Effect Of Seat Belt Legislation Research Articles

Forecasting, structural time series models and the kalman filter

In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

The effectiveness of seat belt legislation in reducing driver-involved injury rates in Maryland

Abstract This study makes use of econometric models to evaluate the effect of the Maryland seat belt law (SBL) on various driver-involved injury rates. Models are developed for various types of injuries using a large data set from the US Department of Transportation's State Traffic Accident Files. Models are normalized for vehicle damage levels and account for the general impact of the SBL in Maryland as well as its dynamic effects. The models also account for seasonal factors, unemployment rates, companion effects and other relevant factors. The analysis is conducted for single vehicle accidents, multiple vehicle accidents, as well as their combination. The results indicate that the effectiveness of Maryland's SBL vary depending on the type of injury rates examined.

An evaluation of the effect of seat belt legislation in Kuwait City on the incidence of maxillofacial fractures in children

An evaluation of the effect of seat belt legislation in Kuwait City on the incidence of maxillofacial fractures in children

The effectiveness of seat belt legislation in reducing various driver-involved injury rates in California∗

This study makes use of econometric models to examine the impact of seat belt laws on various driver-involved injury rates in California in both single- and multiple-vehicle accidents. The study makes use of a large data set from the U.S. D.O.T. State Traffic Accident Files and accounts for the general impact of seat belt laws as well as their dynamic effects on injury rates. The models adjust for a wide range of additional contributing factors to injury rates, including the influence of unemployment rates, speed limits, companion effects, and others. Robust results are obtained for the efficacy of seat belt legislation on reducing (moderate to fatal) injury rates in California.

The effects of mandatory seat belt legislation on self-reported seat belt use among male and female college students

The effect of seat belt legislation on self-reported seat belt use among male and female college students was investigated. Questionnaires inquiring about seat belt use were administered to college students on three separate occasions: (i) two months prior to the time a mandatory seat belt law went into effect, (ii) two months after the law went into effect, and (iii) 16 months after the law went into effect. Reported seat belt use increased significantly for male and female college students two months after the law took effect. At 16 months postlaw, reported seat belt use remained high for female students but declined almost to the prelaw level for males. Possible reasons offered for these findings are that male college students may be more resistant to having their behavior regulated and, therefore, less likely to internalize changes forced on them, and college-age males may be more inclined to engage in risk-taking behavior than college-age females. The importance of considering males and females separately with respect to seat belt use and interventions designed to increase seat belt use is discussed.

Discussion of the Paper by Bruce and Martin

Discussion of the Paper by Bruce and Martin

California mandatory seat belt law: The effect of recent legislation on motor vehicle accident related maxillofacial injuries

This study evaluated the effects of the California mandatory seat belt law on prevention of motor vehicle accident (MVA)-related maxillofacial injuries. The records of 950 MVA-related injury victims treated at San Francisco General Hospital during comparable 3-month periods in 1985 (451) and 1986 (499) were reviewed to assess the effect of seat belt legislation on reduction of maxillofacial trauma. No significant difference was found in the injury severity scores between the two study periods. In addition, this study did not confirm the reported beneficial effect of seat belt legislation on reduction of MVA-related facial injuries in California. This finding was attributed to poor compliance with the law (50.3% compliance rate).

The seat belt law and after.

We report a retrospective study of 378 perforating eye injuries presenting between August 1981 and July 1984 to four major teaching hospitals. The aetiological groups have been analysed together and by region, and preventive measures for some groups are discussed. We have confirmed the effectiveness of seat belt legislation in reducing serious eye injury.

Seat belts and sternal fractures : Dudd J. S. (1985) The effect of seat belt legislation on the incidence of sternal fractures seen in the accident department. Br. Med. J.291, 785

Seat belts and sternal fractures : Dudd J. S. (1985) The effect of seat belt legislation on the incidence of sternal fractures seen in the accident department. Br. Med. J.291, 785

The effect of seat belt legislation on injuries sustained by car occupants : R. Barnes, and G.G. Bodiwala, Injury, July 1985, 16(7), 471–476

Previous research has indicated that unbelted drivers are at higher risk of involvement in fatal crashes than belted drivers, suggesting selective recruitment that high-risk drivers are unlikely to become belt users. However, how the risk of involvement in fatal crashes among unbelted drivers varies according to the level of seat belt use among general drivers has yet to be clearly quantified. We, therefore, developed mathematical models describing the risk of fatal crashes in relation to seat belt use among the general public, and explored how these models fitted to changes in driver mortality and changes in observed seat belt use using Japanese data. Mortality data between 1979 and 1994 were obtained from vital statistics, and mortality data in the daytime and nighttime between 1980 and 2001 and belt use data between 1979 and 2001 were obtained from the National Police Agency. Regardless of the data set analyzed, exponential models, assuming that high-risk drivers would gradually become belt users in order of increasing risk as seat belt use among general motorists reached high levels, showed the best fit. Our models provide an insight into behavioral changes among high-risk drivers and support the selective recruitment hypothesis.

