Economic Turmoil Research Articles

Humanitarian Activism, Social Protection, and Emergent Citizenship in Myanmar

Through the confluent impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2021 military coup, Myanmar has become a failed state. Deliberate targeting of humanitarian actors by the military junta has severely constrained the activities of international non-governmental organisations and United Nations agencies. In the first three post-coup years, welfare provision to the distressed and displaced were mainly undertaken by local actors who adapted to new conditions of both insecurity and broader economic turmoil. This localised welfare is intertwined with emergent local governance mechanisms, using technology and data analysis to deliver transparent, accountable, and inclusive public service. In the absence of a coherent central state, the social contract of welfare develops at more local levels, generating smaller islands of citizenship from which to build future political communities.

Introduction: Mobilizing during COVID-19: social movements in times of crisis

ABSTRACT Early 2020 saw the beginning of a pandemic that triggered an unprecedented global health crisis and economic turmoil. The COVID-19 pandemic also crucially affected the dynamics of political mobilization in social movements. This introduction seeks to reflect on such effects. In particular, we ask: How did the pandemic change or hinder existing struggles? To what extent did new activist networks, issues, and forms of action emerge? Drawing on the special issue’s contributions, we highlight how the pandemic gave way to new incentives and forms of mobilization, in particular the anti-lockdown protests with covid-specific claims, and actor constellations that often brought together people with diverse ideological orientations. These mobilizations were crucially facilitated by social media, bringing together previously disconnected people and harnessing heightened emotions of fear, anger, distrust, uncertainty, and anxiety. At the same time, existing movements continued their work on longer standing issues and often effectively adapted their organizational infrastructures, repertoires of action, or goals to a new set of priorities and circumstances. As in other crises, the pandemic spurred mutual aid and solidarity activism for those most affected by the pandemic.

The global food security conundrum through the lens of the right to food

Working through the complexities of food insecurity with the intention to address issues requires taking a step back to the drawing board to firm up the understanding of food security through the principles that inform the governance framework of the right to food in the context of the current global food security crisis. Considering the multi-dimensional nature of food security in relation to the right to food alongside concepts such as food sovereignty, and issues such as climate change, food loss and food waste, economic and political turmoil is paramount in determining exactly why all people at all times do not have access to adequate food, or the means for its procurement. This commentary delves into the intricacies of the concept of food security, and the hindrances to realising food security for all by considering what food security is, and where, therefore, the challenges in effecting the right to food are. Through careful consideration of the components of the food security equation, this commentary seeks to show how the right to food comes down to more than ensuring that food is physically available. By connecting the right to food to the factors that affect food security and exploring the ways in which those factors can be broken down and addressed separately, this commentary ultimately advocates for the realisation of food security through collaboration. The consideration of the singular concepts that form the food security equation in solving the multi-dimensional food security problem through conjoined and synchronised efforts influenced by obligations of states and international organisations with mandates directly connected to, and influencing the different aspects of the food security equation. Using reports, statistics, theories and academic opinions, this commentary seeks to explore the different components, which form the concept of food security to draw conclusions and analyse existing systems in an attempt to determine what approaches could be considered in addressing the growing food security crisis and the concerns attached to it. Key words: Food security, right to food, climate change, crisis, malnutrition, food loss, food waste

ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЙ ПОРТРЕТ КАЗАХСТАНА: НОВЫЕ ВЕХИ

Recent years have been marked by steady growth of the Kazakh economy, which is supported by the dynamic development of key sectors and the active introduction of new technologies. In 2024, the country continues to successfully adapt to the changing global economic environment, including commodity price volatility and global economic turmoil. The Kazakh economy has demonstrated steady positive dynamics, which is due to the stable growth of key industries and innovative development. Despite global economic challenges and fluctuations in commodity prices, the country continues to demonstrate adaptability and sustainability of economic growth in 2024. International financial institutions and analytical centers agree that the Kazakh economy will maintain moderate growth rates in 2024. This indicates a gradual recovery from global economic turmoil. An important factor contributing to such development is the diversification of the economy, aimed at reducing dependence on commodity exports and stimulating domestic consumption, infrastructure projects and innovation. The Kazakh government is actively working to improve the country's investment attractiveness, support small and medium-sized businesses and develop human capital. These measures are aimed at ensuring sustainable economic growth and improving the well-being of the population. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the current economic state of Kazakhstan, including the dynamics of GDP and GRP, as well as development prospects.

