Keynesian Research Articles

Is Keynesianism still increasingly relevant? The importance of the economic multiplier

Cyclically, the debate on Keynes’ economic policies reemerge. The economic impact of the pandemic caused by COVID-19 has relaunched the discussion about the importance of Keynesian policies, the multipliers effects, and their impact on stimulating economies. This paper aims to analyze the importance and relevance of the Keynesian multiplier before the pandemic, in a period without experiencing exceptional aggregate shocks. The main focus of the research is to examine the shortcomings of the public investment multiplier, which plays a central role in Keynesian theory. Despite the undeniable relevance of the concept, the issue is to understand the extent to which the multiplier is still relevant in specific contexts. The research presents empirical evidence which suggests that the effects of public investment depend on structural characteristics of economies specifically trade liberalization, the dimension of internal markets, the question of countries having the freedom to issue their currency, and the issue of currencies being accepted as an international reserve. A sample of 35 OECD countries was used for the period 2010–2018. The Keynesian public investment multiplier was calculated for several countries and the obtained values were related to various correlations carried out to assess the relationship between public investment, national income, and specific characteristics of the economies to which the multipliers are sensitive. The results obtained contrast in terms of short-term and long-term impacts so, is at least dubious, that one can rely on Keynesian public policies to boost economies at least in the absence of substantial shocks to aggregate demand.

Paul Davidson (1930–2024) and the founding of Post Keynesian economics

Paul Davidson was a critical figure in the preservation of John Maynard Keynes’s ideas, sticking with them when they were out of fashion. He was also key to the survival of the Post Keynesian school. Davidson endorsed Keynes’s liquidity preference theory of interest, and he emphasized fundamental uncertainty as a central feature of economic reality, essential to making sense of a monetary economy. His greatest legacy is the Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, the intellectual home for a generation of Post Keynesian economists. Without his efforts, the heterodox economics community would be significantly smaller than it is now.

The Impact of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth in Malaysia

This study experimentally investigates the relationship between economic growth and government spending in Malaysia from 1990 to 2022 using time series data. The study analyzes the impact of total government spending on economic growth, covering housing, healthcare, social services, military, and education while identifying which sector has the most effect on economic growth. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method is employed to evaluate the effects of these expenditures. The findings demonstrate that, in the short run, all variables significantly affect economic growth, hence refuting the null hypothesis. However, only trade openness and labor spending positively impact long-term economic growth. Research indicates that housing and education expenditures are the primary long-term drivers of economic growth in Malaysia. The data suggest that the Malaysian economy contradicts the Keynesian theory, as less government spending appears to improve the real GDP growth rate. The inverse relationship between government spending and economic growth indicates that government expenditure may not be the primary catalyst for economic growth, hence supporting Wagner’s law. These findings provide policymakers with essential insights for optimizing government spending to improve economic development results.

ANALISIS PENGARUH BELANJA MODAL, PENYERTAAN MODAL, DAN PERTUMBUHAN PENDUDUK TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI

Economic development can be observed through the economic growth of a region. Capital expenditure, local government capital investment, and population growth can have different impacts on economic growth. This study aims to determine the influence of capital expenditure, local government capital investment, and population growth on economic growth. Secondary data on variables were obtained from BPS and DJPK from regencies/cities in the provinces of Banten, DI Yogyakarta, and Central Java for the period 2012-2021, using the multiple linear regression analysis method. The findings of the study align with Keynesian Theory, indicating that capital expenditure has a significant positive effect on economic growth. In contrast, local government capital investment shows a significant negative direction toward economic growth, which is inconsistent with Harrod-Domar Theory. Meanwhile, population growth has a significant positive effect on economic growth.

