Effects Of Major Changes Research Articles

Occupational Risk Assessment for Flight Schools: A 3,4-Quasirung Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making-Based Approach

The concept of occupational risk assessment is related to the analysis and prioritization of the hazards arising in a production or service facility and the risks associated with these hazards; risk assessment considers occupational health and safety (OHS). Elimination or reduction to an acceptable level of analyzed risks, which is a systematic and proactive process, is then put into action. Although fuzzy logic-related decision models related to the assessment of these risks have been developed and applied a lot in the literature, there is an opportunity to develop novel occupational risk assessment models depending on the development of new fuzzy logic extensions. The 3,4-quasirung fuzzy set (3,4-QFS) is a new type of fuzzy set theory emerged as an extension of the Pythagorean fuzzy sets and Fermatean fuzzy sets. In this approach, the sum of the cube of the degree of membership and the fourth power of the degree of non-membership must be less than or equal to 1. Since this new approach has a wider space, it can express uncertain information in a more flexible and exhaustive way. This makes this type of fuzzy set applicable in addressing many problems in multi-criteria decision making (MCDM). In this study, an occupational risk assessment approach based on 3,4-quasirung fuzzy MCDM is presented. Within the scope of the study, the hazards pertaining to the flight and ground training, training management, administrative and facilities in a flight school were assessed and prioritized. The results of existing studies were tested, and we considered both Pythagorean and Fermatean fuzzy aggregation operators. In addition, by an innovative sensitivity analysis, the effect of major changes in the weight of each risk parameter on the final priority score and ranking of the hazards was evaluated. The outcomes of this study are beneficial for OHS decision-makers by highlighting the most prioritized hazards causing serious occupational accidents in flights schools as part of aviation industry. The approach can also be suggested and adapted for production and service science environments where their occupational health & safety are highly required.

COVID-19 PANDEMIC EXPERIENCE IN THE UNITED KINGDOM – A NATIONAL SURVEY ABOUT CARDIAC CASES, WORK PATTERNS OF CARDIAC ANAESTHETISTS AND SUPPORT

IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic started in Hubei Province, China in 2019 with the first confirmed cases in the UK in January 2020. On May 21st 2020, there were 158,488 confirmed cases in England and Wales with 33,081 deaths in SARS-CoV-2 positive patients (1). From March 2020 onwards, emergency cardiac operations were prioritised and individual work patterns adjusted. The skill set of cardiac anaesthetists, often including an expertise in critical care medicine, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and echocardiography, was useful for the multidisciplinary medical care of COVID-19 patients in critical care units. The aim of this survey was to assess individual cardiac anaesthetic experiences during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK.MethodsWe conducted a survey, supported by the Association for Cardiothoracic Anaesthesia and Critical Care (ACTACC). A 16-question survey related to the first UK COVID-19 surge in April and May 2020 was sent to the membership of ACTACC in 36 cardiac centres in July 2020. Data was collected and collated using the web-based survey platform “Survey Monkey” (Palo Alto, CA).ResultsThere were 80 completed responses, indicating a response rate of about 20%. The majority of anaesthetists continued cardiac anaesthesia with emergency cases (53%) and urgent cases (65%) only at their centres. Every 5th cardiac anaesthetist (22%) was re-deployed to a different unit in their hospital or to a different hospital. The clinical work pattern changed at least moderately for the majority of cardiac anaesthetists (86%). The majority of anaesthetists (90%) felt appropriately supported when they stepped outside of their usual clinical role during the pandemic and 95% felt that their existing skillset was appropriately used. The workload increased in a majority of cardiac anaesthetists (53%), but it also decreased for some (35%). Non-resident on-calls increased for about 1/3 (36%) of respondents and resident on-calls increased for 50% of cardiac anaesthetists. A majority of anaesthetists (85%) wore PPE during their clinical work and 95% felt that the supply of PPE was adequate. The most useful source of information during the pandemic was peer discussion, chosen by more than half of cardiac anaesthetists (54%).DiscussionThe results of this national survey for cardiac anaesthetists during the first COVID-19 wave in the UK demonstrate that work patterns for cardiac anaesthetists changed dramatically. These changes may have an effect on psychological wellbeing of cardiac anaesthetists (2). However, the majority of anaesthetists felt well supported in their clinical work. Peer discussions scored high as useful sources of information, suggesting that professional networks are crucial to both, personal wellbeing and good patient care. One limitation of this survey is a low response rate, with potentially more extreme experiences in the non-responder group, emphasising the importance of support measures and the challenge of gauging that they are effective.We conclude, that with subsequent COVID-19 peaks, there is a continued need to address potential effects of major changes of work patterns by cardiac anaesthetists on burnout, psychological wellbeing and resilience.

