Eddy Mean Flow Interaction Research Articles

A Review on the Arctic–Midlatitudes Connection: Interactive Impacts, Physical Mechanisms, and Nonstationary

In light of the rapid Arctic warming and continuous reduction in Arctic Sea ice, the complex two-way Arctic–midlatitudes connection has become a focal point in recent climate research. In this paper, we review the current understanding of the interactive influence between midlatitude atmospheric variability and Arctic Sea ice or thermal conditions on interannual timescales. As sea ice diminishes, in contrast to the Arctic warming (cooling) in boreal winter (summer), Eurasia and North America have experienced anomalously cold (warm) conditions and record snowfall (rainfall), forming an opposite oscillation between the Arctic and midlatitudes. Both statistical analyses and modeling studies have demonstrated the significant impacts of autumn–winter Arctic variations on winter midlatitude cooling, cold surges, and snowfall, as well as the potential contributions of spring–summer Arctic variations to midlatitude warming, heatwaves and rainfall, particularly focusing on the role of distinct regional sea ice. The possible physical processes can be categorized into tropospheric and stratospheric pathways, with the former encompassing the swirling jet stream, horizontally propagated Rossby waves, and transient eddy–mean flow interaction, and the latter manifested as anomalous vertical propagation of quasi-stationary planetary waves and associated downward control of stratospheric anomalies. In turn, atmospheric prevailing patterns in the midlatitudes also contribute to Arctic Sea ice or thermal condition anomalies by meridional energy transport. The Arctic–midlatitudes connection fluctuates over time and is influenced by multiple factors (e.g., continuous melting of climatological sea ice, different locations and magnitudes of sea ice anomalies, internal variability, and other external forcings), undoubtedly increasing the difficulty of mechanism studies and the uncertainty surrounding predictions of midlatitude weather and climate. In conclusion, we provide a succinct summary and offer suggestions for future research.

Energetics of eddy-mean flow interactions in the western tropical Pacific Ocean

The eddy-mean flow interactions are critical processes in the ocean energy cycle. This study investigated the energetics of eddy-mean flow interactions in the western tropical Pacific Ocean using the multiscale window transform (MWT) and MWT-based canonical transfer theory, based on 16-year numerical outputs from the Ocean General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator and two mooring measurements. Energy analysis revealed that prominent eddy kinetic energy (EKE) appears in the upper layer of the Sulawesi Sea and the source region of North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC), and in the subsurface layer along the Philippine coast. The kinetic energy in the upper layer is mainly transferred from the mean flow to the eddy field through barotropic instability. Below the thermocline, the prominent subsurface EKE is not only caused by barotropic conversion, but also by baroclinic one. Subsurface mesoscale eddies east of the Mindanao Island extract energy from mean flow through barotropic instability, and those further north seem to release their kinetic energy to the mean flow of North Equatorial Undercurrent, indicating inverse energy cascades. Our results highlight that the advection effect plays a key role in the horizontal distribution of EKE, which generally shifts the high EKE area a few degrees downstream from the eddy formation region. Particularly, in the source region of NECC, the advection term shifts the EKE center 5° eastward from ∼132°E to ∼137°E.

Diabatic Eddy Forcing Increases Persistence and Opposes Propagation of the Southern Annular Mode in MERRA-2

