Effects Of Oil Price Uncertainty Research Articles

Oil price uncertainty and corporate diversification: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms

This study examines the effect of oil price uncertainty on corporate diversification using the Chinese manufacturing listed firms for the period from 2007 to 2019. From the risk hedging perspective, we find that firms are more likely to diversify across industries when oil price uncertainty increases. These findings are robust to utilize alternative measures of key variables, perform an instrumental variable regression, system GMM approach, the change regression, and consider other contemporaneous shocks. Further mediation analyses reveal that the increased diversification mainly results from the heightened operational risk and financing constraints of firms. Finally, we observe that the relation between oil price uncertainty and corporate diversification is more pronounced for firms with higher exposure to oil price and those with higher external profit pressure. Overall, our study sheds new light on the impact of oil price uncertainty on the firm-level activities, and contributes to the debate about the driving factors for the diversification trend in emerging markets.

Effects of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment of Islamic stocks: evidence from the extreme event of Covid-19 pandemic

Purpose This paper aims to examine the effects of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment of Islamic stocks during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach The study uses a panel data set that covers 398 listed Islamic stocks from seven major Asia Pacific countries over the period of five years from 2017 to 2021, yielding 1,990 observations. Specifically, this paper investigates the said association by combining the real options theory regarding investment and the panel data-based econometric method that captures the dynamic relationship, the generalized method of moments estimators. Findings The findings show that the relationship between the oil price volatility and corporate investment of Islamic stocks is significant and nonlinear in nature, suggesting the presence of both the growth options and the waiting options. Overall, the results reveal that corporate investment of Islamic stocks is hindered during the unprecedented corona crash, when oil price increases at exponential rates. Practical implications The findings suggest that considering the information caused by unprecedented events like the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial for investment decisions of Islamic stocks. Therefore, policymakers and regulators should incorporate the impact of oil price uncertainties caused by unprecedented events like the COVID-19 pandemic on firm’s investment expansion and diversification strategies. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first to examine the relationship between the investment of Islamic stocks and the oil price uncertainty under compound options theory in top Asian oil-importing countries.

Oil price uncertainty and corporate inventory investment

PurposeThis study examines the relationship between oil price uncertainty (OPU) and corporate inventory investments using a sample of 6,072 USA manufacturing firms from 1992 to 2019.Design/methodology/approachThe author's study employs a panel dataset to examine the relationship between OPU and corporate inventory investments. The author uses several alternative specifications such as fixed effects models, an instrumental variable analysis, an impact threshold for confounding variable (ITCV) analysis, alternative measures, additional control variables and the percent bias analysis to account for endogeneity issues.FindingsCorporate inventory investments decrease in response to high OPU. This decrease in inventory investments happens regardless of firms' expected stockout costs, information environment and reliance on external financing. As a potential mechanism, an uncertainty-induced increase in cash holdings contributes to this reduction in inventory investments. Also, the effect of OPU is non-linear and asymmetric. In response to the volatility of positive (negative) oil price changes, inventory investments decrease (increase) up to a certain point and increase (decrease) after that. Further, uncertainty-induced adjustments in inventory investments positively influence the operating performance of firms.Originality/valueThe author's study adds to the growing literature that examines the impact of OPU on corporate outcomes. Inventory investments directly affect business operations and could better reflect firms' responses to an uncertain environment.

Re-examining the Impact of Oil Price Uncertainty on Sovereign CDS Spread of GCC Countries: Accounting for the Asymmetry and Outliers

We examine the effect of oil price uncertainty on sovereign credit risks in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Unlike past studies, we employ a structural vector autoregression with multivariate GARCH-in-mean (VAR-GARCH-in-mean) approach after filtering out outliers in the observed series. The findings show that uncertainty in the oil market has a positive impact on the sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads of the GCC countries. Furthermore, we find that GCC sovereign CDS spreads react asymmetrically to positive and negative oil price shocks.

Oil price uncertainty, financial distress and real economic activities: Evidence from China

This paper studies the transmission of oil price uncertainty (OPU) shock to real economic activities by focusing on the role of financial condition. We find that financial stress is an important link in the propagation of OPU shock based on China’s macro- and firm-level data. We document significant decrease in real economic activities as oil price uncertainty increases by using SVAR, and further suggest that the contractionary effect of oil price uncertainty is more pronounced under high financial stress. Firm-level evidence consistently shows that heightened financial distress cost – resulted from oil price uncertainty – suppresses investments. OPU shock may cause financial distress through mechanisms of credit crunch, firm volatility and exchange rate uncertainty.

