Ecological Bias Research Articles

Ammonites as paleothermometers: Isotopically reconstructed temperatures of the Western Interior Seaway track global records

Ammonites are externally shelled cephalopods that were common in the North American Western Interior Seaway (WIS), and as they grew their aragonitic shells via accretion, they recorded aspects of their environment in the stable isotopic composition of their shells. While the mobility of ammonites may complicate efforts to reconstruct temperatures from their shells, they remain a potentially valuable target for paleothermometry. In this study, we reconstruct the spatial and temporal variability of WIS temperatures using a suite of ammonites (n = 113) spanning the last 25 million years of the Cretaceous along a North-South gradient ranging from the Canadian WIS to the Mississippi Embayment. We present a temporally high-resolution (~0.6 Ma) oxygen isotope record from these ammonites that indicates cooling temperatures in the WIS of comparable magnitude (~18 °C +/− 4°) to the temperature change seen in global studies, most notably cooling from the Cretaceous Thermal Maximum in the Turonian until the late Maastrichtian. Studies disagree regarding the development and strength of a latitudinal (pole-to-equator) temperature gradient during the Cretaceous; we do not see strong evidence for a latitudinal temperature gradient in the WIS. We do not observe any bias driven by ammonite morphology in our isotopic data, though we suggest that researchers consider the effects of taxonomy and ecological bias on their temperature records. As our ammonite δ18O record matches the direction and magnitude of global temperature reconstructions, our data imply that ammonites are viable targets for paleothermometry.

Impact of Ecological Cognitive Bias on Pesticide Reduction by Natural Rubber Farmers in China: Insight from Price Insurance Satisfaction

Some natural rubber farmers mistakenly equate the ecological functions of rubber plantations with those of primary forests. This cognitive bias can hinder pesticide reduction efforts. Meanwhile, natural rubber farmers gain security through price insurance, which helps them adopt a long-term perspective on environmental protection, mitigating the negative impact of cognitive biases on pesticide use decisions. However, existing research often overlooks the influence of ecological cognitive bias on pesticide reduction and the moderating role of price insurance satisfaction. This study utilizes field survey data from Hainan and employs logit models and double machine learning models to empirically analyze the impact of ecological cognitive bias on pesticide reduction among natural rubber farmers. It further tests the underlying mechanisms using moderation models. The results indicate that (1) ecological cognitive bias negatively affects pesticide reduction among natural rubber farmers, and (2) price insurance satisfaction mitigates the impact of ecological cognitive bias on pesticide reduction. Based on these findings, the government should enhance education and training to raise ecological awareness among natural rubber farmers and reduce ecological cognitive biases. Disseminating knowledge about price insurance and establishing a comprehensive insurance system can secure farmers’ income and promote the rational use of pesticides.

Quantifying species biases among multidata sources on illegal wildlife trade and its implications for conservation.

Unsustainable wildlife consumption and illegal wildlife trade (IWT) threaten biodiversity worldwide. Although publicly accessible data sets are increasingly used to generate insights into IWT, little is known about their potential bias. We compared three typical and temporally corresponding data sets (4204 court verdicts, 926 seizure news reports, and 219 bird market surveys) on traded birds native to China and evaluated their possible species biases. Specifically, we evaluated bias and completeness of sampling for species richness, phylogeny, conservation status, spatial distribution, and life-history characteristics among the three data sets when determining patterns of illegal trade. Court verdicts contained the largest species richness. In bird market surveys and seizure news reports, phylogenetic clustering was greater than that in court verdicts, where songbird species (i.e., Passeriformes) were detected in higher proportions in market surveys. The seizure news data set contained the highest proportion of species of high conservation priority but the lowest species coverage. Across the country, all data sets consistently reported relatively high species richness in south and southwest regions, but markets revealed a northern geographic bias. The species composition in court verdicts and markets also exhibited distinct geographical patterns. There was significant ecological trait bias when we modeled whether a bird species is traded in the market. Our regression model suggested that species with small body masses, large geographical ranges, and a preference for anthropogenic habitats and those that are not nationally protected were more likely to be traded illegally. The species biases we found emphasize the need to know the constraints of each data set so that they can optimally inform strategies to combat IWT.

Cholecystectomy and digestive cancer in Chile: Complementary results from interrupted time series and aggregated data analyses.

