Ecological Priority Research Articles

Multi-scenario simulation and optimization of habitat quality under karst desertification management

IntroductionInvestigation of the evolutionary trend of habitat quality in karst and rocky desertification zones is crucial for enhancing ecological security and conservation.MethodsAnalysis of land use statistics from the years 2000, 2010, and 2020, changes in habitat quality (HQ) and land use (LULC) between 2000 and 2020 were analyzed using Huize County in Yunnan Province as an example. The InVEST and FLUS models were applied to simulate LULC under different scenarios in 2030 and 2040 and assess changes in spatial gradients of habitat quality at each timepoint and factors influencing them.ResultsThe findings indicated that (1) The predominant land use types are grassland and woodland, experiencing the most significant growth in urbanized areas, the main sources of which are paddy fields and high-cover grassland. (2) The habitat quality between 2000 and 2020 was average and displayed a consistent decline. The spatial distribution pattern indicates low HQ in urban areas, high HQ in the outskirts, low HQ in the south-west, and high HQ in the north-east. In all four scenarios, habitat quality predominantly decreases in urban areas and regions with a dense concentration of built-up land. (3) Habitat quality spatial distribution is primarily affected by the type of land use, with NDVI being the secondary determinant.DiscussionThe ecological environment of Huize County must be restored and safeguarded with a focus on ecological priorities and harmonious development scenarios. This study provides methodological lessons for ecorestoration and policymakers in areas of karstic rocky desertification.

Spatiotemporal Change Analysis and Multi-Scenario Modeling of Ecosystem Service Values: A Case Study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, China

Ecosystem service value (ESV) assessment is a crucial indicator of regional ecological quality and ecological management effectiveness. Ecosystem services (ES) provide the environmental foundation for human existence and social advancement. However, the future course of land use change (LUC) in urban agglomerations and its implications for human society remains uncertain, which presents a challenge to maintaining a balance between ecological service functions and regional socioeconomic growth. This paper took the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration as an example and used the future land use simulation (FLUS) model to project the spatial distribution of land use under the natural development scenario (NDS), food security scenario (FSS), and ecological priority scenario (EPS) of BTH in 2030, 2040, and 2050. Next, the changes to ESV under various scenarios were investigated through the equivalent coefficient method. In order to make more targeted recommendations for regional development, the study also used hotspot analyses to explore the impacts of LUCs on ESV. The results showed that: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the LUC in the BTH was dramatic and mainly focused on the interconversions among the three land use categories of cropland, grassland, and built-up land. The total ESV demonstrated the tendency to decrease from CNY 386,859.89 × 106 in 2000 to CNY 371,968.78 × 106 in 2020. (2) Compared with 2020, the ESV in BTH in 2050 under the FSS loses 16,568.78 × 106 CNY, followed by the NDS (CNY 10,960.84 × 106), while the ESV under the EPS increases by CNY 9373.74 × 106. The results of the scenario simulation showed that there was significant variability in ESV under different political orientations. (3) Hotspot analysis indicated that the ESV changes were clustered in the northeastern part and the eastern coastal region of the BTH. On this basis, we identified Chengde, Beijing, Tianjin, and Zhangjiakou as the key cities to focus on and made meaningful suggestions for their future regional environmental protection and sustainable development. This research can serve as a guide in creating sustainable BTH development policies and offer fresh perspectives for investigating how land use patterns affect the ecological environment’s regional quality under various policy trajectories.

Urban growth simulation guided by ecosystem service trade-offs in Wuhan metropolitan area: Methods and implications for spatial planning