Economic shocks and employment shifts across industrial sectors in English regions

This paper examines changes in employment and job allocation across various industrial sectors in English regions over the years 2009–2021. The aim is to investigate regional resilience by analysing the impact of economic shocks on the make-up and productivity of English regions via dynamic shift-share analysis. The evidence reveals that employment in key industries across English regions remained largely unaffected by economic shocks, also due to the COVID-19 pandemic which prevented occupational shifts through furloughing and essential worker selection. But we also find that while comparative lack of specialisation insulated many English regions from the more damaging aspects of exogenous shocks, the resulting economic turmoil in these regions impacted key sectors differently. The findings contribute to our understanding of regional economic resilience and how it is influenced by industrial diversity, productivity, and economic policy.

Анализ показателей российского финансового рынка

The financial market is a key factor in economic development, an important tool for the redistribution and transformation of investment resources, as well as a litmus test of the state's economic health. The peculiarity of the Russian financial market is its "youth" and "inexperience" in comparison with the markets of developed economies, the path of trial and error, inconsistency in the context of the uniqueness of the financial system of the Russian Federation. This market is particularly vulnerable and volatile in the face of sanctions and global economic turmoil, so it needs competent targeting guidance, effective tools and verified coordination methods and techniques. The fundamental problems of the Russian financial market are quite deep and do not always appear on the surface, which requires an in-depth and permanent tactical and strategic analysis of factors, causes, trends, trends and indicators that can correct the situation in a timely manner in any economic scenario in manual management. The article examines the main features, rallies, features and directions of the development of the financial market of the Russian Federation at the present stage. The analysis of the issuer's statements for 2005–2023, dividend payments for the same period is presented, the dynamics of growth of the segment of mutual funds and exchange-traded mutual funds is considered. A comparative structure of household financial assets in 2017 and 2023 is proposed, the share of different organizational and legal forms of joint-stock companies in the total number of joint-stock companies in 2019–2023, the share of different groups of banks in the value of assets of the Russian banking system in 2000–2023 is given. The final results of the study substantiate the importance of the role of the state as a regulator of the stock market, emphasize its Russian functions, and highlight its conceptual problems. The research is based on the analysis of foreign and Russian publications, as well as on statistical conclusions of financial and statistical data.

Factors Influencing the Perceived Employability among University Students

The global economic turmoil and the employability gap among university students have created a challenging job market for graduates. It is crucial to understand the factors that shape students' perceived employability and to implement effective measures to address this serious issue. A literature review was conducted to provide a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing perceived employability among university students, focusing on research findings published since 2021. The present study indicates that numerous factors, including individual, behavioural, and environmental variables, significantly influence perceived employability among university students. Besides, previous research has diverged on specific factors such as demographics, partial components of personality traits, career engagement, political skills, and labour market situation, which need to be further investigated in the future. Furthermore, this study underscores the crucial significance of perceived employability among university students in a challenging job market. It validates the relevance of Career Construction Theory in interpreting perceived employability among university students and improves researchers' understanding of how perceived employability has evolved before and after the pandemic. Most importantly, this study develops an integrated model of the factors influencing the perceived employability among university students, which can serve as a guide for future researchers to study university students' employment issues and navigate the career practices of stakeholders such as the Ministry of Education, universities, university students, employers, and career practitioners.

Stakeholders and impact (engagement) in EU digital communication strategies during the COVID-19 vaccination campaign

The European Union has navigated numerous complex and multifaceted crises in recent years, including Brexit, refugee challenges, and economic turmoil. The COVID-19 pandemic has added a global-scale event with significant implications, elevating public health protection as a central priority for the EU. This study aims to examine the personalization (stakeholders involved), impact, and digital engagement resulting from diverse communication strategies on Twitter during the COVID-19 vaccination campaign by key EU institutions. Employing a primarily quantitative approach, the research conducts a content analysis that categorizes both quantitative and qualitative elements to explore various variables and engagement indicators in the official accounts of the European Commission, European Parliament, and European Council. The findings suggest that, while the vaccination campaign saw a substantial volume of posts from these profiles, they fell short in engaging, mobilizing, and attracting audiences on Twitter, highlighting enduring challenges in EU message management and dissemination, as identified in previous studies.

DETERMINANTS OF INFLATION IN TURKEY AMID ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL TURMOIL

This study aims to investigate the factors influencing inflation in Turkey between 2006:1-2023:11, taking into account the structural changes that occurred during periods of significant economic, political and geopolitical turmoils. For this purpose, we employ the Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) bootstrap causality test along with the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto bootstrap causality to capture structural changes. Our findings indicate that when structural changes are taken into account, the drivers of inflation are monetary factors such as the money supply and exchange rate. Furthermore, an exogenous factor such as the oil prices is not a determinant of inflation, suggesting that inflation is a domestic factor. Given these findings, the study emphasizes the importance of strong and stable monetary policies in Turkey to control inflation and achieve price stability.