Idiosyncratic Income Risk and Aggregate Fluctuations

We study how the presence of idiosyncratic income risk affects aggregate fluctuations in the absence of binding borrowing constraints and/or cyclical income risk. Its impact is shown to be captured by the response of a consumption-weighted average of individual consumption risk to aggregate shocks. We analyze two example economies—an endowment economy and a New Keynesian economy—and show that, under plausible calibrations, the impact of idiosyncratic income risk on aggregate fluctuations is quantitatively small since most of the changes in consumption risk are concentrated among poorer (low-consumption) households. (JEL E12, E21, E24, E32)

Optimal Short-Term Inflation Rate Forecasting Model in Kenya: in Depth Analysis

Purpose: The Kenya economy experienced an increase in the price of basic commodities, increased unemployment rates and consequently reduced real wage levels due to job cuts. An accurate forecast of this unprecedented inflation rate could have cushioned the Kenyan population from its effects. Uncertainty over future inflation forecasting has caused detrimental and negative impact not only globally but also in the Kenyan economy. Combining several techniques of forecasting is an instinctual way to improve prediction performance as the limitations of one method are compensated by the strength of the other model. The general objective of the study was to develop an optimal model of forecasting short term inflation rate in Kenya. The specific objectives were to establish models of forecasting short term inflation rate using SARIMA, GARCH and hybrid SARIMA-GARCH family Models, select optimal model amongst the three models and Predict 12 months ahead inflation rate using the optimal model. Scope of the study from 2005 January to 2024 July. The study was anchored on monetary theory of inflation, Keynesian theory of inflation as well as rationale expectation theory of inflation. Methodology: Data was sourced from KNBS and CBK. The study was guided by positivism research philosophy. Explanatory research design was used in this study. Target population was 230 monthly observations. Sample and sampling techniques used was time series. PACF, ACF Dfuller, Kpss test, Philips perron test indicated the data was stationary after 1ST differencing. Findings: Statistic validation test results indicated SARIMA’s (1,1,1)(1,1,)12 adjusted 2 R was perfectly 1 indicating all variations in squared residuals were explained by lagged residuals. P- value for lagged squared residuals were significant at (0.00). F-statisticvalue was significant (0.020) suggesting overall model fit. Model stability test AR roots polynomial lied outside the unit circle. eGarch(1,1) model with lowest aic -0.534 was best in Garch Family models. Hybrid Sarima((1,1,1),(1,1,1) eGARCH(1,1) was identified. Comparison of Sarima(1,1,1)(1,1,1)12, eGARCH (1,1) and Hybrid Sarima((1,1,1),(1,1,1)12 eGARCH(1,1) using forecast accuracy revealed that hybrid model was the optimal model with lowest MAE 0.166 and RMSE 0.259. Diagnostic checks The Ljung- Box test (LL) and Q2 indicated non-significant autocorrelation p- value were greater than 05% indicating that the models residuals were white noise. The DOF/GED parameter (4.144466*, 1.101958, 6.977499) represented the degrees of freedom for the tdistribution and the coefficients where significant at 0.05% meaning the model’s assumptions for normal distributions were met. The coefficients of AR Normal 0.048140, T-Student −0.031854, GED −0.02396 and MA Normal 0.055167 ,T-Student 0.059645, GED 0.051390 terms were significant at 5%. Recommendations: The results implied that the model predicted a decrease in the Kenya’s inflation rate for the next 12 months. The study recommended that inflation rate would be hovering below an average rate of 10 within the next 12 months with high volatility up to July 2025 and policy makers should use this prediction for planning in order to maintain Kenya’s macroeconomic stability. Policy makers were also advised to use the hybrid model to forecast short term inflation rate 12 months ahead and in future years. The benefits of the study were added knowledge of hybridizing to researchers and to policy makers. This study therefore provided better inflation forecasts (Kenya) to be used for strategical planning for short -term effects of inflation by the government.

Impulse Response of External Debt Stock and Gross Capital Formation on Economic Growth in Bangladesh: Var Model, Granger Causality and Variance Decomposition Analysis

