Recession Research Articles

A Critical Examination and Scrutiny between Tata Steels and JSW Steels Limited in India

Abstract: Over the past few years, the Indian steel sector has advanced quickly thanks to solid foundations. The industry is receiving all of the necessary components needed for rapid expansion. The industry is receiving billions of dollars in investments from the private sector and advantageous industrial changes from the government. Due to the robust domestic demand from the building, automotive, and infrastructure sectors, the industry was able to maintain its positive growth momentum even during the difficult economic downturn. With a stellar history, the nation is now well-known in the global steel sector. The remarkable performance of the industry has attracted global steel companies from all over the world. For instance, India's production of crude steel reached 56.6 million metric tonnes in 2009, a modest year-over-year increase of 2.7%. Conversely, a number of Asian nations, including South Korea and Japan, experienced a sharp drop in their production levels. This further demonstrates the Indian steel industry's robustness and resilience against outside risk factors. The impact of the steel industry on two significant businesses, Tata Steels and JSW Steels, is discussed in this essay. Additionally, the author has attempted to use ratio analysis in the study to highlight Tata Steels' and JSW Steels' financial performance.

The resilient self-employability of women and senior people after sudden economic shocks

AbstractIn recent times, various crises have negatively affected the financial stability, job security, and health of countless individuals. According to research, different factors that operate at both the individual and contextual levels can play a prominent role in influencing people's self-employment during periods of economic downturn. This study investigates the changes in the likelihood of self-employment by gender and age across various contexts following sudden shocks. By analyzing the intersection of occupational choice and business cycle theories, this research offers insights into how crises affect people's ability to work for themselves. Using a sample of over 250,000 individuals from sixteen countries and applying a multilevel binary logistic regression analysis, the results confirm that women and older individuals are less inclined to be self-employed in general. However, unexpected economic recessions may lead to a slight increase in their likelihood of self-employment. Furthermore, when women and seniors live in a higher GDP per capita context, this context positively moderates the relationship between gender, age, and the propensity for entrepreneurship. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers seeking to promote resilient self-employment among vulnerable individuals for post-crisis recovery.

Partisanship, elections and lockdowns: Evidence from US states

AbstractIn this article, we use state‐level variation in Senate elections and partisanship to understand the variation in lockdown characteristics in the US. We argue that the state‐level decision makers and their parties weigh off the perceived political costs in an election year of a depressed economy against risks to public health. Democrats and Republicans, and their voters, vary in the weights they attach to these costs and benefits. We are thus exploring the marginal effect of the party–election interaction after accounting for other likely drivers of variations in lockdown characteristics. We find that Republican states with an election have less strict and shorter lockdowns compared to Democratic states with an election. Our results have implications for the communication of pandemic policies, including vaccination strategies.

How does a poor labour market affect inequalities in access to postsecondary education? Empirical evidence from 31 affluent countries

Abstract This study examines how macroeconomic conditions affect inequality of educational opportunity. Using longitudinal data from 30 European countries and the USA, we study the effect of changing unemployment rates on the extent of social inequality in postsecondary transitions in the period (2004–2016), which includes the Great Recession. The findings from multilevel models with country fixed effects show that rising unemployment rates tend to increase social inequalities in postsecondary transitions, as youth from low-educated families have increased risk for exclusion from both employment and education, while the likelihood of postsecondary enrolment slightly rises for youth from higher-educated families. Yet, economic downturns also incentivize youth whose parents have middle level of education to opt for postsecondary education, especially in contexts where it is more affordable. Our findings suggest that changing opportunity costs and economic insecurity are the relevant factors to explain changing inequalities in access to postsecondary education during a recession.