ANALYSIS OF THE IVF LABORATORY KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (KPIs) IN IVF PATIENTS WITH DIFFERENT OVULATION TRIGGER REGIMENS

There are few published studies that report on the practical application and utility of IVF laboratory KPIs in identifying performance shifts in response to changes in laboratory processes. There are even fewer reports on the potential effects of major changes in patient clinical management upon laboratory quality indicators.The aim of this study is to collect and analyze our IVF laboratory KPIs based on the two newly adopted ovulation trigger regimens during controlled ovarian hyper-stimulation treatment.

How analytics is used in forecasting

Over the last decade, the science of forecasting has adopted the tools of the data scientist. Prediction today combines traditional demand planning models with the standard tools of machine learning. The result is much improved accuracy over the short term and an enhanced ability to account for the effects of major changes in the economic environment. On the flipside, researchers must now sort through much greater volumes of data in order to identify what might be useful to produce accurate forecasts. The application of machine learning solves what could be a major stumbling block here. So-called ‘data consolidators’ are now emerging to support forecasters by providing access to previously unknown data as well as the tools for using such data creatively. This paper will demonstrate how data from data consolidators may be used by analytics algorithms to improve the accuracy of forecasts.

Semi-automatic mapping of dyke and dyke-related fractures using UAV-based photogrammetric data: A case study from Sijiao Island, coastal Southeastern China

Mapping dyke and dyke-related fractures is important for magma propagation and emplacement mechanisms analysis. Here, we propose a semi-automatic workflow for dyke and fracture mapping using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based photogrammetric data. Our workflow integrates mean-shift and GrabCut in one cut (GCOC) algorithms to segment dykes, and harnesses the phase symmetry algorithm and a series of follow-up actions to detect fractures. Sijiao Island of Zhejiang Province (SE China) is examined as a case study to validate the approaches. With our workflow, the generated dyke map attains more than a 97% recall rate when compared with the results of expert interpretation, and the ratio of the number of detected false fracture segments to the number of total segments is less than 18%. The dyke strike and fracture strike calculation match well with field measurements. Moreover, by combining visual interpretation and the resulting geometric information, our results manifest that dyke magma invaded along pre-existing fractures to form dykes on Sijiao Island, and the difference between dyke fractures and host rock fractures may be because of the effect of major changes of regional stress. This workflow has great potential for high-resolution terrestrial mapping.

Television in Australia: capitals, tastes, practices and platforms

This article discusses the findings of a national survey of the social organisation of television viewing practices in contemporary Australia. These questions are addressed through multiple correspondence analyses of the aspects of television practices and tastes covered in the survey. These go beyond channel and genre preferences to include a sample of Australian and overseas produced television programmes and of 10 Australian TV personalities. The differential distribution of tastes across Australian and overseas programmes also throws significant light on different investments in the national culture across different social groups. The survey data also includes evidence regarding viewing platform and device preferences. In concluding, the article reviews the evidence of a cluster analysis, registering the effects of major changes within the television field in Australia, including the decline of free-to-air and ‘linear’ viewing, the rise of streaming services and the erosion of brand loyalty as it relates to television channels.

Long-term effect of sheep and goat grazing on plant diversity in a semi-natural dry grassland habitat

Semi-natural dry grassland sites are of great importance for nature conservation because they support high species diversity and the abundance of “Red-List” species. Grazing has proved to be a successful management tool in terms of maintenance and restoration of biodiversity. For a deeper understanding of the effects of different grazers on species biodiversity in dry grasslands, it is necessary to study the long-term effects of major changes in grazing management. In a semi-natural dry grassland habitat, which was formerly grazed by cattle, we investigated the changes in plant species composition due to long term grazing by sheep and goats. Specifically we asked: a) How does long-term grazing by sheep and goats change the composition of all plant species and particularly those that are on the Red-List? Are changes caused mainly by species turnover? b) How does long-term grazing by sheep and goats influence the fertility and acidity of the soil? To address these questions, we compared the composition and diversity of plants as well deriving Ellenberg indicator values of the species. Long-term grazing by sheep and goats subsequent to a year-round cattle grazing changed the plant species composition of the dry grasslands resulting in a high species turnover rate. It did not, however, lead to an increase in plant species diversity even though Red-List species were considerably more abundant in 2013. Overall, the grazing regime studied positively influenced vegetation composition. The effects on local species composition due to species turnover might further be influenced by local factors like soil nitrogen availability.