Abstract As a dominant mode of jet variability on subseasonal time scales, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) provides a window into how the atmosphere can produce internal oscillations on longer-than-synoptic time scales. While SAM’s existence can be explained by dry, purely barotropic theories, the time scale for its persistence and propagation is set by a lagged interaction between barotropic and baroclinic mechanisms, making the exact physical mechanisms challenging to identify and to simulate, even in latest generation models. By partitioning the eddy momentum flux convergence in MERRA-2 using an eddy–mean flow interaction framework, we demonstrate that diabatic processes (condensation and radiative heating) are the main contributors to SAM’s persistence in its stationary regime, as well as the key for preventing propagation in this regime. In SAM’s propagating regime, baroclinic and diabatic feedbacks also dominate the eddy–jet feedback. However, propagation is initiated by barotropic shifts in upper-level wave breaking and then sustained by a baroclinic response, leading to a roughly 60-day oscillation period. This barotropic propagation mechanism has been identified in dry, idealized models, but here we show evidence of this mechanism for the first time in reanalysis. The diabatic feedbacks on SAM are consistent with modulation of the storm-track latitude by SAM, altering the emission temperature and cloud cover over individual waves. Therefore, future attempts to improve the SAM time scale in models should focus on the storm-track location, as well as the roles of the cloud and moisture parameterizations. Significance Statement As they circumnavigate the planet, the tropospheric jet streams slowly drift north and south over about 30 days, longer than the normal limit of weather prediction. Understanding the source of this “memory” could improve our knowledge of how the atmosphere organizes itself and our ability to make long-term forecasts. Current theories have identified several possible internal atmospheric interactions responsible for this memory. Yet most of the theories for understanding the jets’ behavior assume that this behavior is only weakly influenced by atmospheric water vapor. We show that this assumption is not enough to understand jet persistence. Instead, clouds and precipitation are more important contributors in reanalysis data than internal “dry” mechanisms to this memory of the Southern Hemisphere jet.

Impact of the North Pacific Meridional Mode on the Tropical Pacific Modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Abstract The North Pacific meridional mode (NPMM) peaking in boreal spring influences El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) properties in the ensuing winter. Whether the precursory impact of NPMM on the spatial diversity of ENSO has decadal variation remains unknown. Using long-term reanalysis datasets, we find that the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) significantly modulates the NPMM forcing on two types of ENSO. During the positive IPO (+IPO) phase, a strengthened background Aleutian low and southward-shifted storm track, in comparison to the negative IPO (−IPO) phase, produce stronger basin-scale negative geopotential height tendency anomalies over the North Pacific through synoptic-scale eddy–mean flow interaction. Such strong background negative tendency facilitates an Aleutian low–like pressure monopole rather than a North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)-like pressure dipole in boreal spring, leading to a weak NPMM that cannot effectively promote development of either a central Pacific (CP) or an eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO. By contrast, the NPO-like dipole enhances in boreal spring during −IPO, corresponding to stronger and more frequently occurring NPMM events that induce a robust CP-ENSO-like response in boreal winter. Moreover, the −IPO-related tropical Pacific mean states and the associated positive feedbacks cause a strong decrease in mixed layer temperature variance in the equatorial eastern Pacific, but a slight increase in the central Pacific, thus further contributing to the enhanced correlation between NPMM and CP-ENSO. Therefore, −IPO has played a role in the stronger impact of NPMM on CP-ENSO since the 1990s, and the modulation effects of IPO should be considered in understanding the extratropical–tropical climatic connection and ENSO spatial diversity.

Relationship between the AMOC and the Multidecadal Variability of the Midlatitude Southern Indian Ocean

Abstract Air–sea coupling system in the southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO; 35°–55°S, 40°–75°E) exhibits predominant multidecadal variability that is the strongest during austral summer. It is characterized by an equivalent barotropic atmospheric high (low) pressure over warm (cold) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and a poleward (equatorward) shift of the westerlies during the positive (negative) phase. In this study, physical processes of this multidecadal variability are investigated by using observations/reanalysis and CMIP6 model simulations. Results suggest that the multidecadal fluctuation can be explained by the modulation of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the local air–sea positive feedback in the SWIO. In both observations/reanalysis and CMIP6 model simulations, the AMOC fluctuation presents a significantly negative correlation with the multidecadal SST variation in the SWIO when the AMOC is leading by about a decade. The mechanisms are that the preceding AMOC variation can cause an interhemispheric dipolar pattern of SST anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean. Subsequently, the SST anomalies in the midlatitudes of the South Atlantic can propagate to the SWIO by the oceanic Rossby wave under the influence of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Once the SST anomalies reach the SWIO, these SST anomalies in the oceanic front can affect the baroclinicity in the lower troposphere to influence the synoptic transient eddy and then cause the atmospheric circulation anomaly via the eddy–mean flow interaction. Subsequently, the anomalous atmospheric circulation over the SWIO can significantly strengthen the SST anomalies through modifying the oceanic meridional temperature advection and latent and sensible heat flux.

