Ecosystem Modelling Approach Research Articles

Exploring Drivers of Historic Mercury Trends in Beluga Whales Using an Ecosystem Modeling Approach.

While mercury occurs naturally in the environment, human activity has significantly disturbed its biogeochemical cycle. Inorganic mercury entering aquatic systems can be transformed into methylmercury, a strong neurotoxicant that builds up in organisms and affects ecosystem and public health. In the Arctic, top predators such as beluga whales, an ecologically and culturally significant species for many Inuit communities, can contain high concentrations of methylmercury. Historical mercury concentrations in beluga in the western Canadian Arctic's Beaufort Sea cannot be explained by mercury emission trends alone; in addition, they could potentially be driven by climate change impacts, such as rising temperatures and sea ice melt. These changes can affect mercury bioaccumulation through different pathways, including ecological and mercury transport processes. In this study, we explore key drivers of mercury bioaccumulation in the Beaufort Sea beluga population using Ecopath with Ecosim, an ecosystem modeling approach, and scenarios of environmental change informed by Western Science and Inuvialuit Knowledge. Comparing the effect of historical sea ice cover, sea surface temperature, and freshwater discharge time series, modeling suggests that the timing of historical increases and decreases in beluga methylmercury concentrations can be better explained by the resulting changes to ecosystem productivity rather than by those to mercury inputs and that all three environmental drivers could partially explain the decrease in mercury concentrations in beluga after the mid-1990s. This work highlights the value of multiple knowledge systems and exploratory modeling methods in understanding environmental change and contaminant cycling. Future work building on this research could inform climate change adaptation efforts and inform management decisions in the region.

Coastal wetland restoration through the lens of Odum's theory of ecosystem development

Advancing ecological restoration assessments requires a more detailed consideration of species interactions and ecosystem processes. Most restoration projects rely on a few metrics not always directly linked with ecological theory. Here, we used Odum's theory of ecosystem development to assess and compare the ecosystem structure and services of created marshes (4–6 years old) with preexisting, reference marshes in a brackish water region of the Mississippi River Delta. We built ecosystem models for created and reference marshes that integrated large datasets of stomach contents, stable isotopes, and taxa abundances. Despite strong resemblance in community structure, created marshes were at an earlier succession stage compared to the reference marshes, having lower biomass (including exploited species), higher biomass turnover and production, less dependence on detritus, lower material cycling, and less energy flowing through specialist pathways. Although preserving preexisting marshes should be a priority, created marshes may still be an important tool for the restoration of coastal areas and their ecosystem services. In addition, our results show that comparisons of species biodiversity alone may fail to capture essential differences in ecosystem processes between habitats, which reinforces the importance of ecosystem modeling approaches to assess restoration projects.

Exploring fishing impacts on the structure and functioning of the Yellow Sea ecosystem using an individual-based modeling approach

The Yellow Sea is a marginal sea in the Northwestern Pacific where the fishery resources have been overfished and the community structure has greatly changed over the past six decades. Ecosystem modeling approaches are valuable tools to uncover potential mechanisms behind the ecosystem changes. Here, we developed ‘OSMOSE-YS’, an individual-based multi-species OSMOSE model that includes important commercial pelagic and demersal fish and invertebrates in the Yellow Sea. Simulations were carried out under three fishing scenarios to investigate how different levels of fishing pressure may have impacted the Yellow Sea ecosystem. Results indicate that the biomass of demersal fish continued to decline during 1970–2014, while the biomass of pelagic fish and invertebrates fluctuated periodically. Long-term fishing pressure has led to the reduction of total biomass, body sizes, and longevity of the modelled species. Under low-fishing condition, the ecosystem biomass is restored and the proportion of elder and larger individuals increases. On the contrary, high-fishing condition further decreases the proportion of high-trophic-level species. OSMOSE-YS serves as a baseline model to investigate ecosystem responses to different fishing strategies, in support of ecosystem-based fisheries management in the Yellow Sea.

