Effects Of Shocks Research Articles

The effect of structural oil shocks on stock returns of Indian renewable energy companies across market conditions

Purpose This study aims to evaluate the structural oil shocks effect on stock returns of Indian renewable energy companies across market conditions. Design/methodology/approach This study applies the structural vector autoregression model to estimate sources of oil shocks such as oil supply shock, aggregate demand shock and oil price-specific demand shock. In the next step, the panel quantile regression model estimates the effect of these oil shocks on stock return across market conditions. Monthly data are collected from January 2009 to December 2019. All renewable energy companies listed on the National Stock Exchange of India are considered for the analysis. Findings In the whole sample analysis, this study finds that oil shocks negatively affect stock returns in most of the market conditions except oil price-specific demand shock. In sub-groups, oil shocks driven by supply and aggregate demand also negatively affect stock return in most market conditions. This study finds the positive interaction of oil price-specific demand shock. A majority of these positive interactions happen in bearish market conditions. In the whole sample, the asymmetric effects of shocks driven from oil supply and oil price-specific demand are seen in most quantiles or market conditions. At the same time, aggregate demand shock does not affect asymmetrically. In the sub-group analysis, standalone renewable energy companies stock returns are least asymmetrically affected by these oil shocks. The asymmetries of oil supply-driven shock on stock returns of the renewable energy sub-group companies are found in most quantiles. Originality/value First, this is a company-level study of the stock returns response to the structural oil shocks in the renewable energy sector. Second, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this type of study is the first in the Indian context. Third using panel quantile regression model along with capital asset pricing model framework, the authors investigate these effects across market conditions.

Whistler‐Mode Wave Generation During Interplanetary Shock Events in the Earth's Lunar Plasma Environment

AbstractWhistler‐mode waves are commonly observed within the lunar environment, while their variations during Interplanetary (IP) shocks are not fully understood yet. In this paper, we analyze two IP shock events observed by Acceleration, Reconnection, Turbulence and Electrodynamics of the Moons Interaction with the Sun (ARTEMIS) satellites while the Moon was exposed to the solar wind. In the first event, ARTEMIS detected whistler‐mode wave intensification, accompanied by sharply increased hot electron flux and anisotropy across the shock ramp. The potential reflection or backscattering of electrons by the lunar crustal magnetic field is found to be favorable for whistler‐mode wave intensification. In the second event, a magnetic field line rotation around the shock region was observed and correlated with whistler‐mode wave intensification. The wave growth rates calculated using linear theory agree well with the observed wave spectra. Our study highlights the significance of magnetic field variations and anisotropic hot electron distributions in generating whistler‐mode waves in the lunar plasma environment following IP shock arrivals.

Global shocks and the dynamics of EU countries' specialisation

AbstractThis article empirically investigates the effects of global shocks on EU‐28 countries' patterns of specialisation by focusing on the global financial crisis of 2008. In particular, it addresses the following two research questions: Did the financial crisis change the patterns of specialisation of EU member states? Was the impact of the crisis homogenous across countries and manufacturing products? Answering these questions is important because changes in specialisation generate inequalities, given the shift of the demand from one factor to another. Using an unconditional quantile regression approach, this study demonstrates that the financial crisis had a positive effect which was larger on products in which countries were not specialised before the crisis. Some heterogeneity also emerged at both sectoral and geographical levels.

Measurement and Analysis of the Shock and Drop Levels Experienced by Small and Medium Packages in the Korean Parcel Delivery System

South Korea is one of the leading markets for the e-commerce industry. In line with the rapid growth of the e-commerce industry, the parcel delivery volume in Korea has also proliferated. Despite the developments in the Korean e-commerce and courier industries, consumers still experience a high package damage rate. In response, many packaging engineers in Korea have raised the need for new parcel shipping environment tests that reflect the Korean ground shipping environment in order to properly optimize packages. However, only limited information on the Korean parcel shipping environment is currently available. Therefore, this study focused on measuring and analyzing the shock and drop levels that parcels experience during ground shipping in Korea. Shock data were collected from a total of sixty one-way shipments for small, lightweight packages and medium, mid-weight packages. The findings revealed that the two types of boxes do not experience significantly different numbers of shock events or drop heights in the Korean parcel delivery environment. Furthermore, the number of shock events that occur in Korea is substantially less than the international testing standard and less than in previous studies conducted in both Europe and the USA. In contrast, however, the drop heights are higher than those in the international testing standard and previous studies. Shock events were found to occur most frequently on the edges and to be concentrated around the bottoms of the packages. Most shock events happen while packages are loaded and unloaded at hub terminals and sub terminals.

