Economic Structural Change Research Articles

Analisis Pertumbuhan dan Perubahan Struktur Ekonomi di Provinsi Sulawesi Tengah Tahun 2018 - 2022

A country's continuous rise towards improvement over a certain period of time is the process of economic growth. The elements that make up a country's economic structure function to regulate a country's household and are referred to as the economic structure: household, business, government, economic system, input market, and output market. The economics of each of these parts is different. Input markets (for goods and services), output markets (for households, businesses, governments, and economic systems) are components of the economy. This research aims to find out how much economic growth there has been and whether there has been a change in the economic structure of Central Sulawesi Province in the 2018-2022 period. The research uses quantitative research methods, using secondary data, obtained through PDRB Data for Central Sulawesi Province. Analysis methods include Location Quontien (LQ) Analysis and Structural Checks Index (SCI) Analysis. The research findings indicate that from 2018 to 2022, Central Sulawesi Province experienced significant shifts, identifying five key sectors that dominated economic growth. The mining and quarrying sector, along with the processing industry, served as the primary drivers, while the agriculture, forestry, and fishery sectors showed important contributions despite fluctuations. The water supply and waste management sector, although its contribution was low, exhibited stable growth, and the government administration sector also positively contributed with consistent growth. Thus, it can be concluded that there has been a structural change in the economy of Central Sulawesi over this five-year period. The secondary sector has emerged as a driving force behind the economic structural changes in the region, as indicated by an increase in the Sectoral Contribution Index (SCI) year by year, despite declines in the primary and tertiary sectors. This change reflects a shift in resource allocation increasingly directed toward the secondary sector as the main pillar of the regional economy.

Optimal path of China's economic structure and energy demand to carbon neutrality

The changing economic structure may impact future trends in energy demand and carbon emissions since various economic production sectors have differentiated energy dependencies. Compared to consumer goods sector, investment goods sector usually has higher energy intensity, and its energy is weakly substitutable with other input factors. This paper constructs an energy-economy dynamic optimization model (EED) with heterogeneous energy dependences between investment and consumer goods sectors, and applies it to analyze the structural transformation of the Chinese economy and energy prospect. The optimization model generates a drop of investment share in GDP to 27 % in 2060, 15 percentage points lower than in 2020. Along the above transformation path, the peak demand for energy is expected to be between 6.1 and 6.3 billion (tce) in the baseline scenario, and overall energy intensity by 2060 will be 54 % lower than in 2020. The forecasting results also subject to uncertainties including technological progress. Moreover, we find that macroeconomic policy to promote consumption can help alleviate energy and environmental pressures. Thus, the development of the Chinese economy in the future needs to combine multiple channels such as promoting consumption and improving investment efficiency.

Demographic ageing: an opportunity to rethink economy, society and regions

Abstract Ageing is often depicted negatively, but we challenge passive views, suggesting that an “active ageing” agenda requires rethinking economy, urban form and societal responses. We present demographic trends in ageing, migration and urbanization across global regions. Building from psychological theories of ageing regarding disengagement and continuity, we argue for an adjustment response at the societal level to address needed structural changes in economy, social policy and regional planning. These adjustments should prioritize well-being and purpose over economic growth; social policy that links household, informal and formal care and new approaches to urban and regional planning that remake cities for all ages. Ageing requires new paradigms. These societal adjustments will permit new approaches that could build a more inclusive world.

Quantitative assessment of PM2.5-related human health impacts at the provincial level in China and analysis of its heterogeneity affected by economic structural transformation

Rapid economic development has led to massive fossil energy consumption and emissions of air pollutants such as PM2.5, which have severely impacted human health and the environment. By uncovering the primary regions and pivotal sectors of PM2.5-related human health impacts (PM2.5-HHI) and evaluating the influence of economic structural factors on them, we can facilitate a more targeted strategy for managing PM2.5 pollution sources. This study employs a structural decomposition analysis method based on input–output analysis to evaluate the impact of China’s provincial economic structural transformation and changes in final demand on PM2.5-HHI in the years 2012, 2015, and 2017. Results indicated that PM2.5-HHI is primarily concentrated in economically developed provinces (e.g., Shandong and Guangdong), which is compared to Shanghai, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, and Hebei experienced negative growth in PM2.5-HHI during 2007–2017. The production-based PM2.5-HHI is primarily driven by energy-intensive sectors such as the production and distribution of electric power and heat power. By contrast, the building sector is key to driving consumption-based PM2.5-HHI. An increasing number of regions are reducing PM2.5-HHI by implementing production structure changes. Moreover, the driving effect of production structure changes on PM2.5-HHI growth is strengthening in Beijing and Tianjin. Changes in the final demand structure mainly led to the growth of PM2.5-HHI in areas with higher economic development levels, such as Beijing and Shandong, but this driving effect is weakening. The final demand–driven PM2.5-HHI shows an evolutionary trend of an increasing share driven by fixed capital formation and exports and a decreasing share driven by household consumption. Changes in emission intensity play a key role in decreasing PM2.5-HHI in each region. Alternatively, changes in the structure of emission sources have a relatively minor impact on PM2.5-HHI. To mitigate PM2.5-HHI, regional economic and resource endowment advantages should be used to promote regional coordinated development and strengthen green production-process innovation in energy-intensive industries. Meanwhcile, it is necessary to optimize urban construction planning and improve the energy efficiency of buildings.