Practice assessment of integrated marine pond aquaculture for increasing benefits and reducing environmental pollution using an ecosystem modeling approach

The transformation from semi-intensive and intensive aquaculture to integrated aquaculture is an effective way to upgrade the aquaculture process. Integrated aquaculture is better able to maintain a healthy environment and a balanced ecosystem for the cultured species as well as producing high quality commodities at a high yield. In this study, we demonstrate that ecosystem modeling can be used to help optimize and promote the integrated aquaculture model. First, the aquaculture management and main biochemical processes were parametrized according to the biological populations present, the physical environment, and the management practices for the integrated aquaculture marine pond of Portunus trituberculatus– Penaeus japonicus– Sinonovacula constricta. The ecosystem model of the pond unit was constructed by coupling the individual growth models of the three cultured animals. The goodness-of-fit indicators showed that this model accurately reproduced the dynamics of the cultured animals, plankton, and nutrients. After the ecosystem model was constructed and validated, the carrying capacity of the integrated aquaculture pond was evaluated by adjusting the stocking density and management practices based on the tailwater discharge standards. The economic benefits of the system and the ecological benefits of polyculture razor clams were quantitatively compared under two scenarios: the current stocking density and reaching the maximum capacity. The assessment results show that the aquaculture pond reached the carrying capacity when the stocking density was 1.8 times the current scenario (18 ind m−2, 27 ind m−2, 22 ind m−2 for P. trituberculatus, P. japonicus and S. constricta). At 1.8 times stocking density scenario, the profit increased by 51.59 %, and nitrogen and phosphorus removal increased by 51.48 % and 55.55 %, respectively. These results provide a theoretical basis for this integrated aquaculture model, which offers a promising way forward for sustainable industrial development. Possible applications and beneficial contributions of this aquaculture model in China are discussed.

Size‐selective predation effects on juvenile Chinook salmon cohort survival off Central California evaluated with an individual‐based model

AbstractVariation in the recruitment of salmon is often found to be correlated with marine climate indices, but mechanisms behind environment–recruitment relationships remain unclear and correlations often break down over time. We used an ecosystem modeling approach to explore bottom‐up and top‐down mechanisms linking a variable environment to salmon recruitment variations. Our ecosystem model incorporates a regional ocean circulation submodel for hydrodynamics, a nutrient‐phytoplankton‐zooplankton submodel for producing planktonic prey fields, and an individual‐based model (IBM) representing juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), combined with observations of foraging distributions and diet of a seabird predator. The salmon IBM consists of modules, including a juvenile salmon growth module based on temperature and salmon–prey availability, a behavior‐based movement module, and a juvenile salmon predation mortality module based on juvenile salmon size distribution and predator–prey interaction probability. Seabird–salmon interactions depend on spatial overlap and juvenile salmon size, whereby salmon that grow past the size range of the prey distribution of the predator will escape predation. We used a 21‐year historical simulation to explore interannual variability in juvenile Chinook salmon growth and predation‐mediated survival under a range of ocean conditions for sized‐based mortality scenarios. We based a series of increasingly complex predation scenarios on seabird observational data to explore variability in predation mortality on juvenile Chinook salmon. We initially included information about the predator spatial distribution, then added population size, and finally the predator's diet percentage made up of juvenile salmon. Model agreement improves with added predator complexity, especially during periods when predator abundance is high. Overall, our model found that when the fraction of juvenile salmon in seabird diet increased relative to alternate prey (e.g., Northern anchovy Engraulis mordax, and juvenile rockfish Sebastes spp.), there was a concomitant decrease in salmon cohort survival during their first year at sea.

Cumulative effects of offshore renewables: From pragmatic policies to holistic marine spatial planning tools

