Ecosystem Restoration Planning Research Articles

Detecting the effects of opencast mining on ecosystem services value in arid and semi-arid areas based on time-series remote sensing images and Google Earth Engine (GEE)

Ecosystem Services Value (ESV) are the various beneficial functions and products that natural ecosystems provide to humans, and are important indicators for evaluating ecosystem conditions and human well-being. Opencast mining is one of the human activities that severely damage the surface environment, but its long-term impact on ecosystem services lacks systematic assessment. This study takes the Ordos opencast mining area as an example, and calculates the value of ESV from 1990 to 2020 based on the Google Earth Engine platform. Mann-Kendall Tau-b with Sen’s Method (Sen + mk test) and Joinpoint regression model were used to analyzes its spatiotemporal variation characteristics. Further revealed the impacts of opencast mining on ESV as well as the trend of ESV changes. The results show that: (1) The dynamic ESV levels in the study area fluctuated considerably from 1990 to 2020 with an overall decreasing trend of 89.45%. (2) Among nine types ecosystem services, most of them were significantly different (p < 0.001) between mining areas and control areas, with biodiversity protection (BP), climate regulation (CR), gas regulation (GR), soil formation and retention (SFR), water supply (WS) and waste treatment (WT) showed a significant decrease between 1990 and 2020. (3) In the past 30 years, the ESV of the study area showed an overall improvement trend, where the improved area accounted for 48.45% of the total area of the study area. However, the degraded area also accounted for 21.28, and 17.19% of the area belonged to severe degradation. With 67% of the significantly degraded areas distributed within mining concessions. (4) The trend of ESV changes in the mining impact areas and the control area showed significant differences. The ESV of the control area increased continuously, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 0.7(95%CI:0.50 ~ 0.9, P < 0.001) from 1990 to 2020; while the ESV of the mining impact areas first stabilized and then decreased significantly, with an AAPC of − 0.2(95%CI:− 0.3 ~ − 0.1,P < 0.001) from 1990 to 2020. This study provides scientific support for formulating ecosystem management, restoration plans, and payment for ecosystem service policies, which is conducive to achieving regional sustainable development and improving human well-being.

River-floodplain connectivity and residence times controlled by topographic bluffs along a backwater transition

The morphology of river levees and floodplains is an important control on river-floodplain connectivity within a river system under sub-bankfull conditions, and this morphology changes as a river approaches the coast due to backwater influence. Floodplain width can also vary along a river, and floodplain constrictions in the form of bluffs adjacent to the river can influence inundation extent. However, the relative controls of backwater-influenced floodplain topography and bluff topography on river-floodplain connectivity have not been studied. We measure discharge along the lower Trinity River (Texas, USA) during high flow to determine which floodplain features are associated with major river-floodplain flow exchanges. We develop a numerical model representing the transition to backwater-dominated river hydraulics, and quantify downstream changes in levee channelization, inundation, and fluxes along the river-floodplain boundary. We model passive particle transport through the floodplain, and compute residence times as a function of location where particles enter the floodplain. We find that bluff topography controls flow from the floodplain back to the river, whereas levee topography facilitates flow to the floodplain through floodplain channels. Return flow to the river is limited to locations just upstream of bluffs, even under receding flood conditions, whereas outflow locations are numerous and occur all along the river. Residence times for particles entering the floodplain far upstream of bluffs are as much as two orders of magnitude longer than those for particles entering short distances upstream of bluffs. This study can benefit floodplain ecosystem management and restoration plans by informing on the key locations of lateral exchange and variable residence time distributions in river-floodplain systems.

Quantifying wetness variability in aapa mires with Sentinel‐2: towards improved monitoring of an EU priority habitat

