Effectiveness Of Capital Controls Research Articles

The impact of capital Inflow's features on the effectiveness of capital controls - Evidence from multinational data

This paper explores how features of capital inflow affect the effectiveness of capital controls from three aspects: capital types, inflow intensity, and channels diversity. Empirical results by using multinational data show that capital controls are more effective in an economy with lower degree of capital account openness, when there are more short-term capital inflows and in an intense inflows period. This study is helpful to explain the inconsistency of conclusions about the effectiveness of capital controls in existing studies, and has certain policy implications to curb excessive capital flows for governments.

Das reformas liberalizantes ao pós-crise financeira global: a visão em mudança do FMI sobre liberalização da conta financeira e controles de capital

Abstract The view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on capital account liberalization and capital controls has undergone important reassessments over the past two and a half decades. Several financial crises, including the 2007-2008 global financial one (GFC), propelled it to partially defend the use of capital controls to eliminate certain dysfunctions, such as financial risks and pressures on exchange rate appreciation. Our study shows that this reorientation in the scope of IMF articles also configured a response to empirical studies that pointed to flaws in orthodox theory about capital account liberalization and those that investigated the effectiveness of capital controls in emerging economies in the post-global financial crisis period. However, we are yet to find no explicit defense in favor of the use of capital controls and the permanent management of exchange rates, despite relevant empirical evidence indicating the effectiveness of these measures.

Effectiveness of capital controls in dampening international shocks

This study is a contribution to the ongoing debate on whether capital controls are effective in buffering international shocks and reducing capital flows volatility. The author demonstrates that capital controls can considerably mitigate the effects of monetary and exchange rate shocks and reduce the volatility of capital inflows to emerging markets. This study analyses quarterly data of 28 emerging economies over the period between 2000 and 2015 and proposes two methods to identify capital controls actions. Using panel analysis, autoregressive distributed lag, and local projections approaches, this study finds that tighter capital controls may diminish monetary and exchange rate shocks and reduce capital inflows volatility. Furthermore, capital controls respond anti-cyclically to monetary shocks. Under capital controls, countries with floating exchange rate regimes have more potential to buffer monetary shocks. The author also finds that capital controls on inflows are more effective for reducing the volatility of capital flows compared to capital controls on outflows.

Sectoral capital flows: Covariates, co-movements, and controls

This paper assembles a comprehensive sectoral capital flows dataset for 64 advanced and emerging economies from 2000 to 18, including direct, portfolio, and other investment to and from central banks (CB), general government (GG), banks (BKs), non-financial corporates (NFCs) and other financial corporates (OFCs) and a corresponding dataset on capital controls imposed on these sectors. Using these datasets, this paper illustrates the usefulness of a sectoral approach in assessing capital flow covariates, co-movements, and the effectiveness of capital controls. The findings underscore the sensitivity and cyclicality of OFC flows; and offer new evidence on the impact of sectoral controls particularly for BK and OFC sectors in lowering gross inflows to these sectors.

Attenuating international financial shocks: the role of capital controls

PurposeBy reinforcing monetary policy independence, reducing international financing pressures and avoiding high-risk takings, capital controls strengthen the stability of the financial system and then reduce the volatility of capital inflows. The objective of this study was to conduct an empirical examination of this hypothesis. This topic has received strong support in the theoretical literature; however, empirical work has been quite limited, with few empirical studies that provide direct empirical support to this hypothesis.Design/methodology/approachThis study analyzed quarterly data of 32 emerging economies over the period between 2000 and 2015 and proposes two methods to identify capital control actions. Using panel analysis, Autoregressive Distributed Lag and local projections approaches.FindingsThis study found that tighter capital controls may diminish monetary and exchange rate shocks and reduce capital inflows volatility. Furthermore, capital controls respond counter-cyclically to monetary shocks. Under capital controls, countries with floating exchange rate regimes have more potential to buffer monetary shocks. We also found that capital controls on inflows are more effective for reducing the volatility of capital inflows compared to capital controls on outflows.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the question of the effectiveness of capital controls in attenuating the effects of international shocks and reducing the volatility of capital flows. Previous studies have mostly focused on the role of macroprudential regulation; however, there is a lack of systematic effects of capital controls on monetary and exchange rate policies. To our knowledge, this is the first preliminary study to suggest that capital controls may buffer monetary and exchange rate shocks and reduce the volatility of capital inflows. This study investigates the novel notion that capital controls allow for a notable counter-cyclical response of monetary and exchange rate policies to international financial shocks.

