Effects Negative Binomial Regression Models Research Articles

Changes in physical activity among Canadian adults more than 6 months into the COVID-19 pandemic: a secondary analysis of the INTERACT cohort study

ObjectiveTo estimate the effect of (a) the COVID-19 pandemic and (b) COVID-19 restriction stringency on daily minutes of device-measured moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA).DesignPhysical activity data were collected from the INTerventions,...

Mortality risk on farm and during transport: a comparison of 2 broiler hybrids with different growth rates

Mortality in broilers is often associated with poor health and welfare and has a complex and multifactorial etiology. Recent studies under experimental conditions indicated that genetic selection for fast growth is an important risk factor for mortality in broiler chickens. However, the knowledge on broiler mortality in general, and in slower growing broilers in particular, under commercial conditions is still limited. This retrospective cohort study aimed to describe mortality risk on farm and during transport in two broiler hybrids with different growth rates, Ross 308, and Hubbard JA787, and to estimate the association between hybrid and mortality at different stages of the production cycle. The study sample consisted of 64 651 804 broilers from 4 228 flocks and 139 farms slaughtered from January 1st, 2015, to June 22nd, 2021. Analysis of on-farm mortality was restricted to broiler flocks slaughtered in the period July 2017- July 2018 due to changes known to affect FWM. The effect of hybrid on mortality during three different production stages (first week mortality (FWM), Mortality after the first week (MAFW), and mortality during transport (DOA)), was assessed using mixed effect negative binomial regression models. Descriptively, there were notable differences in mortality at all stages of the production cycle, with higher mean mortalities in Ross 308 (1.40% FWM, 3.05% MAFW and 0.063% DOA) than in Hubbard JA787 (0.76% FWM, 1.49% MAFW and 0.015% DOA). In the analysis, the largest estimated difference was found for dead on arrival under cold conditions, where mortality was almost five times higher in Ross 308 compared to Hubbard JA 787 (IRR: 4.70, 95% CI: 3.74-5.90). The estimated difference in FWM between hybrids was highest during autumn, with an estimated risk approximately 1.6 times higher in Ross than in Hubbard (IRR: 1.56, 95% CI: 1.30-1.86). For MAFW, the estimated risk was approximately 2 times higher in Ross than in Hubbard (IRR: 2.13 95% CI: 1.82-2.49). The findings in this study emphasize the need for more knowledge on causes of mortality in broilers including effects of genetic factors as basis for preventive measures.

Changes in industrial air pollution and the onset of childhood asthma in Quebec, Canada

Ambient air pollution has been associated with asthma onset and exacerbation in children. Whether improvement in air quality due to reduced industrial emissions has resulted in improved health outcomes such as asthma in some localities has usually been assessed indirectly with studies on between-subject comparisons of air pollution from all sources and health outcomes. In this study we directly assessed, within small areas in the province of Quebec (Canada), the influence of changes in local industrial fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) concentrations, on changes in annual asthma onset rates in children (≤12 years old) with a longitudinal ecological design. We identified the yearly number of new cases of childhood asthma in 1282 small areas (census tracts or local community service centers) for the years 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2015. Annual average concentrations of industrial air pollutants for each of the geographic areas, and three sectors (i.e., pulp and paper mills, petroleum refineries, and metal smelters) were estimated by the Polair3D chemical transport model. Fixed-effects negative binomial models adjusted for household income were used to assess associations; additional adjustments for environmental tobacco smoke, background pollutant concentrations, vegetation coverage, and sociodemographic characteristics were conducted in sensitivity analyses. The incidence rate ratios (IRR) for childhood asthma onset for the interquartile increase in total industrial PM2.5, NO2, and SO2 were 1.016 (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.006–1.026), 1.063 (1.045–1.090), and 1.048 (1.031–1.080), respectively. Positive associations were also found with pollutant concentrations from most individual sectors. Results suggest that changes in industrial pollutant concentrations influence childhood asthma onset rates in small localities.

