Ecological Surprise Research Articles

Soil microbial community parameters affected by microplastics and other plastic residues.

The impact of plastics on terrestrial ecosystems is receiving increasing attention. Although of great importance to soil biogeochemical processes, how plastics influence soil microbes have yet to be systematically studied. The primary objectives of this study are to evaluate whether plastics lead to divergent responses of soil microbial community parameters, and explore the potential driving factors. We performed a meta-analysis of 710 paired observations from 48 published articles to quantify the impact of plastic on the diversity, biomass, and functionality of soil microbial communities. This study indicated that plastics accelerated soil organic carbon loss (effect size = -0.05, p = 0.004) and increased microbial functionality (effect size = 0.04, p = 0.003), but also reduced microbial biomass (effect size = -0.07, p < 0.001) and the stability of co-occurrence networks. Polyethylene significantly reduced microbial richness (effect size = -0.07, p < 0.001) while polypropylene significantly increased it (effect size = 0.17, p < 0.001). Degradable plastics always had an insignificant effect on the microbial community. The effect of the plastic amount on microbial functionality followed the "hormetic dose-response" model, the infection point was about 40 g/kg. Approximately 3564.78 μm was the size of the plastic at which the response of microbial functionality changed from positive to negative. Changes in soil pH, soil organic carbon, and total nitrogen were significantly positively correlated with soil microbial functionality, biomass, and richness (R2 = 0.04-0.73, p < 0.05). The changes in microbial diversity were decoupled from microbial community structure and functionality. We emphasize the negative impacts of plastics on soil microbial communities such as microbial abundance, essential to reducing the risk of ecological surprise in terrestrial ecosystems. Our comprehensive assessment of plastics on soil microbial community parameters deepens the understanding of environmental impacts and ecological risks from this emerging pollution.

Contrasting offspring responses to variation in salinity and temperature among populations of a coastal crab: A maladaptive ecological surprise?

Current understanding of species capacities to respond to climate change is limited by the amount of information available about intraspecific variation in the responses. Therefore, we quantified between- and within- population variation in larval performance (survival, development, and growth to metamorphosis) of the shore crabCarcinus maenasin response to key environmental drivers (temperature, salinity) in 2 populations from regions with contrasting salinities (32-33 PSU: Helgoland, North Sea; 16-20 PSU: Kerteminde, Baltic Sea). We also accounted for the effect(s) of salinity experienced during embryogenesis, which differs between populations. We found contrasting patterns between populations and embryonic salinity conditions. In the Helgoland population, we observed a strong thermal mitigation of low salinity stress (TMLS) for all performance indicators, when embryos were kept in seawater. The negative effects of low salinity on survival were mitigated at increased temperatures; only at high temperatures were larvae exposed to low salinity able to sustain high growth rates and reduced developmental time, thereby metamorphosing with comparable levels of carbon and nitrogen to those reared in seawater. By contrast, larvae from the Kerteminde population showed a detrimental effect of low salinity, consistent with a maladaptive response and a weak TMLS. Low salinity experienced during embryogenesis pre-empted the development of TMLS in both populations, and reduced survival for the Kerteminde population, which is exposed to low salinity. Our study emphasises the importance of evaluating species responses to variation in temperature and salinity across populations; the existence of maladaptive responses and the importance of the maternal habitat should not be underestimated.

Microplastics in terrestrial ecosystems: Moving beyond the state of the art to minimize the risk of ecological surprise.

Microplastic (plastic particles measuring <5mm) pollution is ubiquitous. Unlike in other well-studied ecosystems, for example, marine and freshwater environments, microplastics in terrestrial systems are relatively understudied. Their potential impacts on terrestrial environments, in particular the risk of causing ecological surprise, must be better understood and quantified. Ecological surprise occurs when ecosystem behavior deviates radically from expectations and generally has negative consequences for ecosystem services. The properties and behavior of microplastics within terrestrial environments may increase their likelihood of causing ecological surprises as they (a) are highly persistent global pollutants that will last for centuries, (b) can interact with the abiotic environment in a complex manner, (c) can impact terrestrial organisms directly or indirectly and (d) interact with other contaminants and can facilitate their transport. Here, we compiled findings of previous research on microplastics in terrestrial environments. We systematically focused on studies addressing different facets of microplastics related to their distribution, dispersion, impact on soil characteristics and functions, levels of biological organization of tested terrestrial biota (single species vs. assemblages), scale of experimental study and corresponding ecotoxicological effects. Our systematic assessment of previous microplastic research revealed that most studies have been conducted on single species under laboratory conditions with short-term exposures; few studies were conducted under more realistic long-term field conditions and/or with multi-species assemblages. Studies targeting multi-species assemblages primarily considered soil bacterial communities and showed that microplastics can alter essential nutrient cycling functions. More ecologically meaningful studies of terrestrial microplastics encompassing multi-species assemblages, critical ecological processes (e.g., biogeochemical cycles and pollination) and interactions with other anthropogenic stressors must be conducted. Addressing these knowledge gaps will provide a better understanding of microplastics as emerging global stressors and should lower the risk of ecological surprise in terrestrial ecosystems.