AbstractAapa mires are waterlogged northern peatland ecosystems characterized by a patterned surface structure where water‐filled depressions (‘flarks’) alternate with drier hummock strings. As one of the EU Habitat Directive priority habitats, aapa mires are important for biodiversity and carbon cycling, harbouring several red‐listed species and supporting unique species communities. Due to their sensitivity to hydrological disturbances, reliable, up‐to‐date and systematic information on the hydrological condition and responses of mires is crucial and required for multiple purposes ranging from carbon exchange modelling to EU Habitats Directive reporting and conservation and ecosystem restoration planning. Here, we demonstrate the usability of Sentinel‐2 satellite data in a semi‐automatic cloud‐based approach to retrieve large‐scale information on aapa mire hydrological variability. Two satellite‐derived metrics, soil moisture index and the extent of water‐saturated surfaces based on pixel‐wise classification, are used to quantify monthly and interannual wetness variation between 2017 and 2020 across Natura 2000 aapa mires in Finland, including responses to the extreme drought of 2018. The results revealed high temporal variability in wetness, particularly in the southern parts of the aapa mire zone and generally in the late summer months interannually. Observations from the drought summer showed that one third of usually year‐round wet flark surfaces may be exposed to drying during climatic extremes. Responses varied between sites and regions, implicating the significance of environmental factors for drought resistance: some sites maintained high levels of moisture, whereas others lost wet surfaces completely. Our study provides the first comprehensive national‐level representation of seasonal and interannual wetness variability and drought‐sensitivity of pristine aapa mire sites. The approach and methods used here can be directly upscaled outside protected areas and to other EU countries. Thus, they provide a means for harmonized, systematic large‐scale monitoring of this priority habitat, as well as valuable information for other applications supporting peatland conservation and research.

Land Use Optimization and Carbon Storage Estimation in the Yellow River Basin, China

Urban development and coal extraction have caused conflicts regarding production, living, and ecological lands in the Yellow River basin. Here, a coupled genetic algorithm–patch generating land use simulation InVEST model was constructed to optimize land use/land cover (LULC) and simulate carbon storage changes. This study shows that the LULC changed dramatically from 2010 to 2020 in an area that accounts for 31.96% of the area of the Yellow River basin. Inappropriate land use conversion and encroachment have reduced carbon storage by 2.92 × 106 t, destroying the stability of the ecosystem. The development of cities has encroached on cultivated land, which may have affected the region’s food security. Following LULC optimization, ecological and cultivated lands are gradually being restored, and the transition between the different lands tends to be orderly, resulting in an increase of 24.84 × 106 t in carbon storage. The relationship between LULC and carbon storage shows that the high carbon intensity of woodland, grassland, and cultivated land is crucial to ensuring regional carbon balance. For the Yellow River basin, necessary environmental protection measures are the key to achieving high-quality economic development. This study can provide guidance for decision-makers in formulating ecosystem restoration plans.

Assessing vegetation restoration prospects under different environmental elements in cold and arid mountainous region of China

Assessing vegetation restoration prospects (VRPs) in degraded terrestrial ecosystems is of great importance for planning ecological restoration projects. However, few existing studies have systematically analyzed the relationship between vegetation trend persistence and VRPs and their drivers, especially in cold and arid mountainous areas. The typical cold and arid mountainous region-the Qilian Mountains was taken as the study area, and the trends and long-term memory of the growing season normalized difference vegetation index (GSNDVI) from 2000 to 2020 were explored. We constructed a VRPs assessment framework and identified the main environmental elements influencing vegetation restoration. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the vegetation improvement area of the Qilian Mountains was much larger than the degraded area, especially in the northwestern area, and the vegetation improvement was significant. About 31% of the study area showed an anti-persistent positive development trend, which requires continued attention and increased recovery efforts in the future. The terrain niche index (TNI), drought index and soil types were the environmental elements that had a strong influence on the VRPs. Regions with low TNI (< 0.6), high drought index (> 5), desert areas and organic soil environments were more likely to be restored with lower uncertainty. This study can provide a new framework for assessing VRPs in the Qilian Mountains and is expected to provide scientific guidance for ecosystem restoration planning in other regions worldwide, supporting the achievement of sustainable development goals.

Incorporating Evidence into Collaborative Ecosystem Restoration: A Content Analysis of Bibliographic References and their Use in Salmon Recovery Plans.

