Recession Research Articles

Coronavirus disease and assisted reproduction in South Africa: a qualitative study

Objective: Little has been written about the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on assisted reproduction services in low and middle-income countries. The purpose of this study was to investigate the immediate and long-term effects of assisted reproductive technology services in South Africa after 27 months of various lockdowns and restrictions associated with the pandemic. Methods: This article draws on data collected in 2020–2023 as part of a qualitative study of assisted reproduction within sub-Saharan Africa. Twenty-nine infertility specialists and other clinical staff including embryologists, clinic coordinators, ova donor coordinators, and nurses were interviewed and asked about the effects of the pandemic on their clinics and patients. A semistructured in-depth interview technique was used to collect the data. The analysis was conducted using the thematic analysis method. Result: Findings revealed that the immediate effects of the pandemic included the cancellations and deferral of assisted reproductive technology cycles and decreased numbers of cross-border patients. Challenges experienced by clinics in making decisions included whether to treat COVID-positive patients, increased costs of testing, and economic losses. Longer-term effects included the reconsideration of life priorities by both specialists and patients, and improved remote consultations and networking opportunities facilitated by the widespread dissemination of online platforms. There was also increased acceptability of the shipping and use of frozen gametes, leading to a perceived growth of the South African frozen oocyte trade. There was also decreased demand for add-ons, associated with the economic downturn post-pandemic in the region. Conclusion: COVID-19 carried costs (cancellation of cycles, a decrease in international patients, decrease in some procedures with the post-COVID economic downturn) but also unanticipated benefits for the practices and provision of services within infertility clinics in South Africa (increased gamete and embryo shipping; virtual patient consultations; improved virtual networking; greater use of local in vitro fertilization services). Further comparisons postpandemic in other low and middle-income countries are needed to understand the long-term implications.

The Impact of Fintech Startups on Financial Institutions’ Performance and Default Risk

Introduction: It is highly important to understand the role of financial technology-based startups in the field of financial support. Thus, the study here aimed to investigate the job of fintech solutions or startups in the performance management of financial institutions and the process they use to mitigate risk in financial matters. Literature Review: The economic contraction was most likely the cause of the decline in the value of investments. Understanding the importance of operational efficiency, traditional financial institutions have embraced technology advancements to automate repetitive tasks, lower errors, and save costs. As a result, overall performance and cost-effectiveness have increased. Methodology: The method of data collection that has been selected to investigate the roles that fintech startups play in reducing financial risk is "primary quantitative." As a result, answers to a questionnaire consisting of 13 questions were gathered from 55 people. Findings and analysis: The statistical analysis revealed that the majority of responses were either in agreement or strongly in agreement. Given that the Pearson Correlation value is greater than 0.8, there is a strong correlation between each variable. Every hypothesis formulated during the initial stage of the study has been approved. Discussion: Fintech, which is a combination of finance and technology, uses cutting-edge methods and instruments to improve the overall effectiveness and resilience of risk management frameworks. However, fintech startups face a variety of obstacles along the way, but they are also presented with opportunities for innovation and growth on their optimization journey Conclusion: The adoption of fintech by financial institutions is expected to create a dynamic risk management landscape that can adjust to new opportunities and challenges in the constantly changing financial sector. The primary quantitative method was selected in order to collect the pertinent data for this investigation. Through statistical analysis, the gathering of quantitative data can assist in projecting real-time information.

Terrorism in Northern Nigeria and the Proliferation of Small and Light Weapons

The advent of technology has acted as a catalyst to the propensity and intensity of acts of terrorism across the globe owing to the production of Small and Light Weapons (SALW), which are easy to handle and deploy in conflict situations. This paper aims at examining the influence of the proliferation of SALW on terrorism in Northern Nigeria, which is largely perpetrated by the Boko Haram terrorist group and the Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP). The paper revealed that the proliferation of SALWs have significantly contributed to the recurrence and ferociousness of terrorism in Northern Nigeria. The paper also revealed that despite the copious legal framework regulating the use of arms and light weapons, arms have become a free-for-all particularly, in the hands of non-state actors in Nigeria. The resultant effects of this proliferation are loss of lives; wanton damage and destruction of properties and means of livelihood; displacements; economic downturn etc. The paper concludes that the ECOWAS Convention on Small Arms and Light Weapons (Convention) should be operational in Nigeria. However, reliance cannot be placed on legislation alone as a means of controlling the proliferation of arms but it is imperative for other measures to be in place such as an institutional framework involving the re-jig of the Nigerian security apparatus and community involvement in the control of SALW.