The effective integration of ecosystem services (ESs) and urban growth simulation is crucial for spatial planning decisions that support sustainable and high-quality development. Interactions (i.e., trade-offs, synergies, and irrelevance) generally exist among ESs, however, few studies have been done on the methodology for simulating urban growth that optimizes the synergistic effect of ESs. In this study, the Wuhan metropolitan area was taken as the research area. Four key ESs in 2000, 2010, and 2020: water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), habitat quality (HQ), and soil retention (SR) were evaluated by using the InVEST model. Then the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method was applied to optimally allocate ESs trade-offs and identify ecological priority protection areas (EPPAs). Finally, the PLUS model was used to simulate urban growth scenarios under different levels of ESs protection constraints and propose spatial planning strategies. The results revealed the following. (1) From 2000 to 2020, the three ESs (i.e., WY, CS, and HQ) exhibited the spatial distribution pattern with high in the east and low in the west, and higher in the woodland than in built-up areas, except SR, which remained at a weak level throughout the region. (2) During the 20 years, SR and the other three ESs, HQ and CS showed a synergistic relationship; WY exhibited a very weak trade-off with HQ; and WY and CS changed from a very weak trade-off to a weak synergy. (3) Seven ecosystem service patterns (ESPs) were generated, and ESP 5 was compared as the ideal option. The weights of SR, WY, CS, and HQ in this pattern were 0.063, 0.187, 0.313, and 0.437, respectively. (4) By 2030, the built-up areas will exhibit edge expansion and interconnection development trends, with the high-constraint ecological protection scenario as the most compact mode, and the spatial structure of “two districts, one axis, four cities as one” is consistent with the development tendency. Our findings can help to enrich the method of urban growth management oriented by ecological protection, and provide a scientific basis for ecological environment restoration and land use spatial planning practices.

The Synergistic Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Tourism Economy and Urban Green Development Efficiency in the Yellow River Basin

In the context of the “ecological priority and green development” strategy, examining the co-evolution between the tourism economy and the efficiency of urban green development can offer both theoretical insights and quantitative foundations to support ecological preservation and high-quality development in China’s Yellow River Basin. This research utilized approaches such as the Haken model and the geographically and temporally weighted regression model to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns, synergistic characteristics, and driving factors of the tourism economy and urban green development efficiency within the Yellow River Basin. The findings reveal the following: (1) Regional disparities in the tourism economy are progressively widening, whereas the efficiency of green development tends to decline. Furthermore, both the tourism economy and urban green development efficiency display “high-high clustering” and “low-low clustering” spatially. (2) The synergistic evolution of the two systems displays spatial characteristics of transitioning from polarization to trickle-down effects. (3) Natural factors such as topography and vegetation coverage, as well as human economic factors like industrial structure and the degree of openness, positively promote the synergy. However, elements such as temperature, precipitation, economic development level, and openness to innovation have a certain inhibitory effect on the synergistic evolution.

Spatio-temporal variations and multi-scenario simulation of landscape ecological risk in the drylands of the Yellow River Basin.

Over the past decades, the drylands of the Yellow River Basin (YRBD) have undergone profound changes in landscape patterns and ecological dynamics, significantly impacting regional sustainable development. To assess the spatio-temporal variations of ecological risk in the YRBD and provide guidance for sustainable regional development, we constructed a coupled Land Use-Landscape Ecological Risk Model-Geographical Detector-PLUS framework for the assessment, analysis, and simulation of dryland landscape ecological risk (LER). The main findings are as follows: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the area of built-up land, forest, grassland, and water in the YRBD increased, while the area of unused land and cropland decreased. (2) LER exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, dominated by Sub-low and Low risks. High risk areas were primarily located in the western Inner Mongolia Plateau, whereas Low risk areas were prevalent in the Loess Plateau, with an overall decline in risk levels over the 20years. (3) Water resources, ecological status, and human activities are the main driving factors affecting LER, with the impact of human activities becoming increasingly significant over the past 20years. (4) Under three development scenarios in 2030, the LER is projected to further decrease, although the impact of these scenarios varies across different research sub-regions. Notably, the Ecological Priority Scenario emerges as more effective in mitigating regional LER. (5) Developing precise land use policies tailored to regional characteristics, continuously implementing ecological restoration projects, strengthening water resource management, and enhancing monitoring capabilities are effective ways to reduce LER in the YRBD. This study systematically quantified the impact of different development scenarios on LER in the YRBD, revealing its spatio-temporal characteristics, and emphasized the importance of planning guidance, ecological restoration, and risk monitoring to align regional development with ecological protection. The findings provide scientific evidence for ecological protection and sustainable development in the YRBD and other drylands, offering valuable insights for global dryland ecological risk management.