Gallbladder cancer (GBC) mortality in Chile is among the highest worldwide. In 2006, the Chilean government launched a programme guaranteeing access to gallbladder surgery (cholecystectomy) for patients aged 35-49 years. We evaluated the impact of this programme on digestive cancer mortality. After conducting an interrupted time series analysis of hospitalisation and mortality data from 2002 to 2018 publicly available from the Chilean Department of Health Statistics and Information, we calculated the change in the proportion of individuals without gallbladder since 10 years. We then estimated age, gender, region, and calendar-year standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) as a function of the change in the proportion of individuals without gallbladder. The cholecystectomy rate increased by 45 operations per 100,000 persons per year (95%CI 19-72) after the introduction of the health programme. Each 1% increase in the proportion of individuals without gallbladder since 10 years was associated with a 0.73% decrease in GBC mortality (95% CI -1.05% to -0.38%), but the negative correlation was limited to women, southern Chile and age over 60. We also found decreasing mortality rates for extrahepatic bile duct, liver, oesophageal and stomach cancer with increasing proportions of individuals without gallbladder. To conclude, 12 years after its inception, the Chilean cholecystectomy programme has markedly and heterogeneously changed cholecystectomy rates. Results based on aggregate data indicate a negative correlation between the proportion of individuals without gallbladder and mortality due to gallbladder and other digestive cancers, which requires validation using individual-level longitudinal data to reduce the potential impact of ecological bias.

Which birds have the most to lose? an analysis of bird species’ feeding habitat in changing Australian landscapes

Australia has lost vast areas of its natural vegetation through agriculture and urbanization, resulting in the area of suitable habitat for many Australian bird species being greatly diminished. Given the geographical and ecological biases in anthropogenic land use, the impact of habitat loss now and into the future may be disproportionately high for some species, threatening their long-term persistence. Such changes are occurring rapidly, and habitat loss needs to be monitored dynamically to prevent extinction. To monitor changes in available unmodified species habitat, we use species’ area of feeding habitat (AFH), which represents the area of habitat within a species’ range with vegetation matching their feeding requirements. We analysed the past, current and future threats of habitat modification for 467 Australian bird species by calculating AFH across three time periods: pre-colonization, current (2020), and a projected future scenario (2100). These values were used to identify species subject to substantial habitat loss due to urbanization and agriculture and delineate predictors of such losses. Most species had experienced habitat loss since colonization (n = 442, 95%), and species that had already experienced considerable habitat loss were more likely to lose habitat into the future. Species with particular habitat associations (e.g., Mallee), were also more prone to greater proportions of habitat lost. The results highlight the utility of AFH and emphasize the importance of protecting what habitat remains for the species with highly depleted geographic ranges, noting that those that have experienced the most loss of unmodified habitat are the most likely to lose more unmodified habitat under future conditions.

Evaluation of weather and environmental factors and their association with cutaneous melanoma incidence: A national ecological study

BackgroundCutaneous melanoma (CM) is a significant contributor to skin cancer-related mortality globally and in Canada. Despite the well-established link between ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure and skin cancer risk, there remains a gap in population-level interventions and persistent misconceptions about sun exposure and impact of environment on individual behavior. ObjectiveThe current study provides an ecological analysis using latest available data (2011-2017) to define geographic/environmental contributors to the CM landscape in Canada. MethodsUtilizing Canadian Cancer Registry (CCR) and Canadian Urban Environmental Health Research Consortium (CANUE) data, we analyzed 39,605 CM cases occurring in Canada from 2011-2017. Environmental data, including UV radiation, greenspace (NDVI), temperature, heat events, and precipitation was used to evaluate the effect of environment on CM incidence rates across Forward Sortation Area (FSA) postal codes. ResultsFSAs with increased CM incidence were associated with higher annual average temperature, snowfall, heat events, NDVI, and vitamin D-weighted UV exposure. Conversely, factors associated with decreased incidence included an increased annual highest temperature, rain precipitation, and a longer duration of heat events. LimitationsThis study is subject to ecological bias and findings should be interpreted with caution ConclusionThis study further substantiates associations between specific environmental factors and CM incidence.

Not just emotion regulation, but cognition: An experience sampling study testing the relations of ecological interpretation biases and use of emotion regulation strategies with momentary affective states during daily life functioning

BackgroundCurrent research is moving from studying cognitive biases and maladaptive emotion regulation (ER) as relatively stable phenomena contributing to affective disturbances, adopting ecological methodologies, such as Experience Sampling Methods (ESM). However, there is still limited ESM evidence on the interactions between stress and ER strategies’ use, and negative interpretation biases, regarding their relations with momentary affective states. In this study, we used a new ESM design to disentangle the contextual, regulatory and cognitive processes implicated in daily affective experiences. MethodA sample of 103 participants completed an ESM study (3 times a day for 10 days) that included self-reports of momentary affect, stress intensity, ER strategies’ use and a cognitive task measuring momentary negative interpretation biases. ResultsMultilevel analyses supported significant interactions of both rumination and worry with stress intensity, to account for momentary higher negative and lower positive affect levels. Furthermore, higher state negative interpretation bias levels uniquely predicted both higher negative and lower positive momentary affect levels. ConclusionThis study implemented a novel online cognitive task within an ESM procedure, which helped to disentangle how contextual ER strategies’ use and momentary cognitive biases uniquely relate to affective experiences in daily life.

