Economic Growth In Sudan Research Articles

Globalization and financial development contributions toward economic growth in Sudan

The main objective of this study is to evaluate how globalization and financial development contributed to Sudan’s economic growth using data from 1978 to 2021 by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Furthermore, a model to calculate total factor productivity and the contributions of the underlying variables is being developed. The findings from ARDL indicate that globalization and capital display positive and beneficial impacts on Sudan’s economic growth in the long run, implying that an increase of one percentage point in Sudan’s globalization index will, over time, boost economic growth by 1.50408 % and 0.156301 %. Government spending as a control variable was found to influence economic growth positively. Financial development shows a detrimental effect on growth in Sudan. The average productivity growth rate is negative, regardless of the positive contributions of globalization and financial development. This outcome suggests that globalization and capital have been gainful to Sudan’s economy. Therefore, this study advocates that capital accumulation triggers investment, encouraging more global market openness making it easier to access international markets, setting up a strong and sophisticated financial system to assist Sudan’s economic development, and enhancing Sudan’s spending policy to support the productive sectors and encourage domestic production will significantly stimulate economic growth post-war, taking into account additional measures, such as regulations, investment laws, institutional quality, the integration of the banking system, and identifying expenditure prioritizations.

قياس أثر الادخار على النمو الاقتصادي في السودان 1990م- 2013م

The study examines to measurement impact of savings in economic growth in Sudan during the period from 1990-2013. This study aimed to know the Real factors that affect economic growth. The study follows the descriptive statistical and analytical add econometrics analysis formulation, descriptive, estimate and forecasting the econometrics model. The study reached a number of the most important results: there was an inverse relationship between consumption and economic growth in Sudan. The study recommends the development and support of the private sector and increases production and productivity, increasing the endogenous capacity of the Sudanese economy to finance domestic savings and ignoring the grants and foreign loans to finance development.

Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Models to Investigate the Impact of Foreign Trade on Economic Growth in Sudan

Foreign commerce is the term for the exchange of goods and services between nations, and it is subject to a wide range of laws, rules, and agreements. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the link between Sudan's economic growth, imports, and exports from 2005 to 2022. Based on a descriptive, analytical, and econometrics methodology, the study estimated the relationship between the study variables using a nonlinear autoregressive model (NARDL). The study's conclusions indicate that, during the study period, exports had a short-term negative influence on the rate of growth in the economy but a positive long-term impact. Additionally, imports have a short-term favorable effect on economic growth rates but a long-term negative one.

The Impact of Tax Reform on Economic Growth in Sudan

Tax reform is an important policy tool for governments to promote economic growth. It is an important aspect of economic policy as it can have a significant impact on the overall health of the economy. Furthermore, tax reform, foreign direct investment, population growth, and economic activity are all closely related. This study aims to examine the impact of tax reform on economic growth in Sudan from 1961 to 2021. For this purpose, the study used the gross domestic product as the dependent variable representing economic growth (Y), while the explanatory variables represented tax reform (X1), population growth (X2), and foreign direct investment (X3). The data were collected from the World Bank database. The study applied the ordinary least squares technique, and the obtained results showed that while population growth and foreign direct investment play a significant role in economic growth, tax reform has a little bite impact on Sudan's economic growth during the period under study. So that by reforming the tax system, governments can create a more efficient and fair system that encourages economic growth and investment.

Foreign Trade, Employment and Economic Growth in Sudan: Econometric Analysis

This study investigates the relationships between foreign trade, employment and economic growth in Sudan over the period 1970-2017, with inflation and budget deficit as policy variables. Two autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) models were estimated with trade and economic growth as determinants of youth employment and total employment. Two other models were estimated to investigate how trade and each type of employment affect economic growth separately. The empirical results from the four models revealed existence of long run relationships between foreign trade, employment and economic growth. In the short run, trade, economic and population growth rates have stronger effects on youth employment than on total employment. In the long run, youth employment is found to be positively affected by economic growth and investment but negatively affected by population growth and the budget deficit, while total employment is only affected by population growth rate. Economic growth is found to be much explained by youth employment than by total employment and foreign trade. The study concludes that the internal factors in terms of inflation, budget deficit, investment and salaried workers are more important to employment and economic growth than the performance of foreign trade sector of Sudan. The policy implication is that youth employment should be given priority in labor and trade openness policy than targeting employment as a whole. For trade openness to play positive roles on employment and economic growth in Sudan, corrective policies for volumes and types of exports and imports are urgently needed.

