Effects Of Demographic Change Research Articles

Does perceived neighbourhood social cohesion moderate the effects of demographic changes on health?

Abstract Small-area characteristics changes over time may be associated with health. Various theories have been proposed to explain small-area effects on health, including those concerning social capital. The effect of small-area demographic changes on health are very little researched and hardly anything is known about their relationship with social cohesion. We use longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel linked to demographic measures at county level. We explore the association between 5-year changes in the proportion of over 65 and of 18-24 years-old and physical and mental health and the moderating effect of perceived neighbourhood social cohesion (SC) using random intercept models. Control variables include education, income, and relevant baseline measures. Included are all participants with a 6-year continuous exposure to their county of residence. The main outcomes are the physical and mental health components (PCS, MCS) of the SF-12. We included 21,239 persons up to 6 times in 399 counties. 5-year changes in the over 65, of 18-24 and measure of SC are associated to MCS and PCS. Significant interactions between the changes in over 65 and social cohesion are seen for MCS only in rural areas and some interactions are significant for PCS. For MCS there are no interactions between social cohesion and the changes in 18-24. Important interaction effects for PCS: for those exposed to a small decrease in 18-24, an increase in one unit of SC is associated with an increase of 1.71 (95% CI[1.38, 2.03]) PCS units. For those exposed to a large decrease this effect is lower by 0.88 PCS units. Exposition to some demographic changes have the effect to reduce the positive effects of perceived social cohesion on health. Thus, demographic changes appear to be health stressors. The evidence shown by this work need to be further developed by considering smaller scales but the evidence opens up a new range of possible intervention targets to reduce health inequalities. Key messages • County level demographic changes are associated with physical and mental health and certain exposition to changes reduce the positive effects of perceived neighbourhood social cohesion. • Social cohesion can be an intervention target to reduce small-area health inequalities, population changes can annulate positive effects. This must be accounted for in public health interventions.

Strong effect of demographic changes on Tuberculosis susceptibility in South Africa.

South Africa is among the world's top eight tuberculosis (TB) burden countries, and despite a focus on HIV-TB co-infection, most of the population living with TB are not HIV co-infected. The disease is endemic across the country, with 80-90% exposure by adulthood. We investigated epidemiological risk factors for (TB) in the Northern Cape Province, South Africa: an understudied TB endemic region with extreme TB incidence (926/100,000). We leveraged the population's high TB incidence and community transmission to design a case-control study with similar mechanisms of exposure between the groups. We recruited 1,126 participants with suspected TB from 12 community health clinics and generated a cohort of 774 individuals (cases = 374, controls = 400) after implementing our enrollment criteria. All participants were GeneXpert Ultra tested for active TB by a local clinic. We assessed important risk factors for active TB using logistic regression and random forest modeling. We find that factors commonly identified in other global populations tend to replicate in our study, e.g. male gender and residence in a town had significant effects on TB risk (OR: 3.02 [95% CI: 2.30-4.71]; OR: 3.20 [95% CI: 2.26-4.55]). We also tested for demographic factors that may uniquely reflect historical changes in health conditions in South Africa. We find that socioeconomic status (SES) significantly interacts with an individual's age (p = 0.0005) indicating that protective effect of higher SES changed across age cohorts. We further find that being born in a rural area and moving to a town strongly increases TB risk, while town birthplace and current rural residence is protective. These interaction effects reflect rapid demographic changes, specifically SES over recent generations and mobility, in South Africa. Our models show that such risk factors combined explain 19-21% of the variance (r2) in TB case/control status.

