Ecological Model Research Articles

Optimizing a mentorship program from the perspective of academic medicine leadership – a qualitative study

BackgroundEffective mentorship is an important contributor to academic success. Given the critical role of leadership in fostering mentorship, this study sought to explore the perspectives of departmental leadership regarding 1) current departmental mentorship processes; and 2) crucial components of a mentorship program that would enhance the effectiveness of mentorship.MethodsDepartment Division Directors (DDDs), Vice-Chairs, and Mentorship Facilitators from the Department of Medicine at the University of Toronto Temerty Faculty of Medicine were interviewed between April and December 2021 using a semi-structured guide. Interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim, then coded. Analysis occurred in 2 steps: 1) codes were organized to identify emergent themes; then 2) the Social Ecological Model (SEM) was applied to interpret the findings.ResultsNineteen interviews (14 DDDs, 3 Vice-Chairs, and 2 Mentorship Facilitator) were completed. Analysis revealed three themes: (1) a culture of mentorship permeated the department as evidenced by rigorous mentorship processes, divisional mentorship innovations, and faculty that were keen to mentor; (2) barriers to the establishment of effective mentoring relationships existed at 3 levels: departmental, interpersonal (mentee-mentor relationships), and mentee; and (3) strengthening the culture of mentorship could entail scaling up pre-existing mentorship processes and promoting faculty engagement. Application of SEM highlighted critical program features and determined that two components of interventions (creating tools to measure mentorship outcomes and systems for mentor recognition) were potential enablers of success.ConclusionsEstablishing ‘mentorship outcome measures’ can incentivize and maintain relationships. By tangibly delineating departmental expectations for mentorship and creating systems that recognize mentors, these measures can contribute to a culture of mentorship.

A century of statistical Ecology.

As data and computing power have surged in recent decades, statistical modeling has become an important tool for understanding ecological patterns and processes. Statistical modeling in ecology faces two major challenges. First, ecological data may not conform to traditional methods, and second, professional ecologists often do not receive extensive statistical training. In response to these challenges, the journal Ecology has published many innovative statistical ecology papers that introduced novel modeling methods and provided accessible guides to statistical best practices. In this paper, we reflect on Ecology's history and its role in the emergence of the subdiscipline of statistical ecology, which we define as the study of ecological systems using mathematical equations, probability, and empirical data. We showcase 36 influential statistical ecology papers that have been published in Ecology over the last century and, in so doing, comment on the evolution of the field. As data and computing power continue to increase, we anticipate continued growth in statistical ecology to tackle complex analyses and an expanding role for Ecology to publish innovative and influential papers, advancing the discipline and guiding practicing ecologists.

Biased versus unbiased numerical methods for stochastic simulations

Approximate numerical methods are one of the most used strategies to extract information from many-interacting-agents systems. In particular, numerical approximations are of extended use to deal with epidemic, ecological and biological models, since unbiased methods like the Gillespie algorithm can become unpractical due to high CPU time usage required. However, the use of approximations has been debated and there is no clear consensus about whether unbiased methods or biased approach is the best option. In this work, we derive scaling relations for the errors in approximations based on binomial extractions. This finding allows us to build rules to compute the optimal values of both the discretization time and number of realizations needed to compute averages with the biased method with a target precision and minimum CPU-time usage. Furthermore, we also present another rule to discern whether the unbiased method or biased approach is more efficient. Ultimately, we will show that the choice of the method should depend on the desired precision for the estimation of averages.

The Phylogeography of Deciduous Tree Ulmus macrocarpa (Ulmaceae) in Northern China

