Econometric Studies Research Articles

An Econometric Study on Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Exports: A Case of Russia, Azerbaijan and Indonesia

After oil crisis in 1970s, discussions of the oil price effect on economies have accelerated. In addition to being a exhaustible energy source, the environmental pollution it generates has led many developed countries to shift towards renewable energy sources. Furthermore, fluctuations in oil prices and increased dependence on it have disruptive effects on national economies. All these factors pose a threat to countries with oil reserves and economies heavily reliant on the oil industry. This study, examines the relationship between oil prices, exports, and exchange rates in Russia, Azerbaijan, and Indonesia whose sum of oil consumption and production exceed that of Europe but have not been the primary focus of previous research. This study employs a panel causality test and encompasses data from 1996 to 2021. The findings indicate the existence of a unidirectional causality relationship from oil prices to both exports and exchange rates in the countries studied. Additionally, the research reveals a unidirectional relationship between exports and exchange rates.

REGIONAL FORCES AND URBAN FORMS: GROWTH DIRECTION

The possibility of influence that the regional system may have on the urban forms that cities tend to assume is discussed. The difference in scale involved in this vision, which ranges from the regional scale, passes through the municipal scale, and given this situation that presents the way in which urban form, city and region are approached today, it appears that the Studies lack greater connection and assessment of influences between different scales and impacts. This research is carried out through the proposal of a methodological guide, and the instrument developed to obtain results was the collection of data and construction of variables of interest, which can provide a useful tool to study the influence of spatial effects on aggregation of spatial interaction models and how much they can contribute in different ways to substantial achievements in spatial econometric studies, in addition to suggesting statistical tools that infer the value, intensity and probable hierarchy of average flows at certain levels of aggregation of real and estimated available variables.

The Influence of Speculation in Food and Commodities and the Impact of Futures Prices on Spot Prices- Evidence from two Behavioral Experiments

This paper examines the impact of speculation on commodity and food futures on spot prices. Econometric studies contradict each other, coming not to a clear empirical outcome. Therefore, we take an alternative methodological approach with two behavioral experiments. The outcome shows, that tendencies in futures prices influence the price-setting behavior of market players in the spot market in the same direction. Since futures prices had no direct influence on profits and there were no other influences, futures prices must have influenced the expectations of market participants psychologically. Speculation with futures prices thus has an influence on spot prices via expectations. When speculation involves commodities and food in the future market serving crucial real economic functions it can lead to substantial misallocations and damages, why speculation should be regulated.

Analysis of the Relationship Between Entrepreneurship and Trade Openness within the Framework of Quantile Panel Approach: The Case of OECD Countries

This study aims to examine the impact of the trade openness of selected OECD countries on entrepreneurship. There is a general acceptance that the impact of the trade openness of economies on entrepreneurship is positive. In the analysis process, econometric modeling studies were carried out based on the data of the selected OECD countries for the 2006-2020 period. The quantile panel regression technique was used to test the impact of trade openness on entrepreneurship. The quantile panel regression analyses have been carried out with an approach that considers the asymmetric situation between the selected OECD countries. Hence, this approach has been a contribution to the literature. Policy recommendations are presented within the framework of empirical findings. According to the empirical findings, entrepreneurship activities are important in terms of increasing economic performance in the selected OECD countries and show that policies should be implemented in support of entrepreneurship activities. The necessity of considering the impact of the trade openness level on entrepreneurship in determining policies has been revealed. In particular, the fact that the economies assess this issue in the policy development process can be considered a strategic instrument.

An analysis of fiscal management and macroeconomic stability: An econometric study of public policies in Latin American countries

An analysis of fiscal management and macroeconomic stability: An econometric study of public policies in Latin American countries

Spatial-structural analysis of macroeconomic factors' impact on carbon emissions in East Africa: a spatial econometric panel study.

Despite the abundance of research on reducing carbon emissions, there is a significant gap in understanding the influence of macroeconomic factors on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from a spatial-structural perspective. This study aims to contribute to the literature by investigating the impact of macroeconomic factors on carbon dioxide emissions in six East African countries between 1989 and 2020. Using spatial econometric panel models, the study analyzed spatial dependence among the variables. The empirical findings indicate that gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and electricity consumption have positive direct and indirect effects on carbon emissions, while fuel prices and exports have negative direct effects, but positive spillover effects on neighboring countries. Imports have a positive impact on local economies, but negative spillover effects. Additionally, the urban population has no significant impact on the environment. These findings provide important policy implications for optimizing spatial growth patterns and achieving a low-carbon economy in East African countries.

