Effects Of Macroeconomic Fluctuations Research Articles

The Macroeconomic Effects on Non-Performing Loan and its Implication on Allowance for Impairment Losses

The change in the Allowance for Impairment Losses calculation method from FASS 55 to FASS 71 in Indonesia requires banks to consider macroeconomic variables as variables in calculating Allowance for Impairment Losses. This research has an objective to study and analyze the effect of macroeconomic proxied by GDP, inflation, exchange rate, unemployment rate, BI rate, and loan growth on NPL and its implications for Allowance for Impairment Losses. The population of this research was issuers of foreign exchange banks in 2011-2019, with a total sample of 26 issuers of foreign exchange banks. This research uses the panel data regression method to analyze the data. The research results found that macroeconomic variables proxied by GDP, inflation, exchange rates, unemployment rate, BI rate, and loan growth did not significantly affect NPL. In contrast, NPL had a significant effect on Allowance for Impairment Losses. This research implies that banks are expected to improve credit quality management against the effects of macroeconomic fluctuations. As a result, the NPL ratio remains under control and does not increase the burden of Allowance for Impairment Losses.

The business cycle, health behavior, and chronic disease: A study over Three decades

The effect of macroeconomic fluctuations on individual health remains highly debated. We estimate the effect of the business cycle on health and health behavior in the U.S. using the NLSY79 panel data for 11,406 respondents between 1979 and 2014. Most of our survey respondents have no chronic illness in 1979, and develop these conditions during the sample period. This allows us to estimate the true effect of economic fluctuation on the likelihood of developing chronic conditions. The results indicate a considerable difference in the cyclic variation of chronic diseases. After controlling for innate individual characteristics such as family health history, and unobserved regional characteristics, we find that obesity decreases during economic downturns, while diabetes, hypertension, and congestive heart failure increase. Sub-sample analyses show that Blacks are more likely to develop diabetes and hypertension and are less likely to develop obesity during economic downturns than other racial groups. The incidence of obesity declines during recessions for women, while males are more likely to develop diabetes. Income loss, particularly among Blacks, and lack of change in physical activity mediate these differential effects.

Effects of macroeconomic fluctuations on mental health and psychotropic medicine consumption.

Our aim in this paper is to understand the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on mental health and psychotropic medicine consumption. In order to do that we exploit differences in the fluctuations of business cycle conditions across regional units in Catalonia. Our findings suggest that, in general, economic fluctuations at the local level had no significant effect on the consumption of psychotropic medicines. However, we show that a deterioration in local labour market conditions is associated with a reduction in the consumption of anxiolytics medicines. We also report an increase in the consumption of anxiolytics in regions with a softer deterioration in the economic situation. Although we report mild improvements in both mental and physical health for some sub-groups of the population, we also find significant reductions on the probability of sleeping 6h or more. Thus, these elements point towards potential negative effects of local labour market conditions on health in the medium/long term.

Introduction to the James Berkovec Memorial Issue

Jim Berkovec’s interest in applied economics spanned a broad subject range. His work reflected a keen ability to address timely and significant issues of public policy via the application of cutting-edge econometric methods and data. Some of his earliest research on energy and transportation economics was motivated in part by the late-1970s spike in energy costs and the challenge of delivering cost-effective travel. His early research interests covered fuelefficient vehicles and residential energy demand (such as for heating and appliances) and culminated in his dissertation on the automobile market. His early peer-reviewed publications emanated from that work and subsequently James Berkovec evolved into an interest in the effects of macroeconomic fluctuations on housing consumption and investment. While in the Division of Research and Statistics of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, his research moved toward labor market issues and the economics of failed banks, an important issue in the aftermath of the widespread failures of banks and savings-institutions during the late 1980s and early 1990s. By the early 1990s, he also began to work on issues surrounding racial discrimination in mortgage lending and published a series of influential papers on that topic. Further, it was through that work that Jim became a recognized expert in empirical methods of mortgage performance, notably including models of mortgage default and prepayment. Jim further deepened his expertise in