The nexus between electricity consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, and economic growth in Sudan (1971–2019)

Electricity access for economic development is a major challenge in Sudan amidst rapid population growth and climate variabilities. This study investigates the nexus between electricity consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, total population, and economic growth from 1971 to 2019. This study incorporates Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach with various econometric techniques to address methodological limitations in Sudan and introduces appealing methodological innovation to control the structural breaks in the dataset. The empirical findings demonstrate that, despite the high potential of energy resources, Sudan has failed to provide adequate electricity to promote economic development and meet population electricity demand. The ARDL results show strong associations between total population, environmental degradation and economic growth. The Granger causality results show evidence that the country's growing population improves economic growth, increases electricity demand, and damages the environment. Therefore, the government's greatest challenge is achieving economic growth while promoting environmental quality. The findings suggest that Sudan cannot take the energy conservation policy because it could delay the country's economic growth. However, various policy reforms are needed for affordable electricity access and environmentally-friendly development, like promoting renewable energy, diversifying of energy mix, and supporting high efficiency in consumption-based sectors.

The Relationship between Financial Inclusion and Sudanese Economic Growth 2006-2020

The paper shed light on the causal relationship between financial inclusion, and economic growth in Sudan from 2006 to 2020. The paper seeks to answer the following question: What is the impact of financial inclusion indicators on economic growth in Sudan? Therefore, In order to answer this question, the paper aimed to find out the causal relationship between some indicators of financial inclusion including (the number of ATMs, the number of Sudanese bank branches and the ease of doing business index) in addition to the growth of the Sudanese economy proxies by RGDP to test the causal relationship between the variables of the study, the paper employed the Vector Auto regression Model (VAR) methodology and also adopted the Angel Granger Causality Test through which the outputs of the Eviews10 showed that the number of bank branches and the ease of doing business index affect the growth of the Sudanese economy, and also showed that there is a relationship between the number of ATMs and economic growth, and accordingly the paper recommended the provision of banking services represented in facilitating the requirements for opening bank accounts as well as facilitating services for obtaining business licenses, in addition to the delivery of banking services to all regions of Sudan. Keywords: Financial Inclusion, VAR Model, Economic Growth

Female Human Capital and Economic Growth in Sudan: Empirical Evidence for Women’s Empowerment

Human capital in general spurs economic growth. Female human capital in terms of education and health in particular is important for economic growth in countries where poverty and gender inequalities are pervasive, such as Sudan. This study aimed to investigate the role of female human capital in economic growth in Sudan, together with female labor force participation and women’s participation in the national parliament. The study applied a basic autoregressive distributed lag model ARDL and a nonlinear (NARDL) accounting for structural breaks to time-series data over the period 1975–2021. The bounds tests revealed that female human capital variables and economic growth have a long-run equilibrium relationship. The empirical results revealed that female human capital has a negative effect on gross national income per capita (GNIP). However, female labor participation was found to have a significant positive effect on economic growth in both models. Prevalence of HIV/AIDS among women of age 14–25 has a significant negative effect on economic growth, which is likely also reflecting the negative effect of female human capital. Results also showed that women’s participation in the parliament has positive and significant effect on economic growth in the short run only. The study argues for enhancing female human capital via female enrollment in education and through the promotion of women’s health, including combatting HIV/AIDS. Effective female labor participation can be enhanced through reductions in women’s vulnerability in employment and increasing their work in waged formal sectors. Women’s political empowerment could foster long-term growth, but its quality aspects must be ascertained.

Oil, export diversification and economic growth in Sudan: evidence from a VAR model

There is an extensive literature demonstrating a positive link between export diversification and economic growth. In parallel, the resource curse thesis posits export concentration as an important mechanism curtailing growth in mineral-rich countries. Our analysis contributes to this literature by empirically investigating the interaction between oil dependence captured by the share of oil rents in GDP and export diversification and economic growth for Sudan. We do this with the help of a VAR model using annual data between 1960 and 2018. In comparison to earlier studies, our dataset covers also Sudan’s post-oil boom period, which coincided with a substantial drop in oil dependence after the 2011 secession of South Sudan. We find that oil rents appear to have a statistically significant and negative effect on export diversification, although contemporaneously rather than in the long-term. However, we find no evidence of a statistically significant impact of either oil dependence or export diversification on economic growth, as suggested by the resource curse hypothesis.

