilot regions, although the impact of the second policy pilot was not significant. (2) In terms of spillover effects, CET increased emissions in neighboring cities with economic and geographic ties, creating a “beggar-thy-neighbor” reduction model. Conversely, it reduced emissions in cities with shared cultural ties, fostering a “good neighbor” reduction model. (3) The policy spillover effect exhibited an “inverted N” curve, first decreasing, then increasing, and finally decreasing as economic and geographic distance increased. (4) Technological advancement was identified as the primary mechanism driving the spillover effects of CET. To achieve the dual-carbon goal, avoiding harmful economic competition and promoting low-carbon cultural exchanges were essential.

Deciphering the complex interplay: Heterogeneous, threshold, and mediation effects of trade openness on CO2 emissions in Africa.

Despite having barely anything to do with the issue of CO2 emissions, Africa has been experiencing more severe climate change and its adverse effects than most other regions of the globe. However, the issue of CO2 emissions and its adverse effects has received relatively little attention in the African research arena. To this end, the present research assesses the effect of trade openness on the CO2 emissions utilizing panel data from 46 African countries spanning 2000 through 2022. To account for the possible heterogeneity and nonlinearity, the panel quantile regression and threshold methods were employed. Moreover, this study investigates the key mediating effects of the channel. The empirical findings show that greater trade openness is associated with significantly higher CO2 emission, additionally; it demonstrates that the influence is heterogeneous across different CO2 emission quantiles in African countries. Besides the result from the double threshold model reveals a complex, nonlinear relationship between trade openness and CO2 emissions in Africa. Moreover, the findings divulge that openness to trade indirectly reduces CO2 emissions through the substitution and technology channels whereas it indirectly increases carbon dioxide production via the economic track. Therefore, it is vital to promote the use of renewable energy, effectively leverage the knowledge spillover effects of trade to decrease energy intensity and formulate pertinent policies aimed at curbing carbon emissions and addressing the imminent threat of climate change in Africa. Besides, the nonlinear and heterogeneous effects of trade openness on CO2 emissions suggest that policies and interventions related to the impact of trade openness on CO2 emissions should consider the current level of carbon dioxide emissions.

Retraction Note: Effect of trade on ecological quality: a case of D-8 countries.

Retraction Note: Effect of trade on ecological quality: a case of D-8 countries.

Effects of Child Street Trading on Educational Outcomes in Lagos Nigeria

This study examines the effects of child street trading on educational outcomes in Lagos, Nigeria. Using a qualitative research design, data were collected through semi-structured interviews with parents and teachers to explore how street trading impacts school attendance, academic performance, and the cognitive and emotional development of children. Data were analyzed using thematic analysis, which involved emergent open coding to identify recurring patterns and themes. The analysis revealed four major themes: (1) disruption of school attendance and engagement, (2) academic performance and learning challenges, (3) cognitive and emotional development, and (4) socioeconomic pressures and educational aspirations. The findings show that street trading significantly disrupts children’s school attendance, leading to tardiness, missed classes, and exhaustion, which hinder their ability to concentrate and engage in learning. As a result, academic performance suffers, with children experiencing gaps in knowledge and declining grades. Additionally, the emotional toll of street trading was evident, with many children struggling with low self-esteem and feelings of failure, further diminishing their motivation to succeed academically. The study concludes that child street trading poses substantial barriers to educational success, perpetuating poverty and limiting future opportunities. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted policies and interventions to mitigate the negative impact of street trading on children’s education in Lagos, Nigeria.

Effect of a small increase in off-premises trading hours on alcohol sales in Norway: A stepped-wedge cluster-randomized controlled trial.

Evidence of the effect of limiting off-premises alcohol trading hours is still scarce. This study tested the effect of a small extension in trading hours on alcohol sales in alcohol monopoly outlets in Norway. The extension of trading hours was implemented within a stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial design. Eligible state monopoly outlets (n = 229) were clustered into trade districts (n = 62), which were block-randomized to one of three sequences regarding date of implementation: 1 September 2020 (n = 21 districts, 82 outlets), 1 December 2020 (n = 21 districts, 73 outlets) and 1 March 2021 (n = 20 districts, 74 outlets). Outcomes were followed-up for a 1-year period. Study participants were state monopoly outlets in urban and rural trade districts in all parts of Norway. Monthly alcohol sales in litres of pure alcohol per trade district and per outlet were measured from March 2020 to March 2022 (primary outcome). We applied a linear mixed-effect model with two-way fixed effects within a difference-in-difference framework. As a robustness check we considered the effects of cross-border trade and effects in subgroups of outlets. Trading hours in monopoly outlets were extended by 1 hour on Saturdays. The extension was permanent. Pre-intervention periods and not-yet-treated units served as control conditions. We did not find a statistically significant effect of the small extension in trading hours on monthly alcohol sales (i) per trade district [average treatment effect: -185.5litres, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -1159.9, 788.9] and (ii) per outlet (-35.3litres, 95% CI = -142.1, 72.0). These findings were consistent across estimation methods and model specifications. There is no clear evidence that a small extension in off-premises trading hours affected alcohol sales in monopoly outlets in Norway.

