Measure Of Economic Policy Uncertainty Research Articles

Evaluating economic uncertainty measures for India

ABSTRACT This paper constructs macroeconomic uncertainty (MEU) measures for India following methodology and evaluates them with widely used measures of VIX and economic policy uncertainty (EPU). We estimate a series of time-varying parametric vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) models to evaluate the relative macroeconomic effects of alternative uncertainty proxies for three uncertain periods. Results suggest that responses of macroeconomic variables following a shock to MEU produce theoretically consistent and significant results, whereas VIX and EPU do not. Further, results indicate that MEU maps episodes of identified uncertainty periods more efficiently and is less volatile than VIX and EPU measures.

Economic policy uncertainty and cost rigidity: the moderating effects of government contracts and political connections

PurposeThis study examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and managers' ex ante strategic choice on firms’ fixed and variable costs structure, i.e. cost rigidity and the moderating effect of government contracts and political connections.Design/methodology/approachUsing a sample of 4,162 US firms during 2003–2019 and EPU measure from Baker et al. (2016), the authors examine the association between EPU and cost rigidity using multivariate regression analysis. The authors also examine the moderating effects of government customers and political connections using the subsampling method.FindingsThis study finds that increases in EPU leads to higher cost rigidity, suggesting that managers tend to look ahead and make an ex ante commitment to invest more in fixed costs to avoid congestion costs in anticipation of future product demand during EPU. The study also finds that the presence of government customers and political connections moderates the need for adopting greater cost rigidity.Research limitations/implicationsThis study measures firms' cost rigidity based on archival data. Future studies could utilize managers' cost structure choices using firms' internal management cost structure forecasts data to measure cost rigidity to examine the relationship between cost rigidity and EPU.Practical implicationsThis study demonstrates that managers tend to make a proactive commitment to invest in fixed inputs when facing demand uncertainty from EPU to avoid congestion costs. This study also highlights the value of having government contracts and political connections by demonstrating that managers are less concerned about the congestion costs, hence weakening the impact of EPU on cost rigidity when they have government as major customers and/or political connections.Originality/valueThis study extends the management accounting literature by documenting that cost rigidity is related to EPU and that the relationship between cost rigidity and EPU also depends on whether the firm has government as major customers and/or political connections or not.

Asset redeployability, sustainability, and managerial prudence: evidence from economic policy uncertainty

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to shed light on the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on asset redeployability. Capitalizing on a novel measure of asset redeployability, the authors explore the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on redeployable assets using a unique text-based measure of EPU. Asset redeployability is an important aspect of sustainability that has been largely overlooked. More redeployable assets can be repurposed for a variety of uses, lessening the necessity for new products and thus conserving natural resources.Design/methodology/approachIn addition to the standard regression analysis, the authors execute a variety of robustness checks, i.e. propensity score matching, entropy balancing, instrumental-variable analysis, GMM dynamic panel data analysis and use Oster’s (2019) approach for testing coefficient stability. Importantly, the authors incorporate firm fixed effects in the analysis, which helps mitigate endogeneity due to unobservable firm characteristics.FindingsBased on an immense sample of over 200,000 observations over three decades, the results reveal that greater uncertainty raises asset redeployability significantly. The findings corroborate the managerial prudence hypothesis. The future deployment of assets is less predictable in times of increased uncertainty. Consequently, during uncertain times, it is more prudent to have assets that can be redeployed for multiple purposes.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to explore the impact of EPU on asset redeployability, which is a critical aspect of sustainability that has rarely been investigated in the literature. The authors fill this important void in the literature. The authors extend the literature in EPU, asset redeployability as well as sustainability.

Does economic policy uncertainty matter for a firm's leverage and speed of adjustment?

