Ecological Niche Models Predictions Research Articles

Range shift and loss of genetic diversity under climate change in the red-backed fairywren (Malurus melanocephalus), an Australian endemic bird species

AbstractClimatic variability is the most important force influencing the distribution dynamics of common and widespread species, with significant effects on their current biogeographical patterns. In this study, phylogeography was integrated with ecological niche modelling to understand the range dynamics of an Australian bird species, the red-backed fairywren (Malurus melanocephalus), under various climate change scenarios. Specifically, an ecological niche modelling approach with Bayesian-based phylogeographical analysis was used to develop robust inferences regarding the demographic history of the species. The predictions of the model were mostly consistent with the present distribution of the species. However, under the Last Interglacial bioclimatic conditions, the model predicted a significantly narrower distribution than today, indicating the existence of allopatric refugia. Predictions for the Last Glacial Maximum indicated that the species had a wider distribution, extending northwards. Additionally, predictions for the future (2050 and 2070) indicated that the species will probably have a narrower distribution than at present, which will be shifted eastwards. The extended Bayesian skyline plot analysis, which provides a robust analysis of fluctuations in the effective population size throughout the evolutionary history of a species, produced results highly consistent with the ecological niche modelling predictions for the red-backed fairywren. This is the first study to investigate the Late Quaternary history of an endemic avian taxon from Australia using ecological niche modelling and Bayesian-based demographic analysis.

Climatic niche comparisons of eastern North American and eastern Asian disjunct plant genera

AbstractAimWhile the floras of eastern Asia (EA) and eastern North America (ENA) share numerous genera, they have drastically different species richness. Despite an overall similarity in the quality of their temperate climates, the climate of EA is more spatially heterogeneous than that of ENA. Spatial environmental heterogeneity has been found to play a key role in influencing species richness in some regions. Here, we tested the following hypotheses: (a) EA species will occupy larger climatic niches than their ENA congeners, (b) congeners of EA‐ENA disjunct genera will occupy statistically equivalent climatic niches, and (c) congeners of EA‐ENA disjunct genera will occupy more similar climatic niches than expected by their respective physiographic context.LocationNorth America and Asia.Time periodPresent.Major taxa studiedSeed plants.MethodsPredictions generated by ecological niche models (ENMs) were compared for 88 species across 31 EA‐ENA disjunct genera. ENM predictions were assessed for geographic and ecological breadth. Tests for niche equivalency and similarity were performed for congeneric species pairs to determine if species of disjunct genera have experienced niche conservatism or divergence.ResultsEA species tend to occupy greater amounts of climatic niche space than their close relatives in ENA. Over two‐thirds of the conducted niche comparisons show that EA‐ENA congeners either occupy equivalent climatic niche space within these broader climatic regimes or occupy non‐equivalent niches that are as similar as expected given their physiographic contexts.Main conclusionsEA species tend to occupy larger climatic niches, and congeners of EA‐ENA disjunct genera tend to occupy equivalent/similar niche space within their respective distributions, with differences in occupied niches possibly due to their respective physiographic contexts, highlighting how niche‐neutral processes and niche conservatism may affect the distributions of disjunct species.

The dynamics of historical and recent range shifts in the ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus)

Climate variability is the most important force affecting distributional range dynamics of common and widespread species with important impacts on biogeographic patterns. This study integrates phylogeography with distributional analyses to understand the demographic history and range dynamics of a widespread bird species, the Ruffed Grouse (Bonasa umbellus), under several climate change scenarios. For this, I used an ecological niche modeling approach, together with Bayesian based phylogeographic analysis and landscape genetics, to develop robust inferences regarding this species’ demographic history and range dynamics. The model’s predictions were mostly congruent with the present distribution of the Ruffed Grouse. However, under the Last Glacial Maximum bioclimatic conditions, the model predicted a substantially narrower distribution than the present. The predictions for the Last Glacial Maximum also showed three allopatric refugia in south-eastern and west-coast North America, and a cryptic refugium in Alaska. The prediction for the Last Interglacial showed two separate distributions to the west and east of the Rocky Mountains. In addition, the predictions for 2050 and 2070 indicated that the Ruffed Grouse will most likely show slight range shifts to the north and will become more widely distributed than in the past or present. At present, effective population connectivity throughout North America was weakly positively correlated with Fst values. That is, the species’ distribution range showed a weak isolation-by-resistance pattern. The extended Bayesian Skyline Plot analysis, which provided good resolution of the effective population size changes over the Ruffed Grouse’s history, was mostly congruent with ecological niche modelling predictions for this species. This study offers the first investigation of the late-Quaternary history of the Ruffed Grouse based on ecological niche modelling and Bayesian based demographic analysis. The species’ present genetic structure is significantly affected by past climate changes, particularly during the last 130 kybp. That is, this study offers valuable evidence of the ‘expansion–contraction’ model of North America’s Pleistocene biogeography.