Optimum Government Size and Economic Growth in Sudan: Using ARDL approach

Optimum Government Size and Economic Growth in Sudan: Using ARDL approach

Nexus among foreign direct investment, financial development, and sustainable economic growth: Empirical aspects from Sudan

<abstract> <p>This study examined the nexus between foreign direct investment (FDI), financial development, and sustainable economic growth in Sudan during the period of the structural adjustment program and the full Islamization of the banking and financial system that took place in the 1980s. The research provides a comprehensive analysis using the most recent time series secondary data from 1990 to 2020 and the study employed co-integration, Granger causality, and VAR error correction technique to estimate the models, to clarify the claimed relationship between FDI and its effect on the financial sector and subsequently attending a sustainable economic development in Sudan. In this research, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root tests are applied to test the stationarity of data and the data was found stationary at first difference. The results of the ARDL bounds showed the existence of a long-term relationship between the FDI and other independent variables but the short-term showed otherwise. The Granger causality test implies that the past values of FDI don't significantly contribute to the prediction of sustainable economic growth. Also, results show that there's evidence of observed causality running from the country's trade openness and the financial sector's development. The implication of these results shows there is a complementary relationship between sustainable economic growth and both financial development and trade openness in the short run. Interestingly, the findings of the study show that the effect of financial development on economic growth is further enhanced by the inflows of FDI.</p> </abstract>

DOES TRADE OPENNESS PROMOTE ECONOMIC GROWTH? THE CASE OF SUDAN

This study investigates the impact of trade openness on economic growth in Sudan. The study utilizes annual time series data from 1972 to 2019. The study adopts the unit root test. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag model has been used as an estimation technique. The results indicate that trade openness has a positive significant impact on the economic growth in short run. However, the impact is negative in the long run. When the long-run and short-run elasticity were compared the trade-led growth hypothesis was not found. It can be argued that the country is specialized in production of low-quality products and exporting primary products therefore the economic growth is negatively affected by trade openness. Moreover, the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis results provide evidence against the existence of the hypothesis indicating that the country is still below the desired level of income. The study suggests that a country should promote the industrial sector which will help to export manufactured products and therefore will increase the productivity.

Resource Rents, Human Development and Economic Growth in Sudan

This study investigates the relationship between natural resource rents, human development and economic growth in Sudan using co-integration and vector error correction modelling (VECM) over the period 1970–2015. Institutions proved to play a role in determining a difference in whether a country is cured or blessed by resource abundance. In the case of Sudan, no time series data is available on institutional quality and is therefore excluded from the analysis. The role of institutions and macroeconomic policies is captured by other variables included in the empirical model. Co-integration tests confirm the existence of a long run equilibrium relationship between resource rents, human development and economic growth in Sudan. Empirical evidence from the estimated VECM shows that economic growth is positively affected by resource rents and development expenditure but surprisingly negatively affected by life expectancy at birth in the short run. In the long run, resource rents, school enrolment, life expectancy and financial development have negative significant effects on economic growth. Only development expenditure is found to affect economic growth positively. Resource rents are found to weaken education and health levels and this is indirectly channeled into negative effects of resource rents on economic growth. These results suggest that the government has been neglecting investments to build up human capital necessary for inclusive growth. Long run Granger causality tests show a unidirectional causal relationship running from resource rents to GDP growth as well as from development expenditure to GDP growth. School enrollment, life expectancy and financial development are found to be negatively Granger causing GDP growth. Long run causal relationships reconfirm that a resource curse exists indirectly mediated by weak human capital. The study recommends that the government should manage natural resource rents with a policy framework supporting creation of a virtuous economic circle between human development and economic growth. If pursued, this would promote sustained, inclusive and equitable growth in Sudan.