Symmetric and Asymmetric Association Between Foreign Direct Investments and Macroeconomic Variables: An Ardl Approach

Objectives: The main objective of the study is to investigating the dynamic relationship between FDI and different Macro Economic Variables (MEVs) using the ARDL procedure, providing a more comprehensive understanding of the association between FDI and MEVs and to evaluate their relative importance for FDI. Methods: This study utilizes annual data from 1991 to 2021 from the World Bank (2021) and the Reserve Bank of India (2021). Data on GDP, Export, Inflation and interest rate, and FDI are collected from the World Bank. Autoregressive Distributive lag Model procedure has been used for the study in order to establish relationship between Macro economic variables and FDI. Results: Our methodological approach using ARDL model and finds: (a) a positive correlation between exports and FDI, (b) a negative impact of inflation and exchange rates on FDI in the long run. Non-linear ARDL analysis reveals the asymmetric impact of inflation and interest rate on FDI, which includes the effect of positive and negative shock of interest rate and inflation on FDI. d) 1% increase in inflation reduces FDI by 0.4% and if Inflation is reduced by 1%, FDI is increased by 0.2%. At the same time, the non-linear estimation of interest rates concludes that there is an asymmetric and significant association between interest rates and FDI. e) If Interest rate has increased by 1% FDI is decreased by 0.9% and if interest rate has reduced by 1% FDI has deceased by 1.63%. f) The causality analysis reveals that exports, GDP, and exchange rates are the significant economic variables that affect FDI. Conclusion: The study's findings have practical implications for policymakers and investors looking to attract more FDI in India. The results indicate that exports play a critical role in attracting FDI and that the government should focus on improving export performance to increase FDI inflows. Additionally, the study highlights the importance of controlling inflation and exchange rates to attract more foreign investment. The finding that interest rates have an asymmetric relationship with FDI suggests that policymakers should be cautious when implementing monetary policies that may impact interest rates. Overall, the study provides valuable insights for policymakers and investors looking to attract more FDI in India and highlights the importance of considering the country's macroeconomic conditions when making investment decisions.

Modelling Inflation Dynamics and Global Oil Price Shocks in OAPEC Countries: TVP-VAR

This paper aims to examine the dynamic pass-through effect of oil price shocks on inflation in OAPEC countries using quarterly data ranging from 1990:Q1 to 2022:Q4. The incorporation of the TVP-VAR model along with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method with stochastic volatility estimation offers a robust framework for capturing the time-varying nature of the relationship. Additionally, the analysis of the Impulse Response Function provides valuable insights into the short-term and long-term dynamics following oil price shocks. The results demonstrate a significant positive pass-through effect of oil prices on inflation in the sample member states, with heterogeneous magnitude and persistence. These variations are attributed to diversity in oil dependency, exchange rate regimes, monetary policy frameworks and the degree of openness to global markets. The study suggests the need for effective inflation management strategies and appropriate policy responses to oil price fluctuations. Furthermore, policymakers may consider adjusting exchange rates, interest rates, or trade policies to manage inflationary pressures effectively.

Shocks and Stability of Risk and Time Preferences among Poor Rural Households in Ethiopia

Abstract This paper examines the effects of shocks on temporal stability of risk and time preferences of rural households within a developing country context characterized by frequent droughts, chronic food insecurity, and low levels of education. Leveraging a three-wave large and diverse household panel data that elicits preferences every two years for more than 6,500 individuals from over 5,600 sample rural households in Ethiopia, we analyze the effects of droughts (self-reported) and rainfall shortfalls on household risk and time preferences. Our findings show that households become more risk-averse and impatient after experiencing drought and rainfall shocks; the change in risk preferences is more notable among households that experience recurrent droughts and multiple covariate shocks during the same period.

