Assessment Of Economic Vulnerability Research Articles

Flood economic vulnerability and risk assessment at the urban mesoscale based on land use: A case study in Changsha, China

With climate change and urbanization, flood disasters have significantly affected urban development worldwide. In this study, we developed a paradigm to assess flood economic vulnerability and risk at the urban mesoscale, focusing on urban land use. A hydrological simulation was used to evaluate flood hazards through inundation analyses, and a hazard-vulnerability matrix was applied to assess flood risk, enhancing the economic vulnerability assessment by quantifying the differing economic value and flood losses associated with different land types. The case study of Wangchengpo, Changsha, China, found average total economic losses of 126.94 USD/m2, with the highest risk in the settlement core. Residential areas had the highest flood hazard, vulnerability, and losses (61.10% of the total loss); transportation areas accounted for 27.87% of the total economic losses due to their high flooding depth. Despite low inundation, industrial land showed greater economic vulnerability due to higher overall economic value (10.52% of the total). Our findings highlight the influence of land types and industry differences on flood vulnerability and the effectiveness of land-use inclusion in urban-mesoscale analyses of spatial flood characteristics. We identify critical areas with hazard and economic vulnerability for urban land and disaster prevention management and planning, helping to offer targeted flood control strategies to enhance urban resilience.

Covid-19 on stock market performance: evidence from Italy

This paper has explored the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Italian stock market at an industry level, analysing companies listed in the two major stock indexes: MIB 30 and STAR. Using daily firm-level stock prices (from December 2019, until October 31, 2020), we employed an event-study approach to analyse short-term stock market reactions, considering different pandemic windows period. Results showed that stocks reacted negatively to the announcement of the first case in the country, with deep reversal effects when the country was locked down. Monetary policy measures showed potential to ease stock markets: the announcement of Next Generation Agreement highlights the reversed role of Market Capitalization. Firm-specific variables were included in order to make inferences about firm characteristics that emerged as value drivers during the pandemic: in the first lockdown period, a greater company’s capitalization ensured a greater resilience to the Covid-19 shock. Reversals at both an industry and a company level are observed. Results allow to understand how an outbreak of contagious disease affects stock returns in various sectors, helping investors to develop trading strategies to protect their wealth from future epidemics and providing inputs into the assessment of economic vulnerability to pandemic crises.

Economic vulnerability assessment in the water sector with a focus on electricity production in hydropower plants: Case of Montenegro

The aim of our paper is economic vulnerability assessment in the water sector of Montenegro, with a focus on electricity production in hydropower plants. The absence of an officially defined methodology in Montenegro, as well as in the region of South-East Europe represents a kind of challenge for research of this type especially for the assessment of economic damage caused by climate change and in the future period. In our paper, we treated negative impacts in the water sector as additional costs for the import of electricity due to reduced electricity production caused by the reduction of water potential due to climate change. After collecting, processing and analyzing data on electricity production in Montenegro, we prepared a projection of this production in the future period for the basic scenario - “without climate change”. This was followed by an assessment of the quantitative damage, in accordance with the determined climate scenarios. After analyzing electricity prices in the European market, we defined future unit were defined as a basis for damage assessment. We conclude the paper with the calculation and projection of economic damages caused by climate change in the Montenegrin energy sector. The basic variant of the analysis would be the existing price of electricity imports for 2022, in the amount of 200 EUR per MWh. The other two variants would be one higher and one lower electricity import prices (250 and 150 EUR per MWh, respectively), in order to gain an overview of the future price fluctuations in a certain way.

Urban community perception on social vulnerability to disaster: the case of Bukit Antarabangsa, Malaysia

This article aims to determine the perception of urban communities living in Bukit Antarabangsa regarding the issue of social vulnerability (SV) to landslide and landslide-related disasters. Bukit Antarabangsa is widely known as one of the highly urbanized areas near the metropolitan of Kuala Lumpur which are highly susceptible to landslides. Few communities which currently under the SeDAR project (i.e., a join-community-based disaster risk reduction/CBDRR program between Selangor State Disaster Management Centre – JICA – Local NGO: SlopeWatch Bukit Antarabangsa) were selected as a case study. Focus Group Discussion (FGD) and household surveys were conducted during Conditional Movement Order (CMCO) on March 27th 2021 and April 11th 2021 to gather relevant information on the researched topic. The questionnaire for the survey was formulated based on the proposed detailed list of SV components, indicators, sub-indicators and weightage which was derived from a review of the literature and internal consultation among disaster experts. The data analysis process in this study served to achieve the objective of social and economic vulnerability assessment in general based on the usage of sub-indicators to point out the score value and level of performance of each sub-indicator based on the survey of local stakeholders. Results from data analysis were translated into spatial context through the production of an SV map of the study area. In summary, the integrated approach to the assessment of SV involving data analysis and mapping/spatial representation has offered some valuable insights towards strengthening local community resilient to disaster and should be considered for inclusion into the establishment of a long-term community-based disaster risk reduction (CBDRR) planning and assessment, and in formulating DRR strategies at local and/or municipal context.

