Effect Of Euro Research Articles

How much is it about the money? Using facebook to promote a web survey during the COVID-19 pandemic and estimating average response-returns on ad-investments

The use of ads posted on online social networks has become a popular strategy to recruit survey participants. This paper quantifies the returns from ad-investments in terms of the number of responses. We use as a case study a survey about living and working conditions that was promoted in Spain via Facebook from March 2020 to October 2021. Results show that the effect of each additional euro invested in Facebooks ads daily generated between 2 and 2.8 additional completed surveys per day. These results are stable and consistent throughout the period we study. Nonetheless, we find that the number of survey responses tended to be significantly higher when the COVID-19 restrictions imposed were tighter. Our findings are relevant and have practical implications for future survey research.

Modelling the Effects of Euro 7 Emission standard on Passenger Car Emissions in Germany

Road traffic represents a significant source of air pollution and greenhouse gases, particularly in urban areas. A new emission standard for passenger cars – Euro 7, coming into force in 2025 - is currently elaborated at European level to improve the air quality situation and thus the prerequisite for human well-being in the EU. The legislative proposal is expected to be published in 2022. This paper focusses on the evaluation of the effectiveness of Euro 7 standard with regard to vehicle fleet emissions in Germany. To this end, emission trend scenarios were generated for relevant exhaust gas components by applying the TREMOD model. Hereby, a strong reduction potential becomes apparent for hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxide emissions up to 2035. Assumptions laid down in this study need to be verified with real-world emission data when the new emission standard comes into force.

Evaluation of roadside air quality using deep learning models after the application of the diesel vehicle policy (Euro 6)

Euro 6 is the latest vehicle emission standards for pollutants such as CO, NO2 and PM, that all new vehicles must comply, and it was introduced in September 2015 in South Korea. This study examined the effect of Euro 6 by comparing the measured pollutant concentrations after 2016 (Euro 6–era) to the estimated concentrations without Euro 6. The concentration without Euro 6 was estimated by first modeling the air quality using various environmental factors related to diesel vehicles, meteorological conditions, temporal information such as date and precursors in 2002–2015 (pre–Euro 6–era), and then applying the model to predict the concentration after 2016. In this study, we used both recurrent neural network (RNN) and random forest (RF) algorithms to model the air quality and showed that RNN can achieve higher R2 (0.634 ~ 0.759 depending on pollutants) than RF, making it more suitable for air quality modeling. According to our results, the measured concentrations during 2016–2019 were lower than the concentrations predicted using RNN by − 1.2%, − 3.4%, and − 4.8% for CO, NO2 and PM10. Such reduction can be attributed to the result of Euro 6.

A non-parametric assessment of the effects of the Euro on GVC trade

This work makes a fresh contribution to the long-standing debate on the trade effects of the euro. Its novelty lies in the joint use of trade in value added and non-parametric techniques. Specifically: i) we measure bilateral trade in value added to proxy backward and forward global value chain (GVC) linkages within the eurozone; ii) we compare these outcomes for treated and untreated units by disentangling long-term and short-term effects of the euro, taking advantage of panel data and combining matching and difference-in-difference approaches. Results show no robust evidence of a positive post-assessment of the euro effect on intra-eurozone GVC trade. These findings are robust to a set of sensitivity tests such as looking both at the intensity and composition of trade in value added flows and extending the sample to various control groups and datasets. We believe that our findings contribute to the long-standing debate on the euro by complementing the previous empirical evidence and providing an overall coherent and informative picture for policymaking.

Is There a Euro Effect in European Football?

Is There a Euro Effect in European Football?

