Economic Shutdown Research Articles

Quantifying Human Contributions to Near‐Surface Temperature Inversions: Insights From COVID‐19 Natural Experiments

AbstractTemperature inversion (TI) constitutes a crucial component in the physicochemical processes of the lower troposphere, but disentangling human contributions to its generation from complex environmental factors poses significant challenges. We leveraged the unique natural experiment prompted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic to estimate changes in TI incidence and temperature difference (∆T) caused by the economic shutdown in the first half of 2020 across 500 major cities worldwide. We found that ∆T declined by 2.5% and TI incidence declined by 18.2% compared to 2016–2019, exhibiting spatial‐temporal heterogeneity and pronounced declines in cities with higher levels of economic development and emission reduction. Moreover, we demonstrated that fine particulate matter (PM2.5) may serve as a mediating pathway through which human activities influence air thermal properties, and climate categories modulate this mediating effect. Our analysis provides empirical evidence of human influence on the vertical thermal structure of the atmosphere.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Tourism and Hospitality in Poland

Beyond severe illness and deaths, the COVID-19 pandemic brought widespread economic disruption, businesses closing, and unemployment surging to levels not experienced since the Great Depression. The effect of this pandemic on global tourism has been fast, extensive, widespread, and devastating. This paper identifies the significant characteristics of female entrepreneurial businesses. It examines the strategies taken between 2015 and 2022 to influence the firm's growth and reduce the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings are based on the interviews conducted with ten female entrepreneurs who own and operate small family-based entrepreneurial firms in Poland's tourism and hospitality industry. This paper aims to deliver recommendations for policy actions and entrepreneurship strategies to effectively grow and curtail or counterbalance the impact of exogenous shocks such as the economic shutdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Gender roles and political ideology in the pandemic: experimental evidence from Western Europe

The economic shutdown and national lockdown following the outbreak of COVID-19 forced families to take on tasks themselves that were previously outsourced, like child care and housecleaning. These tasks were, and to a degree still are, traditionally performed by women. The concern is that the pandemic placed these burdens again primarily on their shoulders. In this study, we examine how the lockdown-imposed difficulties to the outsourcing of essential household tasks affected views on who in the family should sacrifice their career to cope with new challenges, and how these views interacted with ideological commitments. Analyzing data collected from an experiment embedded in a representative survey of nearly 4,000 residents from five West European countries, we find that the pandemic reduced the ideological polarization between the political left and right with regards to gender roles and household tasks. However, this reduced polarization is primarily found among female respondents.

Digital Marketing in Bangladesh during the COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely devitalized the wheels of the global economy. As a part of the global economy, Bangladesh has also faced the debilitating effects of a worldwide economic shutdown. Financial, trade and commerce, economic, banking, agricultural, and industrial – all the prolific sectors seem to be heavily affected by deadly clutches of the COVID-19 pandemic both locally and globally. However, a different scenario has been observed in the digital marketing sectors around the world. Since the novel coronavirus is highly contagious and deadly and spreads out mostly in physical contact, traditional marketing, sales, shopping, and business have started debilitating from its beginning in 2020. As a consequence, online sales and digital transformation have dramatically been accelerated in Bangladesh in recent times. Though the digital marketing sector of Bangladesh is still in its infancy, our country has experienced a revolutionary rise in digital marketing due to the COVID-19 pandemic. That is, this deadly virus has shown us that this sector has huge prospects and prosperity in flourishing our enterprises and businesses through digitalization and the assistance of the ICT industry. This study aims at presenting the current scenario of digital marketing of Bangladesh amidst the COVID-19 pandemic and pointing out the challenges and drawbacks in this sector. Findings suggest that immediate policy initiatives be taken to develop the digital marketing sector of Bangladesh.

