Effective Risk Reduction Measures Research Articles

Mapping the risk reduction benefits of coral reef conservation – Hawaiʻi case study

Effective disaster risk reduction measures are vital to coastal communities around the world. While nature-based solutions provide coastal communities with a promising alternative to traditional engineering-based solutions; these solutions are often overlooked by communities when planning and implementing disaster risk reduction measures. This study builds upon the literature that demonstrates the effectiveness of coral reef conservation to mitigate coastal flood risk. Our approach utilizes freely available tools and data to quantify the economic value of coral reef conservation for the Hawaiian Islands. We explore a scenario that depicts coastal flooding if the upper 1 m of the coral reef were to be lost. The study analyzes the Average Annual Loss (AAL) and losses avoided based on a series of 4 coastal flood scenario return periods with and without coral reefs. This case study finds that the preservation of the upper 1 m of coral reefs for the main islands of Hawaiʻi provides the state with $629 million in annual losses avoided to buildings. A hot spot analysis of the losses avoided identifies areas where conservation efforts could be prioritized. Our findings provide additional support to the use of nature-based solutions as an effective disaster risk reduction measure, and provides communities and stakeholders with a methodology that can be implemented using readily available data and tools.

Radar (sentinel 1 data)-based flood mapping in Rivers State, Nigeria

The existence of floods in Nigeria, a notable environmental issue, is primarily linked to human-induced causes. These are largely linked to global warming causing shifts in climate patterns. Flooding is not always a direct result of preceding factors like heavy rain or dam overflow. Instead, it is frequently triggered by human actions such as overloading main rivers or inappropriate land use. The purpose of this study was to pinpoint areas prone to flooding in Rivers State. The main goals included the development of a spatial map depicting areas susceptible to floods. The research leverages multiple data sources, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Digital Elevation and Rivers State Administrative Map, as well as Sentinel-1 SAR data. Assessment of potential surface runoff and identifying low probability flood-prone areas was conducted through Change Detection method on Google Earth Engine platform. ArcGIS and QGIS played a significant role in assessing the vulnerability to flood risks. The primary analyses conducted involved overlaps analysis. The study shows a vulnerability to flooding in Rivers State across a total area of 29,660 hectares, equating to 2.75% of the state's total size. This research provides important information that can aid decision-making processes in disaster preparedness, land use planning, and the implementation of effective risk reduction measures in Rivers State, and Nigeria at large. We strongly endorse the creation of Geospatial Information Systems to record the documentation of flood zones.

Melanoma risk prediction based on a polygenic risk score and clinical risk factors.

Melanoma is one of the most commonly diagnosed cancers in the Western world: third in Australia, fifth in the USA and sixth in the European Union. Predicting an individual's personal risk of developing melanoma may aid them in undertaking effective risk reduction measures. The objective of this study was to use the UK Biobank to predict the 10-year risk of melanoma using a newly developed polygenic risk score (PRS) and an existing clinical risk model. We developed the PRS using a matched case-control training dataset (N = 16 434) in which age and sex were controlled by design. The combined risk score was developed using a cohort development dataset (N = 54 799) and its performance was tested using a cohort testing dataset (N = 54 798). Our PRS comprises 68 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.639 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.618-0.661]. In the cohort testing data, the hazard ratio per SD of the combined risk score was 1.332 (95% CI = 1.263-1.406). Harrell's C-index was 0.685 (95% CI = 0.654-0.715). Overall, the standardized incidence ratio was 1.193 (95% CI = 1.067-1.335). By combining a PRS and a clinical risk score, we have developed a risk prediction model that performs well in terms of discrimination and calibration. At an individual level, information on the 10-year risk of melanoma can motivate people to take risk-reduction action. At the population level, risk stratification can allow more effective population-level screening strategies to be implemented.