Is there a euro effect in the drivers of US FDI? New evidence using Bayesian model averaging techniques

In this paper the authors analyze the potential determinants of US outward FDI stock with a particular focus on the euro effect during the period 1985–2017. To this aim, they consider a large set of candidate variables suggested both by theory and previous empirical analysis. They select the covariates using Bayesian model averaging, a data-driven methodology. Their sample includes a total of 56 host countries, that represent around the 70% of US outward FDI stock. They study the role of the euro on American FDI both in Europe and the rest of the world. In Europe, they consider various country groups: the European Union (EU), the euro area (EA), as well as core and periphery within this last group. They conclude that many variables studied by previous FDI literature cannot be considered robust determinants. Moreover, US OFDI is explained by both horizontal and vertical motives. However, HFDI strategies predominate in EA core countries, whereas VFDI prevails in the periphery. As for the euro effect, the common currency seems to have played an important role encouraging US FDI, being a crucial element in the convergence of EA periphery to its core. In addition, the results indicate that the adoption of the euro has favoured VFDI to the detriment of HFDI.

Bayesian estimation of the Eurozone currency union effect

AbstractThis paper uses Bayesian methods to estimate the European (Monetary) Union effect on trade. The high dimensionality of the parameter space when estimating gravity equations with many dummy variables results in standard hypothesis tests with a large Type I (false positive) error. Bayesian methods are able to handle this problem; they also provide a principled method of model selection that can be applied to different specifications of the dummy variables. Bayesian model selection tests prefer our most unrestricted dummy specification, which includes asymmetric bilateral effects, as well as time‐varying, country‐specific factors. Our estimate shows a zero Euro effect on trade, but a 14.8% increase in imports for a member of the European Union during 1980–2004.

Effects of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices on Turkish Foreign Trade

Exchange rate and oil prices play an important role in a country’s trade performance. Whether determined by exogenous shocks or by a policy, the relative valuations of currencies and their volatility often have important impact on international trade, the balance of payments and overall economic performance. This study aims to analyze Turkey’s foreign trade with Euro Area and USA separately between 2010-2016 time periods. We have estimated three different regressions. First one is for analyzing the effects of euro on Turkey-Euro area foreign trade, the second one is for determining the effects of US dollar on Turkey-USA foreign trade and the third one is for examining the effects of oil prices on oil trade between Turkey and Russia. For this study we use the panel regression techniques. As a result we can conclude that countries should monitor their exchange rate relative not only to that of their trading partners but also in relation to that of their competitors.

The euro's effect on trade: an analysis of "old" and "new" EMU members

This paper provides new empirical evidence of the ``euro effect" on bilateral trade by allowing for a heterogeneous impact on ``new" and ``old" EMU members. By applying a Poisson estimator and focusing on a sample of 38 countries, our results show a positive but statistically insignificant euro’s effect on bilateral exports. However, disaggregating this effect, we report a relatively large euro’s effect on bilateral trade for the “new” EMU countries. We also find no evidence of trade diversion, thus corroborating existing evidence. These results are robust to a number of sensitivity checks and, especially, to the use of a larger sample of countries. Finally, using country-pair and country-industry-pair data, our results indicate a reduction in export concentration in the bilateral trade of ``old" EMU countries. Instead, we find an increase in concentration in trade between ``new" and ``old" EMU countries.

Currency Unions and Trade: A PPML Re‐assessment with High‐dimensional Fixed Effects

AbstractRecent work on the effects of currency unions (CUs) on trade stresses the importance of using many countries and years in order to obtain reliable estimates. However, for large samples, computational issues associated with the three‐way (exporter‐time, importer‐time, and country pair) fixed effects currently recommended in the gravity literature have heretofore limited the choice of estimator, leaving an important methodological gap. To address this gap, we introduce an iterative poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation procedure that facilitates the inclusion of these fixed effects for large data sets and also allows for correlated errors across countries and time. When applied to a comprehensive sample with more than 200 countries trading over 65 years, these innovations flip the conclusions of an otherwise rigorously specified linear model. Most importantly, our estimates for both the overall CU effect and the Euro effect specifically are economically small and statistically insignificant. We also document that linear and PPML estimates of the Euro effect increasingly diverge as the sample size grows.

