Russian Economy Research Articles

Contemporary Demographic and Economic Processes in Russia: A Statistical Analysis of Their Interaction

The article analyses the relationships between economic and demographic processes in contemporary Russia.Using index analysis, the author concluded that, in 2006–2018, a decline in the working-age population would have reduced, ceteris paribus, almost one-third of the GDP growth rate if the negative impact of this factor had not been fully compensated by an increase in the employment rate of the working-age population during this period. Growth of fertility in 2007–2015 would have led, if the influence of the situation on the labor market was eliminated, to a decrease in the number of employees by 1.2% (caused by the decline in female labor force participation rate), while fertility decrease after 2015 would have led to an increase in this number by 0.4%. Based on this estimation, it was concluded that the changes in fertility can, in the short term, have any significant impact on employment only in those types of economic activity in which the women of reproductive age make up the overwhelming majority of the employees.It has been suggested that the accumulation of socio-psychological prerequisites for a decline in fertility has led the demographic system, both in Western countries and in Russia, into a state of unstable equilibrium. The global financial crises of 2008–2009 and the 2014–2015 financial crisis in Russia upset this equilibrium and launched a mechanism for fertility decline. It is argued that in the period under consideration, the Russian economy adapted to the turbulence of the external environment more successfully than the demographic sphere

Testing Forecasting Properties of Different Approaches to Interval Forecasting (Using the Example of Inflation in Russia)

The paper contains the main results of the study of the quality of interval forecasts based on quantile regression and smooth quantile regression models relative to interval forecasts based on OLS models for Russian inflation. All models in the work were built from the logic of the possibility of forecasting in real-time, in connection with which the authors used inflation that was not cleared of seasonality in the expression month to the same month of the previous year. For each forecast horizon, the authors developed a separate model from lagged values of inflation and regressors so that the known values of lagged variables were always used on the right side of the equation.The authors tested a wide range of specifications – from very compact autoregressive models with one or two lags to wide ones with three additional regressors in addition to inflation lags. The best quality from the point of view of CRPS (Continuous Ranked Probability Score) metrics typical for such a task were the specifications that included the only additional variable – the USD/RUB exchange rate. As the confidence interval narrowed and at longer horizons, quantile and smooth quantile models became increasingly better relative to OLS models according to the CRPS metric.According to the authors, in the presence of inflation targeting, qualitative inflation forecasts can be used by the Bank of Russia in conducting monetary policy when forecasting future inflation dynamics and stress-testing the Russian economy. In general, this can help increase the economic agents’ confidence in the Bank of Russia within the concept of rational expectations

The peculiarity of Pushkin-related texts in modern Russian literature

The topic of the article is relevant and timely, because the work is devoted to the study of works of mainly modern Russian literature. This article uses an integrated approach to the analysis of literary texts, including interpretative, analytical, intertextual and other methods. In the course of the conducted research, some "secondary" works of past periods of the literary process were updated, which in one way or another addressed the legacy of A.S. Pushkin. Empirical material: in the main part of the article, attention is focused on three categories of texts from the late XX–XXIst centuries, which use Pushkin's reminiscences, the Pushkin code, and the Pushkin myth. They are divided into three groups in the article: variations of modern literary references to the novel "Eugene Onegin"; works from the category of "alternative history", suggesting the construction of a different - fictional - fate of Pushkin; the use by modern authors of a kind of "literary franchise" of the legacy of Pushkin. As a result of the analysis, we come to the following conclusions: the importance of Pushkin's legacy for modern culture and literature is enormous. It encourages current artists of the word to bold, but not always productive experiments related to variations of Pushkin's texts, their sequels, parodies,new alternative historical twists and more. We believe that such phenomena as a whole can be considered an important component of the modern literary process, which should help restore interest in the classical heritage among younger generations.

Moral imperatives of modern Russian constitutionalism

The article analyzes the dynamics of moral imperatives of Russian constitutionalism as moral principles or rules, categorical requirements, commandments or norms, according to which the multinational people of Russia build their way of life. The article argues the need to overcome the moral neutrality of public power, enshrined in the Constitution of the Russian Federation in 1993. Particular attention is paid to the change in moral imperatives after the reform of the Constitution of the Russian Federation in 2020. Namely, the love for the Fatherland, based on patriotic education, preservation of the memory of ancestors who passed on to us ideals and faith in God, on the protection of historical truth and all-Russian cultural identity; recognition of continuity in the development of the Russian state; reliance in social development on traditional spiritual and moral values.

