Economic Dependency Ratio Research Articles

The Influence of Economic Growth, Dependency Ratio, Education Level, and Minimum Wage on Poverty Levels in Kebumen Regency

The Influence of Economic Growth, Dependency Ratio, Education Level, and Minimum Wage on Poverty Levels in Kebumen Regency

Demographic and labor force impacts of future immigration flows into Europe: does an immigrant’s region of origin matter?

Immigration has become a key demographic component in developed European nations. At the same time, many countries have seen an increase in immigration from non-European origins and more diversified migrant flows. In most population projections, however, immigrants are considered an almost homogenous population. This study utilizes a population microsimulation projection model (QuantMig-Mic) for 31 European countries that includes place of birth as a source of heterogeneity for components that could impact population size, age structures, and economic dependency ratios. We simulated different scenarios from 2020 to 2060 in which the birth regions of future immigrant flows were changed drastically compared to recent trends. Our results showed that major shifts in the origin of immigration flows toward Europe would impact the spatial distribution of the population in the continent and therefore—at the local level—the population size of some countries. We found that the age structure would be only marginally affected and that shifts in the composition of immigration flows would not significantly alter the increasing age dependency ratio. Moreover, even in the countries most impacted in terms of population size, no scenario led to notable changes in the total labor force participation rate or in the educational structure of the labor force.

Residential history and changes in perceived health-The Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 study.

Neighbourhood socioeconomic status and physical access to amenities and greenness are factors that have been associated with mental, physical and perceived health. However, associations between long-time exposure to these circumstances and changes in perceived health in the middle-age population have remained a relatively underexamined area. This study aimed to examine the association between residential environmental history and changes in perceived health in the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 (N=5973) population encompassing the two latest data collections at 31 and 46 years of age. Longitudinal time-varying geographical data on the residential environment's economic dependency ratio, population density, distance to local services and presence of green areas were derived from various spatial registers and linked to cohort members' exact residential history. According to a multivariable logistic regression analysis, having a residential history in municipalities with higher-than-average (poor) economic dependency ratios was associated with higher odds of poor perceived health changing to good. Among men, living farther than 2km away from local services was associated with a higher risk of change from good perceived health to poor, and living farther than 300m away from green areas was associated with a lower risk of change from good perceived health to poor. The residential environments's urban/rural context may be one factor contributing to the findings. The results point to the importance of considering local residential area characteristics and residence duration in certain areas as potential determinants of health. Finally, having long-term residential history in areas with poor access to services and amenities has the potential to undermine health during one's lifetime.

Age as a Determinant of Livelihood Strategies and Poverty in Maroua

The main question we asked in this work was: what is the state of the livelihood of the people of Maroua considering their high poverty rate (74%) and an economic dependency ratio of 1.19? The main objective was to examine how age influences livelihood in Maroua in terms of income difference, subsistence resources, quality of life: feeding habits, health-seeking behavior, number of persons per house, possession of mobile and immobile goods. We used the stratified sampling method, in which we administered 720 questionnaires to men and women ensuring that the percentage of females equal that of males as much as possible for easy comparison. We obtained the following results: those who are between 36–46 and 47–57 significantly produce millet, Niébé, groundnuts, and other subsistence resources such as corn which significantly help them to survive. This is because those who are between 36–46 are significantly civil servants and farmers. Older persons only significantly produce millet and groundnut. This explains why those who are between 36–46 and 47–57 have a higher income than those who are older than them. Consequently, those who are between 36-46 years,47-57 years vary their meals more than four times per week because as compared to the other age groups they earn higher income per month and they produce or have nearly all the subsistence resources in Maroua. More so, the age group 47-48 stock more foods than the other age-groups.

