Effects Of Non-climatic Factors Research Articles

Differential effects of climatic and non-climatic factors on the distribution of vegetation phenology trends on the Tibetan plateau

The study of vegetation phenology changes is important because it is a sensitive indicator of climate change, affecting the exchange of carbon, energy and water fluxes between the land and the atmosphere. Previous studies have focused on the effects of climatic factors among environmental factors on vegetation phenology, thus the effects of non-climatic factors among environmental factors have not been well quantified. This study endeavors to scrutinize the spatiotemporal inconsistency in the start-of-season (SOS) and the end-of-season (EOS) on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and to quantify the effects of environmental factors on phenology. To this end, the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiomater (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 2001 to 2018 and four common used methods were employed to extract SOS and EOS, and the site data was used to select the most appropriate phenology results. The Geodetector model was used to assess and measure the explanatory power of different environmental factors. The research results indicate that temperature exerts a more substantial impact on phenology than precipitation on TP. non-climatic factors such as longitude, latitude, and elevation are more influential in determining the distribution of phenological trends than climatic factors. Among these non-climatic factors, latitude has the most prominent effect on the trends of SOS. Furthermore, non-climatic factors exhibit a stronger effect on SOS, whereas EOS is more susceptible to climatic factors and less influenced by non-climatic factors. These discoveries bear great significance in comprehending the intricate outcomes of regional changes on vegetation phenology and enhancing phenology models.

Cirques of the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau and Their Links to Climatic and Non-Climatic Factors.

Cirque morphology is used to reflect the patterns of paleoclimate, paleoglaciation, and landscape evolution. Cirque study has been conducted in the Gangdise Mountains of the southern Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the central TP (dominated by a weak Indian summer monsoon (ISM) or a continental climate). This study focused on the cirques in the southeastern TP, which is dominated by a strong ISM, to analyse the controlling factors on cirque morphology. A total of 361 cirques were mapped in the Taniantaweng Range of the southeastern TP, and their metrics were calculated. The results showed that the cirque sizes increased with temperature and decreased with precipitation, which may be due to the development of valley-type glaciers and the effect of non-climatic factors. The cirques tended to face NE, implying that they prefer leeward slopes, and they were under the ‘morning–afternoon’ effect. With altitude, the tendency of the cirque aspect shifted from N to SE, and the cirque size decreased. The former may indicate the ability of the high altitude to support cirque development on climatically unfavourable slopes; the latter may be due to the development of valley-type glaciers or insufficient space for cirque development. The cirque size and shape did not show statistical differences between aspects. The cirques on soft bedrocks had larger heights than those on hard bedrocks, indicating that soft bedrocks promote subglacial erosion. A comparison with the results of the western, central, and eastern sectors of the Gangdise Mountains and the central TP reveals that the strength of the ISM did not necessarily increase the cirque density but limited the cirque size on a regional scale. The CFA did not show a reverse relationship with precipitation, but it showed a positive correlation with the cirque Zmean, which implies that the CFA was greatly affected by altitude, and its distribution does not always reflect paleoclimatic patterns.

Precipitation and Anthropogenic Activities Jointly Green the China–Mongolia–Russia Economic Corridor

Climate change and anthropogenic activities are widely considered the main factors affecting vegetation growth. However, their relative contributions are under debate. Within the non-climatic impact, detailed human activities, particularly government policy adjustments, are less investigated. In this study, we develop a fractional vegetation coverage (FVC) extraction method based on MODIS-EVI satellite data to analyze the spatiotemporal variation of vegetation and its attributions in the China–Mongolia–Russia Economic Corridor (CMREC). The average FVC has improved, with a general increase of 0.02/10a from 2000 to 2020. We construct a driving factor identification system for FVC change, based on partial and multiple correlation coefficients, and we divide the driving forces of FVC changes into seven climate-driven types and one non-climate-driven type. The results reveal that FVC changes caused by climatic factors account for 28.2% of CMREC. The most prominent greening (19.5%) is precipitation-driven, and is extensively distributed in Khentii Aimag, Mongolia; southeast Inner Mongolia; west Jilin Province; and southwest Heilongjiang Province, China. Moreover, we quantify the relative contribution of climatic and non-climatic factors to significant FVC change using the first-difference multivariate regression method. The results indicate that the effects of non-climatic factors on vegetation change outweigh those of climatic factors in most areas. According to the land cover change and regional policy adjustment, anthropogenic activities such as afforestation, reclamation, and planting structure adjustment explain most vegetation improvement in the Northeast Plain; eastern Inner Mongolia; and the Hetao Irrigation District, China. Meanwhile, both vegetation improvement and degradation disperse concurrently in the Mongolian and Russian parts of CMREC, where climate change and anthropogenic activities positively and negatively affect vegetation change, respectively. Despite the greening in most CMREC, it must be noted that human-induced greening is unsustainable to some degree. The overdevelopment of black soil area and sandy land, adverse effects of afforestation projects, and natural hazards related to weather and climate extremes altogether threaten the local ecological security in the long run. Therefore, governments should develop new desertification countermeasures in accordance with the laws of nature, and enhance international cooperation to guarantee the ecological safety of CMREC.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of the soil freeze-thaw state and its variation under different land use types - A case study in Northeast China

