Effect Of Population Age Structure Research Articles

The burden of disease and economic growth: The nonlinear effect of population age structure

This study aims to detangle the impact of health on economic growth as empirical evidence shows a mixture of findings. We use data on the Burden of Disease (BoD) from the Institute of Health Metric Evaluation (IHME) to measure health capital and the economic data of 87 countries from 1990 to 2018. Using panel threshold regression, this study shows that the old dependency ratio is a good measure of the threshold variable, which divides the country groups into four. The BoD, whether it comes from communicable diseases (CD), non-communicable diseases (NCD), or injuries, has a negative impact on economic growth. However, the negative relation is somewhat diminished as the population gets older, demonstrating that the BoD's impact on economic growth is less pronounced for the older population than the younger population.

Investigating the Relationship between Population Structure and Poverty

Introduction: Poverty reduction is one of the important macroeconomic goals of any country, but achieving this important issue requires examining the factors affecting it. Changing the age structure of the population is one of the effective factors in reducing poverty in countries. Therefore, governments can make the most of their population, given the capacity of countries and providing the necessary conditions, and as a result, achieve high growth and development among countries. The purpose of this study is to investigate and analyze the effect of population age structure on poverty in Iran. Method: The method of this research is analytical-descriptive. First, theoretical topics and experimental studies and research data are collected, and the appropriate analysis model is selected. Then, with the Generalized Method of Momen for Iran since 1975 until 2017, the desired research models have been estimated, and finally, using statistical and econometric inferences, the research results have been studied. Findings: In general, according to the results, it can be concluded that the dependent population of the child and years of schooling have a negative and significant relationship with the dependent variable, the elderly dependent population has a negative and significant relationship with the dependent variable and also the percentage of trade in GDP and Physical capital inventories have a negative relationship with the dependent variable. Discussion: In this study, the years of schooling, the percentage of trade in GDP, as well as capital stock are based on a coefficient that agrees with the theory. The positive effect of the elderly population on poverty reduction indicates the existence of high savings in old age. Paying attention to the growth of highly educated employees as well as employing specialized personnel increases the productivity of the labor force and also creates the possibility of creating new production methods that have significant effects on poverty reduction.

Effects of population age structure on parenteral antimicrobial use estimations

Antimicrobial use (AMU) is conventionally reported as unadjusted defined daily doses (DDDs) or population-adjusted DDDs per 1000 inhabitants per day (DID). DID is frequently used to monitor national AMU trends, this metric does not intrinsically take temporal changes in population age structure into account. We examined the effects of population age structure on DID estimates of parenteral AMU in Japan, and predicted future trends in DDDs based on population projections. Parenteral AMU data from 2013 to 2018 were acquired from a national claims database. We assessed temporal trends in parenteral AMU by age group (children aged < 15 years, working-age persons aged 15–64 years, and older persons aged ≥ 65 years) using both DID and DDDs. In addition, we modeled DDD predictions based on age-specific population projections from 2019 to 2030. DID values for older persons were 8.08–10.15 times and 5.43–5.63 times higher than in children and working-age persons, respectively. DID was stable, but DDDs increased in older persons. The prediction models showed that DDDs will continue to increase until 2030 if DID remains steady or decreases. DID estimates were skewed by the older population. More rigorous antimicrobial stewardship efforts targeting geriatric care are needed to counter the aging-associated increase in AMU.

Demographic and epidemiological decomposition analysis of global changes in suicide rates and numbers over the period 1990–2019

BackgroundSuicide presents an ongoing public health challenge internationally. Nearly 800 000 people around the world lose their life to suicide every year, and many more attempt suicide.MethodsA decomposition analysis was...