Assessing the synergistic effect of “pollution and carbon reduction” and “economic growth”: a perspective from bilateral trade between China and RCEP countries

IntroductionWith the accelerating process of globalization, trade activities have had profound impacts on both the environment and economic development.MethodsThis paper comprehensively evaluates the synergistic effect of bilateral trade on “pollution reduction” and “carbon mitigation,” as well as “economic growth,” utilizing panel data from China and RCEP countries spanning the period from 1997 to 2020.ResultsThe empirical results reveal that bilateral trade significantly propels economic growth in RCEP countries and exhibits a positive “pollution reduction” effect, whereas its “carbon reduction” effect remains uncertain. To delve into the underlying reasons for bilateral trade’s failure to effectively mitigate carbon emissions, this paper undertakes a mechanism test along two opposing paths. Notably, the influence of bilateral trade on economic growth and “pollution reduction” in RCEP countries varies regionally. Specifically, bilateral trade is more efficacious in fostering economic growth in ASEAN countries. Additionally, bilateral trade enhances environmental quality in ASEAN countries, yet it deteriorates in non-ASEAN countries. Furthermore, this paper examines the intricate relationship between bilateral trade, economic growth, and “pollution reduction” through the application of the PVAR model. It concludes that optimizing environmental quality in RCEP countries is conducive to both local economic growth and bilateral trade.ConclusionThis study not only bears significant implications for understanding the complex interplay between economic growth, environmental quality, trade liberalization, and environmental policies, but also provides invaluable guidance for policy formulation and implementation aimed at achieving green transformation and fostering sustainable economic development.

Foreseeing Potential Trade Effects of Additive Manufacturing: Evidence from Trade in Sound Recordings

Additive manufacturing (AM), known as three-dimensional printing, has the potential to drastically change the mode of production and trade in goods. However, it is challenging to investigate the effects of AM on trade because existing AM production patterns are still immature. As an analogy for the impacts of AM, this study investigates the effects of internet distribution on trade in sound recordings, which has changed after the emergence of online shops or streaming services. Specifically, we estimate the gravity equation in the bilateral trade in sound recordings among 197 countries in 2003–2017 and demonstrate that internet penetration significantly decreases trade in sound recordings. Furthermore, the strong protection of intellectual property rights in importing countries weakens the trade-reducing effect, whereas that in exporting countries magnifies such an effect.

Strategic investments and portfolio management in interdependent low-carbon electricity and natural gas markets

Addressing global warming necessitates carbon emissions reduction and renewable energy integration within the energy sector. Gas-Fired Power Plants (GFPP) are appealing to investors due to their low emissions and operational flexibility, which are considered necessary characteristics within low-carbon power systems with increasing renewable energy uncertainty. Investing in GFPPs presents intricate challenges due to the increasingly interdependent electricity and natural gas markets, especially in the light of a low-carbon economy. This work addresses these challenges for a strategic agent by proposing a bi-level optimization framework. The upper-level model derives the optimal electricity portfolio management regarding new investments and strategic biddings, while in the lower-level model, the electricity and gas markets are cleared sequentially under a Carbon Emission Trading Scheme (CETS). Case studies on a Pennsylvania-New Jersey- Maryland (PJM) 5-bus power system and an IEEE 24-bus test system demonstrate the applicability and efficacy of the proposed model in capturing the impact of a transitional integrated market framework on GFPPs investments. Also, introducing stochasticity to the model provides a better insight into the contrasting effects of emission allowance trading and gas prices on investment and bidding strategies.

Vertical specialization, global expansion of supply chain, and convergence

Abstract In this paper, we construct an elaborate general equilibrium model with a continuum of production fragments for an intermediate good, then incorporate it in a growth model to address the effects of global production fragmentation, vertical specialization, and trade on growth and inequality for a small developing country. Among other things, we show that a small developing economy grows faster than the rest of the world as a result of global fragmentation and trade in intermediates if it is skilled-labor scarce. We further address the effects of such a trade opening on wage inequality.