Tourism in pandemic: the role of digital travel vouchers in China

The COVID-19 pandemic has created significant challenges to the global economy, especially within the tourism industry. Economic downturns and psychological barriers make it even more challenging to attract tourists back. This paper explores the stimulating effect of digital travel vouchers on tourist mobility, as well as the heterogeneous effects of different vouchers modes. Using monthly data on tourist inflows in 306 cities from September 2020 to December 2021, collected by a web-crawling tool, and manually gathered information of digital travel vouchers issued during this period, our analyses show that digital travel vouchers can boost tourist inflows. Their effectiveness, however, depends on the method of issuance and the total number distributed. Furthermore, significant spillover effects among neighboring cities are found through a spatial econometric model.

Do responsible practices lead to higher firm productivity? Evidence from Europe

AbstractThis study examines the impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in its environmental, social and governance (ESG) dimensions on firm productivity. We analyze a data set comprising 448 non‐financial firms operating in 15 European countries during the period 2002–2018 and find compelling evidence indicating that both the overall ESG scores and their individual sub‐pillars, are positively associated with total factor productivity (TFP). To ensure the robustness of our findings, we employ multiple analytical approaches to address potential endogeneity and selection biases. Our evidence demonstrates that the link between ESG and TFP link becomes more pronounced during economic slowdowns, particularly in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Furthermore, our investigation reveals that firms' environmental performance plays a pivotal role in driving this relationship. To validate this outcome, we employ a quasi‐natural experiment, focused on the adoption of the international climate change treaty, the 2015 ‘Paris Agreement’. Overall, our results offer valuable insights for policymakers and regulators and confirm that involvement in sustainability practices within the non‐financial sector not only yields societal benefits but also bolsters firm‐level productivity.

Acceleration of diversification of foreign trade relations of Central-Eastern European countries in crisis periods and the role of Russia in this process

Aim. To show the acceleration of diversification of trade relations diversification of Central­Eastern European (CEE) countries in crisis periods (2009-2012, 2017-2023) and to determine the importance of Russia in this process.Objectives. To analyze the dynamics of the main indicators of trade of CEE countries with some regions of the world, including China and Russia.Methods. The authors applied such research methods as statistical analysis, generalization, description and graphical modeling.Results. The results of the analysis show that as the foreign trade potential of the European Union (EU) closed market is exhausted, CEE countries are forced to diversify their trade rela­tions, expanding them towards other regions of the world.Conclusions. The diversification process intensifies in times of crisis, when conditions for regular cooperation within the EU deteriorate due to the economic downturn. This can be traced back to the global financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009 and is happening now (2022-2024), in the context of geopolitical tensions. Along with the decreasing share of the EU in the CEE countries' trade turnover, their trade interaction with other regions, mainly with Asia, is ex­panding. Among the countries targeted by the CEE diversification vector, one can single out China with the largest volume of mutual trade and Russia, whose importance has sharply de­clined in recent years due to the harsh sanctions imposed against it.

Determining the effects of green space usage on health inequalities among residents of shrinking cities based on a social capital perspective

Long-term population loss and economic downturns have led to shrinking cities generally lacking social vitality and losing public spaces, such as green spaces. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of green spaces for the social capital and health of residents, but the impacts of green space usage on health inequalities in the context of urban shrinkage have not been fully explored. In addition, residents who live in shrinking cities in northeastern China are more likely to suffer health problems due to their location in a severely cold region. Therefore, we selected 17 urban green spaces in Hegang, a typical shrinking city, as the research objects. We collected a total of 544 valid questionnaires through random distribution. These data were used to evaluate four green space usage characteristics of residents comprising transportation costs, usage frequency, usage duration, and participation in activities, as well as two social capital dimensions that are directly related to health comprising social networks and reciprocity and trust. We conducted correlation analysis, multivariate analysis of variance, and analysis of covariance to explore the impacts of green space usage on two categories of social capital for residents with different attributes and the consequences of health inequalities. The results showed that: (1) women, middle-aged and elderly people, and the low- and middle-income classes were less able to access social capital through the usage of green spaces; (2) the frequency of green space usage and intensity of participation in social activities were key dimensions that affected inequality; and (3) the usage of green spaces reinforced inequalities in the level of reciprocity and trust among residents. Based on our findings, we recommend that local governments in shrinking cities pay more attention to green spaces and squares in inner city areas to improve the accessibility and usability of these open spaces. Governments should focus on regenerating green spaces located near older neighborhoods to increase opportunities for residents to make new social connections and reduce inequalities in public services and health, especially for improving the social well-being of older populations with a lower socioeconomic status.