Effects of Demographic Change on Economic Growth: A Panel ARDL Approach for Selected OECD Countries

Effects of Demographic Change on Economic Growth: A Panel ARDL Approach for Selected OECD Countries

The Effects of Demographic Change on GDP Growth: Research Focus on Russia

There has been a downward trend in economic growth in several economies over the past few decades, with the slowdown trend particularly evident in the case of Russia. These records estimate how much of this growth slowdown can be accounted for by demographic changes. Specifically, this study estimated how a changing age structure of the population (between four groups-ages 0-14, 15-64, and 65+) has affected GDP growth using annual time series data for Russia. The analysis is applied using the Bayesian VAR model. The data for the study are obtained from the World Bank. It was found that demographic changes account for a significant portion of the downward trend in the economic growth of Russia during the past decade. Moreover, the continuation of the demographic shift toward an older population is likely a valuable factor that has increased GDP growth in Russia over the last couple of decades. The research results point out that during the last decade; demographic effects have not had any significant influence on the change of GDP growth levels in Russia. Therefore, the research study contributes in a way indicating that future growth of GDP in Russia will depend much more on the growth of structural productivity, new technologies and worker profitability and much less on demographic changes.

Sustainability of Colonist Land Uses in the Amazon: A Demo-Livelihoods Perspective

Amazon, the largest global tropical forest, is central to counterbalance the effects of climate change. However, the extant literature has not fully explained the effects of demographic changes on land use and livelihoods sustainability that reconciles production and conservation. Using a case study of 28 years in the Brazilian Amazon, this article provided novel empirical evidences on the co-evolution of household demographic dynamics (composition and life cycles), land use and livelihoods as depicted by the demo-livelihoods theoretical framework. Methods of analysis involve the combination of exploratory (descriptive, cluster and correlation) and a multivariate hazard model. The results validated the demo-livelihoods theory and showed that livelihoods adaptation over time involves diversification combining perennials and cattle ranching, land consolidation and off-farm strategies (remittances, wage labor, cash transfers). These strategies are conditioned by demographic dynamics. Households are less likely to diversify livelihoods with annual crops due to unsustainable environmental conditions and costs associated with land intensification and market accessibility. While diversification historically occur at the expense of primary forest, household ageing may create a momentum to limit deforestation and allows the future incorporation of plot-based natural capital as a source of diversified, sustainable land uses and livelihoods for carbon emissions and bioeconomy markets.

The Effect of Demographic Changes on Real Interest Rates: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the OECD.

The Effect of Demographic Changes on Real Interest Rates: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the OECD.

Cost and productivity effects of demographic changes on local water service

We investigate the impact of demographic changes on local public services taking the case of water service. We apply a structural production function approach to a large panel of German water utilities between 2003 and 2014. Exploring variation of population density and the population age structure across service areas and over time, we provide evidence that demographics and their changes significantly affect the utilities’ productivity and costs. We find that demographic changes cause significant cost increases in rapidly shrinking and ageing regions. Our results provide important policy implications regarding the prevention of growing regional disparities in public services.

The Impact of Social Capital on Farmers’ Willingness to Adopt New Agricultural Technologies: Empirical Evidence from China

Based on the microdata of 11,547 farmers from the China Labor Dynamics Survey (CLDS) database in 2017, an ordered multi-classification logistic model was constructed to empirically test the impact of social capital (i.e., social networks, social participation, and social trust) on farmers’ willingness to adopt agricultural technology. The moderating effect of demographic changes (i.e., the number of instances of hukou migration) on social capital and farmers’ willingness to adopt new agricultural technology was further investigated. The results show that the following: (1) Social trust has a significant positive impact on farmers’ willingness to adopt new agricultural technologies, while social participation has no significant impact on farmers’ willingness to adopt new technologies. (2) Social networks influence farmers’ technology adoption behavior differently, e.g., the scope of relatives’ wedding gifts has a significant and positive influence on farmers’ technology adoption behavior, while the scope of non-relatives’ wedding gifts has no significant influence on farmers’ technology adoption behavior. (3) Demographic change plays a moderating role in the impact of social capital on farmers’ willingness to adopt new agricultural technologies. In other words, the greater the number of instances of hukou migration, the less the promoting effect of social capital on farmers’ willingness to adopt agricultural technology. (4) In the eastern and central regions of China, social capital has a significant positive impact on farmers’ adoption of new agricultural technologies. In the western region of China, social capital has a significant negative impact on farmers’ adoption of new agricultural technology. In the northeast region of China, social capital has no significant impact on farmers’ adoption of new agricultural technologies. Social capital and population changes are important factors that affect farmers’ willingness to adopt new agricultural technologies. Therefore, attention should be paid to cultivating and promoting farmers’ social capital to improve farmers’ willingness to adopt new agricultural technologies.

