Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Research Articles

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment: Empirical Evidence from Vietnam

The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is an important indicator that influences the corporate financial and investment behavior of companies. In this study, the corporate investment behavior from 2018 to 2020 of 354 non-financial firms listed in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange is analyzed to determine how businesses respond to changes in the Global EPU index and to determine how Leverage, Cash flow, Tobin’s Q, Size, and Sales Growth affect business investment. In addition, the research also examined how corporate investment differs between state-owned companies and non-state-owned companies. The data was hand collected and analyzed by Pooled OLS Regression and Fixed-Effect Model through STATA software to determine the relationship between corporate investment and explanatory variables. The results of the study indicate that the correlation between corporate investment and the global EPU index is inversely proportional. This study also proves that the increase of leverage ratio is a factor that helps business investment growth.

A time-varying analysis between economic uncertainty and tourism development in Singapore.

Tourism development (TO) is seen as a viable solution to address economic policy uncertainty (EPU) risks. However, previous studies have largely ignored the relationship between short, medium, and long term by decomposing TO and EPU index at different time-frequency scales, especially in Singapore. In this study, the Wavelet tools analysis and a rolling window algorithm are employed to re-visit the causal relationship between EPU, industrial production index (IPI), government revenue (GR), and tourism development (TO) in Singapore from January 2003 to February 2022. The findings revealed the heterogeneous effects of EPU on TO at different time horizons in terms of importance and magnitude over time. A rise in EPU results in a decline in TO at the low frequencies, indicating that EPU has a detrimental effect on TO over the short term. Conversely, in the long term, an increase in TO results in a decrease in EPU. Furthermore, the outcome also indicated that there is a uni-directional causality running from TO to EPU, GR and IPI. Expressly, we confirm that the negative co-movement is more pronounced in the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis, particularly for EPU, and GR at low-medium frequencies throughout the research period. The findings provide tourism policymakers with insight to develop strategic plans for tourism development that consider the effects of economic policy uncertainty. By understanding how uncertainty impacts tourism, governments can tailor development strategies to mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities.

Economic policy uncertainty and equity index in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries: accounting for multiple structural breaks in a panel framework

Economic policy uncertainty and equity index in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries: accounting for multiple structural breaks in a panel framework

A news-based economic policy uncertainty index for Nigeria

AbstractIn this study, we develop the first daily news-based Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index for Nigeria, which was previously not covered in recent EPU indices. The need to track economic uncertainties in Nigeria becomes crucial for investment and policy, especially with the renewed interest in the country as an important investment destination. To construct the EPU index, we use relevant keywords from articles in prominent newspapers in the country, covering the aftermath of the global financial crisis and the COVID pandemic, with a data scope of January 2010 to November 2022. We evaluate the predictability of the index by examining its connection with economic and financial variables like exchange rates, stock prices, and inflation in Nigeria. The results are robust to alternative model specifications, data frequencies, and multiple forecast horizons. We hope to extend this exercise to other useful indices, including Geopolitical Risk, Financial Stress Indicators, and Monetary Policy Uncertainty, which are not readily available for Africa, including Nigeria.