Applying the driver-pressure-state-impact-response model to ecological restoration: A case study of comprehensive zoning and benefit assessment in Zhejiang Province, China

Ecosystem degradation is a global problem that poses a significant threat to the sustainable development of human societies, particularly in developing countries, such as China. In response, China has implemented a series of ecological restoration (ER) policies over recent years. However, significant regional developmental disparities, pronounced spatial heterogeneity of ecological issues, and substantial historical debt for ER in China present considerable obstacles and financial burdens to the effective implementation of ER strategies. Delineating ER zones and assessing the ER benefits are essential for developing effective ER strategies and implementing ER projects. In this study, we constructed a comprehensive framework for ER utilizing the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model, quantified the urbanization levels, ecological state, and restoration costs in Zhejiang Province to delineate ER zones, integrated the patch-generating land use simulation model with the ecosystem service value assessment method to quantify the benefits of ER, and ultimately developed tailored ER strategies. The results showed that: (1) The pattern of urbanization levels was characterized by high levels in the northeast and low levels in the southwest, which constrated with the ecological state. The areas of high restoration costs were located in the northeastern and southeastern regions, and the areas of low restoration costs were situated in the southwestern region. (2) The rate of construction land expansion is significantly curtailed under the ER scenario compared to the natural development scenario in 2035, while forest areas have seen effective protection and an increase from the levels of 2020. (3) The ER policy is projected to generate ecological benefits totaling CNY 8.23 billion by 2035, substantially reducing the rate of ecosystem degradation. (4) Zhejiang Province is divided into five zones at the county scale: ecological autonomous protection zone, ecological core protection zone, ecological priority restoration zone, ecological control zone, and moderate development zone. Strategies have been devised based on the forecasted benefits of ER, offering valuable insights into ecological management. These findings aim to enhance the understanding of ER and support the development and implementation of regional ecological policies.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land-Use/Land-Cover Changes and Carbon Storage Prediction Coupled with the SD-PLUS-InVEST Model: A Case Study of the Tuojiang River Basin, China

Land-use and land-cover changes (LUCCs) significantly impact carbon sequestration by modifying the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems. This study utilized GIS and remote sensing techniques to forecast future LUCC patterns and their influence on regional carbon budgets, which is essential for sustainable development. We devised a coupled system dynamics (SD) model integrated with a patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model to simulate LUCCs under diverse future scenarios using multisource environmental data. Additionally, the InVEST model was employed to quantify carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. By establishing three scenarios—ecological priority (EP), highly urbanized (HU), and coordinated development (CD)—this study’s aim was to predict the LUCC patterns and carbon storage distribution of the Tuojiang River Basin (TRB), China, up to 2035. The results showed that (1) from 2000 to 2020, significant LUCCs occurred in the TRB, primarily involving the conversion of cultivated land into construction areas and forestland; (2) LUCCs had a substantial impact on carbon storage in the TRB, with the EP scenario demonstrating the highest carbon storage by 2035 due to extensive forest expansion, while the HU scenario indicated a decline in carbon storage associated with rapid urbanization; and (3) the mountainous regions of the TRB, dominated by forestland, consistently exhibited higher carbon storage, whereas the Chengdu Plain region in the upper basin displayed the lowest. In conclusion, we recommend prioritizing the CD scenario in future development strategies to balance economic growth with ecological protection while simultaneously enhancing carbon storage. Our findings offer valuable insights to shape future LUCC policies in the Tuojiang River Basin, underscoring the adaptability of the coupled model approach to a wide range of geographic scales and contexts.

Eliciting diverse perspectives to prioritize community actions for biodiversity conservation.