Transmission of Inflation and Exchange Rate Effects: The Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Methodology

The aim of this study is to delve into the intricate the mechanism through which alterations in currency exchange rates give rise to shifts in inflation rates, while taking into careful consideration the country’s economic cycle. In order to accomplish this objective, we used a dataset that spanned from 1 January 1999 to 1 July 2023, focusing our analytical lens on three specific geographic areas, namely the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Canada. In our pursuit of understanding this complex relationship, we employed the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive model. Our research outcomes can be succinctly encapsulated as follows: in the initial stages, particularly during phases characterized by robust economic growth, the transmission of exchange rate effects onto inflation levels appeared to exhibit a partial impact across all geographic areas under examination. However, during periods marked by economic downturns, both the United Kingdom and Canada displayed a distinctly more comprehensive transmission of these effects. Moreover, the prevailing projections for the forthcoming time horizon, across all the countries encompassed by our study, strongly indicate the onset of an expansionary phase that is projected to extend over a span of 25 months. Lastly, concerning the implications of unexpected disturbances or shocks, it is noteworthy that the response of exchange rates to inflation induced shocks was neither immediate nor as pronounced as the corresponding reaction of inflation to sudden shifts in exchange rates.

The Impact of Monetary Policies on the U.S. Financial Crisis

This paper examines the role of monetary policy in addressing economic crises by analyzing four significant events in U.S. history: Great depression, stagflation in 1970-198, the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19. The monetary policy in the country's economic management has been highlighted in order to resist the decline in financial activity, inflation, large-scale unemployment, and economic recession. History evaluation of policy responses and the results can be employed to assess the efficacy of monetary measures, such as quantitative easing and interest rate adjustments, in achieving financial stability and economic recovery. Nevertheless, this paper points out that it is paramount for the monetary policy adjustment to different economic conditions, and stresses that financial supervision should have the power to avoid speculative activities and guarantee the stability of financial system. The outcomes contribute to deeper knowledge of monetary policy as a tool in managing the crises and provide valuable insights for the policymakers for strategy formulation in future challenges.

The Impact of Logistics Industry Development on Resident Consumption: An Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese Macro Data

Logistics has become an integral part of the market economy, influencing the development of various industries and serving as an essential component of peoples lives. Against the backdrop of global economic downturn following the COVID-19 pandemic, understanding the effects of Chinas logistics industry development on resident consumption becomes crucial. This paper employs a simple linear regression model and utilizes provincial panel data from 2005 to 2022 to explore the impact of logistics industry development on resident consumption in China. Furthermore, it employs heterogeneity analysis methods to study this relationship from different regional, temporal, and consumption perspectives. The findings of this study reveal that (1) there is a positive relationship between logistics industry development and resident consumption, (2) the effect of logistics industry development on increasing resident consumption levels is most significant in the eastern region of China, (3) the positive impact of Chinas logistics industry development on resident consumption increased after the introduction of free shipping by Taobao in 2008, and (4) the positive impact of Chinas logistics industry development on rural consumption is greater than that on urban consumption.

Household debt and financial vulnerability: empirical evidence for Spain, 2002–2020

AbstractThe aim of this paper is to analyse the evolution of Spanish households’ indebtedness and financial vulnerability over the course of this century using micro-data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. Our results show a growing debt participation of Spanish households and an increase in the stock of outstanding debt of indebted households, a trend that reversed with the end of the Great Recession. Moreover, the percentage of financially vulnerable households according to three indicators grew dramatically until the end of the downward phase of the last economic cycle and showed considerable signs of improvement during the second half of 2010s. These results, nonetheless, call attention to the number of Spanish households being unable to service their debts in the face of an economic downturn.