Large-Scale Eddy-Mean Flow Interaction in the Earth's Extratropical Atmosphere

Large-scale circulation of the atmosphere in the Earth's extratropics is dominated by eddies, eastward (westerly) zonal winds, and their interaction. Eddies not only bring about weather variabilities but also help maintain the average state of climate. In recent years, our understanding of how large-scale eddies and mean flows interact in the extratropical atmosphere has advanced significantly due to new dynamical constraints on finite-amplitude eddies and the related eddy-free reference state. This article reviews the theoretical foundations for finite-amplitude Rossby wave activity and related concepts. Theory is then applied to atmospheric data to elucidate how angular momentum is redistributed by the generation, transmission, and dissipation of Rossby waves and to reveal how an anomalously large wave event such as atmospheric blocking may arise from regional eddy-mean flow interaction.

Meridional Variation of the Mascarene High and Atmospheric Transient Eddy Dynamical Forcing over the Southern Indian Ocean in Austral Winter

Abstract This study reveals a close relation between the Mascarene high (MH), atmospheric transient eddies (hereafter transient eddies or eddies for short), and the sea surface temperature (SST) front over the southern Indian Ocean in austral winter. Climatologically, the subpolar westerly jet couples well with transient eddies via eddy–mean flow interaction and the anticyclonic vorticity to its north helps with anchoring the MH. On the interannual time scale, the MH exhibits a dominant meridional variation accompanied by intensity variability. When the MH moves poleward and intensifies, positive quasi-barotropic geopotential height anomalies associated with a warm temperature feature the southern flank of MH. As a result of the modified mean temperature gradient, the subpolar jet and transient eddies’ activity are enhanced near the jet exit; in contrast, the subtropical westerly jet and eddies are weakened over the jet entrance, mainly via the baroclinic energy conversion. As feedback, the anomalous transient eddies can trigger the poleward shift of MH by diverging the extended Eliassen–Palm (E-P) flux from subpolar to subtropical region and thus the intensification of subpolar jet and weakness of subtropical jet. Such positive feedback between the meridional variation of MH and transient eddies could be attributed to the underlying SST anomalies. Early SST warming appears over the southwestern Indian Ocean 3 months prior and shifts the Agulhas SST front poleward. The poleward Agulhas SST front could further induce a southward displacement of the activity of transient eddies by changing the low-level atmospheric baroclinicity. Hence, the SST anomalies over the southern Indian Ocean may trigger the meridional variation of MH via the positive eddies–mean flow feedback.

A Pan–North Pacific Wintertime Surface Air Temperature Pattern Influenced by the SST Anomalies over the Kuroshio and Oyashio Extension

Abstract A new wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) pattern, called the Asia–Kuroshio and Oyashio Extension–North America (AKNA) pattern, is identified over the pan–North Pacific region (85°E–85°W, 25°–65°N) based on NCEP reanalysis data. The AKNA pattern is likely to influence the climate of the extratropical area of Asia and North America via two SAT dipoles and has a significant impact on the wintertime extremely cold weather along the eastern coastal regions of East Asia. Simulations using an atmospheric general circulation model indicate that wintertime sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the Kuroshio and Oyashio Extension (KOE) region can force an equivalent barotropic atmospheric ridge downstream and weaken the Siberian high and Alaska atmospheric ridge, resulting in the formation of the AKNA pattern. This circulation pattern tends to intensify the midlatitude (40°–60°N) westerlies over East Asia, which inhibits the southward invasion of the cold air into southern East Asia. Further diagnostic analysis indicates that the KOE SSTa can modulate the variation of storm track and westerlies by affecting baroclinic instability and eddy–mean flow interaction. Moreover, the KOE SSTa can provide a favorable environment for the development of the local atmospheric ascending motion and secondary circulation across the KOE SSTa, thereby affecting variability of the free atmosphere. Significance Statement This study aims to build a connection between the wintertime extratropical climate and the variation of the Kuroshio and Oyashio Extension. This work isolated a new wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) pattern over mid–high-latitude Asia and North America, which explains a considerable proportion of cold extremes over the eastern regions of East Asia. The reanalysis data and model simulations indicate that the temporal variability of the SAT pattern is influenced by the change of sea surface temperature in the Kuroshio and Oyashio Extension. These findings emphasize the important role of midlatitude air–sea interaction in the modulation of the mid–high-latitude climate.