Ecological niche models display nonlinear relationships with abundance and demographic performance across the latitudinal distribution of Astragalus utahensis (Fabaceae).

The potential for ecological niche models (ENMs) to accurately predict species' abundance and demographic performance throughout their geographic distributions remains a topic of substantial debate in ecology and biogeography. Few studies simultaneously examine the relationship between ENM predictions of environmental suitability and both a species' abundance and its demographic performance, particularly across its entire geographic distribution. Yet, studies of this type are essential for understanding the extent to which ENMs are a viable tool for identifying areas that may promote high abundance or performance of a species or how species might respond to future climate conditions. In this study, we used an ensemble ecological niche model to predict climatic suitability for the perennial forb Astragalus utahensis across its geographic distribution. We then examined relationships between projected climatic suitability and field‐based measures of abundance, demographic performance, and forecasted stochastic population growth (λs). Predicted climatic suitability showed a J‐shaped relationship with A. utahensis abundance, where low‐abundance populations were associated with low‐to‐intermediate suitability scores and abundance increased sharply in areas of high predicted climatic suitability. A similar relationship existed between climatic suitability and λs from the center to the northern edge of the latitudinal distribution. Patterns such as these, where density or demographic performance only increases appreciably beyond some threshold of climatic suitability, support the contention that ENM‐predicted climatic suitability does not necessarily represent a reliable predictor of abundance or performance across large geographic regions.

Genetic differentiation among Psittacanthus rhynchanthus (Loranthaceae) populations: novel phylogeographic patterns in the Mesoamerican tropical lowlands

Historical geological events and climatic changes have played important roles in shaping population differentiation and distribution within species. In this study, we analysed the distribution, expansion and colonization patterns, and genetic differentiation among Psittacanthus rhynchanthus populations in Mesoamerica. Specifically, we determine the effects of major historical events and geographic barriers on population divergence using nuclear and chloroplast DNA sequence data and the impact of Pleistocene glacial cycles on the distribution dynamics of P. rhynchanthus using ecological niche modelling (ENM). Our results showed that P. rhynchanthus populations split into two lineages, one distributed on the Yucatan Peninsula and the second along the Pacific and Atlantic slopes and Honduras, approximately 1 million years ago. The two lineages were fragmented at the last interglacial according to ENM predictions and experienced postglacial range expansion during the Last Glacial Maximum. Analysis of climate differentiation and niche models showed that both lineages have different climatic preferences, where the climatic characteristics of the Yucatan populations are not fully represented in the rest of the distribution range of P. rhynchanthus. Additionally, our study suggests that Pleistocene expansion of suitable habitat, environmental segregation (ecological barrier between regions) and, perhaps host shifts, have acted as the isolation mechanisms between the two lineages. Our results provide new insight as to understanding the distribution and phylogeographic patterns and the possible mechanisms underlying intraspecific evolutionary relationships of plants in the Mesoamerican tropical lowlands.

New distribution records from the Brazilian Cerrado and species distribution modelling of Boana crepitans, Lithobates palmipes, Pipa pipa, and Micrurus h. hemprichii

ABSTRACTEven though the herpetofauna richness in the Cerrado – a vast tropical savanna ecoregion of Brazil – is one of the highest of all Brazilian biomes, it still needs to be thoroughly investigated. This study reports the first records of the emerald-eyed tree frog (Boana crepitans), amazon waterfrog (Lithobates palmipes), star-fingered frog (Pipa pipa), and hemprich’s coral snake (Micrurus hemprichii hemprichii) within the states of Maranhão in the northeastern region and Tocantins in the northern region of Brazil. The first state records of Boana crepitans, Pipa pipa and Micrurus h. hemprichii in Tocantins, and Lithobates palmipes in Maranhão, appear in highly climatically suitable areas within the Species Extent of Occurrences (EOO), as predicted in Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM). Our new records of Pipa pipa and Micrurus h. hemprichii, compared to the ENM predictions, represent their southeastern distributional range limits. Our results also suggest that the current gaps on the distributional species ranges probably result from the lack of herpetological surveys in those regions.