Interaction Effect of Capital Controls and Macroeconomic Policies

This study highlights recent approaches to reducing capital flow volatility using capital controls. Through a SVAR model, variance decomposition and shocks analysis, applied to 22 developed and developing countries over the period between 2000 and 2017, this study examines the effectiveness of capital controls in reducing capital flow volatility. The results show that the portfolio balance approach of capital controls can be applied and enables to predict capital inflow movements. The findings show asymmetric impacts of capital controls, where a floating exchange rate allows capital controls to be more effective compared to a fixed exchange rate. Furthermore, controls on capital inflows are more useful than controls on outflows. This study found that the exchange rate policy is more responsive to capital controls actions compared to the monetary policy.

Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence

This paper synthesizes recent advances in the theoretical and empirical literature on capital controls. We start by observing that international capital flows have both benefits and costs, but some of these are not internalized by individual actors and thus constitute externalities. The theoretical literature has identified pecuniary externalities and aggregate demand externalities that respectively contribute to financial instability and recessions. These externalities provide a natural rationale for countercyclical capital controls that lean against boom and bust cycles in international capital flows. The empirical literature has developed several measures of capital controls to capture different aspects of capital account openness. We evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of different measures and provide an overview of the empirical findings on the effectiveness of capital controls in addressing the externalities identified by the theory literature, that is, in reducing financial fragility and enhancing macroeconomic stability. We also discuss strategies to deal with the endogeneity of capital controls in such statistical exercises. We conclude by providing an overview of the historical and current debates on the role of capital controls in macroeconomic management and their relationship to the academic literature. (JEL D62, F32, F33, F38, F44)

The Multiple Effects of Capital Controls

Capital controls are seen as a means to promote financial stability or improve macroeconomic adjustment in economies with nominal rigidities and suboptimal monetary policy. Such controls may take various forms, including explicit or implicit taxation of cross‑border financial flows and dual or multiple exchange rate systems. Using a quarter dataset on capital controls actions in 27 emerging economies from 2010 to 2018, the study analyzes the effectiveness of capital controls (CCs) along different angles. Since the 2008 financial crisis, strengthening capital controls has allowed more monetary policy autonomy and exchange rate stability, verifying the Mundell‑Fleming trilemma model. Following CCs, the results show that accumulating international reserves may compensate for the loss of inflows and lead to more effective policies. Tighter CCs on inflows cause significant spillovers, specifically in the conditions of liquidity abundance. These spillovers originate from the problem of policy coordination of emerging economies and are mainly caused by capital controls being used as an instrument to manage capital flows. For governments that have to manage the risks associated with inflow surges or disruptive outflows, capital controls need to play a key role.

The Effectiveness of Capital Controls

We investigate the effectiveness of capital controls using capital control indicators specific to several asset categories. The effectiveness of these policy instruments is analyzed along different angles. Specifically, we assess whether capital controls are effective in reducing the volume of capital flows, in reducing the probability of capital surges and flights, in strengthening financial stability, and in affecting the exchange rate. Our results point out three main conclusions. Capital controls are generally effective; the effectiveness of capital controls is differentiated for advanced and emerging economies; we find the largest effects on capital flows. We also show that capital controls are associated with a smaller probability of capital surges and flights, and, in emerging economies, with an undervalued exchange rate. We find some evidence that controls are associated with an improved financial stability, by reducing credit growth and FX currency loans: however, this evidence is not fully robust.