PurposeThis research intends to investigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the firm's leverage and its adjustment speed.Design/methodology/approachThis study applies dynamic panel data modeling by using a partial adjustment model. The study is based on secondary data of the non-financial firms that are listed on the Pakistan stock exchange. For the analysis purpose, the study applies the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation technique and uses a newly developed text-based measure of economic policy uncertainty.FindingsThe results show the negative impact of EPU on leverage decisions but a positive impact of EPU on leverage speed of adjustment for both, short-run and long-run economic policy shocks. Additional analysis reveals that the negative influence of long-run policy shocks on leverage decisions is moderated through profitability, and the negative influence of short-run policy shocks on leverage is moderated through firm size, tangibility and available growth prospects. However, the significant positive impact of EPU on the leverage speed of adjustment in both short and long-term policy shocks indicates that the speed of adjustment for these firms is not affected by policy shocks.Originality/valueThis research contributes to the existing literature on capital structure dynamics,by investigating the impact of EPU on firm financing decisions and estimating the adjustment speed of capital structure in a developing market context. The study also extends the existing literature by applying the concept of long-run and short-run economic policy uncertainty in the capital structure dynamic framework. Additionally, the new news-based measure of EPU is used. Moreover, it also looks into the COVID-19 effect on the relationship.

Economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, market sentiment, and regional stocks: asymmetric analyses of the EU sectors

The purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), and market sentiment (VIX) on European Union (EU) stocks by sectors of economic activity. The design and methodological approach of our research are rooted in parametric and nonparametric quantile-based techniques. We employ monthly data covering eleven sectors of economic activity in addition to GPR, Global EPU, European Union EPU, United States EPU, and VIX. Our dataset covers the period between February 2013 and September 2022. Our findings show a generally low predictive power of the considered EPU measures on the stock returns of the EU sectors. Notwithstanding, the analysis reveals that EPU from the EU has the highest predictive ability on the EU sectoral stock returns while EPU from the US has no significant predictive ability on the stock returns from the EU. Our findings also highlight the asymmetric effects of various EPUs on EU stocks. Moreover, certain sectoral exposure to EU stocks, found to serve just as diversifiers in normal market conditions, could become a hedge and safe-haven against GPR in extreme economic conditions. Our findings also highlight the role of the VIX as a good gauge to hedge against the downside risks of the EU stocks. The originality of our work is two-fold. First, we extend the study of how global factors influence the EU stock market to the most recent period including the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Second, we perform this study on a sectoral basis. Therefore, the value of our findings is that they provide notable implications for market regulation and portfolio management.

The effect of uncertainty on stock market volatility and correlation

In this study, we use an extension of the heterogeneous autoregressive model to investigate the influence of time-varying risk aversion and macroeconomic, financial, and economic policy uncertainty measures on stock market volatility and correlation. Based on the findings, there is a stronger predictive ability of these variables at the monthly frequency than at the daily frequency. We also highlight the importance of risk aversion, which, alongside fundamental factors, reflects investor sentiment in predicting stock market volatility. Meanwhile, although uncertainty variables, such as economic uncertainty and financial uncertainty, are important, the widely used variable, economic policy uncertainty, is not helpful for predicting stock market volatility. Moreover, there is evidence of higher economic value and reduced portfolio risk when including risk aversion and economic uncertainty in international portfolio analysis.

Mechanisms Underlying Geopolitical Shocks and Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from China

ABSTRACT Geopolitical uncertainty imposes a significant impact on stock prices in the stock market. We construct dynamic estimations of geopolitical risk exposure of individual stocks listed in China and examine the relationship between individual geopolitical risk and future stock price crash risk. Our results show that geopolitical risk is a more prominent macro factor than economic policy uncertainty measure that affects stock price crash risk. Investigating the underlying mechanism, we find that firms with highly synchronized stock prices, low analyst coverage ratio, low institutional holdings, and large investor heterogeneity tend to be affected more by geopolitical shocks, leading to future stock price crashes. This study shows the importance of promoting efficient information transmission system and improving corporate governance.