To alleviate climate change consequences, the UK government is pioneering offshore renewable energy developments at an ever-increasing pace. The North Sea is a dynamic ecosystem with strong bottom-up/top-down natural and anthropogenic drivers facing rapid climate change impacts. To ensure the compatibility of such large-scale developments with nature conservation obligations, regulatory processes set out that all effects need to be evaluated through cumulative impact assessments (CIA). However, by excluding climate change impacts and bottom-up effects of renewable developments, the CIA lacks spatio-temporal baselines linking oceanic ecosystem indicators to population dynamics, leading to uncertain predictions at population levels. CIA is currently required in Europe under the Strategic Environmental Assessment and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), suggesting that these two policy areas should be more closely aligned. This study presents an overview of the current CIA policy framework, enabling an ecosystem-based approach linking lower ecosystem components to top-predator populations using the UK as a case study. At the UK level, CIA requirements mirror the EU ones under the Marine and Coastal Access Act, the UK Marine Policy Statement, and the UK National Policy Statement. Firstly, we show how CIA and MSFD requirements are integrated into the UK licensing and maritime planning frameworks. Secondly, we provide policy pathways embedding the MSFD as a baseline for CIAs with European and UK regulations. Thirdly, we propose a framework encompassing a shared monitoring effort, an ecosystem modelling approach connected with two existing online databases supported with funds from Contracts for Difference. This integrated approach will enable a holistic and pragmatic ecosystem-based framework for more accurate and rapid methods for producing CIAs for offshore renewable energy developments.

Identifying drivers of change during the recent two decades in the Visayan Sea using a trophic modeling approach

The Visayan Sea is one of the major traditional fishing grounds in the Philippines and is likewise considered as a top contributor to the country’s overall fisheries production. However, fisheries surveys conducted over the past couple of decades have documented changes in the abundance and composition of catches and stocks toward an increasing dominance of invertebrates and low trophic levels fish families. Assessments of the commercially-important pelagic and demersal stocks were used to estimate population parameters that already exceed the sustainable reference limits. These traditional assessments point exclusively to fishing as the likely cause of the observed status and trends, but they fail to incorporate the potential influence of trophic interactions and variable environmental conditions despite a nationally-legislated mandate to apply an ecosystem approach to assessing and managing the country’s fisheries. Thus, an ecosystem model (Ecopath with Ecosim) of the Visayan Sea was constructed to investigate the role and extent of the fishery, trophic interactions, and changing environmental conditions as drivers of stock abundance and ecosystem dynamics. The results suggest that fishing and its corresponding trophic effects are the major drivers of invertebrate and fish biomass and catches in the Visayan Sea over the past two decades, while the environmental trends provide explanations for patterns that cannot be explained by fishing alone. Incorporating sea surface temperature variations and primary productivity anomalies produced the best-fitting models for most of the observed biomass and catch trends. The catches of the small pelagics (i.e., sardines and mackerels) were likewise found to be particularly affected by rainfall, while the biomass and catch of the small demersal fishes also show a sensitivity to chlorophyll-a concentrations. The primary productivity anomalies further showed a significant correlation with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which suggests that bottom-up trophic controls in the system may be affected by long-term regional climatic changes. These findings validate the applicability and necessity of the ecosystem modeling approach in assessing exploited marine ecosystems to complement the analyses from typically single-species population assessments, especially in the face of increasing environmental variability and projected climate change scenarios.

TrophicCS: Spatialized trophic data of the Celtic Sea continental shelf food web.

Understanding the dynamics of species interactions for food (prey-predator, competition for resources) and the functioning of trophic networks (dependence on trophic pathways, food chain flows, etc.) has become a thriving ecological research field in recent decades. This empirical knowledge is then used to develop population and ecosystem modeling approaches to support ecosystem-based management. The TrophicCS data set offers spatialized trophic information on a large spatial scale (the entire Celtic Sea continental shelf and upper slope) for a wide range of species. It combines ingested prey (gut content analysis) and a more integrated indicator of food sources (stable isotope analysis). A total of 1337 samples of large epifaunal invertebrates (bivalve mollusks and decapod crustaceans), zooplankton, fish, and cephalopods, corresponding to 111 taxa (94% determined at the species level), were collected and analyzed for stable isotope analysis of their carbon and nitrogen content. Samples were collected between 2014 and 2016, mostly during the month of November and between 57 and 516 m depth. Sample size varied between taxa (from 1 to 52), with 98 taxa having at least three samples. The gut contents of 1027 fish belonging to 10 commercially important species: black anglerfish (Lophius budegassa), white anglerfish (Lophius piscatorius), blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou), cod (Gadus morhua), haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), hake (Merluccius merluccius), megrim (Lepidorhombus whiffiagonis), plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), sole (Solea solea), and whiting (Merlangius merlangus) were analyzed. Sampling occurred in November 2014 and 2015. The gut content data set contains the occurrence of prey in gut, identified to the lowest taxonomic level possible. No prey were assigned for 274 empty gut contents. To consider potential ontogenetic diet changes, a large size range was sampled for each species. The TrophicCS data set was used to improve understanding of trophic relationships and ecosystem functioning in the Celtic Sea. Data are released under a CC-BY-NC-SA license, and please cite this paper when reusing the data.