With global warming, the soil freeze-thaw state has greatly changed, which has profoundly impacted the balance between water resources, ecological security and regional agriculture and forestry production in frozen regions. Based on daily soil freezing/thawing depth data in Heilongjiang Province over the last 60 years, Mann-Kendall trend analysis, Sen's slope and Hurst exponent were performed to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of the soil freeze-thaw state, and the effects of nonclimatic factors "land use types" and snow cover on the change in the soil freeze-thaw state were discussed. The results indicated that (1) the soil freeze-thaw state significantly changed over the past 60 years. The maximum seasonally frozen depth decreased approximately by 48 cm, the first freezing date was delayed by approximately 10 d, the first thawing date and last date advanced approximately by 6 and 27 d, respectively, the freezing and thawing periods decreased by approximately 17 and 21 d, respectively, and the duration and actual number of freezing days decreased by 38 and 34 d, respectively. (2) The soil freeze-thaw state changed abruptly in 1988 and exhibited a significant trend after the 1990s. The Hurst exponent of the soil freeze-thaw state variables at approximately 2/3 of the stations reached the strong persistence level. (3) In forestland and grassland areas, vegetation coverage reduced the climate warming impact on the soil freeze-thaw state. In addition, the maximum snow depth was significantly correlated with the soil freezing depth and first thawing date, and the change in snow depth also offset the effects of temperature rise on soil freezing depth and first thawing date to a certain extent. Changes in the soil freeze-thaw state have both advantages and disadvantages on agricultural production. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen agricultural monitoring and use territorial knowledge to reasonably regulate agricultural production.

Rehabilitation of Coastal Habitat: A Vital Management Tool for Protecting Biodiversity and Livelihood against Climatic and Non-Climatic Factors

Coral reefs and seagrasses are important for biodiversity and liveli­hood but they are fast degrading owing to climatic and non-climatic factors. The impacts of climate change since 1998 and the effects of non-climatic factors, mainly destructive fishing practices, mining, pollution, and coastal development, have altered the community structure and health of corals and seagrasses. Low-tech and low-cost transplantation techniques have been successfully standard­ized and implemented in the Gulf of Mannar, southeast India. A coral rehabilita­tion technique, perfected in 2002, comprising selection of site, identification of suitable native species, precision in fragmentation, choosing fragment size, fix­ing positions, and effective monitoring protocols, resulted in good growth and a survival of 80.1%. The average annual growth was 13.5 cm in fast-growing branching corals and 1.8 cm in massive corals. There was also considerable in­crease in coral cover, recruit density, and population size of fish and associated macrofauna. Likewise, a rehabilitation program for seagrass was started in 2008. Seagrass shoots in the rehabilitated areas showed a good survival rate of 85.04% with increased biodiversity. Rehabilitation of degraded coral and seagrass areas is a viable management practice for the restoration of the ecosys­tem services like fishery, coastal protection, and tourism as well as enhancing ecosystem resilience.

Climate change and food security of the Malaysian east coast poor: a path modeling approach

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the direct and indirect impacts of climatic changes as well as the effects of non-climatic factors on household food security in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach – The study is based on primary data collected in the months of July – October, 2012 through a questionnaire survey on 460 low-income households from East Coast Economic Region (ECER) of the country. The samples were selected from E-Kasih poor household database, based on cluster random sampling technique. The statistical estimation was done through two-stage formative path measurement model by using non-parametric bootstrap procedure under Smart PLS. Findings – This study finds that household food insecurity ECER – Malaysia is not only related to social and economic factors, but also statistically significantly linked to the direct and indirect impacts of climatic factors. The policy implications of the study suggest that design of food security programs must be integrated with climatic change adaptation programs. Originality/value – The government and other relevant agencies should jointly develop appropriate policies for poverty alleviation, household-level food security, and adaptation with climatic changes in Malaysia.