Communities have a strong role in protecting biodiversity. In addition to participation in restoration, a range of actions in the public or private sphere may support biodiversity. Despite this, there is a lack of clarity about what actions should be prioritized for behavior change campaigns. We developed and applied a method to prioritize community actions for biodiversity conservation that incorporates an expert-based assessment of impact and a community-informed measure of the likelihood of uptake. In stage 1, experts (n=143) completed a survey that quantified the relative impact of actions based on best-worst scaling of perceived impact. In stage 2, surveyed community members (n=3200) ranked the likelihood of adopting actions based on the ease or difficulty of performing each action, and the opportunity for change based on the proportion of respondents not yet engaging in each behavior. Experts gave the following actions the highest ranking for impact: voting for the environment (first), participating in restoration in ecological priority areas (second), and purchasing and protecting remnant bushland (third). When considering the disciplinary background and institutional background of experts, voting and participating in restoration activities remained in the upper ranked options. However, there was some divergence between these groups. For example, reducing beef consumption was ranked third by university-based experts but ranked 28th by experts based in state government. Overall, community members ranked the following behaviors as most likely to be adopted: following quarantine laws (first), reducing plastic use (second), and managing pets (third). Top likelihood ranking of actions was minimally affected by community characteristics (nature relatedness, gender, location). Integrating these findings, the action ranked most favorably for impact, likelihood, and opportunity was participating in restoration. Choosing actions for behavior change campaigns requires consideration of the entire social-ecological system-from social factors that enable or constrain adoption to the ecological impact of actions across relevant social and ecological contexts.

On the tail of two species: The changing place of the peregrine falcon in society

Abstract Wildlife conservation can become contentious when human interests are impinged. For peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus) in the United Kingdom, their iconic status as a protected species is contested by pigeon racers and falconers restrained by strict wildlife policies. However, even entrenched conservation policies can shift, sparking controversy. This paper seeks to understand the conditions leading to recent conservation policy shifts and conflicts. Through archival research and discourse analysis of falconry and pigeon racers' rhetoric, I review the development of 150 years of UK wildlife legislation and politics surrounding peregrines, situating present‐day conflict within long‐standing tensions between competing interests. In doing so, I demonstrate how contrasting ideologies of the raptors existed simultaneously between groups. Each vied for dominance and influenced policies over time, with the ideologies of ‘winners’ suppressing that of the ‘losers’ to become the norm. This historical approach highlights the key role global events like war played in overpowering the dominance of protective ideologies towards peregrines domestically, allowing peregrine culls and capture to become socially permissible. Conversely, post‐War environmental movements originating in the United States suppressed falconry's extractive relationships with peregrines in the United Kingdom, entrenching ecological priorities as a norm still conventional today. I argue that wildlife protection is contested because cultural extinction of falconry and pigeon racing were imminent, brought on by policymakers' focus on preventing the biological extinction of peregrines. However, recent policy shifts highlight the acceptance of anthropocentric interests within conservation practices. Policy implications: Animals can play multiple roles in society, but the public may not be accustomed to anthropocentric interests overtly displayed within contemporary conservation practices. Policy needs to be more sensitive towards accommodating or communicating human interests, but to also reflect on the social and ecological implications of their own ideologies towards conservation. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Carbon Reserves in Shaanxi Province Under Different Scenarios in the Future

To understand the land use development trends in Shaanxi Province under different scenarios and effectively assess the spatiotemporal evolution of terrestrial ecological carbon stocks in Shaanxi Province under land use changes, the study used Markov-FLUS and InVEST models to analyze the impact of land use changes in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2020. The impact of carbon storage changes and the spatiotemporal changes in land use structure, carbon storage, and carbon density under three different scenarios were simulated and assessed in Shaanxi Province in 2025 and 2030. The results showed： ① The ROC values of various categories in the coupled Markov-FLUS model were all above 0.7, showing high accuracy and excellent classification performance. The model had a good ability to explain the land use driving factors in the study area, with high accuracy and excellent classification performance. ② From 2000 to 2020, the cultivated land in Shaanxi Province increased significantly. Forest land increased significantly, and the increase in forest land area with high carbon sequestration efficiency caused the carbon storage in Shaanxi Province to increase from 1 546.95 Tg to 1 616.25 Tg. The changes in various regions in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2020 were different, among which the carbon storage in Yan'an was significantly increased by 18.89 Tg, whereas the carbon storage in Yulin significantly decreased by 3.29 Tg in 20 years. ③ Altitude, precipitation, and temperature became the main factors affecting the spatiotemporal changes in carbon storage in Shaanxi Province from 2020 to 2030. In three of the years between 2025 and 2030, under different scenarios, the carbon stocks under the ecological priority scenario were 1 632.27 Tg and 1 647.43 Tg, respectively. The carbon storage and its growth rate were significantly higher than in the natural development scenario and the cultivated land protection scenario. ④ The proportion of carbon storage increase areas under the ecological priority scenario was high. In the cultivated land protection scenario, the proportion of reduction areas was lower than that of the natural development scenario, and the distribution of carbon storage was the most balanced. At the same time, the southern and northern areas of the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi need to focus on the protection of the ecological environment in future development. The research results can, to a certain extent, provide reference for promoting the construction of ecological Shaanxi and formulating carbon neutral strategic planning.