The contribution of digitalization to non-inclusive growth in Japan. A Régulationist perspective on post-industrial dynamics

While inclusive growth has been considered a major characteristic of post-war Japan, this is no more the case since the early 1990s as the country transitioned to a post-industrial economy. This paper seeks to explain that digitalization is a primary drive of growing inequalities in post-industrial Japan and argues for incorporating the digital divide into the investigation of changing economic structures and growth patterns. We mobilize the Régulation theoretical framework, which posits that the impact of technology on growth and inequality regimes is not homogenous across countries and over time. Our empirical investigation combines macro-level data and institutional perspective with case study of the hospitality sector, in line with the Régulationist concept of the ‘anthropogenic’ mode of development. Our major conclusion is that digitalization, in the specific Japanese context, is leading to non-inclusive growth patterns through its effects on the wage-labour nexus, in an idiosyncratic way.

Does structural change matter for sustainable development in newly industrialized countries? Fresh evidence from a new sustainability indicator

The economic gap between developed and developing economies has been diminishing due to the recent rapid economic growth performance of developing economies. While achieving this swift growth level, developing economies have structurally transformed their economies. However, the impact of this structural change on environmental sustainability remains unclear. Therefore, this study focuses on the impacts of structural change, energy structure, and economic growth on the load capacity factor, a comprehensive sustainability indicator, in newly industrialized countries during 2000–2020. To this end, second-generation panel data techniques, which account for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity, are used to provide more robust and reliable estimates. The results show that economic growth, structural change, and fossil energy utilization decrease the load capacity factor while renewable energy utilization increases it. These findings underscore the need for energy efficiency and resource-conscious policies that align with environmental sustainability while promoting economic growth, highlighting their crucial role in the future of sustainable development.

The Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Structural Change.

Despite recent economic growth and reductions in child mortality in many African countries, the region has experienced a slow fertility transition. In this study, we explore whether the slow structural economic change on the continent can explain this discrepancy. We construct a unique panel dataset combining Demographic and Health Surveys and nighttime light intensity data (an indicator of industrialization) from 57 countries at the subnational region level over three decades to analyze the drivers of fertility transitions across low- and middle-income countries. Our results confirm that household wealth, reduced child mortality, and female primary education are crucial for fertility declines. However, our analysis also highlights the importance of indicators of structural economic change, including the share of labor in nonagricultural occupations, industrialization, the share of women with higher education, and the formalization of the economy. Our simulations suggest that if high-fertility countries in sub-Saharan Africa underwent structural economic transformations comparable to those of other low- and middle-income countries with low fertility rates, their fertility levels could fall by 1 to 1.6 children.

Bewährungsprobe Europas: Wettbewerbsfähigkeit in einer Welt im Wandel

Abstract Competitiveness is increasingly becoming a political focus. In times of geopolitical uncertainty, a trend of de-globalization and changing economic structures, the EU must assert itself as a business location in the competition between nations. Location characteristics such as a successful digital and green transformation in the face of increasingly scarce human capital, an incomplete internal market and inadequate defense capabilities are important. A high level of competitiveness is only possible with a European single market that is equipped with sufficient resources and a sound cooperation between the member states in the EU.

