Effects Of Monetary Policy Shocks Research Articles

Cross-country differences in the effects of monetary policy shocks on output and prices and their determinants

On the basis of a sample of 19 countries and using sign-restricted VAR and second-stage regression, this research investigates whether there exist differences in the effects of monetary shocks on output and prices between countries, and, if any, which country characteristics incur such differences. The VAR analysis shows that monetary policy shocks of the same magnitude generate differences in terms of the effects on output and prices between countries. The maximal responses of industrial production indexes to a 25-basis-point shock policy rate cut range from a decrease to an over 3% increase with an average of about 1–2% increase. Those of consumer price indexes range from 0.3% to around a 2% increase, with an average of 0.9% increase. The results from regression analysis imply that various country characteristics engender disparities in the responses to monetary policy shocks. The magnitude of the output responses to monetary policy shocks is larger in countries with a monetary policy framework closer to inflation-targeting, a more flexible exchange rate regime, more rapid population aging, and a more rigid labor market, and is smaller in countries with a more independent central bank and a more developed financial market. The size of the price responses is larger in countries with higher trade openness and a more rigid labor market, and smaller in countries with a monetary policy framework closer to inflation-targeting and more rapid population aging.

THE EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY SHOCK: EVIDENCE FROM SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT ECONOMIES

In the paper, we explore the effects of monetary policy shock on the economic growth in systemically important countries such as the US, the Euro Area and China and their impact on Ukraine. Thus, the war in Ukraine and the rise of key policy rates by central banks to curb inflation have had a significant negative impact on economic activity. There has been both a significant decrease in trade activity and a slowdown in the services sector growth, which was the main engine of global economic growth at the beginning of 2023. Based on the vector autoregression model results, we demonstrated a slight initial decline of GDP growth with following stabilization in response to the rise of key policy rates in the US. In China, this decline is much bigger and constitutes 11% after the shock. In the Euro Area, we also observe a similar pattern as in the US with an initial decline up to 2% and a further return to equilibrium. Analyzing the results of the forecast error variance decomposition, we should note that GDP fluctuations in systemically significant economies are mainly explained by their own fluctuations. The key policy rate’s contribution ranges from 1% in the US to 11% in China. At the same time, economic growth in China is less vulnerable to inflation fluctuations, in the Eurozone we observe the most sustained one among the considered economies. In addition, the study shows that the key policy rate in the United States has a positive effect on the one in Ukraine.

Macroeconomic impacts of monetary and fiscal policy in the euro area in times of shifting policies: A SVAR approach

This paper analyses the impacts of monetary and fiscal policy of the euro area on output and inflation between 2005 and 2022 using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) approach. We employ three alternative indicators of monetary policy, alongside government spending and revenue as fiscal variables to estimate the effects across different subperiods. The findings reveal that monetary policy tightening produces a negative and delayed effect on both output and inflation, with the effects differing across alternative monetary policy indicators in terms of duration and magnitude. A fiscal revenue shock is found to be inflationary, whereas a fiscal spending shock initially has a negative effect on growth that later turns positive, but is short-lived. The effects of fiscal policy shocks are more substantial than the effects of monetary policy shocks. The results also suggest that the effects may differ across subperiods, depending on the nature and intensity of the policy shifts.

Revisiting the Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks*

This study re‐evaluates the macroeconomic impact of monetary policy shocks in the United States using the proxy‐SVAR approach of Gertler and Karadi (American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2015, 7, 44–76). Despite increased credit costs and the presence of the credit channel, our analysis reveals modest effects on economic activity post‐mid‐1980s. This robust finding holds across various inference methods and sample considerations. A counterfactual analysis within the framework of Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999, Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier) suggests that a stronger response to inflation in monetary policy execution may explain the subdued impact of shocks, offering valuable insights for policy refinement and understanding the dynamics of economic activity.