Approaches to assess land degradation risk: a synthesis

Land degradation adversely affects the well-being of approximately 3.2 billion people worldwide and results in a loss of about 10% of annual gross domestic product. Degradation dynamics are often creeping and non-linear, hence the adverse consequences are often not immediately perceived. In consequence, methods for assessing future risks of land degradation and risk reduction strategies are trailing far behind those that have been developed within disaster risk research for natural hazards that appear as shocks, such as floods or earthquakes. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to analyze existing land degradation risk assessment approaches to assess what is hindering a link to land management strategies. The synthesis presented here reveals that while approaches to calculate land degradation risk have evolved to capture ever more processes and factors involved in land degradation, no consistent conceptual framework for land degradation risk has been developed to the present day. Key identified short-comings are that risk terminology is not consistent across and within studies and that there is often no distinction between a degradation status assessment and an assessment of future risk. Damage is rarely explicitly considered or quantified, and in the majority of studies there is no clear distinction between processes and drivers, hazard and vulnerability. Finally, novel conceptual ideas integrating the risk framework developed within disaster risk research are proposed to stimulate debate and facilitate the development of effective risk reduction measures for land degradation.

Assessment of ductile dike behavior as a novel flood risk reduction measure.

Dikes are an effective flood risk reduction measure in deltaic areas. Present risk analyses consist often of decoupled calculations of probabilities of dike failure and calculation of consequences of flooding given dike failure. However, the flood defense design determines not only the probability of failure, but influences the consequences of flooding as well. Especially when the dike has a ductile failure and breach growth behavior, due to a structural robust design, the consequences of flooding reduce. In this article, we present a novel assessment of risks and investments, valuing structural robustness of a construction type, represented by its ductile behavior during high loads. Therefore, the consecutive occurrence of initial dike failure mechanisms, failure path development, breach growth, and consequences is modeled integral and time-dependent. The investments consist of the costs to reinforce or reconstruct the flood defense to behave relatively ductile. This integral assessment enables to compare flood impacts of different construction types and different dimensions of designs. We applied it on a case in a riverine area in the Netherlands. The results show that the total societal costs and the individual risks on victims are very dependent on the construction type. The risk profile of a polder protected by a brittle or a ductile dike differs significantly. The brittle sand dike in the case requires larger dimensions than the more ductile dike with a claycore.

Tradeoffs between ventilation, air mixing, and passenger density for the airborne transmission risk in airport transportation vehicles

Airport transportation vehicles, such as buses, aerotrains, and shuttles, provide important passenger transfer services in airports. This study quantitatively investigated COVID-19 aerosol infection risk and identified acceptable operational conditions, such as passenger occupancy rates and duration of rides, given the performance of vehicle ventilation. The greatest risk to the largest number of passengers is from an index case whose exhaled breath would take the longest time to exit the vehicle. The study identified such a case based on ventilation patterns, and it tracked the spread of viral aerosols (5 μm) by using the Wells-Riley equation to predict aerosol infection risk distribution. These distributions allowed a definition of an imperfect mixing degree (δ) as the ratio of actual risk and the calculated risk under a perfect mixing condition, and further derived regression equations to predict δ in the far-field (FF) and near-field (NF) of each passenger. These results revealed an order of magnitude higher aerosol infection risk in NF than in FF. For example, with a ventilation rate of 58 ACH (air changes per hour) and a 45% occupancy rate, unmasked passengers should stay up to 15 min in the bus and 35 min in the shuttle to limit infection risk in NF within 10%. These also indicate that masking is an important and effective risk reduction measure in transportation vehicles, especially important in NF. Overall, the analysis of imperfect air mixing allows direct comparison of risks in different transportation vehicles and a structured approach to development of policy recommendations.

A New Approach to the Optimal Placement of the Viscous Damper Based on the Static Force Distribution Pattern

Viscous dampers (VDs) are currently used an effective earthquake risk reduction measure. Due to the high cost of this type of dampers, an optimal damper layout across the stories will specifically improve the seismic response and reduce building costs. This paper introduces a new simple three-stage method to determine the optimal placement of VDs on different stories of reinforced concrete structures. In the first stage, the damping demand of each story was determined using the distribution pattern of earthquake forces by the equivalent static method and the story velocity obtained through time-history analysis. In the second stage, the number of dampers required for the structure was calculated, and the location and damping percentage of dampers were precisely determined through an iterative process in the third stage. An indicator representing all basic structural responses was used to evaluate the multiple choices for the damper layout. This process was evaluated for 4, 8 story concrete frames under a near-field earthquake. The results indicated the efficiency of the proposed method in determining the location and damping of VDs on different stories of the structure.