Niche models do not predict experimental demography but both suggest dispersal limitation across the northern range limit of the scarlet monkeyflower (Erythranthe cardinalis)

AbstractAimGeographical ranges largely reflect the projection of species’ environmental niches onto the landscape, but dispersal limitation can cause ranges to fall short of niche limits. Understanding the prevalence of niche and dispersal limitation is a fundamental problem in ecology and biogeography, and it is relevant in predicting climate‐driven range shifts. Dispersal limitation could also cause widely used ecological niche models (ENM), which relate records of occurrence to environmental predictors, to underestimate properties of the ecological niche. Using a combination of experimental transplants and ENM, we tested for (a) dispersal and niche limitation across a species’ range boundary and (b) associations between ENM predictions and population performance.LocationOregon, USA.TaxonScarlet monkeyflower (Erythranthe cardinalis).MethodsWe created experimental populations within and beyond the northern range edge and used integral projection models (IPM) to infer potential population growth trajectories. We also built two classes of ecological niche models (ENM), one using climatic predictors and the other using fine‐scale stream habitat variables, to estimate habitat suitability across the northern range edge. Finally, we tested whether higher ENM suitability scores predict greater demographic performance.ResultsConsistent with dispersal limitation, experimental populations beyond the range were projected to persist or spread in three of four sites (compared to two of four sites within the range) and stream habitat ENM projected abundant suitable stream microhabitat within the species’ thermal envelope beyond the range edge. In contrast, climatic ENM suggested decreasing habitat suitability and availability at the northern range edge. Unexpectedly, higher climatic ENM scores were associated with negative population growth rates, while higher stream habitat ENM scores were unrelated to population growth.Main conclusionsThe northern range edge falls short of the species niche limit and is instead limited by dispersal into suitable habitat. Dispersal limitation caused correlative niche models to underestimate the climatic niche and to poorly predict demographic performance in a short‐term field study. These results highlight key challenges to applying predictions from correlative ENM to understanding range and niche limits.

Response of xerophytic plants to glacial cycles in southern South America.

Quaternary glaciations strongly affected the distribution of species from arid and semi-arid environments, as temperature drops were accompanied by strong fluctuations in rainfall. In this study, we examined the response of xerophytic species to glacial cycles, determining the genetic patterns and climatic niche of Echinopsis chiloensis var. chiloensis, an endemic columnar cactus of arid and semi-arid regions of Chile. We analysed 11 polymorphic microsatellites for 130 individuals from 13 populations distributed across the entire distribution of the species. We examined genetic diversity and structure, identified possible patterns of isolation by distance (IBD) and tested two competing population history scenarios using Approximate Bayesian Computation. The first scenario assumes a constant population size while the second includes a bottleneck in the southern population. The latter scenario assumed that the southernmost populations experienced a strong contraction during glaciation, followed by a postglacial expansion; by contrast, the area of the northernmost populations remained as a stable refugium. We also used ecological niche modelling (ENM) to evaluate the location and extension of suitable areas during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Holocene. We found a decline in genetic diversity towards high latitudes and a significant IBD pattern that together with ENM predictions suggest that E. chiloensis var. chiloensis experienced range contraction northwards during wet-cold conditions of the LGM, followed by expansion during aridification of the mid-Holocene. In addition to IBD, we detected the presence of a strong barrier to gene flow at 32°30'S, which according to coalescence analysis occurred 44 kyr BP. The resulting genetic clusters differed in realized climatic niche, particularly in the variables related to precipitation. Our results suggest that the cactus E. chiloensis var. chiloensis experienced range contraction and fragmentation during the wet-cold conditions of the LGM, which may have facilitated ecological differentiation between northern and southern populations, promoting incipient speciation.