ELDERLY DEPENDENCY IN INDIA: FINDINGS FROM CENSUS DATA

The changing demographic profile resulting in ageing of population has thrown many new challenges in the social, economic and political domains in India due to the huge number of aged population. The economic support to the older persons is very much dependent upon the earning ability of the adults. The study mainly focuses on the quantum of dependency burden and assesses the dependency burden in relation to the prevailing economic situation. The old age dependency ratio (OADR) in India estimated as ratio of population 60+ to that of 15-59 years is found to be 0.14 and the old age economic dependency ratio (OAEDR) is much higher at 0.23. Both OADR and OAEDR is highest in Kerala followed by Punjab and Haryana among the major states in India. Elderly dependency is high in most of the states and the economy is not prepared to bear the burden. The Economic Dependency ratio is almost three times the total dependency when we add the number of non workers 15-59 years in the dependent group and eliminate non workers 15-59 years from the economically active group in India. The unemployment rates are found to be quite high in states where the elderly dependency burden is higher. Increased longevity demands higher savings rates to cater to the needs of the old-old group. So the benefit of having a large working age population remains to be tapped through creating more employment opportunities.

The Socio-Spatial Aspect of Rurality – A Case Study of Rural Settlements in Central Serbia

Contemporary rural areas have been significantly changed. Thus, previous rural typologies are no longer valid and there is a need for developing and standardising new measures of rurality. We developed a set of 23 rural indicators which were tested on data on the characteristics of rural areas in contemporary Serbian society. Based on statistical analyses, four variables were excluded and three main rural attributes were confirmed (population change, economic dependency ratio, population density in the built-up area). The reduced set of 19 variables could be a relevant platform for establishing a rural typology in Central Serbia, but also for conducting precise analyses of the transformation of rural areas in similar post-socialist societies.

Factors Affecting Smallholder Farmers Participations in Cluster Crop Production: Evidence from Selected Districts of West Shewa Zone, Oromia National Regional State, Ethiopia

| The modern conception of agribusiness development clusters emerged in the 1960s around traditional export commodities such as coffee, cotton and cocoa. Thus, this study was initiated to describe socio-economic factors of cluster crop producers, challenges of cluster crop production, and examine factors affecting smallholder farmers’ participation decision in cluster crop production. By employing two-stage sampling techniques, data was collected from 160 farm households of selected Western Shewa zone districts, namely Ejersa-Lafo, and Bako-Tibe. Data was emanated from primary sources, which administrated by semi-structured questionnaire using personnel interview. On top of this, the focus group discussion was carried out on particular topics to supplement primary data source discussions. Both descriptive statistics and a probit regression model was employed for analysis. The descriptive statistics revealed that 127 sampled farmers participated in cluster crop production, while the remaining 33 were not. On the other hand, the result of probit model regression had shown that household-related factors such as being a male, economic dependency ratio, farmer experience, marketable surplus supply, and seed multiplication objectives were positively affecting the probability of participation decision while wealth variable like owning a large number of livestock was negatively affecting participation decision. Further, institutional service factors like the acquisition of awareness and frequency of extension contact positively affecting participation decision; however, obtaining training had a negative effect. Generally, farm household’s internal factors and external factors affecting cluster crop production. Therefore, intensive support for program implementation can be expected from the government by augmentation of stakeholder coordination to aspire to agribusiness growth.

Demographics, Labour Market, and Pension Sustainability in Hungary

The sustainability of an unfunded pension system depends highly on demographic and labour market trends, i.e. how fertility, mortality, and employment rates change. In this paper we provide a brief summary of recent developments in these fields in Hungary and draw up a picture of the current situation. Then, we forecast the path of the economic old-age dependency ratio, i.e. the ratio of the elderly and employed populations. We make different alternative assumptions about fertility, mortality, and employment rates. According to our baseline scenario the dependency ratio is expected to rise from 40.6% to 77% by 2050. Such a sharp increase makes policy intervention inevitable. Based on our sensitivity analysis, the only viable remedy is increasing the retirement age.