Purpose: This study employs an annual time series data set from 1987 to 2018 gathered from the World Development Indicators (WDI), 2021 to analyze the properties of external debt stock on financial progress(proxied by economic growth) in Bangladesh. Methodology: The objectives are determined using a variety of econometric techniques, including the Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root test, Var model, Johansen co integration test, Impulse Response Function (IRF), Variance decomposition function, and Granger causality test. The get the result of the Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root test which indicates the stationarity of all the variables at the initial difference. Findings: There is an expectant impact on financial progress (proxied by Gross Domestic Product Per capita) in Bangladesh, according to the short run Var model with the two independent variables External Debt Stock (proxied by public debt) and second lag of Gross Fixed Capital. Block Exogeneity/ Wald Tests and Johansen Co-integration test show that both lnEDS and lnGCF have a strong constructive impact on Bangladesh's financial progress in the short as well as long run. Pairwise, Granger Causality also indulgence the Bi-directional causality between lnGDPPC and lnEDS and Uni-directional causality from lnGCF to lnGDPPC. The influences of lnEDS and lnGCF on lnGDPPC are rising in the long term, showing that both variables are significantly exogenous on the dependent variable. Practical Implication: Bangladesh is now a fast-growing economy with several mega projects for infrastructural, human, and technological advancements such as roads, train, power, education, health, information technology, gas, and energy. External debt service and gross capital formation are crucial for Bangladeshi economic growth. The government should establish a priority aim for long-term economic growth by implementing suitable measures to control, maintain, regulate, and stabilize inflation at a reasonable level. Originality/Value: In a developing country, Savings within the country are insufficient to support investment for financial progress, according to the dual-gap theory and the Keynesian theory of public debt. As a result, bridging this gap for the required level of investment and achieving targeted economic growth will necessitate a bigger inflow of foreign aid or external borrowings. That’s why this study is very important. Limitations: Some limitations of this study include the absence of recent data with the factors. Also numerous factors can influence Bangladesh economic growth for instances, remittances, exchange rates and foreign direct investment all have a crucial impact on GDP growth.

Effect of CO2 emissions, Renewable Energy Consumption and General Government Final Consumption Spending on Moroccan Economic Growth: ARDL Approach

The empirical studies have shown that there is difference in association among depend and independent variables. Supported by framework’s Keynesian theory of EG (Economic Growth), present research aims to examine how economic growth (EG) Morocco is influenced by REC (renewable energy consumption), general government spending, and CO2 emissions. This research used the method of least squares ordinary assess the short- and long-term relationships between the model's variables, using an autoregressive approach for stationarity and distributed degradation. For the years 1993 to 2020, the research has gathered yearly data from WDI. According that empirical results, none independent variable were stationary at the first difference, but dependent variable was. A long-term association between the independent and dependent variables was shown by the model simulation utilizing the bound test. The White test revealed that there was no evidence of heteroscedasticity in the model residuals. The residuals have a normal distribution, as determined by the Shapiro-Wilk test, and the model exhibits stability throughout the time span with no structural fractures. The study's conclusions suggest that while the use of renewable energy sources and carbon dioxide emissions both exhibit notable positive trends, government spending on public goods has a substantial adverse association with economic growth.

Out-of-Pocket Expenditures for Health: A Case Study

Background of the Study: Health is a prime component in rural population who uses their muscle power for doing economic activities. Meanwhile according to the Economic Survey of India’s 2021 report, India was among the 10 worst performing countries in terms of prioritising health in government budgets, at both state and central levels. India was placed or ranked in 67th in the list of 189 countries in Out of Pocket Expenditure per capita in PPP (in $) for 2018. World Health Organisation report (March 2022) stated that high of Out-Of-Pocket Expenditure (OOPE) on health is impoverishing some 55 million Indians annually, with over 17 per cent households incurring catastrophic levels of health expenditures every year. The Economic Survey 2023 reported that the share of government expenditure in Total Health Expenditure (THE) has increased over time from 28.6% in financial year 2014 to 40.6% in Financial Year2019. However, OOPE is still higher at 48.2% of the total expenditure. Objectives: To explore the Out of Pocket Expenditure (OOPE) for health in India, Interstate and rural villages of Theni district, Tamil Nadu Methodology: Purposive non random sampling was used to reach the sample element. Sample elements or respondents were from rural Theni District. Sample size was 300. Data was collected using an interview schedule in the catchment area of Primary Health Centre, taluk hospital and district healthcare hospital. Interview was conducted in Tamil and then the interview output was transcribed and translated into English, followed by a descriptive analysis. Ordinary Least Square estimation was used to find the implications of individual income on pocket out expenditure for health. Findings of the Study: The secondary data from the website of World Health Organisation and from the reports of National Health Accounts reflects a difference in data information for every concerned period at least two to three per cent exist. The interstate data information for the period 2019 to 2020 revealed that the spending from government health care expenditure and out of pocket expenditure is not equal to total health care expenditure. Hence, the researcher made an attempt to explore the out of pocket expenditure among the rural population and their willingness to spend from their pocket. Furthermore, the impact of annual income and annual healthcare expenditure is examined by simple linear regression analysis, for to understand the role of income in shaping healthcare spending behaviour. The R Square value is very poor, and reflects the role of explanatory variable income is not impacting the out of pocket health care expenditure. The Keynesian theory of psychological law of consumption is invalid in out of pocket healthcare expenditure with respect to income of the respondents. 13 percentages of respondents were willing to do out of pocket expenditure for their health ailing. The 39.7percentages of respondents were disagreeing to do out of pocket expenditure for their health. Conclusion: Overall, this study emphasizes the importance of understanding out-of-pocket health expenditures is increasing in rural (feckless management of public healthcare) with attitude of unwilling to pay from their pocket because of existing zero priced healthcare system, which is available in their near locality. Policy makers needs to concentrate on enhancing the healthcare supply such as medical personals, drugs, lab facility, beds, and in general in all aspects for to cater the demand of rural inhabitants and protect them from pushing into impoverishment.