Disentangling uncertainties from niche modeling in freshwater ecosystems

Predictions by ecological niche models (ENM) are affected by several sources of uncertainty including the modeling methods and type of variables employed. The predictive uncertainty has been often assessed in terrestrial ecosystems, but it is still unknown how freshwater variables affect the performance of ENMs, contributing to unreliable predictions for aquatic species. Here, we used the ecologically and economically relevant Amazon giant catfish (Brachyplatystoma filamentosum) as a model species to assess uncertainties on ENM predictions in freshwater ecosystems. Specifically, we assessed uncertainty by coupling ENM predictions using five modeling methods and four sets of freshwater environmental variables. Our results indicate that the modeling methods and secondarily the variables account for significant uncertainty in predicting freshwater species distribution using ENM. Areas with high environmental suitability such as the Amazon large rivers and nearby areas presented high uncertainty for the methods component, and lower uncertainties for freshwater variables. Moreover, freshwater variables accounted also for uncertainties in metrics of models’ performance. Whereas Topographic variables better predicted presences (higher sensitivities and lower omission errors), Land cover and Soil variables better predicted pseudo-absences (higher specificities and lower commission errors). The Hydroclimatic variables had better accuracy metrics values (AUC and TSS) but also generated the greatest uncertainty for the final models. When included variables from all groups, ENMs presented low uncertainties and good accuracy. In sum, our findings suggest the importance of measuring and mapping the uncertainties of ENMs using freshwater environmental database.

Pleistocene refugia in the Chihuahuan Desert: the phylogeographic and demographic history of the gymnosperm Ephedra compacta

AbstractAimWe investigate the influence of late Neogene orogenic activity and Pleistocene glacial‐interglacial cycles on intraspecific divergence and demographic history in the gymnosperm shrub Ephedra compacta. We test refugia hypotheses to explain geographical patterns of genetic diversity and phylogeographic structure in a warm North American desert that reaches inter‐tropical latitudes.LocationChihuahuan Desert, Mexican Plateau, Sierra Madre Oriental, Tehuacán Valley.MethodsGeographical patterns of genetic diversity were estimated using chloroplast DNA sequences of 191 individuals from 24 populations. AMOVA and SAMOVA analyses were used to assess population and phylogeographic structure, respectively. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) was implemented to test phylogeograhic scenarios of population divergence and demographic expansion. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) was performed to predict the potential distribution of E. compacta during the late Pleistocene and to estimate historical habitat stability. Refugia hypotheses were tested by estimating the linear associations between habitat stability, latitude and parameters of genetic diversity.ResultsHigh levels of population and phylogeographic structure were observed with six geographical groups explaining most of the variation. The best‐supported phylogeographic scenario assumed population divergence and demographic expansion during the Pleistocene. ENM predictions showed historical changes in the potential distribution of E. compacta, with a broader geographical extent in the present. Habitat stability was positively associated with population genetic diversity.Main conclusionsThe intraspecific population divergence and demographic expansion in E. compacta is probably associated with the glacial‐interglacial cycles of the Pleistocene. Our ENM predictions also support a scenario of habitat contraction and expansion during this time period. The phylogeographic history of E. compacta is predicted by climate refugia dynamics in which specific areas, primarily in the Mexican Plateau harbour the highest levels of habitat stability and genetic diversity.

Impact of species delimitation and sampling on niche models and phylogeographical inference: A case study of the East African reed frog Hyperolius substriatus Ahl, 1931

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have been used in a wide range of ecological and evolutionary studies. In biogeographic studies these models have, among other things, helped in the discovery of new allopatric populations, and even new species. However, small sample sizes and questionable taxonomic delimitation can challenge models, often decreasing their accuracy. Herein we examine the sensitivity of ENMs to the addition of new, geographically isolated populations, and the impact of applying different taxonomic delimitations. The East African reed frog Hyperolius substriatus Ahl, 1931 was selected as a case study because it has been the subject of previous ENM predictions. Our results suggest that addition of new data and reanalysis of species lineages of H. substriatus improved our understanding of the evolutionary history of this group of frogs. ENMs provided robust predictions, even when some populations were deliberately excluded from the models. Splitting the lineages based on genetic relationships and analysing the ENMs separately provided insights about the biogeographical processes that led to the current distribution of H. substriatus.

Population dynamics can be more important than physiological limits for determining range shifts under climate change

Evidence is accumulating that species' responses to climate changes are best predicted by modelling the interaction of physiological limits, biotic processes and the effects of dispersal-limitation. Using commercially harvested blacklip (Haliotis rubra) and greenlip abalone (Haliotis laevigata) as case studies, we determine the relative importance of accounting for interactions among physiology, metapopulation dynamics and exploitation in predictions of range (geographical occupancy) and abundance (spatially explicit density) under various climate change scenarios. Traditional correlative ecological niche models (ENM) predict that climate change will benefit the commercial exploitation of abalone by promoting increased abundances without any reduction in range size. However, models that account simultaneously for demographic processes and physiological responses to climate-related factors result in future (and present) estimates of area of occupancy (AOO) and abundance that differ from those generated by ENMs alone. Range expansion and population growth are unlikely for blacklip abalone because of important interactions between climate-dependent mortality and metapopulation processes; in contrast, greenlip abalone should increase in abundance despite a contraction in AOO. The strongly non-linear relationship between abalone population size and AOO has important ramifications for the use of ENM predictions that rely on metrics describing change in habitat area as proxies for extinction risk. These results show that predicting species' responses to climate change often require physiological information to understand climatic range determinants, and a metapopulation model that can make full use of this data to more realistically account for processes such as local extirpation, demographic rescue, source-sink dynamics and dispersal-limitation.