Emergency Free School Meal Distribution During the COVID-19 Pandemic in High-Poverty Urban Settings

BackgroundThe coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic triggered nationwide school closures in March 2020, putting millions of children in the United States who were reliant on subsidized school meals at risk of experiencing hunger. In response, the US Department of Agriculture mobilized the Summer Food Service Program and Seamless Summer Option program to provide emergency free school meals. There is a need to investigate the effectiveness of these programs in covering underresourced communities during the pandemic. ObjectiveThis study assessed associations between meal distribution and census tract demographics (ie, poverty level, race/ethnicity, and deprivation level based on social deprivation index score). DesignAn observational study using longitudinal meal distribution data collected over an 18-month period following school closures (March 2020 to August 2021). Participants and settingMonthly meal distribution data were collected for community sites serving 142 census tracts within 4 urban New Jersey cities predominantly populated by people with low incomes and from racial and ethnic minority groups. Main outcome measuresMain outcome measures were the number of meals served monthly by Summer Food Service Program and Seamless Summer Option meal sites. Statistical analyses performedA 2-part multivariable regression approach was used to analyze the data. ResultsIn the first step, logistic regression models showed that high-deprivation tracts were more likely to serve meals during the observed period (odds ratio 3.43, 95% CI 1.001 to 11.77; P = 0.0499). In the second step, among tracts that served any meals during the observed period, mixed effects negative binomial regression models showed that high-poverty and high-deprivation tracts served comparatively more meals (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 2.83, 95% CI 2.29 to 3.51; P < 0.001 and IRR 1.94, 95% CI 1.65 to 2.28; P < 0.001, respectively). ConclusionsFindings show that meal distribution during the pandemic was higher within census tracts with higher poverty and deprivation levels, indicating that underresourced communities with higher need had more free meals available during this unprecedented public health emergency.

The combined effect of social pensions and cash transfers on child mortality: evaluating the last two decades in Brazil and projecting their mitigating effect during the global economic crisis

The world is currently experiencing multiple economic crises due to the COVID-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, and inflation surge, which disproportionately affect children, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We evaluated if the expansion of Social Assistance, represented by Social Pensions (SP) and Conditional Cash Transfers (CCT), could reduce infant and child mortality, and mitigate excess deaths among children in Brazil, one of the LMICs most affected by these economic crises. We conducted a retrospective impact evaluation in a cohort of Brazilian municipalities from 2004 to 2019 using multivariable fixed-effects negative binomial models, adjusted for relevant demographic, social, and economic factors, to estimate the effects of the SP and CCT on infant and child mortality. To verify the robustness of the results, we conducted several sensitivity and triangulation analyses, including difference-in-difference with propensity-score matching. These results were incorporated into dynamic microsimulation models to generate projections to 2030 of various economic crises and Social Assistance scenarios. Consolidated coverage of SP was associated with significant reductions in infant and child mortality rates, with a rate ratio (RR) of 0.843 (95% CI: 0.826-0.861) and 0.840 (95% CI: 0.824-0.856), respectively. Similarly, CCT consolidated coverages showed RRs of 0.868 (95% CI: 0.842-0.849) and 0.874 (95% CI: 0.850-0.899) for infant and child mortality, respectively. The higher the degree of poverty in the municipalities, the stronger the impact of CCT on reducing child mortality. Given the current economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of SP and CCT could avert 148,736 (95% CI: 127,148-170,706) child deaths up to 2030, compared with fiscal austerity measures. SP and CCT programs could strongly reduce child mortality in LMICs, and their expansion should be considered as an effective strategy to mitigate the impact of the current multiple global economic crises. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Grant_Number:INV-027961. Medical Research Council(MRC-UKRI),Grant_Number:MC_PC_MR/T023678/1.