Collaborative environmental management draws on a wide range of information, from a variety of stakeholders, to inform policy. Scientific information is particularly relevant for ecosystem restoration plans, such as those created for recovering species on the brink of extinction. This study examines use of evidence in salmon recovery plans in Puget Sound, USA. Across 12 plans, coders characterized 1104 references to identify their source, recency, domain, and context. Subsequently, 11 plans were analyzed in-depth to identify how each reference was used to support particular kinds of claims. Results indicate the most frequent source of information cited in salmon recovery plans is government agencies, especially from national and state governments, followed by peer reviewed journal articles and scientific books. Journal articles come predominantly from high impact (top quartile) journals, although these articles are on average 15 years old. Sources are almost exclusively from the domain of natural sciences (97%), with just 1% social sciences and 2% non-scientific. More references come from beyond than within the local watershed. Different reference sources are used to support different kinds of claims, with government agency sources positively associated with claims about species status/trends, and peer reviewed journal articles positively associated with claims about causes of species decline. Overall, the lack of social science references, and lack of references to support claims about levels of community support, reduce managers' abilities to incorporate features of social systems into species recovery planning.

A high‐accuracy vegetation restoration potential mapping model integrating similar habitat and machine learning

AbstractVegetation restoration potential (VRP) mapping provides important information for ecosystem restoration planning. However, the inappropriate assumption of traditional models that VRPs are identical within an individual similar habitat unit may result in low accuracy of VRP maps. This study proposes an improved data‐driven model, namely, the similar habitat and machine learning‐based VRP mapping (SHMLVRPM) model. This new model introduces a variety of machine‐learning models to mine information on geographical environment heterogeneity in areas of similar habitat, which helps to improve the accuracy of VRP maps. Taking Yan'an City, Shanxi Province, China as our study area, we demonstrate the modelling process and validate the model. Our results show that the SHMLVRPM model can effectively construct high‐accuracy VRP maps, and its information entropy is approximately 5.8 greater than that derived from the traditional models. The random forest method has the highest prediction accuracy (R2 = 0.8) among the tested machine‐learning methods. The average VRP value of Yan'an is approximately 68%; counties with the low VRP achievement are concentrated in the northern part of Yan'an, only 54%. Our research results can assist policymakers in optimizing vegetation restoration options and promoting the protection and sustainable development of fragile ecosystems.

Climate sensitivity of water use by riparian woodlands at landscape scales

AbstractSemi‐arid riparian woodlands face threats from increasing extractive water demand and climate change in dryland landscapes worldwide. Improved landscape‐scale understanding of riparian woodland water use (evapotranspiration, ET) and its sensitivity to climate variables is needed to strategically manage water resources, as well as to create successful ecosystem conservation and restoration plans for potential climate futures. In this work, we assess the spatial and temporal variability of Cottonwood (Populus fremontii)‐Willow (Salix gooddingii) riparian gallery woodland ET and its relationships to vegetation structure and climate variables for 80 km of the San Pedro River corridor in southeastern Arizona, USA, between 2014 and 2019. We use a novel combination of publicly available remote sensing, climate and hydrological datasets: cloud‐based Landsat thermal remote sensing data products for ET (Google Earth Engine EEFlux), Landsat multispectral imagery and field data‐based calibrations to vegetation structure (leaf‐area index, LAI), and open‐source climate and hydrological data. We show that at landscape scales, daily ET rates (6–10 mm day−1) and growing season ET totals (400–1,400 mm) matched rates of published field data, and modelled reach‐scale average LAI (0.80–1.70) matched lower ranges of published field data. Over 6 years, the spatial variability of total growing season ET (CV = 0.18) exceeded that of temporal variability (CV = 0.10), indicating the importance of reach‐scale vegetation and hydrological conditions for controlling ET dynamics. Responses of ET to climate differed between perennial and intermittent‐flow stream reaches. At perennial‐flow reaches, ET correlated significantly with temperature, whilst at intermittent‐flow sites ET correlated significantly with rainfall and stream discharge. Amongst reaches studied in detail, we found positive but differing logarithmic relationships between LAI and ET. By documenting patterns of high spatial variability of ET at basin scales, these results underscore the importance of accurately accounting for differences in woodland vegetation structure and hydrological conditions for assessing water‐use requirements. Results also suggest that the climate sensitivity of ET may be used as a remote indicator of subsurface water resources relative to vegetation demand, and an indicator for informing conservation management priorities.