Understanding Cyber Threats Vulnerability of Future Victimization in Fintech

Individuals’ participation in online activities is expanding, and the number of businesses moving to online operations is increasing, raising the possibility that they will become victims of cybercrime. Vulnerability in a technological system refers to any flaw or weak point within a technology or network that could be used to inflict damage or give an attacker unauthorized control. On the other hand, victimization results from intentional actions by an individual or organization to exploit, harm, or unlawfully gain access to another’s assets or possessions. This research seeks to evaluate the future vulnerability of private sector employees to cybercrime when using FinTech. This study was conducted using an approach drawing from victimization theory. The study focuses on three primary factors influencing vulnerability: the economic shutdown, income inequality, and reliance on technology. The primary method for gathering data in this study was through questionnaire surveys, specifically distributed among service sector employees in Malaysia. Findings from this study show that economic shutdown (ES) due to COVID-19 and income inequality (II) have a significant positive relation with the vulnerability of future victimization in FinTech. However, reliance on technology does not significantly influence the vulnerability of future victimization in FinTech. This research contributes to the expanding body of knowledge regarding risk factors associated with future victimization in FinTech. The findings benefit companies and individuals, offering insights into areas that should be fortified to decrease vulnerability.

The impact of COVID‐19 on supply chain credit risk

While global supply chains provide firms with a buffer against local shocks, they expose firms to multiregional risks. The COVID‐19 pandemic and its differential impact on different regions in the world offer an opportunity to explore these effects. We investigate the multiregional supply chain risk by focusing on credit risk measured by abnormal credit default swaps (CDS) spreads and US–China supply chain networks. Our evidence shows that local risks propagate through global supply chains to other regions. Using a matched sample, we find that abnormal CDS spreads for firms with Chinese supply chain partners increase by 12% to 13% relative to the average raw CDS spreads due to supply chain disruptions during the economic shutdown in China, and the abnormal CDS spreads decrease by 9% to 13% relative to the average raw CDS spreads when the supply chain activities resume in China. We also find that having a more global customer base can mitigate the effects of local household demand shocks. Lastly, we discover that firm size, supply chain network centrality, cash holdings, inventory, strong credit ratings, capital redeployability, and the number of segments increase resilience to global supply chain shocks, while financial leverage, operational leverage, and market competition weaken supply chain resilience.

Forecasting the South African Real Spot-rate Curve During Covid-19 Stress

Purpose: The aim of this study is to investigate the performance of forecasting the South African real spot rate curve using different mathematical term-structure models during the Covid-19 period. This study follows previous studies by Reid (2009) and Mashoene et al., 2021) where dynamic term-structure models performed well compared to static term-structure models over normal market conditions. For high volatility, normality often breaks, which might result in a need for recalibration in the currently used methodology or a total change in the methodology.
 Methodology: This study explores the dynamism of both dynamic term-structure models, which follow the Nelson-Siegel framework, and static term-structure models with the option of recalibration of model parameters to account for a change in macro-economic dynamics brought by the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic. The forecasting exercise was applied to term-structure models following the Nelson-Siegel framework using AR(1) process.
 Findings: The incorporation of macroeconomic factors performed poorly in estimating future model parameters. This could be attributable to the effect of global stress, which resulted in poor linear relationships between macroeconomic and financial factors. Recalibration process on static Nelson-Siegel term-structure models improved the models' performance, especially during the high volatility/period of total economic shutdown due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
 Implications: The application of static Nelson-Siegel term-structure models with recalibrated parameters might improve bond pricing processes and risk management strategies in emerging markets, especially during market stress.