Dynamics of capital controls: panel evidence from Asia

PurposeThis study empirically examines the effect of capital controls on the volume and composition of capital flows at aggregated as well as at disaggregated level by different asset classes such as debt, FDI, equity, and derivatives.Design/methodology/approachSeveral dynamic panel SYS-GMM models are employed on two sets of unique data on cross-border capital flows and capital control index along with control variables at aggregated and disaggregated level by different asset classes during 1995–2015 for a sample of 31 Asian economies.FindingsEconometric findings suggest that higher capital controls effectively reduce gross capital flows. The reduction in gross capital flows is largely found to be on account of effectiveness of controls on equity flows. However, the impact of controls on overall debt and derivative flows is found to be insignificant. Further, it was found that an increase in direct capital controls disaggregated by inflow and outflow categories significantly reduced the inflow of debt and equity + FDI flows and outflow of equity + FDI and derivative flows. Finally, the study did not find any substitution effect (due to indirect controls) and net effect on capital flows.Practical implicationsResults of such empirical examination may enable governments in respective countries to pursue prudent and rational capital controls as a shield against capital flight and shock transmission.Social implicationsPreventing capital flight through effective controls has macroeconomic benefits such as maintaining stability in income, growth, interest rate, exchange rate, and employment levels for the society.Originality/valueThe primary contribution of the study is the analysis of effectiveness of capital controls disaggregated by different asset categories such as debt, equity, FDI, and derivatives using two unique recent data sets for a large sample of Asian economies.

The domestic impacts and spillovers of capital controls

The effectiveness of capital controls has still not been established, and if they are indefinite they create distortions. This study uses quarterly data on capital controls in 25 Asian and Latin American countries from 2000 to 2019. We present further evidence on the internal and multilateral impacts of capital controls using a Panel VAR model with variance decomposition and impulse-response function analysis. The results show that domestically, capital controls, became more effective after the global financial crisis, with more monetary policy autonomy and exchange rate policy stability. Contrarily, these controls do not affect international reserve accumulation, and a combination of policies, capital controls, and reserves is required to assist governments? decisions. Internationally, capital controls cause negative spillovers that require policy coordination between the countries setting controls and those consequently receiving massive inflows.

Sectoral Capital Flows: Covariates, Co-movements, and Controls

This paper assembles a comprehensive sectoral capital flows dataset for 64 advanced and emerging economies from 2000-18, including direct, portfolio, and other investment to and from central banks (CB), general government (GG), banks (BKs), non-financial corporates (NFCs) and other financial corporates (OFCs) and a corresponding dataset on capital controls imposed on these sectors. Using these datasets, this paper illustrates the usefulness of a sectoral approach in assessing capital flow covariates, co-movements, and the effectiveness of capital controls. The findings underscore the sensitivity and cyclicality of OFC flows; and offer new evidence on the impact of sectoral controls on BKs, NFCs, and OFCs in lowering gross inflows to these sectors.

Capital controls: a tool to protect an economy under pressure The cases of Cyprus, a eurozone member, and Iceland

This paper considers the effectiveness of capital controls as a protective action. We analyse the recent cases of Iceland and Cyprus and examine the extent to which the controls on free capital movement delivered the outcome that motivated their imposition in each country. The methodology used examines main macro-economic indicators and attempts to locate significant variations pre and post capital controls. The results indicate that controls were only partially successful. In Iceland they did not manage to control the pressure over foreign exchange rate. In case of Cyprus controls achieved only partially to control outflows. Belonging to the eurozone was not proven to be a negative factor for success of the measures in Cyprus.

Capital controls, macroprudential regulation, and the bank balance sheet channel

We incorporate a banking sector with balance sheet frictions into a model of a small open economy and compare the effectiveness of capital controls and macroprudential regulation. We show that the welfare-improving effect of capital controls is larger than that of macroprudential regulation if the degree of financial friction between domestic banks and foreign investors is high, while the welfare-improving effect of macroprudential regulation is larger than that of capital controls if the degree of financial friction is low. We also show that the welfare ranking of the two policies depends on whether an economy suffers from liability dollarization.

Capital Account Policies in Emerging Asian Economies: Are They Effective in the 2000s?

