Effects Of Exchange Rate Variability Research Articles

Measuring the effect of exchange rate variations on diverse economic sectors in the United States

ABSTRACT This study examined how exchange rates affect the US stock market and 27 industries. Using the TVP-VAR frequency-connectedness approach, it explores volatility spillover transmission and employs wavelet coherence analysis to uncover the co-movement between the USD and various sectors. The results show that the USD has been mainly volatile due to the 2008 stock market crisis, except for gold mining and select industries. During the crisis, the USD’s relationship with sectors exhibited out-of-phase patterns with long-term oscillations. This suggests that policymakers can use exchange rates to boost economic activity.

EXCHANGE RATES AND STOCK MARKET DYNAMICS: ISLAMIC VERSUS CONVENTIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEMS

This study investigates the changes and persistence in dynamic connectedness between stock market performance and exchange rate fluctuations, comparing conventional and Islamic financial systems. With an eye on a global financial landscape characterized by the integration of capital markets and the adoption of floating exchange rate regimes, it examines the effects of exchange rate variations on the dynamics of the stock market in nine different countries - the United Kingdom, Australia, Japan, Singapore, Canada, China, India, Korea, and South Africa. The study employs daily data spanning from November 2015 to July 2023 and uses a comprehensive analysis of three-step methodology, including nonparametric causality-in-quantiles tests, asymmetric slope Conditional Autoregressive Valueat-Risk (CAViaR), and Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) Connectedness measure. Our results underline the asymmetric impact of exchange rate fluctuations on stock markets and highlights the distinctive characteristics of Islamic financial markets. Comparing Islamic and conventional stock markets in the context of exchange rate fluctuations, this study not only serves to fill a gap in the existing literature but also emphasizes the significance of currency exchange rate swings for global investors, policymakers, and practitioners trying to understand the intricacies of global financial markets.

The asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on UK–Pakistan trade flows: New evidence from nonlinear ARDL approach

Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) method, the current study explores the effects of exchange rate variations on commodities trade between Pakistan and the United Kingdom. The current study contends that the limiting assumption of symmetry between the exchange rate and the trade flows may have hampered the empirical results, despite the fact that earlier studies primarily used the symmetric cointegration approach. From 1980 to 2020, the study examines the symmetric and asymmetries effects of exchange rate variations on 35 sectors in Pakistan that import from the UK and 35 industries that export to the UK. The findings suggest that there is evidence of a considerable influence of asymmetric exchange rate variations on trade flows in both the short and long term in over half of the importing and exporting industries that participate in trade with the UK. By highlighting the significance of taking into account asymmetry in the analysis and exposing the sector-specific effects of exchange rate changes on trade flows, the study adds to the body of current work.

Effects of Exchange Rate Variability on Coffee Export Growth in Tanzania

Exchange rate movement is perceived as a very important factor in influencing the performance of the agriculture sector. When the currency of the exporting country depreciates against the trading partners’ currencies tends to stimulate demand and improve export earnings. An increase in value of the currency against the other trading partners’ currencies (e.g. USD) tend to affect the costs of production that may affect aggregate agricultural supply. However, the linkage of the exchange rate and agricultural export growth in particular traditional exports such as coffee has never been properly and intensively documented for appropriate decision-making in Tanzania. Therefore, this study was set to assess how exchange rate variability has affected coffee export growth in Tanzania. The study made use of time series data from 1991 to 2022 using the vector error collection model (VECM). Given the influences other than the real effective exchange rate on the export of coffee growth, we discriminately incorporated inflation rate, discount rate, and money supply, as the independent variables. Yearly data (1991-2022) obtained from the Bank of Tanzania and the International Coffee Organization were used for the analysis. The results from this study reveal that the real effective exchange rate has an enormous positive impact on coffee export growth in the long run. This implies that, the depreciation of the domestic currency against USD has advantage on coffee export growth when considering the demand side as it tends to stimulate coffee demand in the rest of the world, thus leading to an increase in export volume and revenue which helps to foster coffee export growth. However, in the supply side, this depreciation should be carefully monitored as excess depreciation may end up by rising inputs prices especially those inputs imported such as fertilizers, agrochemical, aggrotech and agro machineries that may intern affect the production level. The study ends by concluding, that it is imperative for the Central Bank to carefully observer exchange rate fluctuations and implement appropriate monetary policy strategies in favour of the agriculture sector in particular exportable crops such as coffee. This will help to manage the risks and opportunities that may arise in coffee export growth associated with currency movement.