Associations over the COVID-19 pandemic period and the mental health and substance use of youth not in employment, education or training in Ontario, Canada: a longitudinal, cohort study

BackgroundThe economic shutdown and school closures associated with the COVID-19 pandemic have negatively influenced many young people’s educational and training opportunities, leading to an increase in youth not in education, employment, or training (NEET) globally and in Canada. NEET youth have a greater vulnerability to mental health and substance use problems, compared to their counterparts who are in school and/or employed. There is limited evidence on the association between COVID-19 and NEET youth. The objectives of this exploratory study included investigating: longitudinal associations between the COVID-19 pandemic and the mental health and substance use (MHSU) of NEET youth; and MHSU among subgroups of NEET and non-NEET youth.Methods618 youth (14–28 years old) participated in this longitudinal, cohort study. Youth were recruited from four pre-existing studies at the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health. Data on MHSU were collected across 11 time points during the COVID-19 pandemic (April 2020-August 2022). MHSU were measured using the CoRonavIruS Health Impact Survey Youth Self-Report, the Global Appraisal of Individual Needs Short Screener, and the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5. Linear Mixed Models and Generalized Estimating Equations were used to analyze associations of NEET status and time on mental health and substance use. Exploratory analyses were conducted to investigate interactions between sociodemographic characteristics and NEET status and time.ResultsAt baseline, NEET youth were significantly more likely to screen positive for an internalizing disorder compared to non-NEET youth (OR = 1.92; 95%CI=[1.26–2.91] p = 0.002). No significant differences were found between youth with, and without, NEET in MHSU symptoms across the study time frame. Youth who had significantly higher odds of screening positive for an internalizing disorder included younger youth (OR = 1.06, 95%CI=[1.00-1.11]); youth who identify as Trans, non-binary or gender diverse (OR = 8.33, 95%CI=[4.17–16.17]); and those living in urban areas (OR = 1.35, 95%CI=[1.03–1.76]), compared to their counterparts. Youth who identify as White had significantly higher odds of screening positive for substance use problems (OR = 2.38, 95%CI=[1.72–3.23]) compared to racialized youth.ConclusionsOur findings indicate that sociodemographic factors such as age, gender identity, ethnicity and area of residence impacted youth MHSU symptoms over the course of the study and during the pandemic. Overall, NEET status was not consistently associated with MHSU symptoms over and above these factors. The study contributes to evidence on MHSU symptoms of NEET youth.

Effect of Global Oil Price Volatility and Exchange Rate Policy on Foreign Exchange Reserves in Iraq

Purpose: This paper offers simulations and forecasts of the ideal currency reserve measure in light of future shocks to the Iraqi economy due to the downturn in the international price of oil and the global economic shutdown triggered by the Corona pandemic.
 
 Theoretical framework: The Iraqi foreign exchange reserves have entered a cycle of sustained and accelerated degradation in recent years and hit alarming amounts in 2020, affecting Iraq's financial stability compared to other foreign currency reserves. According to figures from the Iraqi Parliament's Financial Commission, the Iraqi fund in the Central Bank of Iraq decreased, following removing the government's second loan by the end of 2020, to $35 billion. The Fitch Ratings Agency, on the other hand, has found that Iraq's plan to slash public sector wages and pension costs will delay the reduction of currency reserves as part of the attempt to lower financial imbalances and relieve financial pressures. However, it will be difficult to enforce and risk exacerbating social disorders. According to Fitch, by the end of August (15% of projected GDP for 2020), cash funding from the Central Bank of Iraq grew to 28.5 billion Iraqi dinars from 14.1 billion Iraqi dinars at the end of May.
 
 Design/methodology/approach: The study uses an analytical approach to show the fluctuations in oil prices and their impact on the fluctuation of oil revenues and the currency-selling window that the Central Bank of Iraq applies to its foreign reserves.
 
 Findings: The systemic problem of worldwide petroleum price drops that provide longer-term estimates to estimate the decrease in petroleum prices on global oil markets explains the quick fall in Iraqi exchange reserve magnitude. Iraq's foreign reserves, mostly from oil exports, fulfill international standards. Iraq's exchange rate policy depends on the Central Bank's direct foreign currency sales. This approach reduces foreign money diversion from Iraq, preventing the central bank from maintaining exchange rate stability.
 
 Research, Practical & Social implications: The impact of foreign reserves on national financial stability is becoming more obvious as their function evolves from supplying fundamental transaction needs to fulfilling financial security criteria.
 