Ecological modelling approaches for predicting emergent properties in microbial communities.

Recent studies have brought forward the critical role of emergent properties in shaping microbial communities and the ecosystems of which they are a part. Emergent properties-patterns or functions that cannot be deduced linearly from the properties of the constituent parts-underlie important ecological characteristics such as resilience, niche expansion and spatial self-organization. While it is clear that emergent properties are a consequence of interactions within the community, their non-linear nature makes mathematical modelling imperative for establishing the quantitative link between community structure and function. As the need for conservation and rational modulation of microbial ecosystems is increasingly apparent, so is the consideration of the benefits and limitations of the approaches to model emergent properties. Here we review ecosystem modelling approaches from the viewpoint of emergent properties. We consider the scope, advantages and limitations of Lotka-Volterra, consumer-resource, trait-based, individual-based and genome-scale metabolic models. Future efforts in this research area would benefit from capitalizing on the complementarity between these approaches towards enabling rational modulation of complex microbial ecosystems.

The Canadian Beaufort Shelf trophic structure: evaluating an ecosystem modelling approach by comparison with observed stable isotopic structure

Climate-driven impacts on marine trophic pathways worldwide are compounded by sea-ice loss at northern latitudes. For the Arctic, current information describing food-web linkages is fragmented, and there is a need for tools that can describe overarching trophic structure despite limited species-specific data. Here, we tested the ability of a mass-balanced ecosystem model (Ecopath with Ecosim, EwE) to reconstruct the trophic hierarchy of 31 groups, from primary producers to polar bears, in the Canadian Beaufort Sea continental shelf. Trophic level (TL) estimates from EwE were compared with those derived from two nitrogen stable isotope (SI) modelling approaches (SI linear and scaled) to assess EwE accuracy, using a data set of 642 δ15N observations across 282 taxa. TLs from EwE were strongly, positively related to those from both SI models (R2 > 0.80). EwE performed well (within 0.2 TL) for groups with relatively well-known diets or for taxa characterized by fewer trophic connections (e.g., primary consumers). Performance was worse (>0.5 TL) for species groups aggregated at coarse taxonomic levels, those with poorly documented diets, and for anadromous fishes. Comparisons with SI models suggested that the scaled approach can overestimate the TL of top predators if ecosystem-specific information is not considered.

Management Strategy Evaluation: Allowing the Light on the Hill to Illuminate More Than One Species

Management strategy evaluation (MSE) is a simulation approach that serves as a “light on the hill” (Smith, 1994) to test options for marine management, monitoring, and assessment against simulated ecosystem and fishery dynamics, including uncertainty in ecological and fishery processes and observations. MSE has become a key method to evaluate trade-offs between management objectives and to communicate with decision makers. Here we describe how and why MSE is continuing to grow from a single species approach to one relevant to multi-species and ecosystem-based management. In particular, different ecosystem modeling approaches can fit within the MSE process to meet particular natural resource management needs. We present four case studies that illustrate how MSE is expanding to include ecosystem considerations and ecosystem models as ‘operating models’ (i.e., virtual test worlds), to simulate monitoring, assessment, and harvest control rules, and to evaluate tradeoffs via performance metrics. We highlight United States case studies related to fisheries regulations and climate, which support NOAA’s policy goals related to the Ecosystem Based Fishery Roadmap and Climate Science Strategy but vary in the complexity of population, ecosystem, and assessment representation. We emphasize methods, tool development, and lessons learned that are relevant beyond the United States, and the additional benefits relative to single-species MSE approaches.