SCOPE AND FLIGHT IN LITERARY IMAGES OF OUR TIME: METAMORPHOSES OF THE IDEA

The article is dedicated to the analysis of the idea of flight in fiction and the scope it provides for the representation of a person’s real vision or the symbolic designation of psychological states and understanding. The interpretation of one’s perspective as a personal quality and a property of space or time is also considered. The comparison of literary works is focused on the expressive approach аin the scholarly heritage of the 20th-century outstanding philosophers and aestheticians M. Bakhtin and A. Losev. The novel Aviator by Evgeny Vodolazkin, a representative of modern Russian prose, is analyzed in detail. The ideas and interpretations of flight in the works of R. Bach, A. de Saint-Exupery, and other famous writers of the past century are compared. The dependence of the destinies of those who strive for flight on the historical turns of their time is demonstrated. The main value of the concept of flight for these authors lies in the breadth of human horizons, in the “vigilance of the heart” and “touch to the soul.”

Объективные факторы как элементы формирования социальной культуры сотрудников органов внутренних дел (полиции): социально-философский анализ

The article examines the concept of social objective factors that shape the social culture of internal affairs police officers in modern Russian society. The influence of this group of factors on the professional activities of employees is analyzed, highlighting the features of their manifestations and providing a description of the peculiarities of social communication among employees under the influence of objective factors. A stratification model of modern Russian society is formulated, reflecting the interaction of internal affairs police officers in modern conditions. General characteristics of the normosphere, criminosphere, and marginosphere is provided, along with an identification of the conditions for their formation and the distinctive features of social communication between employees and representatives of each of these spheres. The article pays particular attention to the professional activities of internal affairs employees (police) of the Russian Federation in the field of migration within the context of contemporary realities.

Modern Russian drugs for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases

Neurodegenerative diseases are characterized by progressive death of nerve cells of certain types with concomitant atrophy of the corresponding parts of the spinal cord or brain, which is symptomatically manifested by severe neurological and cognitive impairment. These diseases can manifest at any age and be caused by both genetic predisposition and inflammatory and autoimmune processes. Diseases of this group are a common cause of disability and mortality. Thus, the development of new effective domestic drugs for their treatment is an important task for the healthcare system of the Russian Federation. In this review is devoted to the analysis of Russian original and bioanalog organic and genetically engineered drugs for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases that have been registered in recent years or are currently undergoing clinical trials in Russia.

Analysis of foreign economic relations of Russia’s new regions in 2022 – 2024

The problem of the article lies in the fact that, on the one hand, the economy of Russia’s new territories has suffered from military operations and cannot produce enough products for export, and on the other hand, it has significant potential. The DPR and the LPR, where the Donetsk coal basin is located, are considered the most promising regions. The author states that in order to overcome economic difficulties in the new regions of Russia, it is necessary to actively integrate their economies into the world markets. The author of the article concludes that the new regions of Russia have clear comparative advantages in heavy industry and agriculture. Strengthening foreign economic relations will allow attracting investments to the region, contributing to the further restoration of the infrastructure and economy of the territories under consideration.

Assessing the evolution and perspectives of developing the russian export in current terms: adoption of the 4P model

The study’s relevance is caused due to the Russian export experiences, which acts as a research subject. Goal is to reveal current peculiarities of Russian export. As methodical tool the model of marketing mix was applied, which includes product, price, place, promotion. The analysis has shown: the Russian economy, to promote its export in new terms, uses marketing with new characteristics. The bigger are become the share in it of agricultural and metallurgical products, the share of developing countries among buyers. Promoting the export is provided including through the free trade zones of the Eurasian economic union with the third countries, common trade and cooperation areas with them. State support for import substitution assists to create the production able to export. Scientific contribution of the research results consists in that they expand application of micro-economic marketing mix model on export of national economy as a whole. The results received make possible to study in complex and simultaneously in detail the strengths and weaknesses of export, including the volume and structure of export, price dynamics, currency and financial, transport, trade and diplomatic peculiarities of sale.