Water erosion aspects of land degradation neutrality to landscape planning tools at national scale

The soil erosion by water is a land degradation process identified the Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) conceptual framework and a soil threat recognized in the Soil Thematic Strategy. It is also a very significant problem in the Mediterranean area. The common cause of land degradation is incorrect land use and management practices, which enhance the importance of planning the future of the landscape. When solving a soil erosion problem, not only land degradation is being reversed, but soil safety is provided: water conservation, biodiversity improvement, ecosystem services provision and better landscape equilibrium.The Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) target, referred in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals for 2030, is defined as a state whereby the amount and quality of land resources necessary to support ecosystem functions and services and enhance food security remain stable or increase within specified temporal and spatial scales and ecosystems. Despite some initiatives and recent projects about the achievement of LDN target, the link to landscape planning tools is still lacking.The approach followed in this study incorporates the centric and holistic perspective of soil, and aims to contribute to a definition of a mapping methodology of the areas that should be submitted to land degradation neutrality plans providing ecosystem restoration planning and the co-benefits of restoring soil functions. This goal will be supported by the assessment of the soil conservation status at a national scale (Portugal), using an integrated approach between soil maintenance/improvement and soil degradation, with the current soil cover protection. The evaluation of soil cover protection was established with the interpretation of land use classes and its cover-management factor (C-factor) from the Universal Soil Loss Equation and was tested in three different scenarios: (S1) the higher C-values collected in the research studies (S2) the more recent C-value collected in the research studies and (S3) an adapted scenario with assumptions considered by the authors.The study applied to mainland Portugal showed that Scenario S3 was more equilibrated regarding the distribution of the results (conservation vs. restoration) but was dependent of a set of defined assumptions especially regarding the different forest trees characteristics and management practices performed in Portugal. In this scenario, it was identified that 45.6% of Portugal needs LDN planning towards ecosystem restoration. The proposed methodology also identifies different priority classes of intervention, where the public or private investments could be targeted. Those LDN planning areas are easily framed in the responses to achieve LDN: avoid, reduce or reverse.

Probabilistic assessment of remote sensing-based terrestrial vegetation vulnerability to drought stress of the Loess Plateau in China

Quantitative understanding of vegetation vulnerability under drought stress is essential to initiating drought preparedness and mitigation. In this study, a bivariate probabilistic framework is developed for assessing vegetation vulnerability and mapping drought-prone ecosystems more informatively, which is different from previous studies conducted in a deterministic way. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is initially correlated to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at contrasting timescales to evaluate the degree of vegetation dependence on water availability and screen out the vegetation response time. Afterward, the monthly NDVI series is connected with the most correlated SPI to derive joint distributions using a copula method. On such basis, conditional probabilities of vegetation losses are estimated under multiple drought scenarios and used for revealing tempo-spatial patterns of vegetation vulnerability. Particular focus is directed to the Loess Plateau (LP), China, which is a world-famous environmentally fragile area. Results indicate that the proposed framework is valid for vegetation vulnerability assessment as the pair-wise SPI-NDVI observations fall within high-density areas of the estimated NDVI distributions. From a probabilistic perspective, roughly 95% of the LP exhibits greater probability of vegetation losses when suffering from water deficits rather than water surplus. Vegetation loss probabilities reaching their peak (39.7%) in summer indicate the highest vegetation vulnerability to drought stress in summer months sequentially followed by autumn (32.9%) and spring (31.0%), which is linked to marked variations in water requirement at different stages of vegetation growth. Spatially, drought-vulnerable regions are identified in the western edge with vegetation loss probability 20.6% higher than the LP mean value, suggesting higher vulnerability in more arid areas. Irrigation practices and large-scale vegetation restoration, as two important sources of anthropogenic disturbance in the LP, benefit the decreased vegetation vulnerability over the majority of affected areas. Results may increase our knowledge about climatic controls on vegetation health and support the ecosystem restoration planning in the LP.