Demographic aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, Spain, Germany, and South Korea

The COVID-19 Pandemic has become an object of many studies and research papers. Although knowledge of the demographic features of the illness could be important for targeting the prevention, or treatment and evaluation, of the situation, demographic research was rather limited in the initial phases of the pandemic. This paper aims to present the basic demographic aspects of the illness (age-specific and crude rates) and to estimate the effects of age-specific rates and age structures on the overall, generally used measures. For this analysis, Italy, Spain, Germany, and South Korea were selected. The most important differences among these countries were traced based on the age-specific measures and age structures. The demographic method of decomposition was used for the most crucial part of the analysis. It was proven that the level of incidence (particularly at higher ages) is noticeably significant regarding the observed differences. The effects of population age structure and the level of fatality are somewhat weaker.

Effects of Population Age Structure on Economic Growth in China

It is widely believed that age structure change is one of the reasons for China’s rapid economic growth. While most of the studies have concentrated on the linear relationship between age structure changes and economic growth, this paper investigates the non-linear relationship by incorporating quadratic terms of child dependency ratio and aged dependency ratio involved through “Cobb-Douglas” production function. The results of empirical analysis on Chinese panel data of 31 provinces from1990 to 2015 reveal that age structure has significant non-linear effects on economic growth: child dependency ratio has a “Ushape” relationship with economic growth; aged dependency ratio has an “inverted U-shape” relationship with economic growth.

Effect of population age structure on capacity for biomass cogeneration: A case study of a rural area in China

To improve the overall efficiency of biomass cogeneration, a case study was conducted in a rural area to investigate the effect of the age structure of the local population on the total capacity of the biomass cogeneration system. The age-structure-based energy consumption data of 150 households were obtained through a questionnaire survey. The data treatment and function fitting yielded functional relationships between the average family age and the annual household electricity, heat, total energy consumptions and the heat–electricity ratio of biomass cogeneration. Conclusions can be summarized as follows: (1) The annual household electricity, heat and total energy consumptions peak at average family ages of approximately 40, 60 and 55, respectively. The heat–electricity ratio of biomass cogeneration peaks at an average family age of approximately 68. (2) During the heating period, the heat–electricity ratio of biomass cogeneration is positively related to the difference between indoor and outdoor temperatures, while during the non-heating period, the ratio is stable. (3) The total capacity of biomass cogeneration estimated based on the age structure of the local population (Method A) may not be consistent with that estimated based on the per-capita energy consumption (Method B). As the total energy consumption varies in a parabolic pattern with the average family age, the estimate yielded by Method A is smaller than that yielded by Method B if the average family age is smaller than 35 or larger than 73; the two methods yield similar estimates if the average family age falls in the range of 35–73.

Population age structure and consumption expenditure composition: Evidence from European countries

This paper aims at evaluating the effect of population age structure on households’ aggregate preferences and, through this channel, on the sectoral composition of the final consumption expenditure. The analysis of European COICOP 2-digit data shows that the contribution of demographic dynamics to model fit is highly relevant, only slightly lower than the contribution of the income effect.

Demographics and Asset Markets: A Survey of the Literature

This paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature examining the effects of population age structure on financial asset prices, including critical reviews of the methodologies used and an evaluation of contradictory results. The survey focuses on the effects of the Baby Boom generation on asset prices, and in particular, the question of the asset meltdown hypothesis (AMH). The existing literature reveals that an asset meltdown may never eventuate nevertheless it remains plausible that ageing of the Baby Boomers will have a significant negative impact on asset prices. The previous studies were based on where the proportion of the old age population is relatively low. With the first Baby Boomers reaching 65 years of age in 2011 this proportion is projected to increase substantially and hence the effect is reinforced. Thus new research is needed to address the unresolved issues given that population ageing has serious policy issues in the developed economies.

The Impact of Population Age Structure on Real Estates Price—Evidence from China Provincial Panel Data

As “demographic dividend” gradually disappears, and two-child policy boosts, and the prototype of the aging society gradually shows, changes in population age structure in our country may appear. While the change of population age structure will affect the demand for housing, and then affect the price of housing. This article will make use of 2004-2014 provincial panel data of 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions, in the control of variables: per capita income, housing supply factors, inflation, whole population to study the effects of population age structure on real estate prices. With the study, it was found that total dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio are on an inverse relationship towards ordinary residence price. In particular, elderly dependency ratio is negatively related to high-grade residential property prices. On the further study, I found that the eastern region real estate price is most sensitive to the changes in the dependency ratio.