Using Gaming Technology to Explore and Visualize Management Impacts on Marine Ecosystems

We have developed an approach that connects a complex and widely used scientific ecosystem modeling approach with a game engine for real-time communication and visualization of scientific results. The approach, OceanViz, focuses on communicating scientific data to non-scientific audiences to foster dialogue, offering experimental, immersive approaches to visualizing complex ecosystems whilst avoiding information overload. Within the context of ecosystem-based fisheries management, OceanViz can engage decision makers into the implicit operation of scientific software as an aid during the decision process, and it can be of direct use for public communication through appealing and informative visualizations. Beside a server-client architecture to centralize decision making around an ecosystem model, OceanViz includes an extensive visualization toolkit capable of accurately reflecting marine ecosystem changes through a simulated three-dimensional (3D) underwater environment. Here we outline the ideas and concepts that went into OceanViz, its implementation and its related challenges. We reflect on challenges to scientific visualization and communication as food-for-thought for the marine ecosystem modeling community and beyond.

The role of mammals as key predators in marine ecosystems

Marine mammals are believed to exert a strong influence on ecosystems, though the best methods for measuring their ecological role have long been debated. Here, we used an ecosystem modelling approach to explore the underlying forces that define their ecological role, with a focus on predatory effects. We used the outputs and metadata from 55 food web models built using Ecopath with Ecosim software to analyse the effects of several likely explanatory variables on 2 indices of trophic significance: the relative trophic impact (TI) and the ‘keystoneness’ index (KS). Results showed that both TI and KS are positively related to trophic level. We also found an additional effect of group biomass in both TI and KS, but this response was clade-dependent: the higher the biomass, the higher the TI and KS of odontocetes and pinnipeds, suggesting that food intake contributes to the predatory effects of these clades through biomass variation. We did not detect a latitudinal pattern in the ecological role of any clades. We also found no effects of metabolic rates on TI and KS. In sum, these findings suggest that (1) the predatory effects of marine mammals are mainly defined by their trophic levels and food intake, and (2), since odontocetes and pinnipeds feed on higher trophic levels and have higher trophic impact, these 2 clades can be more vulnerable to competition from fisheries overexploitation. We can conclude that odontocete declines can cause significant changes in marine communities. Our meta-analytic approach contributes to the understanding of predatory effects of marine mammals on different ecosystems.

Community-level impacts of trawl selectivity in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea assessed using an ecosystem modelling approach

Abstract Switching from the traditional 40- or 44-mm diamond mesh codends to 50-mm diamond mesh (D50) or 40-mm square mesh (S40) codends is known to improve the size selection for commercial species and reduce discarding in the Mediterranean demersal trawl fisheries. This change has been recommended in the General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean and European Commission regulations. However, ecosystem-based assessment of improved selectivity still remains a challenge, and that is the aim of this study. For this purpose, an Ecopath model was developed and used to initialize dynamic simulations in Ecosim. The simulations changed gear-specific fishing mortality rates to represent the shifting from traditional codend to alternative codends. Our results suggest that the use of D50 or S40 codends would have a positive impact on the ecosystem as a whole and on the stock status of several commercial and non-commercial groups. Mixed trophic impact analysis indicated that, for species, like red mullet, the S40 codend was significantly better than the D50 codend. This information can be useful to policymakers, particularly for the areas where red mullet is the main target species and could inform trawl mesh options in the eastern Mediterranean.

Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels

Biofuel and bioenergy systems are integral to most climate stabilization scenarios for displacement of transport sector fossil fuel use and for producing negative emissions via carbon capture and storage (CCS). However, the net greenhouse gas mitigation benefit of such pathways is controversial due to concerns around ecosystem carbon losses from land use change and foregone sequestration benefits from alternative land uses. Here, we couple bottom-up ecosystem simulation with models of cellulosic biofuel production and CCS in order to track ecosystem and supply chain carbon flows for current and future biofuel systems, with comparison to competing land-based biological mitigation schemes. Analyzing three contrasting US case study sites, we show that on land transitioning out of crops or pasture, switchgrass cultivation for cellulosic ethanol production has per-hectare mitigation potential comparable to reforestation and severalfold greater than grassland restoration. In contrast, harvesting and converting existing secondary forest at those sites incurs large initial carbon debt requiring long payback periods. We also highlight how plausible future improvements in energy crop yields and biorefining technology together with CCS would achieve mitigation potential 4 and 15 times greater than forest and grassland restoration, respectively. Finally, we show that recent estimates of induced land use change are small relative to the opportunities for improving system performance that we quantify here. While climate and other ecosystem service benefits cannot be taken for granted from cellulosic biofuel deployment, our scenarios illustrate how conventional and carbon-negative biofuel systems could make a near-term, robust, and distinctive contribution to the climate challenge.