Uncovering the challenges of domestic energy access in the context of weather and climate extremes in Somalia

In Somalia, challenges related to energy access is influenced by both weather and climate extremes and associated conflict. The objective of this article is to gain an improved understanding of these risks and challenges, which are faced by the most vulnerable populations in the country. In particular, cooking energy-related challenges faced by households affected by weather and climate extremes and conflicts include protection risks, malnutrition, health risks, environmental degradation and heightened tension and conflict between social groups. Interventions to address these issues should focus on both fuel supply and fuel demand as well as on improving the livelihoods of affected populations. In the aftermath of an extreme weather event it is recommended that assessments of the energy needs of all affected populations, including both hosts and Internally Displaced People (IDPs), be conducted. Post-disaster support should include the promotion of energy-efficient technologies for cooking as well as alternative sources of fuel where available, including non-wood based renewable energy. The implementation of a field inventory to assess the status of natural resources in areas vulnerable to climate impacts could help to determine woody biomass trends and enable the development of ecosystem restoration plans. These could include provisions for the establishment of woodlots and agro-forestry, thus building resilience to environmental degradation while maintaining woody biomass resources in and around displacement camps. Interventions should also be designed jointly with partners, and activities should be conflict-sensitive to ensure an enhanced state of resiliency and preparedness among vulnerable populations.

Integrated restoration prioritization–A multi-discipline approach in the Greater Toronto Area

Ecosystem restoration planning requires an integrated approach considering many components of the natural system when prioritizing where and what to restore. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority and partners have developed a multi-discipline and multi-benefit approach to restoration planning that facilitates effective restoration works, which contribute to realizing regional watershed objectives pertaining to natural system functions. Through various long term monitoring and modeling initiatives, Toronto and Region Conservation Authority has amassed a wealth of knowledge on terrestrial biodiversity, aquatic ecosystems, hydrology, and headwater conditions. The aim of Integrated Restoration Prioritization is to identify impairments and threats to ecosystem function as a means to improve the delivery of ecological goods and services. Consolidating data and comparing discrete areas based on different parameters and thresholds can help direct decision making for future restoration initiatives. The first iteration of the Integrated Restoration Prioritization analyzed existing datasets, identified gaps, and made recommendations for future monitoring. This approach will assist with delisting Beneficial Use Impairments #14 Loss of Fish and Wildlife Habitat and #3 Degradation of Fish and Wildlife Populations within the Toronto Remedial Action Plan area. Further, the Integrated Restoration Prioritization will assist in implementing the recommendations made in watershed planning documents pertaining to fisheries and natural heritage management. Specifically, the Integrated Restoration Prioritization will identify where impairments to ecological function are located, ensure habitats and corridor linkages are protected or restored, and prioritize local and upstream catchments that could contribute most to improving the natural system if restored.

Diversity of forest soils and bedrock in soil regions of the Central-European highlands (Czech Republic)

Soil and bedrock influence ecosystem diversity through various means. The aim of this study was to typify forest soil catena diversity (FSCD) in the Central-European soil regions of the Czech Republic for ecosystem restoration planning. Typification was carried out through cluster analysis on Shannon-Wiener' indexes of soil and bedrock diversities and of terrain. The relationships between soil and ecosystem diversity were distinguished by employing linear regression confidence intervals. Flat, hillycountry and broken soil body combination groups (SBCGs) and eight FSCD types were defined at Central-European conditions. The FSCD types are divided into areas of lower pedodiversity in hillycountry SBCG and those of higher pedodiversity in flat and broken SBCGs. Primary distinguishing features of hillycountry SBCG are below-average soil diversity and below-average altitudinal differences. Clusters of flat or broken SBCGs are subdivided by average or above-average soil diversities and below-average or above-average altitudinal differences, respectively. Soil diversity is directly correlated with the size of the soil region, its total altitudinal difference, bedrock diversity and perimeter structure integrity. Soil diversity higher than bedrock diversity prevails in the Czech forests. Soil regions have higher differences in diversities of soil and bedrock. FSCD types have higher soil diversity values but lower differences in contrast to those of bedrock. Flat FSCD covers 45% of the total area, while hillycountry FSCD only covers 6% and broken FSCD covers 49%. Low FSCD covers 48%, medium FSCD covers 18%, and high FSCD covers 34%. >52% of Czech forests, but 47% with medium up to high FSCD, have a close relationship of higher soil diversity and lower bedrock diversity. Close link between soil and bedrock suggests common framework of ecosystem restoration in forested as well as forestless land.

Will autogenic succession be sufficient to recover from vegetation cover loss or will soil condition need to be addressed in the arid lands of Kuwait?