Economic uncertainty, risk-taking incentives and production management

PurposeThis study aims to validate the link between production manipulation and a firm’s performance variability (fundamentals and stock returns). It explores whether executives' risk-taking incentives encourage production deviations around the normal level during uncertainty.Design/methodology/approachUtilizing panel data of manufacturing firms from Compustat over three decades, the study investigates production management practices during economic uncertainty. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) is employed as a key metric. The empirical strategy involves documenting the effect of economic uncertainty on overproduction and underproduction, examining the role of executive compensation and assessing the impact on risk.FindingsThe research finds that risk-taking incentives increase over/underproduction, particularly amplifying the extent of underproduction during uncertainty. Production deviation rises, indicating that firms take greater risk by engaging in abnormal business operations. The study’s results are robust against various econometric methods, emphasizing the influence of risk-taking incentives on corporate production decisions.Research limitations/implicationsWhile providing valuable insights, the study acknowledges inherent limitations, including factors influencing production decisions beyond risk-taking incentives. Further research could explore additional determinants for a comprehensive understanding.Practical implicationsThe findings highlight the potential dark side of executive compensation that motivates suboptimal risk-taking decisions, impacting risk, cost of capital and firm performance. Policymakers and compensation committees can use these insights to design efficient systems that mitigate moral hazard problems associated with productivity changes.Social implicationsThe study emphasizes the broader social implications of production manipulation under uncertainty. It prompts discussions on the ethical considerations of managerial opportunism, its potential consequences for stakeholders and market dynamics.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature by examining the role of economic uncertainty on production manipulation and the influence of risk-taking incentives. It extends the earnings management literature by considering real activity manipulation and emphasizing the importance of decomposing production deviation into positive and negative values.

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Index: Fresh Insights from Augmented-ARDL and Multiple Structural Breaks

This study provides unique insights into the link between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and stock market index in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Basically, the dearth of evidence in this perspective, especially in the context of SSA motivates this new assessment. Thus, on account of the monthly longitudinal series for 11 SSA countries over 2014M1–2023M6, the novel multiple structural break test in panel (MSBP) and cross-sectional ARDL (CS-ARDL) provide the following upshots: first, the high level of EPU worsens the region’s stock index in the short run; second, there is a long-term negative but insignificant effect of EPU on the stock index; third, EPU significantly reduces the stock index in the three identified structural break regimes, but outside it, it is insignificant; fourth, the devastating influence of EPU on stock prices is more pronounced during the COVID-19 era demonstrating that the response of the region’s stock market to EPU is highly sensitive to global shocks. The policy implication from the major findings is for the government authorities to put up plans that can strengthen the stock markets’ resilience to economic policy-induced uncertainty.

The spillover effects of U.S. uncertainties on the systemic tail risk of Chinese enterprises

This study examines the impact of U.S. uncertainties, as indicated by the Macroeconomic Uncertainty Index (MU), Financial Uncertainty Index (FU), and Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU), on the systemic tail risk within Chinese enterprises. Our findings reveal a significant positive relationship between U.S. uncertainties and systemic tail risk of Chinese enterprises. Additionally, this relationship is mediated through two main transmission channels—investor sentiment and financing constraints.

Unlocking the dynamic linkages between sustainable equity investment and economic policy uncertainty: An empirical analysis for G‐20 countries

AbstractThe study examines the dynamic relationships between sustainable equity investment and economic policy uncertainty of G‐20 countries using monthly environmental, social, and governance (ESG) equity and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices. Using the autoregressive distributed lag model and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model models, the study finds a negative long‐run relationship between sustainable equity investments and economic policy uncertainties in Australia, Canada, the USA, Brazil, Mexico, Germany, Italy, and Japan. Investors in these G20 countries may perceive that companies with higher ESG performance are more likely to face regulatory scrutiny, legal action, or reputational damage if they are associated with high levels of economic policy uncertainties. As a result, ESG market indices may underperform when EPU is high and vice versa. It supports prospect theory and suggests that individuals are more sensitive to potential losses than gains. On the contrary, the relationship is positive in the case of the USA, Brazil, China, and to some extent India. This might be because firms with high ESG performance could manage risks better and seize opportunities associated with EPU, which helps ESG market indices to outperform when EPU is high. It is supported by the legitimacy theory that says to maintain the legitimacy and credibility of the company, the investment must be invested in ESG initiatives, which can lead to improved long‐term financial performance and market value.