 Originality/value: The Iraqi dinar's value must be protected at all costs, hence the Central Bank of Iraq's foreign reserves are crucial. These reserves are affected by oil revenues, the main financier for it, and the window for selling the currency, which is the outlet for leakage from it.

Impacts of the COVID-19 economic slowdown on soybean crop yields in the United States

It is without question that the COVID-19 pandemic has taken its toll on the U.S. economy. Stay-at-home orders led to reduced vehicular traffic and widespread declines in anthropogenic emissions (e.g., nitrogen oxides (NOx)). This study is the first to explore the potential consequences of O3 changes resulting from the economic shutdown in the United States on soybean crop yields for 2020. The pandemic’s impact on surface O3 is quantified using the NOAA’s National Air Quality Forecasting Capability (NAQFC), which is based on the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for May–July 2020. The “would-be”, 2020 level business-as-usual (BAU) emissions are compared to a simulation that uses representative COVID-19 (C19) emissions. For each emissions scenario, crop exposures are calculated using the AOT40 cumulative exposure index and then combined with county-level soybean production totals to determine regional yield losses. Exposure changes ranged between – 2 and 2 ppmVhr−1. It was further shown that increased exposures (0.5 to 1.10 ppmVhr−1) in the Southeast U.S. counteracted decreased exposures (0.8 to 0.5 ppmVhr−1) in the other soybean-producing regions. As a result, corresponding yield improvements counteracted yield losses around the Mississippi River Valley and allowed for minimal improvements in soybean production loss totaling $6.5 million over CONUS.

Environmental racism and air pollution: Pre and post the COVID‐19 economic shutdown

AbstractDecades of research demonstrates that minoritized groups are disproportionately affected by swathes of harmful pollutants, including air pollution, even controlling for low income. Would significantly reducing individual car traffic help reduce the EJ gap? The systemic shock of the COVID‐19 economic shutdown, with accompanied reduction in car use, can be exploited to analyze this question. Kerr and colleagues ask this question for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), use satellite data and categorical differences, and find that majority‐minoritized tracts on average benefited more from the shutdown, but the least‐White tracts still were significantly worse off than the most‐White tracts. We further explore this question for PM2.5, one of the most harmful air pollutants, using Geographic Information System (GIS) methods to combine several different federal datasets to compare pre‐ and post‐COVID‐19 shutdown. Analyzing Census tracts, we find (1) little evidence of discrimination in the placement of PM2.5 sensors, (2) evidence of the standard EJ disproportionality for PM2.5 in both pre‐shutdown 2019 and post‐shutdown 2020, but (3) evidence of disproportionate improvement for Asians, Hispanics, and Native Americans, with concerning indications of possible harm to African Americans. This implies, as do the findings in Kerr and colleagues' study, that policies that limit gasoline‐powered car use can reduce air pollution but are unlikely to importantly alleviate US environmental racism affecting African Americans.

Investment screening put to the test of the Covid-19 Pandemic: typology, legality and externality

ABSTRACT The Covid-19 Pandemic has introduced or revived a concern in the foreign direct investment (FDI) context that was less emphasized pre-Pandemic, namely public health. This article discusses the typology of Covid-19 related FDI screening, expounds on the legality of these measures in the context of both national investment law and international investment law, and identifies the potential negative externalities to foreign investors and to the host state. Newly promulgated FDI screening measures intensify governmental intervention and scrutiny in cross-border takeovers in the health sector and beyond to protect domestic companies from being taken over by predatory foreign buyers. FDI screening during Covid-19 has become more comprehensive and inclusive in its scope than what was already considered a system capable of excessive and arbitrary use pre-Pandemic. FDI screening on grounds of public health may be justified for its legality under both national and international investment law, nonetheless certain conditions need to be satisfied. The negative externality of FDI screening during Covid-19 pertains to a concern that, if applied aggressively in practice, FDI screening might potentially result in a deterrence effect on the cross-border capital flow that is much needed for market revival after a global economic shutdown.

