Eddy-resolving Ocean Model Research Articles

Formation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation lower limb is critically dependent on Atlantic-Arctic mixing

Deep-water formation in the eastern Subpolar North Atlantic Ocean (eSPNA) and Nordic Seas is crucial for maintaining the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), of consequence for global climate. However, it is still uncertain which processes determine the deep-water formation and how much Atlantic and Arctic waters respectively contribute to the lower limb. To address this, here we used Lagrangian trajectories to diagnose a global eddy-resolving ocean model that agrees well with recent observations highlighting the eSPNA as a primary source of the AMOC lower limb. Comprised of 72% Atlantic waters and 28% Arctic waters, the density and depth of the AMOC lower limb is critically dependent on Atlantic-Arctic mixing, primarily in the vicinity of Denmark Strait. In contrast, Atlantic waters gaining density through air-sea interaction along the eastern periphery of Nordic Seas and not entering the Arctic Ocean make a negligible contribution to the lower limb.

Deep-sea mining rock-fragment dispersal scenarios associated with submesoscale forcings: A case study in the Atlantic

In the last few years, the exploitation of deep-sea regions for minerals extraction raised international attention as an economically viable source for the mining industry. However, most of these minerals are found close to sensitive ecosystems that can be harmed by mining activities. Given the potential impact, there is a need for the establishment of best practices towards the adoption of preventive strategies for the sustainable management and exploitation of deep-sea environments. To accomplish this objective, numerical models have proven to be reliable tools to support decision-making. In the present study, a high-resolution eddy-resolving ocean numerical model was configured and integrated with a semi-Lagrangian model aiming to map the transport of rock-fragments associated with mining activities. The model was applied to an area rich in polymetallic sulphides at the Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (NMAR). Model results showed that local topography and circulation dynamics played an important role for the dispersion and settling of the rock-fragments. In the presence of local submesoscale processes, the residence time do not follow the neutral relation H/vs. It was demonstrated that, depending on the local hydrodynamics, rock-fragments released at sub-surface depth can impact wider areas, with a predicted impact on pelagic and benthic organisms.

Evaluating westward and eastward propagating mesoscale eddies using a 1/10° global ocean simulation of CAS-LICOM3

This research evaluates the performance of CAS-LICOM3 (Chinese Academy of Science, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics/Institute of Atmospheric Physics (LASG/IAP) Climate system Ocean Model, version 3) in simulating global coherent mesoscale eddies by comparison to satellite altimeter observations. The simulations of westward and eastward propagating eddies (WPEs and EPEs) and cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies (CEs and AEs) are separately analyzed. The results demonstrate that the simulated spatial-temporal variabilities in global mesoscale eddies agree roughly with the satellite observations. CAS-LICOM3 also reproduces the distinctive features between WPEs and EPEs or between CEs and AEs. However, some systematic biases are found. Globally, CAS-LICOM3 simulates a less frequent and weaker mesoscale eddy field than is observed. WPEs contribute more to these global biases than do EPEs. EPEs are relatively better reproduced than WPEs, exhibiting smaller underestimations and even overestimations in the energetic western boundary current and Antarctic circumpolar current regions. The simulation results for CEs resemble those of AEs, but AEs are comparatively less biased than CEs. These findings provide a basis for improving low-resolution and eddy-resolving ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) and developing submesoscale-resolving OGCMs.