CEO vigilance and hypercompetition: CEO attention in resource utilization and firm competitive aggressiveness

PurposeBy integrating perspectives from the resource-based view, attention-based view, upper echelon theory and competitive dynamics (CD), the authors seek to understand how chief executive officer (CEO) vigilance influences the way resources are utilized in relation to competitive behavior.Design/methodology/approachThis study's empirical analysis is conducted using a longitudinal design in the US software and IT services industry with a final sample consisting of 44 publicly traded firms and 471 firm-year observations from 1995 to 2009. The authors respectively use the fixed-effects negative binomial model and generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to test the effects of technology resource breadth on competitive intensity and competitive deviance and the interacting effects with CEO attention broadness and uniqueness.FindingsThis study's results show that CEO vigilance (attention broadness and uniqueness) interacts with technology resource breadth to jointly influence competitive intensity and deviance. Firms with vigilant CEOs utilize firm resources to compete less intensively but in an unconventional way.Practical implicationsThis study reveals that when CEOs have a broader focus and attend to a wide range of information, their ability to quickly utilize firm resources for formulating competitive actions decreases. Consequently, it is crucial for CEOs to acknowledge the limitations of their attentional capacity. They need to understand that the allocation of their attention and information processing capacity has significant implications for the speed and quality of their decision-making processes.Originality/valueThe authors conceptualize and operationalize CEO vigilance, which is a novel construct that has not been studied. The authors show that CEO vigilance plays critical roles in utilizing resources to compete. This study offers significant research implications for attention-based view, upper-echelons theory, CD perspective and resource-based view.

Determinants of system emergence at the nexus of banks and fintech–insights from the DACH region

ABSTRACT We explore the determinants affecting the emergence of the “pervaded banking system” (PBS) – a mixed system encompassing traditional banks and continuously entering fintech companies – in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland. Drawing on a sample of 604 fintech companies and 802 banks, we compile an unbalanced panel dataset between 2015 and 2019 and employ a fixed-effects negative binomial model to analyze tie formation processes between fintech companies and banks using three analytical perspectives: (i) geographical colocation, (ii) network embeddedness, and (iii) combined effects. Our empirical results demonstrate that geographical factors, network-related drivers, and combined effects positively impact the formation of ties between banks and fintech companies. This study contributes to the debate in small business literature by illuminating how small firms affect system emergence. We make recommendations for bank and fintech managers, as well as political decision-makers, who need a profound systemic understanding to adapt strategies and set the institutional framework.

Digital Technology Driving Exploratory Innovation in the Enterprise: A Mediated Model with Moderation

Emerging digital technologies, with their great advantages in resource convergence, opportunity identification, supply-demand docking and knowledge sharing, are breaking and subverting traditional business concepts and providing a new impetus and opportunities for enterprise innovation activities. Therefore, it is valuable to explore how digital technology affects exploratory innovation to gain a sustainable competitive advantage in a dynamic and changing market environment. Based on data from Chinese A-share high-tech manufacturing listed companies from 2012 to 2020, this paper empirically tests the impact of digital technology on enterprise exploratory innovation by using a fixed effects negative binomial regression model and further explores the intermediate mechanism and boundary conditions between the two. The results show that digital technology has a significant positive impact on enterprise exploratory innovation, and that knowledge breadth plays a mediating role; high network centrality can effectively strengthen the positive impact of digital technology on enterprise knowledge breadth, thus promoting enterprise exploratory innovation. The conclusion enriches and expands the theoretical and empirical research on the driving effect of digital technology innovation, and provides strong practical guidance for encouraging enterprises to achieve exploratory innovation.

REDE DE CONHECIMENTO E APRENDIZAGEM AMBIDESTRA: QUAL É O IMPACTO NO DESEMPENHO DA INOVAÇÃO?

ABSTRACT Knowledge networks have become a critical factor in the development of innovation. However, most studies focus on the innovation benefits derived from network embedding, and there are fewer studies on firms’ knowledge networks from the perspective of feature attributes. This study analyzes the direct and interactive effects of knowledge diversity and the combination of knowledge potential on innovation performance. The research also explores how the complementarity of ambidextrous learning affects the relationship between knowledge networks and innovation performance. The empirical analysis is based on panel data from 116 firms in China’s automotive manufacturing industry from 2010-2018. The results processed by the fixed effects negative binomial regression model indicate that the combinatorial potential of knowledge has an inverted U-shaped relationship with firm innovation performance, and knowledge diversity has a positive effect on firm innovation performance. There is an interactive effect between knowledge combination potential and knowledge diversity, and their mutual coordination improves firm innovation performance. The complementarity of ambidextrous learning significantly and positively moderates the positive relationship between the combination potential of knowledge and firm innovation performance.