ESTIMATING EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH TO DOMESTIC PRICES; SIERRA LEONE EXPERIENCE

<p>The study conducts an investigation that seeks to evaluate the nature of exchange rate pass-through on consumer prices in Sierra Leone. As a small, open economy, the country is susceptible to exogenous shocks. The exchange rate acts as a medium through which external shocks get transmitted to the real economy. Therefore, the general objective of the study is to assess the effect of the fluctuation of the exchange rate on domestic prices in Sierra Leone. More specifically, it sought to determine which type of exchange rate pass-through exists for Sierra Leone, using annual time series data between 1992 and 2022. The empirical analysis was based on a VECM model. The coefficient of the exchange rate (.5365) which is also significant at the 5% level of significance (p-value = 0.002), indicates that the exchange rate pass-through is incomplete in Sierra Leone. This means that a 1-unit depreciation of the Leone (increase in nominal exchange rate), leads to an increase in Sierra Leone consumer price by .5365 units or approximately 53.65%. This is an indication of indirect pass-through, where importers increase the price of imported goods to maintain their markup in the event of a nominal exchange rate depreciation. The recommendation to the finding is that since it was revealed that Sierra Leone has relatively high exchange rate shocks means that monetary authorities in Sierra Leone should pay more attention to the effects of EXR fluctuation on consumer prices. Measures such as the promotion of local production to substitute imported goods are key to addressing the effects of exchange rate variations.</p><p> </p><p><strong>JEL: </strong>F31, E31, C32, O24<strong></strong></p><p> </p><p><strong> Article visualizations:</strong></p><p><img src="/-counters-/lit/0758/a.php" alt="Hit counter" /></p>

Effects of Exchange Rate Variations on Imports and Exports: A Case Study of Pakistan

This study examines the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on Pakistan's exports and imports throughout 2000 to 2019. The current study uses a non-probabilistic approach for the sample selection. Descriptive statistics are used in order to assess the data based on mean, medium, and standard deviation; however, regression analysis is used to analyze the relationship between variables. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether trade flows are influenced by exchange rate volatility symmetrically or asymmetrically, as the exchange rate variations have shown an empathic impact on the economies of developing nations in the past years. The existing study investigates the effect of currency fluctuation in the context of Pakistan. It is generally recommended that policymakers in Pakistan consider the existence and degree of exchange rate volatility as well as the predicted impact of this volatility on specific macroeconomic variables when implementing trade strategies. This will allow for increased trade and foreign direct investment potential. The results of the study show that there is a substantial correlation between exports and exchange rates, with a t-statistics value of 2.01 for the independent variable of currency rates. We find that the exchange rate significantly affects the exports and imports of Pakistan. As the results show, currency fluctuation does affect the imports and exports, so automatically, the economic growth of the country is concerned. Inflation and interest rates are taken as control variables in the existing article.

Exchange Rate and Trade in Services Nexus in Nigeria: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach

A nonlinear ARDL model is employed to investigate the asymmetric drivers of non-oil trade in services between Nigeria and Netherlands. A significant number of past studies have concentrated their attention on the elasticity of trade in services to real exchange rates and income as well as on non-oil export, total export trade or import, yet none have delve into asymmetric relationship. This study aims to fills this void. Our result shows that the effects of exchange rate variations have both positive and negative displays with more negative asymmetry. This provides further insights in the nature of service asymmetries. (JEL Codes: C22, D43, E31, L71, Q41) Keywords: asymmetric cointegration, exchange rate adjustment, disaggregated, services

Exchange Rate Variability and Exports: Evidence from Textile and Sports Goods Industries of Pakistan