Seasonal Variability of Eddy Kinetic Energy along the Kuroshio Current

Abstract The seasonal variability of the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) along the Kuroshio Current (KC) is examined using outputs from an eddy-resolving (1/10°) ocean model. Using a theoretical framework for climatological monthly mean EKE, the mechanisms governing the seasonal cycle of upper-ocean EKE are investigated. East of Taiwan, the EKE shows two comparable peaks in spring and summer in the surface layer; only the spring one is evident in the subsurface layer. The seasonality is determined by mixed barotropic (BTI) and baroclinic (BCI) instabilities. Northeast of Taiwan, the EKE is also elevated during spring–summer but with a sole peak in summer, which is dominated by the meridional EKE advection by the KC. In the middle part of the KC in the East China Sea, the mesoscale (>150 km) EKE (EKEMS) is relatively strong during spring–summer, whereas the submesoscale (50–150 km) EKE (EKESM) is significantly enhanced during winter–spring. The seasonal cycles of EKEMS and EKESM are primarily controlled by the external forcing and BCI, respectively. In particular, the higher EKEMS level in summer is mainly due to the increased wind work. West of the Tokara Strait, the EKE exhibits a prominent peak in winter and has its minimum in summer, which is regulated by the BCI. As the submesoscale signals are partially resolved by the model, further studies with higher-resolution simulations and observations are needed for a better understanding of the EKESM seasonality and its contribution to the seasonally modulating EKEMS along the KC.

The intrinsic variability of the Indonesian Throughflow

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) carries an annual average of about 15 Sv of water from the Pacific through the Indonesian Seas Into the Indian Ocean, and its year-to-year variation ranges from 1 to 4 Sv. A 10-member ensemble of 41-year integrations of a semi-global eddy-resolving oceanic general circulation model is examined to explore the intrinsic (chaotic) variability of the ITF transport and associated flow. It is found that the annual-mean ITF transport is different by about 1 Sv between the ensemble members at several years. The characteristic vertical and horizontal structures of the ensemble anomaly (deviation from the ensemble average) are described. These structures and the basin-scale spread of the anomaly suggest that the intrinsic variability of the ITF is a genuine increase or decrease of the classical ITF rather than variability due to local eddies or nonlinear currents within the Indonesian Seas. The lagged correlation of the intrinsic component of the ITF transport with sea-surface height and barotropic streamfunction suggests that the intrinsic variability may come from zonal jets in the western subtropical North Pacific.

Oceanic mesoscale eddies as crucial drivers of global marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are prolonged extreme warm water events in the ocean, exerting devastating impacts on marine ecosystems. A comprehensive knowledge of physical processes controlling MHW life cycles is pivotal to improve MHW forecast capacity, yet it is still lacking. Here, we use a historical simulation from a global eddy-resolving climate model with improved representation of MHWs, and show that heat flux convergence by oceanic mesoscale eddies acts as a dominant driver of MHW life cycles over most parts of the global ocean. In particular, the mesoscale eddies make an important contribution to growth and decay of MHWs, whose characteristic spatial scale is comparable or even larger than that of mesoscale eddies. The effect of mesoscale eddies is spatially heterogeneous, becoming more dominant in the western boundary currents and their extensions, the Southern Ocean, as well as the eastern boundary upwelling systems. This study reveals the crucial role of mesoscale eddies in controlling the global MHW life cycles and highlights that using eddy-resolving ocean models is essential, albeit not necessarily fully sufficient, for accurate MHW forecasts.

Zonal jets in the Southern Ocean: A semi-analytical model based on scale separation

A reduced-order semi-analytic model of multiple zonal jets in the Southern Ocean is proposed based on the statistical approach and scale decomposition. By introducing two dominant scales in the vorticity equation, the model describes the large-scale and mesoscale dynamics using the explicit momentum dissipation in the horizontal and vertical directions. For validation and physical insights, the results of the reduced-order model are compared with solutions of two eddy-resolving ocean models: (i) a realistic primitive-equation HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) simulation of the Southern Ocean and (ii) an idealized quasi-geostrophic model of a shear-driven channel flow.

