Ecological Province Research Articles

Differentiating Historical Open Forests and Current Closed Forests of the Coastal Plain, Southeastern USA

The southeastern United States was historically characterized by open forests featuring fire-adapted species before land-use change. We compared tree composition and densities of historical tree surveys (1802 to 1841) to contemporary tree surveys, with the application of a similarity metric, in the Coastal Plain ecological province of Mississippi, southeastern USA. We detected the boundary between historical pine and oak-pine open forests and differentiated historical and current forests. In the Coastal Plain, historical open forests converted from fire-tolerant longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) dominance, with pines comprising 88% of all trees, to loblolly (Pinus taeda) and slash (P. elliottii) pines within monocultures (45% of all trees). Wetland and successional tree species increased to 33% of all trees. Contemporary forests have greater tree densities, transitioning from closed woodlands (range of 168 to 268 trees ha−1) to closed forests (336 trees ha−1). In the ecotonal boundary of the northern Coastal Plain between historical pine and pine-oak woodlands, the pine component shifted over space from 88% to 34% of all trees due to a greater oak component. Fire-tolerant shortleaf pine and oak dominance converted to planted loblolly pine (52% of all trees), while successional tree species increased (20% of all trees). Historical tree densities represented woodlands (range of 144 to 204 trees ha−1) but developed into closed forests (400 trees ha−1). Historical Coastal Plain longleaf pine woodlands differed more from historical ecotonal oak-pine woodlands than contemporary forests differed from each other, demonstrating unique historical ecosystems and landscape-scale homogenization of ecosystems through forestation.

Determining Minnesota bee species' distributions and phenologies with the help of participatory science.

The Minnesota Bee Atlas project contributed new information about bee distributions, phenologies, and community structure by mobilizing participatory science volunteers to document bees statewide. Volunteers submitted iNaturalist (©2016 California Academy of Sciences) photograph observations, monitored nest-traps for tunnel-nesting bees, and conducted roadside observational bumble bee surveys. By pairing research scientists and participatory science volunteers, we overcame geographic and temporal challenges to document the presence, phenologies, and abundances of species. Minnesota Bee Atlas project observations included new state records for Megachile inimica, Megachile frugalis, Megachile sculpturalis, Osmia georgica, Stelis permaculata, and Bombus nevadensis, nesting phenology for 17 species, a new documentation of bivoltinism for Megachile relativa in Minnesota, and over 500 observations of the endangered species Bombus affinis. We also expanded known ranges for 16 bee species compared with specimens available from the University of Minnesota (UMN) Insect Collection. Surveys with standardized effort across the state found ecological province associations for six tunnel-nesting species and lower bumble bee abundance in the Prairie Parkland ecological province than the Laurentian Mixed Forest or Eastern Broadleaf Forest ecological provinces, indicating potential benefit of a focus on bumble bee habitat management in the Prairie Parkland. Landcover analysis found associations for four tunnel-nesting species, as well as a possible association of B. affinis with developed areas. These data can inform management decisions affecting pollinator conservation and recovery of endangered species. By engaging over 2,500 project volunteers and other iNaturalist users, we also promoted conservation action for pollinators through our educational programs and interactions.

Temporal change in abundance of potential nesting cavities for wood ducks (Aix sponsa) in Northern Minnesota, United States

Wood duck females often nest in tree cavities located in large-diameter deciduous trees. Temporal changes in forest age and composition during recent decades may have influenced the abundance of stems with suitable nesting cavities in the forested portion of Northern MN, United States. Thus, we ascertained whether temporal changes in the abundance of such stems occurred in this area during six Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) evaluation cycles (i.e., 1977 to 2015–2019). We used FIA data and independently estimated proportions of stems with suitable cavities in different tree-species, health-status, and diameter classes to estimate change in the abundance of such stems at three spatial scales. These spatial scales increased in areal extent from a study area to three ecological subsections to the Laurentian Mixed Forest ecological province. We used a Bayesian analytical approach to accommodate changes in FIA protocols among cycles. Both the abundance of stems with suitable cavities and an attribute associated with cavity occurrence changed during the analysis period, but findings were not entirely consistent among spatial scales. The estimated abundance of both suitable stems overall and those of late-successional tree species generally increased at all scales during the analysis period. Since 1990, increases in the abundance of health-impacted stems that were suitable for nesting occurred at all spatial scales. Our estimated densities of suitable stems during the 2005–2009 (1.20 [85% CrI: 1.04–1.39] suitable stems / ha) and 2015–2019 cycles (1.41 [85% CrI: 1.21–1.63] suitable stems / ha) were substantially greater than the <0.25 and 0.25–0.49 suitable stems / ha another study predicted would occur in Northern Minnesota during 2008 and 2018, respectively. Our results can inform forest management decisions and research directions for follow-up studies of nesting wood ducks.