Cross-cultural gender differences in cruising risk perceptions: A study of young adults

The purpose of this study was to examine how gender and cultural values displayed by different nations play a role in determining differences in young adults' risk perceptions in the cruise ship context. The study employed the two-dimensional model of perceived risk, namely perceived outcome severity and perceived probability, to measure risk perception. The study conducted an online self-administered questionnaire surveying 527 respondents whose age ranged from 18 to 35 years. Guided by Cultural Theory of Risk and Hofstede's cultural dimensions, the findings indicated the significant interaction effects between gender, nationality and cultural values on cruising risk perceptions after controlling for age and past cruise experience. The findings provided important insights for cruise marketers and operators to target appropriate cruisers with suitable marketing campaigns and implement effective risk reduction measures to enhance cruise experiences.

A New Inclusive Volcanic Risk Ranking, Part 1: Methodology

The ever-increasing population living near active volcanoes highlights the need for the implementation of effective risk reduction measures to save lives and reduce the impact of volcanic unrest and eruptions. To help identify volcanic systems associated with potential high risk and prioritize risk reduction strategies, we introduce a new Volcanic Risk Ranking (VRR) methodology that integrates hazard, exposure, and vulnerability as factors that increase risk, and resilience as a factor that reduces risk. Here we present a description of the methodology using Mexican volcanoes as a case study, while a regional application to Latin American volcanoes is presented in a companion paper (Guimarães et al., submitted). With respect to existing strategies, the proposed VRR methodology expands the parameters associated with hazard and exposure and includes the analysis of 4 dimensions of vulnerability (physical, systemic, social, economic) and of resilience. In particular, we propose 41 parameters to be analyzed, including 9 hazard parameters, 9 exposure parameters, 10 vulnerability parameters and 13 resilience parameters. Since the number of parameters evaluated for each risk factor is different, they are normalized to have the same weight based on dedicated sensitivity analyses. In order to best illustrate the methodology, the proposed VRR is here applied to 13 Mexican volcanoes and compared with other approaches. We found that the volcanoes associated with the highest combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability (3-factor VRR) for this geographic area are Tacaná and El Chichón regardless of the analyzed time window of eruption occurrence (i.e., <1 and <10 ka). Nonetheless, the volcanoes with eruption <1 ka that require the most urgent actions as associated with no or few resilience measures in place are Michoacán-Guanajuato Volcanic Field and San Martín Tuxtla (4-factor VRR); the top volcanoes in the 4-factor VRR with eruption <10 ka are Michoacán-Guanajuato Volcanic Field and Las Cumbres.

Association of Mercury Exposure and Maternal Sociodemographics on Birth Outcomes of Indigenous and Tribal Women in Suriname.

Information regarding adverse birth outcomes (ABO) of Indigenous and Tribal women living in the remote tropical rainforest of Suriname, where mercury (Hg) use is abundant in artisanal gold mining, is not available. In the context of a health system analysis, we examined the association between Hg exposure, maternal sociodemographics on the ABO of Indigenous and Tribal women living in Suriname’s interior and its capital, Paramaribo. ABO were determined in pregnant women enrolled from December 2016 to July 2019 in the Caribbean Consortium for Environmental and Occupational Health prospective environmental epidemiologic cohort study. Associations were explored using Pearson’s χ2-test and the Mann–Whitney U-test. Among 351 singleton participants, 32% were Indigenous, residing mainly in the interior (86.8%), and 23.1% had ABO. Indigenous participants had higher rates of ABO (29.8% vs. 19.8%) and preterm birth (PTB) (21.2% vs. 12.4%), higher Hg levels, delivered at a younger age, were less educated, and had lower household income compared to Tribal participants. Multivariate logistic regression models revealed that Indigenous participants had higher odds of ABO (OR = 3.60; 95% CI 1.70–7.63) and PTB (OR = 3.43; 95% CI 1.48–7.96) compared with Tribal participants, independent of Hg exposure and age at delivery. These results highlight the importance of effective risk reduction measures in support of Indigenous mothers, families, and communities.