Ocean Model Response to Stochastically Perturbed Momentum Fluxes

Abstract Recent studies of various stochastic forcing and subgrid-scale parameterization schemes applied to climate and atmospheric models have revealed a diversity of model responses. These responses include degeneracy in the response to different forcings and compensating model errors. While stochastic parameterization of the ocean eddies is an active area, this has mainly involved idealized models with fewer studies employing ocean general circulation models. Here we examine the sensitivity of a low-resolution climate model to stochastic forcing of the momentum fluxes restricted to regions of the three-dimensional ocean where an eddy-resolving ocean model configuration has high variability. We consider the changes in the modeled energetics of low-resolution simulations in response to increased stochastic forcing. We find that as forcing amplitudes are increased there is enhanced conversion of transient to seasonal potential energy. Additionally, there is a systematic redistribution from seasonal to small-scale transient kinetic energy. Our approach has zero mean noise such that the total kinetic energy spectra remain largely unchanged even as small-scale eddy kinetic energy is increased in the targeted regions. However, we also show that strong stochastic forcing, particularly when applied in the tropics, can induce substantial changes to the ocean steady state that are undesirable. These changes include overly strong vertical mixing leading to unrealistic increases in ocean heat content and latitudinally dependent changes to sea level. We show that judicious selection of the magnitude and spatial extent of the stochastic forcing is required for desirable results. Our results point to the importance of a comprehensive evaluation of ocean model responses to stochastic parameterizations.

Tropical instability waves in a high-resolution oceanic and coupled GCM

Tropical instability waves (TIWs) are the dominant mesoscale variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. TIWs have direct impacts on the local hydrology, biochemistry and atmospheric boundary layer, and feedback on ocean circulations and climate variability. In this study, the basic characteristics of Pacific Ocean TIWs simulated by an eddy-resolving ocean model and a coupled general circulation model are evaluated. The simulated TIW biases mainly result from the mean climatology state, as TIWs extract eddy energy from the mean potential and kinetic energy. Both the oceanic and coupled models reproduce the observed westward propagating large-scale Rossby waves between approximately 2°–8°N, but the simulated TIWs have shorter wavelengths than the observed waves due to the shallower thermocline. Meanwhile, the weak meridional shears of background zonal currents and the less-tilted pycnocline in these two models compared to the observations causes weak barotropic and baroclinic instability, which decreases the intensity of the simulated TIWs. We then contrast the TIWs from these two models and identify the roles of atmospheric feedback in modulating TIWs. The latent heat flux feedback is similar to observation in the coupled model but absent in the ocean model, contributing to the stronger standard deviation (STD) of the TIW SST in the ocean model. The ocean model is not able to capture realistic air–sea interaction processes when forced with prescribed atmospheric forcing. However, the misrepresented atmospheric feedback in the ocean model tends to decrease the sea surface height (SSH) variability, and the current feedback damping effect is stronger in the ocean model than in the coupled model. Combined with weaker barotropic conversion rate and baroclinic conversion rate in the ocean model than in the coupled model, the STD of the TIW SSH in the ocean model is weaker.

Decadal variability of eddy temperature fluxes in the Labrador Sea

Small-scale eddies play an important role in preconditioning and restratifying the water column before and after mixing events, thereby affecting deep water formation variability. Results from a realistic eddy-resolving (∼5 km local horizontal resolution) ocean model suggest that small-scale temperature fluxes due to turbulent potential to kinetic energy conversion are the main driver of mixed layer restratification during deep convection in the Labrador Sea interior and the West Greenland Current. This resupply of heat due to turbulent upward buoyancy fluxes exhibits a large interannual variability imposed by the atmospheric forcing. Eddy fluxes only become active in periods of strong buoyancy loss, while being quiescent otherwise. In a low-resolution (∼20 km) control simulation the modeled turbulence is strongly reduced and the associated modeled and parameterized heat fluxes are too weak to increase stratification.