A global assessment of the carbon cycle and temperature responses to major changes in future fire regime

Changes in the current fire regime would directly affect carbon cycling, land–atmosphere exchanges, and atmospheric composition, and could therefore modulate the ongoing climate warming. We used a coupled climate–carbon model to quantify the effect of major changes in non-deforestation fires on the global carbon cycle and temperature, from 2015 to 2300. When considering only CO2 fire emissions, the impacts from changes in fire frequency were limited for the global carbon cycle, and almost negligible for the global atmospheric surface temperature. The net fire emissions were only a fraction of the CO2 directly emitted during combustion due to vegetation regrowth and climate–CO2 feedbacks, and the albedo increases caused by changes in vegetation cover countered the effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on global temperature. When employing a simplified approach based on global-mean radiative forcings in order to estimate the impact of non-CO2 fire emissions, the effect of increased fire frequency on global temperature depended critically on the uncertain net aerosol forcing. Despite this major uncertainty, our results overall do not support the hypothesis of a strong positive climate–fire feedback for the coming centuries.

Responding to information about children in adversity: Ten years of a differential response model in Western Australia

This article uses a comprehensive database about children in adversity collected over the 16-year period from 1990 to 2005 in the state of Western Australia. The focus of this interrogation is the effect of major changes in responses to information about children brought to the attention of the Western Australian statutory authority in a 10-year period during this 16 years. The initiative for these changes was termed New Directions, and its associated policy and practice changes were aimed at differentiating information expressing concerns about children and families from allegations of child maltreatment. They emphasized the provision of supportive and empowering services to families experiencing difficulties – a form of differential response to children in adversity. The article covers the period leading up to the policy and practice change and the 10 years during which these changes were implemented. It examines some effects of the new policy and comments on whether the changes resulted in missed opportunities to protect children from harm, which in turn, might have led to higher rates of re-reporting. The authors present an overall picture of the nature of the information accepted by the statutory authority and how the interpretation of that information might have affected subsequent outcomes for children. In doing so, it shows that the policy and consequential practice changes associated with a differential response mechanism had long lasting positive effects that, despite dire warnings, did not compromise the protection of the small group of children identified as requiring protective interventions.

The Effects of Major Change: A Case Study in an Australian University

The current context of higher education is dynamic with various demands for change. Among catalysts for change are competition, market orientation, globalisation and technology. Nevertheless, the fact is, implementing major change in higher education is not an easy task. Higher education as an entity is unique unlike business organisations. A university has distinctive fundamental characters and practices such as the presence of diverse and ambiguous objectives and semi-autonomous organisational structures. Another issue is the presence of the human factor. In this aspect, the problems, views, experiences and knowledge of faculty members need to be taken into account. All these aspects may contribute to the success of the major change. Yet, some might also resist change. In this light, literature has shown that organisational change impacts individuals of the organization and vice versa. In addition, an imposed change may create negative emotions such as fear of losing something important, anger and anxiety. On the other hand, planned change may be accompanied by excitement and hope. In all these developments, literature has shown that studies on post change era are scarce. This is interesting because scholars have argued that post change era is an important time since it determines the success and failure of the change. This paper is about the effects of major change in an Australian university. Major change is defined as an amalgamation in a higher institution. In this case study, interviews were carried out to extract experiences of leaders and co-workers who had lived through the major change. These multi perspectives provide a rich description of the why, how and what aspects of the major change that may prove useful to leaders and staff of an academic organisation. The paper ends with some suggestions on improving institutional amalgamation.