Peculiarities of the social structure of the electorate of left-wing parties in the EU countries

The article is devoted to the analysis of the political situation in the European Union, focusing on changes in support for left-wing parties in the context of global challenges. Transformations in the electoral preferences of EU citizens caused by economic and political turmoil and international conflicts are considered. The main focus is on the growing popularity of radical left populist parties. The analysis shows that traditional left-wing parties are losing support due to insufficiently radical proposals, which leads to fragmentation of their electorate. Radicalization of political sentiment is seen as a serious challenge, as radical movements are less predictable and can create political instability in the region. In this regard, analysts are faced with the question of possible changes in the political landscape, which is especially important in the context of tense international relations and sanctions pressure on Russia. The author emphasizes the need to understand political changes and forecast their consequences in order to develop effective electoral forecasts. The article considers the main results of the 2024 European Parliament elections, their impact on electoral preferences and changes in the EU political landscape. The theoretical approaches and empirical studies of leading domestic and foreign scholars in the field of studying party systems are analyzed, which allows us to assess current and future trends in European politics. The work also touches upon the issues of uniting left-wing forces in opposition to right-wing parties, as well as possible scenarios for the development of the political situation in the European Parliament and its impact on international relations and interstate interaction.

RESPONDENTS’ OCCUPATIONAL GROUP DIFFERENCES FOR IDENTIFIED FACTORS INFLUENCING PROTECTION OF STAKEHOLDERS’ INTEREST: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON STATUTORY AUDITORS’ ROLE IN THE BACKDROP OF CORPORATE ACCOUNTING CORRUPTION

Corporate accounting corruption has a far-reaching effect over different class of stakeholders. It not only creates economic turmoil but also hurt the spirit of overall society. A corporate governance structure includes board of directors and some other concerned authorities entrusted with the duty of overseeing business operation and protecting stakeholders’ interest. A constant oversight of internal control, financial reporting and many other issues concerning the business by corporate governance participants inside or outside of the organisation would ensure protection of stakeholders’ interest. In view of this, 12 variables were grouped into 4 factors using factor analysis. In the study, occupational group differences for selected factors influencing Protection of stakeholders’ interest are tested using one way ANOVA as well.

Did the COVID-19 pandemic fuel public support for social protection?

Abstract Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, both viral infection and the corresponding economic turmoil have wreaked havoc across the globe, highlighting the imperative function of the state as a social protection provider. The pandemic has seemingly created favourable political circumstances for rapidly expanding social protection, but its influences on public welfare attitudes remain unclear. In this study, I argue that the impact of pandemic-driven economic risk is too limited to spur strong public support for social protection. The employed empirical analyses using panel data collected in South Korea show that unemployment induced by the pandemic is conducive to higher degrees of individual support for social protection measures, but the impact is only short-lived. Further analyses show that, once individuals are re-employed and as the time spent in economic difficulties becomes more distant, personal unemployment experiences are no longer positively associated with support for social protection. Finally, pandemic-induced unemployment experiences have a lasting impact primarily on young adults. The evidence therefore suggests that significant institutional changes in the welfare state are hard to achieve by solely relying on the impact of economic risk.

Risk disclosure, earnings smoothing and firm perceived risk

Purpose This paper aims to examine the association between perceived firm risk and two reporting mechanisms: risk disclosure and earnings smoothing in the UK context. Design/methodology/approach This study juxtaposes three competing views, the “null”, the “divergence” and the “convergence” hypotheses, and empirically investigates whether risk disclosure and earnings smoothing affect firm perceived risk for a sample of large UK firms with rich and poor information environments. This study also uses the global financial crisis as an external shock on overall risk in the economy to investigate when and how managers use these two reporting mechanisms to shape the firm perceived risk. Findings This paper documents that risk disclosures have no significant effect on investors’ risk perceptions, consistent with risk disclosures containing boilerplate and generic statements about firm risk. This paper also finds that earnings smoothing reduces investors’ risk perceptions, reflecting investors’ interpretations about future firm performance. Additional tests reveal that earnings smoothing is not associated with perceived firm risk for firms with rich information environments and expanded risk disclosures. Furthermore, reporting smooth earnings decreases perceived firm risk following the global financial crisis. These findings are robust to alternative specifications and measures of earnings smoothing as well as post-filing perceived firm risk. Research limitations/implications This study does not distinguish between the garbling role and the informational role of earnings smoothing. The risk disclosure measurement used in this study, developed based on UK annual reports, may limit the generalizability of findings to other countries. Practical implications The findings suggest that managers should revise their risk disclosure strategies to provide in-depth details on firm risk. Investors might require information and thorough assessment to evaluate investment risks when firms provide generic risk disclosures and smoothed earnings by consulting sources like financial intermediaries. Regulators should keep an eye on firms reporting boilerplate risk disclosures and on how smoothing earnings impacts the firm perceived risk following economic turmoil, to guide interventions that promote market stability. Originality/value The findings provide new insights into when and how managers use their financial reporting discretion to make firms appear less risky and, therefore, influence investors’ risk perceptions.