Identification of Harbin Ecological Function Degradation Areas Based on Ecological Importance Assessment and Ecological Sensitivity

This study is based on the National Spatial Ecological Protection and Restoration Plan, using logical ecological evaluation indicators to determine the extent of ecological function degradation areas in Harbin City. In the Heilongjiang Province, Harbin faces severe ecological environment degradation, characterized by reduced area, deteriorated water quality, loss of biodiversity, and water resource competition. Identifying degraded ecological regions can effectively address these environmental issues. A multi-level indicator system was constructed to evaluate and identify ecological important and sensitive areas across the city, followed by integrating these results to delineate various levels and types of ecological protection and restoration zones in Harbin. Results indicate that these zones include ecological priority protection areas such as marshes surrounding the Harbin section of the Songhua River, southern aquatic wetlands, and scattered forest conservation areas. Key ecological restoration areas are found in the eastern urban core of Harbin, as well as in Bayan County, Bin County’s northern region, Wuchang City’s northwest region, and Yilan County. General ecological restoration areas are primarily distributed in Songbei District, Shuangcheng District, Mulan County, southeastern Bin County, Shangzhi City, southeastern Wuchang City, and some surrounding counties along the Songhua River. Priority ecological protection areas consist mainly of unused land, cultivated land, and forests, while key and general ecological restoration areas are predominantly composed of cultivated land and forests respectively.

Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Changes in Cropland Occupation and Supplementation Area in the Pearl River Delta and Their Impacts on Carbon Storage

In recent years, the “dual carbon” issue has become a major focus of the international community. Changes in land use driven by anthropogenic activities have a profound impact on ecosystem structure and carbon cycling. This study quantitatively assesses the spatiotemporal changes in cropland occupation and supplementation in the Pearl River Delta from 2000 to 2020 using the InVEST model, analyzing the spatial clustering of carbon storage changes caused by variations in cropland area. The PLUS model was employed to simulate land-use patterns and the spatial distribution of carbon storage in four future development scenarios. The results indicate the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the net change rate of cropland area in the Pearl River Delta was −0.81%, with a decrease of 16.49 km2 in cropland area, primarily converted to built-up land and forest land. (2) Carbon storage in the Pearl River Delta exhibited a pattern of lower values in the center and higher values in the periphery. The terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage in the Pearl River Delta was 534.62 × 106 t in 2000, 518.60 × 106 t in 2010, and 512.57 × 106 t in 2020, showing an overall decreasing trend. The conversion of cropland and forest land was the main reason for the decline in total regional carbon storage. (3) The area of carbon sequestration lost due to cropland occupation was significantly greater than the area of carbon loss compensated by new cropland, indicating an imbalance in the quality of cropland occupation and supplementation as a crucial factor contributing to regional carbon loss. (4) Under the ecological priority scenario, the expansion of built-up land and the reduction in ecological land such as cropland and forest land were effectively controlled, resulting in the minimal loss of carbon storage. The soil organic carbon pool of cropland is the most active carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems and has a significant impact on carbon storage. Clarifying the relationship between “cropland protection measures–land use changes–ecosystem carbon storage” will improve cropland protection policies, provide references for regional carbon sequestration enhancement, and support sustainable socio-economic development.