The system-wide effects of dispatch, response and operational performance on emergency medical services during Covid-19

In this paper, we analyze the Fire Department of New York City’s pre-hospital emergency medical services dispatch data for the period of March 20, 2019–June 13, 2019, and the corresponding Covid lockdown period of March 20, 2020–June 13, 2020. A fixed effects negative binomial model is used to estimate the heterogeneity effects of average ambulance travel or response times on the daily volume of emergency calls, year, day of the week, dispatcher-assigned medical emergency call type, priority rank, ambulance crew response, borough and an offset for missing calls. We also address the limitations of other non-parametric Covid studies or parametric studies that did not properly account for over-dispersion. When our model is estimated and corrected for clustered standard errors, fixed effects, and over-dispersion, we found that Wednesday was the only day of the week that was most likely to increase travel response time with an odd ratio of 6.91%. All grouped call types that were categorized showed significant declines in average travel time, except for call types designated as allergy and an odds ratio of 21.81%. When compared to Manhattan, Staten Island ambulance response times increased with an odds ratio of 19.05% while the Bronx showed a significant decline with an odds ratio of 31.92% advanced life support (ALS) and BLS ambulances showed the biggest declines in travel time with the exception of BLS assigned ambulance types and emergency priority rank of 6. Surprisingly, in terms of capacity utilization, the dispatch system was not as overwhelmed as previously predicted as emergency call volume declined by 8.83% year over year.

Socio-demographic inequalities and excess non-COVID-19 mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a data-driven analysis of 1 069 174 death certificates in Mexico.

In 2020, Mexico experienced one of the highest rates of excess mortality globally. However, the extent of non-COVID deaths on excess mortality, its regional distribution and the association between socio-demographic inequalities have not been characterized. We conducted a retrospective municipal and individual-level study using 1 069 174 death certificates to analyse COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 deaths classified by ICD-10 codes. Excess mortality was estimated as the increase in cause-specific mortality in 2020 compared with the average of 2015-2019, disaggregated by primary cause of death, death setting (in-hospital and out-of-hospital) and geographical location. Correlates of individual and municipal non-COVID-19 mortality were assessed using mixed effects logistic regression and negative binomial regression models, respectively. We identified a 51% higher mortality rate (276.11 deaths per 100 000 inhabitants) compared with the 2015-2019 average period, largely attributable to COVID-19. Non-COVID-19 causes comprised one-fifth of excess deaths, with acute myocardial infarction and type 2 diabetes as the two leading non-COVID-19 causes of excess mortality. COVID-19 deaths occurred primarily in-hospital, whereas excess non-COVID-19 deaths occurred in out-of-hospital settings. Municipal-level predictors of non-COVID-19 excess mortality included levels of social security coverage, higher rates of COVID-19 hospitalization and social marginalization. At the individual level, lower educational attainment, blue-collar employment and lack of medical care assistance prior to death were associated with non-COVID-19 deaths. Non-COVID-19 causes of death, largely chronic cardiometabolic conditions, comprised up to one-fifth of excess deaths in Mexico during 2020. Non-COVID-19 excess deaths occurred disproportionately out-of-hospital and were associated with both individual- and municipal-level socio-demographic inequalities.

Effect of a conditional cash transfer programme on AIDS incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality in Brazil: a longitudinal ecological study