Analysis of an Optimal Short-Term Inflation Rate Forecasting Model in Kenya Case of SARIMA Modelling

Purpose: Inflation has soared to multi decade highs prompting rapid monetary policy tightening and squeezing household budgets. Combining several techniques of forecasting is an instinctual way to improve prediction performance as the limitations of one method are compensated by the strength of the other model. It is real that uncertainty over future inflation forecasting has caused detrimental and negative impact not only globally but also in the Kenyan economy. The general objective of the study was to develop an optimal model of forecasting short term inflation rate in Kenya. The specific objectives were to establish models of forecasting short term inflation rate using SARIMA, GARCH and hybrid SARIMA-GARCH family Models. Select an optimal model amongst the three models. Predict 12 months ahead inflation rate using the optimal model. Scope of the study covered was 2005m1 to 2024m4.This study was anchored on monetary theory of inflation, Keynesian theory of inflation as well as rationale expectation theory of inflation. Data was sourced from KNBS, CPI monthly from January 2005 to April 2024. Methodology: The study was guided by positive research design philosophy. Explanatory research design was used in this study. Target population was 230 monthly observations in Kenya from January 2005 to April 2024.PACF and ACF were used to check autocorrelation in the data. Diagnostic checks The Ljung-Box test (LL) and Q2 indicated non-significant autocorrelation p- value were greater than 05% indicating that the models residuals were white noise. Findings: The DOF/GED parameter (4.144466*, 1.101958, 6.977499) represented the degrees of freedom for the t-distribution and the coefficients where significant at 0.05% meaning the model's assumptions for normal distributions were met. The following models SARIMA (1,0,1)(2,1,0)12 (Aic133.99), GARCH (1, 1) model ( aic 1.63). Hybrid, SARIMA((1,0,1),(2,1,0)) gjrGARCH(1,1) model(aic 1.34) were identified and estimated. Implication of these results were that in terms of the aic hybrid SARIMA gjrGARCH model had the lowest (aic 1.33) and was chosen as the optimal model for forecasting Kenya’s inflation rate amongst the three models. The coefficients of AR Normal 0.048140, T-Student −0.031854, GED −0.02396 and MA Normal 0.055167, T-Student 0.059645, GED 0.051390 terms were significant at 5%. The results implied that the model predicted a decrease in the Kenya’s inflation rate for the next 12 months. In terms of forecast accuracy the lowest (RMSE) and (MAE) criterion the optimal model for forecasting short term inflation rate in Kenya was hybrid SARIMA((1,0,1),(2,1,0)) gjrGARCH(1,1) with lowest coefficient (MAE) of 11.45 and (RMSE) of 12.84. The study recommended that inflation rate would be hovering below an average rate of 10 within the next 12 months up to April 2025 and policy makers should use this prediction for planning in order to maintain Kenya’s macroeconomic stability. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Policy makers were also advised to use the hybrid model to forecast short term inflation rate 12 months ahead in future years. The benefits of the study was added knowledge of hybridizing (methodological) to researchers and theoretical to policy makers.