THE EURO'S TRADE EFFECT: A META‐ANALYSIS

AbstractMany studies have estimated the trade effect of the euro, but their results vary greatly. This meta‐analysis collects 3323 estimates of the euro effect along with 28 characteristics of estimation design from almost 60 studies and quantitatively examines the literature. The results show evidence of publication bias, but they also suggest that the bias decreases over time. After correcting for the bias, the meta‐analysis shows that the literature is consistent with an effect ranging between 2% and 6%. The results from Bayesian model averaging, which takes into account model uncertainty, show that the differences among estimates are systematically driven by data sources, data structure, control variables, and estimation techniques. The mean reported estimate of the euro's trade effect conditional on best‐practice approach is 3%, but is not statistically different from zero.

Market standards in financial contracting: The Euro’s effect on debt securities

The introduction of the Euro ushered in a rise to dominance of English contract law in European debt securities. Corporate issuers in the Euro zone chose English law significantly more often than a control group from other European countries. The Euro effect on choice of law is particularly strong for debt securities in local markets that, arguably, were most affected by the Euro. The Euro effect is not explained by differences in the suitability of English law compared to other laws, a change in issuer composition or debt securities types, and the greater market share of British and American underwriters. We argue that increased standardization benefits (network effects) from a boost in cross-border investment provide the best account of why English law conquered the European debt securities market.

New Evidence on Trade and FDI: how Large is the Euro Effect?

In this paper we analyse the effect that the euro has had on trade using a gravity model for 28 countries and covering the period 1990–2013. Our gravity specification includes time-varying fixed effects, correcting any possible bias that may arise from multilateral resistance variables or unobserved time-varying heterogeneity. Additionally, we explore the potential complementarity or substitution relationship between FDI and trade by including FDI inward and outward stocks in the specification. The time period in the dataset covers the creation and evolution of the European Monetary Union (EMU), starting from the introduction of notes and coins and including the recent economic crisis. Overall, our results show a positive effect of the EMU on trade and reveal the existence of a complementary relationship between trade and FDI.

Friends without benefits? New EMU members and the “Euro Effect” on trade

We re-visit the evidence about the trade benefits of European Monetary Union (EMU), focusing on the experience of countries which adopted the common currency since 2002. Based on “state of the art” gravity estimations for the period 1992–2013, we reach three main conclusions. First, estimates from an appropriately specified and estimated gravity equation provide no evidence of a euro effect on trade flows among early euro adopters up to the year 2002. Second, this finding is robust to extending the sample period to incorporate data up to 2013, covering five additional euro accessions. Third, while there is no robust evidence of a euro effect, there is evidence that intra-EU trade flows have expanded faster than the global average during the 2002–2013 period. Using the functional form of a theory-consistent gravity equation, we perform pseudo out-of-sample forecasts of trade flows for recent euro joiners. In line with our estimation results, we show that pseudo forecasts of the change in trade flows after euro accession, assuming no euro effect, outperform forecasts based on the expectation of a significantly positive effect. This suggests that euro accession countries should not expect a significant boost to their trade from joining EMU.

Political Uncertainty and Sovereign Bond Markets

This paper analyzes the effects of political uncertainty on prices and liquidity of sovereign bonds. We focus on the time period of the European sovereign debt crisis and on Italian government bonds. We study the effect of Euro, G8 and G20 summits together with relevant elections. Focusing on Italy allows us to analyze a major European government bond market based on detailed transaction data, which was highly affected by the sovereign debt crisis. In line with the theoretical literature, we find a significant drop in prices in combination with high illiquidity and sell-side pressure before the event. Prices and trading activity start to recover approximately one month after the event when the impact uncertainty of policy changes resolves. The effects are stronger when uncertainty - measured by the EPU index - is high and the economic conditions are perceived as being weak.

Credit cycle coherence in the eurozone: Was there a euro effect?