Nursing activities, nurse staffing and adverse patient outcomes as perceived by hospital nurses

To investigate the relationships between nursing activities, nurse staffing and adverse patient outcomes in hospital settings as perceived by registered nurses in Finland and the Netherlands and to compare the results obtained in the two countries. Previous research indicates that a higher proportion of registered nurses in the staff mix results in better patient outcomes. Knowledge of the relationship between nurse staffing and adverse patient outcomes is crucial to optimise the management of professional nursing resources and patient care. A cross-sectional, descriptive questionnaire survey. Registered nurses employed in hospitals in Finland (n = 535) and the Netherlands (n = 334), with overall response rates of 44·9% and 33·4%, respectively, participated. The patient-to-nurse ratio was on average 8·74:1 and did not vary significantly between the countries. However, there were fewer registered nurses and significantly more licensed practical nurses among the Dutch hospital staff than the Finnish staff. In addition, Finnish nurses performed non-nursing and administrative activities more frequently than the Dutch nurses and reported more dissatisfaction with the availability of support services. Frequencies of patient falls were related to the patient-to-nurse ratio in both countries. Finnish participants reported the occurrence of adverse patient outcomes more frequently. Significant associations were found between nurse staffing and adverse patient outcomes in hospital settings. Compared with the Netherlands, in Finland, nurses appear to have higher workloads, there are higher patient-to-nurse ratios, and these adverse staffing conditions are associated with higher rates of adverse patient outcomes. The findings provide valuable insights into the potential effects of major changes or reductions in nursing staff on the occurrence of adverse patient outcomes in hospital settings.

When Bill Gates becomes innkeeper to Eros and Thanatos

Summary This article is a reflection on the effect of major changes in a number of environments on the evolution of sexuality in young people. The family environment, in particular, is undergoing a restructuring, and the growing number of broken and blended families has led to new realities with which young people must cope. The staggering development of the Internet is also part of the overall picture: some of them appear to have developed a different relationship to sexuality as a result of the modification of relational guidelines, which is not without consequence. Distortions may therefore occur under the influence of changes in the way relationships develop — or, indeed, are limited — and increased exposure to explicit sexual or violent material. It is however important to not lose sight of the fact that most young people view the Internet as a means of exploring the world and of entering into relationships with other young people. Vulnerable young people may be more affected by exposure to explicit violent or sexual material found on the Internet. In any event, parents and researchers will undoubtedly be called upon to deconstruct the sexual and violent imagery communicated through these new media, particularly for vulnerable populations; it will require great adroitness to avoid being or appearing overly controlling in these situations. The object of the exercise is to integrate these new parameters into educational and clinical interventions and into research programs.

A comparison of methods for calculating Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) of gill net catches in lakes

Fish constitute an important component of lake ecosystems and many different methods have been used for fish assessment. Based on gill net catches in two stratified (max depth = 14–22 m) eutrophic Danish lakes, relative fish abundance measured as Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) was calculated. We used three different methods of which two followed the European standard based on benthic nets (CEN (European Committee for Standardization), 2005: EN 14757. Water quality – Sampling of fish with multi-mesh gill nets. Brussels, 27 pp.), one assuming equal volumes in all depth strata and the other using calculated volumes in the depth strata. The third method followed a modified CEN standard, adopted as a new Danish (DK) standardized method based on calculated benthic and pelagic water volumes and by including both benthic nets and, compared to the CEN standard, an increased fishing effort with pelagic nets. Fish were concentrated in the littoral/benthic part of the upper two depth strata (0–6 m depth) with an up to 8 fold higher abundance than in the pelagic. Calculated CPUE is highly sensitive to the morphometry of the lakes. In lakes with extreme morphometry (unequal volumes in depth strata) it is important to use calculated water volumes for the depth strata. By including information derived from the pelagic nets, total lake CPUEs were 42–56% lower than CPUE values based on benthic nets only. We further show that the relative contribution of CPUE between habitats changes markedly with the nutrient level in 12 deep lakes. It is concluded that for deep lakes it is of key importance to include pelagic nets when comparing fish assemblages and abundances among lakes and when evaluating effects of major changes in key environmental factors, such as nutrient loading and climate.

Torneträsk tree-ring width and density ad 500–2004: a test of climatic sensitivity and a new 1500-year reconstruction of north Fennoscandian summers

