Effects Of Recent Climate Change Research Articles

Increasing body condition of autumn migrating Eurasian blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla over four decades

The effects of recent climate change on the phenology of avian breeding and migration, geographical range shifts, and decreasing migration distances are well documented. Only a few studies have focused on the long-term influence of these changes on the body condition of migrants, which is important as it is likely to affect the fitness of the whole population. Eurasian blackcaps have adapted their migratory behaviour to changing ecological factors. These changes seem to favour the species and its migratory populations have increased over the last decades in Europe. In the present study, we analysed the body condition index of juvenile blackcaps at their stop-over site in the southern Baltic region during autumn migration from 1967 to 2006. This index was distinctly higher since the 1990s than in the middle of the 1960s, when the number of migrating blackcaps was at least twofold lower. Moreover, there was a reduction in recapture rates of blackcaps from 14% to 6% during these periods which may imply that warblers were staying for a shorter time at the stop-over site as their body condition was higher. We hypothesized that higher berry crop availability resulted in the higher condition of migrating blackcaps. Body condition index also reflecting fuel load in migrants was higher in long-distance blackcaps compared to the short-distance ones. As the former are time-minimizing migrants, their higher body condition/fuel load may allow them to migrate faster to wintering grounds in sub-Saharan Africa.

The Impact of Recent Climate Change on Plants

Climatic conditions play a key role in the basic plants processes (photosynthesis, respiration, growth and development), their seasonal cycle, and in determining the limits of their distribution. Climate has a great impact on plant individuals, populations and species, as well as on their communities, ecosystems and biomes. As a result, concerns have grown in recent decades about the possible effects of global climate change on flora. The paper gives an overview of the observed climate change, primarily changes in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, air temperature (global warming), precipitation regime and extreme weather and climate events. Then, the observed effects of recent climate change on the plants are analyzed, primarily the effects on the physiology, phenology and distribution of plant species, as well as the effects on plant communities and ecosystems. The results of numerous studies in the world proved that recent climate change has led to significant changes in the plants distribution ‒ range (shifts to higher latitudes and higher altitudes), physiology (improving the rate of photosynthesis and water use efficiency, decreasing stomatal conductivity and increasing net primary production) and the seasonal cycle ‒ phenology (earlier onset of growing season and earlier occurrence of phenophases in spring and summer and delay of autumn phenophases ending the growing season, and as a consequence of these changes prolongation of growing season in many regions) as well as that changed climatic conditions have already led to changes in plant communities (through changes in composition and altered interactions between species such as pollination, competition, predation, parasitism, mutualism, disease transmission, food chains, etc.) and local extinction of certain plant species.

Climate change alone cannot explain boreal caribou range recession in Quebec since 1850.

The contraction of species range is one of the most significant symptoms of biodiversity loss worldwide. While anthropogenic activities and habitat alteration are major threats for several species, climate change should also be considered. For species at risk, differentiating the effects of human disturbances and climate change on past and current range transformations is an important step towards improved conservation strategies. We paired historical range maps with global atmospheric reanalyses from different sources to assess the potential effects of recent climate change on the observed northward contraction of the range of boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Quebec (Canada) since 1850. We quantified these effects by highlighting the discrepancies between different southern limits of the caribou's range (used as references) observed in the past and reconstitutions obtained through the hindcasting of the climate conditions within which caribou are currently found. Hindcasted southern limits moved ~105 km north over time under all reanalysis datasets, a trend drastically different from the ~620 km reported for observed southern limits since 1850. The differences in latitudinal shift through time between the observed and hindcasted southern limits of distribution suggest that caribou range recession should have been only 17% of what has been observed since 1850 if recent climate change had been the only disturbance driver. This relatively limited impact of climate reinforces the scientific consensus stating that caribou range recession in Quebec is mainly caused by anthropogenic drivers (i.e. logging, development of the road network, agriculture, urbanization) that have modified the structure and composition of the forest over the past 160 years, paving the way for habitat-mediated apparent competition and overharvesting. Our results also call for a reconsideration of past ranges in models aiming at projecting future distributions, especially for endangered species.