The Impact of Monetary Policy in Achieving Exchange Rate Stability in the Iraqi Economy for The Period (1990 - 2023) an Econometric Study

The exchange rate is a monetary economic indicator that expresses a country's economic performance. The exchange rate is the basic foundation on which the economies of any country in the world are built, whether developed or developing. As a result, most governments seek to implement regulations that ensure the currency exchange rate remains stable. To avoid the radical changes that currencies will endure during another period. The exchange rate also plays a prominent role in monetary policy, due to its use as an intermediate target, or as a tool, or simply as an indicator of the competitiveness of countries through its impact on components of economic growth such as investment, the degree of economic openness, the inflation rate, the narrow money supply, and the volume of exports. And the volume of imports, and foreign exchange reserves. Therefore, the primary goal of this study was to try to identify the nature of the exchange rate. As a result, in the first section, we discussed the concept of monetary policy, its most important tools, its most important goals, the exchange rate, and Iraq’s experience in the field of exchange during the period (1990-2023). While the second section was devoted to measuring the impact of monetary policy in achieving stability in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar using the vector model. correcting the mistake. The study concluded with some recommendations to reduce exchange rate fluctuations.

The impact of globalization on the transport sector: The case of Tunisia

This paper aims to present the theoretical and practical aspects of the impact of globalization on the transport sector in Tunisia. Nowadays, globalization affects the transport sector, making it more dynamic. In this respect, most studies, both internationally and in Tunisia, have focused on maritime transport as it is the mode of transport that is most affected by the globalization phenomenon. Therefore, to expand on these observations, we carried out an econometric study in Tunisia covering the 1976–2016 period based on the error correction model. The findings confirm some of the previous observations and show that international trade, which represents globalization, has the greatest impact on national transport, both in the short and long runs. Therefore, this study suggests that if our country wants to promote the transport sector, it should meet the challenges of globalization through greater economic openness and an environment conducive to foreign direct investment.

An Econometric Study Using Panel Data Model of Factors Affecting Women's Economic Empowerment for Some Countries During the Period (2000-2023)

Objectives: The study aimed to use the analytical and standard method in analyzing the results of the study based on the analysis of factors affecting the economic empowerment of women in some countries during the period (2000-2023). Methods: To investigate the relationships between variables, the Panel Data model has Been Described to express the relationship between the female employment rate as a Dependent variable and women's empowerment indicators as independent variables. The study sample consisted of five countries, including Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Egypt, India and South Africa. The data were estimated using three models: the aggregate regression model, the static effects, and the random effects model. Results: The results showed that the fixed effects model is the most appropriate model for this study. Using the statistical program E-views12. Conclusion: The study found the following: It is expected to have an inverse relationship between the female unemployment rate and the female employment rate (FE) - as a dependent variable - and a positive relationship between the female labor force rate and FE. Contrary to expectations, it was found that there is a positive relationship between the female mortality rate and the dependent variable, in addition to the dependent variable not affected by the age dependency ratio of males.

Econometrics case study: Analysis of factors influencing the poverty rate in the Special Region of Yogyakarta Province

Background: This research is an econometrics case study aimed at addressing two research questions. Firstly, to provide an overview of the Special Region of Yogyakarta Province. Secondly, to identify the factors influencing the poverty rate in the province. The study utilizes the concepts of poverty, provincial minimum wage, Human Development Index (HDI), economic growth, and unemployment rate. Method: Methodologically, the province is chosen as the research location due to its poverty rate that requires attention and its distinctive social, economic, and geographical characteristics. The data used are secondary data, analyzed using multiple linear regression and normality tests. Findings: The findings of this study are as follows. Firstly, the Special Region of Yogyakarta Province is situated between 7°33' LS - 8°12' LS and 110°00' BT - 110°50' BT, with a land area of 3,185.8 km2. The province comprises 4 regencies and 1 municipality. Secondly, the factors influencing the poverty rate in the Special Region of Yogyakarta Province are the Human Development Index (HDI) and the unemployment rate. Conclusion: The conclusion is that the poverty rate in the Special Region of Yogyakarta Province is influenced by the Human Development Index (HDI) and the unemployment rate. The recommendations that can be given are to increase the HDI and reduce the unemployment rate through various government initiatives such as improving education, creating jobs, and encouraging economic activities. Novelty/Originality of this article: This study identifies factors that influence poverty levels using multiple linear regression. The results show that the Human Development Index (HDI) and poverty rates significantly influence poverty rates in this province.