One of the biggest challenges of the response to the AIDS epidemic is to reach the poorest people. In 2004, Brazil implemented one of the world's largest conditional cash transfer programmes, the Bolsa Família Programme (BFP). We aimed to evaluate the effect of BFP coverage on AIDS incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality in Brazil. In this longitudinal ecological study, we developed a conceptual framework linking key mechanisms of BFP effects on AIDS indicators and used ecological panel data from 5507 Brazilian municipalities over the period of 2004-18. We used government sources to calculate municipal-level AIDS incidence, hospitalisation, and mortality rates, and used multivariable regressions analyses of panel data with fixed-effects negative binomial models to estimate the effect of BFP coverage, which was classified as low (0-29%), intermediate (30-69%), and high (≥70%), on AIDS indicators, while adjusting for all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and health-care covariates at the municipal level. Between 2004 and 2018, in the municipalities under study, 601 977 new cases of AIDS were notified, of which 376 772 (62·6%) were in males older than 14 years, 212 465 (35·3%) were in females older than 14 years, and 12 740 (2·1%) were in children aged 14 years or younger. 533 624 HIV/AIDS-related hospitalisations, and 176 868 AIDS-related deaths had been notified. High BFP coverage was associated with reductions in incidence rate ratios of 5·1% (95% CI 0·9-9·1) for AIDS incidence, 14·3% (7·7-20·5) for HIV/AIDS hospitalisations, and 12·0% (5·2-18·4) for AIDS mortality. The effect of the BFP on AIDS indicators was more pronounced in municipalities with higher AIDS endemicity levels, with reductions in incidence rate ratios of 12·7% (95% CI 5·4-19·4) for AIDS incidence, 21·1% (10·7-30·2) for HIV/AIDS hospitalisations, and 14·7% (3·2-24·9) for AIDS-related mortality, and reductions in AIDS incidence of 14·6% (5·9-22·5) in females older than 14 years, 9·7% (1·4-17·3) in males older than 14 years, and 24·5% (0·5-42·7) in children aged 14 years or younger. The effect of BFP coverage on AIDS indicators in Brazil could be explained by the reduction of households' poverty and by BFP health-related conditionalities. The protection of the most vulnerable populations through conditional cash transfers could contribute to the reduction of AIDS burden in low-income and middle-income countries. US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health. For the Portugese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Resurgence of malaria in Uganda despite sustained indoor residual spraying and repeated long lasting insecticidal net distributions.

Five years of sustained indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide from 2014 to 2019, first using a carbamate followed by an organophosphate, was associated with a marked reduction in the incidence of malaria in five districts of Uganda. We assessed changes in malaria incidence over an additional 21 months, corresponding to a change in IRS formulations using clothianidin with and without deltamethrin. Using enhanced health facility surveillance data, our objectives were to 1) estimate the impact of IRS on monthly malaria case counts at five surveillance sites over a 6.75 year period, and 2) compare monthly case counts at five facilities receiving IRS to ten facilities in neighboring districts not receiving IRS. For both objectives, we specified mixed effects negative binomial regression models with random intercepts for surveillance site adjusting for rainfall, season, care-seeking, and malaria diagnostic. Following the implementation of IRS, cases were 84% lower in years 4-5 (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] = 0.16, 95% CI 0.12-0.22), 43% lower in year 6 (aIRR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.44-0.74), and 39% higher in the first 9 months of year 7 (aIRR = 1.39, 95% CI 0.97-1.97) compared to pre-IRS levels. Cases were 67% lower in IRS sites than non-IRS sites in year 6 (aIRR = 0.33, 95% CI 0.17-0.63) but 38% higher in the first 9 months of year 7 (aIRR = 1.38, 95% CI 0.90-2.11). We observed a resurgence in malaria to pre-IRS levels despite sustained IRS. The timing of this resurgence corresponded to a change of active ingredient. Further research is needed to determine causality.

Does coinsurance reduction influence informer-sector workers’ and farmers’ utilization of outpatient care? A quasi-experimental study in China

BackgroundIn recent years, the Chinese government has been trying to improve informal-sector workers’ and farmers’ access to healthcare and reduce their financial burdens by introducing a plan of cost-sharing reduction, but the effect on outpatient care utilization remains unknown. Furthermore, scarce evidence has been provided to help understand the impact of cost-sharing reduction on healthcare use in low- and middle-income countries. The policy change of the coinsurance reduction for outpatient care from 75 to 55% for the enrollees of the Urban and Rural Residents Basic Medical Insurance in Taizhou, China in 2015 provides us a good quasi-experimental setting to explore such an impact.MethodsWe do a quasi-experimental study to explore the impact of coinsurance reduction on outpatient care use among the informal-sector workers and farmers aged 45 and above by estimating a fixed-effects negative binomial model with the difference-in-differences approach and the matching method. Heterogeneous effects in primary care clinics and for the older people aged 60 and above are also examined. Our data is from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study 2013 and 2015.ResultsWe find neither statistically significant impact of coinsurance reduction on outpatient care utilization in all health facilities for informal-sector workers and farmers aged 45 and above, nor heterogeneous effects in primary care clinics and for older people aged 60 and above.ConclusionsWe conclude that the coinsurance reduction cannot effectively improve the informal-sector workers’ and farmers’ utilization of healthcare if the cost-sharing undertaken by patients remains high even after the reduction. Besides, improving healthcare quality in primary care clinics may play a more important role than merely introducing a cost-sharing reduction plan in enhancing the role of primary care clinics as gatekeepers. We propose that only a substantial coinsurance reduction may help influence the utilization of healthcare for informal-sector workers and farmers, and enhancing the healthcare quality in primary care clinics should be given priority in low- and middle-income countries.

