Ecological Modeling Tools Research Articles

Historical biogeography of the Saharan horned viper enlightens past dynamics of hyperarid desert habitats

Hyperarid habitats comprise the most dominant and harsh portion of the Sahara Desert, yet how local biotas have responded to paleoclimatic shifts and landscape heterogeneity remains unclear. Here, we assess the historical biogeography of Cerastes cerastes, a conspicuous but poorly known vertebrate inhabiting the hyperarid Sahara, to understand the links between intermittent and stable climatic suitability and patterns of genetic diversity and differentiation in these extreme environments. We combine phylogeographic and ecological modelling tools using a comprehensive species dataset, which includes DNA samples (n = 62) and occurrence records (n = 557) covering most of its range. We show that paleoclimatic oscillations were major evolutionary and biogeographic drivers in C. cerastes, which exhibits different levels of intra-specific diversity and allopatric lineage structuration across the desert. High lineage richness in the north-western Sahara contrasts with an overall lack of genetic diversity throughout the central and eastern Sahara. Climatic refugia along the desert's periphery and around mountain patches harbour single endemic lineages, stressing the links between stable climatic conditions and population isolation and divergence. Increasing climatic suitability during historical arid phases prompted widespread connectivity across the desert. This study lays the groundwork for better understanding the historical dynamics of the hyperarid Sahara.

Mapping Brazilian Expansion Risk Levels of Mango Weevil (Sternochetus mangiferae Fabricius) Based on MaxEnt.

The mango weevil, Sternochetus mangiferae (Fabricius) (Curculionidae), pest present in Brazil and is restricted to some municipalities in the Rio de Janeiro State. This curculionid attacks the mango crop exclusively and puts mango production globally at risk, especially those destined for export. Using ecological modeling tools, this study is the first to map the potential risk of S. mangiferae in Brazil. We aimed to identify the potential distribution of this pest in Brazilian states, drawing up thematic maps of regions that present suitable and unsuitable climatic conditions for the establishment of the pest using the MaxEnt ecological niche model. The average annual temperature, the annual precipitation, the average daytime temperature range, and the annual temperature range were the variables that contributed most to the selected model. The MaxEnt model predicted highly suitable areas for S. mangiferae throughout the Brazilian coast, especially on the northeast coast. The region responsible for more than 50% of mango production in Brazil, the São Francisco Valley, was classified by the model with suitability for the pest; it can impacts exportations due to the imposition of phytosanitary barriers. This information can be used in strategies to prevent the introduction and establishment of this pest in new areas and monitor programs in areas with recent occurrence. In addition, the model results can be used in future research plans on S. mangiferae in worldwide modeling studies and climate change scenarios.

Preventing a series of unfortunate events: Using qualitative models to improve conservation

Abstract Biological organisms are increasingly being introduced and eradicated in an effort to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem function in the face of anthropogenic threats. However, these conservation actions can have unintended consequences to non‐target species. Careful vetting of these actions using ecological modelling tools could help predict and avoid unintended consequences. Qualitative modelling tools, such as fuzzy interaction webs (FIWs), allow for qualitative rankings of community properties (e.g. interaction strength = high, medium, low) in combination with quantitative information to predict management outcomes. These tools have lower data requirements than strictly quantitative models, facilitating their use for communities lacking comprehensive parameterization. However, no studies have evaluated the efficacy of FIWs for predicting unintended consequences against empirically documented outcomes. Moreover, there is no process for systematically identifying which species to incorporate in community‐level conservation assessments to overcome model structure uncertainty. Finally, there is a need to make qualitative modelling tools more accessible for conservation practitioners. We applied FIWs to the case study of lake trout introduction into Yellowstone Lake, Yellowstone National Park, to assess its ability to predict documented community‐level outcomes from an intentional species introduction. Next, we used the case study of the intentional red squirrel introduction to Newfoundland to show how a community assessment framework can help define the community interaction web needed for applying a FIW. Lastly, we introduced a user‐friendly web interface (https://matrix.mpgranch.com/#/) for applying FIWs to conservation questions. We found that the FIW predicted previously documented directional changes in the abundance of community components relatively well in the Yellowstone Lake case study, even with minimal knowledge of the system. The community assessment framework provided a formal process for identifying community components for the Newfoundland case study, and the resulting FIW predicted documented unintended consequences. The user interface predicts realistic outcomes in our study system and allows managers to build and apply FIWs for conservation planning. Synthesis and applications. Our community assessment framework and user interface can be used to apply FIWs to identify and avert potential unintended outcomes of species introductions and eradications for improved conservation management.

Key Issues for Realizing Open Ecoacoustic Monitoring in Australia

Many organizations are attempting to scale ecoacoustic monitoring for conservation but are hampered at the stages of data management and analysis. We reviewed current ecoacoustic hardware, software, and standards, and conducted workshops with 23 participants across 10 organizations in Australia to learn about their current practices, and to identify key trends and challenges in their use of ecoacoustics data. We found no existing metadata schemas that contain enough ecoacoustics terms for current practice, and no standard approaches to annotation. There was a strong need for free acoustics data storage, discoverable learning resources, and interoperability with other ecological modeling tools. In parallel, there were tensions regarding intellectual property management, and siloed approaches to studying species within organizations across different regions and between organizations doing similar work. This research contributes directly to the development of an open ecoacoustics platform to enable the sharing of data, analyses, and tools for environmental conservation.

