Economic Model Of Fertility Research Articles

Is there any substance to the “Roe effect”?

S ince abortion was legalized in the early 1970s, roughly I to 1.5 million abortions are performed each year. Recently, some have conjectured that the magnitude of these numbers may be altering political outcomes. If those pregnancies that were aborted were more likely to have been democratic voters, the reasoning goes, then there are far fewer democratic voters now than there would have been had the Supreme Court ruled differently in Roe v. Wade. This effect has been labeled the "Roe Effect." To date, the Roe Effect remains pure conjecture. Yet over the past decade or so, a considerable amount of academic research has been conducted, and continues to be conducted, on the impact of abortion policy on a range of social outcomes. The knowledge gained from this research can be brought to bear on the merits of the argument. What was the impact of abortion legalization on fertility? Did the reduction in fertility represent a permanent one, or just a shift in the timing of childbearing? Did abortion legalization alter the attributes of those children who were born? All of these issues speak directly to the feasibility of the Roe Effect. Although it is impossible to determine credibly the validity of the hypothesis without a counterfactual, it is possible to address whether the argument is at all consistent with what we know about the effect of abortion legalization. That is the goal of this essay. The first point that should be made is that the Roe Effect is based upon a faulty premise. James Taranto, who first proposed the Roe Effect, states "it is a statemerit of fact, not a moral judgment, to observe that every pregnancy aborted today results in one fewer eligible voter 18 years from now." He then points out that 40 million abortions have been performed since 1973, when the Roe decision was handed down. Larry Eastland similarly expresses that "there were 12,274,368 in the Voting Age Population of 205,815,000 missing from the 2000 Presidential election, because of abortions from 1973-1982." These statements are simply incorrect. They are based upon a common, but faulty, assumption that women have no control over their likelihood of becoming pregnant. If people engage in sexual activity (or not), or choose to use birth control (or not), independent of outside influences, then their statistical statements would be valid, In other words, if pregnancies were independent of outside influences, then every additional abortion would reflect an additional birth (well, almost we still would need to ignore the fact that some of the aborted pregnancies would have resulted in miscarriage, and women who abort can get pregnant again sooner). One could plausibly argue the contrary. Couples make decisions about their sexual activity and/or contraceptive use, taking into consideration relevant factors in their environment. This is the fundamental premise of an economic model of fertility. In such a model, women/ couples make decisions regarding pregnancy and childbirth by weighing the relevant benefits and costs, monetary or otherwise, The legal status of abortion is clearly an important component of the cost of a pregnancy. Even if childbirth is not the goal, women would be more reluctant to get pregnant if they knew that ending that pregnancy would be very expensive, as it would be if that resolution was an illegal abortion. Therefore, there is no obvious relationship between the number of abortions performed and the number of children who would have been born in the absence of those abortions, An additional abortion may represent a child who would have been born otherwise, or a pregnancy that would not have occurred otherwise. Yet the credibility of the Roe Effect has little to do with the rhetorical nature of the claimed magnitude of missing democratic voters, All that is required is that abortion [egatization needs to have reduced the number of children born. In fact, the impact on the number of children born does not have to be large at all for the effect to work. Although it sounds good to claim that 12 million additional voters could have swayed the 2000 election, it turns out that only a few hundred would have done ~he 'Lrick. This leads us to the first question thai can be addressed by academic research: By how much did abor-

The Effect of Child Benefit Policies on Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation in Canada

This paper presents an analysis of the effects of Canadian child benefit policies on fertility and female labor supply. Canada has adopted a variety of child benefit policies since 1918 that are incorporated into an economic model of fertility. This model is estimated and tested with time series data on fertility, female labor force participation, female wages, male incomes, female education, and child benefits. Cointegration methods are employed to accommodate problems of nonstationarity and endogeneity that characterize time series models of fertility and female labor supply. Two cointegrating relations are found, and these are identified as a fertility relation and a female labor supply function. All economic variables, including child benefits, have statistically significant and appropriately signed coefficients. The estimates are used to evaluate the effects of policy and other economic changes on fertility.

A Cointegration Model of Age‐Specific Fertility and Female Labor Supply in the United States

Cointegration methods suitable for estimation and testing with nonstationary data are applied to U.S. time‐series data on age‐specific fertility rates, female labor force participation rates, women's wages, unemployment rates and educational attainment, and male relative incomes. Likelihood ratio tests indicate the existence of two cointegrating relations that are identified as a fertility equation and a labor supply equation, respectively. Estimated long‐run relations are consistent with economic models of fertility and female labor market behavior, and these results are robust across both age‐groups and several alternative model specifications.