DEFINITION OF THE CONCEPT OF «ELDERLY PEOPLE» AS CATEGORIES OF SOCIAL WORK

The relevance of the article is due to the process of progressive aging of the population, so it requires society to find new ways of social work with the elderly. The sociological discourse of the concept of "elderly person" on the personal, ideological and family-household levels in accordance with the theory of successful aging is proposed in a systematic way. Despite the sufficient number of studies, in social work today there is no universal concept of the category of "elderly people". Consideration of concepts of successful aging, which are aimed at changing the mass perception of the elderly and old age, aging as a phenomenon, to prevent discrimination and exclusion of the elderly from society, to prevent ageism and stigmatization of this population. The purpose of this article is to characterize the definition of the concept of "elderly people" as a category of social work, its content and essence. To achieve this goal we used the following general scientific research methods: generalization - to determine the essential features of this category, analysis, which consists in combining, reproducing the links of individual elements, parties, components of a complex phenomenon and thus in understanding the whole in its unity components. The category "elderly people" plays an important role in social work, absorbs many features and meanings. One of the important conditions of social work with the elderly is the adaptation of the national social protection system to the effects of demographic change, as well as the adoption at the legislative level of a clear and uniform definition of "elderly"

Investigating the effect of demographic changes and human capital on economic growth in Iran

Investigating the effect of demographic changes and human capital on economic growth in Iran

Integrating Neighbours into an Agent-Based Travel Demand Model to Analyse Success Rates of Parcel Deliveries

The rapid growth of the e-commerce market leads us to expect a further increase in delivery vehicles in urban areas as well. This growth is expected to be accompanied by an increase in emissions while space becomes scarce. Meanwhile, people are adjusting their travel behaviour; therefore, the growing e-commerce market affects both last-mile delivery and private passenger traffic. Failed home deliveries are an important factor. They produce additional traffic by both ”Courier, Express and Parcel” (CEP) service providers and private passengers in the form of repeated delivery attempts or trips to pick up parcels. In this paper we apply an integrated agent-based model of last-mile deliveries and private travel demand. This allows for analysis of interactions between delivery and private passenger traffic and the status of the recipients during delivery. Furthermore, we present a neighbourship model to account for deliveries accepted by neighbours, which is crucial to reproduce realistic delivery success rates. We applied the presented model to the city of Karlsruhe, Germany, and simulated multiple delivery policy scenarios, which we compare to a static model without interactions between private and delivery agents. Our results show that the agent-based model produces more nuanced success rates with respect to different socio-demographic groups. Differentiating these groups is necessary when assessing measures that target specific groups and analysing effects of demographic changes. Also, we show the necessity of considering neighbours in such a model. This paper provides insight into the effects of e-commerce on a transport system and a framework to analyse policy measures or alternative delivery strategies.

DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS AND TAX BURDEN IN THE IRANIAN ECONOMY: A MACROSIMULATION APPROACH

Using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, this paper addresses the effects of demographic changes on tax dynamics. In fact, the DSGE framework involves main demographic features such as working and retirement periods as well as life cycle characteristics on one hand and other special conditions of Iran’s economy such as rigidities in nominal variables, distinct trait of government budget and lack of monetary and fiscal standard rules on the other. After calibration of parameters and determination of steady state values of the variables, we identified some demographic scenarios, such as reduction in the labor growth rate, increasing retirement age and improvement life expectancy and then assessed macro variables, particularly tax share, reaction to these shocks. Our results highlight that, demographic negative shocks have a significant effect on the budget deficit. A plummet (surge) in labor growth rate would increase (shrink) tax share to rebalance (smooth) a probable budget deficit(surplus). An analogous result can be attributed to the life expectancy improvement. However, any upswing (slump) in the retirement age has negative(positive) influence on the tax share. In other words, all positive demographic shocks provide opportunity to smooth tax policies and postpone revenue collection.