Aggregate productivity, economic fluctuations, and export orientation: Evidence from India

Understanding the cyclicality in aggregate productivity helps answer whether the economy allocates resources efficiently or not. The paper analyses the sources of aggregate productivity growth, such as direct efficiency gain within-plants, allocative efficiency gain, and gains due to entry and exit during economic fluctuations. In particular, we exploit the economic shock of the Great Recession to analyse the validity of the 'Cleansing’ or ‘Scarring’ effect of recession and 'Schumpeterian Darwinian Selection' for Indian manufacturing. The rise and fall of within-plant and net-entry effects during the economic fluctuations explains the pro-cyclicality of productivity growth. Plants in export-oriented industries are crucial in explaining the pro-cyclicality. Negative external shock to exporting sectors during 2008–09 shifted resources from more productive to less productive plants. The relatively productive exporters exited the markets following the global crisis, scarring the economy. Nonetheless, the positive effect from the net-entry exit of plants during the economic downturn makes the 'Schumpeterian approach of Darwinian Selection' valid.

A Critical Examination and Scrutiny between Tata Steels and JSW Steels Limited in India

Abstract: Over the past few years, the Indian steel sector has advanced quickly thanks to solid foundations. The industry is receiving all of the necessary components needed for rapid expansion. The industry is receiving billions of dollars in investments from the private sector and advantageous industrial changes from the government. Due to the robust domestic demand from the building, automotive, and infrastructure sectors, the industry was able to maintain its positive growth momentum even during the difficult economic downturn. With a stellar history, the nation is now well-known in the global steel sector. The remarkable performance of the industry has attracted global steel companies from all over the world. For instance, India's production of crude steel reached 56.6 million metric tonnes in 2009, a modest year-over-year increase of 2.7%. Conversely, a number of Asian nations, including South Korea and Japan, experienced a sharp drop in their production levels. This further demonstrates the Indian steel industry's robustness and resilience against outside risk factors. The impact of the steel industry on two significant businesses, Tata Steels and JSW Steels, is discussed in this essay. Additionally, the author has attempted to use ratio analysis in the study to highlight Tata Steels' and JSW Steels' financial performance.

Mehmet Şevki (Yazman) as an Author of the Journal Kadro

After the National Struggle, Turkish National State was established under the leadership of Atatürk. After the form of goverment became a republic in 1923, the understanding of national will and national soverignty was adopted. The revolutions made one after the other were meant for the movements to protect and enable this new national state. After the World Economic Depression of 1929, the Republic of Turkey adopted the princeples of statism in 1932. It is possible to say that the Journal Kadro, which started its publication life in January of the same year and published 36 issues in 3 years, tried to produce a unique theory of the Turkish revolution. The articles in the journal were generally focused on culture, literature, domestic and foreign policy and the current political situation. But actually articles on economics and economy were focused. In this context, the authors of the Journal Kadro, who were motivated by Turkey’s need for economic development, published original ideas on industrialisation and technological progress. In this paper, the articles of M. Şevki (Yazman) Bey, one of the authors of the Journal Kadro were evaluated. It was tried to reveal that the ideas and thoughts put forward by Yazman contributed to the economic, technical and scientific development of Turkey.

Promoting Sustainable Development of Organizations: Performance Pressure, Workplace Fun, and Employee Ambidextrous Innovation

In the context of an economic downturn, organizations need to continuously improve their performance requirements for employees, and in the macro environment of intensified competition, organizations need to continuously motivate employees to innovate in order to seize development opportunities. Flexibly adjusting to the internal pressure of an organization while ensuring organizational vitality can promote employee adaptive growth and achieve sustainable development in the organization. However, the impact of performance pressure on employee ambidextrous innovation is currently unknown. Based on this, this article explores the positive effects of performance pressure in influencing employee ambidextrous innovation through job involvement from the perspective of Affective Events Theory and uses workplace fun as a moderating variable in order to analyze the internal logic of long-term motivation for employee ambidextrous innovation in organizations. This article conducted a survey and analysis of 362 in-service employees in enterprises and institutions and found the following: (1) performance pressure has a significant positive impact on employee ambidextrous innovation; (2) job involvement plays a partial mediating role between performance pressure and exploratory innovation; (3) workplace fun has a moderating effect on the relationship between job involvement and exploitative innovation, and the higher the level of workplace fun, the stronger the positive impact of job involvement on exploitative innovation.