Multiple Driver Impacts on Rocky Intertidal Systems: The Need for an Integrated Approach

Most intertidal rocky systems are exposed to severe tidal, diurnal, and seasonal changes in environmental parameters. In addition, they show extreme vulnerability to anthropogenic impacts. Research on multiple drivers is therefore crucial to understand the complexity of their potential interactions. Here, we first give an overview of the natural environment and impacts of climate change on rocky shore intertidal systems, and then focus on the impacts of multiple drivers. We further provide a summary of existing multiple driver studies in the literature with the aim for a better understanding of multiple driver interactions. As multiple drivers can affect rocky shore intertidal systems at different spatial and temporal scales, and the outcome of their effects are still more of an “ecological surprise,” we recommend a more widespread assessment of the environmental and biological context. We propose a new, integrated approach based on existing literature: this complements previous frameworks but with an improved understanding of co-occurring multiple driver systems of the rocky intertidal, in order to find management solutions based on accurate and informed predictions in these times of global change.

Old Tools, New Ways of Using Them: Harnessing Expert Opinions to Plan for Surprise in Marine Socio-Ecological Systems

With globally accelerating rates of environmental disturbance, coastal marine ecosystems are increasingly prone to non-linear regime shifts that result in a loss of ecosystem function and services. A lack of early-detection methods, and an over reliance on limits-based approaches means that these tipping points manifest as surprises. Consequently, marine ecosystems are notoriously difficult to manage, and scientists, managers and policy makers are paralyzed in a spiral of ecosystem degradation. This paralysis is caused by the inherent need to quantify the risk and uncertainty that surrounds every decision. While progress towards forecasting tipping points is ongoing and important, an interim approach is desperately needed to enable scientists to make recommendations that are credible and defensible in the face of deep uncertainty. We discuss how current tools for developing risk assessments and scenario planning, coupled with expert opinions, can be adapted to bridge gaps in quantitative data, enabling scientists and managers to prepare for many plausible futures. We argue that these tools are currently underutilized in a marine cumulative effects context but offer a way to inform decisions in the interim while predictive models and early warning signals remain imperfect. This approach will require redefining the way we think about managing for ecological surprise to include actions that not only limit drivers of tipping points but increase socio-ecological resilience to yield satisfactory outcomes under multiple possible futures that are inherently uncertain.

After a Glacier Retreats, Plants Thrive Thanks to Phosphorus

Grasses, small flowers, and mosses colonize glacial till in the Peruvian Andes when researchers apply a phosphorus fertilizer, an ecological surprise with implications for carbon sequestration.

Quantifying ecological and social drivers of ecological surprise

Abstract A key challenge facing ecologists and ecosystem managers is understanding what drives unexpected shifts in ecosystems and limits the effectiveness of human interventions. Research that integrates and analyses data from natural and social systems can provide important insight for unravelling the complexity of these dynamics. It is, therefore, a critical step towards the development of evidence‐based, whole‐system management approaches. To examine our ability to influence ecosystems that are behaving in unexpected ways, we explore three prominent cases of “ecological surprise.” We captured the social‐ecological systems (SES) using key variables and interactions from Ostrom’s SES framework, which integrates broader ecosystem processes (e.g. climate, connectivity), management variables (e.g. quotas, restrictions, monitoring), resource use behaviours (e.g. harvesting) and the resource unit (e.g. trees, fish, clean water) being managed. Structural equation modelling revealed that management interventions often influenced resource use behaviours (e.g. rules and limits strongly affected harvest or pollution), but they did not have a significant effect on the abundance of the managed resource. Instead, most resource variability was related to ecological processes and feedbacks operating at broader spatial or temporal scales than management interventions, which locked the resource system into the degraded state. Synthesis and applications. Mismatch between the influence of management systems and ecosystem processes can limit the effectiveness of human interventions during periods of ecological surprise. Management strategies should shift from a conventional focus on removal or addition of a single resource towards solutions that influence the broader ecosystem. Operationalizing Ostrom’s framework to quantitatively analyse social‐ecological systems using structural equation models shows promise for testing solutions to navigate these events.

