Economic Policy Research Articles

Regenerating urban cultural policy: insights on the role of crafts and small-scale production in three European cities’ visions

ABSTRACT Recent planning debates have highlighted the need to move away from standardised creative city models focusing on consumption and leisure, towards more inclusive and diverse approaches able to account for the specificity of local urban contexts and communities, as well as their productive capacity. In this framework, crafts and making practices have been regarded as possibly contributing to a more regenerative and socially just creative city policies. By analysing economic development and sectoral policy documents in the case of Marseille, Turin and Rotterdam, the study makes an empirical contribution to contemporary understandings of how craft and making activities are framed in local urban plans, while advancing our theoretical debates on the role of cultural practices in the transition to regenerative urban environments. The results shed light on the contribution of craft and small-scale production in the implementation of regenerative urban framework focusing on their role as enablers of vital, convivial and resilient urban economic and social ecosystems.

Impact of external uncertainties on internal volatility spillovers among shipping freight markets

ABSTRACT Given the unstable trading environment in past years, there is an urgent need to disentangle the relationship between internal spillovers across shipping freight markets and external uncertainties. This study addresses the issue using VAR-based approaches: First, Diebold-Yilmaz (DY) spillover indices are constructed for container, dry bulk, dirty, and clean tanker spot markets. Second, the Granger causal effects and shock effects from Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and Geopolitical Risk (GPR) to the above spillover indices are examined. Special attention is given to the post-COVID-19 period in this study. Our results prove the epidemic has shifted the roles of net spillover transmitters and receivers within the four freight markets, while also intensifying the causality and shock impacts of EPU and GPR on internal spillovers. Additionally, the results reveal that EPU and GPR influence spillovers through distinct mechanisms, with tanker markets serving as key mediators that amplify uncertainty shocks. All of these findings convey significant policy implications to shipping stakeholders.

The Uncertainty of Economic Policy: A Hinder for Financial Sustainability?

Creating a favorable and robust national financial ecosystem represents a pivotal objective for China during its new phase of development. This article employs principal component analysis to quantify trends in financial vulnerability, condition, stability, pressure, and development, collectively serving as indicators of financial market performance. Following this, the article delves deeper into the influence of uncertainty in economic policy on financial market operations by leveraging the SVAR model. The research concludes that an increase in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) initially exacerbates the fragility of the financial market, causing significant volatility and impacting its stability negatively. However, China’s financial market possesses a self-regulation mechanism that gradually mitigates and transforms this impact over time. Notably, a positive shock to EPU can alleviate financial pressure in the short term by temporarily suppressing the vitality of the market. In addition, the overall rise in EPU hinders financial development. In summary, despite the market’s self-regulatory capacity, heightened EPU still hinders financial sustainability in China. Based on this research, it is recommended that China should strengthen policy coordination and predictability to promote financial sustainability.

Analysis of Factors Affecting GRDP per Capita in Eastern Indonesia: A Panel and Spatial Model Approach in the Context of the Planned Capital Relocation (IKN)

The Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) per capita in Eastern Indonesia, particularly in provinces adjacent to the planned new capital city (IKN), is influenced by various economic and infrastructural factors. This study examines the impact of national road length, population density, foreign investment, the Human Development Index (HDI), and poverty levels on economic growth in the region. Using data from multiple provinces, the analysis employs panel data models (Pooled OLS, Fixed Effect, and Random Effect), spatial models (Spatial Durbin Model), and autoregressive tests to observe temporal relationships. The entire analysis is conducted using RStudio, allowing for efficient data processing and advanced econometric modeling. The findings indicate that infrastructure development (measured by national road length), population (in total population), and quality of life (measured by Human Development Index/HDI) have a statistically significant effect on GRDP per capita in Eastern Indonesia. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment (FDI) shows no significant influence in the model. Therefore, economic policies that incorporate spatial and temporal considerations especially those targeting infrastructure, demographic dynamics, and human development are crucial for fostering more equitable and sustainable growth across Eastern Indonesia.

Macroeconomic effects of CBDC negative interest policy in an open economy: A comparison of quantity and price rules

Macroeconomic effects of CBDC negative interest policy in an open economy: A comparison of quantity and price rules

Linking of bio-energy and carbon neutrality: Navigating economic policy uncertainty and climate change policy in the USA

Linking of bio-energy and carbon neutrality: Navigating economic policy uncertainty and climate change policy in the USA

Quantifying uncertainty in economics policy predictions: A Bayesian & Monte Carlo based data-driven approach

Quantifying uncertainty in economics policy predictions: A Bayesian & Monte Carlo based data-driven approach

Economic policy uncertainty and foreign exchange market implied volatility: A complex partial wavelet coherence approach

Economic policy uncertainty and foreign exchange market implied volatility: A complex partial wavelet coherence approach

Impact of corporate financialization constraints on export activities: Analysis of the moderating effect of economic policy uncertainty

Impact of corporate financialization constraints on export activities: Analysis of the moderating effect of economic policy uncertainty

Assessing the relative impact of inland and marine fish production on fishing load capacity factor: Insights for sustainable fisheries management.