Safety Evaluation of Freeway Exit Ramps with Advisory Speed Reductions

Posted speed limits inform drivers of the legal maximum allowable speed. In contrast, advisory speeds provide recommendations to drivers based on highway design, operating characteristics, and conditions. Various studies have investigated the safety impacts of speed limit changes, particularly on high-speed rural highways. One area of particular concern on such roadways is the approach to exit ramps that require substantive speed reductions, such as loop ramps. To date, there has been limited research examining the safety impact of the differential between the mainline speed limit and the lower exit ramp advisory speeds. This study aims to evaluate this relationship through the estimate of a series of safety performance functions. Random effects negative binomial regression models were estimated using data from 187 exit ramps where advisory speed signs are present throughout Michigan. The analyses were conducted based on a five-year period from 2014 to 2019, excluding 2017 data because of speed limit increases. In addition to speed differentials, various roadway characteristics such as deceleration lane length and curve radius were also evaluated. Results indicate that crashes increased as the difference between mainline and ramp speed increased. Crashes were also shown to decrease on ramps where the upstream deceleration lane length was greater than the minimum recommendation as per current design guidance.

International student mobility spurs scientific research on foreign countries: Evidence from international students studying in China

• The impact of international student mobility on scientific research in china was explored. • Fixed-effect negative binomial regression and instrumental variable approach were employed. • The inflow of international students contributes to china's publications on origin countries. The international mobility of scientists fosters knowledge exchange by increasing cross-country research collaboration between destination and origin countries. To the best of our knowledge, the mobility of international students, most of whom are not scientists, has not been linked to knowledge production involving both destination and origin countries in previous studies. The question of this research is whether international student mobility (ISM) contributes to science in China. To address this research question, we determined the annual number of international students studying in Chinese universities from 1999 to 2018, from the Concise Statistics of International Students in China compiled by the International Exchange Department of the Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China, and corresponding publication records including the source country names in the titles, from the Web of Science database of Clarivate Analytics. We then used the fixed-effects negative binomial model and instrumental variable approach to explore the linkage from ISM to knowledge production and found that ISM led to the destination countries’ scientific research on foreign countries. The findings shed light on the discussion of the global mobility of talent, and contribute to the understanding of ISM's influence on science, the measurement of which is promising in future studies.

Shifting landscape suitability for cocaine trafficking through Central America in response to counterdrug interdiction

Cocaine traffickers, or ‘narco-traffickers’, successfully exploit the heterogeneous landscapes of Central America for transnational smuggling. Narco-traffickers successfully adapt to disruptions from counterdrug interdiction efforts by spatially adjusting smuggling routes to evade detection, and by doing so bring collateral damages, such as deforestation, corruption, and violence, to new areas. This study is novel for its integration of landscape suitability analysis with criminological theory to understand the locations of these spatial adaptations by narco-traffickers as intentional, logical, and predictable choices based on the socio-environmental characteristics of Central America’s landscapes. Multi-level, mixed effects negative binomial regression models predict the suitability of landscapes for cocaine trafficking across 17 departamentos (the unit of analysis) in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama from 2007 to 2018. Informed by long-term research in the region, independent variables included proximity to roads, country borders, and international ports, indigenous territories, population density, and protected areas. The year of peak interdiction (measured by kg of cocaine seized) in each departamento was used to analyze spatial shifts in landscape suitability before and after maximum counterdrug interdiction pressure. We find that areas with lower population density and closer proximity to international borders became more suitable following peak interdiction—i.e, they are more likely to be sought out by traffickers seeking to avoid further disruptions from counternarcotic efforts. Additionally, indigenous territories were disproportionately exploited as cocaine trafficking routes following significant interdiction activities by law enforcement. While interdiction may reduce the suitability of targeted locations, it can also unintentionally increase the attractiveness of other locations. Our study pushes criminological theory through its application to a unique space/time context, and it advances land system science by considering landscape suitability for logistical rather than productive uses. Policy implications are clear. Since interdiction resources are limited relative to the overall amount of trafficking activity, knowing which landscape features are viewed as suitable by traffickers can in the short-term guide interdiction deployment strategies, and in the longer term build strategies to mitigate associated harms from trafficking where they are most likely.