Which Publicly Financed Green Technology R&D Option Most Effectively Drives Carbon Productivity? Instances of Energy Efficiency, Renewables, Nuclear, Hydrogen, and Energy Storage

ABSTRACTAs a strategy, countries seek ways to improve national income and, at the same time, keep carbon emissions minimal. Such a scenario is captured by the respective economies' carbon productivity (CP) scores. Remarkably, it is expected that technological advancements could be harnessed to achieve CP. Hence, many countries have publicly invested in green technologies R&D, including energy efficiency, renewables, nuclear, hydrogen, and energy storage. However, existing studies did not verify the specific contributions of these technological advances to CP, leaving a notable void in the literature. Hence, the current research verified various green technology R&D contributions to CP. Based on panel data from 2003 to 2022, this study implemented the novel instrumental variable quantile regression technique for updated insights. The study uncovers the heterogeneous contributions of each energy innovation variant to the quantile distributions of CP. The heterogeneous effects underscore each country's changing economic structures and varied energy innovation implementation paths. Hence, policy consistency is key to driving CP and ensuring environmental compatibility. R&D on renewable, nuclear, and energy efficiency technologies contributed most significantly to CP across the distributions. R&D on hydrogen and energy storage technologies contributed the least to CP. Therefore, allocating more funds to all R&Ds that boost energy‐enhancing technologies for overall environmental sustainability is expedient. Such proactive and integrative policies consistent with SDGs 7 and 13 would reduce carbon emissions while escalating national income. Meanwhile, isolated and inconsistent funding should be discouraged for overall environmental progress. A robustness evaluation based on SIVQR produced corroborative evidence.

INNOVATIONS FOR INNOVATIONS: WHAT EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMS SHOULD BE LIKE

The changing economic structure, the emergence of innovative technologies, the growing importance of sustainable development, social challenges, and the need to find new non-standard solutions have predetermined the need for a new type of professionals in the labor market. Consequently, new requirements are imposed on universities to prepare graduates capable of solving the problems of the innovative economy. The approach to developing academic excellence through the development and implementation of innovations is becoming a marker of the quality of education. Universities can ensure that graduates achieve learning outcomes only through innovative educational programs.The article analyzes the understanding of the concept of "innovative educational programs". The authors studied the interpretation used in regulatory acts, scientific publications. Based on the analysis of publications, they developed a classification of innovations in education. To clarify the understanding, a survey of educational program developers and top management was conducted, based on which the perception of the academic community was identified, and distinctive characteristics were formulated.

The Dynamics Model of Cross-Regional to Enhance Economic Growth: New Empirical Evidence from Indonesia

Abstract Economic growth growth is crucial to improve community welfare in the long term. Although Indonesia’s economic growth is on an upward trend, Indonesia must remain vigilant in its relationship with the global world due to the rapidly changing and highly uncertain dynamics. Indonesia’s economic growth is also inseparable from the influence of various provinces’ economic growth, which varies due to the economic dynamics between regions. These dynamics can influence the region’s contribution to national economic growth. Therefore, identifying the important role of the determining factors of economic growth and appropriate policies in dealing with economic dynamics between regions is crucial because sustainable economic growth is also essential for improving community welfare. This study examines the determinants of Indonesia’s economic growth from a regional economic perspective, using a Dynamic Panel Data analysis model with three estimation models. The first model focuses on the primary variables of technological progress, population, and investment. The second model adds the human capital variable, while the third model further incorporates the variables of open economy, economic structure changes, and income inequality. The study utilizes data from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency, covering 27 provinces from 2015 to 2022. The results indicate that increased technological progress, population, investment, human resources, economic openness, and economic structure changes can increase economic growth, while inequality of income harms economic growth. This research has implications that in creating determinant conditions for conducive economic growth, it needs to be carried out evenly in all provinces in Indonesia.

Kangaroo Market Phenomenon: Identification and Impact on Indonesia’s Economic Growth

The stock market holds a crucial role in a country's economy, including Indonesia. As an indicator, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) experiences volatility alongside changes in the Indonesian economy. The presence of a kangaroo market in JCI returns can pose a risk of future economic slowdown, making it crucial for monetary authorities to intervene to stabilize the stock market. Therefore, this study identifies the kangaroo market phenomenon, structural economic changes, and the impact of the kangaroo market phenomenon on Indonesia's economic growth. The study focuses on many variables, including JCI returns, kangaroo market, and economic growth from Q3 1995 to Q4 2023. By using the Hodrick-Prescott Filter to define a kangaroo market as JCI returns that lack a deterministic trend, have high volatility, and deviate by one standard deviation from their volatility trend, the results show that most kangaroo phenomena occur during undervaluation. Following the kangaroo market phenomenon, Indonesia's economy underwent five structural changes based on the multiple breakpoint test. Using dynamic linear regression, the overvaluation kangaroo phenomenon negatively affects Indonesia's economic growth, while the undervaluation kangaroo phenomenon has no impact but shows a positive direction.