The Interactive Effect of Multiple Stressors on Crustacean Zooplankton Communities in Montane Lakes

AbstractNonnative fish introductions have altered thousands of naturally fishless montane lakes, resulting in cascading food web repercussions. Nitrogen deposition has been recognized as an anthropogenic contributor to acidification and eutrophication of freshwater ecosystems, which may affect the abundance and composition of planktonic communities. This study identified responses of zooplankton communities from two lakes (fish present versus absent) in Mount Rainier National Park to manipulations simulating an episodic disturbance of acidification and eutrophication via nitrogen addition in mesocosms. Zooplankton communities from lakes with different food web structure (i.e., fish present or absent) responded differently to the singular effects of acid and nitrogen addition. For instance, zooplankton biomass decreased in the acid treatment of the fishless lake experiment, but increased in response to acid in the fish‐present experiment. In contrast, the combination of acid and nitrogen often resulted in weak responses for both lake types, resulting in nonadditive effects, i.e., the net effect of the stressors was in the opposite direction than predicted, which is known as a reversal or “ecological surprise.” This experiment demonstrates the difficulty in predicting the interactive effects of multiple stressors on aquatic communities, which may pose significant challenges for habitat restoration through fish removal.

Ecological surprise: concept, synthesis, and social dimensions

AbstractAs the extent and intensity of human impacts on ecosystems increase and the capacity of ecosystems to absorb these impacts dwindles, unanticipated behavior in ecological systems—or surprises—is likely to become more common. The concept of ecological surprise is broadly applied but seldom explicitly developed in ecological literature, and ecologists can employ diverging language, frameworks, and interpretations of surprise. Here, we synthesize what ecological surprise has meant to ecologists studying these events and review the development and use of the concept in ecology. We define ecological surprise as a situation where human expectations or predictions of natural system behavior deviate from observed ecosystem behavior. This can occur when people (1) fail to anticipate change in ecosystems; (2) fail to influence ecosystem behavior as intended; or (3) discover something about an ecosystem that runs counter to accepted knowledge. We develop a conceptual model that captures the interactions between social and ecological processes that lead to these events and examine two types of drivers that contribute to surprise: underlying driving forces and proximate causes. Our definition of ecological surprise inherently acknowledges that, to be surprising, there must be human observers to the ecological occurrence who have expectations about ecosystem behavior. To explore this dimension, we draw on social science perspectives to understand the ways in which human expectations of ecosystems are influenced by social networks, heuristics, and mental models. We use a case study to demonstrate how our integrated conceptualization of ecological surprise provides a systematic way of examining these events. Our integration of these perspectives enables us to better synthesize social and ecological knowledge of these events, and encourages ecologists to critically reflect on how they, as scientists, formulate and reformulate expectations of ecosystem behavior.

Regional diversity reverses the negative impacts of an alien predator on local species-poor communities.