Urbanisation and energy consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest access to modern energy and highest urbanisation and population growth rates in the world. The increasing population and its move towards urban areas are expected to exert pressure on existing energy infrastructures and government budgets, introducing uncertainty in the path that future resource consumption might take. Research on the effects of demographic changes on energy use in Sub-Saharan Africa is scarce, with a few studies that only look at this issue tangentially. This research investigates the effect of urbanisation on total energy consumption and electricity consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study estimates this effect using panel data for 49 Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1980–2014. The size and significance of the urbanisation variable, measured as the total number of people living in urban areas, is estimated for total energy consumption, total electricity consumption and electricity consumption per capita. To isolate the effect of the urbanisation variable, the analysis controls for several demographic and socio-economic variables. Recognising the political aspects of energy infrastructures and investment, the analysis control for governance, a novel addition in these types of studies. There are two main findings: urbanisation has a positive and significant effect on total energy consumption, the size and significance of this effect varies across country income groups; urbanisation has a negative effect on total electricity consumption and electricity consumption per capita, the size and significance of which varies across country income groups.

MAKE YOURSELVES SCARCE: THE EFFECT OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ON THE RELATIVE WAGES AND EMPLOYMENT RATES OF EXPERIENCED WORKERS

AbstractThis article studies the impact of demographic change on experienced workers' relative wages and employment rates. We investigate empirical predictions from a framework of supply and demand for experience skill, using variation across U.S. local labor markets (LLMs) over the last decades and instrumenting experience skill supply by the LLMs' age structures a decade earlier. We find that aging substantially reduces experienced workers' relative wages and full‐time employment rates, and also their labor market participation rates. Our results imply that the effect of demographic change on labor markets might be more severe than previously recognized, as it reaches beyond wages.

A simulation approach to evaluate the effect of demographic changes on projected number of patients across disease categories

The world’s changing demographic trends inevitably lead to new challenges in the delivery of healthcare services. As the population ages, the consequent demand for various types of medical treatments changes as well, but the process is not uniform, neither for particular age–gender cohorts nor for different diagnoses’ groups. A discrete event simulation (DES) model was built to forecast future healthcare demand based on population projections for one Polish administrative region. Population forecasts, formulated based on simulation experiments carried out in previous studies, were inputted into the DES model, together with patient data taken from the regional health fund. A simulation was run up to 2030 to predict future number of older patients across different diagnosis categories. The results show that a change in the demographic structure and in particular, in the population’s ageing, will lead to significant shifts in the distribution of health needs for hospital treatment.

Effect of Demographic Changes on the Labour Supply in Lithuania and Poland

Demographic changes are one of the variables impacting labour supply. When viewing the situation on labour markets, not only quantitative changes in the total population size are significant, but also changes in the population categorised by economic age groups. International research indicates that the population size is decreasing. These processes translate into labour markets experiencing deficiencies in labour force. To counteract and minimise these undesirable conditions, continuous monitoring and diagnosis of the status of labour resources is required. This paper aims to evaluate the impact of demographic changes in labour supply based on the example of the Lithuanian and Polish labour markets and to redefine the groups of people forming unused labour resources. To this end, both secondary and primary data were used. The former were derived from statistical reports originating from the analysed countries, while the latter were obtained from the author’s own studies carried out among 200 respondents classified as unused labour resources. The research found that in the labour markets of both studied countries, very significant changes have occurred and will continue to occur, which may lead to the reduction in the productive-age population and to the increase in the post-productive-age population. The research has been carried out based on the systematic literature review methodology, which included theoretical and empirical research publications from 2000-2019, a diagnostic survey conducted among people classified as unused labour resources, as well as methods of descriptive statistics and induction. The literature review has demonstrated a shortage of studies on the subject of research, which makes the content of the paper a partial answer to the existing knowledge gap.