High-temperature transient-induced thermomechanical damage of fiber-reinforced ceramic-matrix composites in supersonic wind tunnel

This article is based on the supersonic directly connected wind tunnel. Through a specially designed experimental chamber, combined with infrared temperature measurement, high-speed camera, etc., in-situ monitoring of composite materials under airflow at Ma 3.0 with a total temperature of 950 ∼ 1473K was carried out. The dimensional analysis method was used to propose dimensionless parameters to characterize the thermal coupling caused by high-speed airflow thermal shock. Research has shown that the thermal coupling effect of supersonic airflow causes uneven temperature inside the material, and the thermal stress caused by temperature gradient changes (including increasing and decreasing processes) is the main reason for material damage. The damage of ceramic matrix composites under thermal shock mainly manifests as a decrease in surface roughness, surface fiber fracture and a decrease in elastic modulus. In addition, the study also found that there are damage thresholds for the thermal shock effect of airflow at different total temperatures, which helps to further understand the thermomechanical damage mechanism and degradation law of composite structure under high-temperature transient conditions.

From disastrous heat waves to extreme rains: Effects of weather shocks on entrepreneurship

Using household panel data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey and satellite re-analysis temperature and rainfall data, we present the first study to examine the impact of weather shocks on entrepreneurship. We measure temperature and rainfall shocks at the postcode level, and find that an increase in weather shocks in the previous period is associated with a decline in the probability of self-employment in the next period. We find suggestive evidence that health, cognitive functioning and economic activity are mechanisms through which temperature shocks transmit to entrepreneurship. The key insight of this study is that it is less likely that those directly affected by climate events will act entrepreneurially, at least in the short run.

Altering shale permeability by cold shock

The matrix permeability of shale is on the order of nanodarcy (nD), and hydrocarbon recovery from it is economical only after hydraulic fracturing. Another fracturing technique, which is often overlooked, is cryogenic fracturing. This study determines the effects of cold shock on shale permeability by focusing on the sub-100-nm pore throats that control access to a significant fraction of the pore space in the matrix. We extracted shale samples, heated them to mimic various depths, and shocked them in liquid nitrogen. Subsequently, we measured their capillary pressures. This study presents a conceptual model to shed light on the heterogeneous deformations at a sub-100-μm scale. Also, it uses a network modeling approach to determine the permeability enhancement based on the pore-throat size distributions obtained from the capillary pressure measurements. It demonstrates that cold shock enhances permeability by 20%, significantly lower than the typical values reported in the literature where the effects of subsurface temperature have been neglected. The enhancement depends non-monotonically on the temperature difference applied. Moreover, the results indicate that there may be an optimal scenario to maximize the enhancement that can only be determined experimentally. The reason for the incapability of the purely analytical approach is also discussed.

The effect of temperature shock on enhancing sperm motility: A new insight into molecular and cellular mechanisms through current procedures

Asthenozoospermia, characterized by reduced progressive motility (below 32%), is a leading cause of male infertility. Intrauterine Insemination (IUI) serves as the first-line treatment in sperm-related processes, aiming to increase sperm motility. Although Density Gradient Centrifugation (DGC) and swim-up procedures have become primary treatment options, considered the gold standard for IUI, there is a need to optimize these methods with additional factors to enhance motility, particularly for Asthenozoospermia patients.We hypothesize that a brief cold shock, lasting approximately 15–20 min at 17 °C, followed by incubation and sperm processing, can substantially enhance motility. For the first time, the hypothesis and evaluation of post-exposure incubation following a short-term cold shock, within the temperature range of 17–20 °C, were explored and discussed.This hypothesis appears valid and holds importance for several reasons. Firstly, there is a significant relationship between cold shock and its impact on intracellular components and the molecular organization of the cell membrane. Additionally, this process regulates various physiological cellular processes, including transbilayer distribution, acrosome reaction, and sperm motility. Moreover, lowering the temperature induces a molecular flux, facilitating calcium uptake by sperm. This process significantly impacts the quantity of calcium accessible to the sperm, particularly within the flagellum. Choosing the temperature below 20 °C temperature can lead to the activation of calcium-absorbing protein channels in the shortest possible time. Furthermore, a crucial reaction in IUI is sperm capacitation, which occurs when the protein tyrosine phosphorylation pathway, a key factor, is activated. Alternatively, the cold incubation of sperm reveals an increased level of tyrosine phosphorylation and a higher percentage of induced Acrosome Reaction (AR) compared to sperm incubated at normal temperatures. Hence, when sperm is cooled, it initiates a process called tyrosine phosphorylation, ultimately leading to sperm capacitation. Besides these logical reasons, there is limited empirical and incidental support in two cases that confirmed the hypothesis well