Financial Development, Financial Openness, and Policy Effectiveness

This study explores how financial development and openness influence the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies. An analysis of data from about 100 countries between 1980 and 2018 reveals that both financial openness and development weaken the impact of monetary and fiscal policies. Our results further show that financial development in a country diminishes policy effectiveness depending on the country’s level of financial development; specifically, the more developed a country, the less effective the policies would be. Additionally, through a detailed examination employing a dynamic panel GMM approach, the study investigates the global repercussions of economic downturns in the US and how financial maturity shapes policy effectiveness during these times. We also discuss some policy implications that show that the positive impacts of monetary policy on output growth are lessened during crisis periods, and policymakers should act accordingly.

The resilient self-employability of women and senior people after sudden economic shocks

AbstractIn recent times, various crises have negatively affected the financial stability, job security, and health of countless individuals. According to research, different factors that operate at both the individual and contextual levels can play a prominent role in influencing people's self-employment during periods of economic downturn. This study investigates the changes in the likelihood of self-employment by gender and age across various contexts following sudden shocks. By analyzing the intersection of occupational choice and business cycle theories, this research offers insights into how crises affect people's ability to work for themselves. Using a sample of over 250,000 individuals from sixteen countries and applying a multilevel binary logistic regression analysis, the results confirm that women and older individuals are less inclined to be self-employed in general. However, unexpected economic recessions may lead to a slight increase in their likelihood of self-employment. Furthermore, when women and seniors live in a higher GDP per capita context, this context positively moderates the relationship between gender, age, and the propensity for entrepreneurship. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers seeking to promote resilient self-employment among vulnerable individuals for post-crisis recovery.

Reframing water demand management: a new co-governance framework coupling supply-side and demand-side solutions toward sustainability

Abstract. Water demand management adopts economic and non-economic measures to reduce human water use. However, it is argued in this study that water use changes may cause idle water supply facilities and revenue losses, thereby challenging the sustainability of water supply systems in the context of climate change. A co-governance framework was established to inspire practical strategies of sustaining water supply systems by re-evaluating the long-term impacts of water demand changes. This framework adopts a broader view of water demand management by integrating the political, financial, and consumptive needs of the government, the market, and the users in the form of a collaborative strategy coupling both supply-side and demand-side solutions. The proposed framework was applied to the analysis of the sustainability of China's South-to-North Water Diversion Project. It is found that the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is not a simple water supply infrastructure but rather a synthesis of supply-side and demand-side water management solutions. Actively releasing water for ecological and cultural purposes is suggested in this study to maintain the socio-ecological benefits of the project in the context of human water use decline. The economic cost of the water supply could be recovered by ongoing revenues that include not only the water fees charged to users but also the benefits gained from cooperative investment in broader water-related businesses by both the state-owned water transfer company and local governments in water-receiving areas. The proposed framework and strategies are valuable for other water utilities around the world, especially those challenged by reduced water demand caused by climate change, high water prices, and economic depression.

Partisanship, elections and lockdowns: Evidence from US states

AbstractIn this article, we use state‐level variation in Senate elections and partisanship to understand the variation in lockdown characteristics in the US. We argue that the state‐level decision makers and their parties weigh off the perceived political costs in an election year of a depressed economy against risks to public health. Democrats and Republicans, and their voters, vary in the weights they attach to these costs and benefits. We are thus exploring the marginal effect of the party–election interaction after accounting for other likely drivers of variations in lockdown characteristics. We find that Republican states with an election have less strict and shorter lockdowns compared to Democratic states with an election. Our results have implications for the communication of pandemic policies, including vaccination strategies.

Gender disparities in the labor market during COVID-19 lockdowns: Evidence from online job postings and applications in China

We investigate the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on labor market gender differences using a unique dataset of job postings and job applicants in China. We find a “she-cession” in both the national lockdown period (the short run) and afterward (the medium run). Compared to the pre-COVID level, job postings in female (male) dominated industries on average decreased by 38.87 % (37.62 %) and 30.93 % (24.32 %) in the short and medium run, respectively, demonstrating a persistently widening gender gap in labor demand. On the labor supply side, the number of female (male) job applicants decreased by 30.28 % (27.04 %) in the short run but increased by 20.83 % (17.62 %) in the medium run, showing that females search for jobs more actively than males did when the national lockdown was lifted. Hence, the she-cession in China becomes more severe in the post-lockdown period, as more females are competing for fewer available positions. Reduced job openings in contact-intensive industries, unequal intra-household division of childcare responsibilities, and decreases in family savings all contribute to these patterns. Our results have general implications for understanding labor market gender differences in public health crises and economic downturns.