Stronger psychological reaction of patients in depression and remission to the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland compared to the non-clinical group.

The aim of the study was to compare the subjective mental state of patients in an ongoing episode of depression and in remission (clinical group) and the group without depressive disorders and other mental disorders in their life so far (non-clinical group) in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. During the first economic shutdown in Poland (March 12, 2020-May 3, 2020), using an anonymous online survey, we assessed the subjective mental state of 2,284 people in three groups: with an ongoing depressive episode - 265 patients, in remission - 574 patients, and without mental disorders (including depression) - 1,445 people. The outbreak of the pandemic had a negative impact on the subjective mental state of the respondents. In the group with depression, stress of varying intensity was experienced by 98.11% of the respondents, in the group in remission by 93.9%, and in the group without depression in the past by 93.43%. Depressed mood was declared by 51.32% of depressed patients, 21.60% of patients in remission and 11.97% of patients without mental disorders. Daily anxiety attacks occurred in 46.42% of patients with depression, in 20.21% of patients in remission and 5.88% of respondents in the non-clinical group. The results of the survey show that patients with an ongoing episode of depression and remission subjectively felt worse than the non-clinical group in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland. At the same time, previously healthy people also reported unusual intensification of anxiety and depressive symptoms. For this reason it is important to continue the comprehensive treatment of people with depressive disorders and to simultaneously prevent mental disorders in the non-clinical population.

Measuring the Impact of COVID-19 on Attitudes towards SOPs: A Study of Smart Lockdown across Generations in Pakistan

Countries all across the world are struggling to prevent a pandemic caused by a novel coronavirus called COVID-19. However, for a country like Pakistan, which already faces challenges such as an economic shutdown, a shortage of healthcare financing, and prevalent false beliefs, the only known approach to stop the spread of COVID-19 is through prevention and social isolation. Since public awareness of COVID-19 is essential to its containment, a survey was designed to assess its people's level of information and attitudes towards SOPs and smart lockdown across generations during COVID-19. The general population of Pakistan was asked to fill out an online questionnaire that has been pre-validated. SPSS v18 was used for the statistical analysis of descriptive data. Scores of > 4 (range: 0-8) were given for adequate knowledge, and scores of > 3 (range: 0-5) were given for good perception. To determine what elements contribute to having sufficient understanding, a logistic regression analysis was conducted. There was a wide diversity of ages and levels of education among the 102 people from selected three generations who filled out the survey. The majority of respondents had good perceptions and a sufficient level of knowledge. Gender, age, education, income and occupation of the participants, all showed statistically significant variations in knowledge and perception. Multivariate analysis revealed that higher levels of education and female were significant predictors of sufficient knowledge regarding the disease and perception. Thus, adherence to preventative protocols and accurate information dissemination depends on the success of educational activities that emphasize the cure of the disease and relevant evidence about the disease.

On the current strike wave

Emerging from global economic shutdown in 2021, some of Britain’s largest employers embarked on radical restructuring of workers’ wages and conditions by exploiting the lack of protection for workers in UK legislation to impose ‘fire and rehire’ and wage cuts. As inflation and interest rates rose sharply, trade unions resisted attacks on their members’ living standards by organising the largest strike wave for over 30 years. The current strike wave has developed from defensive strikes against attacks on jobs and wages into a broad united front of organised labour across both private and public sectors. The political resistance of the organised working class poses the real question of who runs Britain.

Investigating the success factors of small and medium-sized enterprises in sustaining business operations during COVID-19

The upheaval caused by the spread of COVID-19 made a devastating effect on businesses, especially small businesses. A huge number of small businesses cannot survive within 3 months of an economic shutdown (Ligouri & Pittz, 2020); however, some survive and maintain their business operation. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to explore the success factors in sustaining the business operation. Specifically, the intention is to investigate what are the important factors leading small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Malaysia to be able to survive and drive their business operation during the COVID-19 pandemic. A qualitative approach was employed, data was collected through interviews, and seven business owners were identified through the purposive sampling method (Tongco, 2007). The findings revealed that most SMEs are disrupted by the pandemic and struggling for funding to survive in the business. In addition, entrepreneurs adapted to the new business model and utilized the digital platform manage to survive. Moreover, continuous financial support from the government, although meant for the short term is beneficial. The findings are vital as they can be used in assisting the government to create more effective and relevant programs to assist homegrown SMEs.