Long-term mean circulation in the Japan Sea as reproduced by multiple eddy-resolving ocean circulation models

The capacity of four eddy-resolving ocean circulation models—HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model), MRI.COM (Meteorological Research Institute Community Ocean Model), OFES (Ocean General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator), and NEMO (Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean)—to simulate the long-term mean hydrographic conditions and circulation patterns in the Japan Sea is investigated in this study. The assessment of this study includes the evaluation of mean vertical profiles and time series of temperature and salinity at the representative monitoring stations. Different model products from 1993 to 2015 are compared with in situ measurements provided by historical cruises and monitoring stations. After that, we compared the observed and simulated surface current velocities over the basin and volume transports through the key straits in the Japan Sea. Simulated current velocities are validated against 15 years of Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) measurements near the longshore and offshore branches of the East Korea Warm Current (EKWC). Furthermore, the atmospheric forcing data of the four ocean circulation models are validated against the satellite wind product. We found that the vertical profiles and long-term variations of temperature and salinity reproduced by MRI.COM and HYCOM are closer to in situ measurements. All models simulate temperature well in upper ocean, but salinity simulations are of lower quality from OFES and NEMO at several stations. Simulated current velocities predominantly lie within the standard deviation of ADCP measurements at two locations. However, the sea surface currents are underestimated by four models compared with Drifter data. Although simulated hydrographic profiles agree well with in situ observations, the mean circulation patterns greatly differ between the models, which highlight the need for additional evaluation and corrections based on the long-term current measurements. Because of the lack of ocean current measurements, only the baroclinic velocities simulated by each model are reliable. The substantial part of the differences in barotropic velocities among the simulate result of four models is explained by the differing wind velocities from the corresponding atmospheric forcing datasets.

Weakening and warming of the European Slope Current since the late 1990s attributed to basin-scale density changes

Abstract. Oceanic influences on shelf seas are mediated by flow along and across continental slopes, with consequences for regional hydrography and ecosystems. Here we present evidence for the variable North Atlantic influence on European shelf seas over the last 4 decades using ocean analysis and reanalysis products, as well as an eddy-resolving ocean model hindcast. To first order, flows oriented along isobaths at the continental slope are related to the poleward increase in density in the adjacent deep ocean that supports a geostrophic inflow towards the slope. In the North Atlantic, this density gradient and associated inflow have undergone substantial, sometimes abrupt, changes in recent decades. Inflow in the range 10–15 Sv is identified with eastward transport in temperature classes at 30∘ W in the latitude range 45–60∘ N. Associated with major subpolar warming around 1997, a cool and fresh branch of the Atlantic inflow was substantially reduced, while a warm and more saline inflow branch strengthened, with respective changes of the order of 5 Sv. Total inflow fell from ∼ 15 Sv pre-1997 to ∼ 10 Sv post-1997. In the model hindcast, particle tracking is used to trace the origins of poleward flows along the continental slope to the west of Ireland and Scotland before and after 1997. Backtracking particles up to 4 years, a range of subtropical and subpolar pathways is identified from a statistical perspective. In broad terms, cold, fresh waters of subpolar provenance were replaced by warm, saline waters of subtropical provenance. These changes have major implications for the downstream shelf regions that are strongly influenced by Atlantic inflow, in particular the northern North Sea, where “subtropicalization” of ecosystems has already been observed since the late 1990s.

Western boundary currents drive sun-coral (Tubastraea spp.) coastal invasion from oil platforms