Energetics of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Part I: The Lorenz Energy Cycle and the Vertical Energy Redistribution

Abstract Recent studies suggest that the eddy kinetic energy is localized in the lee of significant topographic features in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Here we explore the importance of the local dynamics quantitatively using the outputs from the realistic ocean general circulation model hindcast with the aid of the modified Lorentz energy cycle. Results confirm the importance of energy transfer among reservoirs in the downstream region of standing meanders, showing that the major five standing meanders are responsible for more than 70% of the kinetic energy transfer to eddies and dissipation over the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region. The eddy kinetic energy is generated in the upper 3000-m depth downstream of the standing meanders and transported due to the vertical energy redistribution governed by the vertical pressure flux toward the deeper layer where the eddy energy is dissipated. Moreover, we also calculate the work done by the Ekman transport to confirm that the wind energy input works as the dominant energy source for the baroclinic energy pathway. The advantage of this quantity against the vertical mean density flux is that it is independent of the reference states defined arbitrarily. It is shown that the westerlies can supply sufficient energy locally to initiate baroclinic instability in the Indian and Pacific sectors of the ACC, whereas the nonlocal process is important in the Atlantic sector. Our results suggest that the five narrow regions associated with significant topography play key roles in the energy balance of the ACC region. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to understand the eddy–mean flow interactions in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current from the energetic viewpoint. Our results show that the five narrow regions called “hotspots” in our study are responsible for the energy transfer from the mean flow to eddies. It is also found that the hotspots are important for the energy sink in the Southern Ocean. These findings suggest that the five hotspots are likely to play key roles in the responses of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to the changes in westerlies in these decades.

Toward Earth system modeling with resolved clouds and ocean submesoscales on heterogeneous many-core HPCs.

With the aid of the newly developed 'Sunway' heterogeneous-architecture supercomputer, which has world-leading HPC (high-performance computer) capability, a series of high-resolution coupled Earth system models (SW-HRESMs) with up to 5km of atmosphere and 3km of ocean have been developed. These models can meet the needs of multiscale interaction studies with different computational costs. Here we describe the progress of SW-HRESMs development, with an overview of the major advancements made by the international Earth science community in HR-ESMs. We also show the preliminary results of SW-HRESMs with regard to capturing major weather-climate extremes in the atmosphere and ocean, stressing the importance of permitted clouds and ocean submesoscale eddies in modeling tropical cyclones and eddy-mean flow interactions, and paving the way for further model development to resolve finer scales with even higher resolution and more realistic physics. Finally, in addition to increasing model resolution, the development procedure for a non-hydrostatic cloud and ocean submesoscale resolved ESM is discussed, laying out the major scientific directions of such a huge modeling advancement.

Subseasonal Prediction of Early-summer Northeast Asian Cut-off Lows by BCC-CSM2-HR and GloSea5

Northeast Asian cut-off lows are crucial cyclonic systems that can bring temperature and precipitation extremes over large areas. Skillful subseasonal forecasting of Northeast Asian cut-off lows is of great importance. Using two dynamical forecasting systems, one from the Beijing Climate Center (BCC-CSM2-HR) and the other from the Met Office (GloSea5), this study assesses simulation ability and subseasonal prediction skill for early-summer Northeast Asian cut-off lows. Both models are shown to have good ability in representing the spatial structure of cut-off lows, but they underestimate the intensity. The skillful prediction time scales for cut-off low intensity are about 10.2 days for BCC-CSM2-HR and 11.4 days for GloSea5 in advance. Further examination shows that both models can essentially capture the initial Rossby wave train, rapid growth and decay processes responsible for the evolution of cut-off lows, but the models show weaker amplitudes for the three-stage processes. The underestimated simulated strength of both the Eurasian midlatitude and East Asian subtropical jets may lead to the weaker local eddy-mean flow interaction responsible for the cut-off low evolution.