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Innovation: Evidence from China Energy Enterprises

ABSTRACT This research investigates the correlation between economic policy uncertainty and corporate innovation by investigating Chinese energy enterprises yearly during the period from 2001 to 2019. The empirical finding shows a positive effect of economic policy uncertainty on energy corporate innovation (i.e. patent and R&D expenditure), no matter for the traditional energy sample or renewable ones. Next, we find a mediating effect of corporate social responsibility on the nexus between variables, in which higher corporate social responsibility promotes a positive effect on energy corporate innovation. We then examine the moderating effects of government subsidy and financial constraints, presenting that diminishing effects exist in the positive influence of economic policy uncertainty on energy corporate innovation. We also divide the time period into before and after the 2008 global financial crisis and employ a new and more detailed economic policy uncertainty index for robust analysis. Overall, we demonstrate a positive nexus between economic policy uncertainty and energy corporate innovation variables and offer policy implications for governments and energy market participants.

The Causal Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Changes in Exchange Rates and Volatility: Empirical Evidence from Türkiye

Applying a novel econometric method, nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach, this paper investigates the causal effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on Turkish changes in exchange rates and volatility with the monthly data spanning from February 1998 to December 2019. This approach of gives an opportunity to investigate the (non)causality in the θ-th quantile only in mean (first moment,i.e., m=1) or variance (second moment,i.e.,m=2) as well as the (non)causality in the mean and variance (m=1 and 2) successively. In sum, this approach calculates volatility by squaring returns. We use EPU indexes of the United States, Australia, European Union, Japan, Canada, and the United Kingdom and their currencies (USD, AUD, EUR, JPY, CAD, GBP, respectively) vis-à-vis Turkish Lira (TRY) and find that the EPUs of Australia, the European Union and Japan affect the returns of the AUD/TRY, EUR/TRY and JPY/TRY exchange rates, respectively. These results show that the EPU indices of these countries can give an idea about the returns and volatility of the relevant Turkish changes in exchange rates. The findings of this paper provide important implications for policymakers, investors, firms, exporters, and importers. Also, some studies can be carried out on the effects of the EPU index that will be created to Türkiye on the Turkish exchange rates or the other Turkish financial assets.

The effects of economic uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty on banks’ loan loss provision in Brazil

This paper investigates the effects of economic uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty on banks’ loan loss provision in Brazil, and it seeks to identify which uncertainties have the greatest impact on loan loss provisions. Regarding uncertainties, it is possible to proxy economic uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty through disagreements among professional forecasters and through news-based proxies. Thus, as a novelty, disagreements among professional forecasters are used to proxy both economic and economic policy uncertainties, and for checking robustness, news-based proxies are employed. The disagreements in expectations are divided into two groups: the first focuses on uncertainties related to economic policy instruments (i.e., monetary policy interest rate and primary surplus), and the second on uncertainties related to economic outcomes (i.e., inflation, exchange rate, GDP growth, and public debt). Regarding the news-based proxies of economic policy uncertainty and economic uncertainty, two indicators were employed: the first is the Economic Policy Uncertainty index, and the second is the index of economic uncertainty unrelated to economic policy that we calculate. Based on dynamic panel data analysis for 125 Brazilian banks, the findings suggest uncertainties in economic outcomes have greater influence on banking provisions than uncertainties in economic policy. The study validates the results using news-based indexes and a subsample representing the post-global financial crisis period.

The Moderating Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Relationship Between Working Capital Management and Profitability: Evidence from UK Non-Financial Firms

Uncertainty in economic policy is one of many factors that can have an impact on the relationship between working capital and profitability. The corporate sector places a higher priority on working capital management that employs its working capital resources to have an advantage over rivals. The objective of our study is to determine how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index for UK, as measured based on newspaper coverage frequency, affects the relationship between working capital management (CCC), return on operating assets, and other profitability measures across several businesses listed on the UK stock exchange for the years 2006 to 2021. To analyze the data for 199 UK manufacturing companies, we applied the Fixed Effect Method, Random Effect Method, and two-stage Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to tackle the endogeneity problem and report robust findings. The findings of the study revealed that EPU statistically significantly affected the relationship between CCC and profitability. When uncertainty is high, companies may be hesitant to make investments or develop new products, which can lead to a reduction in working capital and lower profitability. Companies that can effectively manage their working capital in the face of uncertainty may be better positioned to maintain their profitability over the long term. This study can provide valuable insights for both companies and investors, helping to improve financial performance and enhance strategic decision-making regarding their working capital management policies in the face of economic policy uncertainty.