Economic vulnerability assessment of EU countries to the impact of COVID-19 pandemic with the revised CEV index

The COVID-19 pandemic had a wide range of detrimental consequences for the global and national economies. It is vital to identify particularly susceptible areas to adopt effective strategies to alleviate the adverse effects of a pandemic. The objective of the paper is to assess the economic vulnerability of EU countries to the COVID-19 pandemic impact using the revised CEV Index. In the study, methods of multivariate statistics were used to analyse the effects of the pandemic. The revised CEVI replaces the 20-dimensional set of features with one aggregate measure, estimated for 27 EU Member States. According to the study, the economic vulnerability of EU countries to the COVID-19 pandemic varies significantly. The most vulnerable countries are in southern Europe, where the tourism sector plays a significant role in GDP composition. Highly susceptible are also Baltic countries: Latvia and Lithuania. The pandemic's harmful impact was the least seen in Germany and Scandinavian countries. The results of this study can be used as a tool for the formulation of policies aimed at overcoming the adverse consequences of economic vulnerability. The CEVI indicates certain areas in the country's economy that make it more fragile. Thus, it can play a significant role in the decision-making process. In the event of a pandemic shock, the CEVI, in combination with other tools, can be an effective instrument for improving the economy's resilience and helping it recover faster.

Vulnerability Assessment and Spatiotemporal Differentiation of Provinces Tourism Economic System Based on the Projection Pursuit Clustering Model

The vulnerability assessment indicator system (VAIS), including the tourism economic sensitivity and respondence, is modified and established in this paper. According to the collected data, during 2014–2018 of the 31 provinces of China, of the tourism economy sensitivity and respondence, the improved comprehensive evaluation projection pursuit clustering (PPC) model is established, and the vulnerability indexes of the 31 provinces are calculated, thus expanding the tourism economic vulnerability assessment methods. Our empirical results show that, during the period of 2014 to 2018, the sensitivity, the respondence, and the vulnerability indexes are unbalanced overall. The tourism economy sensitivity and the respondence show that the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics are high in the east and low in the west. On the contrary, as for the vulnerability, the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics are low in the east and high in the west. Among the 40 indicators, the ratio of industrial solid waste utilized (%), urbanization rate, and the density of grade highway and railway network (km/km2) have the greatest impact on the respondence, while the proportion of the population affected by natural disasters, the diversification index of industrial structure, and the number of traffic accident casualties have the most significant impact on the sensitivity, which are the indicators that have the greatest impact on vulnerability. Therefore, in order to effectively reduce sensitivity, improve respondence, and thus reduce the vulnerability index of the tourism economy, the provinces should first improve the above-mentioned evaluation indicators with the largest weights. Our research results in this paper enrich the theory of sustainable development of the tourism industry and derive managerial and policy insights for further achieving the high-quality development of the tourism economy.

Assessment Method of the Economic Vulnerability of the Coastal Zone Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Wang, B.; Nie, X.; Li, Z., and Fan, T., 2019. Assessment method of the economic vulnerability of the coastal zone based on the analytic hierarchy process. In: Guido-Aldana, P.A. and Mulahasan, S. (eds.), Advances in Water Resources and Exploration. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 93, pp. 798–803. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.It is an important strategic measure to carry out the scientific concept of development and build a harmonious society to make great efforts to build a coastal economic uplift zone and cultivate a new economic growth pole. A coastal economic vulnerability assessment method based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is proposed. And combined with statistical data for empirical analysis. The statistical information model of coastal economic vulnerability assessment is constructed. According to the mining results of coastal economic vulnerability assessment information, the frequent itemsets association rules of coastal economic vulnerability assessment data are reconstructed, the correlation dimension characteristics of coastal economic vulnerability information are extracted, and the regular characteristics of coastal economic vulnerability assessment cross-correlation information fusion are analyzed. Taking this as the constraint condition, the correlation information mining evaluation of coastal economic vulnerability assessment is carried out, and the statistical analysis and robustness test of coastal economic vulnerability are carried out by using statistical feature analysis method. The simulation structure shows that the model has good accuracy and high confidence in coastal economic vulnerability assessment, and improves the quality of coastal economic vulnerability assessment.