China’s Monetary Policy Impacts on Money and Stock Markets

This study investigated the impact of China’s monetary policy on both the money market and stock markets, assuming that non-policy variables would not respond contemporaneously to changes in policy variables. Monetary policy adjustments are swiftly observed in money markets and gradually extend to the stock market. The study examined the effects of monetary policy shocks using three primary instruments: interest rate policy, reserve requirement ratio, and open market operations. Monthly data from 2007 to 2013 were analyzed using vector error correction (VEC) models. The findings suggest a likely presence of long-lasting and stable relationships among monetary policy, the money market, and stock markets. This research holds practical implications for Chinese policymakers, particularly in managing the challenges associated with fluctuation risks linked to high foreign exchange reserves, aiming to achieve autonomy in monetary policy and formulate effective monetary strategies to stimulate economic growth.

Impacts of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inflation and Output in New Zealand*

We identify monetary policy shocks in New Zealand as 1‐day changes in the whole yield curve around monetary policy announcements. The impacts of these shocks on inflation and output are estimated using functional local projections. We find that the effects of monetary policy shocks are standard in the short run but might be different in the long run. Monetary policy shocks in a small open economy have similar effects as in a large economy, except that unconventional monetary policy announcements have limited impact on long‐term interest rates. Accounting for forward guidance, used in New Zealand since 1997, is important.

Financial technologies and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission

This study investigates whether and how financial technologies (FinTech) influence the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. We use an interacted panel vector autoregression model to explore how the effects of monetary policy shocks change with regional-level FinTech adoption. Results indicate that FinTech adoption generally mitigates the transmission of monetary policy to real GDP, consumer prices, bank loans, and housing prices, with the most significant impact observed in the weakened transmission to bank loan growth. The relaxed financial constraints, regulatory arbitrage, and intensified competition are the possible mechanisms underlying the mitigated transmission.

Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in China

Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in China

What are the effects of monetary policy on productivity?

We assess the effects of monetary policy shocks on total factor productivity (TFP) using a cross-country panel of firm-level data. We find that monetary policy shocks have a significant effect on TFP: a 100 basis points contractionary monetary policy shock is associated with a 112 percent decline in TFP at a 6-year horizon. The effects of monetary policy shocks on TFP are stronger for financially constrained or vulnerable firms. Further, we find support for a credit channel transmission mechanism of monetary policy on TFP in that intangible investment reacts adversely to contractionary monetary policy shocks.

The effect of monetary policy shocks on industrial output in Afghanistan

Purpose- This study examines the impact of monetary policy shocks on industrial output in Afghanistan. Quarterly secondary data were collected for the period from 2003 to 2021 from various official sources such as the Statistical Bulletin of the Central Bank of Afghanistan, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank. Methodology- This study used a three-stage procedure. The first stage involved testing the stability of the variables to be included in the model. The second stage involves selecting the optimal lag length using various lag length criteria. Finally, the Vector Error Correction (VECM) model was used to determine if there were any short-run correlations or dynamics among the variables. The study also conducted some post-tests to confirm the validity and robustness of the regression model. Findings- The results of the long-run vector error correction model show that there is a long-run causality running from monetary policy rate, broad money supply, inflation, exchange rate, and a commercial bank loan to the industrial sector. So, there was a speed of adjustment from the short-run to the long-run equilibrium. However, the Wald test confirmed that the short-run causality runs from the explanatory variables to the dependent variable. Commercial bank credit to the industrial sector was found to cause a change in industrial production in all six lag periods. The results were further supported by the Granger causality test. Shocks in commercial bank lending to the industrial sector were found to have no significant effect on industrial output. However, the performance of the industrial sector was the main cause of the flow of commercial banks' credit to the industrial sector. Conclusion- The study recommends that monetary policy should proceed with extreme caution in managing the exchange rate. The study also recommends that the Central Bank of Afghanistan should encourage commercial banks to offer credit to the industrial sector at low-interest rates. Keywords: Monetary policy shocks, industrial output, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Granger Causality Test, Afghanistan. JEL Codes: E52, E32, L60

Is the exchange rate a shock absorber? The shocks matter

This paper provides a new perspective on the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and business cycle dynamics by focusing on the underlying macroeconomic shocks. We study how domestic and global macroeconomic shocks, which we identify using zero and sign restrictions, are transmitted through exchange rate adjustments in 8 small open economies. Based on a counterfactual analysis, we find that the capacity of the exchange rate to absorb business cycle fluctuations depends on the underlying shock and differs across the short and the medium run. Following domestic aggregate demand shocks, endogenous exchange rate dynamics stabilize real GDP, primarily in the short run, and inflation dynamics over the medium run, while they amplify the effects of monetary policy shocks. Following domestic aggregate supply as well as global shocks the exchange rate exerts only small effects.