Effects of terrestrial transport corridors and associated landscape context on invasion by forest plants

The construction, use, and maintenance of terrestrial transport corridors [roads and railroads (TTCs)] facilitate the spread of invasive plants, but the distances at which plants typically spread away from TTCs, and how that process is mediated by landscape context, is not well understood. We compiled data on the number of invasive plant species per ~ 672 m2 plot (= invasive richness) from 44,000 + forest inventory plots in the eastern USA. Using a generalized linear model framework, we investigated how invasive richness is influenced by distance from the nearest TTC, surrounding land use type, and ecological province. Invasive richness in forests decreased as distance from the nearest TTC increased. Directly adjacent to TTCs, there were an estimated 1.4 ± 0.01 SE invasive plant species per plot compared to 0.8 ± 0.01 and 0.2 ± 0.01 species at 1 and 3 km, respectively, away from the nearest TTC. Invasive richness was highest on plots associated with a combination of agriculture/development (2.1 ± 0.03 species per plot) and in the Midwest Broadleaf Forest province (2.1 ± 0.06). Our macroscale analysis also demonstrated that rates of decay in invasive richness away from TTCs were mediated by the types of land use and ecological provinces within which plots were located. The influences of TTCs and associated activities (e.g., construction, travel) on invasive plant richness were widespread across forests of the eastern USA, but the relative importance of TTCs for facilitating spread appears to be highly context dependent.

Does white-tailed deer density affect tree stocking in forests of the Eastern United States?

BackgroundWhite-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) have increased during the past century in the USA. Greater deer densities may reduce tree regeneration, leading to forests that are understocked, where growing space is not filled completely by trees. Despite deer pressure, a major transition in eastern forests has resulted in increased tree densities.MethodsTo reconcile conflicting trends, we applied generalized linear mixed models to compare deer densities during 1982 and then 1996 to tree stocking after about 30 years and 15 years of potential reductions of small trees by deer, for the entire eastern US and 11 ecological provinces. We also compiled deer browse preferences and compared preferred browse with trends in tree species composition from historical (1620–1900) and current tree surveys.ResultsThe forested area of the eastern US, including a prairie ecological province, was equally well-stocked (52%) and understocked (48%) during 2011–2017 tree surveys. For 1982 deer densities, 38% of area had deer densities > 5.8 deer/km2 and for 1996, 66% of area had deer densities > 5.8 deer/km2. Deer densities and tree stocking were not related significantly for the entire eastern US. Deer may reduce tree stocking in the Laurentian Mixed Forest; however, this province had both lower deer densities and greater tree stocking than other provinces. Furthermore, major tree species trends did not match tree browse preferences.ConclusionsRather than too few trees, too many trees is an ecological problem where historical open oak and pine forests had herbaceous understories, and currently, trees have captured growing space. We attribute other drivers than deer to explain this transition.

The extension of the Porter hypothesis: Can the role of environmental regulation on economic development be affected by other dimensional regulations?

China's ecological civilization construction is committed to promoting ecological construction and regional development from multiple dimensions, and some scholars have proposed that the role of environmental regulation in the Porter hypothesis may be affected by other regulations. Therefore, this study proposes to expand the Porter Hypothesis from a single environmental regulation to multi-dimensional regulations. We propose the interaction mechanism of different dimensional regulations—economic, social, and environmental—of the ecological provinces in China. Through empirical analysis using provincial panel data for 1999–2016 in China, we made the following observations: First, multi-dimensional regulations of China's ecological province construction have a significant positive impact on regional development, which shows that China's comprehensive construction from multiple dimensions is generally successful. Second, environmental regulation is more likely to play a role through the channel of multi-dimensional regulations, which supports that other dimensional regulations have a significant effect in the Porter hypothesis. Third, environmental regulation may increase costs and have potential inhibitory effects on economic development. It may be an effective way to reduce the negative impact of environmental regulation through matching with other reasonable dimensional regulations. In summary, expanding the Porter hypothesis from single environmental regulation to multi-dimensional regulations is applicable and valuable in China's ecological province construction.