Species diversity is often an implicit source of biological insurance for communities against the impacts of novel perturbations, such as the introduction of an invasive species. High environmental heterogeneity (e.g., a mountainous gradient) is expected to beget greater regional species diversity and variation in functional traits related to environmental tolerances. Thus, heterogeneous metacommunities are expected to provide more tolerant colonists that buffer stressed local communities in the absence of dispersal limitation. We tested the hypothesis that importation of a regional zooplankton pool assembled from a diverse array of lakes and ponds lessens the impacts of a novel predator on local species-poor alpine communities by increasing response diversity (i.e., diversity of tolerances to environmental change) as mediated by variation in functional traits related to predator evasion. We also tested whether impacts varied with temperature, as warming may modify (e.g., dampen or amplify) invasion effects. An eight-week factorial experiment ([fishless vs. introduced Oncorhynchus mykiss (rainbow trout)]×[ambient temperature vs. heated]×[local vs. local+regional species pool]) was conducted using 32 1,000-L mesocosms. Associations between experimental treatments and species functional traits were tested by R-mode linked to Q-mode (RLQ) and fourth-corner analyses. Although the introduced predator suppressed local species richness and community biomass, colonization by several montane zooplankters reversed these negative effects, resulting in increased species diversity and production. Invasion resistance was unaffected by higher temperatures, which failed to elicit any significance impacts on the community. We discovered that the smaller body sizes of imported species drove functional overcompensation (i.e., increased production) in invaded communities. The observed ecological surprise showed how regionally sourced biodiversity from a highly heterogeneous landscape can offset, and even reverse, the local negative impacts of an invasive species. Further, prey body size was found to be a keyspecies trait mediating the ecological impacts of the aquatic invasive predator. Our study highlights the novel application of a functional approach to understanding the impacts of biological invasions, using species traits that pertain directly to potential responses to exotic species.

The effects of black-tailed prairie dogs on plant communities within a complex urban landscape: an ecological surprise?

Historically, prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.) have been considered essential keystone species of western United States grassland ecosystems because they provide unique services and increase vegetation community richness, evenness, and diversity. However, the effects of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) on lands adjacent to or surrounded by urban areas may not result in the same ecosystem benefits historically associated with their presence. An urban landscape presents prairie dogs with movement challenges unparalleled in natural landscapes, as well as suites of nonnative plant species that are more common in disturbed areas. This study examined a complex ecosystem where vegetation communities are being influenced by directional environmental change, and quantified the synergistic effects resulting from the protective management of a native keystone species. The data set for this analysis was comprised of 71 paired (occupied by prairie dogs vs. unoccupied) vegetation surveys and 156 additional unpaired surveys collected from around the city of Boulder, Colorado, USA for 14 yr. Linear mixed models were used to compare data from transects occupied and unoccupied by prairie dogs, as well as to evaluate the effect of prairie dog occupation duration. In the absence of prairie dogs, vegetation in this region exhibited declines in native grasses, no changes in introduced grasses, and increases in native and nonnative forbs and bare soil over the study interval. In the presence of prairie dogs, these observed directional changes were nearly all amplified at rates four to 10 times greater than when prairie dogs were absent. Areas in Boulder occupied by prairie dogs also had significantly lower richness, evenness, and diversity of plant species, compared to unoccupied areas. Analysis of plant functional groups revealed the significant reduction of perennial native grasses, as well as a significantly higher cover of introduced forbs in occupied areas. Prairie dogs amplified the effects of low-impact environmental directional changes, creating more novel vegetation communities than the environmental factors alone. Results from this research provide insight regarding the synergistic effects of a native keystone species within a complex human-impacted 21st century landscape.

Higher temperatures enhance the effects of invasive sportfish on mountain zooplankton communities

Summary1. Decades of introductions of exotic sportfish to mountain lakes around the world have impoverished them biologically, and this may be exacerbated by global warming. We assessed the current status of invasive salmonids and native zooplankton communities in 34 naturally fishless lakes along an elevational gradient, which served as an environmental proxy for the expected effects of climate change.2. Our main goal was to explore how climate‐related variables influence the effects of stocked salmonids on the total biomass, species richness and taxonomic composition of zooplankton. We predicted that warmer conditions would dampen the negative predatory effects of exotic brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) on zooplankton communities because more temperate lakes contain a greater diversity of potentially tolerant species.3. Instead, we discovered that the persistence of stocked brook trout in the warmer lakes significantly amplified total zooplankton biomass and species richness. In colder and deeper lakes, zooplankton were relatively unaffected by S. fontinalis, which however persisted better in alpine lakes than at lower elevations after stocking practices were halted over two decades ago. Warmer lake conditions and higher concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were significant primary drivers of zooplankton species turnover, both favouring greater species diversity.4. Our findings of an ecological surprise involving potential synergistic positive effects of climate warming and exotic trout on native zooplankton communities presents a conundrum for managers of certain national mountain parks. Present mandates to eradicate non‐native trout and return the mountain lakes to their naturally fishless state may conflict with efforts to conserve biodiversity under a rapidly changing climate.