Cybersecurity in the financial sector of the economy: necessity and significance

In the age of technological development, the financial sector of the Russian economy was one of the first to actively begin the transition to digitalization of all business processes. Electronic platforms have been used to accelerate financial transactions and improve the quality of financial services. The country's population is increasingly moving towards cashless payments for goods, works and services. Russians now have the opportunity to purchase digital assets via bank card on a variety of electronic resources without leaving home. Nevertheless, along with the pluses of technological innovations in the payments sphere, new threats related to cyberattacks in the financial sector have emerged. Criminal methods today are becoming more sophisticated, with an emphasis on the collection and use of confidential information, gradually nullifying the traditional mechanisms of physical theft of funds. The urgency of developing reliable systems to protect electronic payments and important data requires the consolidation of efforts on the part of both the state and financial organizations, as well as society as a whole. Therefore, in the course of the study, in order to minimize digital threats, the concept of financial cybersecurity is considered, which contributes to the sustainable development of the economy, as well as ensuring the protection of users' interests, in a constantly evolving digital environment.

Threats to the security of banking activities in modern Russian practice

Among other sectors of the Russian economy, the banking sector is one of the most dynamically developing. Consequently, its resistance to various shocks and possible threats will be one of the central points of support for the economic security of the state. Modern statistics show an increase in various types of incidents in the financial sector. Regular monitoring and detailed analysis of fraudulent schemes will minimize the possibility of criminal manipulation, thereby significantly reducing the number of risks and the amount of financial losses.The presented article provides a structural and geographical analysis of incidents in the financial sector recorded in 2023, and a sketch of the modern landscape of possible threats is compiled. The optimal approach to the formation of information and economic security of personal and financial data, in particular, and banking activities in general, involves comprehensive protection measures both from the point of view of the individual user and from the position of representatives of the banking community and the regulator.

Assessing the development of a human-centered economy in Russia: A methodological approach

Aim. To build and sub stantiate the author’s methodology for assessing the development of human-centered economy. In view of the insufficiency of theoretical and empirical research in the field of formation and development of economy for human beings, the demand for this scientific research is actualized in order to better meet human needs.Objectives. To develop a methodology for assessing the development of human-centered economy; to test it on the example of the Russian Federation (RF), including Russian regions.Methodology. The methodological basis of the study was formed by the provisions of the theory of human-centered economy. The methods used include normalization, linear scaling, and “series of information criteria” methods. Visualization of the obtained results was carried out on the basis of spatial modeling software package GeoDA. The information base was the data of the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System, the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Culture of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Sports of the Russian Federation, Rospatent for 2018-2022.Results. The methodology for calculating the integral index of human-centered economy development has been developed. It was calculated by integrating 87 specific indices and eight subindices. The process of research revealed that this economic system is at the initial stages of development with isogressive-regressive trajectory, has insignificantly developed constituent components in the form of creative and cognitive spheres.Conclusions. The proposed methodology provides a basis for further scientific research in similar studies, as well as for the formation of targeted measures to support the challenging spheres of human activity and human-centered economy as a whole.

Sustainability of the real sector of the Russian economy: Economic security and sanctions realities

Aim. To investigate the essence of the real sector of the Russian economy and identify the features of its impact on achieving economic security under sanctions.Objectives. To determine the essence of the real sector of the economy and assess its contribution to the stability of the national economy under sanctions; to identify the stages of development of the real sector of the Russian economy; to form an approach to regulating the real sector in the context of achieving economic security.Methodology. The research uses methods of comparative, structural, functional, and historical (retrospective) analysis, as well as tools of systemic and institutional approaches.Results. The real sector of the economy includes the production of goods and services, its functioning is associated with the creation of new value. This distinguishes it from the virtual and financial sectors where real, tangible goods are not created and where, in fact, the product formed in the real sector is redistributed. In crisis conditions, the developed real sector serves as the basis for the functioning of the economy and the satisfaction of basic economic needs, its stability determines national economic security.Conclusions. In modern conditions, characterized by sanctions pressure on Russia from unfriendly countries, the real sector of the economy plays an important role in ensuring the stability of the country’s economy as a whole. Its dynamics largely determines protection against traditional and new (sanctions-related) threats and risks to economic security. At the same time, there is a need for government support and regulation of the development of the real sector, which is associated with many different difficulties. To increase the effectiveness of this regulation, a permanent search for a balance between the use of planned and market instruments is required, the development of a mixed system of economic regulation that combines the tools of market and planned approaches. This will make it possible for the state to flexibly and adaptively manage the process of ensuring national economic security.