Cautionary tales from the mesoscale eddy transport tensor

The anisotropic mesoscale eddy transport tensor is diagnosed using passive tracers advected online in both an idealized 101-member mesoscale-resolving quasi-geostrophic (QG) double-gyre ensemble, and a realistic 24-member eddying (1/12∘) ensemble of the North Atlantic. We assert that the Reynold’s decomposition along the ensemble dimension, rather than the spatial or temporal dimension, allows us to capture the intrinsic spatiotemporal variability of the mean flow and eddies. The tensor exhibits good performance in reconstructing the eddy fluxes of passive tracers, here defined as fluctuations about the ensemble thickness-weighted averaged (TWA) mean. However, the inability of the tensor to reconstruct eddy fluxes of QG potential vorticity, which encapsulates the eddy-mean flow interaction, and other active tracers raises the question: To what extent can the diagnosed tensor be applied to inform the parametrization of mesoscale dynamics?

Energetics of Eddy–Mean Flow Interactions in the East Australian Current System

Abstract Examining eddy–mean flow interactions in western boundary currents is crucial for understanding the mechanisms of mesoscale eddy generation and the role of eddies in the large-scale circulation. However, this analysis is lacking in the East Australian Current (EAC) system. Here we show the detailed three-dimensional structure of the eddy–mean flow interactions and energy budget in the EAC system. The energy reservoirs and conversions are greatest in the upper 500 m, with complex vertical structures. Strong mean kinetic energy is confined within a narrow band (24.5°–32.5°S) in the EAC jet. Most energy is contained in the eddy fields instead of the mean flow in the EAC typical separation and extension regions (south of 32.5°S). Strong barotropic instability is the primary source of eddy kinetic energy north of 36°S, while baroclinic instability dominates the eddy kinetic energy production in the EAC southern extension, which peaks in the subsurface. The mean flow transfers 5.22 GW of kinetic energy and 3.33 GW of available potential energy to the eddy field in the EAC typical separation region. The largest conversion term is from available potential energy conversion from the mean flow to the eddy field through baroclinic instability, dominating between 29° and 35.5°S. Nonlocal eddy–mean flow interactions also play a role in the energy exchange between the mean flow and the eddy fields. This study provides the mean state of the eddy–mean flow interactions in the EAC system, paving the way for further studies exploring seasonal and interannual variability and provides a baseline for assessing the impact of environmental change.

A Perspective on the Evolution of Atmospheric Blocking Theories: From Eddy-Mean flow Interaction to Nonlinear Multiscale Interaction

A Perspective on the Evolution of Atmospheric Blocking Theories: From Eddy-Mean flow Interaction to Nonlinear Multiscale Interaction

Energetics of eddy–mean flow interactions in the deep western boundary current off the northeastern coast of Brazil

Thirty-six years output of a 1/10° eddy-resolving Ocean General Circulation Model are used to analyze the energetics of eddy–mean flow interactions in the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) region of the tropical South Atlantic between 5°S and 16°S. The DWBC flow has a coherent structure between 5°S and 8°S but breaks up into a train of eddies downstream of a region of strong bathymetric curvature at 8°S. In the train of eddies area, the seasonal cycle of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) exhibits poleward phase propagation from May to September. The connection between the seasonal cycle of mean kinetic energy and EKE indicates an intensification of the downstream eddy field associated with enhanced upstream mean flow. The magnitudes of the baroclinic conversion and vertical eddy density flux terms are small in the DWBC core layer depth but somewhat elevated 500 m above and below the core. Eddy processes, including eddy generation and propagation, are accompanied by high EKE and large barotropic conversion. While in the global ocean baroclinic conversion is thought to dominate the energy transfer to EKE, our results suggest that barotropic energy conversion is the primary source of EKE and modulates its variability in the DWBC region of the deeper ocean.