The present study is different from previous studies in several aspects. Firstly, two different major sectors (Textile & Sports exports) of Pakistan exports are chosen to calculate the impact of exchange rate variability on these specific sectors instead of taking aggregate exports. Secondly, the aim of the study is not only to calculate effect of exchange rate variability on two sectors exports but also to check either two different sectors are affected same or different with this variation. Thirdly, annual data is taken for all the variables to check the correlation and to examine the impact of exchange rate variability on exports.This research also views the short-run characteristics by which exports meet on their long-run balance. This research is important since it has effects for the selection of exchange rate program and performs of interchange rate plan. Our commercial goods can contend besides endure in the international industry, on offering uniform-playing arena. Another slowing aspect is the failing of controlling department’s involved to develop a quick return program of sales tax.Simple regression model is used to examine the impact of exchange rate variability on Textile and sports goods exports individually as well as on aggregate of these two sectors of Pakistani Export.
 Keywords: Exchange Rate, Textile Exports, Sports Goods Exports

Asymmetric impact of exchange rate changes on stock returns: evidence of two de facto regimes

PurposeThis study focuses on Egypt’s recent experience with exchange rate policies, examining the existence of spillover effects of exchange rate variations on stock prices across two different de facto regimes and whether these effects, if any, are asymmetric.Design/methodology/approachThe empirical analysis is carried out using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag modeling framework, which permits testing for the presence of short- and long-run asymmetries. Relevant local and global factors are also included in the analysis as control variables. The authors divide the entire sample into a soft peg period and a free float one.FindingsOver the soft peg regime period, both positive and negative changes in EGP/USD exchange rates seem to have a significant impact on stock returns, whether in the short or long run. Short-term asymmetric effects vanish in the free float period, while long-term asymmetries continue to exist. By and large, the authors find that currency depreciation tends to exercise a stronger influence on stock returns than does currency appreciation.Practical implicationsThe results offer important insights for investors, regulators and policymakers. With the domestic currency depreciation having a negative impact on stock prices, investors should contemplate implementing appropriate currency hedging strategies to abate depreciation risks and, hence, preserve their expected rate of return on the Egyptian pound-denominated investments. In the current post-flotation era, the government could pursue a flexible inflation targeting monetary policy framework, with a view to both lowering the soaring inflation toward an announced target rate and stabilizing economic growth. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could adopt indirect monetary policy instruments to secure tightened liquidity conditions. Besides, the CBE could raise policy rates to incentivize people to keep their money in local currency-denominated instruments, instead of dollarizing their savings, thereby relieving banks of foreign currency demand pressures. Nevertheless, while being beneficial to the country’s real economy on several aspects, such contractionary monetary measures may temporarily impinge on stock market performance. Accordingly, policymakers should consider precautionary measures that reduce the potential for price distortions and unnecessary volatility in the stock market.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, the current study represents the first attempt to explore the potential impact of exchange rate changes under different regimes on Egypt’s stock market, thus contributing to the relevant research in this area.

Exchange rate volatility and exports from India: a commodity-level panel data analysis

PurposeThis study aims to examine the relationship between exchange rate risk and export at commodity level for the Indian case.Design/methodology/approachThe monthly panel data used for analysis are at a disaggregated level, which cover around 100 products, encompassing all merchandize sectors for the period spanning from 2012:12 to 2017:11. To measure the exchange rate volatility, the authors use real as well as nominal exchange rate concepts and predict the volatility of exchange rate using the autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic-based model. They use pooled mean group, mean group and common correlated effects mean group estimator that is suitable for the objectives and data frequency.FindingsThe empirical analysis indicates both short- and long-term negative effects of exchange rate variations on exporting. Specifically, in the long run, real exchange rate as well as nominal exchange rate volatility has significant effects on export performance, yet, the effects of uncertainty of nominal exchange rate is much severe and intense. In the short run, it is the nominal exchange rate uncertainty that hurts exports from India. Nevertheless, the short-run effect is much lesser than the long-run, supporting the argument that the short-term exchange rate risk can be hedged, at least partially, through financial instruments; however, uncertainty of the long-term horizon cannot be hedged easily and cost-effectively.Practical implicationsReducing uncertainty and attaining stability in exchange rate and price level should be an important policy objective in developing countries such as India to achieve higher export growth, both in the short and long run.Originality/valueUnlike previous studies, this paper tests the relationship using micro-level data and uses advanced econometric techniques that are likely to provide more precise information regarding the association between exchange rate volatility and trade flows.