Furloughing Employees with Uncertain Return? Management of Labor Frictions and Inventory Under Demand Shock

We assess how a retailer can manage inventories and labor under an extreme condition such as a temporary negative demand shock due to a pandemic or an economic turmoil. This analysis incorporates labor market frictions whereby firms incur deadweight costs associated with hiring and firing employees, as well as the option to furlough labor. We examine the impact of these frictions on a retail firm's optimal operating policies around inventory level, furlough, and layoffs. We find that labor market frictions condition the inventory and the level of employment in two ways. First, they lead to underinvestment in inventories, which limits recovery and employment in the postshock period. Second, high labor market frictions motivate the firm to conservatively downsize workforce during the negative demand period leading to higher employment, when compared to downsizing without friction. A significant contribution of our study lies in delineating the optimal furlough decisions and quantifying the impact of the furlough option on inventory and labor decisions. We demonstrate the conditions under which it is optimal for the retailer to either (i) fully downsize labor and leverage the furlough option in the labor market, or (ii) maintain excess labor while also opting to furlough a portion of the workforce. During an extreme event such as a temporary negative demand shock, our results highlight the need for a coordinated effort when implementing governmental subsidy policies on alleviating labor and inventory reductions by accounting for labor market frictions and furlough support.

Mental health problems in Somalia after decades of humanitarian crises: a qualitative exploration of perceptions and experiences

BackgroundHumanitarian crises increase the risk of mental health problems. Somalia has been affected by conflict, insecurity, and economic turmoil for over three decades, as well as climatic shocks. However, 80–90% of Somalis who have mental health problems do not have access to good-quality, and affordable mental health care. To develop an evidence-based, effective, equitable, and humane programme for mental health, we need to have a holistic understanding of mental health problems and care in relation to people’s perceptions, experiences, and behaviour related to mental health.MethodsWe undertook a qualitative study to explore Somalis’ perceptions and experiences of mental health problems. We conducted three key informant interviews, two in-depth interviews, nine focus group discussions, 12 observations in private and public health facilities and more than 12 informal discussions. We used case vignettes translated into Somali during our discussion. We also studied three cases with experience of mental health problems to understand care-seeking behaviour and the experiences with services available.ResultsSomalia has been moving from a traditional pastoral nomadic lifestyle to a settled one. A strong informal support system exists in the community within clans or family relations. Armed conflict often among clans, natural disasters, and khat use are the three main factors affecting mental health. The prevalence of mental problems is likely greater than is evident. It is perceived that about 95% of people suffering from mental illness remain outside of appropriate care. Few people seek care for mental health problems because they are not aware of it and because it is highly stigmatized and neglected. Those who do seek care usually go to traditional healers because of culture and cost. Resources for mental health care are grossly inadequate with a limited and often poorly trained workforce. At least two levels of barrier to mental health care exist, at the individual/family level (e.g. poor awareness of mental health and stigma) and service provider level (e.g. lack of staff and limited ability to diagnose, treat, or refer persons with mental health problems and stigma). No tool or evidence-based programme is available to address these barriers.ConclusionA qualitative data-driven mental health programme that addresses all these issues is needed with more trained mental health professionals. Given the stigma about mental health problems, there is also a need for a tool to raise awareness about mental health and the importance of mental health care among both the public and health workers.

Bitcoin: a Ponzi scheme or an emerging inflation-fighting asset?

Under the dual impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the excessive stimulation of monetary policy continuously pushes up global inflation (INF). Therefore, this article explores whether Bitcoin can serve as a safe haven for INF. We apply the rolling-window Granger causality test to solve the issue of parameter instability in vector autoregression (VAR) systems and investigate the time-varying interaction between INF and Bitcoin price (BP). The negative influence of INF on BP means a high inflation shock causes BP to decline, indicating that Bitcoin cannot be a safe asset against INF. This is because investors have decreased their willingness to hold Bitcoin under the high INF expectations and cause BP to fall. This finding is not supported by the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model, emphasising that INF positively impacts BP. Conversely, BP has positive and negative impacts on INF. The positive effect highlights the effectiveness of Bitcoin in predicting INF fluctuations, but economic factors could undermine this effectiveness. In the context of economic stagnation and market turmoil, investors can adjust their portfolio investments based on Bitcoin. The government should utilise the trend of BP to regulate the dynamics of INF to reduce uncertainty in the financial system.