Managing bank liquidity hoarding during uncertain times: The role of board gender diversity

AbstractThis paper examines the effect of executive board gender diversity on the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and bank liquidity hoarding (LH). We focus on the Russian banking sector, which, relative to most of the world, has a high share of women on bank executive boards. Using the news‐based EPU index developed by Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016) and LH measures proposed by Berger, Guedhami, Kim, and Li (2022), we exploit a unique dataset from the Russian banking sector. While higher economic policy uncertainty tends to increase liquidity hoarding, we find that this effect diminishes as the gender diversity of the board increases. We attribute this finding to the moderating influence of gender diversity on stability and overreaction in decision‐making. Additionally, we find that the channel through which board gender diversity affects the impact of economic policy uncertainty on liquidity hoarding takes place via the hoarding of liquid assets. Our findings are robust to the use of alternative measures for economic policy uncertainty and gender diversity and hold after addressing endogeneity concerns. As women are still significantly under‐represented on bank boards in most countries, these results argue for policies to promote gender diversity on bank boards as a means of limiting the detrimental effects of economic policy uncertainty.

Corporate Investment and Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Index Evidence from India

The author examined the relationship between the capital expenditure to total assets (CETA) ratio and the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index, as well as a few firm-specific financial and two macroeconomic variables in the Indian context. Logistic Regression and quantile regression are used to evaluate secondary data from 50 listed companies on India's National Stock Exchange (NSE) from 2014 to 2023 (January to December). The author found that as uncertainty increases, the sample companies' investment in assets decreases and vice versa. The study's originality is the use of EPU index data in an Indian context, which has rarely been done in previous studies. The findings have consequences for the promoter in understanding the impact of uncertainty in investment decisions, as well as for the government in reducing uncertainty in order to create a more stable economic environment.

Construction and analysis of uncertainty indices based on multilingual text representations

The work by Baker et al. (2016), who propose a dictionary based method and estimate the level of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on the occurrence of specific terms in ten leading newspapers in the USA, is among the first ones to detect the potential of text data in economic research. Following this line of research, this paper proposes automated approaches to construction of EPU indices for different countries based on newspapers’ texts. Multilingual fastText word embeddings, (S)BERT embeddings, and a novel multilingual topic modeling approach are used to construct EPU indices for Germany, Russia, and Ukraine. It is shown that constructed EPU indices based on multilingual word embeddings are Granger causal to the economic activity in all of the considered countries.

Economic policy uncertainty: Global energy security with diversification

Global energy security is a growing worldwide concern in the presence of high economic policy uncertainty (EPU) that can be addressed by advancing sustainable energy diversification (ED) practices. Energy security can be estimated by combining ED and EPU indices; hence, this study uses a dataset covering three continents and 26 countries from 1995 to 2023 to measure energy security employing this approach. The study employs quantile regression and panel data analysis, finding a positive relationship between EPU and ED. The results reveal that when EPU increases, the spectrum of energy sources declines, negatively impacting energy security. Other factors of globalization, Gross Domestic Product, gross capital formation, and the labor force also have an impact on the spectrum of energy sources. To obtain a sustainable level of ED, policymakers should increase investment in gross capital formation because economic growth and openness via pro-global policies have less impact on ED. This study also demonstrates that labor capital shifts have a significant effect on ED. The quantitative results reveal the importance of clear and precise economic policies for increasing investment in carbon-free energy security.