How Does Firm-Level Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Corporate Innovation? Evidence from China

Innovation is the main driving force of the sustainable development of enterprises. Economic policy uncertainty has increased dramatically in recent years due to events such as COVID-19, which will alter the business environment of enterprises and ultimately affect their innovation behavior. How economic policy uncertainty will affect corporate innovation has become a crucial topic, but empirical studies have not reached consistent conclusions, and few have noted the heterogeneity of different firms’ perceptions of uncertainty. This study used a textual analysis approach to create firm-level economic policy uncertainty indicators from the texts of annual reports of Chinese A-share listed firms. Based on the effectiveness of our measure of economic policy uncertainty, we further examined its impact on firm innovation. We find that our uncertainty measure has negative effects on enterprise innovation activity, and this negative impact is more significant among non-state-owned enterprises, and firms with higher financial constraints and lower government subsidies. We extend the measurement of economic policy uncertainty from the micro level and provide some suggestions for policymakers at the macro level. In the period of increasing uncertainty in the external environment, the government should try to maintain the stability and transparency of economic policies, and provide more targeted policy support to enterprises, such as by broadening their financing channels and providing innovation subsidies.

Economic policy uncertainties and institutional ownership in India

Extant literature has widely examined the role of various antecedents of institutional ownership across the world. Majorly, literature has examined the role of corporate governance and firm-level characteristics on institutional ownership. However, scarce empirical literature exists on the role of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on institutional ownership. In this study, I examine the effect of various EPU measures on institutional ownership, using longitudinal data of Indian listed firms from 2001 to 2019. I find that the firm level exposure to both global and country-level economic policy uncertainties affect institutional ownership in India. Further, this study observes the contagion effect of uncertainties in developed economies like the USA and peer emerging economies like China on the institutional ownership in India. Various EPU measures are constructed following Baker et al. (2016). Further, I find that foreign institutional ownership in India is majorly driven by the global EPU.

Firm-level political risk and dividend payout

We use a novel measure of firm-level political risk based on a textual search technique on firms' quarterly earnings conference transcripts to explain dividend payouts in publicly listed U.S. firms. We find a positive and significant effect of firm-level political risk on dividend payouts, particularly in uncertainties related to economics, institutions, technology, trade, and security. The effect is more pronounced in firms with better corporate governance, less analyst follow-up, and higher growth opportunities. These results support the signaling role of dividends rather than the role of agency theory in explaining dividend payouts when firms are associated with higher levels of political risk. We also find the effect to be prominent after controlling for an aggregate measure of economic policy uncertainty and in poor economic conditions and in major political event periods. We address endogeneity concerns by running placebo tests and conducting instrumental variable analysis and we alleviate self-selection bias by performing propensity score matching technique.

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Earnings Management of Listed Companies

Taking 273 listed companies from 2011 to 2019 as the research sample, we have a total of 2730 balanced panel data. And we uses the Uncertainty Index of China Economic Policy constructed by Baker et al. (2016) as the measure of economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Besides, using the Jones model and Roychowdhury's calculation method respectively, with accrual earnings management (EM) and real earnings management (REM) as the explained variables, the paper constructs a multiple regression model. Using STATA15.1 empirical analysis, it is found that the level of economic policy uncertainty increases, and listed companies reduce accrued earnings management activities and real earnings management activities.

Macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks: Evidence from Korea

This paper proposes a new measure of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) for Korea by fine-tuning the keywords and exploiting information drawn from a wide variety of local newspapers. The uniqueness of our new EPU index lies mainly in the fact that it uses a set of keywords that correspond much more closely to actual language use and better reflect the economic environment of Korea, which is classified as a small open economy. After shocks to EPU being identified, we employ these shocks to estimate the impulse responses using local projections. Unlike the existing measure, our results show that shocks to EPU lead to a significant decline in macroeconomic aggregates such as output, consumption, investment, and employment. Thus our results suggest a refinement of the EPU index in general for other countries accordingly. We also develop policy-specific uncertainty indices and show that they capture important historical events related to the corresponding policies, such as monetary and fiscal measures.