Influence of the interannual variability of the Kuroshio Extension on the Mediterranean trough in the cold season

The impacts of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) interannual fluctuation on the Mediterranean trough (MedT) and associated Euro-Mediterranean climate in wintertime are analyzed in this study. It appears that when the KE index is positive (corresponds to a stable KE state with sharp sea surface temperature front and subsided oceanic eddies), the MedT is observed to be stronger in the west of its climatological position, resulting in a colder condition to the west of the Black Sea and more precipitation in the East Mediterranean and Anatolia Plateau. The opposite atmospheric pattern holds when the KE index is negative (unstable KE state). The empirical orthogonal function analysis is performed on 500-hPa geopotential height to obtain the dominant modes of MedT. The results show the KE index is significantly correlated with the intensity and zonal displacement of MedT, with correlation coefficients of 0.57 and 0.40, respectively. The low-frequency Rossby wave activity and high-frequency eddies are revealed as the prominent contributors to this co-variability between the KE and MedT. The upward turbulent heat flux transport from the ocean to the atmosphere strengthened by the stable KE activates the Rossby waves propagating upward and westward to the MedT region, contributing to approximately 30% of the MedT deepening. Meanwhile, the KE-driven Rossby waves intensify the background baroclinicity to the north of the Mediterranean Sea and thus enhance the transient eddy activity, consequently leading to another 20% of the MedT amplification via the eddy–mean flow interaction. The findings highlight the impacts of the KE state on the meteorological conditions in the Euro-Mediterranean region, which can potentially optimize the forecast accuracies of the MedT and associated Euro-Mediterranean climate variability.

Middepth Zonal Velocity in the Southern Tropical Indian Ocean: Striation-Like Structures and Their Dynamics

Abstract In this study, the upper-ocean absolute geostrophic currents in the southern Indian Ocean are constructed using Argo temperature and salinity data from the middepth (1000 m) zonal velocity derived from the Argo float trajectory. The results reveal alternating quasi-zonal striation-like structures of middepth zonal velocity in the equatorial and southern tropical Indian Ocean. Specifically, the eastward time-mean flows are located at the equator and 2°, 5°, 8°, 13°, 16°, 18°–19°, and 21°–22°S, with a meridional scale of ∼300 km. The generation mechanisms of the striation-like zonal velocity structure differ between the near-equatorial and off-equatorial regions. The triad of baroclinic Rossby wave instability plays a significant role in near-equatorial striations. In the south, the high potential vorticity (PV) of Antarctic intermediate water and low PV of southern Indian Ocean Subantarctic Mode Water lead to strong baroclinic instability, which increases the eddy kinetic energy in the middepth layer, thus contributing to a turbulent PV gradient. The convergence/divergence of the eddy PV flux generates the quasi-zonal striations. The meridional scale of the striations is controlled by the most unstable wavelength of baroclinic instability, which explains the observations. Significance Statement The middepth zonal velocity resembles a system of eastward/westward jets with a considerably smaller width than the larger-scale ocean surface circulation. Such a phenomenon always occurs in a turbulent ocean that presents eddy or eddy–mean flow interactions. This study used float observations to reveal a robust middepth zonal velocity in the southern tropical Indian Ocean, where the width of the eastward time-mean flows is approximately 300 km. Smaller eddies drive the zonal currents with a smaller width, and the energy of the eddies is released from the unstable vertical structure at middepths. This study provides new insights into the generation mechanism of small-width zonal current structures in the deep ocean.

Improved Gulf Stream separation through Brinkman penalization

The advantage of a smooth representation of bathymetry in terrain-following σ-coordinate ocean models is compromised by the need to avoid numerical errors on steep slopes associated with pressure gradient discretization or spurious diapycnal diffusion. Geopotential z-coordinate models avoid these errors, but greatly underrepresent the interaction of flow with a topographic slope, especially when the bathymetry is underresolved. Hybrid coordinate models are also deficient because it is difficult to find a satisfactory compromise between z and σ coordinates. More general vertical coordinates (not just combinations of z and σ) can also be used, in particular for ocean interior, but without solving the problems associated with the representation of bathymetry. With volume penalization, we do not seek a compromise, but rather a correction to the usual coordinate systems that realistically recovers continuous and steep bathymetry. The Brinkman volume penalization method studied here is a modified version of the one introduced in Debreu et al.(2020) that simplifies the numerical implementation of the penalization, increases robustness and improves its computational performance for realistic long-term simulations, while preserving accuracy. We apply this penalization method to the Gulf Stream separation problem that has puzzled modelers for decades. The method improves the representation of the flow-topography interaction and achieves realistic separation of the Gulf Stream at resolutions as coarse as 1/8°. In addition, it provides a tool to separate the effect of eddy activity and topographic slope when changing grid resolution. This has never before been possible because at coarse resolution none of the usual coordinate systems can properly represent a steep continental slope. Our results show that realistic bathymetry is more important than eddy activity in ensuring realistic Gulf Stream separation, even though many recent studies tend to focus on the eddy activity. A steep slope can exert a stabilizing influence that promotes a strong mean slope current with strong inertia that helps it separate from the coast at the topographic curvature of Cape Hatteras. We anticipate that a successful topographic slope correction will be very valuable for climate models, as their current resolution is far from sufficient to represent western boundary currents (WBCs) using traditional coordinate systems. Our results suggest that a climate model with a 1/4° resolution using volume penalization — and perhaps also some parameterization of the eddy-mean flow interaction to energize the WBCs — could represent ocean circulation much more realistically than a model at the same resolution, but without volume penalization.