(The causal relationship between Saudi women's empowerment and economic growth (mid-2015-1999: العلاقة السببية بين تمكين المرأة السعودية والنمو الاقتصادي للفترة (1999- 2015)

This research aims to identify the effect of the economic empowerment of Saudi women on economic growth during the period (1990 - 2015). The researcher used the descriptive analytical method. In its study, it adopted the standard methods of unit root testing to test the stability of time series. The results of the test showed that the time series of the variables studied were first-class. The results found that there was a relationship between economic growth and the proportion of girls in general education in the long term. The results also showed a relationship between economic growth and dependency ratio in the long term. Gangerger's causality test showed a positive, one-way relationship between economic growth and the proportion of girls in public education in the long run, indicating that economic growth affects the increase in girls 'education, while girls' education does not affect economic growth. The results did not show any statistically significant relationship between economic growth and women's participation in the labor market. In light of these results, the study presented a number of recommendations, the most important of which are: To find the best ways to activate the vision of 2030, especially the items related to empowering women and raising their contribution to the GDP; opening the fields for women to have their own work through raising awareness among the community; Education and workshops for women, and abandon the legacy that hinders women's work and participation in economic life.

SOCIAL ECONOMIC STATUS TO THE NUMBER OF LIFE EXPECTANCY

The life expectancy is determined by the social economic status of the population. The intended social economic status includes economic growth, inflation, Gini ratio, dependency ratio, and poverty. The effect of these variables on life expectancy can be partial or simultaneous among the variables. Economic growth can reduce poverty if followed by an equitable distribution. Poverty rate is also worsen by the number of dependency ratio; the productive age population to the young and elderly population. This study is intended to determine the partial relationship, between each variable to population life expectancy, and simultaneous relationships. By using the data time series and cross section for 43 years, based from the Central Bureau of Statistics and several other official sources. Using the path analysis tool, it is known that 43 percent of the life expectancy of the population is simultaneously affected by social economic status.

Does education matter? – economic dependency ratios by education

When studying the economic consequences of changes in the age structure of the population, looking at economic dependency ratios provides us with some descriptive and intuitive initial insights. In this paper, we present two economic dependency ratios. The first ratio is based on economic activity status, and relates the number of dependent individuals to the number of workers. The second dependency ratio relates consumption to total labour income. To build up the second ratio, we rely on the recently set up National Transfer Accounts (NTA) for Austria. Simulations of the employment-based dependency ratio with constant agespecific employment rates indicate that the employment-based dependency ratio will increase from 1.23 in 2010 to 1.88 in 2050, based on a population scenario that assumes low mortality, medium fertility and medium migration in the future. The corresponding values for the NTA-based dependency with constant age-specific labour income and consumption are 1.12 in 2010 and 1.49 in 2050.We then compare how the dependency ratio would di?er if we accounted for the increasing levels of educational attainment. While the education-specific age patterns of economic activities are kept constant as of 2010, the changing educational composition up to 2050 is accounted for. In Austria, higher educated individuals enter and exit the labour market at older ages and have more total labour income than lower educated individuals. Our simulations of the education-specific economic dependency ratios up to 2050, based on the optimistic projection scenario of low mortality and high educational levels in the future, show that the employment-based ratio will increase to 1.68 and the NTA-based dependency ratio will rise to 1.28. These increases are still considerable, but are well below the values found when changes in the educational composition are not taken into account. We can therefore conclude that the trend towards higher levels of educational attainment may help to reduce economic dependency.

Broadening demographic horizons: demographic studies beyond age and gender

Introduction Broadening Demographic Horizons: Demographic Studies Beyond Age and Gender Alexia Prskawetz, Warren Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov Demographic Debate Are there principles of demography? A search for unifying (and hegemonic) Themes William P. Butz Can Taylor's law of fluctuation scaling and its relatives help select more plausible multi-regional population forecasts? Joel E. Cohen, Helge Brunborg, Meng Xu Probabilistic demographic forecasts Nico Keilman Education and demography: a review of world population and human capital in the 21st century Philip Rees Research Articles Population dynamics and human capital in Muslim countries Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi, Gavin W. Jones Survival inequalities and redistribution in the Italian pension system Graziella Caselli, Rosa Maria Lipsi Does education matter? – economic dependency ratios by education Alexia Prskawetz, Bernhard Hammer Multistate projections of Australia’s Indigenous population: interacting area group and identification status change James Raymer, Yanlin Shi, James O'Donnell, Nicholas Biddle The end of population ageing in the more developed world Warren Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov, Patrick Gerland From intentions to births: paths of realization in a multi-dimensional life course Maria Rita Testa, Francesco Rampazzo Towards causal forecasting of international migration Frans Willekens Data and Trends Summary of Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries Nicholas Gailey, Wolfgang Lutz "Express transitioning" as a special case of the demographic transition Marc Luy, Bernhard Köppen