Impact of Khartoum Stock Exchange Market Performance on Economic Growth: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag ARDL Bounds Testing Model

This study examines the impact of the Khartoum Stock Exchange market performance on economic growth in Sudan from Q1 1995 to Q4 2018. The data were collected from the Central Bank of Sudan (CBS) and Khartoum Stock Exchange (KSE). The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test was applied to estimate the impact of the Khartoum Stock Exchange market performance on economic growth. The results show that the Khartoum Stock Exchange market performance has a limited impact on economic growth. The results of the ARDL test reveal that the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium after a short-term shock, which confirms the stability of Sudanese economic system through stock market performance, equals 24% only. Although market capitalization has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in the long term, the turnover ratio and stocks traded value showed insignificant negative impacts on economic growth. We recommend that suitable investment policies should be developed by policy makers for the Sudanese economy to allow the Khartoum securities market to attract foreign investors and encourage local investors in order to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the stock market, thus, leading to a boost in securities exchanges as well as economic growth.

The Relationship Between Human Capital and the Economic Growth in Sudan: علاقة الاستثمار في رأس المال البشري بالنمو الاقتصادي في السودان

The study aims to test the relationship between investment in human capital and economic growth in Sudan. It assumed that the growth in both of enrolled in different levels of education and government expenditure on education will lead to increase the economic growth in Sudan. The variables were subjected to several econometrics tests, such as Augmented Dickey–Fuller test (ADF), Autoregressive Distributed- lagged Model (ARDL) and the Error Correction Model (ECM) to test the short- and long- term relationship between study variables. The results of long- run parameters of the (ARDL) model showed a positive correlation between real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate and the percentage of enrollment in universities from the total population. Also it showed a positive correlation between real GDP growth and education expenditure as a percentage of Gross National Income (GNI). While the estimated results of the bounds test for co- integration within the (ARDL) methodology results provided evidence of a long- run equilibrium relationship between the real GDP growth and the enrollment ratios of primary, secondary and university levels to the total population. Also provided evidence for a long- run equilibrium relationship between real GDP growth and the education expenditure as a share of GNI. Export of goods and services as a percentage of GDP and inflation rate. While the results of the estimated error correction model (ECM) confirmed that the real GDP growth is adjusted to its equilibrium value in each time period by 93% and 88%- for the two models respectively- of the remaining balance of the period with onetime lag. The study recommended the expansion of university education to raise the rate of economic growth through the development of policies to encourage investment in it, raise the quality of university education and improve the outputs quality, enhance the curricula to keep pace with the modern technology progress, linking education outputs with the needs of the labor market requirements and raising the percentage of education expenditure from GDP, as well as to encourage the governmental educational institutions to develop and diversify their self- financing resources.

VELOCITY OF MONEY INCOME AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SUDAN: COINTEGRATION AND ERROR CORRECTION ANALYSIS

This study explores the linkages between velocity of money and economic growth in Sudan using conitegration and error correction methods in the context of the quantity theory of money QTM without inclusion of institutional factors. Cointegration analysis confirms existence of a long run equilibrium relationship between velocity of money and economic growth. The empirical analysis shows that velocity of money is significantly and positively affected by GDP and broad money, validating the QTM. Velocity of money is also found to be positively affected by trade openness, government deficit but negatively affected by inflation and investment. Granger causality test shows unidirectional relationships running from GDP, inflation and financial development to velocity of money. A bidirectional causality between velocity and trade openness is detected. These findings suggest that velocity of money is driven mostly by expansionary monetary policy and monetization of government deficit, which should be controlled.

MEASURE THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SUDAN FOR PERIOD 1970-2018

The objective of this study was to measure the impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Sudan. It based on the following hypotheses: The most critical factors impacting Economic Growth(GDP) in the long- and short-run: exchange rate, inflation, Money supply, and Lending cost . There was a statistically significant relationship between Economic Growth and: exchange rate, inflation, Money supply, and Lending cost . The study used a descriptive approach and the analytical statistical method to construct the model and Eviews8 Program for data analysis. The Data were collected from the Bank of Sudan for period 1990-2018. Using An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach was to estimate the model in the short and long run. Findings were as follows that there was a statistically significant relationship between the Economic Growth (GDP) and its factors in the long- and short-run. The money supply had a positive and statistically significance impact on the GDP growth. The exchange rate had a positive e and statistically significance impact on GDP growth. The inflation rate coefficient is negative, and statistically significance impact on GDP growth and Lending cost coefficient was a negative and statistically insignificant impact on GDP growth. Finally, correction coefficient values had high speed in overtaking shocks. The study recommended reducing inflation rate through appropriate economic policies in order to activate the effect of Total Investment Lending cost rate index. KEYWORDS: Inflation, Exchange Rate, ARDL, Growth, Co-integration.