Impact of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Volatility

Purpose: The general objective of the study was to analyze the impact of monetary policy on stock market volatility. Methodology: The study adopted a desktop research methodology. Desk research refers to secondary data or that which can be collected without fieldwork. Desk research is basically involved in collecting data from existing resources hence it is often considered a low cost technique as compared to field research, as the main cost is involved in executive’s time, telephone charges and directories. Thus, the study relied on already published studies, reports and statistics. This secondary data was easily accessed through the online journals and library. Findings: The findings reveal that there exists a contextual and methodological gap relating to the impact of monetary policy on stock market volatility. Preliminary empirical review revealed that monetary policy exerts significant influence on stock market volatility through various channels such as interest rate adjustments, quantitative easing, and forward guidance. It highlighted that the timing and clarity of policy announcements play a crucial role in shaping market reactions, with unexpected shifts often leading to heightened volatility. Global interconnectedness amplified these effects, underscoring the need for coordinated policy responses. Behavioral factors also contributed, as investor sentiment and market psychology could magnify volatility independently of economic fundamentals. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for effective policy design and market stability amidst evolving financial landscapes. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH, Rational Expectations Theory and Keynesian Economics may be used to anchor future studies on monetary policy on stock market volatility. Recommendations from the study included integrating behavioral finance models into economic frameworks to enhance predictive accuracy. It advocated for clearer and more consistent central bank communications to align market expectations with policy actions, reducing uncertainty-driven volatility. Collaborative efforts among central banks were emphasized to manage international spillovers and enhance global financial stability. Adaptive policy frameworks were proposed to respond flexibly to changing market conditions while promoting regulatory measures to safeguard against excessive risk-taking. These recommendations aimed to foster a stable financial environment supportive of sustainable economic growth and market confidence.

‘Canadianism,’ the Welfare State, and policy growth

This paper will explore Canadianism and its relationship to Universal healthcare. Canadianism, a term derived for the purpose of this text, is used to conceptualize an ‘Idea’ born out of Canadian identity and Economic Nationalism during commonwealth movements of the later 20th century. The Idea is studied to understand how Canadian civil society favors Universal systems, particularly in this paper healthcare, over private initiative. This paper will assess the roots of the privatization debate and argue the rivalrous nature between Canadianism and New Public Management [NPM]. A key deliberation will be had on the significant role that ethics plays in Canadianism, and how this had success in limiting the influence of NPM on Healthcare. This paper will also examine a current ‘privatization’ case, Bill C-60, and its potential threat to Keynesian Economics’ opportunity-for-all approach to healthcare. A second key deliberation will be had on the concept of ‘Trust,’ how it informs Canadianism and why this makes Bill C-60’s discourse convoluted. Conclusively, a discussion will be had on the issues with Canadianism in healthcare discourse through considering semantics and policy growth. The limits of Canadianism will be briefly highlighted. This paper finds that Canadian is essential to comprehend when considering why healthcare reform in Canada is difficult to manage.

A Monetary and Fiscal History of the United States, 1961–2021 – Alan S. Blinder’s reviewed by James L. Caton

In the realm of economics, fostering debates and embracing diverse opinions is paramount for driving innovation and achieving optimal outcomes. Alan S. Blinder’s seminal work, “A Monetary and Fiscal History of the United States, 1961-2021,” published in October 2022, exemplifies this ethos. Blinder, a renowned economist and Professor at Princeton University, draws from his extensive experience, including roles as Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board and a member of President Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, to offer a unique perspective rooted in Keynesian economics. Through his book, Blinder not only enhances our comprehension of various economic concepts but also underscores the significance of critical thinking and vigorous debate in shaping public research.