Climate suitability for European ticks: assessing species distribution models against null models and projection under AR5 climate.

BackgroundThere is increasing evidence that the geographic distribution of tick species is changing. Whilst correlative Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used to predict areas that are potentially suitable for ticks, models have often been assessed without due consideration for spatial patterns in the data that may inflate the influence of predictor variables on species distributions. This study used null models to rigorously evaluate the role of climate and the potential for climate change to affect future climate suitability for eight European tick species, including several important disease vectors.MethodsWe undertook a comparative assessment of the performance of Maxent and Mahalanobis Distance SDMs based on observed data against those of null models based on null species distributions or null climate data. This enabled the identification of species whose distributions demonstrate a significant association with climate variables. Latest generation (AR5) climate projections were subsequently used to project future climate suitability under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).ResultsSeven out of eight tick species exhibited strong climatic signals within their observed distributions. Future projections intimate varying degrees of northward shift in climate suitability for these tick species, with the greatest shifts forecasted under the most extreme RCPs. Despite the high performance measure obtained for the observed model of Hyalomma lusitanicum, it did not perform significantly better than null models; this may result from the effects of non-climatic factors on its distribution.ConclusionsBy comparing observed SDMs with null models, our results allow confidence that we have identified climate signals in tick distributions that are not simply a consequence of spatial patterns in the data. Observed climate-driven SDMs for seven out of eight species performed significantly better than null models, demonstrating the vulnerability of these tick species to the effects of climate change in the future.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1046-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A Methodology to Infer Crop Yield Response to Climate Variability and Change Using Long-Term Observations

A new methodology to extract crop yield response to climate variability and change from long-term crop yield observations is presented in this study. In contrast to the existing first-difference approach (FDA), the proposed methodology considers that the difference in value between crop yields of two consecutive years reflects necessarily the contributions of climate and management conditions, especially at large spatial scales where both conditions may vary significantly from one year to the next. Our approach was applied to remove the effect of non-climatic factors on crop yield and, hence, to isolate the effect of the observed climate change between 1961 and 2006 on three widely crops grown in three Mediterranean countries—namely wheat, corn and potato—using national-level crop yield observations’ time-series. Obtained results show that the proposed methodology provides us with a ground basis to improve substantially our understanding of crop yield response to climate change at a scale that is relevant to large-scale estimations of agricultural production and to food security analyses; and therefore to reduce uncertainties in estimations of potential climate change effects on agricultural production. Furthermore, a comparison of outputs of our methodology and FDA outputs yielded a difference in terms of maize production in Egypt, for example, that exceeds the production of some neighbouring countries.

Response of forest distribution to past climate change: An insight into future predictions

Vegetation dynamics could lead to changes in the global carbon and hydrology cycle, as well as feedbacks to climate change. This paper reviews the response of forest dynamics to climate change. Based on palaeoecological studies, we summarized the features and modes of vegetation response to climate change and categorized the impacts of climate change on vegetation dynamics as three types: climate stress on vegetation, buffer effects by non-climatic factors, and perturbation of the vegetation distribution by stochastic events. Due to the openness of the vegetation system and the integrated effects of both climatic and non-climatic factors, the vegetation-climate relationship deviates far from its equilibrium. The vegetation distribution shows a non-linear response to climate change, which also makes it difficult to quantify the modern vegetation distribution in terms of specific climatic factors. Past analog, space-for-time-substitution and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are three approaches to predicting the future vegetation distribution, but they have all been established on the assumption of vegetation-climate equilibrium. We propose that improving DGVMs is a future task for studies of vegetation dynamics because these are process-based models incorporating both disturbance (e.g. fire) and the variability in Plant Functional Types (PFTs). However, palaeoecological results should be used to test the models, and issues like spatial and temporal scale, complexity of climate change, effects of non-climatic factors, vegetation-climate feedback, and human regulation on vegetation dynamics are suggested as topics for future studies.