How does a poor labour market affect inequalities in access to postsecondary education? Empirical evidence from 31 affluent countries

Abstract This study examines how macroeconomic conditions affect inequality of educational opportunity. Using longitudinal data from 30 European countries and the USA, we study the effect of changing unemployment rates on the extent of social inequality in postsecondary transitions in the period (2004–2016), which includes the Great Recession. The findings from multilevel models with country fixed effects show that rising unemployment rates tend to increase social inequalities in postsecondary transitions, as youth from low-educated families have increased risk for exclusion from both employment and education, while the likelihood of postsecondary enrolment slightly rises for youth from higher-educated families. Yet, economic downturns also incentivize youth whose parents have middle level of education to opt for postsecondary education, especially in contexts where it is more affordable. Our findings suggest that changing opportunity costs and economic insecurity are the relevant factors to explain changing inequalities in access to postsecondary education during a recession.

Transmission of Inflation and Exchange Rate Effects: The Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Methodology

The aim of this study is to delve into the intricate the mechanism through which alterations in currency exchange rates give rise to shifts in inflation rates, while taking into careful consideration the country’s economic cycle. In order to accomplish this objective, we used a dataset that spanned from 1 January 1999 to 1 July 2023, focusing our analytical lens on three specific geographic areas, namely the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Canada. In our pursuit of understanding this complex relationship, we employed the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive model. Our research outcomes can be succinctly encapsulated as follows: in the initial stages, particularly during phases characterized by robust economic growth, the transmission of exchange rate effects onto inflation levels appeared to exhibit a partial impact across all geographic areas under examination. However, during periods marked by economic downturns, both the United Kingdom and Canada displayed a distinctly more comprehensive transmission of these effects. Moreover, the prevailing projections for the forthcoming time horizon, across all the countries encompassed by our study, strongly indicate the onset of an expansionary phase that is projected to extend over a span of 25 months. Lastly, concerning the implications of unexpected disturbances or shocks, it is noteworthy that the response of exchange rates to inflation induced shocks was neither immediate nor as pronounced as the corresponding reaction of inflation to sudden shifts in exchange rates.

The Impact of Monetary Policies on the U.S. Financial Crisis

This paper examines the role of monetary policy in addressing economic crises by analyzing four significant events in U.S. history: Great depression, stagflation in 1970-198, the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19. The monetary policy in the country's economic management has been highlighted in order to resist the decline in financial activity, inflation, large-scale unemployment, and economic recession. History evaluation of policy responses and the results can be employed to assess the efficacy of monetary measures, such as quantitative easing and interest rate adjustments, in achieving financial stability and economic recovery. Nevertheless, this paper points out that it is paramount for the monetary policy adjustment to different economic conditions, and stresses that financial supervision should have the power to avoid speculative activities and guarantee the stability of financial system. The outcomes contribute to deeper knowledge of monetary policy as a tool in managing the crises and provide valuable insights for the policymakers for strategy formulation in future challenges.

The Impact of Logistics Industry Development on Resident Consumption: An Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese Macro Data

Logistics has become an integral part of the market economy, influencing the development of various industries and serving as an essential component of peoples lives. Against the backdrop of global economic downturn following the COVID-19 pandemic, understanding the effects of Chinas logistics industry development on resident consumption becomes crucial. This paper employs a simple linear regression model and utilizes provincial panel data from 2005 to 2022 to explore the impact of logistics industry development on resident consumption in China. Furthermore, it employs heterogeneity analysis methods to study this relationship from different regional, temporal, and consumption perspectives. The findings of this study reveal that (1) there is a positive relationship between logistics industry development and resident consumption, (2) the effect of logistics industry development on increasing resident consumption levels is most significant in the eastern region of China, (3) the positive impact of Chinas logistics industry development on resident consumption increased after the introduction of free shipping by Taobao in 2008, and (4) the positive impact of Chinas logistics industry development on rural consumption is greater than that on urban consumption.