The Pure Effect of Macroeconomic Fluctuations on Medical Care Utilization

The Pure Effect of Macroeconomic Fluctuations on Medical Care Utilization

The Effect of Macroeconomic Fluctuations on the Inflows and Outflows of Migrants in Spain

This essay analyzes the impact of economic fluctuations on migration flows. To do so, the determinants of the inflows and outflows of migrants have been estimated. We find significant evidence on the effect that the macroeconomic fluctuations on the short run has on both flows, although the effect on the inflows is greater in number and strength. Therefore it can be expected that in the actual cyclical phase the migrant population growth will decelerate, especially through a reduction in inflows.

The Impact of Aggregate and Sectoral Fluctuations on Training Decisions

The literature has not resolved yet whether the effect of macroeconomic fluctuations on training decisions is positive or negative. On the one hand, the opportunity cost to train is lower during downturns, and thus training should be counter-cyclical. On the other hand, a positive shock may be related to the adoption of new technologies and increased returns to skill, making training incidence pro-cyclical. Using the Canadian panel of Workplace and Employee Survey (WES) we document another important channel at work: the relative position of a sector also matters. We find not only that training moves counter-cyclically with the aggregate business cycle (more training during downturns), but also that the idiosyncratic sectoral shocks have a positive impact on training incidence (more training in sectors doing relatively better). These findings help us better understand training decisions by firms.

School Attendance, Child Labor and Local Labor Market Fluctuations in Urban Brazil

While the income (poverty) effect on child labor is long established as a main determinant of child labor, there is a growing body of literature considering the pull of the labor market. This paper demonstrates that after controlling for household characteristics, employment rates for 14–16 year old boys and girls in urban Brazil increase as local labor market opportunities improve. Children are also more likely to leave school as local labor market conditions become more favorable. The relationship between children’s schooling and work and local labor market conditions changes in years of crisis compared to other years. The effects of macroeconomic fluctuations on children’s school and work behavior are examined with particular focus on whether the income effect or substitution effect dominates as macroeconomic conditions change over time. The study uses data from the Pesquisa Nacional Amostra de Domicilios, a large household survey that is conducted almost annually by the IBGE. We use variation in the urban areas of 25 states over 12 years to identify the aggregate effects.

The Effect of Macroeconomic Fluctuations on the Electoral Fortunes of House Incumbents

The effect of macroeconomic fluctuations on House elections is a long debated, but still unresolved, issue. We argue that return rates are theoretically superior to vote shares as measures of electoral acountability and that incumbents, not candidates of the president's party, are the legislators voters hold responsible. We develop and test an incumbent accountability model using incumbent return rates in the U.S. House from 1916 to 1994, finding a strongly significant effect of both income growth and the misery index. However, the data reject both our pure incumbency model and the traditional presidential party model, indicating that both factors are relevant to voters.

The determinants and consequences of across-the-board trade restrictions in the U.S. economy

This paper examines the effect of macroeconomic fluctuations in the determination of across-the-board trade restrictions in the U.S. economy. The empirical results reported show that generalized trade intervention is most immediately affected by wealth transfer abroad through the trade balance and not by a slowing in employment growth. Furthermore, trade restrictions are associated with a decline in the stock market and aggregate employment.

THE EFFECTS OF MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME*

This study develops a microanalytic simulation model to examine the effects of macroeconomic fluctuations on the distribution on the distribution of income. A representational sample of the population of the United States is linked with equations determining the variability of various types of factor income. Each family's income experience is simulated under alternative aggregate conditions, and the income distributions arising under these conditions are compared. The main results are similar for alternative specifications of the model. The incidence of a downturn in economic activity, whether accompanied by changes in the rate of inflation or not, and measured in terms of the loss of factor income, leaves the upper middle class relatively better off than before and leaves most others relatively worse off. The very rich bear the heaviest burden.