Analysis of Social Perspectives in Reconstructing the History of Urbanization in Medan City

Urbanization is considered to be an ingrained social phenomenon in various large Indonesian cities, characterized by rapid urban population growth and drastic changes in social, economic and environmental structures. Urbanization in Indonesia shows a rapid increasing trend over the last few decades. Medan City, as one of the main urban centers in North Sumatra, has not escaped the impact of significant urbanization. Along with rapid economic and demographic growth, the city has experienced a major transformation in various aspects of city life. This research aims to identify the history of urbanization in Medan City from a social perspective. The research method used is a qualitative descriptive method through literature study sourced from journals, scientific articles, books and other relevant sources. The results of this research show that urbanization in Medan City has been going on for a long time. Strategically located on the east coast of Sumatra and between the confluence of the Deli River and the Babura River, Medan has vital trade access to the Malacca Strait. Especially in the period 2012 to 2022, the increase in population in Medan City occurred in almost all sub-districts. Of the 21 sub-districts, 17 sub-districts experienced an increase in population of more than 10%. Only one sub-district experienced a decline in population, namely Medan Baru Sub-district by 7.89%. The high level of urbanization in the city of Medan is generally caused by several factors, such as strategic location, the presence of natural resources (SDA), and supporting natural conditions. Meanwhile, the impact on society's social life includes rapid population growth, changes in societal structure, and social and cultural dynamics.Keywords:Â History, Urbanization, Social, Medan City

How do different forms of early employment instability affect future employment chances? A factorial survey experiment with employers

PurposePeriodic economic instabilities and structural changes in the labour market have given rise to a variety of forms of job insecurity. This article compares the scarring effects of different forms of job insecurity on future employment chances, and how they vary across education groups.Design/methodology/approachUsing a sample of real vacancies and data collected in a vignette experiment with employers in Switzerland, a country with a strongly developed vocational education and training (VET) system, this article investigates how employers evaluate a period of unemployment, job hopping and work experience in deskilling jobs when hiring candidates.FindingsThe findings reveal that work in deskilling jobs is by far more scarring than unemployment or job hopping. The study also demonstrates that applicants with upper secondary vocational education are impacted the greatest by all three forms of job insecurity.Originality/valueThe study makes use of real vacancies. While experiments have the strength of high internal validity, most experimental studies in recruitment research rely on students as respondents. As this study works with real employers hiring for positions it benefits from high external validity.

The Effect of Dutch Disease VS New Paradigm of Tourism Development (Case Study of Changes in Bali's Economic Structure)

This article aims to explain the possible effects of Dutch Disease (DD) on tourism development in Bali, and how the new paradigm of tourism development can counter the DD effect. As is known, the development of this sector has brought tourism to become a leading sector for Bali's economic growth. However, this condition in the long term is a sign that Bali is starting to experience a significant DD effect, where growth in key sectors hampers growth in other sectors and may even slow down the overall growth rate of the regional economy. Using descriptive analysis techniques, this article utilizes data sharing data on agricultural sector growth and labor profile by sector in the Province of Bali, in describing how the possible effects of the Dutch disease on the Bali economy occurred.

Dampak Perubahan Struktur Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pemerintah Terhadap Ketimpangan Pendapatan di Indonesia

This research focuses on examining the impact of changes in economic structure and assessing the effectiveness of government program initiatives on income inequality. Income inequality becomes the dependent variable, then the industrial sector GRDP ratio, service sector GRDP ratio, Smart Indonesia Program, Food Social Assistance and Provincial Minimum Wage become the independent variables. The empirical approach in this research involves analysis of panel data from 34 provinces in Indonesia during the 2018-2022 period, using data collected from the Central Statistics Agency and the Ministry of Education and Culture. The research method applied is the Fixed Effect Model (FEM). The findings of this research show that the industrial sector GRDP ratio variable and the Provincial Minimum Wage show a negative influence on income inequality. Meanwhile, other variables, including the GRDP ratio in the service sector, the Smart Indonesia Program, and Social Food Assistance, did not show a significant influence on income inequality.