Taxonomic identification errors generate misleading ecological niche model predictions of an invasive hawkweed

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have been proposed and applied as tools for predicting the extent of exotic species invasion risk and for identifying areas at risk of invasion. Despite the acknowledged concern of relying on occurrence records of variable and (or) unknown quality, the effect of taxonomically uncertain occurrence records on ENMs has not been investigated. We first present a schematic model describing how taxonomic uncertainty could yield varying predictions of invasion potential depending on the spatial characteristics of all versus “reliable” occurrence records. We then explore the issue in more detail by way of a case study on the morphologically and taxonomically difficult yellowdevil hawkweed (Pilosella glomerata (Froel.) Fr.), which is invasive in North America. We compared the climate niche properties and ENM predictions of invasion risk by P. glomerata in North America among models based on (i) all available occurrence records and (ii) records that are taxonomically “reliable”. “Total” records yielded niche properties that were significantly more heterogeneous than reliable records, and consequently, the potential invasion range of P. glomerata based on total records was predicted to be substantially larger. Our results provide rare empirical evidence that vetting occurrence records for taxonomic reliability is of critical importance for niche modeling.

Profound Climatic Effects on Two East Asian Black-Throated Tits (Ave: Aegithalidae), Revealed by Ecological Niche Models and Phylogeographic Analysis

Although a number of studies have assessed the effects of geological and climatic changes on species distributions in East Asian, we still have limited knowledge of how these changes have impacted avian species in south-western and southern China. Here, we aim to study paleo-climatic effects on an East Asian bird, two subspecies of black-throated tit (A. c. talifuensis–concinnus) with the combined analysis of phylogeography and Ecological Niche Models (ENMs). We sequenced three mitochondrial DNA markers from 32 populations (203 individuals) and used phylogenetic inferences to reconstruct the intra-specific relationships among haplotypes. Population genetic analyses were undertaken to gain insight into the demographic history of these populations. We used ENMs to predict the distribution of target species during three periods; last inter-glacial (LIG), last glacial maximum (LGM) and present. We found three highly supported, monophyletic MtDNA lineages and different historical demography among lineages in A. c. talifuensis–concinnus. These lineages formed a narrowly circumscribed intra-specific contact zone. The estimated times of lineage divergences were about 2.4 Ma and 0.32 Ma respectively. ENMs predictions were similar between present and LGM but substantially reduced during LIG. ENMs reconstructions and molecular dating suggest that Pleistocene climate changes had triggered and shaped the genetic structure of black-throated tit. Interestingly, in contrast to profound impacts of other glacial cycles, ENMs and phylogeographic analysis suggest that LGM had limited effect on these two subspecies. ENMs also suggest that Pleistocene climatic oscillations enabled the formation of the contact zone and thus support the refuge theory.

Is the spatial distribution of mankind's most basic economic traits determined by climate and soil alone?

BackgroundSeveral authors, most prominently Jared Diamond (1997, Guns, Germs and Steel), have investigated biogeographic determinants of human history and civilization. The timing of the transition to an agricultural lifestyle, associated with steep population growth and consequent societal change, has been suggested to be affected by the availability of suitable organisms for domestication. These factors were shown to quantitatively explain some of the current global inequalities of economy and political power. Here, we advance this approach one step further by looking at climate and soil as sole determining factors.Methodology/Principal FindingsAs a simplistic ‘null model’, we assume that only climate and soil conditions affect the suitability of four basic landuse types – agriculture, sedentary animal husbandry, nomadic pastoralism and hunting-and-gathering. Using ecological niche modelling (ENM), we derive spatial predictions of the suitability for these four landuse traits and apply these to the Old World and Australia. We explore two aspects of the properties of these predictions, conflict potential and population density. In a calculation of overlap of landuse suitability, we map regions of potential conflict between landuse types. Results are congruent with a number of real, present or historical, regions of conflict between ethnic groups associated with different landuse traditions. Furthermore, we found that our model of agricultural suitability explains a considerable portion of population density variability. We mapped residuals from this correlation, finding geographically highly structured deviations that invite further investigation. We also found that ENM of agricultural suitability correlates with a metric of local wealth generation (Gross Domestic Product, Purchasing Power Parity).Conclusions/SignificanceFrom simplified assumptions on the links between climate, soil and landuse we are able to provide good predictions on complex features of human geography. The spatial distribution of deviations from ENM predictions identifies those regions requiring further investigation of potential explanations. Our findings and methodological approaches may be of applied interest, e.g., in the context of climate change.