Evaluating social protection mitigation effects on HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis through a mathematical modelling study

The global economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, and worldwide inflation surge may have a profound impact on poverty-related infectious diseases, especially in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this work, we developed mathematical models for HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis (TB) in Brazil, one of the largest and most unequal LMICs, incorporating poverty rates and temporal dynamics to evaluate and forecast the impact of the increase in poverty due to the economic crisis, and estimate the mitigation effects of alternative poverty-reduction policies on the incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB up to 2030. Three main intervention scenarios were simulated—an economic crisis followed by the implementation of social protection policies with none, moderate, or strong coverage—evaluating the incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB. Without social protection policies to mitigate the impact of the economic crisis, the burden of HIV/AIDS and TB would be significantly larger over the next decade, being responsible in 2030 for an incidence 13% (95% CI 4–31%) and mortality 21% (95% CI 12–34%) higher for HIV/AIDS, and an incidence 16% (95% CI 10–25%) and mortality 22% (95% CI 15–31%) higher for TB, if compared with a scenario of moderate social protection. These differences would be significantly larger if compared with a scenario of strong social protection, resulting in more than 230,000 cases and 34,000 deaths from AIDS and TB averted over the next decade in Brazil. Using a comprehensive approach, that integrated economic forecasting with mathematical and epidemiological models, we were able to show the importance of implementing robust social protection policies to avert a significant increase in incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB during the current global economic downturn.

Mehmet Şevki (Yazman) as an Author of the Journal Kadro

After the National Struggle, Turkish National State was established under the leadership of Atatürk. After the form of goverment became a republic in 1923, the understanding of national will and national soverignty was adopted. The revolutions made one after the other were meant for the movements to protect and enable this new national state. After the World Economic Depression of 1929, the Republic of Turkey adopted the princeples of statism in 1932. It is possible to say that the Journal Kadro, which started its publication life in January of the same year and published 36 issues in 3 years, tried to produce a unique theory of the Turkish revolution. The articles in the journal were generally focused on culture, literature, domestic and foreign policy and the current political situation. But actually articles on economics and economy were focused. In this context, the authors of the Journal Kadro, who were motivated by Turkey’s need for economic development, published original ideas on industrialisation and technological progress. In this paper, the articles of M. Şevki (Yazman) Bey, one of the authors of the Journal Kadro were evaluated. It was tried to reveal that the ideas and thoughts put forward by Yazman contributed to the economic, technical and scientific development of Turkey.

The performance of labor and downward mobility in Steven Soderbergh’s recession trilogy (2009–2012): The Girlfriend Experience, Haywire, and Magic Mike

ABSTRACT This essay argues that Steven Soderbergh’s 2009–2012 films – The Girlfriend Experience (2009), Haywire (2011) and Magic Mike (2012) – form a loose trilogy depicting the plight of the working class (or precariat) during the Great Recession Linking textual analysis to the economic downturn reveals Soderbergh’s significant critique about this period, ultimately causing him to announce his retirement. His protagonists’ predicaments are the same as contract workers in the new, neoliberal economy, including the creative class in conglomerate Hollywood.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on some fiscal and monetary indicators in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on some fiscal and monetary indicators in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.Design/methodology/approachThe research relied on data, studies and reports issued by the International Monetary Fund, Arab Monetary Fund, Saudi Central Bank, Investing Website and the World in Data Website.FindingsMany sectors have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, which outbreak has been associated with a high cost, in addition to increased inflation and prices, a result that was confirmed by the increase in consumer price indices for different sectors. The general consumer price index for the second period rose above that of the first period, while an upward shift occurred in the curve depicting the Saudi Riyal exchange rate against the United States (US) dollar during the second period above that of the first period, only in slope, due to outbreak of the pandemic. Impact of the number of daily new cases infected with COVID-19 was the highest on the opening and closing price indices of the food retail sector, the pharmaceutical sector and the transportation sector; while impact of the number of daily deaths by COVID-19 was the highest on the opening and closing price indices of the banking sector, the general index and the investment and finance sector. In addition, impact of the daily reproduction rate of COVID-19 was the highest on the opening price indices of the energy sector, the food production sector and the transportation sector.Research limitations/implicationsThe research aims to demonstrate measures taken by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia through fiscal and monetary policies.Practical implicationsThe COVID-19 pandemic is still an ongoing global pandemic. The virus was first identified in Wuhan City in China at the beginning of December 2019. At the end of January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreak of the virus represented a public health emergency, and later, on March 11, 2020, WHO declared the situation had transformed into a pandemic. Until January 17, 2022, the pandemic had caused more than 328 million cases and 545 million deaths, while 188 million of the cases had recovered. It is worth mentioning that the pandemic caused several social and economic disruptions, including a global economic recession; shortages in goods, supplies and equipment due to consumers' panic and thus tendency to buy; besides causing other disruptions like the negative impacts on health, as well as political, cultural, religious and sport events that influenced economic policies, including both the fiscal and monetary policies of world countries (Wikipedia, 2022).Social implicationsSocial implications steps that taken to reduce the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to measuring the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic (as the main event next to which other events fade up) on some of the fiscal and monetary indicators for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.Originality/valueThe research aims to demonstrate measures taken by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia through fiscal and monetary policies to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to measuring the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic (as the main event next to which other events fade up) on some of the fiscal and monetary indicators for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

