Economic Exchange Rate Research Articles

One Hundred Years of Exchange Rate Economics at the University of Chicago: 1892-1992

One Hundred Years of Exchange Rate Economics at the University of Chicago: 1892-1992

Nexus Between Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth: A Case of Pakistan

This study investigates the nexus between real effective exchange rate (REER) misalignment and the economic growth of Pakistan. It relies on a single equation model for estimating equilibrium exchange rate using the autoregressive distributive lags (ARDL) approach. The study further uses the growth equation to explore the effects of misalignment of RER on growth proxies. The data were obtained from the official websites of the World development indicator, IMF, Penn World Table, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, and Ministry of Finance Pakistan. In terms of trade, the data was available on three different bases in different editions of the economic survey of Pakistan. All unit values of imports and exports were changed as per new base 1991 so that the data from editions of survey becomes uniform. The study takes data from 1970 to 2020. The study findings show that gross capital formation, trade openness, and government spending have a substantial role in defining the equilibrium REER. The findings also identify a positive and significant effect of REER misalignment on the economic growth of Pakistan. This paper contributes by measuring the degree of misalignment of real exchange rates using the single equation approach which is rare in the case of Pakistani literature. The single equation approach not only measures the misalignment by PPP factor but also considers basic economic fundamentals such as trade openness, terms of trade, productivity differentials etc. The study further provides evidence of misalignment with economic growth over a longer period (1970-2020). The findings suggest the effective use of exchange rate policy to control exchange rate misalignment to get higher and more sustainable economic growth. The study is useful for policymakers in the long-term economic planning of Pakistan. The results can be generalized for other economies with similar features.

Exchange rate volatility and domestic investment in G7: are the effects asymmetric?

One strand of the literature in exchange rate economics argues and demonstrates that exchange rate uncertainty could affect domestic investment in either direction. In this paper, we argue and demonstrate that the effects of exchange rate volatility on domestic investment could be asymmetric, meaning that increased uncertainty may have different effect in size or direction than decreased uncertainty. We use data from each of the G7 countries and how those effects are asymmetric in the short run in almost all seven countries. However, short-run asymmetric effects translate into the long-run only in Germany and the U.S. While in the U.S., long-run effects are asymmetric, in Germany they are not.

Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets

This article presents an overview of research on the Microstructure of Foreign Ex-change Markets. We begin by summarizing the institutional features of FX trading and describe how they have evolved since the 1980s. We then explain how these features are represented in microstructure models of FX trading. Next, we describe the links be- tween microstructure and traditional macro exchange-rate models and summarize how these links have been explored in recent empirical research. Finally, we provide a microstructure perspective on two recent areas of interest in exchange-rate economics: the behavior of returns on currency portfolios, and questions of competition and regulation.

Exchange rate economics is always and everywhere controversial

ABSTRACTThis article reviews the major developments in the recent literature on exchange rate economics. It is argued that the link between the exchange rate and economic fundamentals is breaking new ground. Evidence indicates that alternative analytical frameworks (such as the new open-economy macroeconomics) and exchange rate arrangements (such as the euro) have their theoretical and analytical elegance, but are proving empirically very difficult to implement. The role of methodological advances and alternative fundamental instruments (such as world commodity prices) is also highlighted.

The Interaction between Exchange Rate Regime and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence for Tunisia

This paper revisits, empirically, the question of whether the choice of exchange rate regime (floating currency, fixed rate or intermediate arrangement) has a direct effect on the long-term growth in Tunisia over a period from 1990 to 2014. The results show that both series are integrated of order one (I(1)), the existence of a long-term relationship between exchange rate regime and economic growth and Granger pairwise causality test revealed unidirectional causality from real GDP to exchange rate regime (RCt). Our results indicate the absence of any robust relation between the choice of exchange rate regime and economic growth. The policy implication of these findings is clear. The choice of exchange rate policy has no direct impact on the long-term growth of Tunisian economy.

Capital controls, competitive depreciation, and the technological frontier

This paper considers the internal and external welfare effects of international capital controls and real exchange rate undervaluation in a multi-country setting. I present a dynamic open-economy macro model with an endogenously determined rate of interest on internationally traded assets. All countries produce tradable and nontradable goods using technology that converges over time to a global frontier. The model quantifies the welfare effects of the unilateral implementation of capital controls that depreciate the real exchange rate in economies both already at and converging to the technological frontier. For developing economies, I demonstrate that such government interventions may constitute “beggar-thy-neighbor” policies.