Peer-to-peer energy trading framework for an autonomous DC microgrid using game theoretic approach

Peer-to-peer (P2P) electricity trading has become the next generation of energy management strategies that economically benefits prosumers by trading electricity as goods and services. The P2P electricity market is expected to support the grid to minimize reserve requirements, lower investment and operational costs, reduce peak demand, and improve reliability. This study proposes a peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading framework for an autonomous DC microgrid. The motivation is to overcome several issues related to P2P reported in the literature: the lack of physical microgrid modeling, absence of an energy management system (EMS) before the P2P trading simulation, and full autonomy of P2P participants. To address these shortcomings, a framework that integrates physical layer (modeling of the microgrid), information layer (EMS), and application layer (P2P trading scheme) is suggested. The P2P market clearance utilizes a non-cooperative game theory incorporating the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm. To demonstrate the proposed framework, the P2P trading of four households (prosumers) that consists of rooftop PV, local energy storage (LES), and independent community energy storage (CES) is simulated. The objective is to prove the effectiveness of P2P trading in comparison with a framework without it. The MATLAB simulation results show that the system that utilizes P2P trading can reduce the daily overall cost of energy by 47.48 %, that is, from $28.85 (without P2P) to $15.15 (with P2P). This study demonstrated the benefits of P2P energy trading for prosumers and promoted the development of the energy market.

Labour market impacts of the China shock: Why the tide of Globalisation did not lift all boats

The 1990s and 2000s saw a dramatic expansion in global goods trade. China rapidly emerged as the world's leading exporter while manufacturing employment in many high-income countries plummeted. Guided by textbook models that assumed frictionless labour markets and balanced trade, economists long maintained the view that trade had only modest labour market impacts and was not an important contributor to rising inequalities in high-income countries. We review recent evidence on the impacts of rapidly rising import competition from China on a broad range of outcomes in high-income countries. Import competition led to employment and wage losses that were heavily concentrated among the employees of exposed industries and individuals residing in local labour markets where such industries clustered, while consumer gains from lower goods prices were much more evenly distributed in the population. The disruptive effects of trade were particularly salient in countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom where a rapid growth of imports did not coincide with a commensurate expansion of own exports. Local labour markets facing greater import competition also experienced deteriorations in terms of health outcomes, crime, and family structures, and they became more likely to support far right politicians. We discuss several policy options to support the losers from globalisation.

Effect of Technical NTMs on Indian Exports to ASEAN: What Role Do Logistics and Governance Capabilities Play?

Technical non-tariff measures (NTMs) represent a commonly employed set of trade policy tools with well-documented implications for international trade. However, this study seeks to delve deeper into the underlying factors shaping these trade effects, focusing specifically on Indian exports to the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN). This study posits that domestic institutional and infrastructural conditions play a pivotal role in influencing the impact of regulatory measures such as technical NTMs. By leveraging logistics and governance indicators to assess these conditions, the research adopts a novel two-stage analysis approach. Initially, the study quantifies the trade effects of technical NTMs, which subsequently serve as the dependent variable in the second stage. The findings uncover nuanced patterns specific to indicators and NTM categories, with a notable emphasis on the significance of importer (ASEAN) indicators over exporter (India) indicators. Moreover, this article introduces an innovative methodological framework that transcends conventional analyses of technical NTMs, aiming to pinpoint the precise factors driving their effects for targeted improvement strategies.

Current trends in carbon emission trading: Theoretical perspectives, research methods and emerging themes

Since the inception of the EU carbon emissions trading market, it has experienced substantial growth. However, there is a shortage of comprehensive analysis on the policy implications of carbon emissions trading in the context of the low-carbon economy. The article utilizes bibliometric and content analytic methodologies to thoroughly examine the features and content of 116 relevant pieces of literature. Based on this analysis, a research model on the carbon emissions trading schemes is constructed. The study findings indicate a significant surge in the quantity of published material since 2021, with a predominant focus on terms related to the low carbon economy, such as environmental regulation and carbon emission. The research hotspots are related to transformation and upgrading and enterprise performance, etc. The research theory involves compliance cost theory, Porter's hypothesis theory, emissions trading theory and green innovation theory, empirical research is the main method of carbon emissions trading research. Emerging theme analyses are summarized in terms of the economic, environmental, technological and social effects of carbon trading. Finally, there are research conclusions and future research trends.

Assessing the risk of overexploitation to a tarantula species in the pet trade.

The global pet trade in invertebrates remains poorly understood and underrepresented in policy and research. Tarantulas are a highly traded invertebrate group. Many individuals in trade are wild caught, and trade regulation is often lacking, raising concerns about the effect of trade on local ecosystems and populations. We addressed local concerns surrounding the international trade of Tapinauchenius rasti (Caribbean diamond tarantula), which is endemic to Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. We assessed the extinction risks associated with this widely traded species by analyzing supply of and demand for the species with the COM-B (capability, opportunity, motivation, behavior) model. This model breaks down decision-making into capability, opportunity, and motivation. We interviewed stakeholders throughout the supply chain and analyzed content of an online hobbyist forum and a time series of prices for this species and other tarantulas. In terms of motivation, there was limited preference for the Caribbean diamond tarantula due to its morphology and behavior. In terms of opportunity, the species was readily available, primarily through captive breeding. Collecting wild specimens is challenging due to enforcement measures and logistical difficulties, making it an unprofitable endeavor. In terms of capability, the species was relatively low in price, likely because it is easy to breed in captivity. As a result, the current wildlife trade does not pose a significant threat to the Caribbean diamond tarantula. Our methodology can serve as a valuable tool for assessing potential threats posed by trade to other spider species and possibly other invertebrates. Understanding these threats is crucial for promoting responsible and sustainable trade practices that minimize risks to wild populations while ensuring equitable benefits for communities coexisting with wildlife.