Emerging issues in the life cycle perspective in the context of population peaking

This paper proposes a theoretical examination of how taking a life cycle perspective can provide a better assessment of Canadian public policies in the context of population peaking. It links the changing life cycle patterns brought by the increase in the age of entry into the different phases of life and the increase in life expectancy to emerging issues related to population peaking such as the recruitment and the aging of immigrants or the future labour demand and supply by broad skill levels. Although most of the paper is theoretical in nature, a short section of it takes an empirical look and contrasts cross-sectional and life cycle estimates of economic dependency ratios for Canadian-born and foreign-born. These estimates are obtained from a dynamic microsimulation model of the Canadian population (LSD-C) that takes into account, among other things, differentials in labour force participation or educational attainment between population groups. The article concludes with suggestions on the most important data gaps that need to be filled to better inform policymaking processes.Ce papier propose un examen théorique de comment la prise en compte d'une perspective de cycle de vie peut fournir une meilleure évaluation des politiques publiques canadiennes dans le contexte d’une population atteignant un niveau maximal. Il lie les changements engendrés par l'augmentation de l'âge aux transitions entre les différentes phases du cycle de vie et par l'augmentation de l'espérance de vie aux questions émergentes liées à la population atteignant un niveau maximal. Par exemple, on y retrouve une discussion des implications en ce qui concerne le recrutement et le vieillissement des immigrants ou encore l'offre et la demande future de travail selon le niveau de compétence. Bien que la majeure partie de l’article prenne un caractère théorique, une courte section plus empirique présente une estimation des rapports de dépendance économiques pour les Canadiens de naissance et les Canadiens nés à l'étranger, contrastant les évaluations transversales et longitudinales. Ces évaluations sont obtenues à l’aide d'un modèle de microsimulation dynamique de la population canadienne (LSD-C) qui prend en compte, entre autres, les différences entre les groupes de populations au niveau de l’activité sur le marché du travail ou au niveau de la scolarité. L'article conclut avec des suggestions sur les principales lacunes de données qui devraient être comblées afin de mieux informer des politiques.

Measures of Population Ageing in Australia from 1950 to 2050

This study utilises annual historic and forecasted population figures from the UN World Population Prospects (2015 Revision) to describe Australia’s population changes for the period 1950–2050. A number of population indices have been employed to describe these changes. Specifically, we constructed population pyramids and computed measures including economic dependency ratios, support ratios, ageing/Billeter indices and coefficients of inflow, outflow and exchange of productive populations. Our results suggest that a combination of factors including declining fertility and mortality have contributed to Australia’s ageing population. The implications of these changes are broad and raise major challenges for Australia’s economy and infrastructure. To tackle both the drivers and impacts of population ageing, multi-faceted approaches are needed together with prompt evaluation to ensure that current and future challenges posed by population changes in Australia are fully contained.

Quantifying Economic Dependency.

In this paper we compare several types of economic dependency ratios for a selection of European countries. These dependency ratios take into account not only the demographic structure of the population, but also the differences in age-specific economic behaviour such as labour market activity, income and consumption as well as age-specific public transfers. In selected simulations where we combine patterns of age-specific economic behaviour and transfers with population projections, we show that in all countries population ageing would lead to a pronounced increase in dependency ratios if present age-specific patterns were not to change. Our analysis of cross-country differences in economic dependency demonstrates that these differences are driven by both differences in age-specific economic behaviour and in the age composition of the populations. The choice of which dependency ratio to use in a specific policy context is determined by the nature of the question to be answered. The comparison of our various dependency ratios across countries gives insights into which strategies might be effective in mitigating the expected increase in economic dependency due to demographic change.