The Role of Recent Climate Change in Explaining the Statistical Yield Increase of Maize in Northern Bavaria—A Model Study

Maize yields in many regions of the world have increased significantly since the 1960s. The increase is mainly attributed to technological improvements and climate change. On a regional scale and in recent decades, climate change has altered growth conditions of maize and this, in turn, has influenced changes in yield. In order to analyze the contribution of different factors to yield changes, and to obtain a model setup that could be used for further analyses of yield development, this study systematically investigated the effects of recent climate change, irrigation, cultivar selection and nutrient availability on historical yields in Northern Bavaria. Four sets of simulations were conducted with the mechanistic plant growth model PROMET, during the time period between 1997 and 2020, and the resulting yields were compared to county statistics. In addition, three scenarios were simulated in order to determine yield increase potentials for the highly mechanized agricultural region of Northern Bavaria. The results showed a good agreement with the observed yields (R2 = 0.76), when considering altered nutrient availability, suggesting that an increase in nutrient uptake by plants plays a key role in reproducing yield statistics and has a main contribution to the observed increasing yield trends. Moreover, other factors considered individually, such as recent climate change, irrigation and cultivar selection, could not explain the yield levels and trends shown by the statistics. The scenario simulations demonstrated potential increases in yield due to irrigation and cultivar adaptation. The yield response to irrigation shows a trend, with recent climate change progressing, of 0–25% when irrigating currently grown cultivars and 10–50% when irrigating an adapted cultivar; rainfed cultivar adaptation consistently increased the level of yields by approximately 10%. This study highlights the importance of a dynamic consideration of growth conditions in the course of climate change, rather than static assumptions of model parameters, and emphasizes the importance of the second-order effects of climate change.

English

Abstract An intensive, long-term study of the life history of O. rusticus was conducted in Fleetwood Creek, a small stream in Southern Ontario, Canada. The reproductive biology as well as molting cycle were investigated and the larval development and morphology was documented in detail for the first time in this important invasive species. Despite recent climate change effects, such as higher maximum temperatures as well as significant short term temperature fluctuations, the overall life cycle does not appear significantly different from previous studies conducted in the 1980s and 1990s but the crayfish activity appeared to be affected by temperature fluctuations associated with climate change. Mating and spawning occurred in the first week of April. The onset of mating and spawning occurred at temperatures of 9-10°C which was somewhat higher than previously reported for this species in this region of Ontario. Abdominal eggs were carried for approximately 7-weeks and larval stages remain attached to their mothers between 12 and 15 days. Free-living young were first observed in early June. Maturity is attained within the first summer, at 19-20 mm carapace length, in at least 30% of the young-of-the-year and most individuals of both sexes are mature at 25 mm carapace length. Monitoring was conducted weekly and daily during molting and spawning periods in spring 2021 and 2022, which makes this study unique with respect to most other life history field studies.

Recent Intensification (2004–2020) of Permafrost Mass‐Wasting in the Central Mackenzie Valley Foothills Is a Legacy of Past Forest Fire Disturbances

AbstractThe effects of recent climate change are accelerating permafrost thaw, including ice‐rich landscapes of the western Canadian Arctic. However, regional drivers of permafrost slope failure in hillslopes with warm, thin permafrost remain poorly understood. Repeat satellite imagery (1984–2020) indicates rapid increases in retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) and deep‐seated permafrost landslides (DSPLs) since 2004, indicating a change in slope stability thresholds in an area that otherwise appeared thaw stable. The widespread occurrence of DSPL represents a contrasting geomorphic response to the RTS‐dominated ice‐rich permafrost landscapes. In this study area, RTS and DSPL occur predominantly in areas that were burned by forest fires in the 1990s, indicating a legacy thermal disturbance that preconditioned permafrost hillslopes for failure. The relations between historic fires and the later development of widespread permafrost slope failures represent an outstanding example of the complex interactions between inherited landscape sensitivity in ice‐rich terrain and ongoing climate change.