확률프론티어분석(SFA)을 이용한 국내 사립대학의 재정효율성 분석

Many private universities in Korea are facing the worst financial situation at present not only due to the decreasing school-age population and their structural problems but also the impact of COVID-19. This paper aims to estimate the university’s economic shut-down point and financial efficiency scores with 115 private universities in 2020. COLS, CMAD, and SFA(exponential and truncated-normal distribution models) methods are utilized to compare the deterministic and stochastic results. As the results of empirical estimations, we have found that first, 24.3% of the private universities are at or near the shut-down point, and their average financial inefficiency was 18.9% and 7.5% measured by two SF models. Second, a striking result shows that a 1% increase in financial inefficiency lowers the university’s academic and financial performance by 2.5 times(%). This illustrates that it is important not to fall behind other universities in financial efficiency. Third, the sum of elasticities of the financial variables shows 0.57 in both SF models, decreasing returns to scale(DRS). Thus, this paper provides an implication of the importance of managing the financial efficiency for policy makers of government and universities.

Policy for temporary crisis or sustained structural change in an age of disasters, crises, and pandemics

This paper employs cases to discuss the impact of information, disinformation, and the evolution of scientific data as part of public health policy development in the COVID- 19 pandemic. The two areas of policy development center on (1) risk and public health precautions (e.g., mask mandates, cleaning protocols, and social distancing) and (2) risk and economic/travel policy (e.g., regional economic shutdown, travel restrictions, border closures). Key to the analysis is the understanding of social risk production and public trust in institutions and individuals within those institutions that craft emergency, interim, and long-lasting public policy. The paper concludes with recommendations for enhancing public trust in government institutions and the management of risks during times of disasters, crises, and pandemics.

The macroeconomics of age-varying epidemics

We incorporate age-specific socio-economic interactions in a SIR macroeconomic model to study the role of demographic factors for the COVID-19 epidemic evolution, its macroeconomic effects and possible containment measures. We capture the endogenous response of rational individuals who choose to reduce inter- and intra-generational social interactions, consumption- and labor-related personal exposure to the virus, while not internalizing the impact of their actions on others. We find that social distancing measures targeted to the elderly (who face higher mortality risk and are not part of the labor force) are best suited to save lives and mitigate output losses. The optimal economic shutdown generates small gains in terms of lives saved and large output losses, for any given type of social distancing. These results are confirmed by calibrating the model to match real epidemic and economic data in the context of a scenario exercise.

Current systematic reviews of the burden of COVID-19 pandemic in children and adolescents

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is profoundly affecting life of the children and adolescents around the globe. The authors present a synthesis of the characteristics of SARS CoV-2 infection in the pediatric population. The role played by children in the transmission of infection as well as the changes related to the clinical picture and the severity of symptoms that changed during the 5 pandemic waves. Another objectives of this review was to describe the diverse facets of the burden of COVID-19 in children and adolescents. The authors presented the direct effects of hospitalization during the acute phase of the disease, multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children, long COVID and the sequelae after infection with the new coronavirus. In addition, the indirect effects of social isolation and interruption in education are discussed. Isolation, contact restrictions and economic shutdown impose a complete change to the psychosocial environment in affected countries. Mental health problems among children and adolescents are increasingly reported amidst the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Anxiety, lack of peer contact and reduced opportunities for stress regulation are main concerns. Another main threat is an increased risk for parental mental illness, domestic violence and child maltreatment. The burden of the COVID-19 pandemic manifested in various ways: there was an increase in poverty, a major crisis arose in education, and new threats concerning children’s health and even survival emerged.