Recalling open old growth forests in the Southeastern Mixed Forest province of the United States

ABSTRACTHistorical forests in the Southeastern Mixed Forest province of the United States have been less researched than other regions using historical tree surveys. We used 81,000 tree records from surveys during the 1800s to quantify composition of this ecological province. Upland oaks and pines comprised about 75% of all trees, with relatively equal composition. Oak composition may have comprised ≥ 45% to the northern and eastern sides of the province. Hickories were about 10% of composition and a few species were present at 1% to 2% composition. Currently, pine has increased to 49% composition; loblolly pine was 46% of all trees. Upland oaks decreased to 8% composition. Paralleling other historically oak- or pine-dominated regions, fire-intolerant species increased to 40% of composition, particularly early-successional sweetgum. Historical oak-pine forests mostly have converted to loblolly pine plantations and broadleaf forests in this region. A large extent of the eastern United States historically was dominated by oak or pine forests, which likely were open old growth forests due to a frequent, low-to-moderate severity fire regime that reduced tree densities and infrequently disturbed overstory trees. Open old growth forests should be recognized as distinct ecosystems with unique characteristics, ecological functioning, and associated management practices.

The Study on Supply-Side Structural Reform of Hainan’s Agricultural Products

Accelerating economic transformation and upgrading based on supply-side structural reform is significant for Hainan to become a national tropical modern agricultural base. Hainan is an ecological province and its leading industry is service industry dominated by tourism. Therefore, Hainan’s industry structure is comparatively simple. One of the emphases of supply-side structural reform is to strengthen agriculture and optimize agriculture structure by brand cultivation, channel innovation and industry integration. To make tropical agriculture become Hainan’s competitive industry by enhance tropical efficient agriculture.

Landscape correlates of forest plant invasions: A high‐resolution analysis across the eastern United States

AbstractAimInvasive species occurrence is often related to the anthropogenic context of a given area. Quantifying the effects of roads is of particular interest as roads are a major vector for invasion. Our objective was to further quantify the effects of roads on forest plant invasion through a macroscale, high‐resolution investigation to assist effective invasion control and mitigation.LocationEastern United States.MethodsUsing invasive plant data from 23,039 forest inventory plots in 13 ecological provinces, we employed logistic regression to relate the odds of invasion to distance from a road, with adjustments for broadscale differences attributable to ecological provinces, and local scale differences in productivity, forest fragmentation and land use.ResultsThe overall proportion (P) of invaded plots was 0.58 (0.65 for plots within 50 m of a road), and the highest odds (P/1 − P) of invasion were found in relatively more productive, fragmented forest in landscapes with more than 10% agriculture or developed land cover. Wald chi‐square statistics indicated the best predictor of the odds of invasion was ecological province, followed by land use, productivity, forest fragmentation and distance from a road. Depending on the province, the adjusted odds of invasion decreased by up to 23% (typically 4%–10%) per 100 m distance from a road. The adjusted probability of invasion approached zero in only three provinces, for the least productive, least fragmented forest that was at least 2,000 m from a road in landscapes with less than 10% agricultural or developed land cover.Main conclusionsIn the eastern United States, the existence of a nearby road is less important than the landscape context associated with the road. A purely road‐mediated effect has little practical meaning because anthropogenic activities and roads are pervasive and confounded.