The Impact of Domestic and Direct Foreign Investment on the Economic Growth in Sudan: Evidence from Granger Causality and VAR Framework

The Impact of Domestic and Direct Foreign Investment on the Economic Growth in Sudan: Evidence from Granger Causality and VAR Framework Dr. Musa Albur Abstract Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Investment provide a crucial basis for economic development of any country. This study examines the causes and impacts of Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), Real Domestic Investment (DI) and Real Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Sudan for the period from 1990 to 2011.The importance of this study stems from the vital role of investment (domestic and foreign) in the development process through enhancing economic growth, improving infrastructure and achieving welfare. This study adopted Vector Autoregressive Model and Granger Causality Test (1969). The study depended on secondary data collected from Central Bank of Sudan and Central Bureau of Statistics. Our empirical evidence suggests that the causality directions running positively in the period (1990-2011). There is unidirectional causality of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), from Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), from Domestic Investment (DI) to Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), from real gross domestic product (RGDP) to domestic investment (DI), from foreign direct investment (FDI) to domestic investment (DI), and from domestic investment (DI) to foreign direct investment (FDI). Granger causality results show that there are no statistically significant implications of the independence causality relationship between Domestic Investment( DI) and Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), Real Gross Domestic Product(RGDP) to Domestic Investment( DI), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) ) to Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) ) to Domestic Investment(DI), and Domestic Investment ( DI) to Foreign Direct Investment(FDI). The VAR estimation shows that the coefficients of lagged RGDP significant in the regression of the RGDP, the coefficients of lagged DI significant in the regression of the DI and FDI, the coefficients of lagged DI insignificant in the regression of the RGDP, and the coefficients of lagged FDI insignificant in the regression of the RGDP.The study recommends raising more real financial resources for the purpose of investing in economic and social infrastructure as well as in oil exploration. Industrialization is highly recommended for import substitution purpose and for increasing the value added for Sudan's exports to benefit more from international trade. These require encouraging domestic saving, attraction of foreign funds to supplement the domestic component, strengthening foreign relations, and facilitating the investment procedures and thus achieving economic growth in the country. Full Text: PDF DOI: 10.15640/jeds.v7n4a9

Health Services Economy and its Impact on Economic Growth in Sudan: اقتصاديات الخدمات الصحية وأثرها على النمو الاقتصادي في السودان

This study examines the impact of health service economics in relation to economic growth in Sudan. It explains the concept of health service economics, and the demand for the good performance of health services, as a factor effecting economic growth rates. The study also details the development of the health sector in Sudan, focusing on the role of medical staff working in the health field. The study also discusses health facilities in Sudan, describing how their development aligns with population growth, improved GDP, and the overall growth rate of the economy, in addition to per capita GDP. The study identifies a shortfall in the provision of health services in Sudan, due to the migration of medical personnel, as well as inadequacies in terms of the number of health facilities available. It notes that these insufficiencies influence the delivery of health care services to the population, leading to low economic growth rates resulting from restricted productivity. In conclusion, the study recommends the allocation of higher budgets to the health sector to improve health facilities and boost medical staff numbers, on the premise that the development of the health sector will support economic development overall.

(The Impact of Human Capital on Economic Growth of Sudan during the period (1999- 2017: أثر رأس المال البشري على النمو الاقتصادي في السودان: خلال الفترة من 1990- 2017م

The study titled as the impact of human capital on economic growth in Sudan during the period 1990- 2017 in order to analyze the relationship between human development and economic growth, the study employed descriptive and analytical method which based on time series data during the period of the study, also it employed Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique to estimate the econometric model which depends on Endogenous Growth Model, the model was corrected from various statistical and econometrics problems. The results shows that, there is positive impact of employing modern technology on real production to enhance economic growth , human capital taken as total expenditure on education has positive impact on economic growth, while results shows an inverse impact of economic openness variable on economic growth as indicator for external factors, the study recommend the important of increases of government expenditure on education, encouragement of modern technology and apply more effective fiscal and monetary policy.