The 2000–2008 Economic Crisis in Zimbabwe

Between 2000 and 2008, Zimbabwe was hit by one of the devastating economic situations which threatened the lives of businesses and also led to the closure of several businesses. The main purpose of this paper was to trace the survivors of Zimbabwe’s 2000-2008 economic distress and establish the strategies they employ to avert future economic pandemics in the country. A mixed research approach was utilised to carry out the study, with data being collected from a sample of 105 business people and their employees in rural Zimbabwe. A self-designed questionnaire and interview guide were used to solicit data from participants with descriptive and thematic analysis data analysis methods being utilised as data analysis tools. The study revealed that while a significant number of businesses closed their businesses due to the economic downturn some survived and self-rejuvenated and moved on in 2009 when the economy stabilised. The strategies most businesses in rural areas employ to avert effects of future economic distress include among others; 1) diversification, 2) trading in foreign currency, 3) avoiding selling goods on credit, and 4) keeping savings in USD and traditional banks. It was recommended that businesses in rural areas need to manage their businesses in a more professional way so that they do not easily get affected by socio-economic shocks and political upheavals.

An analytical investigation of consequences of terrorism in the Middle East

The Middle East has experienced significant and wide-ranging consequences due to terrorism and the resulting War on Terror. The region saw substantial impacts as a result of the War on Terror. This study briefly overviews the security, economic and political repercussions of the prolonged conflict in the region. The rise of terrorism and the War on Terror in the Middle East have seriously affected security, political stability, intensified extremist movements, given rise to proxy wars, caused economic recession, humanitarian crises, restricted civil liberties, and disturbed the balance of power due to geopolitical shifts in regional affairs. The US attack on Iraq, the emergence of radical factions like ISIS and Al-Qaeda, refugee crises, civil wars and resultant humanitarian crises in Yemen, Syria, Libya, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine, destroyed many countries' economies and paralysed governments in affected countries, led to sectarianism and power vacuums, and ultimately undermined peace, security and sustainable development in the Middle East. It also had negative economic, security, and political impacts on other parts of the world. In addition, the intervention of external powers in the region and their counterterrorism measures have also motivated many people to join militant organizations. The grievances of common people and their immense civilian losses in the War on Terror gave rise to anti-Western sentiments and joining anti-Western militant groups. Therefore, understanding these consequences is crucial to developing a more effective approach to address the impacts of the War on Terror and restore peace and stability in the Middle East.