Disentangling how climate oscillations and geographical events significantly influence plants’ genetic architecture and demographic history is a central topic in phytogeography. The deciduous ancient tree species Ulmus macrocarpa is primarily distributed throughout Northern China and has timber and horticultural value. In the current study, we studied the phylogenic architecture and demographical history of U. macrocarpa using chloroplast DNA with ecological niche modeling. The results indicated that the populations’ genetic differentiation coefficient (NST) value was significantly greater than the haplotype frequency (GST) (p < 0.05), suggesting that U. macrocarpa had a clear phylogeographical structure. Phylogenetic inference showed that the putative chloroplast haplotypes could be divided into three groups, in which the group Ⅰ was considered to be ancestral. Despite significant genetic differentiation among these groups, gene flow was detected. The common ancestor of all haplotypes was inferred to originate in the middle–late Miocene, followed by the haplotype overwhelming diversification that occurred in the Quaternary. Combined with demography pattern and ecological niche modeling, we speculated that the surrounding areas of Shanxi and Inner Mongolia were potential refugia for U. macrocarpa during the glacial period in Northern China. Our results illuminated the demography pattern of U. macrocarpa and provided clues and references for further population genetics investigations of precious tree species distributed in Northern China.

Spatial and Temporal Characteristic Analysis and Risk Assessment of Global Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N8 Subtype

H5N8 HPAI is a highly infectious avian disease that now poses a serious threat and potential risk to poultry farming, wild birds, and public health. In this study, to investigate the seasonality and transmission directionality of global H5N8 HPAI, the spatial and temporal analysis of H5N8 HPAI was conducted using time series decomposition and directional distribution analysis. An ecological niche model was developed for H5N8 HPAI in poultry to identify areas at high risk of H5N8 HPAI in poultry and associated risk factors. The results indicated that three global pandemics of H5N8 HPAI emerged from 2014 to 2022, all showing a southeast–northwest distribution direction. H5N8 HPAI occurred more frequently in winter and less frequently in summer. The southwestern border region and the southeastern region of North America, the southern region of South America, most of Europe, the southern border region and the northern border region of Africa, and the southwestern region and the southeastern region of Asia provide the suitable environment for the occurrence of H5N8 HPAI in poultry. Chicken density, duck density, population density, bio1 (annual mean temperature), and land cover were considered important variables for the occurrence of H5N8 HPAI in poultry. This study can help optimize the use of resources and provide new information for policymakers to carry out prevention and control efforts.

Analysis of landscape pattern and ecological risk change characteristics in Bosten Lake basin based on optimal scale

Amidst swift socioeconomic progress, urbanization is intensifying, necessitating robust methodologies for environmental quality monitoring. Landscape Ecological Risk (LER) has emerged as a pivotal tool in this context. Extensive research has focused on the land utilization rates within watersheds, scrutinizing them through the lens of land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics. This study delves into the LULC attributes of the Bosten Lake Basin (BLB) across three temporal snapshots: 2000, 2010, and 2020. Grasslands and bare ground made up the vast majority area of the BLB. Selected twelve landscape pattern indices, analyzed their response curves with respect to grain size, determined the optimal grain size to be 150 m, and analysed its optimum amplitude of 10 km × 10 km on the basis of the semi-variance function, thus determined the optimal scale for analyzing the landscape pattern. Exploring scale effect facilitates a nuanced examination of the landscape patterns and land use efficacy within BLB. From 2000 to 2020, the landscape pattern showed less fragmented, less aggregated, and more spatially heterogeneous. The landscape ecological risk index model has been constructed for the investigation of the LER change characteristics of the BLB. Lowest-risk zones and lower-risk zones of LER predominate in BLB. In 2000, 2010 and 2020 the combined lower and lowest risk zones represent 62.02 %, 59.37 % and 58.44 % of the catchment area respectively. Finally, analyzed the spatial autocorrelation variation characteristics of LER. The global Moran' I index of BLB for the three periods from 2000 to 2020 exceeded 0.7. This study establishes theoretical and practical foundation for future multi-scale landscape ecological risk studies in eco-fragile regions.

Understanding habitat suitability and road mortality for the conservation of the striped hyaena (Hyaena hyaena) in Batna (East Algeria)

Abstract The determination of suitable habitats and roadkill hotspots allows for the prioritization of areas of conservation and the identification of road sections that require appropriate planning and development. Understanding the factors that influence the species’ presence and those contributing to its road-related fatalities is crucial. This study demonstrates the use of MaxEnt modeling to map the potential distribution of the striped hyaena (Hyaena hyaena) in Batna province (East Algeria) using occurrence records and a set of environmental variables. The results indicated that the two primary environmental variables that influence the distribution of the species are the shrubland, and the slope with a contribution of 37.5 and 30.2 %, respectively, followed by built-up areas (12 %) and distance to roads (7.2 %). The species may occupy steep terrain with shrubland near anthropized areas. Road collisions represent a threat to the species, with 28 documented casualties from 2010 to 2020 in Batna. The kernel density estimation revealed an important roadkill hotspot along the national roads 3 and 28. This study represents a preliminary step for the use of wildlife ecological niche modeling and road management in Algeria.