The Effects of Seat Belt Legislation on British Road Casualties: A Case Study in Structural Time Series Modelling

Monthly data on road casualties in Great Britain are analyzed in order to assess the effect on casualty rates of the seat belt law introduced on January 31, 1983. Such analysis is known technically as intervention analysis. The form of intervention analysis that is used in this paper is based upon structural time series modelling and differs in significant respects from standard intervention analysis based upon ARIMA modelling. The relative merits of the two approaches are compared. Structural modelling intervention techniques are used to estimate the changes in casualty rates for various categories of road users following the introduction of the seat belt law. We first note the high rate of compliance with the seat belt law. By February 1983, the wearing rate had jumped to 90 percent and the rate has remained at approximately 95 percent from March 1983 onwards. There can be no doubt of the success of the law as regards to compliance. In considering the casualty figures we distinguish between those directly affected by the law, namely car drivers and front seat passengers, and those not directly affected by the law, that is car rear seat passengers, pedestrians and cyclists. Taking first numbers killed and seriously injured (KSI), we found a reduction of 23 percent for car drivers and 30 percent for front seat passengers. Thus, for those directly affected by the law, there have been substantial reductions. For rear seat passengers KSI we found a rise of 3 percent, for pedestrians a fall of one-half percent, and for cyclists an increase of 5 percent -- all three of these of these values being statistically insignificant. We conclude that there is no significant evidence of a change in numbers of KSI of those not directly affected. For numbers killed, we found for those directly affected a reduction of 18 percent for car drivers and 25 percent for front seat passengers. However, for those indirectly affected by the law, our model gave an increase of 27 percent for rear seat passengers, 8 percent for pedestrians, and 13 percent for cyclists. The value for rear seat passengers is highly significant and the other two values are on the borderline of significance. We conclude that there was an increase in fatalities of those not directly affected. We are unable to provide a completely satisfactory explanation of the difference between the figures for KSI and killed for rear seat passengers, pedestrians and cyclists. The article contains 13 pages of comments by discussants and 3 pages of authors' response. Language: en

The effects of seat belt legislation on British road casualities: A case study in structural modelling: A.C. Harvey and J. Durbing, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 149 (1986) (in press)

The effects of seat belt legislation on British road casualities: A case study in structural modelling: A.C. Harvey and J. Durbing, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 149 (1986) (in press)

The effect of seat belt legislation on injuries sustained by car occupants: Allen MJ, Barnes MR, Bodiwala GG Injury 16:471–476 Jul 1985

The effect of seat belt legislation on injuries sustained by car occupants: Allen MJ, Barnes MR, Bodiwala GG Injury 16:471–476 Jul 1985

Effect of seat belt legislation on the incidence of sternal fractures seen in the accident department.

Seat belts may be associated with certain injuries--for example, fractured sternums--and since legislation introduced on 1 February 1983, an increased incidence of these might be expected. At Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, it was noticed that a comparatively large proportion of front seat car occupants hurt in automobile accidents were presenting with anterior chest pain and were found to have sternal fractures. The aim of this study was therefore to determine whether the incidence of patients presenting to the Casualty Department with a sternal fracture had increased as a result of seat belt legislation. Details are given of the method used and of the results obtained: a threefold increase in the incidence of sternal fractures since legislation, coupled with an increase in the number of people surviving high speed automobile accidents and also a pronounced increase in the number of people wearing seat belts. (TRRL)

The effect of seat belt legislation on injuries sustained by car occupants

Details are given of the injuries sustained by 402 car drivers, 209 front seat passengers and 147 back seat passengers involved in road accidents during the two 4-month periods before and after the introduction of the compulsory wearing of seat belts on 1 February 1983. Comparisons are made between the injury patterns in those wearing and not wearing seat belts and in back seat passengers.

The effect of seat belt legislation on a district general hospital

The introduction of legislation making the use of seat belts compulsory was associated with a marked reduction in the number of patients coming to the Accident and Emergency Department of a district general hospital as a result of road traffic accidents. Those patients who were not wearing seat belts required hospital admission twice as often as restrained car occupants. The only deaths occurring during the period of study occurred in those not using seat belts. Rear seat passengers were found to suffer from more severe and more numerous injuries than restrained car occupants. Injuries caused by seat belts were seen, usually causing bruising of the chest wall or minor fractures, and, excluding the chest, those wearing seat belts were less likely to suffer an injury to any part of the body than those not protected by a belt.

Effect of seat belt legislation on injuries in road traffic accidents in Nottingham.

Details are given of a survey undertaken to assess the impact of the legislation introduced in the United Kingdom on 1st February 1983, on the number and severity of injuries seen in the accident and emergency department of a large teaching hospital. The casualty records of 437 patients for the three months immediately before and after 1st February 1983 were studied. Compliance with seat belt legislation was good: seat belt use rose from 20 to 40% before legislation to 90% after introduction of the latter. Study results showed a significant and pronounced reduction in the number of deaths and in the number and severity of injuries (particularly to the head and face) sustained by the occupants of cars involved in road traffic accidents. (TRRL)

Effectiveness of Seat Belt Legislation on the Queensland Road Toll—An Australian Case Study in Intervention Analysis

Abstract The effect of seat belt legislation introduced in the state of Queensland was examined by using two approaches. The first approach consisted of modeling time series of road deaths before intervention (the legislation) as a Box-Jenkins univariate time series model. As we expected, this model proved to be inadequate in explaining the postintervention period, and the model was modified to incorporate the expected form of the intervention effects. Results showed that the legislation produced significant reduction in the road toll, but this analytical approach was limited in describing long-run effects. The second approach, involving causal model and incorporating a proxy explanatory variable and autoregressive-moving average error, was fruitful in overcoming the limitation of the previous approach. The long-run legislative effect was quantified, at a specific level of the explanatory variable, to be a 46 percent reduction in deaths.

Effectiveness of Seat Belt Legislation on the Queensland Road Toll--An Australian Case Study in Intervention Analysis

Effectiveness of Seat Belt Legislation on the Queensland Road Toll--An Australian Case Study in Intervention Analysis