This paper presents updated tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum density (MXD) from Tornetrask in northern Sweden, now covering the period ad 500-2004. By including data from relatively young trees for the most recent period, a previously noted decline in recent MXD is eliminated. Non-climatological growth trends in the data are removed using Regional Curve Standardization (RCS), thus producing TRW and MXD chronologies with preserved low-frequency variability. The chronologies are calibrated using local and regional instrumental climate records. A bootstrapped response function analysis using regional climate data shows that tree growth is forced by April-August temperatures and that the regression weights for MXD are much stronger than for TRW. The robustness of the reconstruction equation is verified by independent temperature data and shows that 63-64% of the instrumental inter-annual variation is captured by the tree-ring data. This is a significant improvement compared to previously published reconstructions based on tree-ring data from Tornetrask. A divergence phenomenon around ad 1800, expressed as an increase in TRW that is not paralleled by temperature and MXD, is most likely an effect of major changes in the density of the pine population at this northern tree-line site. The bias introduced by this TRW phenomenon is assessed by producing a summer temperature reconstruction based on MXD exclusively. The new data show generally higher temperature estimates than previous reconstructions based on Tornetrask tree-ring data. The late-twentieth century, however, is not exceptionally warm in the new record: On decadal-to-centennial timescales, periods around ad 750, 1000, 1400, and 1750 were equally warm, or warmer. The 200-year long warm period centered on ad 1000 was significantly warmer than the late-twentieth century (p < 0.05) and is supported by other local and regional paleoclimate data. The new tree-ring evidence from Tornetrask suggests that this “Medieval Warm Period” in northern Fennoscandia was much warmer than previously recognized.

Are Protective Labor Market Institutions at the Root of Unemployment? A Critical Review of the Evidence

A rapidly expanding empirical literature has addressed the widely accepted claim that employment-unfriendly labor market institutions explain the pattern of unemployment across countries. The main culprits are held to be protective institutions, namely unemployment benefit entitlements, employment protection laws, and trade unions. Our assessment of the evidence offers little support for this orthodox view. The most compelling finding of the cross-country regression literature is the generally significant and robust effect of the standard measure of unemployment benefit generosity, but there are reasons to doubt both the economic importance of this relationship and the direction of causation. The micro evidence on the effects of major changes in benefit generosity on the exit rate out of unemployment has been frequently cited as supportive evidence, but these individual level effects vary widely across studies and, in any case, have no direct implication for changes in the aggregate unemployment rate (due to ``composition" and ``entitlement" effects). Finally, we find little evidence to suggest that 1990s reforms of core protective labor market institutions can explain much of either the success of the ``success stories" or the continued high unemployment of the large continental European countries. We conclude that the evidence is consistent with a more complex reality in which a variety of labor market models can be consistent with good employment performance.

Has Danish agriculture maintained farmland bird populations?

Summary Rapid agricultural change in western Europe has occurred in the last three decades, at cost to farmland biodiversity, particularly birds. This study reviewed agricultural change in Denmark from 1983 to 2001, to compare patterns of intensification and farmland bird abundance with the UK. Changes in 26 agricultural variables summarized using principal components analysis (PCA) showed consistent changes throughout the period that were similar to the UK. Pig and sheep production, and the extent of winter cereals, rape and fodder maize, all increased. The area used to grow fodder beet and spring barley, the applications of agrochemicals and the numbers of cattle reared all declined. The greatest change in land area in Denmark was the switch from spring‐ to autumn‐sown cereals in the 1980s, almost a decade later than in the UK. PCA described changes in annual indices of bird abundance based on Danish point count surveys from 1983 to 2001, which were most marked during 1983–90, after which ordination values varied little despite continued agricultural change. Of 27 bird species associated with farmland habitat in Denmark, five declined, 10 showed stable trends and 12 increased, compared with 15, eight and four, respectively, among the same species in the UK. Agricultural yields have been sustained or enhanced during the survey period, while most farmland bird species declining in the UK have remained stable or increased in Denmark. Of the five declining Danish species, only lapwing Vanellus vanellus and yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella are associated with predominantly farmland habitat. The timing of the declines suggests that the switch to autumn sowing in Denmark has had little effect on any species. In contrast to the UK, pesticide and inorganic fertilizer use has declined and organic farming has expanded in Denmark since 1983, coinciding with the period of stability/increase in farmland bird abundance. It is not possible to establish any causality from this analysis. The ability of species showing marked declines in Europe to maintain their number and distribution in the Danish landscape in the face of agricultural intensification gives some optimism for safeguarding farmland birds and biodiversity in the future. However, we need to understand the reasons behind contrasting population trends in Denmark and the UK. Synthesis and applications. Marked differences between national patterns of agriculture and the contrasting nature of historical intensification offer the opportunity to contrast the effects of major changes in land‐use practice on European farmland biodiversity. Appropriate comparative and individual studies of the effects of changes in specific agricultural management at greater spatial (i.e. supranational) scales are necessary in order to underpin the successful development of future European agricultural policies that will sustain and enhance agricultural yields whilst maintaining farmland biodiversity.