A Composite Indicator of Polyvictimisation Through the Lens of the Ecological Model in Sub-Saharan Africa

AbstractIntimate partner violence (IPV) is a worldwide issue. One of the latest developments in its theoretical framework deals with the concept of polyvictimisation – the simultaneous occurrence of physical, emotional, and sexual abuse. However, the literature lacks an overall measure of violence for surveys. The aim of this research is to study IPV within the framework of the ecological model. A model-based composite indicator that takes into account the relationship between domestic abuse and individual characteristics of respondents, family dynamics, and community and societal traits is built using survey data. The data are from the Demographic and Health Survey collected in eleven African countries on women aged 15–49. The employed structural equation model shows the importance of individual characteristics while community and societal factors are less relevant. The composite indicator is also used for classification and ranking purposes, allowing areas where socio-educational interventions are more urgent to be identified.

Connecting unstably housed veterans living in rural areas to health care: Perspectives from Health Care Navigators.

To understand existing care practices and policies, and potential enhancements, to improve the effectiveness of the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Supportive Services for Veteran Families (SSVF) Health Care Navigators (HCN) in linking Veterans experiencing housing instability in rural areas with health care services. We used primary data collected during semistructured interviews with HCNs (n = 21) serving rural areas across the United States during Spring 2022. We applied the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) 2009 and the Social Ecological Model (SEM) to the collection and analysis of qualitative data to understand how HCNs administer services within SSVF and the larger community. We used rapid qualitative methods to summarize and analyze data. Templated matrix summaries identified facilitators and barriers to linking Veterans with health care services and policy and practice implications. Using CFIR 2009, we identified contextual factors affecting successful implementation of HCN services within SSVF; we offer a crosswalk between CFIR 2009 and the version updated in 2022. Framing facilitators and barriers within the SEM provided insight into whether implementation strategies should be addressed at a community, interpersonal, or intrapersonal level within the SEM. Facilitators included sufficient knowledge, training, and mentorship opportunities for HCNs and their capacity to collaborate within their organization and with other community-based organizations. Barriers included lack of local technology and housing resources, inadequate understanding of Veterans' service eligibilities and pathways to access those services, and deficient collaboration with the VA. Understanding facilitators and barriers experienced by HCN when linking unstably housed Veterans in rural areas with health care services can inform future strategies, including policy changes such as increased training to support HCNs' understanding of eligibility, benefits, and entitlements as well as improving communication and collaboration between VA and community partners.

Nonsmooth dynamics of a Filippov predator–prey ecological model with antipredator behavior

This article proposes a class of nonsmooth Filippov pest–predator ecosystems with intermittent control strategies based on the pest’s antipredator behavior. aiming to investigate the influence of control strategies and switching thresholds on pest control. First, a comprehensive theoretical analysis of various equilibria within the Filippov system is undertaken, emphasizing the presence and stability of sliding mode dynamics and pseudoequilibrium. Secondly, through numerical simulations, the article discusses boundary-focus, boundary-node, and boundary-saddle bifurcation. Finally, the nonexistence of limit cycles in the Filippov system is theoretically studied. The research indicates that the solution trajectories of the model ultimately stabilize either at the real equilibria or at pseudoequilibrium on the model’s switching surface. Moreover, when the model has multiple coexisting real equilibrium and pseudoequilibrium, the pest-control strategy is correlated with the initial density of both the pest and the predator population.

Intraspecific divergence in a coastal plant, Euphorbia jolkinii, at a major biogeographic boundary in East Asia.