The macroeconomic effects of oil price uncertainty

We study the impact of oil price uncertainty (OPU) on macroeconomic activity. We construct a new measure of OPU by extracting information on oil markets from 50 newspapers around the world using textual analysis techniques. Our index spikes around important historical events, such as the oil price shock of the 1970s and the supply glut of the 1980s. The effects of OPU on macroeconomic activity are captured using Bayesian vector autoregressive techniques. OPU is an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations in the US, with industrial production displaying a maximum estimated drop of 0.34% almost 10 months after impact. These negative effects are sharpened when monetary policy is constrained by the Zero-Lower Bound. OPU exerts an economically meaningful impact on global economic conditions and affects economic activity in other industrialized countries.

Oil price uncertainty, workplace misconduct, and cash holding

Using a novel and comprehensive dataset on penalties imposed by several US federal agencies for workplace law violations, we find that US firms are less likely to violate employee-related laws and receive associated penalties when oil price uncertainty (OPU) increases. This evidence results from two potential channels: precautionary motive and improved board monitoring. First, firms increase discretionary safety expenditure, and second, they increase the board of directors' involvement in the safety and compliance committee. Further, the evidence is not stemmed from other alternatives, such as reduced production or employment. A firm reduces workplace misconduct more when it is financially constrained, incurs a higher cost of goods sold, and belongs to the energy industry. Our results are robust to endogeneity concerns and alternative OPU measurements. Moreover, we document that the positive effect of oil price uncertainty on cash holdings is attenuated if firms reduce workplace violations and associated penalties.

Oil price uncertainty and the cost of debt: Evidence from the Chinese bond market

This paper explores the impact of oil price uncertainty affects the cost of debt in China. By analyzing the bond data from 2008 to 2019 in China, we find that oil price fluctuation boost bond offering spread, denoting that oil price uncertainty may increase the cost of debt. This increase is likely due to higher default risks resulting from the heightened oil price uncertainty. Moreover, non-state-owned firms and those in the energy industry are more susceptible to the effects of oil price volatility. Our findings also reveal an asymmetric effect of oil price uncertainty on the cost of debt, with a stronger impact observed from positive uncertainty compared to negative uncertainty. This study contributes to the current understanding of the ways in which oil price uncertainty impacts the cost of debt in an emerging country.

Racial and ethnic disparities in unemployment and oil price uncertainty

This study investigates the effect of oil price uncertainty on unemployment rates by race and ethnicity. Oil price uncertainty is measured by using two alternative approaches: (1) implied oil price option volatility and (2) a structural vector autoregression with multivariate GARCH-in-Mean with the errors distributed multivariate-t. The findings indicate that increased oil price uncertainty strongly increases unemployment rates, with the magnitude of the effect much larger for Blacks and Hispanics than for Whites. The effect is economically significant, with an average drag of oil price uncertainty on the total unemployment rate of about 13 basis points, and about 35 basis during episodes of high uncertainty. The effect on Black and Hispanic unemployment rates is about twice as large. Among teenagers, the effects of uncertainty on unemployment rates is much more pronounced, led by Black teens, Hispanics teens and White teens. Robustness results using implied oil price option volatility after controlling for news-based measures of policy uncertainty further confirms our results. Additional analysis along gender lines reveals that the response of male unemployment rates to oil price uncertainty shocks tends to be larger in magnitude than the response for female unemployment rates of the same race or ethnicity. Overall, the results suggest that uncertainty not only suppresses employment, but that uncertainty also worsens racial disparities in employment.

Impact of oil price uncertainty shocks on China’s macro-economy

This study investigates the impacts of crude oil price uncertainty shocks on China’s macro-economy using empirical and theoretical approaches. The vector auto-regression with stochastic volatility in mean (VAR-SVM) model reveals that increasing oil price uncertainty significantly depresses output and raises inflation. To fully understand the transmission channels of oil price uncertainty shocks, we develop a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that incorporates oil demand of household, intermediate sector, and transportation sector. Increasing income uncertainty induced by high oil price volatility leads to enhanced precautionary saving and thus a decrease in consumption, particularly durable consumption, of individual households. The precautionary working mechanism is plausible in the changes of households’ labor supply and firms’ production behaviors when oil price uncertainty increases. Furthermore, with decreasing forward-looking market demand, intermediate firms choose higher prices to avert risk, which results in higher inflation in China. To explore how to mitigate the negative effects of oil price uncertainty, we consider a number of possible factors. The results illustrate that increasing competitiveness among transportation firms, reducing oil intensity of intermediate sector, targeting headline inflation by the central bank, and decreasing the Frisch elasticity of labor supply are effective measures. Our findings also suggest that deregulation of refined oil price in China would not amplify negative effects of oil price uncertainty.