Quantitative risk assessment of gas leakage and explosion accident consequences inside residential buildings

In this study, a quantitative risk assessment methodology is developed for gas leakage and explosion accident consequences inside residential buildings. Meanwhile, the effective risk reduction measures are also proposed. The gas leakage and dispersion behavior is firstly analyzed to provide a real initial scenario for the subsequent explosion simulation using CFD code FLACS. And then, the explosion consequences with a real inhomogeneous flammable gas cloud are accurately predicted. Based on the probit model, the probabilities of different adverse impacts (i.e., eardrum rupture, lung damage and head impact) caused by gas explosion accidents are estimated, respectively. Combining the probability with the consequence severity scores, a risk-based concept is adopted to calculate the explosion risk index at any region of residential buildings. Meanwhile, the higher risk index among these adverse impacts is chosen at each grid point. In addition, a grid-based concept and isoline are further used to represent this explosion risk index. Furthermore, the effects of vent area ratio and broken pressure of glasses are investigated to propose the effective risk reduction measures. This methodology is applied to a typical residential building, located in Harbin, China. The results show that the explosion consequence severity at any region of residential buildings could be presented quantitatively. In addition, the risk region distribution of gas explosion inside residential buildings could be also identified. Furthermore, the minimum vent area ratio and the maximum broken pressure of glasses could be recommended to reduce gas explosion risk index. This study provides an effective analysis method and contributes to develop safety measures and improve the emergency response plans for gas leakage and explosion accidents inside residential buildings.

Influential Factors Affecting Protective Coping Behaviors of Flood Disaster: A Case Study in Shenzhen, China.

As the risk of urban flooding increases worldwide, floods seriously endanger the safety of people’s lives and property. Understanding the protective coping behaviors of the public in flood disasters is crucial to the implementation of effective flood mitigation measures and flood risk management. In this study, influential factors affecting protective coping behaviors in the face of flood disasters were identified, and the effects of these factors were discussed as well. Shenzhen City in China was selected as the study area, in which a questionnaire survey of 339 respondents was carried out in three flood-prone districts. Correlation analysis was conducted to preselect potential influential factors. Then, two linear regression models were established to identify main influential factors and to explore the interaction effects of these factors. The results indicated that age, monthly income, flood experience, trust in government and insurance willingness were main influential factors of protective coping behaviors. Trust in government had the highest positive correlation coefficient, while monthly income and age were negatively associated with protective coping behaviors. The interaction between insurance willingness and monthly income jointly affected protective coping behaviors of the public. The findings of this study could help authorities better understand the public’s intention to cope with flood and design effective risk reduction measures, not only for Shenzhen, but also for many other similar cities that facing with the same situation.

Qualitative risk assessment of transmission pathways of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus at live poultry markets in Dhaka city, Bangladesh.

Analysis of environmental samples obtained from the Live Poultry Markets (LPMs) of Dhaka City, Bangladesh, has revealed that the highest degree of prevalence of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (HPAI, H5N1), besides other subtypes of the LPAI virus, poses the plausible risk of transmission of these viruses between human and poultry species. The present study was conducted using the OIE risk analysis framework to assess the risk level of each pathway successively. The estimated risk parameters were integrated towards to obtain the overall risk level for each specific HPAI transmission pathway using the matrix adapted by Cristobel Zepeda accompanying other expert consultations. The relevant data obtained from published and unpublished sources, together with survey data of field observations, were used to formulate and confirm the risk pathways and their associated risks. The results revealed that the risk of the release of the HPAI virus was medium when exposure was high. Additionally, the consequence would be considered very high with a medium degree of uncertainty for all parameters. Ultimately, the overall risk for transmission was estimated as medium with a medium degree of uncertainty. The findings of this study reveal that there is a significant threat that HPAI virus transmission could occur among poultry and humans and effectively sustain within the environment of the LPMs. Our findings are primarily focused on public health considerations, the hygienic slaughter of poultry and the relevant cleaning and sanitation practices conducted in the LPMs to support evidence-based decision-making processes. The findings of the study have the potential to be used to formulate effective risk reduction measures and can be further adapted in low-resource settings without major infrastructural changes required of the LPMs. All of which would reduce the risk of HPAI virus release and further lessen the degree of exposure and transmission in established LPMs.