Quaternary climatic fluctuations and long-distance seed dispersal across the sea are critical factors affecting the distribution of coastal plants, but the spatiotemporal nature of population expansion and distribution change of East Asian coastal plants during this period are rarely examined. To explore this process, we investigated the genome-wide phylogenetic patterns of Euphorbia jolkinii Boiss. (Euphorbiaceae), which grows widely on littoral areas of Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. We used plastome sequences and genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms in samples across the species range to reveal phylogeographic patterns and spatiotemporal distributional changes. We conducted ecological niche modeling for the present and the last glacial maximum (LGM). Genetic differentiation was observed between the northern and southern populations of E. jolkinii, separated by the major biogeographic boundary, the Tokara Gap. These two groups of populations differentiated during the glacial period and subsequently intermingled in the intermorainic areas of the central Ryukyu Islands after the LGM. Ecological niche models suggested that the potential range of E. jolkinii was restricted to southern Kyushu; however, it was widespread in the southern Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan during the LGM. This study provides evidence of genetic differentiation among coastal plant populations separated by the prominent biogeographical boundary. Although coastal plants are typically expected to maintain population connectivity through sea-drifted seed dispersal, our findings suggest that genetic differences may arise because of a combination of limited gene flow and changes in climate during the glacial period.

The Uncontrollable Mortality Risk Hypothesis: Theoretical Foundations and Implications for Public Health

Abstract The ‘Uncontrollable Mortality Risk Hypothesis’ employs a behavioural ecological model of human health behaviours to explain the presence of social gradients in health. It states that those who are more likely to die due to factors beyond their control should be less motivated to invest in preventative health behaviours. We outline the theoretical assumptions of the hypothesis and stress the importance of incorporating evolutionary perspectives into public health. We explain how measuring perceived uncontrollable mortality risk can contribute towards understanding socioeconomic disparities in preventative health behaviours. We emphasise the importance of addressing structural inequalities in risk exposure, and argue that public health interventions should consider the relationship between overall levels of mortality risk and health behaviours across domains. We suggest that measuring perceptions of uncontrollable mortality risk can capture the unanticipated health benefits of structural risk interventions, as well as help to assess the appropriateness of different intervention approaches.

Accelerometer-based swimming metabolism of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu).

Bioenergetics is informative for a range of fundamental and applied resource management questions, but findings are often constrained by a lack of ecological realism due to the challenges of remotely estimating key parameters such as metabolic rate. To enable field applications, we conducted a calibration study with smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu, 0.7-2 kg) surgically implanted with accelerometer transmitters and exposed to a ramp-Ucrit swimming protocol in a swim tunnel respirometer across a range of water temperatures (6, 12, 18, and 24°C). There was an exponential increase in fish acceleration with swimming speed, and acceleration per speed was higher in smaller fish and female fish, and at colder temperatures. Mass-specific fish metabolic rate (MO2; mg O2 kg-1 h-1) increased with swimming speed, acceleration, and temperature, and decreased with fish mass, which when combined were strong predictors of MO2. Maximum metabolic rate (MMR) was estimated to peak at 22°C, but maximum sustained swimming speed (Ucrit) remained high at c. 90-100 m s-1 above 20°C, based on second-order polynomial functions. Aerobic scope (AS) estimates peaked at 20°C (>90% AS at 17-24°C; >50% AS at 11-28°C). Males exhibited marginally higher MMR, AS, and Ucrit than females at higher temperatures. Larger fish generally exhibited higher Ucrit, but smaller fish had a marginally broader performance range (AS, Ucrit) among temperatures, benefiting from higher MMR despite a steeper increase in resting metabolic rate with temperature. These findings enable field studies to estimate metabolic metrics of smallmouth bass in situ to characterize their ecological energetics and inform bioenergetics models.