Predictors of Investment Expenditure from Foreign Remittances in the Sylhet Region of Bangladesh: A Household-Level Analysis

Remittances, the most explicit outcome of international migration, play a vital role in the socioeconomic development of Bangladesh. The optimum allocation of these scarce resources is of utmost importance for intergenerational consumption smoothing. This study explores the household-level factors of spending remittances in different investment sectors. The study uses a primary dataset from a field survey covering 500 migrant and 250 non-migrant households from 30 clusters of the Sylhet region of Bangladesh. Results indicate that total household income, ownership of residence, asset score, operative land, household size and economic dependency ratio are the significant determinants for investment in an absolute sense. The models for identifying the predictors in different investment sectors suggest that household income, ownership of residence, asset score, education of the household head and household size are common determinants for all the sectors. Substantial investments in different sectors may be determined by several predictors, such as household income, ownership of residence, asset score, education of household head and household size.

Analysis of Economic Performances and Factors Affecting Welfare in Central Java (2010 – 2013)

Objective - This study describes the economic performances of the Central Java province from 2010 to 2013. In line with that, it analyses the effects of the economic performance, dependency ratio, employment, and fiscal decentralization on the welfare of the people in the region. Methodology/Technique - This study uses the panel data of between 2010 and 2013. Data were analysed using descriptive analysis and multiple linear regression analysis. Findings - Descriptive analysis of the Economic Performance Index indicates that the economic performance of regencies/cities in Central Java province has improved.Results of the Multiple Linear Regression analysis indicates that the economic performance, the young dependency ratio, and Regional Own-Source Revenue positively and significantly influences the welfare of the people in the region. Novelty - It is recommended that local governments reduce the development inequality by directing the regional development towards its main characteristics.Local governments need coherence, consistency, and synchronization between development planning and funding as well as between the Local Government Unit where the accountability of the local government's performance is based on well-defined indicators and mechanisms. Type of Paper: Empirical Keywords: Economic Performance; Development gaps; HDI; Dependency Ratio; Employment; Fiscal Decentralization.

Probabilidad de corrección súbita de cuenta corriente para costa rica: un enfoque de análisis de supervivencia

Mediante un modelo de análisis de supervivencia con datos de panel, se realiza un análisis exploratorio para la estimación de la probabilidad de correcciones súbitas en la cuenta corriente costarricense. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que la probabilidad de reversión de cuenta corriente disminuye cuando: i) se incrementa el crecimiento real para los siguientes cinco años; ii) mejora la situación externa de países considerados similares; iii) aumenta la tasa de dependencia económica; iv) el porcentaje del PIB mundial con el que se han ratificado acuerdos comerciales se incrementa; v) la acumulación de reservas monetarias se acelera; y vi) el marco institucional se vuelve más democrático. Por otra parte, una mayor productividad total de los factores en los cinco años siguientes incrementa la probabilidad de reversión de cuenta corriente. El efecto del control de capitales sobre la probabilidad mostró un comportamiento ambiguo. El análisis se realiza para 116 países con datos anuales de 1981 a 2012.

International Variation in Ageing and Economic Dependency: A Cohort Perspective

Within this analysis of demographic and economic dependency ratios for 45 countries around the world, we reiterate the importance of age- and gender-specific employment levels as well as their determinants when discussing the economic challenges associated with population ageing. Building upon existing research on economic dependency, we portray and discuss cohort variation in employment and its possible effect on the challenges of population ageing, focusing on the implications of high youth unemployment, the role of changes in female employment and the evolution of retirement patterns across cohorts. The insights from our analysis reaffirm findings elsewhere that younger populations may not be as well off in the light of demographic change as an analysis of their demographic structure alone would suggest and stress the importance of considering the cohort dimension of employment in this discussion.

Zmiany w zasobach i jakości kapitału ludzkiego na obszarach wiejskich Polski i wschodnich Niemiec

The purpose of this article is to present changes in capability and quality of human capital and to assess the impact of implementing ESF co-financed interventions in improving the quality of human resources. An important element of the work was the genesis of research in the subject of human capital as one of the most important economic resources. For this purpose, a review of economic theories regarding the importance and role of human capital in socio-economic development of the country and region was conducted. The areas of study comprised Northern and Western Poland and East Germany. To evaluate the quality of human capital demographic (population growth, migration) and social elements (employment, economic dependency ratio, unemployment) were considered. Conducted research allowed for identification of rural human capital growth areas and potential problem areas.