Multi–Scenario Prediction of Land Cover Changes and Habitat Quality Based on the FLUS–InVEST Model in Beijing

As urbanization accelerates worldwide, understanding the impact of urban expansion on habitat quality has become increasingly critical in environmental science research. This study examines the impact of urban expansion on habitat quality in Beijing, forecasting land cover changes and ecological effects by 2030. Using CA–Markov and FLUS models, the research analyzes habitat quality from 2000 to 2030 through the InVEST model, revealing a significant urban land increase of 1316.47 km2 and a consequent habitat quality decline. Predictions for 2030 indicate varying habitat quality outcomes across three scenarios: ecological priority (0.375), natural growth (0.373), and urban development (0.359). We observed that the natural growth scenario forecasts a further decline in habitat quality, primarily due to increased low–value habitat regions. Conversely, the ecological priority scenario projects a notable improvement in habitat quality. To mitigate habitat degradation in Beijing and enhance regional habitat quality and ecological conditions, it is recommended to control urban land cover expansion, adopt effective ecological conservation policies, and systematically carry out national spatial restructuring and ecological restoration. This research provides vital decision–making support for urban planning and ecological conservation, emphasizing the need for comprehensive land cover and ecological strategies in urban development. Additionally, our findings and methodologies are applicable to other rapidly urbanizing cities worldwide. This demonstrates the broader applicability and relevance of our research, providing a framework for sustainable urban planning in diverse global contexts.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Based on the Markov–FLUS Model in Ezhou City, China

Changes in land use patterns, types, and intensities significantly impact ecosystem services. This study follows the time series logic from history to the expected future to investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use changes in Ezhou and their potential impacts on the ecosystem services value (ESV). The results show that the Markov–FLUS model has strong applicability in predicting the spatial pattern of land use, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.9433 and a FoM value of 0.1080. Between 2000 and 2020, construction land expanded continuously, while water area remained relatively stable, and other land types experienced varying degrees of contraction. Notably, the area of construction land expanded significantly compared to 2000, and it expanded by 70.99% in 2020. Moreover, the watershed area expanded by 9.30% from 2000 to 2010, but there was very little change in the following 10 years. Under the three scenarios, significant differences in land use changes were observed in Ezhou City, driven by human activities, particularly the strong expansion of construction land. In the inertial development scenario, construction land expanded to 313.39 km2 by 2030, representing a 38.30% increase from 2020. Conversely, under the farmland protection scenario, construction land increased to 237.66 km2, a 4.89% rise from 2020. However, in the ecological priority development scenario, the construction land area expanded to 253.59 km2, a 10.13% increase from 2020. Compared to 2020, the ESV losses in the inertia development and farmland protection scenarios were USD 4497.71 and USD 1072.23, respectively, by 2030. Conversely, the ESV under the ecological protection scenario increased by USD 2749.09, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing ecological protection in Ezhou City’s development. This study may provide new clues for the formulation of regional strategies for sustainable land use and ecosystem restoration.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Scenario Simulation of Regional Green Spaces in a Rapidly Urbanizing Type I Large City: A Case Study of Changzhou, China

The rapid urbanization observed in major Chinese cities has resulted in the degradation of both urban and rural environments. In response to this challenge, the concept of regional green spaces has emerged as an innovative approach to coordinate and manage green space resources across urban and rural areas. This study focuses on conducting a comprehensive analysis of the evolution, driving factors, and future scenarios of regional green spaces in Changzhou, which serves as a representative Type I large city in China. To accomplish this analysis, Landsat satellite images from 1992, 2002, 2012, and 2022 were utilized. Various methodologies, including landscape pattern indices for quantitative evaluation, the CLUE-S model, logistic regression for qualitative evaluation, and the Markov–FLUS model, were employed. The findings indicate a continuous decline in the area of regional green spaces in Changzhou, decreasing from 248.23 km2 in 1992 to 204.46 km2 in 2022. Landscape pattern analysis reveals an increase in fragmentation, complexity, irregularity, and human interference within these green spaces. Logistic regression analysis identifies key driving factors influencing regional green spaces, including elevation, urban population, and proximity to water bodies and transportation. The scenario simulations provide valuable insights into potential future trends of regional green spaces. According to the economic priority scenario, a modest increase in regional green spaces is anticipated, while the ecological priority scenario indicates substantial growth. Conversely, the inertial development scenario predicts a continued decline in regional green spaces. This research emphasizes the significance of achieving a harmonious coexistence between economic progress and environmental preservation. It emphasizes the necessity of optimizing the arrangement of green areas within a region while fostering public engagement in the conservation of these spaces. The findings contribute to the protection and sustainable development of the urban environment in the Yangtze River Delta region.