Seeding the Pantanal: orchestrating research to overcome restoration barriers in the world's largest tropical wetland

Knowledge on seed ecology is foundational for effective seed‐based restoration including seedling production, direct seed sowing, topsoil transplant, and natural regeneration. Consequently, quantifying available knowledge and biases in seed‐based research allows practitioners to better plan and implement seed‐based restoration programs and identify research priorities. Using a systematic review comprising 45 papers, 401 species, and 2,415 case studies, we provide an overview of seed ecology research in the Pantanal, the world's largest tropical wetland. We identified geographic, taxonomic, and ecological biases, as well as knowledge gaps in seed functions including production, dispersal, dormancy, germination, predation, and stress tolerance. Studies concentrated near large cities resulting in extensive unexplored sites in central Pantanal, in Paraguay, and in Bolivia. Unexpectedly, the most studied species were conducted with dry‐fruited, terrestrial forbs, or shrubs with autochoric or zoochoric dispersal syndromes. Seed banks, stress tolerance, and dispersal were the most studied topics, whereas studies on dormancy and seedling establishment remain rare. We also found disproportionate research interest across the angiosperm tree of life with many examples of underrepresented and overrepresented families. Altogether, persistent knowledge gaps in seed‐based research in the Pantanal hinder upscaling restoration programs and consequently the likelihood of achieving the targets of UN Decade of Ecosystem Restoration. We propose an integrated agenda consisting of a series of orchestrated actions to overcome such barriers, close biodiversity knowledge shortfalls, and promote successful large‐scale restoration programs in the Pantanal.

Neighbourhood structure and environmental quality: A fine-grained analysis of spatial inequalities in urban Germany

Urban environments are characterised by sparsity of space, elevated levels of air pollution and limited exposure to natural environments. Yet, residential environmental quality varies substantially both between and within cities. This study combines information on the socio-economic and demographic composition of 243,607 urban neighbourhoods with administrative and remote sensing data on the spatial distribution of industrial plants and urban green space to investigate patterns of environmental inequality in urban Germany at unprecedented levels of spatial granularity. It disentangles neighbourhood disadvantages experienced by foreign minorities (non-nationals) from those experienced by low-income households in order to assess the plausibility of economic explanations of residential sorting. The high level of spatial granularity makes it possible to examine patterns of environmental inequality not only between the relatively large areas that have been used as units of analysis in previous work but also within them, while reducing the threat of ecological bias. Results indicate that non-nationals are more likely to be exposed to industrial air pollution and less likely to live close to green spaces. This association holds even after adjusting for neighbourhood income composition and in fixed-effects specifications that restrict the analysis to within-city variation. I find no evidence for environmental inequality by socio-economic status. Exploratory sub-sample analyses show that neighbourhood disadvantages for non-nationals are higher in cities characterised by high levels of anti-foreigner sentiment, pointing towards housing market discrimination as a potentially important driver of foreign residents’ neighbourhood disadvantage.

Telehealth transitional care and 30-day readmission during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Transitional care management (TCM) services after hospital discharge are critical for continuity of care, and the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the shift to telehealth modes of delivery. This study examined the shift from face-to-face to telehealth care around the start of the pandemic (April-July 2020) compared with the same months in 2019 and 2021 and the corresponding 30-day readmission rates. We compared the rates of face-to-face and telehealth TCM as well as face-to-face and telehealth non-TCM services and observed a dramatic shift to telehealth in 2020 with a slight drop-off in 2021. For TCM services specifically, face-to-face visits made up nearly 90% of visits in 2019, whereas telehealth made up the vast majority in 2020 and 2021 at 97.5% and 84.9%, respectively. Over the same time periods, 30-day readmission rates remained steady at 10% along with no changes in 30-day mortality. Among those who completed TCM visits, 30-day readmission rates remained between 8% and 9% and 30-day mortality remained below 1%. These data indicate that this dramatic systemwide shift from face-to-face to telehealth TCM was not accompanied by concurrent changes in either 30-day readmission or mortality rates. Although the findings may be subject to ecologic bias, the data at hand did not allow for reliable estimation of differences in effects of patient-level service delivery type on readmission risk or mortality due to the extremely low volume of face-to-face visits during the pandemic periods. Future research would be needed to conduct suchcomparisons.