Multi-zone marine protected areas: Assessment of ecosystem and fisheries benefits using multiple ecosystem models

The current alarming state of many coastal ecosystems and fisheries calls for the development of tools to support recovery of exploited stocks, ensure their sustainable exploitation and protect marine ecosystems. Multi-zone Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are often advocated to reconcile conservation and fisheries benefits. However, while there is a consensus about the ecological benefits whether such types of MPAs can really provide both benefits is still uncertain. Here, we analysed three existing Northwestern Mediterranean multi-zone MPAs (Cerbère-Banyuls, Cap de Creus and Medes Islands) using a comparative temporal ecosystem modelling approach to assess their effectiveness over time in recovering marine resources and ecosystem in the area. Our results showed differences in the ecological effectiveness of the three MPAs, potentially driven by MPA design, management and implementation features. Temporal increases of benefits were small, whenever detected, and showed slight recoveries of some target species and ecological indicators, mostly in Cerbère-Banyuls and Medes Islands MPAs. Our results confirm the benefits of protection to coastal marine resources and ecosystems when MPAs are enforced but highlight the current limitations of the three MPAs due to their small size and the significant impacts of small-scale and recreational fisheries. This study illustrates the capability to evaluate protection effects of small multi-zone MPAs with an ecosystem modelling perspective and represents the baseline to develop future scenarios of alternative management options to foster ecosystem recovery and resource rebuilding in the studied MPAs.

Assessing the peatland hummock–hollow classification framework using high-resolution elevation models: implications for appropriate complexity ecosystem modeling

Abstract. The hummock–hollow classification framework used to categorize peatland ecosystem microtopography is pervasive throughout peatland experimental designs and current peatland ecosystem modeling approaches. However, identifying what constitutes a representative hummock–hollow pair within a site and characterizing hummock–hollow variability within or between peatlands remains largely unassessed. Using structure from motion (SfM), high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) of hummock–hollow microtopography were used to (1) examine how much area needs to be sampled to characterize site-level microtopographic variation; and (2) examine the potential role of microtopographic shape/structure on biogeochemical fluxes using plot-level data from nine northern peatlands. To capture 95 % of site-level microtopographic variability, on average, an aggregate sampling area of 32 m2 composed of 10 randomly located plots was required. Both site- (i.e. transect data) and plot-level (i.e. SfM-derived DEM) results show that microtopographic variability can be described as a fractal at the submeter scale, where contributions to total variance are very small below a 0.5 m length scale. Microtopography at the plot level was often found to be non-bimodal, as assessed using a Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Our findings suggest that the non-bimodal distribution of microtopography at the plot level may result in an undersampling of intermediate topographic positions. Extended to the modeling domain, an underrepresentation of intermediate microtopographic positions is shown to lead to potentially large flux biases over a wide range of water table positions for ecosystem processes which are non-linearly related to water and energy availability at the moss surface. Moreover, our simple modeling results suggest that much of the bias can be eliminated by representing microtopography with several classes rather than the traditional two (i.e. hummock/hollow). A range of tools examined herein can be used to easily parameterize peatland models, from GMMs used as simple transfer functions to spatially explicit fractal landscapes based on simple power-law relations between microtopographic variability and scale.