Most marine species have a planktonic larval phase that benefit from the surface oceanic flow to enhance their dispersion potential. For invasive species, the interaction of environmentally resistant larvae with different flow regimes and artificial substrates can lead to complex larval dispersion patterns and boost geographic expansion. In the Southwest Atlantic, the invasive corals Tubastraea spp. (sun-coral) have been recorded biofouling on oil platforms since the late 1980s. These platforms are considered important vectors for the established populations throughout the Brazilian coast. However, we still do not know how the position of these structures relative to regional flow contribute to the natural dispersion potential of these invaders on a regional scale. Herein, we used an eddy-resolving ocean model (ROMS) and an Individual Based Model (IBM-Ichthyop) to simulate the natural dispersion patterns of sun-coral larvae from all oil platforms on Brazilian oil-producing basins, for the austral summer and winter along 6 years (2010–2015) in 90-day simulations. We found that mortality rates by advection were significantly higher during the winter (p = 0.001) and when sources of larvae were compared throughout this season (p = 1.9 × 10–17). The influence of two western boundary currents and persistent eddy activity contribute to the dispersal of larvae to distances up to 7000 km. The effectiveness of each oil-producing basin as vectors for the entire Brazilian coastline, measured as the percentage of larval supply, highlights the importance of the northern Ceará (59.89%) and Potiguar (87.47%) basins and the more central Camamu (44.11%) and Sergipe-Alagoas (39.20%) basins. The poleward shift of the Southern branch of the South Equatorial Current during the winter causes larvae released from the Sergipe-Alagoas and Camamu basins to enter the North Brazil Current, expanding their dispersion towards the north. The Brazil Current disperses larvae southwards, but strong mesoscale activity prevents their dispersion to the coast, especially for those released from the oil platforms on Campos and Santos basins. Within this complex hydrodynamic setting, a few source areas, like those in the Sergipe-Alagoas and Camamu basins, can potentially contribute to the spread of larvae along nearly all the Brazilian coast. Therefore, oil platforms act as possible chronic sources of sun-coral propagules to the coast, emphasizing the urgency for a more detailed set of actions to control and monitor these invasive exotic species.

Upper-Ocean Processes Controlling the Near-Surface Temperature in the Western Gulf of Mexico from a Multidecadal Numerical Simulation

The upper-ocean processes controlling the near-surface layer temperature in the western Gulf of Mexico (GOM) are examined by estimating the contributing terms in the heat equation based on a 54-year simulation of an eddy-resolving HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). An eddy-active region defined by large surface eddy kinetic energy, representing the Loop Current eddies (LCEs) primary trajectory region, is selected for analysis. Both observations and the simulation reveal that the mean net surface heat flux cools the northern GOM and warms the southern GOM. Mean horizontal heat advection contributes to an overall cooling in the eddy-active region. Mean vertical heat advection has a strong seasonal variability associated with the strong seasonal cycle of the mixed layer process: winters tend to have a strong downward heat advection in the eddy-active region and a strong upward heat advection in the rest of the western GOM, while summers tend to have a weak advective heat flux. The downwelling (upwelling) is primarily due to the dominant anticyclonic (cyclonic) wind stress curl. Mean eddy heat flux convergence contributes to the overall warming in the upper ocean of the western GOM. Diffusive flux is not small across the thermocline, and it is expected to have an insignificant influence on the near-surface temperature.

A Seasonal Undercurrent Along the Northwest Coast of Australia

In the North West Shelf region of Australia is a surface current (Holloway Current), which flows southwestward along the shelf break. This paper describes a seasonal undercurrent below the Holloway Current. A 5-day climatology is constructed from the output of an eddy-resolving oceanic general circulation model (OGCM). A seasonal northeastward-flowing undercurrent is found on the upper continental slope during the climatological April–May. This undercurrent reverses during February–March. During its annual cycle, the phase of the undercurrent tends to propagate southwestward and upward. The annual frequency dominates, but the positive and negative phases of the undercurrent are not symmetric in the yearly cycle because of the contributions from the semi-annual and 1/3-annual components. We propose a hypothesis that this undercurrent is a beam of coastal trapped wave (CTW). As an initial attempt to assess the plausibility of this hypothesis, we construct an idealized linear coastal-trapped wave (CTW) solution driven by an idealized harmonic meridional winds at the annual frequency. The solution takes the form of a beam originating from the forcing region on the continental shelf and propagating offshore and southward. When it emerges on to the continental slope, it takes the form of an undercurrent. This idealized solution shares several properties with the undercurrent in the OGCM despite several discrepancies.

