Effects Of Changes In Circulation Research Articles

Western and Central Tropical Pacific Rainfall Response to Climate Change: Sensitivity to Projected Sea Surface Temperature Patterns

Abstract Rainfall projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models are strongly tied to projected sea surface temperature (SST) spatial patterns through the “warmer-gets-wetter” mechanism. While these models consistently project an enhanced equatorial warming, they, however, indicate much more uncertain changes in zonal SST gradients. That translates into large uncertainties on rainfall projections. Here, we force an atmospheric model with synthetic SSTs whose zonal SST gradient changes span the range of CMIP5 uncertainties in the presence and in the absence of the robust equatorially enhanced warming. Our results confirm that projected rainfall changes are dominated by the effect of circulation changes, which are tied to SST through the “warmer-gets-wetter” mechanism. We show that SPCZ rainfall changes are entirely driven by the uncertain zonal SST gradient changes. The western equatorial Pacific rainfall increase is largely controlled by the robust enhanced equatorial warming for modest zonal SST gradient changes. However, for larger values, the effect of the zonal SST gradient change on rainfall projections becomes dominant due to nonlinear interactions with the enhanced equatorial warming. Overall, our study demonstrates that uncertainties in the zonal SST gradient changes strongly contribute to uncertainties in rainfall projections over both the South Pacific convergence zone and western equatorial Pacific. It is thus critical to reduce these uncertainties to produce more robust precipitation estimates.

Quantifying the role of the large-scale circulation on European summer precipitation change

Regional climate projections indicate that European summer precipitation may change considerably in the future. Southern Europe can expect substantial drying while Northern Europe could actually become wetter. Model spread and internal variability in these projections are large, however, and unravelling the processes that underlie the changes is essential to get more confidence in these projections. Large-scale circulation change is one of the contributors to model spread. In this paper we quantify the role of future large-scale circulation changes to summer precipitation change, using a 16-member single-model ensemble obtained with the regional climate model RACMO2, forced by the global climate model EC-Earth2.3 and the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Using the method of circulation analogues three contributions to the future precipitation change are distinguished. The first is the precipitation change occurring without circulation change (referred to as the thermodynamic term). This contribution is characterised by a marked drying-to-wetting gradient as one moves north from the Mediterranean. The second contribution measures the effects of changes in the mean circulation. It has a very different spatial pattern and is closely related to the development of a region of high pressure (attaining its maximum west of Ireland) and the associated anti-cyclonic circulation response. For a large area east of Ireland including parts of western Europe, it is the major contributor to the overall drying signal, locally explaining more than 90% of the ensemble-mean change. In regions where the patterns overlap, the signal-to-noise ratio of the total change is either enhanced or reduced depending on their relative signs. Although the second term is expected to be particularly model dependent, the high-pressure region west of Ireland also appears in CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble-mean projections. The third contribution records the effects of changes in the circulation variability. This term has the smallest net contribution, but a relatively large uncertainty. The analogues are very good in partitioning the ensemble-mean precipitation change, but describe only up to 40% of the ensemble-spread. This demonstrates that other precipitation-drivers (SST, spring soil moisture etc.) will generally strongly influence trends in single climate realisations. This also re-emphasises the need for large ensembles or using alternative methods like the Pseudo Global Warming approach where signal to noise ratios are higher. Nevertheless, identifying the change mechanisms helps to understand the future uncertainties and differences between models.

Attribution of late summer early autumn Arctic sea ice decline in recent decades

The underlying mechanisms for Arctic sea ice decline can be categories as those directly related to changes in atmospheric circulations (often referred to as dynamic mechanisms) and the rest (broadly characterized as thermodynamic processes). An attribution analysis based on the self-organizing maps (SOM) method is performed to determine the relative contributions from these two types of mechanisms to the Arctic sea ice decline in August–October during 1979–2016. The daily atmospheric circulations represented by daily 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies are classified into 12 SOM patterns, which portray the spatial structures of the Arctic Oscillation and Arctic Dipole, and their transitions. Due to the counterbalance between the opposite trends among the circulation patterns, the net effect of circulation changes is small, explaining only 1.6% of the declining trend in the number of August–October sea ice days in the Arctic during 1979–2016. The majority of the trend (95.8%) is accounted for by changes in thermodynamic processes not directly related to changes in circulations, whereas for the remaining trend (2.6%) the contributions of circulation and non-circulation changes cannot be distinguished. The sea ice decline is closely associated with surface air temperature increase, which is related to increasing trends in atmospheric water vapor content, downward longwave radiation, and sea surface temperatures over the open ocean, as well as to decreasing trends in surface albedo. An analogous SOM analysis extending seasonal coverage to spring (April–October) for the same period supports the dominating role of thermodynamic forcing in decadal-scale Arctic sea ice loss.