A framework for assessing the capability of maritime search and rescue in the south China sea

Maritime search and rescue (SAR) services are critical for the safety of humans and property in marine environments. This paper proposes a comprehensive framework to assess the capability of maritime SAR in the South China Sea (SCS). The framework comprises three steps. First, rescue vessel response times are estimated by a geographic information system-based response time model. Second, maritime SAR services demand is calculated by combining ship location data and marine incident data. Third, three assessment criteria, namely primary coverage, weighted coverage, and mean access time, are determined to quantitatively assess the capability of maritime SAR. This framework was then applied to the SCS in the analysis of three scenarios in which the SAR response system was defined according to the rescue mechanism (e.g., noncooperation vs. cooperation between countries bordering the SCS). The results showed that only a limited area near the coasts can be reached in a short response time when countries do not cooperate. It was also determined it is difficult for a single country to implement SAR missions effectively while covering the whole SCS; a joint SAR mechanism would allow for better outcomes regarding the performance of maritime SAR services. Furthermore, maritime SAR capacity can be significantly improved when island rescue bases are built. The study offers insights to help policy makers take actions concerning strategic planning to develop effective risk reduction measures and improve maritime SAR capacity in the SCS.

Nutritional prevention of colorectal cancer.

The preventability estimate for colorectal cancer (CRC) is approximately 50%, highlighting the huge potential for altering modifiable lifestyle factors (including diet and body fatness) in order to reduce risk of this common malignancy. There is strong evidence that dietary factors (including intake of wholegrains, fibre, red and processed meat and alcohol) affect CRC risk. The lack of positive intervention trials and limited mechanistic understanding likely explain limited public health impact of epidemiological observations, to date. An alternative strategy for nutritional prevention of CRC is use of supplements that provide higher individual nutrient exposure than obtained through the diet (chemoprevention). There are positive data for calcium and/or vitamin D and the n-3 fatty acid EPA from polyp prevention trials using colorectal adenoma as a CRC risk biomarker. Although CRC is an obesity-related malignancy, there remains a paucity of observational data supporting intentional weight loss for CRC risk reduction. Some types of obesity surgeries (Roux-en-Y gastric bypass) might actually increase subsequent CRC risk due to alteration of local intestinal factors. There is intense interest in nutritional therapy of patients after diagnosis of CRC, in order to impact on recurrence and overall survival (now often termed cancer interception). In conclusion, nutritional prevention of CRC continues to hold much promise. Increased mechanistic understanding of the role of individual nutrients (linked to intestinal microbiota), as well as a precision medicine approach to CRC chemoprevention and interception based on both tumour and host factors, should enable translation of nutritional interventions into effective CRC risk reduction measures.

Historical Earthquakes and Their Socioeconomic Consequences in China: 1950⁻2017.

Understanding the spatiotemporal pattern of historical earthquake disasters and resultant socioeconomic consequences is essential for designing effective disaster risk reduction measures. Based on historical earthquake disaster records, this study compiles a Chinese earthquake disaster catalog (CH-CAT) that includes records of 722 earthquake disasters that occurred during 1950–2017 in the mainland of China. This catalog includes more complete data records than other existing global earthquake databases for China as a whole. Statistical results demonstrate that the number of earthquake disasters and the resultant direct economic losses (DELs) exhibit significant increasing trends (p < 0.01) over the studied 68-year period. Earthquake-induced deaths vary greatly between individual years and exhibit no significant trend. The Qinghai-Tibet seismic zone is the area with the highest frequency of earthquake disasters and the largest accumulated DELs, whereas the North China seismic zone is associated with the highest number of deaths. Among the 722 earthquake disasters, nearly 99.0% of deaths and 95.0% of DELs are attributable to 1.8% and 3.9% of the earthquake disasters, respectively. Approximately 54.2% of recorded earthquake disasters have earthquake magnitude (Ms) values between 5.0 and 5.9, while earthquake disasters with Ms greater than or equal to 7.0 account for 88.5% of DELs and 98.8% of deaths. On average, earthquake-induced DELs and deaths increase nonlinearly with increasing Ms per earthquake. DELs have a positive correlation with deaths and casualties on a logarithmic scale. This study further discusses that during different stages of socioeconomic development, changes in both exposure and vulnerability may be the major factors leading to change differences in earthquake-induced socioeconomic consequences. This study is a beneficial supplement to the global earthquake database and is useful for calibrating global or regional empirical loss models.