Exploring the Nexus of Decent Work, Financial Inclusion, and Economic Growth: A Study Aligned with SDG 8

We investigate the potential influence of fair employment practices and financial inclusion on economic growth, focusing on aligning our analysis with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 8 (SDG 8). Our study encompasses various countries, including 26 low-income, 20 middle-income, and 15 high-income nations. Utilizing a dynamic fixed-effect panel data approach and employing the Generalized Method of Moments from 2010 to 2021, our findings reveal that conducive environments for decent work and enhanced access to digital financial services positively impact economic growth. This synergistic effect of SDG 8 components is particularly pronounced in high-income countries, suggesting the potential for accelerated economic growth rates. Conversely, our analysis finds no discernible impact on the economic growth of low-income countries. For middle-income countries, nuanced coefficient outcomes provide a more intricate understanding of their economic dynamics. Through extensive impulse-response analysis using a Panel Vector Autoregression model, we illustrate the distinct effects of shocks related to decent work and financial inclusion across various income categories. Our results are robust to multiple sensitivity tests, underscoring their reliability and signaling significant policy implications for acknowledging the critical role of decent work and financial inclusion in fostering economic growth.

THE EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY SHOCK: EVIDENCE FROM SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT ECONOMIES

In the paper, we explore the effects of monetary policy shock on the economic growth in systemically important countries such as the US, the Euro Area and China and their impact on Ukraine. Thus, the war in Ukraine and the rise of key policy rates by central banks to curb inflation have had a significant negative impact on economic activity. There has been both a significant decrease in trade activity and a slowdown in the services sector growth, which was the main engine of global economic growth at the beginning of 2023. Based on the vector autoregression model results, we demonstrated a slight initial decline of GDP growth with following stabilization in response to the rise of key policy rates in the US. In China, this decline is much bigger and constitutes 11% after the shock. In the Euro Area, we also observe a similar pattern as in the US with an initial decline up to 2% and a further return to equilibrium. Analyzing the results of the forecast error variance decomposition, we should note that GDP fluctuations in systemically significant economies are mainly explained by their own fluctuations. The key policy rate’s contribution ranges from 1% in the US to 11% in China. At the same time, economic growth in China is less vulnerable to inflation fluctuations, in the Eurozone we observe the most sustained one among the considered economies. In addition, the study shows that the key policy rate in the United States has a positive effect on the one in Ukraine.

Import shocks and voting behavior in Europe revisited

We provide first evidence for the long-run causal impact that Chinese imports to European regions had on voting outcomes and revisit earlier estimates of the short-run impact for a methodological reason. The fringes of the political spectrum gained ground many years after the China shock plateaued and, unlike an earlier study by Colantone and Stanig (2018b), we do not find any robust evidence for a short-run effect on far-right votes. Instead, far-left and populist parties gained in the short run. We identify persistent long-run effects of import shocks on voting. These effects are biased towards populism and, to a lesser extent, to the far-right.

The US–China trade war and corporate innovation: Evidence from China

AbstractThis study investigates the effect of the US–China trade war on corporate innovation in the context of China. We find that the first‐order effect of the trade war on corporate innovation is significantly negative. That is, Chinese firms exposed to the US–China trade war have lower numbers of patent applications and invention patent applications. Underlying mechanisms include reductions in market expansion and innovation input. Our findings are more pronounced for firms connected to the United States and those suffering financial distress and for non‐state‐owned enterprises. We further contribute to the literature by showing that firms with developed managerial ability, more confident managers, and better corporate social responsibility performance tend to increase innovation for competitiveness in response to the trade war. Finally, we explore the effect of Chinese retaliatory tariff shocks on corporate innovation and find that US tariffs and Chinese retaliatory tariffs hinder corporate innovation in China.