Intervention is often required for the restoration of damaged arid ecosystems, particularly when the base environmental conditions are no longer suitable for autogenic recovery. Umm Nigga, in Kuwait, was damaged by overgrazing and destructive camping. It is unclear whether its restoration will require remediation of the soil conditions, or whether autogenic succession can occur once the area is fenced and released from this pressure. Thus, in this project, we assessed the current condition of the site by collecting soil samples and vegetation assessment within each ecosystem and determined suitable locations for the re-vegetation of native seeds and seedlings using geographical information system. Our results showed that the vegetation in the coastal portions of the ecosystem was not damaged. However, in the desert ecosystem locations, vegetation cover was very low and composed of very few species in the damaged areas but still, most soil nutrients were in supply similar to that in the control areas. We conclude that soil remediation and re-vegetation are, likely, not necessary to restore the damaged sites in any of these ecosystems. Rather, fencing alone will probably release the ecosystem. With these sites as a model, a conceptual framework is presented for arid ecosystem assessment and restoration planning.

Alteration of hydrogeomorphic processes by invasive beavers in southern South America

The North American beaver (Castor canadensis) is an invasive species in southern Patagonia, introduced in 1946 as part of a program by the Argentine government to augment furbearers. Research focus has turned from inventorying the beaver's population and ecosystem impacts toward eradicating it from the region and restoring degraded areas. Successful restoration, however, requires a fuller determination of how beavers have altered physical landscape characteristics, and of what landscape features and biota need to be restored. Our goal was to identify changes to the physical landscape by invasive beaver. We analyzed channel and valley morphology in detail at one site in each of the three major forest zones occurring on the Argentine side of Tierra del Fuego's main island. We also assessed 48 additional sites across the three forest biomes on the island to identify a broader range of aquatic habitat occupied and modified by beaver. Beaver build dams with Nothofagus tree branches on streams, which triggered mineral sediment accretion processes in the riparian zone, but not in ways consistent with the beaver meadow theory and only at a few sites. At the majority of sites, beavers actively excavated peat and mineral sediment, moved thousands of cubic meters of sediment within their occupied landscapes and used it to build dams. Beaver were also common in fen ecosystems where pond formation inundated and drowned peat forming mosses and sedges, and triggered a massive invasion of exotic plant species. Results highlight that restoration of fen ecosystems is a previously unrecognized but pressing and challenging restoration need in addition to reforestation of Nothofagus riparian forests. We recommend that decision-makers include the full ecosystem diversity of the Fuegian landscape in their beaver eradiation and ecosystem restoration plans.

The colonization history of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) in pristine and drained raised bogs in Latvia

In this study, we determined the spatio-temporal patterns of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) colonization in a drained and an undrained raised bog in Latvia, in relation to climate data and drainage history. The age of trees was estimated and mapped. In the drained mire, tree groups with age 20 to 60 years covered an extensive area, and the time of colonization corresponded to a period of low precipitation and bog drainage. In the undrained mire, the age of Scots pine was mostly 30 to 50 years and the peak colonization likely occurred when the ground water level was deeper in a period of low precipitation. Thus, the evidence suggests that drainage is not the only factor driving the development of Scots pine stands in bogs in Latvia. Our results show that the impacts of other factors, such as climate, should also be considered in ecosystem restoration and management plans.

Assessing the impact of Danjiangkou reservoir on ecohydrological conditions in Hanjiang river, China

Natural flow variability is the primary driver of riverine ecosystem function and structure. Alterations in hydrologic regimes modify habitat attributes and impair ecosystem connectivity. The indicators of hydrologic alteration and range of variability approach methods are used to investigate the hydrologic alterations due to Danjiangkou reservoir in the middle stream of Hanjiang river, China, over the past five decades. The results show that Danjiangkou reservoir has significantly changed the ecohydrological flow regime downstream of the dam, especially in the spawning time of the famous four major carps. To minimize the negative ecological impacts, it is necessary to optimize the current operation rules of Danjiangkou reservoir for river ecosystem health protection. We hope the results of the current study could support ecosystem management and restoration plans and provide key ecohydrological parameters for the Danjiangkou reservoir ecological operations in the Hanjiang river.

Potential effects of climate change on Florida's Everglades.