Business cycles in Colombia: stylized facts

The purpose of this article is to examine the economic cycles in Colombia and to empirically corroborate the fulfillment of nine stylized facts documented in the specialized international literature. For this purpose, the retropolated series 1975-2013 and the series 2005:1-2022:4 of the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) were analyzed using the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Thus, the occurrence of four economic cycles is recorded between 1975 and 2013 with an average duration of 9.3 years with an expansionary phase of 5.0 years and a contractionary phase of 5.3 years. Similarly, between 2005:1 and 2022:4 there were three cycles with an average duration of 21.7 quarters, with an expansionary phase of 14.7 quarters and a contractionary phase of 7.0 quarters. It should also be said that the cyclical fluctuations of employment and unemployment are closely related to effective demand and domestic demand in accordance with Keynesian theory; for example, the positive correlation between the real GDP cycle and the implicit GDP deflator cycle suggests that the cycles were not due to shifts in the aggregate production function as the dominant theory stresses, but to shifts in the aggregate demand function.

An Analytical Study on Household Income and Consumption Patterns in District Bagh, Azad Jammu & Kashmir

The research is an experimental exploration of the domestic income and expenditure in district Bagh AJ&K (Pakistan). The study utilized primary data of March 2020 gathered through a well-developed cum comprehensive questionnaire. It comprised a sample of 400 households selected through random sampling technique. The outcome was analyzed by applying “ordinary least square” (OLS) “regression model” and ANOVA test. Results of the study showed that relationship between income of household and domestic consumption is positive and significant. It means that the increase in the domestic income also increases their consumption. This result also contented the Keynesian theory on consumption. There is no significant impact occurred to take the gender of household and consumption. So, this study omits this variable from the model. There was a positive and substantial relationship existed between household age and domestic consumption. Households’ education and domestic consumption also had a constructive and meaningful relation. It means that educated people spend more as compare to less educated. There was a negative and noteworthy relationship existed between family structure and household consumption. Family size and household consumption had been also completely correlated. Nonetheless, the research determined that both economic factors and demographic features affect household consumption pattern in district Bahg AJ&K. Policy makers should formulate policies designed to increase the income level of employees for enhancing their buying power, decreasing their deficit and to increase their saving which would definitely ensure a sophisticated living standard of the study area.

Assessing Fiscal Policies’ Impact on Economic Recovery in African Nations Amid Financial and Pandemic Crises

This study investigates the impact of government fiscal policies on economic recovery in African nations amidst financial and pandemic crises. Through regression analysis and empirical evidence synthesis, it explores the dynamics of taxation revenue, non-taxation revenue, and government capital formation expenditure in driving resilience and growth. The findings underscore the critical role of effective fiscal policies in navigating crises, highlighting the need for evidence-based strategies to enhance economic recovery and development. Theoretical underpinnings rooted in Keynesian Economic Theory provide a robust framework for understanding the efficacy of fiscal interventions in fostering sustainable growth. The study contributes to theoretical refinement and offers practical insights for policymakers seeking to formulate adaptive fiscal strategies tailored to the unique socio-economic dynamics of African countries. Recommendations include prioritizing revenue generation strategies, enhancing tax compliance, optimizing non-tax revenue sources, and strategic investments in capital formation to foster long-term growth and resilience.

Inflation targeting bands and the short-run output-inflation trade-off in a new Keynesian economics perspective: evidence from South Africa

ABSTRACT The paper determines the effects of the 3–6% inflation targeting band (IT) band on short-run output-inflation trade-off in South Africa compared to inflation above 6%. In addition, we determine the region with the highest trade-off within the target band relative to its midpoint. The threshold model indicates that output-inflation tradeoff is higher within the existing IT band than above it. Within the 3–6% IT band, a higher output-inflation tradeoff is achieved when inflation is within the 3–4.5% IT band than in the 4.5–6% IT band. A 3–4.5% band will lead to bigger real effects.