Assessment of the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks from ECOWAS Member Countries to Nigeria

The paper evaluated the effects of monetary policy shocks from ECOWAS Member Countries to Nigeria using a combination of quarterly, annual time-series and panel data spanning from 1995–2021. The Standard Global Vector-Autoregressive (GVAR) Model of analysis was used to draw structural inference for the study using data on: consumer prices, international commodity prices (oil, agricultural raw material and metal ore), exchange rate, interest rate (short and long run), real output, money supply, and export diversification index. The result of the Impulse Response Function (IRF) revealed that shocks resulting from monetary policy transmission from the ECOWAS member Countries to Nigeria has diverse effects on Nigeria and is largely determined by the extent of monetary policy accommodative stance. The shock that may occur is likely to be country-specific because ECOWAS is an economic union that hardly has the foundation to share common economic or monetary risk. Additionally, the extent of trade flow between Nigeria and the rest of ECOWAS, determines the tendency that such shocks affect Nigeria. Finally, whether ECOWAS is a shock source, or a channel of transmission determines how much of an impact shocks from that region will have.

U.S. MONETARY POLICY AND SOVEREIGN CDS MARKETS

This paper analyzes the effects of U.S. monetary policy on sovereign credit default swap (CDS) markets in a total of 66 countries including both advanced and emerging market economies at the monthly time horizon from 2001 to 2016. We employ a four-variable vector autoregression (VAR) model to estimate the monetary policy shock and examine the pass-through of U.S. monetary policy shocks to sovereign CDS markets. We find that the effect of monetary policy shocks on CDS markets is strong, especially during the European sovereign debt crisis and the period the U.S. monetary policy rate was near zero. Our analysis indicates that expansionary U.S. monetary policy leads to the widening of the sovereign credit spreads and the heightening of the CDS market volatility.

Measuring Monetary Policy in the Euro Area Using SVARs with Residual Restrictions

This study measures the effects of monetary policy in the euro area using a small number of sign and magnitude restrictions on the residuals of a structural vector autoregression. We derive the dates and directions of these shocks from high-frequency financial market data around official European Central Bank policy announcements. Based on an in-depth narrative analysis and a comparison of the results with those of a standard high-frequency approach, we argue that our approach is purged from central bank information effects. Despite our rather agnostic identification strategy, we find clear and conclusive effects of monetary policy shocks on a wide range of macroeconomic variables. (JEL C32, E43, E44, E52, E58, F33, G14)

Asymmetric effects of monetary policy and financial accelerator: Evidence from India

This paper analyzes the asymmetric effects of monetary policy shocks during low and high financial stress regimes in India. We explore the asymmetric effects through various monetary policy transmission channels, namely, interest rate, credit, asset prices, exchange rate, and expectations channels, using threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) models. Financial Stress Index (FSI) is used in the TVAR estimations as the threshold variable that endogenizes the regime-switching. We use a compressive FSI based on the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH) method. The empirical findings indicate that a contractionary monetary policy shock through various channels has a stronger and more persistent effect on macroeconomic goal variables, output, and inflation during high financial stress than in a low financial stress regime. An expansionary monetary policy shock also shows a more significant effect on output during a high financial stress regime. Also, we found a stronger financial accelerator effect during high financial stress. This finding supports the literature that argues for the emergence of a stronger financial accelerator effect during financial stress. Finally, using nonlinear historical decompositions, we find that interest rate shocks contribute significantly to macroeconomic fluctuations in India.