Assessing the relative impact of inland and marine fish production on fishing load capacity factor: Insights for sustainable fisheries management.

Economic policy uncertainty and active management: Evidence from SRI funds

Economic policy uncertainty and active management: Evidence from SRI funds

Market Reactions to Sovereign Wealth Fund Formation in An Emerging Market: Price Inertia and Microstructure Volatility in Indonesia’s Danantara

This study investigates the short-term market reaction to the announcement of Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund (SWF), Danantara, using a dual-framework approach that combines price-based and microstructure-based measures. Although sovereign wealth funds are intended to boost investor confidence and attract long-term capital, the Indonesian equity market—dominated by retail investors and characterized by institutional opacity—offers a unique testing ground. The research aims to assess whether the announcement of Danantara triggered abnormal returns or changes in trading behavior and liquidity among related state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and the broader market index (IHSG). Utilizing an event study methodology, this study measured abnormal returns (AR), cumulative abnormal returns (CAR), trading volume activity (TVA), abnormal volume (AV), and Amihud illiquidity (ILLIQ) across a ±5-day window around the event date. The findings show no significant price reactions but reveal temporary spikes in trading activity and liquidity disruption, suggesting behavioral responses driven by policy uncertainty. The implications indicate that market participants in emerging economies process reforms not through valuation changes but via speculative and liquidity-driven behavior. This emphasizes the importance of transparency and follow-through in institutional reform. The study provides a replicable analytical model for emerging markets responding to top-down economic policy shifts.

Integration of Military Technologies Into Ukraine's Foreign Economic Policy

This article explores Ukraine’s shift to a wartime economy, highlighting its growing defence sector and innovation in military technology, especially UAVs. With major investments and broad mobilization, Ukraine is emerging as a resilient and strategic player in the global arms market.

A comparative analysis of currency exchange movements and economic predictors between Indonesia and the Philippines

Currency exchange movements are shaped by macroeconomic variables, including inflation, remittance inflows, and foreign exchange reserves. This study analyzes economic profiles of Indonesia and the Philippines from 2006 to 2024, employing the Mann-Whitney U test and binary logistic regression to assess the factors affecting the exchange rates. The findings indicate that inflation drives Rupiah depreciation in Indonesia, whereas its impact on the Philippine Peso is minimal. Remittances significantly impact currency depreciation in both countries, with a stronger effect in the Philippines. Additionally, foreign exchange reserves have a notable influence on Peso weakening but are less relevant for the Rupiah in this study. These results underscore the need for targeted economic policies to stabilize currencies and sustain economic growth, offering valuable insights into exchange rate dynamics in emerging economies.

Currency Shocks in Newly Industrialized Asian Countries and Global Financial Stability

Currency shocks and the stability of the global financial system play crucial roles in international trade and investment. However, there is a lack of literature that analyses these relationships, particularly in newly industrialized Asian countries. This study fills this gap by focusing on Thailand, India, and China. Employing the exchange rate (ER) and the OFR financial stress index (FSI), we conduct a comprehensive analysis. Our results show distinct relationships among these variables. In Thailand, the ER has a long-term impact on the FSI, accompanied by positive feedback between shocks. In India, the ER is highly sensitive to the FSI, with the FSI consistently triggering negative ER shocks. In China, the ER affects the FSI only in the short run, and this impact may be negatively correlated. Additionally, increased financial stress may also increase the Chinese ER on average. These findings not only reveal the diverse economic development patterns in newly industrialized countries but also offer valuable insights for policy-makers to formulate more targeted economic policies.

Social Determinants of Health and Adult Cochlear Implantation: A Scoping Review.

Cochlear implants (CIs) are a cornerstone of hearing rehabilitation for individuals with severe-to-profound hearing loss, yet they remain underutilized among eligible adults. Social determinants of health (SDOH) describe the nonmedical factors shaping health outcomes, including the conditions in which individuals live, work, and age, as well as broader influences like social norms and economic policies. These factors likely contribute to the disparity in CI utilization. This scoping review aims to identify articles addressing SDOH data and highlight gaps that may explain the underuse of CI in eligible adults. Academic journals, published articles, surveys, and observational research. To create the systematic search, a health sciences librarian collaborated with the research team to develop a relevant keyword list. An initial PubMed search was created using the keyword list and input from the researchers. In addition to input on keywords, the research team provided nine sentinel articles to test the searches against. All searches were reported by adhering to the PRISMA searching extension. Following an initial search in 2022 and an update in 2025, 29,654 articles remained eligible for the title and abstract screening. Ultimately, a total of 67 articles were eligible for inclusion. Articles were categorized by SDOH domain. While literature on the topic has expanded over time, a more comprehensive understanding of SDOH as related to CI candidates and recipients may improve access to this technology for all who could benefit. NA.