A quantitative methodology for the assessment of the regional economic vulnerability to flash floods

Economic losses caused by flash floods are expected to rise worldwide in the coming decades, which is largely due to the increasing exposure of elements at risk. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of the economic context of the potentially affected areas is highly recommendable. Numerous papers have been published to date that focus on quantifying vulnerability in general and in areas affected by floods in particular. However, the number of studies devoted to flash flood-prone areas is far lower. Integrated economic vulnerability assessment enables one to learn what characteristics explain, trigger, intensify, and attenuate the exposure, sensitivity, and resilience of economically vulnerable populations, which can be combined to achieve an Integrated Economic Vulnerability Index (IEVI). The methodology deployed here was conducted in Castilla y León (northwest Spain; 94.223 km2) and has allowed the economic vulnerability of urban areas to be analyzed, which has been primarily addressed by the estimation of economic losses or, more recently, including a few economic variables within social vulnerability assessments. Thus, 118 economic variables were initially gathered and then divided into groups through a hierarchical segmentation analysis. Subsequently, variables were combined employing a principal components analysis, giving rise to the economic vulnerability factors that were subsequently aggregated to construct the IEVI. Tolerance statistic was used as a weighting method to define the IEVI, whereas quintiles were chosen as a statistical criterion to map economic vulnerability. As a final step, latent class cluster analysis was implemented to identify spatial patterns of vulnerability. Our findings show that IEVI scores have a high spatial variability and a high degree of complexity in the relationships among different vulnerability factors. Moreover, they help to identify spatial patterns of vulnerability, which makes the design of suitable vulnerability reduction strategies possible, thereby improving the efficiency of flood risk management plans and policies.

A Comprehensive Assessment and Spatial Analysis of Vulnerability of China’s Provincial Economies

Vulnerability theory is a fundamental scientific knowledge system in sustainable development, and vulnerability assessment is important in vulnerability studies. Economic vulnerability affects economic growth sustainability. Comprehensive assessment of economic vulnerability in the process of economic growth under the theoretical framework of vulnerability will provide a new perspective for vulnerability studies. Based on a vulnerability scoping diagram assessment model, this study selected 22 economic sensitivity indexes and 25 economic adaptability indexes from the economic, social, and nature–resource–environmental subsystems to comprehensively assess and spatially analyse the vulnerability of China’s provincial economies since the year 2000, while applying the entropy method, multilevel extension assessment, spatial measurement method, and geographic information system technology. The results showed the following: (1) There are great differences in the vulnerability of China’s provincial economies. Western China’s vulnerability is higher and the fluctuation range of economic vulnerability is larger. The vulnerability increased significantly based on spatial differential features; (2) Regional differences in economic vulnerability, mainly caused by differences within a region, increased gradually. Eastern and Western China showed the spatial pattern characteristics of prominent and reinforcing regional imbalance, while Central and Northeast China showed declining regional imbalance. The spatial structure evolution of economic vulnerability is characterized by a volatility curve, and regional separation and divergence are strengthened; (3) Growth of China’s provincial economies and economic vulnerability are related negatively. In Eastern, Central, and Northeast China, vulnerability of the provincial economies has a negative spillover effect on neighbouring provinces’ economic growth, while in Western China it has a slight positive spillover effect.

Assessment of economic vulnerability of the households of floodplain wetland fishermen

Fishermen communities, in general and inland fishermen in particular are one of the most marginalised and vulnerable group in India with extreme poverty and very low economic base. The present study was conducted to investigate the economic vulnerability of the fishermen households of two beels (floodplain wetlands) in West Bengal (Kholshi and Akaipur) andone beel in Assam (Deepor) based on a sample of 185 fishermen households. By employing the methodology developed by Bene (2009) it was found that the average vulnerability scores were 0.21, 0.14 and 0.33 for Kholsi, Akaipur and Deepor beels, respectively on a scale of 0 to 1. The study showed that in flood plain wetlands with well managed cooperativesociety, optimum and scientific stocking, income diversification and participatory management, agricultural land holdings can significantly lower economic vulnerability of the fishermen households. The study suggests the Government to facilitate creation of supplementary income generating opportunities and integrated agricultural activities in the vicinity of thewetlands. There is potential for developing eco-tourism with suitable infrastructure in beels like Deepor, which may help to provide supplementary employment to fishermen.

Sustainable Disaster Recovery Decision-Making Support Tool: Integrating Economic Vulnerability into the Objective Functions of the Associated Stakeholders

AbstractNatural disasters affect the built environment’s infrastructure and disturb the economic sector’s sustainability and welfare. This requires a disaster recovery decision support tool that capitalizes on the redevelopment opportunities to elevate societies to a more-sustainable and less-vulnerable status. As such, this paper presents an agent-based model approach that aims to meet the objectives of stakeholders while decreasing the community’s economic vulnerability. Accordingly, the proposed model adopts a five-step research methodology: (1) implementing a comprehensive economic vulnerability assessment tool; (2) developing the objective functions and learning algorithms of the associated stakeholders; (3) modeling the different attributes and potential strategies of the various stakeholders; (4) creating an interdependent agent based model that simulates the aforementioned information; and (5) interpreting and analyzing the results generated from the developed model. The model is developed and tes...