Vitrification of feline ovarian tissue: Comparison of protocols based on equilibration time and temperature

Global contraction of biodiversity pushed most members of Felidae into threatened or endangered list except the domestic cat (Felis catus) thence preferred as the best model for conservation studies. One of the emerging conservation strategies is vitrification of ovarian tissue which is field-friendly but not yet standardized. Thus, our main goal was to establish a suitable vitrification protocol for feline ovarian tissue in field condition. Feline ovarian tissue fragments were punched with biopsy punch (1.5 mm diameter) and divided into 4 groups. Group 1 was fresh control (Fr), while the other three were exposed to 3 vitrification protocols (VIT_CT, VIT_RT1 and VIT_RT2). VIT_CT involved two step equilibrations in solutions containing dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) and ethylene glycol (EG) for 10 min each at 4 °C. VIT_RT1 involved three step equilibration in solutions containing DMSO, EG, polyvinylpyrrolidone and sucrose for 14 min in total at room temperature, while in VIT_RT2 all conditions remained the same as in VIT_RT1 except equilibration timing which was reduced by half. After vitrification and warming, fragments were morphologically evaluated and then cultured for six days. Subsequently, follicular morphology, cellular proliferation (expression of Ki-67, MCM-7) and apoptosis (expression of caspase-3) were evaluated, and data obtained were analysed using generalised linear mixed model and chi square tests. Proportions of intact follicles were higher in Fr (P = 0.0001) and VIT_RT2 (P = 0.0383) in comparison to the other protocols both post warming and after the six-day culture. Generally, most follicles remained at primordial state which was confirmed by the low expression of Ki-67, MCM-7 markers. In conclusion, VIT_RT2 protocol, which has lower equilibration time at room temperature has proven superior thus recommended for vitrification of feline ovarian tissue.

Why Do More People Commit Suicide after the Economic Bubble

This paper examines the relationship between the economic recession and the high suicidal rates in Japan during the post-economic bubble in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The aim of the study is to explore the relationship between the economic recession, mental health, suicide prevalence and sociocultural dynamics. The literature review and empirical analysis show compelling evidence linking economic instability, financial distress, and unemployment to increased suicide rates. In addition, this paper explores the interplay of cultural factors for instance, stigma surrounding mental health and collective norms, in explaining the vulnerability experienced by individuals during economic recessions and hard times. Key findings emphasize the role of economic stability in increasing vulnerabilities as well as the effects of unemployment, familial relationships and self-esteem. The findings also show that the societal pressure to adhere to traditional roles, especially in times of economic uncertainty, is a key stressor affecting mental well-being. The study advocates for detailed research strategies such as interviews and surveys to further investigate causal relationships. This research provides key insights into the varying factors that contribute to suicide during economic crises, suggesting the need for holistic interventions that address both sociocultural and economic dimensions.

Multistakeholder Participation, Collaboration, and Networking in Disaster Risk Reduction and Pandemic Management: Insights and Future Policy Framework

The natural and manmade disasters impact a society with loss of assets and human lives. Disasters leavepeople in vulnerable conditions and an overall economic slowdown is observed. The impact of disasters is highly complex and multidimensional in nature. It becomes imperative to handle the complexity of issues with comprehensive approach. Managing disasters effectively is one of the important challenges any government faces when it tries to be prepared with appropriate mitigation, rescue, and relief strategies. The unexpected nature and urgency related to Disaster Risk Reduction makes it important and relevant to involvemultistakeholders. This will help to bring down the severity and impact of the disaster on human lives and losses. Disaster Risk Reductionrequires meticulous planning and sharing of the responsibility among multistakeholders through networking so as to bring down the severity and minimize the negative impact of a disaster. Many research studies have suggested the multistakeholder approach in addressing the disasters. There are several gaps such as inefficiency of vertical management to deal the issues, involvement of multiple stakeholders, and lack of local public supportfor disaster. This paper, considering the case of COVID-19 as a pandemic and disaster, discusses the importance of multistakeholder participation. The paper presents an extensive review of the papers on the relevance ofparticipation of multistakeholdersin Disaster Risk Reduction and explores the scope and challenges involved and suggests policies to address the disasters, which utilizes Multistakeholder Participation.