Police Fatal Force and Crime Reporting: A Test of Community Responses to Fatal Police-Civilian Encounters

Public perceptions of police legitimacy and effectiveness have been challenged by recent high-profile use of fatal force incidents by the police. Prior scholarship suggests that that controversial incidents involving police use of force can engender distrust of the police. Further, the neighborhood effects literature has demonstrated the importance of community context for police-community relationships and differential responses to controversial incidents by neighborhoods. The current study assesses how communities of varying racial compositions and levels of economic disadvantage respond to police fatal force incidents by assessing neighborhood crime reporting behaviors. Using monthly 911 call data from Los Angeles, CA neighborhoods, this study explores this relationship with a series of fixed effects negative binomial regression models that model police homicides and crime reporting over a seven-year time period. Comparisons between neighborhoods of varying racial/ethnic composition and structural conditions permit the comparison of differential responses across neighborhood context. The results indicate that neighborhood crime reporting decreases following fatal police use of force incidents. Further, these responses varied across neighborhood contexts. Predominately Hispanic neighborhoods experienced greater declines in crime reporting compared to predominately White neighborhoods. Neighborhoods characterized by high levels of concentrated disadvantaged also experienced greater reductions in crime reporting compared to their more advantaged counterparts. Utilization of the formal legal system can be challenged by controversial police incidents; however, these effects are dependent on neighborhood context. Future research should explore how spatial proximity and media portrayal of incidents influence community responses.

The consequences of household member incarceration on justice-involved youth

ABSTRACT Household member incarceration has only increased in prevalence due to the era of mass incarceration; however prior studies have focused exclusively on the impacts of parental imprisonment. In an effort to expand the literature, the current study examines (1) whether having a household family member incarcerated leads to within-individual changes in offending and substance use over time and (2) whether these effects vary according to the type of family member who was incarcerated. Using the Pathways to Desistance Study, fixed effects negative binomial and Poisson regression models were performed on the sample of justice-involved adolescents and young adults. The findings demonstrate that experiencing any type of household member incarceration increases offending, drug use, and binge drinking behaviors. Moreover, a sibling incarceration effect was found in which experiencing sibling incarceration increased offending, drug use, and binge drinking behaviors. Additional findings and implications are discussed.

Gasoline prices and their relationship to the number of fatal crashes on U.S. roads

Economic factors are assumed to have substantial effects on transportation crash trends. This study makes a comprehensive examination of the relationship between the retail gasoline price, and fatal traffic crashes from 2007 to 2016 in the U.S. Random effect negative binomial (RENB) regression models are used to investigate the relationship while controlling for the other effective factors. This is achieved by developing appropriate crash prediction models. Based on the role of gender and rider's transportation mode in interpreting the prediction results, seven models are developed to investigate the relationship between the inflation adjusted gasoline price and the number of fatal crashes in male, female, motorcyclist, non-motorcyclist, bicyclist, pedestrian, and total groups. Our findings suggest that increasing gasoline prices will not significantly alter the number of total fatal crashes. On the other hand, it is estimated that a one-dollar increase in adjusted gasoline price is associated with a 24.4% increase in the number of fatal motorcycle crashes (p-value = 3.7e-14), a 1.9% decrease in the number of fatal non-motorcycle crashes (p-value = 0.02), and a 8% decrease in the number of fatal pedestrian crashes (p-value = 0.08). There is no noticeable difference between males and females in response to the gasoline price changes.