The FDI and Many Economical Sectors Impact (Oil, Non-Oil) on Bahrain GDP: (An Econometrics Study for Period 1990-2021)

Host countries work to attract foreign direct investment by creating an appropriate investment environment that meets the specifications required by multinational companies across continents, through which they seek to compensate for the deficit in local savings, as well as achieving a tangible increase in annual growth rates of the gross domestic product, as When multinational companies with experience and technology operate in host countries, they must train the local workforce in order to contribute to raising economic growth rates. The Kingdom of Bahrain has attracted foreign direct investment as a complement to local investment by transferring expertise and modern technology necessary to train and develop local cadres technically and technologically., Consequently, job opportunities increase, unemployment rates decrease, and production increases for the Kingdom of Bahrain, as Bahrain has entered the competition to attract foreign direct investment worldwide. Not only that, most of the investment is directed to important economic sectors such as the manufacturing and extractive industries sectors, and even part of the foreign trade sector, and therefore Their study of their impact on the gross domestic product and the analysis of economic relations shows the strength of both the effects of investment and economic sectors side by side in developing the Bahraini economy to keep pace with global changes in the field of energy and economic competition, despite the high progress in the field of investment at the international level that preceded it in this context., Since the investment coming into the Kingdom of Bahrain during the study period is low when compared with countries in the world that attract foreign direct investment, the research aims to measure the direct impact of foreign direct investment and some economic sectors on the gross domestic product using the Eviwes 12 program, and important results were obtained from the estimation.

Exploring the Influence of the Digital Economy on Marine Pollution Mitigation: A Spatial Econometric Study of Coastal China

This work employs the spatial econometric model to explore the potential relation between the condition of marine ecosystems and the rapid development of the digital economy (DE), focusing on the coastal area of China. While the environmental benefits of the DE are well studied regarding the land and atmospheric pollution, its influence on marine pollution (MP) remains underexplored, and this work aims to fill in this gap. By analyzing panel data from 42 coastal cities in China using a spatial Durbin model to examine both the direct and indirect impacts of the DE on MP, the results highlight the positive role that the DE plays in reducing MP, benefitting not only the local marine environments but also those of neighboring areas through non-negligible spatial spillover effects. In addition, we find a non-linear, inverted U-shaped relationship between the DE and MP. These results are further confirmed through extensive robustness tests. This work enriches the field of environmental economics by reporting the first empirical study on the marine benefits of the DE and offers policy recommendations to optimize digital technologies for marine environmental preservation.

Investigating Economic and Climate Signals in Groundwater Data

Hydrologic, climatic, regulatory and economic factors interact in complex ways to influence groundwater conditions. These relationships can be difficult to measure and model but are important for water management and for considering viable futures for regional economies. This paper proposes a strategy for an improved understanding of how groundwater levels reflect signals of regulatory, economic and climate factors. Most existing econometric studies of groundwater use focus on large-scale irrigated agriculture and urbanized areas in first world nations, where groundwater extraction data is available. In much of the world, groundwater extraction data are not available for individual farms and other water users. The goal of this study is to explore the responsiveness of groundwater levels (a more widely available measure of groundwater conditions) to regulatory, economic and climate signals in rural areas, using a growing body of remotely sensed land cover data. Pooled Ordinary Least Squares econometric models examine the effects of regulatory, climatic and economic factors on groundwater levels in rural Arizona. Groundwater regulations, recharge projects, housing units and irrigated acreage have statistically significant relationships to groundwater levels in the study areas. This approach can be valuable for understanding factors that influence groundwater conditions and which may be useful in managing groundwater use in widespread areas where groundwater extraction data is unavailable.

The Impact of Export Volatility on Economic Growth in Algeria during 1992-2016: An Econometric Study

Objectives: The issue of export volatility in the economies of less developed countries (LDCs) is a significant topic of debate in economic literature. This paper aims to investigate the potential effect of export volatility on economic performance in Algeria. Methods: The study utilizes an econometric model to estimate the impact of export volatility on economic growth in Algeria for the period 1992-2016. Additionally, another regression model is used to analyze the effects of fluctuations in export prices and quantities on economic growth in Algeria. Results: The findings show that there is no significant relationship between the export instability index and real GDP. Conclusion: The study concludes that fluctuations in the prices and quantities of exports do not influence Algeria’s real GDP. Policymakers should reduce the dependency of the export sector on oil products and improve industrial performance in Algeria. Implementing price stabilization schemes and allocating more oil precautionary funds are also needed to mitigate any possible damaging effects of export volatility on Algeria’s economy in the future.