Austerity and Recovery: Exchange Rate Regime Choice, Economic Growth and Financial Crises

Austerity and Recovery: Exchange Rate Regime Choice, Economic Growth and Financial Crises

Trilemma, Not Dilemma: Financial Globalisation and Monetary Policy Effectiveness

We investigate whether the classic Mundell-Flemming has morphed into a due to financial globalisation. According to the dilemma hypothesis, global financial cycles determine domestic financial conditions regardless of an economy's exchange rate regime and monetary policy autonomy is possible only if capital mobility is restricted. We find that global financial cycles indeed reduce domestic monetary policy effectiveness in more financially integrated economies. However, we also find that another salient feature of financial globalisation has the opposite effect and amplifies monetary policy effectiveness. Economies increasingly net long in foreign currency experience larger valuation effects on their external balance sheets in response to exchange rate movements triggered by monetary policy impluses. Overall, we find that the net effect of financial globalisation since the 1990s has been to amplify monetary policy effectiveness in the typical advanced and emerging market economy. Specifically, our results suggest that the output effect of a tightening in monetary policy has been stronger by 40% due to financial globalisation. Insofar as valuation effects can only play out if an economy's exchange rate is flexible, the choice of the exchange rate regime remains critical for monetary policy autonomy under capital mobility and in the presence of global financial cycles. Thus, our results suggest that the classic trilemma remains valid.

Trilemma, Not Dilemma: Financial Globalisation and Monetary Policy Effectiveness

We investigate whether the classic Mundell-Flemming “trilemma” has morphed into a “dilemma” due to financial globalisation. According to the dilemma hypothesis, global financial cycles determine domestic financial conditions regardless of an economy's exchange rate regime and monetary policy autonomy is possible only if capital mobility is restricted. We find that global financial cycles indeed reduce domestic monetary policy effectiveness in more financially integrated economies. However, we also find that another salient feature of financial globalisation has the opposite effect and amplifies monetary policy effectiveness: Economies increasingly net long in foreign currency experience larger valuation effects on their external balance sheets in response to exchange rate movements triggered by monetary policy impulses. Overall, we find that the net effect of financial globalisation since the 1990s has been to amplify monetary policy effectiveness in the typical advanced and emerging market economy. Specifically, our results suggest that the output effect of a tightening in monetary policy has been stronger by 40% due to financial globalisation. Insofar as valuation effects can only play out if an economy's exchange rate is flexible, the choice of the exchange rate regime remains critical for monetary policy autonomy under capital mobility and in the presence of global financial cycles. Thus, our results suggest that the classic trilemma remains valid.

Money Demand in Structural Modelsof Exchange Rate Determination

The demand for money is the key element uniting major structural models of exchange rate determination. The author analyzes the history of money demand theorizing in connection with the development of structural models of exchange rate determination. The author demonstrates that the evolution of the theory of money demand shaped the evolution of the theory of exchange rate. The paper also contains suggestions regarding the approach to criticizing structural exchange rate determination models on methodological grounds and the manner of teaching the economics of exchange rates.

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Macroeconomic News Surprises and Volatility Spillover in the Foreign Exchange Markets

This paper addresses the central open issue in exchange rate economics: the link between exchange rate volatility and economic fundamentals. In the framework of a multivariate volatility model that allows for volatility spillover, we develop a new impulse response analysis to estimate and decompose the simultaneous effect of macroeconomic news surprises on the foreign exchange volatility. We show that news announcement effects include two components; a direct and an indirect effect induced by volatility spillover. We show that more than 50% of the total accumulated news effect on the Pound and the Yen are due to volatility transmission from the two major currencies and mainly from the Euro.

An Essay on Exchange Rate Dynamics

There is rarely another field in economics where the prevailing theoretical models have been contradicted so strongly by empirical evidence as exchange rate economics. This study therefore attempts to investigate exchange rate dynamics in an exploratory way. It is first demonstrated that the exchange rate does not follow a random walk as often postulated. There exists a systematic pattern in the process of exchange rate determination which at the same time does not conform to economic theory. In order to detect this pattern, the gestalt of exchange rate fluctuations is carefully explored. It is shown that a sequence of upward or downward price runs interrupted by some erratic fluctuations is most typical for exchange rate dynamics in the short run. Since such a pattern can be systematically exploited by certain trading rules, the importance of analysis for the expectations formation and consequently the determination of exchange rates is examined. It turns out that the trading rules implied by technical analysis, which are actually employed in the market, have systematically produced extra profits over the whole period without any relevant risk. The second part of the study focuses on the medium-term fluctuations in exchange rate dynamics. It is argued that these fluctuations can be explained as the result of interacting diseuilibria in the goods market and the asset market wherein the exchange rate fluctuates around the purchasing power parity as its center of gravity without any tendency of convergence, i.e., towards a stable equilibrium. The study concludes with a discussion on the theoretical founedations of exchange rate instability.