Impact of Climate Change on Aquatic Plants Found in Major Lentic Water Bodies Located at Eastern Rajasthan

Climate change is one of the major challenges of the environment which is caused by the burning of fossilfuel, deforestation, increasing anthropogenic activities, release of greenhouse gases and global warming.The biggest factor of concern is increase in greenhouse gases mainly CO2 level which change the climateand weather pattern. In Rajasthan situation is as critical as continuous rain failure create the conditions ofdraught in Rajasthan. Some of the immediate effects of recent climate change are becoming apparent througheffects on aquatic flora. Vicissitudes of climate have a considerable impact on aquatic flora. The wetlandecosystems, which are most productive but most fragile, are great threat of extinction today, partly onaccount of their use for human activities and partly due to natural threats; such as frequent droughts,scantly rainfall, erosion and biotic effects caused by biotic intervention in maintaining them. The currentreview mainly focuses on how flora of eastern Rajasthan are likely responding to direct and indirect effectsof anthropogenic climate change. We aim to awareness rather than to be comprehensive. Rajasthan is thelargest state of India area-wise constituting 10.4% of country’s geographical area. East Rajasthan got one ofthe two Ramsar sites of Rajasthan, two national parks, and 7 wildlife sanctuaries and comprises about 9%geographical area of the state. Most of the lakes in east Rajasthan get fully dried up at least once in four tofive years. All aquatic ecosystems of this region suffer from periodic desiccation. We include extinction inaquatic plants, endangered species, and invasive species. However, all are important in providing insightsinto future state of aquatic ecosystems. We also highlight some of the management issues relevant toconserving aquatic communities and ecosystem in the face of anthropogenic climate change.

Subalpine forest water use behaviour and evapotranspiration during two hydrologically contrasting growing seasons in the Canadian Rockies

AbstractHydrological processes in mountain headwater basins are changing as climate and vegetation change. Interactions between hydrological processes and subalpine forest ecological function are important to mountain water supplies due to their control on evapotranspiration (ET). Improved understanding of the sensitivity of these interactions to seasonal and interannual changes in snowmelt and summer rainfall is needed as these interactions can impact forest growth, succession, health, and susceptibility to wildfire. To better understand this sensitivity, this research examined ET for a sub‐alpine forest in the Canadian Rockies over two contrasting growing seasons and quantified the contribution of transpiration (T) from the younger tree population to overall stand ET. The younger population was focused on to permit examination of trees that have grown under the effect of recent climate change and will contribute to treeline migration, and subalpine forest densification and succession. Research sites were located at Fortress Mountain Research Basin, Kananaskis, Alberta, where the subalpine forest examined is composed of Abies lasiocarpa (Subalpine fir) and Picea engelmannii (Engelmann spruce). Seasonal changes in water availability from snowmelt, precipitation, soil moisture reserves yielded stark differences in T and ET between 2016 and 2017. ET was higher in the drier year (2017), which had late snowmelt and lower summer rainfall than in the wetter year (2016) that had lower snowmelt and a rainy summer, highlighting the importance of spring snowmelt recharge of soil moisture. However, stand T of the younger trees (73% of forest population) was greater (64 mm) in 2016 (275 mm summer rainfall) than 2017 (39 mm T, 147 mm summer rainfall), and appears to be sensitive to soil moisture decreases in fall, which are largely a function of summer period rainfall. Relationships between subalpine forest water use and different growing season and antecedent (snowmelt period) hydrological conditions clarify the interactions between forest water use and alpine hydrology, which can lead to better anticipation of the hydrological response of subalpine forest‐dominated basins to climate variability and change.

Effects of Recent Climate Change on Maize Yield in Southwest Ecuador

In recent years, evidence of recent climate change has been identified in South America, affecting agricultural production negatively. In response to this, our study employs a crop modelling approach to estimate the effects of recent climate change on maize yield in four provinces of Ecuador. One of them belongs to a semi-arid area. The trend analysis of maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and solar radiation was done for 36 years (from 1984 to 2019) using the Mann–Kendall test. Furthermore, we simulated (using the LINTUL5 model) the counterfactual maize yield under current crop management in the same time-span. During the crop growing period, results show an increasing trend in the temperature in all the four studied provinces. Los Rios and Manabi showed a decreasing trend in radiation, whereas the semi-arid Loja depicted a decreasing precipitation trend. Regarding the effects of climate change on maize yield, the semi-arid province Loja showed a more significant negative impact, followed by Manabi. The yield losses were roughly 40 kg ha−1 and 10 kg ha−1 per year, respectively, when 250 kg N ha−1 is applied. The simulation results showed no effect in Guayas and Los Rios. The length of the crop growing period was significantly different in the period before and after 2002 in all provinces. In conclusion, the recent climate change impact on maize yield differs spatially and is more significant in the semi-arid regions.