Restoration efforts in Florida's Everglades focus on preserving and restoring this unique wetland's natural landscape. Because most of the Everglades is a freshwater peatland, it requires surplus rainfall to remain a peatland. Restoration plans generally assume a stable climate, yet projections of altered climate over a 50-year time horizon suggest that this assumption may be inappropriate. Using a legacy regional hydrological model, we simulated combinations of a temperature rise of 1.5 °C, a ± 10% change in rainfall, and a 0.46 m sea level rise relative to base conditions. The scenario of increased evapotranspiration and increased rainfall produced a slight increase in available water. In contrast, the more likely scenario of increased evapotranspiration and decreased rainfall lowered median water depths by 5-114 cm and shortened inundation duration periods by 5-45%. Sea level rise increased stages and inundation duration in southern Everglades National Park. These ecologically significant decreases in water depths and inundation duration periods would greatly alter current ecosystems through severe droughts, peat loss and carbon emissions, wildfires, loss of the unique ridge and slough patterns, large shifts in plant and animal communities, and increased exotic species invasions. These results suggest using adaptive restoration planning, a method that explicitly incorporates large climatic and environmental uncertainties into long-term ecosystem restoration plans, structural design, and management. Anticipated water constraints necessitate alternative approaches to restoration, including maintaining critical landscapes and facilitating transitions in others. Accommodating these uncertainties may improve the likelihood of restoration success.

Identifying Major Factors Controlling Groundwater Quality in Semiarid Area Using Advanced Statistical Techniques

There are many factors controlling groundwater pollution and vulnerability. However, the factors’ weights are still not reasonably investigated. In order to assess groundwater quality and the controlling factors in semiarid region, 178 groundwater samples were collected and analyzed for salinity and nitrate content. New statistical techniques of prediction profiler and hierarchical cluster combined with geographic information systems (GIS) were used to assess the groundwater quality based on three categorical controlling factors; landuse/ land cover (LULC), soil texture, and aquifer type. It is hypothesized these factors are controlling groundwater quality with various weights. Groundwater salinity across the study area varied from 327.0 to 9110.0 mg/L, while nitrate ranged from 0.2 mg/L to 339.6 mg/L. Both prediction profiler and cluster analyses provided excellent tools for quantifying the pollution magnitudes, weighing the controlling factors, and visualizing the pollution zones. Prediction profiler showed high capability to predict groundwater pollution (P < 0.0001 and 0.0038 for salinity and nitrate, respectively) where LULC was the most effective factor, followed by aquifer type and soil texture class. According to desirability function analysis, maximum salinity and nitrate pollution was predicted to be associated with irrigated agriculture lands at shallow aquifers with silty clay loam soils. Hierarchical cluster analysis combined with GIS mapping was able to group the controlling factors into six vulnerability zones. The generated groundwater spatial pollution map allowed for potential pollution sources identification (e.g. fertilizer use, treated waste water, overdrafting). This paper also offers detailed mapping for decision makers to allow further ecosystem restoration and rehabilitation planning.

Effects of stream flooding on the distribution and diversity of groundwater‐dependent vegetation in riparian areas

Summary1. Effects of the frequency and duration of flooding on the structural and functional characteristics of riparian vegetation were studied at four sites (n = 80, 50 × 50 cm, plots) along medium‐sized naturally meandering lowland streams. Special focus was on rich fens, which – due to their high species richness – are of high priority in nature conservation.2. Reed beds, rich fens and meadows were all regularly flooded during the 20‐year study period, with a higher frequency in reed bed areas than in rich fen and meadow areas. In rich fens, species richness was higher in low frequency flooded areas (≤3 year−1) than in areas with a high frequency of flooding (&gt;3 year−1) or no flooding, whereas species richness in reed beds and meadows was unaffected by flood frequency.3. The percentage of stress‐tolerant species was higher in low intensity flooded rich fen areas than in high intensity and non‐flooded areas, indicating that the higher species richness in low frequency flooded rich fens was caused by competitive release. We found no indication that increased productivity was associated with high flooding frequencies.4. We conclude that the restoration of morphological features in stream channels to increase the flooding regime can be beneficial for protected vegetation within riparian areas, but also that groundwater discharge thresholds and critical levels for protected vegetation should be identified and considered when introducing stream ecosystem restoration plans.