Mesoscale Dynamics and Eddy Heat Transport in the Japan/East Sea from 1990 to 2010: A Model-Based Analysis

The driving mechanisms of mesoscale processes and associated heat transport in the Japan/East Sea (JES) from 1990 to 2010 were examined using eddy-resolving ocean model simulations. The simulated circulation showed correctly reproduced JES major basin-scale currents and mesoscale dynamics features. We show that mesoscale eddies can deepen isotherms/isohalines up to several hundred meters and transport warm and low salinity waters along the western and eastern JES boundaries. The analysis of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) showed that the mesoscale dynamics reaches a maximum intensity in the upper 300 m layer. Throughout the year, the EKE maximum is observed in the southeastern JES, and a pronounced seasonal variability is observed in the southwestern and northwestern JES. The comparison of the EKE budget components confirmed that various mechanisms can be responsible for the generation of mesoscale dynamics during the year. From winter to spring, the baroclinic instability of basin-scale currents is the leading mechanism of the JES mesoscale dynamics’ generation. In summer, the leading role in the generation of the mesoscale dynamics is played by the barotropic instability of basin-scale currents, which are responsible for the emergence of mesoscale eddies, and in autumn, the leading role is played by instabilities and the eddy wind work. We show that the meridional heat transport (MHT) is mainly polewards. Furthermore, we reveal two paths of eddy heat transport across the Subpolar Front: along the western and eastern (along 138∘ E) JES boundaries. Near the Tsugaru Strait, we describe the detected intensive westward eddy heat transport reaching its maximum in the first half of the year and decreasing to the minimum by summer.

Seasonal Predictions of Holopelagic Sargassum Across the Tropical Atlantic Accounting for Uncertainty in Drivers and Processes: The SARTRAC Ensemble Forecast System

The holopelagic macroalgae sargassum has proliferated across the tropical Atlantic since 2011, of consequence for coastal populations from West Africa to the Caribbean with limited early warning of major beaching events. As part of an interdisciplinary project, ‘Teleconnected SARgassum risks across the Atlantic: building capacity for TRansformational Adaptation in the Caribbean and West Africa’ (SARTRAC), an ensemble forecast system, SARTRAC-EFS, is providing seasonal predictions of sargassum drift. An eddy-resolving ocean model hindcast provides the winds and currents necessary to generate ensemble members. Ensemble forecasts are then obtained for different combinations of ‘windage’, the fractional influence of winds on sargassum mats, and in situ rates of growth, mortality, and sinking. Forecasts for north and south of Jamaica are evaluated with satellite-observed distributions, associated with beaching events in specific years of heavy inundation, 2015 and 2018-20. These seasonal forecasts are evaluated, on lead times of up to 180 days. Forecasts are subject to leading modes of tropical climate variability, in particular the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). More accurate forecasts for a given year are obtained with ensemble members from hindcast years with a similar spring AMM-index. This is most clearly evident during negative AMM phases in spring of 2015 and 2018, when positive sea surface temperature anomalies and anomalously weak trade winds were established across the northern tropics. On this evidence, SARTRAC-EFS is potentially useful in providing early warning of high sargassum prevalence. Extended to sargassum drift off West Africa, extensive cloud cover limits availability of the satellite data needed for full application and evaluation of SARTRAC-EFS in this region, although experimental forecasts off the coast of Ghana are found highly sensitive to the windage that is associated with strong onshore winds during boreal summer. Alongside other forecast systems, SARTRAC-EFS is providing useful early warnings of sargassum inundation at seasonal timescale.