Applying the Least-Cost Transportation Model to Estimate the Effects of Major Transportation System Changes: Case Study of Dam Breaching on the Snake River

In studies conducted between September 1998 and March 2000, estimates were made of economic costs and benefits resulting from the loss of commercial barge navigation on the Snake River. These analyses estimated the effects on producers, agricultural production levels, transportation providers, highway and railroad infrastructure costs, and changes in fuel efficiency and emissions because of transportation mode shifts, based on a single least-cost transportation model (LCTM) that simulated the transportation patterns for wheat and barley in eastern Washington. An LCTM, such as the one used in these studies, can answer many of the critical questions about the effects of major changes to transportation systems and their users. Given its flexibility and sophistication, LCTM is an appropriate tool for predictive modeling when decision makers must consider the costs and benefits of a proposed transportation project or system modification. Although agricultural economists often use LCTM in their research, few transportation planning analysts apply this tool. The application of LCTM to transportation planning is illustrated by analyzing the economic effects likely resulting from changes to the transportation system in the Pacific Northwest related to the proposed breaching of four dams on the Snake River.

Effect of intracerebral norepinephrine depletion on outcome from severe forebrain ischemia in the rat

Manipulations of plasma catecholamine concentrations influence outcome from ischemic brain insults. It has been suggested that these effects are mediated by influences on brain catecholamine concentrations. This study examined whether major changes in brain norepinephrine concentrations can alter outcome from severe forebrain ischemia. Sprague–Dawley rats were administered 50 mg/kg i.p. N-(chloroethyl)- N-ethyl-2-bromobenzylamine (DSP-4) or were left untreated (control). One week later, these rats were subjected to either 7 or 8 min of normothermic forebrain ischemia (bilateral carotid occlusion and MABP=30 mmHg) and allowed to recover for 4 days. Histologic damage was then evaluated. In other control and DSP-4-treated animals, hippocampal microdialysate norepinephrine concentrations were measured before, during and after 8 min of forebrain ischemia. Norepinephrine concentrations were also determined in brain homogenates from non-ischemic DSP-treated and control rats. A 95% depletion of norepinephrine was observed in brain homogenates from non-ischemic DSP-4-treated rats compared with control. During ischemia, microdialysate norepinephrine concentrations increased in control but not in DSP-4-treated rats ( P=0.002). For plasma, intra-ischemic epinephrine concentrations increased 8–10-fold and returned to baseline values post-ischemia with no differences between groups. Plasma norepinephrine values remained unchanged in both groups. Histologic damage resulting from either 7 or 8 min of ischemia in hippocampal structures, caudoputamen, and neocortex was similar between DSP-4-treated and control groups. This study could not identify any effect of major changes in brain norepinephrine concentrations on ischemic brain damage. These data indicate that peripheral catecholamine effects on near-complete forebrain ischemic outcome are unlikely to be mediated by effects on central catecholamine concentrations.

Rational Addiction and Alcohol Consumption: Evidence from the Nordic countries

The purpose of this paper is to test Becker and Murphy's (1988) rational addiction model on 35 years of time series data on alcohol consumption in each of the four Nordic countries: Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. The empirical relevance of rational addiction theory is assessed by examining the influence of past and future consumption and contemporaneous prices on current consumption. More precisely, the rational addiction model maintains that past and future consumption should have a positive effect and that current price should have the conventional negative effect on consumption. In addition, some parameter restrictions (regarding past and future prices and consumption) implied by rational addiction are tested. Finally, the own-price elasticities from rational addiction specifications are compared to those obtained from more conventional demand specifications which ignore addiction. Ignoring addiction may provide misleading estimates of the price sensitivity of alcohol consumption and this may, in turn, lead to underestimation of the effects of major changes in price policy such as those currently taking place in the Nordic countries.

Estimating the economic benefits of alternative pesticide usage scenarios: wheat production in the United Kingdom

This paper investigates the short-run economic costs and benefits to farmers and to society of changes in pesticide use in wheat production in the United Kingdom. Information concerning the effects of changes in the level of pesticide use on production, profitability and economic welfare has been assembled. Three model scenarios are constructed and are used as a basis for calculating the economic benefits of changes in pesticide use. Differences in private gains to farmers and economic gains to society are noted. Such differences suggest that the government may have a role in the promotion of reduced pesticide strategies. The effects of major changes, such as the total elimination of pesticides in wheat production, are more difficult to quantify but may be regarded as the value of the environmental benefits which must accrue if society is to gain from such a ban.