Phytoplankton species composition of four ecological provinces in Yellow Sea, China

The ecological province based on phytoplankton species composition is important to understanding the interplay between environmental parameters and phytoplankton species composition. The aim of this study was to establish phytoplankton species composition ecological pattern thus elucidate the relationship between environmental factors and the phytoplankton species composition in the ecological provinces. Phytoplankton samples were collected from 31 stations in Yellow Sea (121.00°–125.00°E, 32.00°–39.22°N) in November 2014. The samples were enumerated and identified with the Utermohl method under an optical inverted microscope-AE2000 with magnifications of 200 × or 400 ×. In the present study, a total of 141 taxa belonging to 60 genera of 4 phyla of phytoplankton were identified, among them 101 species of 45 genera were Bacillariophyta, 36 species of 11 genera were Dinophyta, 3 species of 3 genera were Chrysophyta and 1 species of 1 genera was Chlorophyta. The study area was divided into 4 ecological provinces according to an unsupervised cluster algorithm applied to the phytoplankton biomass. A T-S (Temperature-Salinity) scatter diagram depicted with data of water temperature and salinity defined by environmental provinces matched well with the ecological provinces. The results of Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) indicated that the phytoplankton species composition was mainly correlated with temperature, salinity and silicate concentration in the studied area. A method of establishing ecological provinces is useful to further understanding the environmental effects on the marine phytoplankton species composition and the consequent marine biogeochemistry.

A three decade assessment of climate‐associated changes in forest composition across the north‐eastern USA

Summary Climate‐associated changes in forest composition have been widely reported, particularly where changes in abiotic conditions have resulted in high mortality of sensitive species and have disproportionately favoured certain species better adapted to these newer conditions. In the north‐eastern USA and south‐eastern Canada, few studies have examined climate‐related influences associated with forest composition, and none have considered broad‐scale changes over a long temporal (>25 years) period. We used US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data from 1983 to 2014 across four north‐eastern states (Maine, New Hampshire, New York and Vermont) to assess temporal and spatial changes in the occurrence and abundance of American beech Fagus grandifolia Ehrh, sugar maple Acer saccharum L., red maple Acer rubrum L. and birch Betula spp. saplings. We also tested the effects of biotic and abiotic factors on the distribution of the four studied deciduous species over the entire period examined. Occurrence and abundance of American beech have increased substantially over the past three decades, whereas the occurrence and abundance of three other deciduous species have decreased in all ecological provinces of the north‐eastern USA, except the Midwest Broadleaf ecological province. Consequently, a clear shift in species composition is currently underway in the beech‐maple‐birch (BMB) forests of the north‐eastern USA, with uncertain consequences for future ecosystem structure and function. In the studied region and over the entire period examined, the distribution of increased occurrence and abundance of beech relative to the three other deciduous species were associated with higher temperature and precipitation as well as higher conspecific basal area and dead tree basal area. Synthesis and applications. The change from beech‐maple‐birch forests to more beech‐dominated forests with beech encroachment to new forest areas across the north‐eastern USA may continue if higher intensity harvesting and disturbances (i.e. large‐scale canopy openings) do not occur. This would be a significant management concern as beech is associated with a widespread bark disease, is commercially less desirable, and can limit natural regeneration from other species. Our results emphasize the need for management strategies such as higher intensity harvesting methods, vegetation control and limiting browsing pressure to reduce beech dominance.

How Do Urban Forests Compare? Tree Diversity in Urban and Periurban Forests of the Southeastern US

There is a need to understand how anthropogenic influences affect urban and periurban forest diversity at the regional scale. This study aims to compare urban and periurban tree composition along a geographic gradient, and test hypotheses about species composition and ecological homogeneity. We paired urban forest (UF) data from eight cities across the southeastern US with periurban forest (PF) data from the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis program. We found that tree diversity, as well as both observed and estimated species richness values were greater in UF versus PF. Community size structure analysis also indicated a greater proportion of large trees and greater numbers of non-native, invasive, and unclassified tree species in the UF versus the PF, regardless of location. Both forest type and ecological province had a significant effect on community species composition, with forests closer together in space being more similar to each other than those more distant. While land use change and management has been associated with ecological homogenization in human dominated landscapes, we found that species composition was more dissimilar along latitudinal lines than compared to between forest types, refuting this hypothesis, at least in terms of tree diversity.