Assessing land-use changes and carbon storage: a case study of the Jialing River Basin, China

Land-use change is the main driver of carbon storage change in terrestrial ecosystems. Currently, domestic and international studies mainly focus on the impact of carbon storage changes on climate, while studies on the impact of land-use changes on carbon storage in complex terrestrial ecosystems are few. The Jialing River Basin (JRB), with a total area of ~ 160,000 km2, diverse topography, and elevation differences exceeding 5 km, is an ideal case for understanding the complex interactions between land-use change and carbon storage dynamics. Taking the JRB as our study area, we analyzed land-use changes from 2000 to 2020. Subsequently, we simulated land-use patterns for business-as-usual (BAU), cropland protection (CP), and ecological priority (EP) scenarios in 2035 using the PLUS model. Additionally, we assessed carbon storage using the InVEST model. This approach helps us to accurately understand the carbon change processes in regional complex terrestrial ecosystems and to formulate scientifically informed land-use policies. The results revealed the following: (1) Cropland was the most dominant land-use type (LUT) in the region, and it was the only LUT experiencing net reduction, with 92.22% of newly designated construction land originating from cropland. (2) In the JRB, total carbon storage steadily decreased after 2005, with significant spatial heterogeneity. This pattern was marked by higher carbon storage levels in the north and lower levels in the south, with a distinct demarcation line. The conversion of cropland to construction land is the main factor driving the reduction in carbon storage. (3) Compared with the BAU and EP scenarios, the CP scenario demonstrated a smaller reduction in cropland area, a smaller addition to construction land area, and a lower depletion in the JRB total carbon storage from 2020 to 2035. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of the PLUS and InVEST models in analyzing complex ecosystems and offers data support for quantitatively assessing regional ecosystem services. Strict adherence to the cropland replenishment task mandated by the Chinese government is crucial to increase cropland areas in the JRB and consequently enhance the carbon sequestration capacity of its ecosystem. Such efforts are vital for ensuring the food and ecological security of the JRB, particularly in the pursuit of the “dual-carbon” objective.

Responses of zebra and quagga mussels to copper and tribytiltin exposure: Bioconcentration, metabolic and cardiac biomarkers

One of the top ecological priorities is to find sensitive indicators for pollution monitoring. This study focuses on the bioconcentration and responses (condition index, survival, oxygen consumption, heart rates, and oxidative stress and neurotoxic effect biomarkers) of mussels from the Volga River basin, Dreissena polymorpha and Dreissena bugensis, to long-term exposure to toxic chemicals such as tributyltin (TBT, 25 and 100 ng/L) and copper (Cu, 100 and 1000 μg/L). We found that TBT was present in the tissues of zebra and quagga mussels in comparable amounts, whereas the bioconcentration factor of Cu varied depending on its concentration in water. Differences in responses between the two species were revealed. When exposed to high Cu concentrations or a Cu-TBT mixture, quagga mussels had a lower survival rate and a longer heart rate recovery time than zebra mussels. TBT treatment caused neurotoxicity (decreased acetylcholinesterase activity) and oxidative stress (increased levels of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances) in both species. TBT and Cu levels in mussel tissues correlated positively with the condition index, but correlated with the level of acetylcholinesterase in the mussel gills. The principal component analysis revealed three main components: the first consists of linear combinations of 14 variables reflecting TBT water pollution, TBT and Cu levels in mussel tissues, and biochemical indicators; the second includes Cu water concentration, cardiac tolerance, and mussel size; and the third combines weight, metabolic rate, and heart rates. Quagga mussels are less tolerable to contaminants than zebra mussels, so they may be used as a sensitive indicator.