Combining CENTURY model and vulnerability assessment index to estimate aboveground biomass and ecological vulnerability of grassland: An analysis in Northwest Sichuan Plateau

Evaluating the impact of climate change on grassland productivity using grassland ecological models is of great significance for the sustainable use of grasslands. Based on meteorological, soil, and grassland data, this study employed the Grassland Ecosystem Model (CENTURY) to scrutinize the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of above-ground biomass (AGB) of grasslands in the northwest Sichuan Plateau (NWSP) and established a spatial distribution pattern of grassland vulnerability levels in the NWSP. Utilizing five on-site verification points, the CENTURY model worked well in simulating the AGB of grasslands in the NWSP and was suitable for investigating the impact of climate change on grassland productivity in the NWSP. Simulation outcomes revealed a zonal distribution pattern of the annual average AGB in grasslands across the NWSP, with the central region exhibiting higher levels surpassing 800 g m−². From 1961 to 2020, the AGB of grasslands showed a significant increase trend, with growth rates ranging from 14.2 to 25.9 g m−2·(10a)−1. Overall, the northern and central regions of the NWSP experienced substantial climate impacts, coinciding with a marked increase in biomass. From 1961 to 2020, the overall vulnerability of grasslands in the NWSP was relatively low, with areas exhibiting moderate or lower vulnerability levels accounting for 83.8 %. The overall spatial distribution pattern showed low vulnerability in the north and central regions, and high vulnerability in the eastern and southwestern edges.

Coding Optimization for an Ecological non-linear Age-structured Fish Population Model with a Shepherd Recruitment Function

The study of the optimally density-regulated recruitment plays a crucial role in the overall management and determining of fishing efforts of marine fish populations. This paper will develop a Matlab code can determine what an optimal recruitment density regulation strategy would be for the un-fished population and what it changes to when fishing efforts are applied. This code can determine threshold values used to avoid fisheries from collapsing. The code will be applied to the Gulf of California Pacific sardine (Sardinops caeruleus) population. An age structured design with a Shepherd density regulating stock-recruitment function is used in this study. In this work, the parameter which is varied is captured in the Shepherd recruitment function and is associated with behavioral interventions such as selecting different drift routes and clumping on resources that will increase egg-larvae survival to the recruitment stage. A detailed background study of other models is explored, then a derivation of the Shepherd recruitment model is developed from the traditional discrete model. A special MATLAB code is then developed to illustrate the pair-wise invasive plots for the model structures. The code is for theoretical analysis of fish population models.

Evaluation of urban ecological security model based on GIS sensing and MCR model

Urban ecological security is not only a basic safety requirement for human security and development, but also an important part of national security and other security and infrastructure carriers. Protecting the environment is an important factor in the construction of China's natural civilization. In recent years, with the deterioration of the environment, the region and its people have paid more and more attention to the safety of urban ecological environment, which has become one of the hottest issues in current research. Land use/cover rate change (LUCC) affects the environment, which will also affect environmental safety, and changes in its appearance will also affect nature and the environment, providing a positive impetus for the control of natural processes. In this paper, researches on the above problems in City K and Zhengzhou are carried out, using MSPA and visual image forms to better connect local resources, and through the MCR model based on ecological control, a weight-based multi-structure network model is established, which is conducive to the establishment of a multi-structure network model based on ecological control. Build a city of environmental science network. The GIS control line was explored, and the concept of the control line was filled to a certain extent. At the same time, taking City K and Zhengzhou as examples, determining the breadth of their layout and management, as well as the control strategy of their environmental control lines, provides a specific reference angle for the layout and research of other cities. Urban ecological security is very important to each of us living in cities. It is a difficult problem at this stage to establish an ecological security model to open a new security pattern.

Parental Allyship for Children With Dyslexia: A Conceptual Lens on Disability Experience

Parental Allyship for Children With Dyslexia: A Conceptual Lens on Disability Experience

Flight capacity and behavior of Ephestia kuehniella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in response to kairomonal and pheromonal stimuli.

Flight behavior is an important component to understand in the context of pest management. However, because of their small size, little is known about the flight capacity of most stored-product insects, and when a flight has been assessed, it usually consists of a propensity for initiating flight. Despite a priori expectations of the importance of flight for moths, there are no data about the flight capacity and little on the flight behavior of the Mediterranean flour moth, Ephestia kuehniella Zeller (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae). As a result, the objective of the current study was to (i) characterize the baseline flight capacity of E. kuehniella and (ii) determine how flight capacity is affected by the presence of kairomonal, pheromonal, or no stimuli. We found adult E. kuehniella flew a mean of 24-34 km in a 24-h period, and the distance flown per bout increased from 91 to 207 m in the presence of pheromones but decreased to 41 m when food was nearby compared to a negative control. The total number of flight bouts was 1.6-fold higher in the presence of pheromone compared to the negative control, but E. kuehniella flew significantly slower with pheromone and food cues present, suggesting they may be exhibiting an optimal foraging strategy. Our data on flight capacity results in qualitatively and quantitatively different conclusions about flight than those conclusions formed if only flight initiation is considered. Overall, this novel information is useful for understanding the spread within facilities and in the landscape (between facilities), as well as parameterizing ecological modeling.