Oaks were the historical foundation genus of the east-central United States

Foundation tree species are dominant and define ecosystems. Because of the historical importance of oaks (Quercus) in east-central United States, it was unlikely that oak associates, such as pines (Pinus), hickories (Carya) and chestnut (Castanea), rose to this status. We used 46 historical tree studies or databases (ca. 1620–1900) covering 28 states, 1.7 million trees, and 50% of the area of the eastern United States to examine importance of oaks compared to pines, hickories, and chestnuts. Oak was the most abundant genus, ranging from 40% to 70% of total tree composition at the ecological province scale and generally increasing in dominance from east to west across this area. Pines, hickories, and chestnuts were co-dominant (ratio of oak composition to other genera of <2) in no more than five of 70 ecological subsections and two of 20 ecological sections in east-central United States, and thus by definition, were not foundational. Although other genera may be called foundational because of localized abundance or perceptions resulting from inherited viewpoints, they decline from consideration when compared to overwhelming oak abundance across this spatial extent. The open structure and high-light conditions of oak ecosystems uniquely supported species-rich understories. Loss of oak as a foundation genus has occurred with loss of open forest ecosystems at landscape scales.

A quantitative method to assess the ecological indicator system's effectiveness: a case study of the Ecological Province Construction Indicators of China

The ecological indicator system (EIS) is widely used. It is vital to develop a scientific and rational EIS for practical application. Assessment of an EIS's effectiveness is important to understand the gaps between practical indicators and indicators that are considered theoretically ideal. In this paper we develop a conceptual method to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of a practical EIS by comparing it with the ideal EIS that is considered perfect by using three assessment indices: linkage, coverage and representation degrees. Linkage degree reveals the relevance of individual indicators to the ideal system. Coverage degree shows the integrity of the practical indicator system compared with the ideal system. Representation degree is the ultimate goal of the quantitative assessment and can detect the gap and overlap between the practical indicator system and the ideal one. Case study on the Ecological Province Construction Indicators (EPCI) proved that our conceptual method is useful to assess the effectiveness of a practical EIS. Compared with an ideal EIS, the EPCI has a high linkage and coverage degree but biased representation. Although the practical EIS covers most of the objectives detailed in the Fujian eco-province construction documents, many social development indicators are overlooked, including ecological culture and green consumption. Using the quantitative method will improve the practical application of an EIS by detecting its redundancy and weakness.

Impact of land use/land cover changes on ecosystem services in the Nenjiang River Basin, Northeast China

The Nenjiang River Basin is an important foodstuff base and eco-environmental fragile area in Northeast China. With the rapid rise in human population, human-induced changes in land use/land cover form an important component of regional environment and ecosystem service change. At the local and regional level, the ecosystem service concept can act as a decision support tool for a stakeholder to reach sustainable land use management. However, the prevailing ecosystem service evaluation would produce a biggish warp when it is applied to concrete area. So, it is essential to evaluate ecosystem service change according to the local actuality. According to 1:250,000 land use/land cover maps of China and the adjusted equivalent value per unit area of ecosystem services in the Nenjiang River Basin, we evaluated the ecosystem service change of the river basin from 1980 to 2005. The forest and wetland, which are mainly located in the upstream mountainous area of the Nenjiang River Basin, were the two valuable land cover types, accounting for more than three quarters of the total ecosystem service value of the river basin. As for individual ecosystem service, besides the food production, all of the ecosystem service values declined from 1980 to 2005. The total decline of 2.43 billion USD was mainly due to the cultivation of grassland (14.34 % of the area in 1980) and wetland (4.62 % of the area in 1980) in the downstream plain. Due to the increase in population and the concomitant requirement of grain, the inconsistency between decision-making at the macro-level, and the objective of agricultural production at the micro-level, cultivated land was increased through zealous reclamation of grassland, marginal woodland, and even fallow land. Tremendous land use/land cover changes had caused great damages to the ecological environment such as land degradation and ecosystem service recession. So, the policies of the Grain for Green and Construction of Ecological Province projects should be well-implemented to optimize land use/land cover.