Asteroid impact, not volcanism, caused the end-Cretaceous dinosaur extinction.

The Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction, 66 Ma, included the demise of non-avian dinosaurs. Intense debate has focused on the relative roles of Deccan volcanism and the Chicxulub asteroid impact as kill mechanisms for this event. Here, we combine fossil-occurrence data with paleoclimate and habitat suitability models to evaluate dinosaur habitability in the wake of various asteroid impact and Deccan volcanism scenarios. Asteroid impact models generate a prolonged cold winter that suppresses potential global dinosaur habitats. Conversely, long-term forcing from Deccan volcanism (carbon dioxide [CO2]-induced warming) leads to increased habitat suitability. Short-term (aerosol cooling) volcanism still allows equatorial habitability. These results support the asteroid impact as the main driver of the non-avian dinosaur extinction. By contrast, induced warming from volcanism mitigated the most extreme effects of asteroid impact, potentially reducing the extinction severity.

Influence of Anthropogenic Noise for Predicting Cinereous Vulture Nest Distribution

Natural landscapes are increasingly under anthropogenic pressures, and concern about human impacts on wildlife populations is becoming particularly relevant in the case of natural areas affected by roads. The expansion of road networks is considered among the main factors threatening biodiversity due to their potential for disturbing natural ecosystems on large scales. Indeed, traffic noise pollution reduces the quantity and the quality of natural habitats, and umbrella species are frequently used as indicators of natural ecosystem health. In this sense, there is a variety of GIS-based ecological modeling tools that allow evaluation of the factors that influence species distributions in order to accurately predict habitat selection. In this study, we have combined the use of noise modeling tools and maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) to evaluate the relative importance of environmental variables for Cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus) nesting habitat selection within a mountainous forest in Spain. As a result, we found that spatial negative influence of roads on wildlife due to road traffic disturbance may have been traditionally overestimated when it has been inferred from distance measurements of wildlife behavior in road surroundings instead of from considering road traffic noise level exposure. In addition, we found a potential risk threshold for cinereous vulture breeding around roads, which ties in with a Leq24h level of 40 dB(A). This may be a useful indicator for assessing the potential impact of human activities on an umbrella species such as, for instance, the cinereous vulture, whose breeding does not take place where road traffic Leq24h levels are higher than 40 dB(A).

Using ecological modelling in marine spatial planning to enhance ecosystem-based management

Growing awareness of the role of marine spatial planning (MSP) in promoting sustainable development and ecosystem-based management highlights the need to use decision-support tools, and specifically ecological modelling tools, to consider the future impact of planning and management on the marine environment. However, how these tools can be incorporated into planning and their expected contribution is not always clear. Here, an Ecopath with Ecosim and Ecospace food-web model was used in a hypothetical planning process to examine the integration of food-web tools in specific stages of MSP. The model was used to examine spatial alternatives and management strategies for Orot Rabin coastal infrastructure facility in the Israeli Mediterranean coast, in an attempt to assess how such facilities might promote marine conservation. The results revealed the effect of different management protocols on the ecosystem, and provide the maximum allowable catch for sustaining the biomass of vulnerable fish species in the area, which can be used in MSP to address specific marine conservation goals. The model led to counterintuitive understandings regarding the management of the area. It demonstrated that intensive development under specific management strategies may promote conservation goals better than some management strategies directed towards ecological and recreational purposes. This study confirms the potential usefulness of food-web models for MSP; it specifies the stages and means by which planners can use models. Furthermore, it is suggested that tool's development should be planning-oriented and should include more applications to serve planners who aim to promote ecosystem-based management and marine conservation goals.

Evaluation and comparison of models and modelling tools simulating nitrogen processes in treatment wetlands

In this paper, two ecological models of nitrogen processes in treatment wetlands have been evaluated and compared. These models were implemented, simulated, and visualized using the Modelica modelling and simulation language [P. Fritzson, Principles of Object-Oriented Modelling and Simulation with Modelica 2.1 (Wiley-IEEE Press, USA, 2004).] and an associated tool. The differences and similarities between the MathModelica Model Editor and three other ecological modelling tools have also been evaluated. The results show that the models can well be modelled and simulated in the MathModelica Model Editor, and that nitrogen decrease in a constructed treatment wetland should be described and simulated using the Nitrification/Denitrification model as this model has the highest overall quality score and provides a more variable environment.

Instream flow needs in streams and rivers: the importance of understanding ecological dynamics

Resource managers have traditionally had to rely on simple hydrological and habitat-association methods to predict how changes in river flow regimes will affect the viability of instream populations and communities. Yet these systems are characterized by dynamic feedbacks among system components, a high degree of spatial and temporal variability, and connectivity between habitats, none of which can be adequately captured in the commonly employed management methods. We argue that process-oriented ecological models, which consider dynamics across scales and levels of biological organization, are better suited to guide flow regime management. We review how ecological dynamics in streams and rivers are shaped by a combination of the flow regime and internal feedbacks, and proceed to describe ecological modeling tools that have the potential to characterize such dynamics. We conclude with a suggested research agenda to facilitate the inclusion of ecological dynamics into instream flow needs assessments.