Traditions of classical literature in the work of modern Russian and Tatar writers from the Republic of Tatarstan

Traditions of classical literature in the work of modern Russian and Tatar writers from the Republic of Tatarstan

The Modern Institution of the Prosecutor's Refusal to File Charges against a Suspect: Crisis of Authenticity of the Russian Criminal Process

The paper examines the issues of effectiveness and viability of the modern Russian institution of prosecutor’s refusal to bring charges. The author substantiates the conclusion that it is formed to a greater extent in the spirit of Anglo-Saxon legal logic, while neither normative nor doctrinal correlation with the basic principles of domestic criminal proceedings has been implemented. The legal institution in question is a vivid example of conceptual, axiological legal contradictions in the Russian criminal process, which makes it difficult to clearly define its modern model and the vector of its further development. For methodological purposes, the modern Russian institution of the prosecutor’s refusal to charge was analyzed in relation to the trial with the participation of jurors. This made it possible to more fully identify the relevant shortcomings and identify areas for improvement. As a result, the following conclusions were substantiated: it would be advisable to deprive the prosecutor’s refusal to bring charges of binding force for the Russian court. At the same time, the adversarial foundation of the trial is not limited here in any way, since the prosecutor should have the opportunity to convey his position to the court following the results of the judicial investigation. In general, the proposed approach will act as a reliable guarantee of the rights of the victim, including access to justice, and serve to ensure the constitutional right of Russians to participate in the administration of justice, strengthen the independence and completeness of the judiciary. As a result, using the example of the institute under study, we can talk about the need to return to the authenticity of Russian criminal proceedings in the spirit of continental legal traditions.

Book Review: Wisdom in Christian Tradition: The Patristic Roots of Modern Russian Sophiology

Book Review: Wisdom in Christian Tradition: The Patristic Roots of Modern Russian Sophiology

Ценностные ориентации в семье: социально-психологический анализ

<p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Objective</strong>. Socio-psychological analysis of value orientations in the main subsystems of the modern family (marital, parent-child, sibling). <br><strong>Background</strong>. The scientific literature notes methodological heterogeneity in the study of intra-family values with the actual request of practice to determine the consistency of value orientations in various subsystems of the family. This becomes especially relevant in the modern historical situation for a deeper understanding of the processes of value-semantic integration and differentiation within the family. <br><strong>Study design.</strong> The differences in actual and reflexive values in the dyads of married couples, parents and children, and siblings were investigated. The validity of differences was tested using statistical criteria for comparing mean (Student, Wilcoxon, Mann-Whitney). To analyze pairwise similarity, correlations of value profiles (po-Spearman, r-Pearson), indices of value-orientation congruence in actual (VOC-A) and reflective (VOC-R) assessments were calculated. <br><strong>Participants</strong>. The study included 4 samples: married couples (<em>n</em> = 58 couples), college youth (<em>n</em> = 193; 44,6% males; 55,4% females), 3 generations of women from the same family (<em>n</em> = 20 triads), and respondents with a sibling (<em>n</em> = 63; 38% males; 62% females). <br><strong>Measurements</strong>. The method “Value orientations-36” (modification of Sh. Schwartz's method) (Kunitsyna, 2005). In the sample of couples and three generations of women actual values were measured. In the sample of young people and respondents with siblings − actual (answers for themselves) and reflexive (young people answered for their mothers, and respondents for their siblings). Adapted PEA questionnaire (Volkova, 2006) to assess the quality of relationships in couples and siblings. <br><strong>Results.</strong> The specificity of value orientations in family subsystems (marital, parent-child, sibling) was revealed. Thus, the differences in family couples reflect the persisting social perception of the division of marital roles: men value independence and self-assertion more, and women value interpersonal relations. Differences in children's actual and reflexive evaluations testify to the selective intergenerational continuity of value orientations in the family. In the three-generation sample, it was found that the dyads of mothers and daughters are closer to each other in terms of value profiles than grandmothers and granddaughters; the dyads of older and middle-generation women are most similar to each other. The values of value-orientation unity in the dyad are higher with higher satisfaction with the child's upbringing. Differences in the values of siblings are related to the values of achievement and ethical and aesthetic orientation. Profile correlations show the similarity of the general structure of values in all subsystems. The indices VOC-A and VOC-R express the degree of value integration in family dyads and are similar in content to the intercorrelations of individual value hierarchies. <br><strong>Conclusions</strong>. In vertical (parent-child) and horizontal (marital and sibling) dyads, the similarity of value orientations is quite high. Comparison of the profiles of family dyads from unrelated samples allows us to speak about the general consistency and selective continuity of value orientations in the modern Russian family. The general orientation of value orientations of spouses, parents and children, and siblings is characterized, on the one hand, by a high importance of family values (in such aspects as the safety of relatives and trustworthiness of interpersonal relations), and, on the other hand, by a pronounced focus on independence and achievement. This configuration can be a source of contradictions and disunity of family members. At the same time, intergenerational and intragenerational cohesion is supported by the continuity of values of moral orientation and normative behavior, with no differences in all dyads.</p>