基于网络分析的生态建设评估指标体系定量选取研究——以福建省为例

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 基于网络分析的生态建设评估指标体系定量选取——以福建省为例 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201304070621 作者: 作者单位: 中国科学院城市环境研究所,中国科学院城市环境研究所,福建省海洋研究所 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(41201598); 国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAC21B03); 福建省软科学项目(2011R0093) Quantitative selection research on the evaluation indicators system for the ecological construction based on network analysis:a case study of Fujian Author: Affiliation: Institute of Urban Environment， Chinese Academy of Sciences,Institute of Urban Environment， Chinese Academy of Sciences,Institute of Urban Environment， Chinese Academy of Sciences Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:科学有效的指标体系是开展区域生态建设评估以及规划、管理的重要技术手段。然而目前在生态指标体系构建中仍缺乏对指标内涵的系统研究,同时指标的选取过程不够透明,掺杂诸多主观臆断,损害了生态指标体系构建的科学性和有效性。针对福建省生态建设实践,将网络分析与量化指标选择过程相结合,(1)根据福建省生态建设规划和目标,建立主题导向的生态省建设评估网状指标体系;(2)从因果联系、生态过程和管理需求三方面分析各个备选指标之间的相互联系,形成基于主题导向的生态指标网络;(3)根据生态指标应用的科学性和实用性标准,基于网络分析原理,建立生态建设评估指标选择标准矩阵和备选指标矩阵;(4)构建面向经济社会成本和生态完整性的指标选取模型,定量化选取符合福建省实际发展特征的生态建设评估操作指标体系。将有助于深入理解生态建设评估指标体系的内涵,提高指标体系构建的科学性和系统性,提升生态指标体系在实际生态建设评估、规划和管理应用中的效用。 Abstract:Eco-province, eco-city and eco-county construction programs started in China in 2000, and since then, there have been more than 15 provinces including Fujian, Hainan, Zhejiang, Jiangsu etc. completed eco-province construction planning. Scientific and effective indicator system is an important tool to carry out the assessment, planning and management of regional ecological construction. However, some problems still exist in the construction of ecological indicator system, such as lack of systematic study on the essence of the indicator and subjective process of indicator selection, which severely impair the science and validity of the ecological indicator system. An objective and scientific process of selection supplies the way for fast ecological construction planning and its adjustment in the future. This paper combines the network analysis and quantitative selection of indicators to build an ecological indicator system based on the previous practice in Fujian Province. We (1)analyzed the main problems existed in the ecological construction, implementation and development process, summarized the previous assessment indicators in the current ecological construction, studied the targets of Fujian eco-province construction practice, and established theme-oriented eco-province construction assessment network indicator system which contained 4 hierarchies and 55 concrete indicators representing experts and stakeholders' opinions; (2)identified the relationships among the indicators at the same or different hierarchies through the analysis of the cause-effect relationship, ecological processes and management requirements, and transformed them into an ecological hierarchy network (EHN) framework and assigned the weights of all the indicators based on the hierarchical structure and complex linkages of the EHN framework; (3)established indicator selection standard matrix which included measurable, vulnerable, predictable, typical, controllable, integrative, responsive, and stable criteria and built alternative indicator matrix of assessment system for ecological construction according to the scientific and efficient application standards of ecological indicator; (4)built a multi-objective selection model concerning socio-economic costs and ecological integrity and quantitatively select the ecological indicators system that is suitable for Fujian eco-province construction practice by genetic algorithm method. According to the selection results, at least 44 concrete indicators should be selected in the ecological construction assessment system of Fujian Province, 11 indicators were dropped out from the 55 alternative concrete indicators. The results showed that our research would be helpful for understanding the essence of the assessment indicator system of ecological province construction, improving the scientific and systematic level of indicator system construction, and enhancing the practicability of ecological indicator system for ecological construction assessment, planning and management. For the reason that it is hard to simulate the whole system by a purely mathematical model due to the limited understanding of complex ecosystem and social ecological system, it is suggested that the theme-oriented framework and network framework should be coupled with subjective and quantitative indicator selections for ecological construction practices of other provinces in China. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Climate change and stream temperature projections in the Columbia River basin: habitat implications of spatial variation in hydrologic drivers