Trends of climate change indices in some Mexican cities from 1980 to 2010

Global studies focusing on climate extremes in urban areas, specifically in Mexico, have not been approached with a sufficient level of detail, despite considerably increased risks for both infrastructure and human society. Based on 14 climate indices proposed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and the application of the nonparametric Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope tests, the observed trends of climate extremes in 16 urban areas in Mexico from 1980 to 2010 were analyzed. The results show that climate conditions over most cities of Mexico are changing, as indicated by a warming trend during the study period. Significant increases were detected in the annual average maximum temperature (TMX) and the annual average minimum temperature (TMN). There is no clear trend that the warmest days (TXx) are increasing, but the annual number of warm days (TX90p) and summer days (SU) has increased, and the cold days (TX10p) have decreased. Associated with these changes are concomitant decreases in fewer coldest nights (TNn), an increase in the percentage of days with warm nights (TN90p) and tropical nights (TR), and a decrease in the number of frost days (FD). In contrast, the analysis reveals a statistically significant decrease in the mean temperature and the amount of warm days in Mexico City, which could be associated with the increasing trend of atmospheric pollution and the continuous smoke and ash emissions from the volcano Popocatepetl, which disperse incoming solar radiation and reduce radiative forcing. Climate change indices based on daily precipitation data show positive trends in many cities. In general, an increasing trend in very wet days (R95p), a number of very heavy rainfall days ≥ 25 mm (R25), and the annual total wet days (PRCP) were observed. These results highlight the vulnerability of cities confronted with both global and local climate change and the importance of promoting effective local risk reduction measures as part of urban planning for city dwellers.

Screening von Thrombozytenpräparaten auf bakterielle Kontamination ist wirksam

McDonald C et al. Bacterial screening of platelet components by National Health Service Blood and Transplant, an effective risk reduction measure. Transfusion 2017; 57: 1122 – 1131

Bacterial screening of platelet components by National Health Service Blood and Transplant, an effective risk reduction measure.

Bacterial contamination of blood components remains a major cause of sepsis in transfusion medicine. Between 2006 and 2010 in the 5years before the introduction of bacterial screening of platelet (PLT) components by National Health Service Blood and Transplant (NHSBT), seven cases of PLT component-associated transmission of bacterial infection were recorded for 10 patients, three of which were fatal. Sampling of individual PLT components was undertaken at 36 to 48 hours after donation and tested in the BacT/ALERT system with 8 mL inoculated into each of aerobic and anaerobic culture bottles. Bottles were incubated until the end of the 7-day shelf life and initial reactive bottles were examined for contamination. Bacterial screened time-expired PLTs were tested as in the screen method. From February 2011 to September 2015, a total of 1,239,029 PLT components were screened. Initial-reactive, confirmed-positive, and false-positive rates were 0.37, 0.03, and 0.19%, respectively. False-negative cultures, all with Staphylococcus aureus, occurred on four occasions; three were visually detected before transfusion and one confirmed transmission resulted in patient morbidity. The NHSBT screening protocol effectively reduced the number of clinically adverse transfusion transmissions by 90% in this reporting period, compared to a similar time period before implementation. Delayed testing of 4515 time-expired PLT units after screening revealed no positives. The implementation of bacterial screening of PLT components with the NHSBT BacT/ALERT protocol was an effective risk reduction measure and increased the safety of the blood supply.

Why do people stay in or leave Fukushima?

AbstractFrom the originally constructed survey data from 2011 Fukushima incident, this paper empirically assessed the sources of failures in disaster risk mitigation in short run. Although residential relocation from the cites at risk is one of the effective risk reduction measures, the relocation incurs mobility costs of developing social capital such as communities or searching public services such as education and medical institutions. The estimation results showed that the residents in the disaster cites of 2011 Fukushima incident can tolerate higher risks of radiation exposure when they have attachment to the original residence or higher demands for the public services, and can stay in the cites at risks consequently. Because the tolerance level can depend on the information associated with the risks, the results imply that the authorities’ providing the correct information is one of the keys for the disaster risk reduction in short run.