Trends of stroke attributable to high sodium intake at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2019: a population-based study

ABSTRACT Objectives: High sodium intake is associated with a higher risk of stroke. However, global patterns and trends in the stroke burden attributable to high sodium intake have not been systematically assessed. Methods: We used the numbers and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) of the stroke burden attributable to high sodium intake by sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and country, obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We calculated the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) to assess the trends of ASMR and ASDR of the disease burden attributable to high sodium intake between 1990 and 2019. We further calculated the contribution of changes in population growth, population aging, and mortality or DALYs to changes in total stroke deaths and DALYs. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the global burden of stroke attributable to high sodium intake changed significantly, from a universal burden in Asia and Europe to one that mainly affected some countries in Asia and Oceania. This change was due to the combined effects of demographic changes and changes in mortality or DALY rates. For countries in Asia and Oceania, the effects of population aging and population growth outweighed the effects of declining mortality and DALY rates, resulting in an absolute increase in strokes attributable to high sodium intake. Conclusion: Although the age-standardized global stroke burden attributable to high sodium intake has declined from 1990 to 2019, the burdens in some Asia and Oceania countries, particularly China, remain high.

인구 고령화가 가계 자산 구성에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

인구 고령화가 가계 자산 구성에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

The main factors behind Cameroon’s CO2 emissions before, during and after the economic crisis of the 1980s

An extended Kaya identity and the Logarithm Mean Divisia Index approach were applied in this paper to identify, quantify and explain the main factors behind Cameroon’s CO2 emissions before, during and after the economic crisis of the years 1980. The analyses covered the period from 1971 to 2014 and the results showed that: (1) Cameroon’s carbon intensity increased by 75 and 47% during the periods before (1971–1984) and after (1984–1994) the economic crisis, while it decreased significantly by − 135% during the crisis period (1994–2014). At the same time, the country’s emission factor increased by 30% between 2007 and 2014. (2) The effect of the demographic change was the main driver of Cameroon’s CO2 emissions during the periods 1984–1994 and 1994–2014, whereas the effect of economic activity was the main driver of the increase in these emissions between 1971 and 1984. (3) The energy intensity effect contributed to the increase in CO2 emissions during the period 1984–1994 in the same way as the effect of demographic change. However, this factor helped reduce CO2 emissions in the other two periods. (4) Although the effect of substitution of fossil fuels and the effect of renewable energy all contributed to reducing CO2 emissions during the period of this study, we found that the effect of renewable energy behind CO2 emissions remains insignificant compared to the renewable energy potential available in Cameroon. Finally, policy recommendations aimed at enabling Cameroon to achieve its objectives of reducing CO2 emissions were formulated in this article.

Macroeconomic implications of population aging: Evidence from Japan

Population aging is an important feature of Japan’s economy, which since 2006 has become a super-aged society. Changes in the age distribution of the population have important macroeconomic implications. Using annual data for 1960–2015, this study tests whether population age shares have long run influences on domestic saving, domestic investment, real GDP, inflation, the fiscal balance, and the current account balance. Cointegration is found between each macroeconomic variable and the demographic variables, which is a key finding of the analysis. The main empirical findings from the long-run cointegrating equations are that the effects of demographic change on the macroeconomic variables are statistically significant and quite strong. Alternative variants of the United Nation’s population projections provide further evidence of the importance of the demographic changes for Japan’s macroeconomic future. This study finds that future trends of key macroeconomic variables are not monotonic, but rather that long swings in the demographic factors produce a mixture of moderate growth periods and episodes of GDP stagnation.