The Effects of Exchange Rate Variability on Trade Flows in Nigeria: A Cointegration Analysis

This study is designed to investigate the effects of exchange rate changes (volatility or variability) and other macroeconomic variables such as real exchange rates, real foreign and domestic income, terms of trade and lagged exports and imports on trade flows in Nigeria. The study examined the long-run macroeconomic factors of exports and imports in Nigeria using Johansen cointegration tests and analysis for the period 1971 to 2011 studied. The time series properties of the data were first analyzed using the Augmented Dickey – Fuller (ADF) tests to execute unit root tests for the relevant trade indicators. The study found a long-run cointegration relationship between trade flows and their determinants. It further discovered that exports and imports exhibit varied sensitivity to exchange rate risks (i.e volatility or variability). Thus, a stable exchange rate is recommended for expansion of trade and stable growth of the national economy as persistence in exchange rate volatility would snowball into a depression if not arrested on time via application of a managed floating exchange rate regime by the central bank of Nigeria. More-so, there are other viable policy options that should be adopted by the government to stop this sliding trend like restructuring the domestic economy from consumption to production using agricultural and industrial sectors diversification. In particular, the policy of a guided deregulation of foreign exchange market is strongly recommended instead of allowing the market forces to determine the value of the domestic currency vis-à-vis other key currencies of the world. This is because foreign currency is scare and sources of its inflow is few as at present.

Effects of exchange rate variations on bilateral trade with a vehicle currency: Evidence from China and Singapore

Using a testable gravity-type bilateral trade model derived from an underlying demand and supply model, this paper explores the effects of exchange rate variations on bilateral trade in an exchange rate regime with a vehicle currency. The introduction of the vehicle currency allows us to figure out whether variations in the trade volume due to the fluctuation of the bilateral exchange rate are primarily due to changes in demand or in supply, or both. More specifically, in this theoretical framework, the appreciation of one country's currency against the vehicle currency is expected to promote its imports, but the effect of revaluation of the country's currency against the vehicle currency on its exports is ambiguous. Moreover, high volatility of the exchange rate of one country's currency against the vehicle currency is also expected to depress its import volume. From the empirical point of view, the decomposition of the bilateral exchange rate of two currencies into the bilateral rates of these two currencies against the vehicle currency provides a new alternative to avoid the econometric problem of potential reverse causality in assessing the effects. Through compiling a novel monthly bilateral-trade dataset between China and Singapore over 21 years or 252 months, we empirically test the predictions of our model, which get robust support from the results.

Exchange Rate Variability and Manufacturing Sector Performance in Ghana: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis

<p>This study examined the effect of exchange rate variability on manufacturing sector performance in Ghana. Using time series data from the period 1986-2013 and employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, the empirical results show that there exists both a short as well as long run relationship between exchange rate and manufacturing sector performance. Thus, in Ghana as the exchange rate appreciates, the manufacturing sector performance improves and as it depreciates, the sector is adversely affected. In view of this, it is recommended that policy should be put in place to regulate the importation of goods that could be locally produced so as to improve the performance of the manufacturing sector. In addition, the government should ensure that there is regular electricity supply, good roads, water and a reliable telecommunication system so that the manufacturing sector can perform effectively and efficiently in order to achieve a considerable rate of economic growth.</p>

“Asymmetric asymmetries” in Eurozone markets gasoline pricing

Building on the well-established “rockets and feathers” literature and on the recently developed nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) modelling, we investigate the asymmetries in gasoline pricing in a comprehensive sample of monthly data from twelve Eurozone countries from 1999:1 to 2015:12. The empirical results feature two robust patterns. Firstly, while the effects of exchange rate variations display positive asymmetry (i.e., depreciations have a greater effect than appreciations), crude price variations induce negative asymmetry (i.e., reductions in the price of crude oil have a greater effect than price rises). Secondly, the positive asymmetry to exchange rate changes is stronger in core Eurozone countries. The negative asymmetry with respect to crude oil prices confirms the results of recent empirical research and theoretical models. The different behavior between Eurozone core and periphery provides further insights into the nature of pricing asymmetries.