Uncertainty and predictability of real housing returns in the United Kingdom: A regional analysis

AbstractThe predictability of uncertainty for real housing returns in the United Kingdom is examined using regional data covering 12 regions, namely, East Midlands, East of England, London, North East, North West, Northern Ireland, Scotland, South East, South West, Wales, West Midlands, and Yorkshire and the Humber. We utilize both housing price uncertainty (HPU) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) data while we render analyses for three data samples—full sample and two subsamples covering the periods before and after the emergence of global financial crisis (GFC). Relying on a predictive model that accounts for the salient characteristics of the data, we find a negative relationship between HPU and real housing returns, on the average, regardless of the region analyzed. Also, the model that accounts for HPU outperforms the benchmark model that ignores it while controlling for relevant covariates further improves the forecast performance. Additional analyses involving the EPU measure depict lower predictive contents for house price movements relative to the HPU measure and therefore using sector‐specific uncertainty measure is crucial for more precise forecasts of real housing returns.

Economic Policy Uncertainty and International Tourism Demand: A Global Vector Autoregressive Approach

In a globalized environment, a major shock or event can reverberate across tourism interdependent countries over time. This paper aims to empirically examine how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) emanating from a large country may influence inbound and outbound tourism in other countries. Using Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model and two alternative measures of EPU, the study finds the modeled effects of EPU are dependent on the source of EPU measures, level of internationalization, and type of trade-weights used. Notably, the results show the “decline-rebound-overshoot” effect of EPU shock on tourism demand, and capture the link between capital flight and outbound travel from China in times of surge in EPU. This research highlights that GVAR is able to capture previously unobserved empirical insights because assessing the international impact of shocks such as economic crises, pandemics, and political instability necessitates accounting for cross-sectional interdependence in tourism flows between many countries.

LGBT-supportive corporate policies, risk aversion and mitigation and economic policy uncertainty

PurposeThe paper aims to investigate the effect of uncertain times on LGBT-supportive corporate policies, exploiting a novel text-based measure of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) that was recently constructed by Baker et al. (2016). LGBT-supportive policies have attracted a great deal of attention in the media lately. There is also a rapidly growing area of the literature that addresses LGBT-supportive policies specifically.Design/methodology/approachThe authors execute a regression analysis and several other robustness checks including propensity score matching (PSM) and an instrumental-variable analysis to mitigate endogeneity.FindingsThe authors' results show that companies significantly raise their investments in LGBT-supportive policies in times of greater uncertainty, reinforcing the risk mitigation view where LGBT-supportive policies create moral capital with an insurance-like effect that mitigates adverse consequences during uncertain times. The effect of EPU on LGBT-supportive policies is above and beyond its effect on corporate social responsibility (CSR) in general.Originality/valueThe authors' study is the first to explore the effect of uncertain times on LGBT-supportive corporate policies. The authors contribute to a crucial area of the literature that examines how firms respond to EPU. In addition, the authors enrich the literature on LGBT-friendly policies by showing that EPU is one of the significant determinants of LGBT-friendly policies.

On the effectiveness of the European Central Bank’s conventional and unconventional policies under uncertainty

In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures by the European Central Bank (ECB) conditional on the prevailing level of uncertainty. To obtain exogenous variation in central bank policy, we rely on high-frequency surprises in financial market data for the euro area (EA) around policy announcement dates. We trace the dynamic effects of shocks to the short-term policy rate, forward guidance and quantitative easing on several key macroeconomic and financial quantities alongside survey-based measures of expectations. For this purpose, we propose a Bayesian smooth-transition vector autoregression (ST-VAR), using a measure of economic policy uncertainty as signal variable. Our results suggest that transmission channels are impaired when uncertainty is elevated. While conventional monetary policy and forward guidance can be less effective during such periods, quantitative easing measures seem to work comparatively well in uncertain times.