Assessment of economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises

Infectious disease crises have substantial economic impact. Yet mainstream macroeconomic forecasting rarely takes account of the risk of potential pandemics. This oversight contributes to persistent underestimation of infectious disease risk and consequent underinvestment in preparedness and response to infectious disease crises. One reason why economists fail to include economic vulnerability to infectious disease threats in their assessments is the absence of readily available and digestible input data to inform such analysis. In this Viewpoint we suggest an approach by which the global health community can help to generate such inputs, and a framework to use these inputs to assess the economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises of individual countries and regions. We argue that incorporation of these risks in influential macroeconomic analyses such as the reports from the International Monetary Fund's Article IV consultations, rating agencies and risk consultancies would simultaneously improve the quality of economic risk forecasting and reinforce individual government and donor incentives to mitigate infectious disease risks.

A study on urban economic vulnerability evaluation system

Chinese cities face high and rapidly increasing exposure to disasters. Reducing disaster vulnerability is a direct and effective countermeasure for disaster management and risk reduction, which requires first and foremost objective assessment of the vulnerabilities of societies and economies. Assessment of economic vulnerability is a significant step in risk evaluation, a prerequisite for effective disaster prevention planning and an important base for emergency management. This paper develops a model for assessing economic vulnerability, which takes into account of the size of enterprises, the vulnerability and importance of various industrial sectors and economic density. Based on the model, this paper develops an urban economic vulnerability evaluation system and applies it to Haidian District in Beijing, the results help identify where in its 647 blocks are highly and very highly vulnerable in terms of economies, and it provides useful and practical information for pre-disaster prevention planning, disaster preparedness and emergency management. The economic vulnerability assessment model and the system developed in this study make it possible for the government to quickly evaluate the general economic vulnerability and identify the specific vulnerable areas, making contribution to disaster management information system and decision support system.

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Approach for GIS-MCDA Based Economic Vulnerability Assessment

This research aims to employ a novel methodology for modelling uncertainty in the GIS environment. The spatially explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis was applied on Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for an economic vulnerability assessment within the Salzach Basin. The main objective of this research is to demonstrate how a unified approach of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can be applied to minimize the associated uncertainty within an economic vulnerability assessment. In order to achieve this objective, the following methodology, composed four steps, was applied: (1) computation of criteria weights using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP); (2) Monte Carlo Simulation was applied for computing the uncertainties associated with AHP weights; (3) the Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) was employed in the form of the model-independent method of output variance decomposition, in which the variability of vulnerability maps is apportioned to every criterion weight, generating one first-order (S) and one total-effect (ST) sensitivity index map per criterion weight; and (4) an Ordered Weighted Averaging method was applied for producing vulnerability maps. The results of this research demonstrated the robustness of spatially explicit GSA for minimizing the uncertainty associated with GISMCDA models. According to the achieved results, we conclude that applying the variance based GSA leads to a spatial and statistical assessment of the importance of each input factor on the outcome of the GIS-MCDA method, which allows us to introduce and recommend GIS based GSA as a useful methodology for minimizing uncertainty of GISMCDA.

Economic vulnerability of mining city —A case study of Fuxin City, Liaoning Province, China

The economic system of mining city is of typical vulnerability characteristics that can be manifested by its high economic sensitivity and lack of response capacity to the gradual depletion of regional mineral resources. Taking Fuxin City of Liaoning Province as a case, this paper established an economic vulnerability assessment method inte- grating BP neural network with vulnerability index, then carried out an economic vulnerability assessment of Fuxin during 1989-2006. The results indicate that: 1) Affected by the gradual depletion of regional mineral resources, the economic development of Fuxin had kept high economic sensitivity from 1995 to 2001, and the response capacity to cope with and adapt to the impacts of the perturbation of mineral resources was weak and relatively lag. The evolution of economic vulnerability can be divided into three stages: in 1989-1994, the economic vulnerability of Fuxin City decreased slowly; in 1995-2001, the beginning stage of economic transformation, the economic vulnerability of Fuxin City went up rapidly; in 2002-2006, the economic vulnerability of Fuxin City descended and showed a trend to be sta- ble. 2) The influence of economic sensitivity on Fuxins economic vulnerability is more evident than that of response capacity. 3) The decreasing supply of mineral resources and the simple industrial structure are main factors leading to the economic sensitivity of Fuxin. 4) The improvement of economic response capacity of Fuxin has typical character- istics of input-driven growth, and external assistance is of great importance to the rapid improvement of economic re- sponse capacity of Fuxin. And 5) the change from the simple industrial structure to diversified one of Fuxin is still un- accomplished, and the contribution of non-coal-based industry to local economic development is relatively limited.