A Real Options Analysis of the Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty and Carbon Taxes on the Optimal Timing of Oil Field Decommissioning

We use a real options model to examine the effects of three important sources of oil price uncertainty on the optimal timing of oil field decommissioning. These are (1) the degree of oil price volatility, (2) the level of the long-run equilibrium oil price, and (3) the speed of reversion of oil prices to their long-run equilibrium. We find that lower levels of equilibrium oil prices and speed of reversion to equilibrium prices have the effect of fostering early decommissioning. Oil price volatility however has the opposite effect. Our findings provide valuable insights into how policymakers may identify windows of opportunity for policy interventions leading to (1) an acceleration of the drive towards sustainable energy transition; and/or (2) the maximisation of economic recovery (MER) from oil and gas resources.With regards the former, we show that the imposition of carbon taxes fosters early decommissioning to a significant extent. In the most unfavourable oil price environment and under an aggressive tax regime for example, decommissioning may occur at a very early period in oil field operations, owing to over 45% of oil reserves being uneconomic to produce. The results highlight the effectiveness of carbon taxes as policy lever in jurisdictions that seek accelerated decarbonisation, climate change mitigation and energy transition goals.

Oil price uncertainty and stock price informativeness: Evidence from investment-price sensitivity in China

We study the effects of oil price uncertainty (OPU) on stock price informativeness based on investment-price sensitivity. Using Chinese stocks from 2008 to 2021, we find a negative relationship between OPU and the strength of Tobin's q (a standardized measure of prices) for predicting investment opportunities. This finding is likely due to the crowding out of informed investors rather than the financial constraints brought by a higher cost of capital. Investment-price sensitivity also decreases more among firms in less-competition, high sales volatility, and lower analysts' attention. What is more, the reduction in investment-price sensitivity is more concentrated in public utilities, agriculture & livestock, and industry instead of in real estate or commerce industries. These findings indicate that OPU decreases the acquisition of information related to firms, and consequently, price informativeness for future investment decisions.

HETEROGENEOUS DEPENDENCE OF OIL-FOOD PRICE DYNAMICS IN AFRICA'S NET OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES

The determinants of food prices have attracted sizeable debates among scholars over the last three decades. However, many of these studies ignore the possibility that the impact of oil prices on food prices could vary across the food price distribution. The paper employs a quantile regression technique to ascertain whether food prices respond to the potential heterogeneous impact of crude oil price changes in the six selected African net oil-exporting countries. The coefficient of negative oil price shocks in the panel OLS model is insignificant and positive at the 5% significance level. In contrast, the coefficient of positive oil price shocks significantly affects food prices for the chosen African countries. The quantile regression analysis's empirical findings highlight the diverse dependence effects of various ranges on food prices. All coefficients are non-significant across all quantiles for negative oil price shocks, a conclusion consistent with panel least squares estimate results. Besides, the findings prove that positive changes in oil prices significantly affect the magnitude of food prices in selected African countries. The article concludes that the influence of crude oil price variations on food prices is diverse and positive across quantiles for a subset of Africa's net oil-exporting countries. The findings of this study could have a crucial policy and economic implications for economic agents and stakeholders in diverse fiscal environments. As a result, economic agents must make timely decisions to respond to the effects of oil price uncertainty on Africa's food market.

The effect of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment in the presence of growth options: Evidence from listed companies in China (1998–2019)

We empirically investigate the effect of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment in the presence of growth options using the financial data of listed firms in China from 1998 to 2019. We reveal three key findings in this paper. First, we find that oil price uncertainty has a U-shaped nonlinear effect on corporate investment. In periods of low uncertainty, oil price uncertainty negatively influences corporate investment. However, in periods of high uncertainty, oil price uncertainty positively influences corporate investment. Second, research has found that the U-shaped nonlinear effect is moderated by the irreversibility and growth opportunities of investment decisions. Third, further analyses reveal that this U-shaped nonlinear effect can be changed by a firm’s characteristics. Specifically, this nonlinear effect can only be observed in non-state-owned enterprises and small firms. We test the robustness of our findings and propose several policy suggestions.