Efficacy of Digital Pricing Strategies on Customer Buying Decisions in the ECommerce Industry: A PLS-SEM Approach

E-commerce is a vital component of global retail sustainability, expanding at a rate of 14% annually, fuelled by increased internet adoption (55%), with over five billion users worldwide. In Africa, e-commerce revenues have surged to $31.18 million, with Nigeria’s Business to Consumer (B2C) index hitting 53.2 points and boasting a 55% internet penetration rate in 2023, ranking fourth highest on the continent. The globalisation of markets has exposed ecommerce companies to economic downturns, compelling them to adopt strategic pricing approaches to ensure sustained profitability and competitiveness. Consumers have become more price-sensitive, emphasising the need for firms to accurately gauge pricing sensitivity to influence purchasing decisions effectively. This research explores how ecommerce stores utilise digital pricing strategies to impact the purchasing behaviour of Gen Z consumers in Nigeria. By employing an exploratory research design, the study utilised an online survey distributed through Google Form, targeting tech-savvy Gen Z consumers, who represent over 85% of the 384-sample size derived using the Borden sampling model. By being guided by the theory of planned behaviour, the PLS-SEM model indicates that special event pricing (0.433, 91.8% effect), sample product pricing (0.236, 85.0% effect), and loss leader pricing (0.236, 93% effect) significantly impact Gen Z’s consumer patronage (62.4%). Furthermore, product lining pricing (0.457, 93.7% high effect), captive pricing (0.161, 96.21% high effect), and optional pricing strategy (0.252, 96.0% medium effect) influence Gen Z’s online purchase satisfaction (67.2%). This underscores the importance of digital pricing strategies in shaping Gen Z’s online purchase behaviour. The research recommends the need for online stores to incorporate promotional and product mix strategies in business tactics; governments should monitor fair pricing practices, and online retailers should educate consumers about pricing strategies to foster informed purchasing decisions. The research acknowledges potential biases in data collection, stemming from unequal online access among Gen Z consumers, resulting in a partial representation of the diverse range of Gen Z behaviours across the continent, as various cultural, economic, and social factors can influence purchasing behaviours.

Effects of Future Subjective Expectations on Cognitive Decline and Dementia among Middle-Aged and Older Adults.

This study investigated the impact of subjective expectations of the future (e.g., income, life expectancy, and national policies) on the onset of dementia and mild cognitive impairment by sex and age in middle-aged and older adults. The Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (KLoSA) data from 2008 to 2020, comprising 4116 people above 45 years, were used. A time-series analysis and multiple panel logistic regression were conducted to highlight subjective expectation trends and their effect on dementia and mild cognitive impairment, respectively. Low subjective expectations of the future negatively affected cognitive impairment (total: odds ratio [OR] = 1.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.01-1.03) and dementia (total: OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.03-1.06), and those of national policies were the biggest risk factors for cognitive impairment (total: OR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.12-1.22) and dementia (total: OR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.07-1.13). Individuals about to retire and with low expectations of workability were more likely to develop cognitive impairment (total: OR = 1.03, 95% CI = 1.02-1.06). Subjective expectations of economic downturn also caused cognitive impairment, especially in women (OR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.01-1.07) and early stage older adults (OR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.02-1.10). Policymakers must consider the impact of changes in national policies and living environments on cognitive impairment and dementia in older adults.

Environmental Degradation: Causes, Effects and Solutions

Environmental degradation is a pressing global issue with far-reaching consequences for ecosystems, human health, and sustainable development. This comprehensive article explores the various causes of environmental degradation, ranging from poverty and urbanization to industrialization, deforestation, pollution, natural disasters, population growth, climate change, unrestricted development, soil damage, energy use, unsustainable agriculture, and landfills. It examines the various effects of environmental degradation, including impacts on human health, biodiversity loss, global warming, ozone layer depletion, atmospheric changes, scarcity of natural resources, loss of the tourism industry, and economic recession. Moreover, the article suggests a wide array of solutions to address environmental degradation, encompassing tree plantation, regenerative farming, spiritual renewal, pollution control, reduced fuel consumption, waste management strategies, water conservation, sustainable initiatives, public awareness campaigns, social movements, government policies and international cooperation through UN initiatives.