Abstract. Water temperature is a primary physical factor regulating the persistence and distribution of aquatic taxa. Considering projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation in the coming century, accurate assessment of suitable thermal habitats in freshwater systems is critical for predicting aquatic species' responses to changes in climate and for guiding adaptation strategies. We use a hydrologic model coupled with a stream temperature model and downscaled general circulation model outputs to explore the spatially and temporally varying changes in stream temperature for the late 21st century at the subbasin and ecological province scale for the Columbia River basin (CRB). On average, stream temperatures are projected to increase 3.5 °C for the spring, 5.2 °C for the summer, 2.7 °C for the fall, and 1.6 °C for the winter. While results indicate changes in stream temperature are correlated with changes in air temperature, our results also capture the important, and often ignored, influence of hydrological processes on changes in stream temperature. Decreases in future snowcover will result in increased thermal sensitivity within regions that were previously buffered by the cooling effect of flow originating as snowmelt. Other hydrological components, such as precipitation, surface runoff, lateral soil water flow, and groundwater inflow, are negatively correlated to increases in stream temperature depending on the ecological province and season. At the ecological province scale, the largest increase in annual stream temperature was within the Mountain Snake ecological province, which is characterized by migratory coldwater fish species. Stream temperature changes varied seasonally with the largest projected stream temperature increases occurring during the spring and summer for all ecological provinces. Our results indicate that stream temperatures are driven by local processes and ultimately require a physically explicit modeling approach to accurately characterize the habitat regulating the distribution and diversity of aquatic taxa.

Promoting regional sustainability by eco-province construction in China: A critical assessment

The regional level has been recognized as a good scale for implementing actions towards sustainable development (SD). An important pathway to improve regional sustainability is to locally carry out long-term ecological planning. In order to reduce environmental impacts from fast economic growth, several eastern provinces of China began Ecological Province Construction (EPC) at the end of 1990s. This paper presented a case for analyzing the progress of EPC in China via both qualitative and quantitative methods. We studied Shandong Eco-province Construction (SEPC) and evaluated its outcomes with its pre-set indicators in 2003–2010. A further evaluation with eco-efficiency and de-linking indices was conducted. The results indicated the pre-set indicators could not effectively reflect of the ecological province construction. It was recommended to introduce an evaluated framework combined with eco-efficiency and de-linking indices to indicate ecological planning at the regional scale.

Applicability of Predictive Models of Drought-Induced Tree Mortality between the Midwest and Northeast United States

Regression models developed in the upper Midwest (United States) to predict drought-induced tree mortality from measures of drought (Palmer Drought Severity Index) were tested in the northeastern United States and found inadequate. The most likely cause of this result is that long drought events were rare in the Northeast during the period when inventory data were available. Therefore, new predictive models of drought mortality for the Northeast were built using USDA Forest Service inventory data and national climate data from 1969 to 2007. The Standardized Precipitation Index was better correlated with tree mortality in the Northeast than the Palmer Drought Severity Index, and new models were estimated. The reliability of the northeast models varied considerably by drought-sensitivity class, with the model for drought-intolerant species being particularly suspect. I argue that the Midwest models may nevertheless have some value in the Northeast because my tests were unable to cover the range of drought conditions under which the models were developed, there is no obvious reason why the same species should respond differently in a very similar ecological province, and some northeast models are very weak.

基于变权-物元分析模型的老工业基地区域生态安全动态预警研究—以吉林省为例

生态安全预警是生态安全研究的重要内容，对维护区域生态安全具有重要的意义。老工业基地区域生态安全预警研究具有一定的特殊性和典型性，选取吉林省为研究区，基于压力、状态、响应（P-S-R）和生态、环境、经济、社会（E-E-E-S）框架模型构建生态安全预警指标体系，运用变权-物元分析模型对1991—2011年吉林省区域生态安全的预警等级进行了测度，并结合灰色系统GM（1，1）预测模型对2015年、2020年区域生态安全态势进行预测预警。研究结果表明：（1）1991--2011年，吉林省生态安全总体水平呈逐步上升的趋势，区域生态安全预警等级从“巨警”上升为“轻警”，指示灯由“红色预警”逐步变为“蓝色预警”；（2）2015年，吉林省的生态安全预警等级属于“轻警”，指示灯为“蓝色预警”，到2020年，吉林省的生态安全预警等级属于“无警”，指示灯为“绿色预警”，但具有向“轻警”变化的态势；（3）制约吉林省生态安全水平提升的主要因素包括单位面积耕地化肥负荷量、城镇化、人均水资源量、GDP增长率、第一产业占GDP比重等，这些因素应是今后生态环境保护调控的重点，本研究为吉林省经济一生态．社会可持续发展提供参考。