The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Firm Markups and Business Sustainability: The Moderating Effect of Irreversible Investment and Innovation

Incorporating economic policy uncertainty into the Melitz and Ottaviano theoretical model, this study systematically examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on firm markups, contributing to our understanding of how macroeconomic conditions affect business sustainability. The results reveal a significant negative relationship between economic policy uncertainty and firm markups, with particularly adverse effects observed in labor-intensive industries, smaller firms, and export-driven companies. As investment irreversibility increases, so does the detrimental impact of economic policy uncertainty on business markups. Importantly, it is discovered that innovation efforts can mitigate these negative effects, promoting sustainable business practices under high policy uncertainty. This research extends the mechanism through which EPU affects markups and highlights the critical roles of investment irreversibility and innovation behavior as moderators. By exploring these dynamics, our findings contribute to the broader discourse on sustainability by identifying strategies for enhancing corporate resilience and competitiveness amidst economic uncertainties.

Digital transformation of commercial banks and total factor productivity- an empirical study based on the SBM-ML Model

ABSTRACT The digital transformation of China’s banking industry is revitalizing commercial banks by enhancing management efficiency. This paper uses the SBM-ML model and the Peking University Commercial Bank Digitalization Index to assess how digital transformation affects total factor productivity (TFP). Results show a significant positive impact, especially under credit risk constraints. Large banks and those with lower profitability or weaker capitalization gain the most, while smaller, more profitable, or well-capitalized banks face greater resistance to digital gains. Digital transformation enhances TFP through improved risk-bearing capacity and expansion into non-traditional services. Tools like big data analytics bolster risk management, and non-interest innovations diversify income sources. Moreover, digital strategies help banks better withstand economic policy uncertainty through dynamic risk monitoring and asset optimization. These insights support tailored digital transformation strategies, aligned with bank size and resource capacity, to maximize productivity gains across China’s commercial banking sector.

Evidence of Energy-Related Uncertainties and Changes in Oil Prices on U.S. Sectoral Stock Markets

This study examines the relationship between stock prices, energy prices, and climate policy uncertainty using 11 sectoral stocks in the U.S. market. The evidence confirms that rising prices of energy commodities positively affect not only the energy and oil sector stocks but also create spillover effects across other sectors. Notably, all sectoral stocks, except Real Estate sector, show resilience to increases in crude oil and gasoline, suggesting potential hedging benefits. In addition, the findings reveal that sectoral stock returns are generally negatively affected by several types of uncertainty, including climate policy uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty, oil price uncertainty, as well as energy and environmental regulation-induced equity market volatility and the energy uncertainty index. These adverse effects are present across sectors, with few exceptions. The evidence reveals that the feedback effect between changes in climate policy uncertainty and changes in oil prices has an adverse impact on stock returns. Omitting these uncertainty factors from analyses could lead to biased estimates in the relationship between stock prices and energy prices.

Uncertainty about Economic Policy and Decisions to Engage in Real Earnings Management: Evidence from Indonesia’s Capital Market

Introduction/Main Objectives: This study examines whether economic policy uncertainty (EPU) influences managers’ choice to engage in real earnings management (EM) in the Indonesian capital market. Background Problems: As a major driver of aggregate economic growth and business cycles, EPU may induce information asymmetry, affect the quality of financial reporting, and raise concerns about how macroeconomic conditions may impact how managers behave in managing reported accounting numbers. Novelty: This study explains how the lean against the wind theory and the lean with the wind theory affect real EM behavior in emerging markets. In addition, this study considers the endogeneity problem, which has frequently been overlooked in similar studies, and provides a robust analysis utilizing a variety of tests to validate the proposed hypothesis. Research Methods: This study investigates 1,800 firm-year observations represented by 200 Indonesian publicly listed firms from all industries that have data available, except the banking and financial industries, from 2012 to 2020.The researchers employ time-series cross-sections, pooled ordinary least squares (OLS),and robust standard errors clustered by years. Finding/Results: EPU causes managers to engage in more real EM. This result holds for a series of robustness tests, including testing by using a presidential election for alternative measurements for EPU. From additional analysis, this study reveals that the effect of EPU on real EM is more significant for more profitable firms. Conclusion: This study supports the lean against the wind theory for emerging markets. This evidence implies that EPU conditions induce managers to engage in more real earnings management in emerging market firms, and the uncertain environment can reduce the quality of financial information .