Multiscale data assimilation in the Bluelink ocean reanalysis (BRAN)

Forecast errors of subsurface temperature and salinity are substantially reduced with an efficient, two-step, multiscale Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) system, applied to a near-global eddy-resolving ocean model. A critical element of any data assimilation system is the background error covariance, which for EnOI is typically a static ensemble of anomalies from a long model run. Here, we construct two ensembles — one based on intraseasonal anomalies from a free run of the same eddy-resolving ocean model used to underpin the forecasts, and a second ensemble of climatogical anomalies calculated using a relatively coarse, 1-degree global ocean model. For each assimilation cycle, the coarse-resolution ensemble is used to “correct” the broad-scales, and the high-resolution ensemble is used to “correct” the eddy-scales. Corrections from the coarse steps are more effective at reducing systematic errors in the subsurface ocean whereas the high-resolution steps typically produce vertically coherent corrections associated with mesoscale eddies. We compare two configurations of multiscale data assimilation with different localisation radii in the coarse data assimilation step. The best performance and slowest error growth was found with localisation that was large enough to encompass neighbouring profiles in each assimilation cycle. The efficacy of the approach is demonstrated in ocean reanalyses over 2017-8 that assimilate data every 3 days. We demonstrate clear improvements in the representation of temperature and salinity at all depths around Australia. Model-observation differences are particularly improved in and below the thermocline. The corrections to the ocean state with multiscale data assimilation follow water mass structures. The increased computational cost of this multiscale approach is modest (about double the analysis step), but the performance improvement is significant, making this approach suitable for research and operational applications.

Code for "Weakening and warming of the European Slope Current since the late 1990s attributed to basin-scale density changes"

Abstract. Oceanic influences on shelf seas are mediated by flow along and across continental slopes, with consequences for regional hydrography and ecosystems. Here we present evidence for the variable North Atlantic influence on European shelf seas over the last four decades, using ocean analysis and reanalysis products, and an eddy-resolving ocean model hindcast. To first order, flows oriented along isobaths at the continental slope are related to the poleward increase of density in the adjacent deep ocean that supports a geostrophic inflow towards the slope. In the North Atlantic, this density gradient and associated inflow has undergone substantial, sometimes abrupt, changes in recent decades. Inflow in the range 10–15 Sv is identified with eastward transport in temperature classes at 30° W, in the latitude range 45–60° N. Associated with major subpolar warming around 1997, a cool and fresh branch of the Atlantic inflow was substantially reduced, while a warm and more saline inflow branch strengthened, with respective changes of the order 5 Sv. Total inflow fell from ~ 15 Sv pre-1997 to ~ 10 Sv post-1997. In the model hindcast, particle tracking is used to trace the origins of poleward flows along the continental slope to the west of Ireland and Scotland, before and after 1997. Backtracking particles up to 4 years, a range of subtropical and subpolar pathways is identified from a statistical perspective. In broad terms, cold, fresh waters of subpolar provenance were replaced by warm, saline waters, of subtropical provenance. These changes have major implications for the downstream shelf regions that are strongly influenced by Atlantic inflow, the northern North Sea in particular, where “subtropicalization” of ecosystems has already been observed since the late 1990s.

Ensemble forecasting greatly expands the prediction horizon for ocean mesoscale variability

Mesoscale eddies dominate energetics of the ocean, modify mass, heat and freshwater transport and primary production in the upper ocean. However, the forecast skill horizon for ocean mesoscales in current operational models is shorter than 10 days: eddy-resolving ocean models, with horizontal resolution finer than 10 km in mid-latitudes, represent mesoscale dynamics, but mesoscale initial conditions are hard to constrain with available observations. Here we analyze a suite of ocean model simulations at high (1/25°) and lower (1/12.5°) resolution and compare with an ensemble of lower-resolution simulations. We show that the ensemble forecast significantly extends the predictability of the ocean mesoscales to between 20 and 40 days. We find that the lack of predictive skill in data assimilative deterministic ocean models is due to high uncertainty in the initial location and forecast of mesoscale features. Ensemble simulations account for this uncertainty and filter-out unconstrained scales. We suggest that advancements in ensemble analysis and forecasting should complement the current focus on high-resolution modeling of the ocean.