China, Greece, and Economic Relations in Southeast Europe: A Political Economy Approach

This paper investigates China’s regional role in Southeastern Europe by examining the economic strategy of neo-mercantilism using Greece as a case study. In doing so, this paper will make use of the strategy of neo-mercantilism as part of the broader theory of regional powers pursuing broader geostrategic goals. How has the strategic partnership between China and Greece evolved in recent years, and what are China’s primary objectives in Greece under the neo-mercantilism? China has intentionally sought to expand its influence in Southeastern Europe by cultivating a strategic partnership with Greece, while avoiding challenging the influence of other powers in the area. The economic turmoil in Greece over the past decade created a favorable environment for attracting Chinese FDI. China’s principal focus in developing its strategic partnership with Greece is to increase FDI as a means of achieving its economic goals and other political goals with tangible results related to China’s support in issues mainly concerning the country’s applied foreign policy.

R&D&I support system for innovatively active enterprises

RDI is an important area of innovative growth of domestic economic entities. Isolation on the internal system of innovation management may not lead to the results planned within the framework of key strategic documents at the state level. Expanding its boundaries and involving external participants in solving problems of innovation will become the basis for creating a powerful integrated structure that will provide an innovation lift and scientific and technological renewal of enterprises. A scientifically based approach to the formation of a balanced system of collaborative innovation management is the key to the sustainable functioning of innovatively active enterprises. The purpose of this study is to formulate scientific and practical recommendations for creating an RDI system to support innovatively active enterprises to ensure the effectiveness of their functioning in the context of global economic challenges. In the process of achieving this goal, the following methods of scientific knowledge were used: structural analysis and synthesis, system analysis, generalization and description, modeling. Based on the results of the study, a structural and functional model of the RDI system for supporting innovatively active enterprises was developed, in contrast to existing ones, which creates a platform for balanced innovative development and increased competitiveness through the coherent organization of integrated innovation chains and effective innovation management in a single synergetic environment. Scientific conclusions and proposals are of high importance for the development of theoretical and methodological principles of the theory of innovation, management of innovation activities and solving problems of innovatively active enterprises of the Russian Federation. The study is based on modern works of leading domestic and foreign economists. The RDI system of support for innovatively active enterprises creates the basis for their sustainable functioning under conditions of sanctions restrictions and economic turmoil. The author has determined the vector of development of domestic enterprises to ensure the effective implementation of the mission and achievement of strategic goals.

Impact of economic crises on corporate‐banking relationship: Evidence from Korea

AbstractThis study tries to identify the impact of recent economic turmoil including the COVID‐19 pandemic and global financial crisis on a corporation's banking relationships. Using a wide range of unique data from 2008 to 2020 in the Korean loan market, this study compares the two crises periods to the ordinary periods. It is found that the effects of firm‐specific factors on banking relationships are strengthened (for loan amount) or weakened (for corporate size and credit rating) during the two crises. However, for the industrial sector a firm belongs to, the interaction effects of the crises show opposite signs.

IM-based seismic reliability assessment of the pre-code masonry building stock in metropolitan area of Lisbon

Earthquakes have a long history of causing catastrophic damage to communities, resulting in structural collapses, loss of life, and economic turmoil. To enable informed decision-making and reduce the impact of these events in earthquake-prone regions, seismic risk studies provide relevant information to support stakeholders in the implementation of effective risk-based policies. The present work addresses the seismic reliability of the pre-code masonry building stock in the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon, which is the region of Portugal that faces the highest seismic risk due to the coexistence of moderate to high seismic hazard and highest demographic-economic exposure. The adopted general framework combines several hazard studies developed for the region under investigation and a synthetic database of masonry buildings representative of the pre-code building stock in Lisbon. Through analytical–numerical probabilistic approaches, new second-order hazard solutions with structural dependency are derived for the mean annual frequency of limit-state exceedance, which can be integrated into national application documents for Eurocode 8. In light of these results, the reliability assessment of the building stock is conducted in several Local Administrative Units by means of an improved SAC/FEMA formulation. The study represents the first comprehensive investigation of its kind in this region, providing essential information to define appropriate target safety level for code calibration and support future risk studies.