Volatility spillovers across financial markets: the role of oil price uncertainty

ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the state-dependent volatility transmission mechanism between oil, stock, dollar, and bond prices to further examine the role of oil price uncertainty in financial markets. To this end, we extend the Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) spillover framework by incorporating a Markov-switching model and a Bayesian MCMC algorithm. We find that oil prices spills the highest degree of volatility to other markets during crises. The interdependence between the stock and oil markets is solid and stable, regardless of the regime shift. In contrast, the effect of oil price uncertainty on the foreign exchange or bond market during crises is double that during non-crisis periods. This suggests that oil price is closely related to other asset classes and reinforces its role as a risk transmitter during a crisis.

Oil price uncertainty and corporate cash holdings: Global evidence

This study investigates the effects of oil price uncertainty on corporate cash holdings using large international publicly listed firms from 89 countries for the period 1990–2017. Building on the precautionary motive of cash and the trade-off theory, we argue that the oil price uncertainty has a significant impact on corporate cash holdings and this impact is nonlinear. First, we find that oil price volatility is positively associated with corporate cash holdings. However, we then find evidence that shows that the association between oil volatility and cash holdings exhibits a U-shape. Finally, we present evidence that the positive relationship between oil price uncertainty and corporate cash holdings is more pronounced in firms operating in oil-exporting countries and in oil-exposed industries. Overall, our findings support our predictions and are robust to multiple robustness tests.

Oil price uncertainty, corporate governance and firm performance

We investigate whether oil price uncertainty affects Chinese firms' operating performances and the moderating role of corporate governance practices in this relationship. Using a sample of 2,696 Chinese listed firms from 2007 to 2019, we find that oil price uncertainty negatively affects Chinese firms’ operating performances. Notably, the negative effect is statistically significant in the aggregate market and the energy-related sector but not in the non-energy-related sector. Furthermore, managerial incentives can help firms mitigate the adverse effect of oil price uncertainty, whereas managerial monitoring cannot.

The effects of oil price uncertainty on China’s economy

This paper studies the effects of world oil price uncertainty on China’s economy from both empirical and theoretical angles. First, we use a vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility in mean to explore the relation between world oil price uncertainty and real economic activity of China. We find that one standard deviation higher uncertainty shock of world oil price reduces electricity production by almost 0.2 percentage. Then we use a canonical New-Keynesian model solved by third-order perturbation method to explain this phenomenon, in which households’ precautionary saving channel distresses real activity when oil price uncertainty is higher.

Nexus between oil price uncertainty and corporate social responsibility: evidence from US firms

PurposeThis paper examines the effect of oil price uncertainty on corporate social responsibility (CSR) for 507 US firms over the period 1985–2019.Design/methodology/approachTo investigate the nexus between oil price uncertainty and CSR, we have proceeded with a fixed-effects panel regression model over the period 1985–2019.FindingsUsing a dataset of 507 US firms, different specifications of CSR and two alternatives measures of oil price uncertainty, we show that oil price uncertainty negatively influences the CSR in the global US panel and firm's characterized panel. This negative effect is dependent on firms' size, firm's age and value of book share of firms.Research limitations/implicationsUS firms are exposed to more risk when carrying high levels of debt, resulting in reduced spending to improve social and environmental conditions. While the negative effect of oil price uncertainty on CSR is exacerbated in economic crisis periods.Practical implicationsUS firms are influenced by energy price volatility especially by oil price fluctuations which are the main factor of American economic growth. The rise of oil price uncertainty reduces sustainable corporate development and investment in the green economy.Social implicationsRethinking renewable energies as an alternative solution in order to guarantee the performance and sustainability of social, environmental and cultural activities.Originality/valueYoung and small firms, lower-share outstanding firms and high book value per share firms are the most negatively affected by oil price uncertainty and therefore their social responsibilities are reduced. However, by introducing interaction variables in the main model, we find that the most indebted firms on one hand and big firms and high-number shares outstanding firms, on the other hand, are the most influenced by oil price uncertainty which consequently limits their social and environmental responsibility.

Cash holdings and oil price uncertainty exposures

This paper investigates the role of cash holdings in controlling the negative risk from oil price uncertainty. We develop a dynamic model and find that firms with oil-linked assets in place are more likely to experience cash flow shortfalls, which affect their future investments and lead to additional costs and losses. We define these potential costs and losses as negative oil price uncertainty exposures. Firms with negative oil price uncertainty exposures must hold cash in case such costs and losses are realized. Further analysis shows that the relationship between oil price uncertainty exposures and cash holdings is heterogeneous with respect to firm-specific characteristics. An additional unit of cash holding is more valuable to firms with severe financial constraints or low existing liabilities because it increases the firm's ability to counter the adverse effects of oil price uncertainty. Using a sample of all non-state-owned, A-share listed manufacturing firms in China from 2008 to 2018, we find data that support the implications of our model.