Cotton Yield Estimate Using Sentinel-2 Data and an Ecosystem Model over the Southern US

High-resolution data with nearly global coverage from Sentinel-2 mission open a new era for crop growth monitoring and yield estimation from remote sensing. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the potential of using Sentinel-2 biophysical data combined with an ecosystem modeling approach for estimation of cotton yield in the southern United States (US). The Boreal Ecosystems Productivity Simulator (BEPS) ecosystem model was used to simulate the cotton gross primary production (GPP) over three Sentinel-2 tiles located in Mississippi, Georgia, and Texas in 2017. Leaf area index (LAI) derived from Sentinel-2 measurements and hourly meteorological data from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis were used to drive the ecosystem model. The simulated GPP values at 20-m grid spacing were aggregated to the county level (17 counties in total) and compared to the cotton lint yield estimates at the county level which are available from National Agricultural Statistics Service in the United States Department of Agriculture. The results of the comparison show that the BEPS-simulated cotton GPP explains 85% of variation in cotton yield. Our study suggests that the integration of Sentinel-2 LAI time series into the ecosystem model results in reliable estimates of cotton yield.

A Hybrid Individual-Based and Food Web-Ecosystem Modeling Approach for Assessing Ecological Risks to the Topeka Shiner (Notropis topeka): A Case Study with Atrazine.

A hybrid model was used to characterize potential ecological risks posed by atrazine to the endangered Topeka shiner. The model linked a Topeka shiner individual-based bioenergetics population model (TS-IBM) to a comprehensive aquatic system model (CASMTS ) to simulate Topeka shiner population and food web dynamics for an Iowa (USA) headwater pool. Risks were estimated for monitored concentrations in Iowa, Missouri, and Nebraska (USA), and for monitored concentrations multiplied by 2, 4, and 5. Constant daily atrazine concentrations of 10, 50, 100, and 250 µg/L were assessed. Exposure-response functions were developed from published atrazine toxicity data (median effect concentrations [EC50s] and no-observed-effect concentrations). Two toxicity scenarios were developed: the first included sensitive and insensitive species of algae, and the second reduced algal EC50 values to increase atrazine sensitivity. Direct and indirect effects of atrazine on Topeka shiner prey were modeled; direct effects on Topeka shiner were not assessed. Risks were characterized as differences between population biomass values of 365-d baseline and exposure simulations. The results indicated no discernable food web effects for monitored atrazine concentrations or constant exposures of 10 µg/L on Topeka shiner populations for either toxicity scenario. Magnified monitored concentrations and higher constant concentrations produced greater modeled indirect effects on Topeka shiners. The hybrid model transparently combines species-specific and surrogate species data to estimate food web responses to environmental stressors. The model is readily updated by new data and is adaptable to other species and ecosystems. Environ Toxicol Chem 2019;38:2243-2258. © 2019 SETAC.

Predicting impacts of chemicals from organisms to ecosystem service delivery: A case study of insecticide impacts on a freshwater lake

Assessing and managing risks of anthropogenic activities to ecological systems is necessary to ensure sustained delivery of ecosystem services for future generations. Ecological models provide a means of quantitatively linking measured risk assessment endpoints with protection goals, by integrating potential chemical effects with species life history, ecological interactions, environmental drivers and other potential stressors. Here we demonstrate how an ecosystem modeling approach can be used to quantify insecticide-induced impacts on ecosystem services provided by a lake from toxicity data for organism-level endpoints. We used a publicly available aquatic ecosystem model AQUATOX that integrates environmental fate of chemicals and their impacts on food webs in aquatic environments. By simulating a range of exposure patterns, we illustrated how exposure to a hypothetical insecticide could affect aquatic species populations (e.g., recreational fish abundance) and environmental properties (e.g., water clarity) that would in turn affect delivery of ecosystem services. Different results were observed for different species of fish, thus the decision to manage the use of the insecticide for ecosystem services derived by anglers depends upon the favored species of fish. In our hypothetical shallow reservoir, water clarity was mostly driven by changes in food web dynamics, specifically the presence of zooplankton. In contrast to the complex response by fishing value, water clarity increased with reduced insecticide use, which produced a monotonic increase in value by waders and swimmers. Our study clearly showed the importance of considering nonlinear ecosystem feedbacks where the presence of insecticide changed the modeled food-web dynamics in unexpected ways. Our study highlights one of the main advantages of using ecological models for risk assessment, namely the ability to generalize to meaningful levels of organization and to facilitate quantitative comparisons among alternative scenarios and associated trade-offs among them while explicitly accounting for different groups of beneficiaries.