This paper examines the effectiveness of capital account policy in terms of its ability to affect the volume and composition of capital flows, relieve pressures on real exchange rates, and foster monetary policy independence. Ten emerging Asian economies are used as case studies to assess the effectiveness of capital account policy during 2000–2015. The results suggest that some types of capital controls are effective in reducing the volume of capital flows and pressure on real exchange rates. The choice of exchange rate regime matters in terms of the effectiveness of capital controls for fostering monetary policy independence. Although some types of capital controls are effective in creating macroeconomic stability, implementing capital account policy needs to be undertaken with caution. This is because substitution or complementarity among capital controls is evident, both within and across countries in the region. It seems that strong economic fundamentals are more important than capital account policy for changing the composition of capital inflows toward more stable and long-term flows.

The Effectiveness of Capital Controls

The goal of this work is a systematic analysis of the effectiveness of capital controls in reducing the volume of capital flows and the probability of extreme events (surges and flights), strengthening financial stability and affecting the exchange rate. We find that controls significantly reduce capital flows, even though the effectiveness varies across economies and types of investment. Moreover capital controls tend to reduce the probability of extreme episodes. With regard to financial stability objectives, controls on banking inflows reduce domestic credit growth, but this effect is mainly driven by advanced economies. Controls on capital inflows reduce the share of domestic loans denominated in foreign currency. Finally, our estimates suggest that capital controls on inflows tend to be associated with an undervalued exchange rate only in emerging market economies.

On the effectiveness of capital controls during the Great Recession: The Brazilian experience (2007–2013)

ABSTRACTIn this study, we analyze the impact in Brazil of a tax on external capital flows called “Imposto Sobre Operações Finaceiras” (IOF), by following data on a monthly basis from 2007 to 2013. Our goal is to determine whether a change in tax legislation can produce significant effects on the pattern of financial inflows from abroad. Using univariate structural models, our results show that changes in the IOF produced structural breaks on foreign portfolio investments.

The microstructure of exchange rate management: FX intervention and capital controls in Brazil

This article uses a microstructure approach to analyse the effectiveness of capital controls introduced in Brazil to counter an appreciation of the Real. Based on a rich data set from the Brazilian foreign exchange market, we estimate a reduced-form VAR to characterize the interaction of the central bank, financial and commercial customers in times of regulatory policy measures. We find that capital controls change market participants’ behaviour, and that central bank interventions elicit a significant response in financial order flow. Referring to the source of order flow, we find no direct price impact by financial flows and thus no evidence that the appreciation of the Real is driven by financial customers’ activity. Instead, commercial customers seem to be a primary driver of the Real within our model.

Do Capital Controls Enhance Monetary Independence?

AbstractInternational monetary policy trilemma—the tradeoff among exchange rate stability, monetary independence, and unrestricted capital mobility—is an important constraint for policy makers in an open economy. This paper investigates an aspect of the hypothesis that has received relatively less attention: whether a decrease in capital mobility through imposition of capital controls, while holding the degree of exchange rate stability constant, will enhance monetary independence. Using a panel dataset covering 88 countries for the 1995–2010 period and the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation, we find that: (1) capital controls help improve a country's monetary independence; (2) the effectiveness of capital controls depends on the types of assets and the direction of flows that are imposed; and (3) the choice of exchange rate regime has an important impact on the effectiveness of capital controls on monetary independence.

Capital Controls and Macroprudential Measures: What Are They Good For?

Assessing the effectiveness of capital controls and prudential measures is complicated by selection bias and endogeneity; countries which change their capital flow management (CFM) policies often share certain characteristics and are responding to changes in variables (such as capital flows and exchange rates) that are intended to be influenced by these policies. This paper attempts to adjust for these challenges by estimating propensity scores and using different algorithms to match control groups with treatment countries that adjust their CFMs. We also create a new database with detailed information on weekly changes in controls on capital inflows and capital outflows and prudential measures for 60 countries from 2009-2011. The results indicate that certain types of CFMs can significantly reduce financial fragilities (such as bank leverage, credit growth, and exposure to short-term debt). Most CFMs do not significantly affect other key targets, however, such as exchange rates, capital flows, interest rate differentials, inflation, equity indices, and different measures of volatility. The main exception is that removing controls on capital outflows can reduce real exchange rate appreciation. Therefore, certain CFMs can be effective in accomplishing specific goals—especially for reducing financial vulnerabilities—but many popular measures appear to be less effective in accomplishing their stated aims.