Commentary: Ecological complexity at the forest–grassland transition revealed by lake sediment records

news and update ISSN 1948-6596 commentary Ecological complexity at the forest–grassland transition revealed by lake sediment records Understanding how ecological processes play out over time scales relevant to long-lived species such as trees, and through periods of significant climate change, remains a major hurdle in trans- lating climate-change projections into biological impacts. Over the past few decades, paleoecolo- gists have embraced the prospect of using sepa- rate lines of evidence of climate, vegetation, and disturbance from sediment records to assess bio- geographic responses to climate change. Well- known complexities in responses to climate change include positive feedbacks within ecosys- tems, lag times, and the possibility of multiple po- tential states. This requires paleoecologists to have a robust understanding of past climate, and thus they have been thrust into the field of paleo- climatology. As there are multiple approaches to reconstructing past climate, researchers are often faced with the task of reconciling their climatic reconstructions with a myriad of existing paleocli- mate studies. In a new paper (Shuman et al. 2009), a cli- mate reconstruction based on fluctuating lake lev- els found evidence of a severe drought concurrent with a non-intuitive vegetation response. Shuman’s group studied the paleoclimatic context for the development of the Big Woods, Minessota, a large patch of mesic-adapted forest trees that occurred at the forest–grassland transition at the time of pre-European settlement but is now largely converted to agriculture and suburbia. Earlier paleoecological studies had determined that open woodland and grassland began being replaced by Big Woods vegetation at ca. 1300 AD, concurrent with a decrease in fire and, assumed but never addressed explicitly, increased moisture that favored tree establishment. The new study, however, claims that lake levels, and thus regional moisture, were lower during the Big Woods devel- opment than at any other time during the past 1800 years. The authors also show, using age dis- tributions of trees, that a comparable drought during the 1930’s was not severe enough to pre- clude establishment of mesic tree species such as sugar maple. The “ecological surprise” from these findings is that the local-scale controls of the for- est–grassland transition may operate, at times, in the opposite direction from the regional moisture gradient that explains the broad-scale pattern of the forest-to-grassland transition. The mechanisms underlying the Big Woods establishment, if indeed it happened during drought, require rethinking. Shuman et al. (2009) invoke a previously published hypothesis (Umbanhowar 2004) that fire may have declined because of drought-caused fuel discontinuity, and thus increasing fire-free intervals permitting re- cruitment of Big Woods tree species. This hy- pothesis fits broadly with the assertion that over large expanses of the planet where productivity is marginally sufficient for forest, the observed vege- tation is largely determined by fire and herbivores (Bond & Keeley 2005). The primary role of distur- bance over climate in these areas leaves wiggle- room for complexities including processes that reverse the climate–vegetation relationship at small spatial scales. One of these complexities not discussed with respect to the Big Woods is the effect of fluctuating populations of grazers, such as bison. The influence of grazer populations on the forest–grassland transition may be as great or greater than other factors, and because pa- leoecologists rarely discuss grazing impacts, they represent an “elephant in the room” in the inter- pretation of these records (Craine & McLauchlan 2004). For example, increased grazing pressure during drought may have been required to reduce fuel continuity and fire extent. Of course, devel- oping sediment proxies of grazer populations, such as from spores of the dung-fungus Sporormiella, would further the discussion of these dynamics (e.g., Gill et al. 2009; see also the update by Koch in this issue). The search for concordance among paleocli- mate records is a difficult task because of uncer- tainties in sediment chronologies, in the climate © 2010 the authors; journal compilation © 2010 The International Biogeography Society — frontiers of biogeography 2.1, 2010

Managing for resilience

AbstractEarly efforts in wildlife management focused on reducing population variability and maximizing yields of selected species. Later, Aldo Leopold proposed the concept of habitat management as superior to population management, and more recently, ecosystem management, whereby ecological processes are conserved or mimicked, has come into favour. Managing for resilience builds upon these roots, and focuses on maintaining key processes and relationships in social‐ecological systems so that they are robust to a great variety of external or internal perturbations at a range of ecological and social scales. Managing for resilience focuses on system‐level characteristics and processes, and the endurance of system properties in the face of social or ecological surprise. Managing for resilience consists of actively maintaining a diversity of functions and homeostatic feedbacks, steering systems away from thresholds of potential concern, increasing the ability of the system to maintain structuring processes and feedbacks under a wide range of conditions, and increasing the capacity of a system to cope with change through learning and adaptation. The critical aspect of managing for resilience, and therefore ecosystem management, is undertaking adaptive management to reduce uncertainty and actively managing to avoid thresholds in situations where maintaining resilience is desired. Managing adaptively for resilience is the approach best suited for coping with external shocks and surprises given the non‐linear complex dynamics arising from linked social‐ecological systems.