A Cointegration Model of Age-Specific Fertility and Female Labor Supply in the United States

1. IntroductionModels of fertility based on economic theories of behavior have been subjected to rigorous conceptual and empirical scrutiny (for surveys, see Olsen 1994 and Macunovich 1996a; for critical reviews, see Murphy 1992 and Smith 1981). However, much empirical analysis of aggregate fertility patterns in the United States has relied on traditional regression methods, with little influence from recent developments in multiple time-series methods appropriate for nonstationary variables.Although important theoretical propositions are testable with individual data, understanding of trends and patterns in fertility behavior at the societal level requires aggregate analysis (Ryder 1980). The aggregation of individual effects to make statements about total fertility is problematic, as the composition of the population changes over time. Some effects that are measured at the individual level may reflect changes in individuals' positions within a society, and these effects will not be present at the societal level. Alternatively, social interaction may induce behavioral changes across a population that are not reflected in individual responses. As described by Kohler (2001), changes in societal norms and institutions can create feedback loops between aggregate variables and individual incentives toward childbearing, so that effects between aggregates may exceed substantially the responses measured at the level of the household.1Analysis of aggregate time-series data has its own considerable challenges. Fertility and its determinants are most likely nonstationary time series that trend or drift persistently away from their initial values. Such nonstationarity may undermine classical estimation and inference with traditional regression procedures, leading to spurious inferences about relations among variables. Furthermore, the principal determinants of fertility, for example, women's wages and education levels, female labor force participation, unemployment rates, and husband's incomes, are quite possibly endogenously determined in conjunction with fertility decisions. This problem of endogenous regressons can undermine the identifiability of the fertility model, rendering the relations unestimable. Even if the relations are identified, the problem of endogenous regressors leads to inconsistent least squares estimators of model parameters.The objective of this paper is to revisit a simple economic model of fertility, employing the cointegration model of Johansen (1995) that is appropriate for analyzing relations between nonstationary time series. Johansen's procedure allows the empirical determination of the number of stationary relations and produces maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of these relations that are consistent and normally distributed, even in the presence of endogenous explanatory variables. Furthermore, to capture information on both the level and the timing of fertility, the analysis is applied to two age-specific fertility rates covering the prime childbearing years of U.S. women.2. Empirical Studies of Fertility with Aggregate DataEconomic models of fertility are grounded in either Easterlin's (1980a) relative income hypothesis or the New Home Economics (NHE) of Willis (1973) and Becker (1981). The former theory emphasizes the role of male incomes, relative to economic aspirations, as the driving force behind fertility and female labor force participation. Economic aspirations of young adults are determined by material conditions prevailing in their parental homes during their teenage years, when their parents would be close to their prime in earnings capacity. An increase in relative income shifts preferences in favor of childbearing and away from labor force activity by young adult women.In the full Easterlin model, relative income is determined by the size of the young adult cohort relative to that of prime aged adults, both measured contemporaneously (Easterlin 1980b). …

Cointegration modeling of fertility in the United States

This paper presents estimates of a multiple time series model of fertility, female labor force participation, women's wages, and the relative cohort size of younger to older adult males. Cointegration methods permit modeling of these nonstationary variables, yielding estimates of the long-run relation among the variables, and the dynamic response of each variable to displacements from the steady state. The estimated steady state relation between fertility and the other variables is consistent with economic models of fertility, with fertility negatively related to female wages and male relative cohort size. Fertility responds to cohort size in a manner that is consistent with Easterlin's relative income model of household behavior. Finally, both female labor market variables adjust significantly to departures from the steady state relation, implying that they cannot be treated as exogenous in time series models of fertility.

Estimating the factors determining the demand for induced abortions among married women in Taiwan

This paper purports to estimate the characteristics of women who had experiences of abortion in 1991 based on an economic model of fertility. The study makes use of a national survey on the knowledge of, attitude towards, and practice of family planning and reproductive health among married women in Taiwan. The results show that older women with higher family income and who live in urban areas were more likely to have the pregnancy terminated. In addition, the decision to have an abortion was negatively correlated with prior pregnancy loss, but positively associated with the number of previous live births. On the other hand, the availability of abortion services as measured by the number of legal abortion providers at city and county levels had a negative effect on the demand for abortions. The local female unemployment rate was found to be positively correlated with the woman's decision to have an abortion.