An Econometric Study of the Factors Affecting the Value of Agricultural Output in Iraq for the Period 2000-2022

An Econometric Study of the Factors Affecting the Value of Agricultural Output in Iraq for the Period 2000-2022

An Econometric Study of Egyptian Agricultural Trade Exchange with the BRICSB: Reality and Potential

An Econometric Study of Egyptian Agricultural Trade Exchange with the BRICSB: Reality and Potential

Impacts of intermittent water supply on household electricity demand: An econometric analysis for the Pune Metropolitan Region, India

Private household water and energy use are closely linked, especially in areas of intermittent water supply where more than one billion people live globally. However, the demand-side Water-Energy Nexus at the household level is often overlooked in empirical econometric studies. Based on a household survey (n = 1872) on water and energy in the Pune Metropolitan Region, India, we find statistical relationships between intermittent water supply and household electricity demand. More than 90 % of the surveyed households use water storage to cope with water supply intermittency, low-income households are particularly affected. Electricity consumption for water access accounts for 27 % of total household electricity consumption. Using a Discrete-Continuous Choice model, we identify significant impacts from factors such as household size and income, electricity price, and particularly the duration of water supply and the use of large water storage on household electricity demand. Our results indicate that households with 24-h water access consume 30 % less electricity than those with 12-h daily access. Extending municipal piped water supply by 1 h per day for all households could reduce total household electricity consumption by 3 %. Our findings suggest that water supply intermittency is a massive cause of unnecessary emissions in cities around the world that has thus far received hardly any attention. The significant amount of electricity used to access water reveals a hidden water affordability problem that can be more prevalent during droughts. Our analyses highlight the demand-side Water-Energy Nexus from an econometric perspective and emphasize the importance of breaking down silos in resource management.

Analysis of the relationship between economic development indicators and carbon dioxide emissions in light of the environmental Kuznets curve hypotheses: an econometric study of Algeria from 1980 to 2022

This study aimed to understand the relationship between Economic Development indicators and carbon dioxide emissions in Algeria during the period 1980-2022. It utilized annual data on CO2 emissions as a dependent variable, and GDP growth, population size, energy consumption, and foreign direct investment as independent variables. This was in order to test the hypotheses of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed for this analysis. The study ultimately found no long-term relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP, contradicting the hypotheses of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. However, there was a significant positive long-term relationship between CO2 emissions and both population size and energy consumption. Meanwhile, no significant long-term relationship was found between CO2 emissions and foreign direct investment in Algeria.

The role of tourism in driving economic growth: an empirical Study of the tunisian model, 1995-2020, using the ARDL methodology

This research paper has proven the impact of tourism sector income on the progression of economic growth, through an econometric study, based on the ARDL methodology, where we find a logical long-term relationship between these variables, during the period 1995-2021.

Effects of Budget Expenditures on Education and Youth Policy on Decreasing the Level of Delinquent Behavior of Adolescents

One of the national development goals relates to realizing human potential and educating a socially responsible person, which, among other things, requires strengthening the state's role in preventing crimes, primarily among adolescents. In this regard, there is a need to quantify the impact of social spending budgets on the level of juvenile delinquency. The article substantiates a methodological approach to assessing the effects of expenditures on secondary vocational education and youth policy on the number of minors convicted of various crimes. In the study, the authors evaluated regression based on a fixed-effects model with the standard errors Driscoll – Kraay. Econometric modelling was based on panel data on 83 subjects of the Russian Federation for the period 2010–2020. The statistical data of the official websites of the Federal State Statistics Service, the Federal Treasury and the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation served as the information base of the study. Based on the simulation results, conclusions were drawn about the positive impact of increasing budget expenditures on secondary vocational education and youth policy, as a share of GRP, on reducing juvenile delinquency. The influence of control variables (income level, divorce rate, urbanization, general crime, etc.) was also confirmed. For the first time, the results obtained on Russian data significantly complement the conclusions of foreign econometric studies on similar issues