“Here there be dragons”

There must be few expressions in the modern English language more disturbing than the recently coined “ecological surprise”. The phrase is becoming familiar among scientists who study global change, and refers to the potential for developments that could catch us off guard. Stephen Jackson of the University of Wyoming (Laramie, WY) and guest editor of this Special Issue of Frontiers, along with co-author Jack Williams at the University of Wisconsin (Madison, WI), address the topic in these pages, using equally unsettling terms, like “no-analog communities” and “the reshuffling of species” (p 475–482). From their background in paleoecology – the reconstruction of ecosystems of the past – they argue that our quickly changing climate may present us with completely new ecological scenarios. The review gave me some idea of what they meant, but like a timid horror-film fan who peeks through her fingers just as the violins reach their crescendo, I wanted to know the whole story. So I called Jackson to ask what, in particular, did he and Williams mean by their reference – in that subtitle, “Here there be dragons” – to the monsters that traditionally appear in uncharted areas of ancient cartographers' maps? Had I missed something in my compulsive reading of climate-change news? Do we also need to worry about new and possibly fire-breathing species cropping up? Jackson reassured me – sort of – on that point. Not necessarily completely new species, at least in the next century or so. Evolution doesn't move quite that fast. Instead, what should give us pause – specifically, a long-overdue pause in our greenhouse-gas-pumping, landscape-altering ways – is the specter of all but unpredictable interactions between new climate patterns and existing species, which could make human life more difficult and dangerous. “Basically, we're heading into new territory climatically, really, into uncharted waters”, he explained. “Certainly within the experience of western society, there haven't been climates like this, nor have there been, quite possibly, in the history of our species, or even in the history of the ecosystems of the world.” Add in invasive species and landscape-transformation and, according to Jackson, “It's like playing poker with 26 jokers instead of two”. “By the time the threat was recognized, it was too late to do anything about it. So now, resource managers are really scared about losing the characteristic Sonoran desert to a buffelgrass prairie”, said Jackson More broadly, Jackson worries about other potentially surprising impacts of a changing climate. “We're now in year nine of a very severe drought that appears to be different from other droughts we've known, for instance, in the 1890s and 1930s. We just don't have a plan, based on past experience.” Last year, wildfires raced across Wyoming grasslands and forests in the middle of April, an anomaly Jackson chalks up to a combination of drought and the earlier-than-usual advent of springtime's warmer temperatures, with moisture evaporating more quickly. “Our analysis indicates that we'll see more and more of that kind of thing manifesting itself as we go further and further off the map of our experience”, Jackson warned. Williams was quick to add that the phrase “ecological surprise” needn't be wholly negative, at least for some species. But, on closer questioning, the only immediate candidate he could think of was the bark beetle, which has recently and famously proliferated in western forests, due primarily to warming winters. As for our own species, which depends so heavily on the services healthy nature provides, we've been rather slow to grasp how quickly the natural order of things is changing. Jackson and Williams argue that we need to improve our forecasting methods immediately – if not sooner. And, of course, that's not all we need to do. “Our current models really aren't yet capable of predicting what we face in the future”, Jackson told me. “And I'm not sure how quickly we can get them up to the task. So, the way I see it is, if you care about natural resources, and the goods and services we get from ecosystems, the best thing to do is to minimize the damage and focus on prevention rather than cure. Because we simply don't know enough about what the disease is going to look like to provide the cures.”

Avoiding Ecological Surprise: Lessons From Long-Standing Communities

Increasingly ecologists have recognized the importance of sudden and unexpected changes in the natural environment—often called “surprises.” Organizational scholars have not developed a theory of how to avoid ecological surprise. This article suggests one way to develop such a theory. Using ecology, systems analysis, and a historical comparison of four communities, the article concludes that organizing and managing natural resources in part as community property can play a central role in avoiding surprises.

Avoiding Ecological Surprise: Lessons from Long-Standing Communities

Avoiding Ecological Surprise: Lessons from Long-Standing Communities