Effectiveness Of Local Interventions Research Articles

The effects of local interventions on global technological change through spillovers: A modeling framework and application to the road-freight sector

To address global sustainability challenges, (public) policy interventions are needed to induce or accelerate technological change. While most policy interventions occur on the local level, their innovation effects can spill over to other jurisdictions, potentially having global impact. These spillovers can increase or reduce the incentive for interventions. Lacking to date are computational models that capture these spillover dynamics. Here, we devise a conceptual and methodological approach to quantify ex ante the effects of local demand-side interventions on global competition between incumbent and novel technologies. We introduce two factors that moderate global spillovers-relative size of selection environments and relative innovation potential of competing technologies. Our approach incorporates both factors in a techno-economic discrete choice model that evaluates technology competition over time through endogenized technological learning. We apply this modeling framework to the case of road freight. Different demand-pull interventions and shocks are modeled to assess spillover effects. In the case of road freight, electric vehicles experience growth in most application segments but can still be accelerated substantially through public policy intervention-spillovers occur if strong public interventions are introduced in large regions or in multiple combined regions under club policy interventions. These findings are discussed in the context of club policy interventions and a modeled geopolitical shock in China. A full sensitivity analysis of model input parameters and intervention or shock dynamics reveals high model robustness. Finally, we discuss the implications of the road-freight case study as it might inform the progress of other niche technologies in transitioning sectors.

Can local infiltration of lidocaine reduce the postoperative atrial fibrillation rate in patients undergoing lobectomy for lung cancer?

Background: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) occurs frequently after lung cancer surgery. Unfortunately, owing to the multifactorial etiology of POAF, no single drug or intervention can prevent POAF in all cases. The effects of local interventions after lung cancer surgery are unknown. This study investigated the effects of local infiltration of an anesthetic (lidocaine) on the post-lobectomy POAF rate.Methods: This non-randomized study included 81 patients who underwent lobectomy for lung cancer. Patients were divided into a lidocaine-infiltration group comprising patients who received lidocaine infiltration around the pulmonary veins and a no-intervention group. Patients were monitored for the development of POAF during hospitalization. Pre- and postoperative demographic and clinical data were analyzed.Results: AF occurred in 3 (7.5%) of 40 patients in the lidocaine-infiltration group and in 10 (24.39%) of 41 patients in the standard surgical resection group. Overall, it was observed that intraoperative lidocaine infiltration resulted in a lower POAF rate (p < .05).Conclusion: Local infiltration of lidocaine around the pulmonary veins in patients undergoing lobectomy for lung cancer was associated with a lower incidence of POAF, which is attributable to the local anesthetic and autonomic effects of lidocaine.

Combining exploratory scenarios and participatory backcasting: using an agent-based model in participatory policy design for a multi-functional landscape.

While the merits of local participatory policy design are widely recognised, limited use is made of model-based scenario results to inform such stakeholder involvement. In this paper we present the findings of a study using an agent based model to help stakeholders consider, discuss and incorporate spatial and temporal processes in a backcasting exercise for rural development. The study is carried out in the Dutch region called the Achterhoek. Region-specific scenarios were constructed based on interviews with local experts. The scenarios are simulated in an agent based model incorporating rural residents and farmer characteristics, the environment and different policy interventions for realistic projection of landscape evolution. Results of the model simulations were presented to stakeholders representing different rural sectors at a workshop. The results indicate that illustration of the spatial configuration of landscape changes is appreciated by stakeholders. Testing stakeholders’ solutions by way of model simulations revealed that the effectiveness of local interventions is strongly related to exogenous processes such as market competition and endogenous processes like local willingness to engage in multifunctional activities. The integration of multi-agent modelling and participatory backcasting is effective as it offers a possibility to initiate discussion between experts and stakeholders bringing together different expertise.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10980-012-9730-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A simple semi‐distributed water balance model for the Ethiopian highlands

AbstractThe discharge of the Nile River is highly dependent on the flow generated in the highlands of Ethiopia. However, little is known about the local (i.e. small scale) watershed hydrological response, due in part to a lack of long duration, continuous hydrological data. The goal of this paper was to develop a realistic, simple model that is useful as a tool for planning watershed management and conservation activities so that the effects of local interventions on stream flow can be predicted at a larger scale. The developed model is semi‐distributed in that it divides the watershed into different regions that become hydrologically active given different amounts of effective cumulative rainfall after the start of the rainy season. A separate water balance is run for each of the hydrologic regions using rainfall and potential evaporation as the major inputs. Watershed parameters that were calibrated included the amount of water required before each region becomes hydrologically active, the fraction of soil water that becomes runoff and subsurface flow, and aquifer characteristics, Model validation indicated that daily discharge values were predicted reasonably well with Nash Sutcliffe values ranging from 0·56 to 0·78. Despite the large distance between the test watersheds, the input parameter values for the watershed characteristic were remarkably similar for the humid highlands, indicating that the model could be used to predict discharge in un‐gauged basins in the region. As expected, the watershed in the semi‐arid region behaved somewhat differently than the other three watersheds. Good quality precipitation data, even for short durations, were key to the effective modelling of runoff in the highland watersheds. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.