This paper examines effects of the euro introduction on credit cycle coherence in the eurozone through six channels. We construct and describe credit cycles for total bank credit, household mortgages and non-financial business loans for 16 EMU economies over 1990–2015. Credit cycle coherence is measured by synchronicity of cycle movements and similarity of their amplitudes. We find that the effect of euro introduction runs through elimination of currency risk and higher capital flows, which decrease coherence of total credit and mortgage credit cycles, but increase coherence of business credit cycles. Falling interest rates contribute to the convergence of total and mortgage credit cycles. Financial deregulation and legal harmonization are associated with lower coherence of all credit cycles, while trade openness has the opposite impact. The findings impinge on monetary policy effectiveness in the eurozone, with implications for macroprudential policy.

Choosing the open sea: The cost to the UK of staying out of the euro

In this paper we provide an estimate of the trade flows that there would have been between the UK and its main trading partners if the UK had joined the euro. As an alternative approach to the standard log-linear gravity equation, we employ the synthetic control method. We show that the aggregate trade flows between Britain and eurozone members would have been 16% higher if the UK had adopted the euro. We also provide an estimate of the (hypothetical) euro's effect on trade flows between the UK and non-euro countries. Our results suggest that the adoption of the European currency would also have led to a substantial increase in British trade flows with non-euro members. Finally, we provide a new estimate of the euro's trade impact for euro members. Our results suggest that the adoption of the single currency led to an increase in intra-European trade flows of between 19% and 55%.

The “euro effect” and Outward Foreign Direct Investment

The "euro effect" is an important phenomenon in the debate on monetary in-tegration results in Europe. While in the existing literature the impact of the euro adoption is usually studied on trade data, the main goal of the paper is to examine whether the "euro ef-fect" can be detected in Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI) flows from the OECD countries. Our approach is justified by the fact that trade and FDI are interconnected and both can be used as an internationalization strategy.Using the difference-in-differences method and the gravity equation corrected for the sam-ple selection and firm-heterogeneity biases, we investigate the trends of the strength of the impact of the euro over the 1985-2012 period. Our results suggest that the 'euro effect' is positive, is not time invariant and does not display a clear trend. It was the strongest in the years 2007 and 2008 and insignificant shortly after its introduction and during the global fi-nancial and European fiscal crises.

Friends without Benefits? New EMU Members and the ‘Euro Effect’ on Trade

We re-visit the evidence about the trade benefits of European Monetary Union (EMU), focusing on the experience of countries which adopted the common currency since 2002. Based on state of the art gravity estimations for the period 1992-2013, we reach three main conclusions. First, estimates from an appropriately specified and estimated gravity equation provide no evidence of a euro effect on trade flows among early euro adopters up to the year 2002. Second, this finding is robust to extending the sample period to incorporate data up to 2013, covering five additional euro accessions. Third, while there is no robust evidence of a euro effect, there is evidence that intra-EU trade flows have expanded faster than the global average during the 2002-2013 period. Using the functional form of a theory-consistent gravity equation, we perform pseudo out-of-sample forecasts of trade flows for recent euro joiners. In line with our estimation results, we show that pseudo forecasts of the change in trade flows after euro accession, assuming no euro effect, outperform forecasts based on the expectation of a significantly positive effect. This suggests that euro accession countries should not expect a significant boost to their trade from joining EMU.

The Currency Union Effect: A PPML Re-Assessment with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects

Recent work on the effects of currency unions (CUs) on trade stresses the importance of using many countries and years in order to obtain reliable estimates. However, for large samples, computational issues limit choice of estimator, leaving an important methodological gap. To address this gap, we unveil an iterative PPML estimator which flexibly accounts for multilateral resistance, pair-specific heterogeneity, and correlated errors across countries and time. When applied to a comprehensive sample with more than 200 countries trading over 65 years, these innovations flip the conclusions of an otherwise rigorously-specified linear model. Our estimates for both the overall CU effect and the Euro effect specifically are economically small and statistically insignificant. The effect of non-Euro CUs, however, is large and significant. Notably, linear and PPML estimates of the Euro effect increasingly diverge as the sample size grows.