Attribution Analysis of Long-Term Trends of Aridity Index in the Huai River Basin, Eastern China

This paper aims to combinedly investigate the spatiotemporal trends of precipitation (Pre), reference evapotranspiration (ET0), and aridity index (AI) by employing nonparametric methods based on daily datasets from 137 meteorological stations during 1961–2014 in the Huai River Basin (HRB). The dominant factors influencing ET0 and AI trends were also explored using the detrended and differential equation methods. Results show that (1) Pre, ET0, and AI were much larger in summer than in other seasons, and AI had a nonsignificant increasing trend in annual time scale, while Pre and ET0 exhibited decreasing trends, but AI showed a downward trend in spring and autumn (becoming drier) and an upward trend during summer and winter due to increased Pre (becoming wetter); (2) lower AI values were identified in north and higher in south, and lower ET0 was identified in south and higher in north in annual time scale, growing season and spring, while ET0 decreased from west to east in summer and winter, the spatial distribution of Pre was similar to that of AI; (3) for ET0 trends, in general, wind speed at two-meter height (u2) was the dominant factor in spring, autumn, winter, and annual time scale, while in other seasons, solar radiation (Rs) played a dominant role; (4) for AI trends, AI was mostly contributed by Pre in spring, autumn, and winter, the Rs contributed the most to AI trend in growing season and summer, then in annual time scale, u2 was the dominant factor; (5) overall, the contribution of Pre to AI trends was much larger than that of ET0 in spring, autumn, and winter, while AI was mostly contributed by ET0 in annual time scale, growing season and summer. The outcomes of the study may improve our scientific understanding of recent climate change effects on dry–wet variations in the HRB; moreover, this information may be utilized in other climatic regions for comparison analyses.

Wastewater reuse in agriculture sector: resources management and adaptation in the context of climate change: case study of the Beni Mellal-Khenifra region, Morocco

Recent climate change effects worsened water scarcity in Morocco and forced the country to seek alternative water resources such as domestic and industrial wastewater. In this context, we assessed the treatment efficiency of wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) of the BeniMellal-Khenifra region based on physicochemical and biological parameters. Vegetation cover evolution near WWTPs was also analysed using satellite images (Landsat TM and OLI). Six WWTP were evaluated based on treated water quality and a survey of nearby farmers and residents. Results showed treated wastewater is in line with Moroccan standards, and can be reused for irrigation and aquaculture without harmful effects. The survey pointed to the Boujaad WWTP as a model in the region. The vegetation cover evolution before and after WWTP existence showed an important improvement of cultivated lands. As a conclusion, wastewater reuse will allow the BeniMellal-Khenifra region to secure agricultural irrigation to safeguard freshwater quantities and quality despite climate change.

An Assessment of Drought in Mannar District, Sri Lanka

Due to recent climate changes and variability the frequency of occurrence and intensity of extreme climatic events such as flood, drought, etc. are increasing significantly in Sri Lanka. The main objectives of the study are to analyze the annual and seasonal rainfall variability in the last 147years from 1871-2018 with particular reference to drought and to assess the occurrence of droughts and its intensity and the impacts of drought on agriculture. For this secondary and primary data have been used. The long-term average annual rainfall of Mannar show the decreasing trend (r2= 0.0158), particularly in recent epochs higher negative anomalies of rainfall were found, as a results frequent occurrence of droughts or dry spells have been occurred. The rainfall anomaly results reveal that, out of 147years of the data period about 47years were experienced as drought and its probability is P=0.320. Accordingly, once in four to five years a drought could be possible. However, in the recent epoch of 1991-2018, higher number of droughts occurred than the any other epochs and its epochal probability is higher (P=0.40) than the normal, which indicate the effect of recent climate change.

Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

Abstract. Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity – rather unexpectedly – have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

Effects of Recent Climate Change on Hourly Weather Data for HVAC Design: A Case Study of Osaka

The current design weather data used for heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) design in Japan was created using an old data period. New design weather data should be created to reflect recent local climate change. Based on our previous proposal of creating design weather data with two weather indices (dry-bulb temperature and enthalpy) for HVAC design, design weather data for Osaka was created using more recently-measured weather data (period: 2001~2015) from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) in this study. The effect of recent climate change on the design weather data created with eight proposed methods was found. It showed the change in weather elements for cooling design clearly trends to warmer and drier weather, with more solar radiation and lower enthalpy, while the trends in heating design are less clear, mainly showing higher enthalpy. Furthermore, the difference in the peak load for the heating and cooling designs using the new and old design weather data was compared. The comparison showed that the minimum difference in peak load for the heating design was found using the mean daily dry-bulb temperature as the first and second indices; for the cooling design, the minimum difference in peak load was found using mean daily enthalpy as both the first and second indices.

Sea level rise sedimentary record and organic carbon fluxes in a low-lying tropical coastal ecosystem

Sea level rise, one of the most evident effects of recent climate change, is already impacting coastal ecosystems. Because of its low relief, population increase and economic development during the last century, the Celestun lagoon is highly vulnerable to global change, including sea level rise. Here, we study a sediment core from a tropical saltmarsh to evaluate the impact of sea level rise on sediment accretion and carbon fluxes. Some geochemical indicators in a 210Pb dated sediment core showed clear signals of marine influence. This was reflected on increased accretion rates, from 0.3±0.1mmyr−1 in ≈1941 to 2.9±1.2mmyr−1 in 2012. These accretion rates were similar to eustatic sea level rise, and mean acceleration ranged from 0.037–0.22mmyr−2, implying a SLR by 2100 ranging from 14 to 86cm. The one-century (1917–2013) organic carbon stock in sediments was calculated to be 10.1±0.2MgCha−1. During the same period, the organic carbon flux, corrected for organic carbon degradation, increased from 7±3gCm−2yr−1 to 73±26gCm−2yr−1, attributed to the impact of sea level rise in this ecosystem. This work shows that tropical saltmarshes may provide useful information on sea level rise, and the presented methodology may be used where instrumental records do not exist or they are too short.

Historical evolution of slope instability in the Calore River Basin, Southern Italy

There is interest in knowing historical spatio-temporal patterns of landslide activity. However, this is challenging to reconstruct because it is difficult to obtain detailed records for past landslide activity. Here, we deal with hydro-geomorphological signatures, such as storms, downpours, floods, snowmelt and mass movement, to detect annual slope instability events (ASIEs) over historical times. In order to obtain ASIEs for each year, a monthly Instability Density Index (IDI) was used and then monthly values were summed up to obtain a yearly value. Classes of monthly IDI varying between 0 (no instability) and 4 (highest instability) were determined from historical documents. We present an application for the Calore River Basin, Southern Italy, using data from a 313-year long series (1701–2013 CE). After 1880 CE the information becomes more valuable with directly observed landslide frequency. By this cataloguing, 129 ASIEs were obtained. Their evolution shows slight instability during the 18th century. Uneven and greater slope instability occurred instead across the 19th century, when an important phase of deforestation coincided with intensification of agricultural activities. Slope instability events continued during the 20th century but their causes are mainly related to anthropisation and the effects of recent climate change. It was determined that stormy autumns until the 19th century and successive winter-times with enhanced snowmelt, may have driven the reactivation of widespread instability events. We also found that mountainous and hilly terrains have an acute sensitivity to climate change.