Spatio-temporal evolution analysis of land use change and landscape ecological risks in rapidly urbanizing areas based on Multi-Situation simulation − a case study of Chengdu Plain

Land use change in emerging nations raises landscape ecological risks (LERS), hastens the deterioration of urban and rural ecosystem services, endangers human well-being, and undermines sustainable development in the face of rapidly increasing urbanization. Here, using the Chengdu Plain as the study area and long time series data from 2000 to 2020, the optimal time span is selected for multi-context spatio-temporal simulation. The land use map of Chengdu Plain in 2025 under the four scenarios of “Natural Development” (ND), “Economic Priority Development” (END), “Ecological Priority Development” (ELD), and “Sustainable Development” (SD) was simulated, and the multi-indicator landscape ecological risk index (ERI) was generated to compare and analyze the differences between land use and landscape ecological risk under different policy preferences. Subsequently, the land use data from 2025 to 2040 were simulated, the landscape ecological risk pattern was mapped, and the spatial and temporal evolution analysis from 2010 to 2040 was conducted to explore the spatial evolution law of land use change and landscape ecological risk. Based on the results, the high ecological risk aggregation areas are prone to appear in END scenarios, whereas medium-ecological risk aggregation areas are more likely to appear in ELD scenarios, and the government should focus its policy on arable land protection. Moreover, the land use pattern of cultivated land surrounding construction land and forested land surrounding cultivated land, caused by the irrational single-core development pattern and the policy of returning farmland to forests, has exacerbated the landscape ecological risk of the Chengdu Plain, constituting a unique landscape ecological risk pattern. It’s also important to remember that the Chengdu Plain’s less economically developed regions need to focus on the high-quality development of ecological land use. We adopted high-precision simulation methods to simulate the complex land use changes in rapidly urbanizing areas and explored the spatial evolution law and causes of landscape ecological risk evolution in the context of land use changes, with the intention of offering a solid theoretical foundation for such areas’ future planning in developing nations.

Prioritization of Ecological Conservation and Restoration Areas through Ecological Networks: A Case Study of Nanchang City, China

Rapid urbanization has led to ecosystem fragmentation, conversion, and degradation, posing great threats to natural habitat and biodiversity. The utilization of ecological networks has gained importance in ecological restoration planning to mitigate the negative impacts of urbanization on ecosystems. This study focused on Nanchang City, China, as a case study area to examine the application of integrated ecological networks in 2000, 2010 and 2020. This study analyzed the dynamic characteristics and spatial differences in landscape connectivity, providing evidence-based support for ecological conservation and restoration. The results indicate the following: (1) a decrease in the number of ecological sources and corridors, especially general sources and corridors, along with a decreasing trend in their importance; (2) an increase in ecological barrier points and breakpoints over time, especially in the southeastern region of the study area; and (3) the identification of ecological conservation priority areas, ecological improvement priority areas, and ecological restoration points based on connectivity and dynamic analysis. Multiple priority actions were proposed, which remarkably improved network connectivity and strengthened biodiversity conservation. Our research provides a valuable reference for identifying ecological priorities and developing ecological protection and ecological restoration actions in highly urbanized areas.

Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Prediction of Ecosystem Carbon Storage in Jiangxi Province Based on PLUS-InVEST Model

Land-use changes are an important factor affecting the change in carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Exploring the relationship between land-use changes and carbon storage provides reliable data support for optimizing regional land-use structure and maintaining regional carbon balance. Taking Jiangxi Province as an example, we first analyzed the land-use changes; then simulated the land-use pattern under three scenarios (i.e., natural development, ecological priority, and economic development scenarios) in 2030 based on the PLUS model; and finally estimated the carbon storage change in the past (i.e., 1990-2020) and future periods (i.e., three scenarios in 2030) using the InVEST model, analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics, and proposed the corresponding suggestions. The results showed:① The carbon storage in Jiangxi Province showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2020, with a total reduction of 4.58×107 t. The increase in the water bodies and construction land and the decrease in cultivated land, woodland, grassland, and unused land was the major cause. ② The carbon storage under natural development, ecological priority, and economic development scenarios in Jiangxi Province in 2030 were 2.20×109, 2.24×109 and 2.19×109 t, respectively. ③ The carbon storage under the three scenarios showed similar spatial characteristics, wherein the high carbon storage was distributed in northern, northwest, and western regions, and the low carbon storage was distributed near the central region. These results can provide data support for future land spatial planning and improving the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in Jiangxi Province.