THE INFLUENCE OF FUNDAMENTALS ON EXCHANGE RATES: FINDINGS FROM ANALYSES OF NEWS EFFECTS

Abstract As we survey the literature of macroeconomic news in the foreign exchange market, we can by now look back on nearly 30 years of research. The first studies which analysed news effects on exchange rates were established in the early 1990s (see, for example, Dornbusch). Almost at the same time Meese and Rogoff published their influential paper, revealing the forecasting inferiority in exchange rates of structural models against the random walk. This finding has shocked the pillars of exchange rate economics and thus cast general suspicion on research focusing on fundamentals in this field. The eventual rising popularity of event studies can partly be attributed to the re‐establishment of the raison d’être of exchange rate economics. This work focuses on systematically surveying this literature with particular respect to its primary goal, i.e. shedding light on the analytical value of fundamental research. Thus, its major findings are, first, fundamental news does matter, whereas non‐fundamental news matters to a lesser degree. Second, news influences exchange rates via two separated channels, i.e. incorporating common information into prices directly or indirectly based upon order flow. Third, with a few exceptions the impact of fundamental news on exchange rates is fairly stable over time.

Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information

This paper adds to the research efforts that aim to bridge the divide between macro and micro approaches to exchange rate economics by examining the linkages between exchange rate movements, order flow and expectations of macroeconomic variables. The basic hypothesis tested is that if order flow reflects heterogeneous expectations about macroeconomic fundamentals, and currency markets learn about the state of the economy gradually, then order flow can have both explanatory and forecasting power for exchange rates. Using one year of high frequency data collected via a live feed from Reuters for three major exchange rates, we find that: i) order flow is intimately related to a broad set of current and expected macroeconomic fundamentals; ii) more importantly, order flow is a powerful predictor of daily movements in exchange rates in an out-of-sample exercise, on the basis of economic value criteria such as Sharpe ratios and performance fees implied by utility calculations.

Exchange-rate economics for the resources sector

The paper provides an account of aspects of exchange-rate economics that are of particular relevance to the resources sector. The issues discussed include exchange-rate volatility and the risk management practices used to deal with it, the role of productivity differences across countries, and the impact of a booming resources sector on the country's exchange rate. The discussion is organized around a simple stylized model that emphasizes the quantity theory of money and purchasing power parity as a long-run link between prices and exchange rates.

Exchange Rate Forecasting, Order Flow and Macroeconomic Information

This paper adds to the research efforts that aim to bridge the divide between macro and micro approaches to exchange rate economics by examining the linkages between exchange rate movements, order flow and expectations of macroeconomic variables. The basic hypothesis tested is that if order flow reflects heterogeneous expectations about macroeconomic fundamentals, and currency markets learn about the state of the economy gradually, then order flow can have both explanatory and forecasting power for exchange rates. Using one year of high frequency data collected via a live feed from Reuters for three major exchange rates, we find that: i) order flow is intimately related to a broad set of current and expected macroeconomic fundamentals; ii) more importantly, order flow is a powerful predictor of daily movements in exchange rates in an out-of-sample exercise, on the basis of economic value criteria such as Sharpe ratios and performance fees implied by utility calculations.

A GUIDED TOUR OF THE MARKET MICROSTRUCTURE APPROACH TO EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION

Abstract We propose a critical review of recent developments in exchange rate economics which have offered a novel approach to exchange rate determination. This new strand of research, the market microstructure approach to exchange rates, is motivated by some very stark empirical evidence, relating exchange rate dynamics to the imbalance in the sequence of purchases and sales of foreign currencies in the markets for foreign exchange. Through our review we outline the results this new strand of research has achieved alongside its open questions and future challenges.

The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: A nonlinear microstructural analysis

Taylor (1994, 1995) [Taylor, M.P., 1994. Exchange rate behaviour under alternative exchange rate regimes. In: Kenen, P. (Ed.), Understanding Interdependence: The Macroeconomics of the Open Economy. Princeton University Press, Princeton; Taylor, M.P., 1995. The economics of exchange rates. Journal of Economic Literature 33, 13–47] has proposed the coordination channel as a means by which foreign exchange market intervention may be effective, in addition to the traditional portfolio balance and signalling channels. If strong and persistent misalignments of the exchange rate are caused by nonfundamental influences, such that a return to equilibrium is hampered by a coordination failure among fundamentals-based traders, then official intervention may act as a coordinating signal, encouraging stabilising speculators to re-enter the market at the same time. We develop this idea in the framework of a simple microstructural model of exchange rate movements, which we then estimate using daily data on the dollar–mark exchange rate and on Federal Reserve and Bundesbank intervention operations. The results are supportive of the existence of a coordination channel of intervention effectiveness.