An AFD-based adaptive impulse response model of time series

In this paper, an adaptive impulse response model of time series is proposed based on adaptive Fourier decomposition (AFD), which characterizes the data-driven impulse response model with “energy-resolution” and is applied to the effect analysis of shocks on time series. First, according to the observed time series, the frequency points of impulse response function are estimated, and the approximate expression of impulse response function in frequency domain is given. Second, AFD is carried out on the approximate impulse response function level by level, and the poles and coefficients of basis function of each level are obtained adaptively by using the criterion of energy maximization. Third, when the goodness of fit is greater than a certain threshold, all decomposition levels are determined and the adaptive impulse response model is established. Each decomposition level depicts the energy-based resolution characteristics of the impulse response model. Based on gold price return and US dollar index return in daily frequency from 2017 to 2022, this paper carried out AFD-based effect analysis with energy-resolution year by year. Results show that the proposed AFD-based adaptive impulse response model in this paper can describe the persistence effect of shocks of gold price on the US dollar index, and further measure the plainness of linkage relationship between these two time series. Decomposing impulse response to each decomposition level reveals consistence, convergency, and sufficiency of the impulse response model. The AFD-based adaptive data-driven model provides a new way for the analysis of time series in time-frequency domain.

Impact Of Natural Disaster On Local Tax Revenue

Poverty is one of the problems that always become main concern in Indonesia, the problem of poverty is worsen when economic shocks occur, one of which caused by natural disasters, these two things adding the burden on the government, especially at the regional level both in the context of fiscal management and countermeasures. By using panel data from 34 provinces in Indonesia, this study aims to find the effect of natural disasters and poverty rate on regional tax revenues at provincial level with foreign direct investment (FDI) as a moderating variable. The results of the regression shows that natural disasters and the poverty rate have positive effects on local tax revenues, but these two variables become negatively affected when moderated by FDI so that moderation weakens the effect of the two independent variables, the FDI variable itself when tested as an independent variable has positive effects on local tax revenues. This research is expected to assist local governments in formulating fiscal policy in the event of a post-disaster economic shock and its countermeasures as well as poverty alleviation efforts when the economy is running normally.

Does crude oil price volatility respond asymmetrically to financial shocks?

Recent literature has explored the effect of monetary and financial shocks, along with oil supply and global demand shocks, in determining oil price volatility. This paper elucidates whether the change in oil price volatility in response to financial shocks differs over quantiles over the period 1993–2021. First, we disintegrate the structural innovations to oil price volatility, originating from crude oil production, global demand, oil demand, oil inventories, interest rates, and financial market volatility, using the SVAR approach during pre-crisis and post-crisis phases. Furthermore, using quantile autoregressive distributed lag models (QARDL) and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) models, we analyze the plausible asymmetric effects of these shocks. The findings indicate the significance of supply-side and global demand shocks on oil price volatility in the pre-crisis periods, followed by the increase in the explanatory power of financial shocks on oil price volatility after the crisis. It also suggests that oil price volatility responds asymmetrically to oil supply, inventories, and financial shocks.

A novel dynamic grey multivariate prediction model for multiple cumulative time-delay shock effects and its application in energy emission forecasting

Energy emission systems are often influenced by external information and policy shock. However, conventional grey models ignore the existence of the impact of multiple shock events and cumulative time-delay effects, which are crucial for achieving accurate forecasts. From a dynamic perspective, we aim to establish a multivariable grey prediction model considering the impact of multiple shock events, namely MSGTDM(1,N) model. Specifically, to accurately describe the impact of different types of external shocks on the system, three kinds of nonlinear dynamic shock functions are designed, including growth dynamic shock function, decline dynamic shock function, and slope dynamic shock function. Based on this, multi-dimensional instantaneous shock utility terms and cumulative time-delay utility terms are constructed to accurately measure shock effects. And Whale Optimization Algorithm is employed to determine the optimal parameters of the shock functions through comprehensive comparative analysis. The findings affirm the MSGTDM(1,N) model's higher predictive accuracy and validity. Consequently, the forecast results of China's carbon emissions from coal and natural gas consumption in 2022–2025 provide a reliable basis for adjusting the energy structure and implementing the “dual-carbon” policy effectively.

Made in Europe: Monetary–Fiscal policy mix with financial frictions

We study the role of fiscal and monetary policies in a financially constrained economy. An active monetary–passive fiscal regime amplifies technology shocks, mitigates preference shocks, and neutralizes the expansionary effects of fiscal shocks through “debt deflation” and “real interest rate” channels, compared to an active fiscal–passive monetary policy regime. Several features of the data suggest that in the aftermath of the 2007 Financial crisis, the monetary policy in the United States was more dovish than in the Euro Area while fiscal policy seemed less concerned about the dynamics of sovereign debt, implying that the distinct post-crisis dynamics of the United States and the Euro area can be rationalized through different fiscal and monetary policy mixes.