Effects of trade and poaching pressure on extinction risk for cacti in the Atacama Desert.

In this era of a global biodiversity crisis, vascular plants are facing unprecedented extinction rates. We conducted an assessment of the extinction risk of 32 species and 7 subspecies of Copiapoa, a genus endemic to Chile's fog-dependent coastal Atacama Desert. We applied the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List Categories and Criteria enhanced by expert insights and knowledge. Our primary aim was to analyze the impact of trade and poaching on their extinction risk. We employed machine learning models, including multinomial logistic regression (MLR), decision tree (DT), and random forest (RF), to analyze the relationships between conservation status and various factors. These factors encompassed trade and poaching activities, landscape condition, human footprint, monthly cloud frequency, and biological traits such as evolutionary distinctiveness and maximum diameter. Seven taxa had an area of occupancy (AOO) of <10km2, 10 additional taxa had an AOO of <20km2, and 16 taxa had an AOO of ≤100km2. This reassessment exposed a critical level of extinction risk for the genus; 92% of the taxa were classified as threatened, 41% as critically endangered, 41% as endangered, and 10% as vulnerable. MLR, DT, and RF exhibited accuracies of 0.784, 0.730, and 0.598, respectively, and identified trade and poaching pressure and landscape condition as the primary drivers of extinction risk. Our assessment of Copiapoa showed trade, poaching, habitat degradation, and their synergic impacts as the main drivers of the genus' extinction risk. Our results highlight the urgent need for nations to develop and enforce strategies to monitor and control trade and poaching pressure because these factors are crucial for the long-term persistence of desert plants.

Carbon Emissions and Growth: The Role of Trade and Urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this study, we employed a system generalised method of moments (GMM) to investigate the effect of trade, urbanization, and income on the environmental quality in a panel of 48 Sub-Saharan African countries, covering the period 1990-2018. Our findings demonstrated that urbanization does not have significant explanatory power over carbon emissions, whereas, trade positively and significantly drives emissions. Our findings further exhibit an inverted U-shape relationship between income and carbon dioxide emissions. This substantiates the existence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is therefore concluded that policymakers can focus on growth-promoting policies and should not adopt stringent conservative policies, which may hurt growth and delay the process of reaching a turning point in the Kuznets curve.

Price spillovers and interdependences in China's agricultural commodity futures market: Evidence from the US-China trade dispute

We examine the effects of the US-China trade dispute on price spillovers and interdependencies among the ten most liquid agricultural futures contracts traded on China's commodity exchanges by employing the time-varying connectedness framework modified by Antonakakis, Chatziantoniou, and Gabauer (2020). We find that the overall market frictions increase modestly due to the clustering of mixed informational disturbances caused by the trade dispute. This lowers the gross spillovers in the entire asset system by reducing the efficiency of general price signal transmission. Notably, subsidiary products of rapeseed and soybean contribute the most to the total and net directional spillovers in the whole market, acting as shock transmitters before the trade dispute. The RBD palm market gains a dominant role as a shock transmitter during the trade dispute and its role strengthens further after the trade agreement was reached. Additionally, the average intensity of pairwise spillovers declines considerably during the trade dispute, suggesting weakening asset interconnectedness. The responsiveness of shock transmission channels to the trade dispute impacts is found to vary across industrial chains and the presence of delayed economic effects is detected in the structural changes of market interdependences.

Lights dim, exports down: Examining the trade effects of power shortages on Chinese manufacturing firms

While existing research extensively investigates the repercussions of demand shocks on export performance, limited attention has been given to understanding the trade implications of supply-side input shocks. Utilizing a city-level power shortage index and firm-level data from 2006 to 2014 for the Chinese manufacturing sector, we provide novel evidence of a significant negative impact of power shortages on export performance. This finding remains robust across alternative measurements and in addressing endogeneity concerns. Furthermore, we find that power shortages curtail firms' inventory and innovation activities, which are linked to export performance. Heterogeneity tests reveal insignificant impacts on state-owned firms, those in inland areas and high-energy-consuming industries as well. Additionally, our findings indicate that power shortages exclusively affect the intensive margins of exports rather than the extensive margins. This research offers valuable insights for policymakers and managers in devising strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of power shortages.