Can we keep the pre-crisis living standards? An analysis based on NTA profiles in Spain

Abstract In the context of the deep economic crisis affecting most western countries, but specially Southern Europe, some voices have claimed that Spaniards had been living beyond their means. In this paper, we try to shed some light on this issue by using National Transfer Accounts (NTA). We estimate the NTA for 2008 and compare them with the obtained previously for 2000 (Patxot et al., 2011a), obtaining interesting conclusions. The aggregated lifecycle deficit – difference between consumption and labour income – has increased from 8.8% of GDP in 2000 to 10.1% in 2008. The aggregated LCD evolution is driven on the one hand by the change in per capita profiles and, on the other hand by the change in population age structure. Along the observed period, the effect of population has been quite positive, due to the effect of migration, so that the economic support ratio has increased. In absence of population changes, LCD would have increased 2 percentage more points in terms of GDP. Nevertheless, the positive effect of population age structure is ending and the opposite effect is expected for the next decades with the baby boom retirement. Hence, our conclusion is that the levels of labour income and consumption by age observed in 2008 are not sustainable in the coming decades.

Impact of Demographic Structure on Carbon Di Oxide Emissions: India's Sectoral Experience

In the paper I analyze the effect of population age structure on India’s environment burden. I conduct the analysis for 19 consumption sectors using an extension of IPAT framework. Results show that the per capita environment burden peaks for the age cohort between forty-one and fifty and declines thereafter. Results also show that Education, Clothing and Cereals have the highest environment burden footprint among the sectors analyzed. Keeping everything else constant, future demographic changes should have a marginal effect on the environment burden of the sectors in question.

POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE, SAVING, CAPITAL FLOWS AND THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

Abstract This paper surveys the existing literature on the effects of population age structure on saving, capital flows and the real exchange rate. We build on previous surveys of age structure and saving behaviour by including extensive discussion of international linkages, specifically the impact on capital flows and real exchange rates. We also point to unresolved issues that need to be addressed given that population aging has serious policy implications in the developed economies these days.

THE RELEVANCE OF GENE FLOW IN METAPOPULATION DYNAMICS OF AN OCEANIC ISLAND ENDEMIC, OLEA EUROPAEA SUBSP. GUANCHICA

Theoretical and empirical studies suggest that geographical isolation and extinction-recolonization dynamics are two factors causing strong genetic structure in metapopulations, but their consequences in species with high dispersal abilities have not been tested at large scales. Here, we investigated the effect of population age structure and isolation by distance in the patterns of genetic diversity in a wind-pollinated, zoochorous tree (Olea europaea subsp. guanchica) sporadically affected by volcanic events across the Canarian archipelago. Genetic variation was assessed at six nuclear microsatellites (nDNA) and six chloroplast fragments (cpDNA) in nine subpopulations sampled on four oceanic islands. Subpopulations occurring on more recent substrates were more differentiated than those on older substrates, but within-subpopulation genetic diversity was not significantly different between age groups for any type of marker. Isolation-by-distance differentiation was observed for nDNA but not for cpDNA, in agreement with other metapopulation studies. Contrary to the general trend for island systems, between-island differentiation was extremely low, and lower than differentiation between subpopulations on the same island. The pollen-to-seed ratio was close to one, two orders of magnitude lower than the average estimated for other wind-pollinated, animal-dispersed plants. Our results showed that population turnover and geographical isolation increased genetic differentiation relative to an island model at equilibrium, but overall genetic structure was unexpectedly weak for a species distributed among islands. This empirical study shows that extensive gene flow, particularly mediated by seeds, can ameliorate population subdivision resulting from extinction-recolonization dynamics and isolation by distance.