Effect of atmospheric circulation on surface air temperature trends in years 1979\u20132018

The effect of atmospheric circulation on monthly, seasonal and annual mean surface air temperature trends in the years 1979–2018 is studied by applying a trajectory-based method on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA5 reanalysis data. To the extent that the method captures the effects of atmospheric circulation, the results suggest that circulation trends only had a minor impact on observed annual mean temperature trends in most areas. Exceptions include, for example, a decrease in annual mean warming by about 1 °C in western Siberia, and increased warming in central Europe and the Arctic Ocean. However, the effect of circulation trends on seasonal and particularly monthly temperature trends is more substantial. Subtracting the effect of circulation changes from the ERA5 temperature trends leaves residual trends with a smoother annual cycle than the original trends. The residual monthly mean temperature trends also tend to agree better with the multi-model mean temperature trends from models in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) than the original ERA5 trends do, with a 42% decrease in the mean square difference over the global land area. However, the corresponding decrease in the mean square difference of the annual mean temperature trends is only 6%.

Strengthened currents override the effect of warming on lobster larval dispersal and survival.

Human-induced climate change is projected to increase ocean temperature and modify circulation patterns, with potential widespread implications for the transport and survival of planktonic larvae of marine organisms. Circulation affects the dispersal of larvae, whereas temperature impacts larval development and survival. However, the combined effect of changes in circulation and temperature on larval dispersal and survival has rarely been studied in a future climate scenario. Such understanding is crucial to predict future species distributions, anticipate ecosystem shifts and design effective management strategies. We simulate contemporary (1990s) and future (2060s) dispersal of lobster larvae using an eddy-resolving ocean model in south-eastern Australia, a region of rapid ocean warming. Here we show that the effects of changes in circulation and temperature can counter each other: ocean warming favours the survival of lobster larvae, whereas a strengthened western boundary current diminishes the supply of larvae to the coast by restricting cross-current larval dispersal. Furthermore, we find that changes in circulation have a stronger effect on connectivity patterns of lobster larvae along south-eastern Australia than ocean warming in the future climate so that the supply of larvae to the coast reduces by ~4% and the settlement peak shifts poleward by ~270km in the model simulation. Thus, ocean circulation may be one of the dominant factors contributing to climate-induced changes of species ranges.

Changes of atmospheric circulation in central Europe and their influence on climatic trends in the Czech Republic

This work deals with the influence of changes of atmospheric circulation on observed trends of 11 climatic elements at 21 stations in the Czech Republic in the period 1961–1998. Atmospheric circulation in central Europe is described by the German (Hess-Brezowsky) and Czech-Slovak (Bradka’s) subjective catalogues of synoptic types. In the study period there is a strong downward trend in the occurrence of anticyclonic types in Bradka’s catalogue in all seasons, this trend being most prominent in autumn. Westerly and northwesterly types become more frequent in autumn and winter, less frequent in spring and summer under both classifications. In the Hess-Brezowsky catalogue, the occurrence of anticyclonic types increases in winter, spring, and summer. To assess the effect of circulation changes on observed climate trends we have used the method of “hypothetical” seasonal trends that are calculated from a daily series, constructed by assigning the long-term monthly average of the given climatic element under a specific circulation type to each day classified with this type. The ratio of these circulation-conditioned trends and observed seasonal trends shows that changes in atmospheric circulation are the primary cause of massive winter warming and autumn cooling, which is connected with increasing precipitation and humidity. Summer climate trends are unrelated to changes in atmospheric circulation. Simultaneous use of more circulation classifications for the detection of climatic changes is highly recommended, as the long-term circulation trends depend on the catalogue applied.

Lead Isotopic Records of Palaeoceanographic Change in the NW Atlantic Obtained from Fe-Mn Crusts

The residence time of Pb in the oceans is considered to be shorter than the mixing time of the oceans. Various geographically dispersed sources of Pb (e.g. old continental crust, young volcanic terranes) contribute Pb with a wide range of isotopic compositions to the oceans. Therefore, unlike Sr which has a long residence time, there are Pb isotopic differences between the oceans (e.g. yon Blanckenburg et al., 1996). The Pb isotopic record of a Fe-Mn crust from a particular locality and oceandepth should be sensitive both to changes in the Pb inputs to the oceans as well as changes in ocean basin-scale circulation and inter-ocean exchange (Abouchami et al. 1997; Ling et al. 1997; Burton et al. 1997; Christensen et al. 1997). The challenge is to establish the relative effects of changes in circulation and Pb inputs in the Pb isotopic records. Progress can be made by the comparison of Pb isotopic records of crusts from different localities. For example, a comparison of the Pb isotopic records of two Central Pacific crusts separated by 3000 kma, suggests that aspects of those records may reflect changes in the intensity of circulation in the Pacific (Christensen et al. 1997). In an Fe-Mn crust from the NW Atlantic, Burton et al. (1997) measured Pb and Nd isotopic records which indicated a significant shift towards more radiogenic Pb and less radiogenic Nd isotopic compositions at around 4 Ma. This was interpreted to be related to strengthening of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) at that time. Here we present high resolution Pb isotopic data for three Fe-Mn crusts from the NW Atlantic, including the crust analysed by Burton et al. (1997), which provide a profile of the history of deep water structure for the past 5 Ma.