Censorship of Agitprop in the Upper Volga press in the 1920s

Importance. The censorship of periodicals in the Upper Volga region during the New Economic Policy years is considered. The research of Soviet propaganda remains relevant in the context of studying the history of the USSR, political communication and mass media. Even in modern Russia, there is a request for the development of a cultural level using the mass media, in the implementation of which the experience of a century ago can help. The purpose of the research is to examine the mechanism for implementing the censorship policy of the Soviet state in the Upper Volga region using the example of the work of agitprop.Materials and Methods. Methods of system analysis, principles of historicism and scientific objectivity are used. The archival materials stored in the Russian State Archive of Socio-Political History are used.Results and Discussion. The country needed urgent and fairly profound cultural changes, and this had to be done not only by methods of combating illiteracy, but also by propaganda, including in the periodical press. Newspapers are a cheap and easy way to disseminate information, but in an illiterate country it is not very easy to use. The party’s propaganda department had to deal with this phenomenon.Conclusion. Conclusions about the significant intervention of the Agitprop department in regional periodicals in order to form an ideologically correct understanding of the world and the political situation in the country are formulated.

Grammatical systematicity of request models in the modern Russian

The article analyzes the grammatical systematicity of models of request expression in modern Russian language. The relevance is determined by the need to identify the grammatical systematicity of the use of syntactic models of different types in expressing a request in Russian speech practice. The aim of the paper is to study syntactic models of request expression in modern Russian language in the aspect of the theory of communicative-pragmatic complexes. The study is conducted on the material representing different contexts of request usage: samples from modern Russian plays by famous playwrighters – A. Vampilov, N. Lakutin, E. Shabalina and A. Yablonskaya, as well as samples from the National Corpus of the Russian Language (NCLR) are used. Research methods: systematic, comparative, functional, contextual, structural-grammatical. Special attention is paid to the phenomenon of systematicity of syntactic models. The peculiarity of expressing the request by the models of sentences on the purpose of utterance – inductive, interrogative and narrative – is shown. The authors come to the conclusion about the peculiarity of linguistic conceptualization of request in three communicative situations – everyday request, official request, request when communicating in an unfamiliar environment, which differ in their communicative role and situations of use. The regularities of use of three types of sentences on the purpose of utterance depending on communicative situations are established. It is shown that the model of inductive sentences serves as the basic and most common grammatical form of expressing a request and is usually used in the communicative situation of a household request. Due to its special communicative characteristics, this model can also be used in the situation of communication with strangers, and with the use of grammatical extensions - and in some situations of official communication. The second most frequent type - interrogative sentences - is usually used when addressing strangers; as a rule, it is accompanied by politeness markers. Models of narrative sentences are used much less frequently than sentences of the other two types; they are most often used in situations of official communication.

Организация наставничества при реализации программы «Орлята России»

The article presents the results of the discussion of the problem of development of children’s movement in the context of the all-Russian program “Orlyata Rossii”, which took place within the framework of the All-Russian scientific and practical conference “Development of children’s movement in modern Russia” on May 29, 2024. Teachers of the A.I. Herzen State Pedagogical University of Russia, representatives of the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation, the All-Russian Children’s Center “Orlyonok” exchanged experience in implementing the program for primary school students “Orlyata Rossii”, as well as organizing mentoring with younger students to develop their social activity. The most significant areas of work of the conference sectional platforms are highlighted, a discussion format for the discussion on the organization of mentoring and work with students of psychological and pedagogical classes is considered and proposed.