Economic models of fertility in post-war Britain--a conceptual and statistical re-interpretation.

The ‘New Home Economics’ theory is described briefly, and Leibenstein's conclusion in 1974 that empirical tests of the model have been unsuccessful is re-assessed and found to be confirmed for the case of some widely cited econometric studies in which macro-level time-series data are used. The pitfalls in formulating, fitting and interpreting such models are examined, and it is argued that the sorts of explanations which have been used to dismiss alternative explanations of post-war fertility trends are simplistic and invalid. Although the theory provides substantial insights, attempts which have been made to validate it have failed because many of the model's requirements have been ignored and, indeed, it is questioned whether the model is capable of empirical confirmation. It is concluded that progress will only be made by a fruitful dialogue between various social science disciplines, together with improved data sources and careful empirical studies.

Is Child Schooling A Poor Proxy for Child Quality?

Child quality plays a critical role in economic models of fertility and child investment. But child quality is difficult to observe empirically. Therefore in empirical studies child quality is frequently represented by child schooling. However economic models of household investment in children suggest that child schooling may be a very poor or even inverse proxy for child quality. (EXCERPT)

An Economic Model of Fertility, Sex and Contraception.

An Economic Model of Fertility, Sex and Contraception.

A Nonutilitarian Economic Model of Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation

This paper demonstrates the utility of Willis approach to the problem of fertility behavior and shows that the nonutilitarian approach to economic behavior in Sandersons work can also be applied to the study of time allocation and fertility behavior. 6 reasons are given for creating the nonutilitarian model of fertility and labor force behavior: 1) most of the empirical questions in which economists are interested pertain to groups of couples not particular couples 2) the utilitarian basis of economic models is questionable 3) there is a concern over falsifiability in other models 4) the new model responds to the criticisms of the Willis model 5) the new model produces some implications which are difficult or impossible to produce using the utilitarian approach and 6) there is a need to communicate with other colleagues. Differences between the Willis model and the new model are: 1) Willis focuses upon the manner in which the behavior of a given couple changes when economic conditions change whereas the new model focuses upon the differences in the distribution of behavior observed in 2 groups of couples who experinece different economic conditions; and 2) the specification of the household production structure differs. The stochastic dominance rule is introduced as a central one to the model of fertility and labor force behavior based on distribution of behavior. This rule refers to a set of ordinal relationships between distribution of a given variable. Implications of the nonutilitarian model involve: 1) relation between the amount of time the female spends in all activities except work in the labor market the amount of time the male spends on all activities except work in the labor market the quantity of market-purchased goods and services consumed by the family and the number of children in the family along a continuum of output which is unrelated to children to that which is related to children in the family: 2) implications where the level of the females wage-experience profile is higher in one situation than in another; and 3) implications of the case where the husbands wage is higher in one sutuation than in another. 7 implications of this model are discussed. In conclusion the model is relavent for economists in general economic demographers and other social scientists.

A nonutilitarian Economic Model of Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation

A nonutilitarian Economic Model of Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation

Socio-Cultural Variations in the Applicability of the Economic Model of Fertility

Socio-Cultural Variations in the Applicability of the Economic Model of Fertility

FREEDOM, ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY, AND FERTILITY: BLACK AMERICANS, 1860-1910

Black fertility declined sharply following Reconstruction. Demographers argue that explanations of post-bellum white fertility behavior are inapplicable to blacks. This paper hypothesizes that the reduced fertility was due to economic factors. An economic model of fertility is developed and estimated econometrically; it is consistent with the fertility experience of both races. It is concluded that several products of emancipation, including urbanization, increased literacy levels, and a shift in the economic burden of child maintenance from the slave owner to the family, were instrumental in increasing the opportunity cost of black children to their parents.

Husband-Wife Differences in the Demand for Children

The presence or absence of differences between husbands and wives in patterns of relationship between certain economic variables and desired family size may indicate: a) whether or not conjugal roles condition the effects of economic factors on the demand for children; and b) the extent to which assumptions in economic models of fertility about the nature and existence of common family utility functions are empirically supported. In order to test for such differences equations regressing husbands and wifes desired family size separately on selected economic social and background variables are estimated using data from a survey of Mexican-American couples. The results reveal considerable husband-wife differences in patterns of relationship particularly in the cases of variables measuring wifes wage and labor force participation. Further analysis reveals that whether husbands desired family size is affected primarily by the wifes potential wage or by her current labor force participation depends on the degree to which the wife has mutually acknowledged influence on family decisions concerning the number of children to have. (authors)