Testing the Validity of the Quantity Theory of Money on Sectoral Data: Non-Linear Evidence from South Africa

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to test the validity of the quantity theory of money (QTM) on South African sectoral data. The rationale of this study and its necessity for South Africa as the case study is that, although aggregate inflation may lie within the target range, inflation at a sectoral level, particularly in the food and transport sector, is still a matter of concern in South Africa. Methodology/approach: This study employed the Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lagged model (NARDL) to assess potential asymmetries in the effect of money supply to differentiate between the effects of contractional and expansional episodes on inflation at the sectoral level. Quarterly time series data spanning from 2002Q2 to 2021Q2 was utilised for the estimation. Ultimately, the causal effect amongst the variables is examined by employing the Pairwise Granger Causality test. Findings: The results suggest that in the short run, the effect of monetary policy shocks is very weak. On the other hand, in the long run, both negative and positive shocks in the money supply push inflation at the sectoral level in the opposite directions, and positive shocks (expansionary monetary policy) have a greater effect than negative shocks, which renders the QTM invalid in South Africa. The sectoral response was found to be heterogeneous in the long run, and this was also backed by the results of the Granger Causality test and the dynamic multipliers. Asymmetry in the effect of the money supply is assessed in some of the sectors only in the long run. Practical implications: Based on the results, this study confirms great discrepancies in sectoral responses. Therefore, aggregate inflation may not be a good indicator of the inflation path in South Africa, as it may underestimate sectoral variations. Originality/value: The originality of this study lies on testing the validity of the QTM on inflation at the sectoral level in the South African context using a non-linear approach to assess potential asymmetry between the effects of expansionary and contractionary episodes of monetary policy shocks.

Monetary policy transmission in Sri Lanka

ABSTRACT Sri Lanka’s monetary policy has evolved differently during and after a three-decade-long ethnic conflict. This paper empirically investigates effects of monetary policy shocks on Sri Lankan economy with particular focus on the strength of credit and exchange rate channels using a VAR model for 2003–2019 period. We find that: (i) monetary policy shocks have a significant and persistent impact on key macroeconomic variables even though several puzzling results emerge; (ii) the effects of monetary policy shocks are significant and more persistent in the post-conflict period than in the conflict period; (iii) a tight monetary policy effectively contains inflation in the post-conflict period; and (iv) interest rate and exchange rate channels play a dominant role while the credit channel responds with some lags in the post-conflict period.

Vintage article: the effect of monetary policy shocks in the UK: an external instruments approach

AbstractThis paper uses vector autoregression model analysis to identify monetary policy shocks on UK data using surprise changes in the policy rate as external instruments and imposing block exogeneity restrictions on domestic variables to estimate parameters from the viewpoint of the domestic economy. The results show large and persistent effects of monetary policy shocks on the domestic economy and point to the critical role of exchange rates and term premia. The analysis resolves important empirical puzzles of traditional recursive identification methods.

Alternative Analysis of Bank Lending Channel in Turkey After 2010

Traditional bank lending channel in the monetary transmission explains the relationship between monetary policies of Central Banks and the bank lending behavior. In this article, the existence of traditional bank lending channel and an alternative analysis of bank lending in the monetary transmission of Turkey is investigated between 2011 and 2018 using bank level data and GMM method. Additionally, we indicate whether the reaction of banks differ according to their bank specific caharacteristics. Asset quality, capital adequacy, liquidity ratio, asset size and profitability rates are used as bank characteristics. Since Central Bank of Turkey began to use multiple monetary policy tools to cope with financial stability issues at the end of 2010, the choice of an indicator for the monetary policy is important. In this article, we revise the analysis of bank lending view as the key assumptions of traditional bank lending are not valid. Different from prior research, to analyze the change in credit supply we use both monetary policy rates and actual interest rates (BISTREPO and weighted average cost of Central Bank of Turkish Republic) as monetary policy indicators. Using monetary policy rates, our findings indicate that traditional bank lending channel does not work. Using BISTREPO as monetary policy indicator, our findings indicate that it is significant in the credit supply change. Taking the bank characteristics into account only bank size is significant in mitigating the negative effects of monetary policy shocks. This finding shows that banks that have larger asset size may find different funding alternatives and continue to lend during monetary policy shocks. Additionally, when weighted average cost of the CBTR funding are used as a monetary policy indicator, our findings show that this rate is also significant in the credit supply change and similar to prior results higher bank size may mitigate the negative effects of monetary policy shocks.

The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inflation Heterogeneity: The Case of Korea

The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inflation Heterogeneity: The Case of Korea