Incidence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation Cycle on the Existing Fundamental Niche and Establishment Risk of Some Anastrepha Species (Diptera-Tephritidae) of Horticultural Importance in the Neotropics and Panama

To compare the environmental space of four Anastrepha species in different ENSO episodes (El Niño, El Neutro and La Niña), we built ecological niche models with NicheA software. We analysed the fundamental niche and the combined establishment risk maps of these species developed with the ArcGisPro combine geoprocess. A comparison of the ellipsoids that represent the fundamental niche existing for the species showed changes in the El Niño, El Neutro and La Niña episodes. For A. grandis in the El Niño vs. El Neutro episodes, there was a Jaccard index of 0.3841, while the comparison between the La Niña vs. El Neutro episodes presented a Jaccard index of 0.6192. A. serpentina in the El Niño vs. El Neutro and La Niña vs. El Neutro episodes presented Jaccard indices of 0.3281 and 0.6328, respectively. For A. obliqua, the comparison between the El Niño vs. El Neutro and La Niña vs. El Neutro episodes presented Jaccard indices of 0.3518 and 0.7472, respectively. For A. striata, comparisons between the episodes of El Niño vs. El Neutro and La Niña vs. El Neutro presented Jaccard indices of 0.3325 and 0.6022, respectively. When studying the comparison between Anastrepha species and the different ENSO climatic episodes, we found that in the El Niño episode, the comparisons with the best environmental similarity were A. obliqua vs. A. striata and A. obliqua vs. A. serpentina, with higher Jaccard indices (0.6064 and 0.6316, respectively). In the El Neutro episode, the comparisons with the best environmental similarity were A. serpentina vs. A. striata and A. obliqua vs. A. striata, which presented higher Jaccard indices (0.4616 and 0.6411, respectively). In the La Niña episode, the comparisons that presented the best environmental similarity were A. obliqua vs. A. serpentina and A. obliqua vs. A. striata, with higher Jaccard indices (0.5982 and 0.6228, respectively). Likewise, our results present the risk maps for the establishment of these species throughout the Neotropics, allowing us to predict the level of risk in order to develop integrated pest management plans.

Predicting river phytoplankton blooms and community succession using ecological niche modeling

AbstractExcessive phytoplankton concentrations in rivers can result in the loss of plant and invertebrate communities, and threaten drinking water supplies. Whilst the physicochemical controls on algal blooms have been identified previously, how these factors combine to control the initiation, size, and cessation of blooms in rivers is not well understood. We applied flow cytometry to quantify diatom, chlorophyte, and cyanobacterial group abundances in the River Thames (UK) at weekly intervals from 2011 to 2022, alongside physicochemical data. A niche modeling approach was used to identify thresholds in water temperature, flow, solar radiation, and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations required to produce periods of phytoplankton growth, with blooms only occurring when all thresholds were met. The thresholds derived from the 2011 to 2018 dataset were applied to a test data set (2019–2022), which predicted the timing and duration of blooms at accuracies of > 80%. Diatoms and nano‐chlorophyte blooms were initiated by flow and water temperature, and usually terminated due to temperature and flow going out of the threshold range, or SRP and Si becoming limiting. Cyanobacterial bloom dynamics were primarily controlled by water temperature and solar radiation. This simple methodology provides a key understanding of phytoplankton community succession and inter‐annual variation and can be applied to any river with similar water quality and phytoplankton data. It provides early warnings of algal and cyanobacterial bloom timings, which support future catchment management decisions to safeguard water resources, and provides a basis for modeling changing phytoplankton bloom risk due to future climate change.