Economic Policies and Their Influence on Livestock Market Dynamics

Purpose: The general objective of the study was to explore the economic policies and their influence on livestock market dynamics. Methodology: The study adopted a desktop research methodology. Desk research refers to secondary data or that which can be collected without fieldwork. Desk research is basically involved in collecting data from existing resources hence it is often considered a low cost technique as compared to field research, as the main cost is involved in executive’s time, telephone charges and directories. Thus, the study relied on already published studies, reports and statistics. This secondary data was easily accessed through the online journals and library. Findings: The findings reveal that there exists a contextual and methodological gap relating to economic policies and their influence on livestock market dynamics. Preliminary empirical review revealed that fiscal policies, such as subsidies and tax incentives, play a crucial role in reducing production costs and stabilizing market supply. Likewise, monetary policies, including interest rate adjustments, influence investment and innovation within the sector. Trade policies, such as tariffs and free trade agreements, affect market competitiveness and access to international markets. Regulatory policies concerning animal health and environmental protection ensure product quality and consumer confidence. The study emphasizes the need for balanced and well-designed policies across all these areas to support the sustainable growth of the livestock industry. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Keynesian Economic Theory, Neoclassical Economic Theory and Institutional Economic Theory may be used to anchor future studies on economic policies and their influence on livestock market dynamics. The study significantly advances theoretical understanding by elucidating the intricate relationship between economic policies and livestock market dynamics. It recommends further exploration into the interplay of fiscal, monetary, trade, and regulatory policies to develop comprehensive models predicting market behavior accurately. Practically, the study advises livestock producers to adopt adaptive management practices, staying informed about policy changes and implementing flexible business strategies. Industry associations are urged to disseminate policy information and support farmers in navigating shifts. From a policy standpoint, coherence, targeting, and responsiveness to sectoral needs are underscored, advocating for a holistic approach to policy design. Fiscal policies should support short-term stability and long-term sustainability, targeting critical areas like feed costs and infrastructure. Monetary policies should balance investment stimulation with inflation control, while trade and regulatory policies should negotiate balanced agreements and stringent standards to ensure competitiveness and safety in the global market. Keywords: Economic Policies, Livestock Market Dynamics, Fiscal Policies, Monetary Policies, Trade Policies, Adaptive Management Practices, Industry Associations, Policy Coherence

Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from Zambia

Purpose: This study examines the short-run and long-run impact of the expansionary fiscal policy on economic growth in Zambia from 1991 to 2021. Materials and Methods: The study employs the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Models to examine the short-run and long-run impact of total public expenditure, total tax revenue and total public debt time series data on the gross domestic product (GDP) of Zambia from 1991 to 2021. The Keynesian theory informed our study, which presupposes that the unemployment problem might be solved by boosting government spending on consumption and that government spending was an exogenous factor that contributed to economic growth (Keynes, 1936; Singh & Sahni, 1984). Findings: Both the VECM and ARDL Models show the existence of statistically significant long-run cointegration among public expenditure, external debt, tax revenue and GDP. Specifically, VECM estimates show that for a 1% increase, Tax revenues have a positive long-run significant effect on Zambia’s economic growth of 3.36%, while external debt and public expenditure have significant negative effects on the economic growth of 1.17% and 0.003% in Zambia respectively. The ARDL model estimates indicate that, in the short run, an increase in tax revenue of 1% increases GDP growth by 1.92%, while a rise in government expenditure and external debt by 1% results in a decline in Zambia’s economic growth by 0.003% and 6.14% respectively. Implications to Theory, Practice and Policy: Given the foregoing findings, the therefore study recommends that the Government of Zambia should widen the tax base to mobilize more tax revenues and reduce the budget deficits emanating from high government expenditures. External public debt should also be reduced.

A Keynesian Perspective to the Economy

In this paper, I examine the relationship between social welfare programs and unemployment. Unemployment and welfare are two of the most significant topics in macroeconomics, with many disagreeing on the relationship between the two. A commonly held belief, particularly in the United States, is that too generous of a welfare state discourages and disincentives people from looking for work, leading to continuous unemployment. However, my findings indicate that increased government spending on social welfare programs can actually improve employment rates. Looking at past studies conducted by economists in England, Germany, and the United States, I find that social assistance programs are beneficial at decreasing unemployment in the long term. Such programs allow workers to find and retain jobs for which they are prepared by allowing for increased training, increased search periods, and increased educational attainment for children. This research is heavily influenced by Keynesian theories and ideas that government should play an active role in the economy to reduce unemployment. While Keynes looked primarily at direct relief assistance for people in times of economic downturn, my findings expand on the idea and look at alternative policies that can be used to reduce unemployment continuously.