Sedimentary carbon forms in relation to climate and phytoplankton biomass in a large, shallow, hard-water boreal lake

Carbon storage in lakes can have huge implications for the global carbon cycle, as lakes annually accumulate up to one half the amount of organic carbon buried in marine sediments. Yet little is known of the effect of recent climate change on carbon storage in lakes. We analyzed century-scale time series of climate variables (precipitation, temperature, NAO winter index) and profiles of sediment characteristics in a dated sediment core from shallow, eutrophic Lake Vortsjarv, south Estonia. We used path analysis to evaluate the effect of climate conditions on phytoplankton biomass in the lake and accumulation of organic and inorganic carbon in the sediment. Changes in winter and spring climate influenced the lake’s phytoplankton growth significantly. Carbon pathways in hard-water Lake Vortsjarv were influenced by both hydrological (most significant in colder periods) and biogeochemical processes. Increased nutrient and water input to Lake Vortsjarv, anticipated with projected climate warming, favours greater in-lake productivity, larger accumulation of inorganic carbon in sediments, and an increase in organic carbon mineralisation, which fuels atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions from the lake.

Population performance of Moringa peregrina (Forssk.) Fiori (Moringaceae) at Sinai Peninsula, Egypt in the last decades: Consequences for its conservation

We investigated effects of recent climate change and human impacts on the threat situation of Moringa peregrina, a drought-adapted tree distributed at Sinai, Arabian Peninsula, and Horn of Africa. Four populations were surveyed at Sinai and evaluated for its performance and fitness parameters (2006–2015). Total populations size declined from 448 (initial census 2000) to 423 (2006), then 390 trees (2015). Recruitment was naturally very sporadic, as indicated by size and age structures of the populations. Except for 12 saplings established after strong rainfalls in 2010 and already dead in 2015, no trees below 5cm diameter at breast height were recorded, which points to the lacking of recruitment, at least during the last three decades. Multivariate statistics in response to nine environmental variables (elevation, inclination, exposition, landform, annual precipitation, temperature, browsing, cutting, and GPS coordinates) indicated that once established, Moringa trees are relatively resistant to environmental threats. However, tree performance was significantly better in wadis receiving higher rainfalls. Growth sites where the trees showed the highest performance (wadi beds) are also those most threatened by flash floods and suffering from the highest grazing intensity. Seed production occurs only sporadically, ca. 29% of all trees did not produce seeds in both survey years. Seed set was better on south-facing slopes, where trees are much more susceptible to drought. Considering the trend towards a drier and hotter climate at Sinai, we recommend to include the species on the IUCN Red List, provide an updated threat assessment and recommend actions and suitable locations for facilitated recruitment.

Attribute Analysis of Aridity Variability in North Xinjiang, China

Identifying the dominant meteorological factors affecting aridity variability can improve our understanding of climate change and its future trend in arid and semiarid regions. This study investigated the spatiotemporal aridity variability in North Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2013, based on the UNESCO aridity index (precipitation/potential evapotranspiration), and analyzed its association with meteorological factors. The results suggest that North Xinjiang is becoming more humid with an increasing trend in aridity index. Precipitation, temperature, and relative humidity have positive correlation with aridity, and evapotranspiration, sunshine hours, and wind speed have negative correlation with aridity. Wind speed and sunshine hours have a higher sensitivity and more contribution to aridity. This study provides an understanding of the effect of recent climate change on drought in northwest China.

Hypothesizing if responses to climate change affect herbicide exposure risk for amphibians

Abstract Pesticide use is well known to be detrimental for maintaining biodiversity in the agricultural landscape. Amphibians are especially affected by these agrochemicals. In particular, these animals’ high sensitivity was demonstrated for glyphosate-based herbicides which are dominating the world market today. Pesticide impacts are influenced by several co-stressors, and we for the first time link the exposure risk of amphibians to these commonly used pesticides to observed recent effects from ongoing climate change. In a simple verbal model, based on present-day data from Germany, we show that amphibian populations which have undergone phenological shift towards earlier reproduction potentially suffer less from applications of glyphosate-based herbicides compared to those which (yet) show no such reproductive shift. Although, apparently observed recent climate change effects lower the exposure risk, we advocate that amphibians are not necessarily safer now, mainly because farmers most likely will adapt their cultivation practices in the future if climate change becomes more obvious. Rather, we conclude that combining pesticide applications, climate change and phenological responses need an increased consideration in amphibian conservation. The results from our verbal model should be seen as a hypothesis that needs to be tested with specific field studies and (based on these data which are widely lacking today) more complex modelling of future exposure risk of pesticides to amphibians.