Characterizing and predicting species distributions across environments and scales: Argentine ant occurrences in the eye of the beholder

ABSTRACTAim Species distribution models (SDMs) or, more specifically, ecological niche models (ENMs) are a useful and rapidly proliferating tool in ecology and global change biology. ENMs attempt to capture associations between a species and its environment and are often used to draw biological inferences, to predict potential occurrences in unoccupied regions and to forecast future distributions under environmental change. The accuracy of ENMs, however, hinges critically on the quality of occurrence data. ENMs often use haphazardly collected data rather than data collected across the full spectrum of existing environmental conditions. Moreover, it remains unclear how processes affecting ENM predictions operate at different spatial scales. The scale (i.e. grain size) of analysis may be dictated more by the sampling regime than by biologically meaningful processes. The aim of our study is to jointly quantify how issues relating to region and scale affect ENM predictions using an economically important and ecologically damaging invasive species, the Argentine ant (Linepithema humile).Location California, USA.Methods We analysed the relationship between sampling sufficiency, regional differences in environmental parameter space and cell size of analysis and resampling environmental layers using two independently collected sets of presence/absence data. Differences in variable importance were determined using model averaging and logistic regression. Model accuracy was measured with area under the curve (AUC) and Cohen's kappa.Results We first demonstrate that insufficient sampling of environmental parameter space can cause large errors in predicted distributions and biological interpretation. Models performed best when they were parametrized with data that sufficiently sampled environmental parameter space. Second, we show that altering the spatial grain of analysis changes the relative importance of different environmental variables. These changes apparently result from how environmental constraints and the sampling distributions of environmental variables change with spatial grain.Conclusions These findings have clear relevance for biological inference. Taken together, our results illustrate potentially general limitations for ENMs, especially when such models are used to predict species occurrences in novel environments. We offer basic methodological and conceptual guidelines for appropriate sampling and scale matching.

Lolly Rash?

<h3>ABSTRACT</h3> Climate variability is the most important force affecting distributional range dynamics of common and widespread species with important impacts on biogeographic patterns. This study integrates phylogeography with distributional analyses to understand the demographic history and range dynamics of a widespread bird species, the Ruffed Grouse (<i>Bonasa umbellus</i>), under several climate change scenarios. For this, I used an ecological niche modelling approach, together with Bayesian based phylogeographic analysis and landscape genetics, to develop robust inferences regarding this species’ demographic history and range dynamics. The model’s predictions were mostly congruent with the present distribution of the Ruffed Grouse. However, under the Last Glacial Maximum bioclimatic conditions, the model predicted a substantially narrower distribution than the present. The predictions for the Last Glacial Maximum also showed three allopatric refugia in south-eastern and west-coast North America, and a cryptic refugium in Alaska. The prediction for the Last Interglacial showed two separate distributions to the west and east of the Rocky Mountains. In addition, the predictions for 2050 and 2070 indicated that the Ruffed Grouse will most likely show slight range shifts to the north and will become more widely distributed than in the past or present. At present, effective population connectivity throughout North America was weakly positively correlated with F_<i>st</i> values. That is, the species’ distribution range showed a weak isolation-by-resistance pattern. The extended Bayesian Skyline Plot analysis, which provided good resolution of the effective population size changes over the Ruffed Grouse’s history, was mostly congruent with ecological niche modelling predictions for this species. This study offers the first investigation of the late-Quaternary history of the Ruffed Grouse based on ecological niche modelling and Bayesian based demographic analysis. The species’ present genetic structure is significantly affected by past climate changes, particularly during the last 130 kybp. That is, this study offers valuable evidence of the ‘expansion–contraction’ model of North America’s Pleistocene biogeography.