Effects of Exchange Rate Variations on Bilateral Trade with a Vehicle Currency: Evidence from China and Singapore

With a testable gravity-type bilateral trade model derived from an underlying demand and supply model, we explore the effect of exchange rate variation on bilateral trade in an exchange rate regime with a vehicle currency, which refers to the case where the bilateral trade is invoiced/settled by neither the currency of the home country nor that of the destination country, but by a third currency. The introduction of the vehicle currency makes it feasible to figure out the source of the variation in the trade volume due to the fluctuation of the bilateral exchange rate in the sense that whether the demand or the supply responds or both. More specifically, in this theoretical framework, appreciation of the import country’s currency against the vehicle currency is expected to promote the imports, but the effect of revaluation the export country’s currency against the vehicle currency is ambiguous. Moreover, the volatility of the import country’s currency against the vehicle currency is also expected to depress the import volume. Empirically speaking, the decomposition of the bilateral exchange rate of two currencies into the bilateral rates of these two currencies to the vehicle currency also provides a new alternative to avoid the econometric problem of potential reversal causality. Through compiling a novel monthly bilateral-trade dataset between China and Singapore over 21 years or 252 months, we provide strong empirical evidence to our model. This paper is also expected to contribute to the literature in several aspects.

Trade rules and exchange rate misalignments: in search for a WTO solution

The debate on the link between trade rules and rules on exchange rates is raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs as applied by the WTO - World Trade Organization. It is divided into five sections: the first one explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, U.S. and China; the second summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of "misalignment tariffication"; the third examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth one creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a currency of the World and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The conclusions are present in the last section.

Asymmetric effects of exchange rate variations: An empirical analysis for four advanced countries

This paper investigates possible asymmetries in the reaction of export and import prices to changes in the exchange rate for 4 advanced countries between the 1981q1 and 2011q2 period. This exercise is conducted using an asymmetric cointegrating autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, with positive and negative partial sum decompositions of the nominal exchange rates. Our results show evidence of asymmetric ERPT to appreciations and depreciations, meaning that export and import prices respond differently depending on the direction of the exchange rate variation. In particular, we find that appreciations are more passed through to export and import prices than depreciations. This result has important implications in terms of monetary policy.

Evaluation of the Effect of Exchange Rate Variability on the Export of Ethiopia’s Agricultural Product: A Case of Coffee

Research was conducted to find out the effects of exchange rate variability, terms of trade, competitiveness and gross domestic product on the dominant export crop of Ethiopia, coffee. This study employs annual time series data (1992–2010) and uses the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model augmented by the Wald test. The results reveal that exchange rate variability has a negative effect on the export of coffee in the short run, but is insignificant in the long run. This implies that, over time, exchange rate changes in the country have been favouring the export performance of coffee. Regardless of exchange rate variability, the competitiveness of the country, explained by real effective exchange rates, improved, but the price of coffee did not increase relative to the price of imports, which has resulted in deteriorating terms of trade. To improve the worsening terms of trade and benefit from policy changes, export diversification and value addition are possible solutions the country should focus on. JEL Classification: F130

Exchange Rate Misalignments and International Trade Policy: Impacts on Tariffs

The debate on 'exchange wars and trade wars' is raising the attention of experts on international trade and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyse the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on one of the most traditional trade policy instruments - tariffs, as defined by the World Trade Organization (WTO). It is divided into three sections: the first one examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and its consequences for the multilateral trade system; the second explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, US and China; and the third summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of 'misalignment tariffication'.

Does exchange rate volatility discourage international trade? A meta-regression analysis

Since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods agreement, the trade effect of exchange rate variability (ERV) has been contentious. However, neither the theoretical nor the empirical literature provides unambiguous guidance on the trade effect of ERV. This article applies meta-regression analysis to the empirical literature and finds evidence of: modest publication bias; a range of authentic empirical effects that are highly conditional, even with respect to sign and, correspondingly, pronounced heterogeneity in the reported results. Investigation of this heterogeneity reveals that the results are significantly influenced both by authors' modelling strategies and by the contexts of their investigations. In particular, researchers are most likely to find an adverse trade effect by investigating low-frequency real exchange variability and trade between less developed economies, hence, beyond the reach of hedging opportunities (as suggested by previous studies). In general, our most important advice for policy makers is that economic research does not reveal a single representative effect size.