The Atmospheric Response to Meridional Shifts of the Gulf Stream SST Front and Its Dependence on Model Resolution

Abstract The Gulf Stream (GS) plays a key role in shaping the North Atlantic climate. Moreover, the associated sea surface temperature (SST) front undergoes interannual-to-decadal variability that is thought to force significant atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, general circulation models do not accurately reproduce the atmospheric response to SST front variability as estimated from observations. In this work we analyze the atmospheric response to the GS SST front (GSF) shifts in a multimodel ensemble of atmosphere-only simulations forced with observed SSTs (1950–2014). The atmospheric response is found to be resolution dependent. Only the high-resolution simulations produce a wintertime response similar to observed anomalies. More specifically, (i) analysis of the atmospheric thermodynamic balance close to the GSF showed that the anomalous diabatic heating associated to the GSF displacement is mainly balanced by vertical motion and by meridional transient eddy heat transport (not the case for low-resolution models), while (ii) the large-scale response includes a meridional shift of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet and storm track homodirectional to the GSF displacement. This atmospheric response is accompanied by changes in low-level baroclinicity close to and north of the GSF, resulting from the oceanic forcing and the zonal atmospheric circulation anomalies respectively. The low-level baroclinicity anomalies lead to changes in baroclinic eddy activity and, ultimately, in the jet via eddy–mean flow interaction. Considering the two-way nature of air–sea interactions, using historical atmosphere-only simulations is a powerful way to isolate the impact of realistic oceanic variability on the atmosphere. Our results suggest that interannual-to-decadal predictability may be higher than what low-resolution models currently indicate.

On the seasonal prediction and predictability of winter surface Temperature Swing Index over North America

The rapid day-to-day temperature swings associated with extratropical storm tracks can cause cascading infrastructure failure and impact human outdoor activities, thus research on seasonal prediction and predictability of extreme temperature swings is of huge societal importance. To measure the extreme surface air temperature (SAT) variations associated with the winter extratropical storm tracks, a Temperature Swing Index (TSI) is formulated as the standard deviation of 24-h-difference-filtered data of the 6-hourly SAT. The dominant term governing the TSI variability is shown to be proportional to the product of eddy heat flux and mean temperature gradient. The seasonal prediction skill of the winter TSI over North America was assessed using Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's new seasonal prediction system. The locations with skillful TSI prediction show a geographic pattern that is distinct from the pattern of skillful seasonal mean SAT prediction. The prediction of TSI provides additional predictable climate information beyond the traditional seasonal mean temperature prediction. The source of the seasonal TSI prediction can be attributed to year-to-year variations of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection. Over the central United States, the correlation skill of TSI prediction reaches 0.75 with strong links to observed ENSO, NPO, and PNA, while the skill of seasonal SAT prediction is relatively low with a correlation of 0.36. As a first attempt of diagnosing the combined predictability of the first-order (the seasonal mean) and second-order (TSI) statistics for SAT, this study highlights the importance of the eddy-mean flow interaction perspective for understanding the seasonal climate predictability in the extra tropics. These results point toward providing skillful prediction of higher-order statistical information related to winter temperature extremes, thus enriching the seasonal forecast products for the research community and decision makers.