Structural change and economic growth: Causality relationships in the case of Poland

Research background: Structural change and economic growth characterise any process of economic development and have relevant research background. However, the research on identification of a character of relationships between the phenomena are not conclusive. Researchers either find that economic growth induces structural change and the process is demand-driven or that structural change determines economic growth and the dependencies are supply-driven or that the relation is two-directional with overlapping interdependencies. Moreover, the association may be shaped differently depending on specific development conditions of each economy and transform over time. Purpose of the article: The aim of the study is to investigate the relationships between economic growth and structural change in the sectional composition of employment in Poland using state-level quarterly data for 2008–2022. It empirically verifies whether economic growth determines structural change or changes in economic structure influence growth in this specific national context, giving insights into a character of the developmental interdependencies. However, the Polish case is only an example of developmental feedbacks that may specify any catching-up economy. Diagnosing the dominating character of the economic relation is of high importance for any modern transforming country and identifying any limitations to the interdependencies may make it possible to avoid the middle-income trap. Methods: The paper examines the causality using Granger-test and analyses the relationships with VAR models. It uses some alternative measures of structural change, namely Norm of Absolute Value (NAV), Modified Lilien Index (MLI), and Clark Index (CI) to catch labour reallocation across sections of economic activity (NACE Rev. 2). They are then adopted in lead-lag models of relationships with economic growth. Findings & value added: The study browses the classical three-sectoral approach to structural transformation using a more detailed structural layout to capture its modern character. Moreover, it compares alternative measures of structural change to derive more detailed conclusions. Methodologically, the study highlights the need for in-depth research into structural change with finer aggregation and measures with different properties. The paper is focused on a specific situation in the Polish economy, for which the relationships have not yet been verified. However, the findings are more universal and may be interesting for any catching-up economy that plans its development policy and needs to focus either on demand- or supply side-relationships. The results suggest rather unidirectional causality running from economic growth to structural change and thus a demand-driven character of the structural modernisation of the Polish economy. This implies the necessity to build stronger inter-sectoral linkages that enable spillover effects that can accelerate growth and induce mutually reinforcing mechanisms of development.

Changes in Family Structure during Shantytown Redevelopment and Their Correlation with the Living Space

Amid rapid urbanization, shantytown redevelopment profoundly transforms urban environments and catalyzes substantial changes in social, economic, and family structures. Yet, most previous studies have focused narrowly on the outcomes of single residential mobility events, overlooking the complex dynamics that unfold across the pre-redevelopment, during-redevelopment, and post-redevelopment phases. This study investigates changes in family structure and their correlation with living space throughout all three phases of shantytown redevelopment in Heze City, Shandong Province, China, from 2016 to 2023. Collecting data through a community survey, we gathered 1035 valid responses to analyze family structure and residential characteristics. Our analysis, which included Sankey diagrams and cross-lagged panel models (CLPM), revealed a predominant trend of large families fragmenting into smaller nuclear units and demonstrated a significant positive correlation between family structure complexity (FSC) and living space. Notably, the FSC from a previous phase had a significant influence on the living space of the following phase, indicating lagged effects where housing choices are influenced by prior family structure. Further comparisons across different housing types and tenures during the temporary phase highlighted diverse structural changes among families. These insights are crucial for policymakers to refine urban redevelopment strategies, better meet residents’ needs, and enhance the efficacy of policies.

Driving Change: The Role Of Local Government In Enhancing Human Development Index In Ambon

Problem/Background (GAP): Unemployment in Indonesia is a complex problem; the high number of unemployed people has an impact on the high demand for labor. This problem can be caused by various factors, such as slow economic growth, a mismatch between labor qualifications and market demand, and changes in economic structure. Objective: To find out how much local government performance affects the increase in the human development index and unemployment rate. Method: the research that researchers use is descriptive quantitative method and inferential statistics. Researchers in conducting this research used secondary data. Results: Parametric data is a form of secondary data where this parametric data uses time series with existing data. Local government performance has a positive effect on the unemployment rate. Local government performance shows a positive relationship to the Human Development Index (HDI) seen from the t-test with the results showing at 5% alpha coefficient (t-stat=18.79279>1.833). The result of sobel test shows that there is a moderating effect of the intervening variable (HDI) to the Local Government Performance on the Unemployment Rate, it is shown by the P-value of 0.2518 (<0.05). Conclusion: The existence of local government performance has a significant influence in increasing the human development index and decreasing the unemployment rate.

A note on premature deindustrialization

Industrialization has long been regarded as an engine of economic growth. Indeed, the countries that experienced rapid economic growth in the latter half of 20th century underwent significant economic structural change toward industrialization. In contrast, in the 21st century, latecomers might face difficulty realizing the industrialization required for economic growth because of a phenomenon called ‘premature deindustrialization’ taking place in those countries. This issue of premature deindustrialization, if it holds true, raises important questions, such as what its mechanism is, what its effects are, and what the alternative strategies for economic growth are. This paper, as a steppingstone to consider these issues, uses expanded samples to examine and confirm the occurrence of premature deindustrialization.