The effects of economic policy uncertainty on stock market returns: Evidence from Brazil

This article investigates the effects of economic policy uncertainty on the Brazilian stock market. We link excess returns and dividend growth rates to the economic policy uncertainty index of Baker et al. (2016) and other control variables. In recent years, Brazil has experienced political tensions, which affected its economic policy. Therefore, this country is the most suitable environment to test the hypothesis that this measure of economic policy uncertainty has an informational content not wholly reflected in the usual constructs of economic uncertainty and economic distress. Our results show that economic policy uncertainty (i) correlates negatively with current excess stock returns; (ii) correlates positively with future excess stock returns, showing itself to be a good predictor of future performance of the stock market; (iii) is not significantly related to future dividend growth rates; and (iv) anticipates changes in discount rates.

Does economic policy uncertainty matter for financial reporting quality? Evidence from the United States

We examine the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the financial reporting quality of US firms over 1999–2015. We use accruals-based earnings management as a proxy for financial reporting quality and the index of Baker et al. (Quart J Econ 131:1539–1636, 2016) as an EPU measure to show that they exhibit a positive and significant association. We also find a causal effect by employing three political polarization instruments for EPU. In a cross-sectional analysis, we further show that the positive relationship between EPU and earnings management strengthens for firms operating in politically sensitive industries, for firms in more financial distress, and during recessionary periods. We also provide evidence that increased financial constraints facilitate the positive relationship between EPU and earnings management. These findings are robust to the use of alternative measures of economic policy uncertainty and when we employ real earnings management as a dependent variable. These results indicate that managers aim to provide outsiders with an improved financial position of the company when EPU is high. Our findings suggest that investors, analysts, creditors, and regulators should be wary of firms’ financial reporting quality in periods of high economic policy uncertainty.

Fiscal policy uncertainty and its effects on the real economy: German evidence

AbstractThis article introduces a new measure of fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU) based on the disagreement among professional forecasters. We analyse different patterns of this measure for the German economy and also use Italian data for comparison. Especially, we examine the impact of the introduction of the German ‘debt brake’ on FPU. Finally, we conduct an impulse response analysis to investigate the effect of FPU on the real economy and we provide robust evidence that FPU significantly decreases the growth rate of industrial production. The corresponding effect is robust to various sensitivity checks and exceeds the impact of a general measure of economic policy uncertainty. In general, the negative effect on the real economy might be explained by lower hiring and investment by firms, higher costs of financing due to risk premia and lower consumption spending as a result of precautionary savings.

Predicting equity premium using news-based economic policy uncertainty: Not all uncertainty changes are equally important

This study contributes to the growing research that uses the news-based measure of U.S. economic policy uncertainty (EPU) suggested in Baker et al. (2016) to predict economic variables out-of-sample. Using simple predictive regressions à la Goyal and Welch (2008), we evaluate the predictive power afforded by various nonlinear transformations of the U.S. EPU measure suggested in Baker et al. (2016) to predict excess returns on the S&P 500 index one-month ahead. Using data from 1985m1 through 2020m12, we find that not all EPU movements are equally important for obtaining point prediction improvements relative to the historical average benchmark at the population level. Particularly, we document that the one-year net EPU increase, defined as EPU increases beyond the peak over the last year, otherwise zero delivers the most consistent pattern of prediction improvements relative to the benchmark. Conversely, other nonlinear specifications as well as the linear models using log-EPU and the first difference of log-EPU do not deliver the same performance. Overall, this study documents that the predictive impact of the U.S. EPU index suggested in Baker et al. (2016) on equity premium is nonlinear in that EPU increases matter only to the extent that they exceed the maximum value over the last twelve months. In other words, there is evidence of threshold nonlinearity. The statistical predictive power afforded by the one-year net EPU increase also translates into economic gains.