Economic uncertainty, public debt and non-performing loans in the Eurozone: Three systemic crises

Recent systemic crises, from the Global Financial Crisis to Covid19 pandemic, have put geoeconomic uncertainty to the forefront of financial services decision-making and planning. Yet, to-date, research connecting economic policy uncertainty to banking sector risks and performance metrics is lacking. This paper examines the relationship between the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index on the non-performing loans across 19 Eurozone member states, using panel data for 194 banks during the 2001–2021 period. As the crises covered were endogenous to the banking sector regulatory and operational environments, we introduce a novel control for the interaction between crises severity and duration, and banking sector strategic and operating environment. This control is proxied by public debt changes which reflect fiscal measures deployed to ameliorate effects of the crises. We find that rising EPU during the crises is associated with higher NPLs and government debt. We also document how this relationship is changing over time and across different crises.

Oil, gold and international stock markets: Extreme spillovers, connectedness and its determinants

This study examines the lower and upper return spillovers and connectedness between important commodity (crude oil and gold) and main international stock markets using the quantile connectedness approach by Ando et al. (2018). The results show stronger return spillovers during bearish and bullish market conditions. Crude oil and gold are net receivers of return spillovers irrespective of quantiles. Furthermore, an intense spillover is observed during high stress periods including COVID-19 in March 2020, and global economic slowdown and the Brexit referendum of 2016, oil price crash in 2014–2016, Tapering Tantrum in 2013, and the subprime crisis of 2008. Moreover, the spillovers in lower quantiles are stronger than in upper quantiles. The volatility uncertainty index (VIX) has a negative impact on the connectedness index at low and median quantiles. Gold and economic policy uncertainty indexes have a positive impact on lower quantile spillovers. In contrast, oil uncertainty index has a negative impact on quantile spillovers. COVID-19 crisis has a positive impact on lower, medium, and upper spillovers.

How does world economic policy uncertainty influence the carbon dioxide emission reporting and performance? Study of Fortune Global 500 firms.

This study contributes significantly to the field by utilising the World Economic Policy Uncertainty (WEPU) Index, as devised by (Ahir in Nat Bureau Econ Res2022), to scrutinise its impact on carbon dioxide emission reporting and performance. Employing the generalised method of moments (GMM) on a substantial dataset of 604 Fortune Global 500 firms spanning from 2005 to 2020, our analysis reveals crucial insights. The research elucidates the dual influence of WEPU Index: a positive correlation with carbon dioxide emission reporting and a negative correlation aimed at mitigating adverse effects and promoting sustainable practices, thereby enhancing firm trust. Moreover, the findings shed light on how companies in emission-intensive industries tend to ramp up carbon dioxide emission reporting, potentially to bolster investor confidence, particularly during high WEPU Index periods. Furthermore, this study uncovers a compelling association between high emitters and lowered carbon dioxide emission performance, stemming from political and social pressures to integrate environmental considerations. Notably, this pressure intensifies during periods of increased WEPU Index. The empirical results presented in this study carry immediate practical implications. Specifically, they offer valuable insights for regulatory bodies and industry associations, guiding the development of enhanced environmental and social reporting regulations and guidelines, particularly concerning carbon emission reporting and performance.

The impact of economic policy uncertainty on the profitability of textile industry: evidence from BRIC countries

ABSTRACT There has recently been a growing interest in the impact of economic policy uncertainty at the micro- and macro-level in developing and emerging market economies. This study aims to analyse the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the profitability of more than 500 publicly listed textile companies in BRIC countries for the period 2012–2021. By employing the panel data methodology, we find that the economic policy uncertainty has a significantly negative contemporaneous and lagged effect on financial performance. Our findings are robust to both alternative profitability metrics and dynamic model specifications. We also identify that economic policy uncertainty exerts an adverse impact on profitability through the capital structure channel at the micro-level and institutional quality channel at the macro-level. While equity capital can emerge as a powerful weapon against the consequences of heightened uncertainty at the firm level, any improvement in the institutional framework at the national level can also help firms to mitigate the losses from unanticipated policy changes. However, there are certain limitations to which good institutions absorb uncertainty shocks when they are permanently at a high plateau.