Distribution of COVID-19 Cases According to Environmental Pollutants and Meteorological Factors in Districts of Maharashtra

Abstract Introduction: Environmental factors such as temperature, precipitation, and various other pollutants in the air like nitrogen dioxide (NO2), CO2, etc., have been studied for sustenance and transmission of Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19). Studies from India are lacking about the distribution of COVID-19 cases according to air pollutants and meteorological factors. Hence, the present study was conducted to study the relationship between COVID-19 and environmental factors with the objectives of Cluster mapping of the COVID-19 cases district-wise for the state of Maharashtra. Methodology: The air pollution variables NO2 column density (mol/m2), sulfur dioxide column density (mol/m2), Aerosol absorbing index (Ai), Carbon monoxide (CO) column density (mol/m2), and Ozone column density (mol/m2) were extracted from Sentinel-5P datasets available in Google Earth Engine (GEE) (https://code.earthengine.google.com/). The meteorological variables precipitation (m), temperature (t), and humidity (k) were extracted from the European Environmental Agency 5-Land reanalysis dataset in GEE, which provides data at a resolution of 1113.2 m. The preprocessing and retrieval of data were carried out in GEE. These values were correlated with daily cases, density, and other demographic factors. Results: The study identified a cluster of cases in few districts of Maharashtra. These districts were Pune, Ahmednagar, Mumbai, Nashik, and Nagpur. Population density and NO2 were important factors in most of the monthly data. Conclusion: The present study used data available on public platforms to assess the association between COVID-19 and environmental factors. The study found that various environmental factors such as NO2, CO, and Ai may be associated with increase cases of COVID-19 in the district. However, ecological bias may be kept in mind.

Deaths of despair in England: an observational study of local authority mortality data

BackgroundDeaths of Despair (DoD) are socially patterned causes of death encompassing drug and alcohol misuse and suicide. DoDs are strongly associated with socioeconomic disadvantage. England has high levels of inequalities, so we hypothesised the existence of marked geographical variations in DoD. We aimed to yield new knowledge on the spatial distribution of DoD, and area-level socioeconomic factors that predict DoD risk in England. MethodsThis observational study was conducted using ICD-10 coded deaths for 307 local authorities in England during 2019–21. Deaths were grouped to non-overlapping categories of drug-related death, alcohol-specific death, and suicide. The mean contributions of each of these causes to the total number of DoD in England were calculated with Poisson exact confidence intervals. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) for DoD were generated for each local authority population. A multivariable regression model for DoD risk was developed using 25 socioeconomic variables. FindingsAn estimated 46 200 people lost their lives due to DoD between Jan 1, 2019, and Dec 31, 2021. Regional SMRs ranged from 57·4 (SD 16·1) in London to 144·1 (SD 26·8) in the northeast of England (p<0·0001). Alcohol-specific deaths were the largest contributor of DoD, accounting for 44·1% of DoD (95% CI 43·5–44·8), followed by drug-related death (28·1%, 27·7–28·6) and suicide (27·7%, 27·2–28·2). Living in the North, living alone, White British ethnicity, lower inward migration, economic inactivity, income deprivation in older people, employment in elementary occupations, unemployment, and education deprivation in adults were significantly associated with higher DoD rates in England. InterpretationDoD in England are spatially patterned, with northern regions experiencing a considerably higher burden of mortality from these avoidable causes. A key limitation is ecological bias. This study provides novel insights into area-level risk factors for DoD in England. FundingNational Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Applied Research Collaboration Greater Manchester (ARC-GM).

GRADE guidance 38: updated guidance for rating up certainty of evidence due to a dose-response gradient

IntroductionThis updated guidance from the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation addresses rating up certainty of evidence due to a dose-response gradient (DRG) observed in synthesis of intervention and exposure studies. Study Design and SettingThis guidance was developed using iterative discussions and consensus in multiple meetings and was presented to attendees of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation Working Group meeting for feedback in November 2022 and for final approval in May 2023. ResultsThe guidance consists of two steps. The first is to determine whether the DRG is credible. We describe five items for assessing credibility: a) is DRG identified using a proper analytical approach; b) is confounding the cause of the DRG; c) is there serious concern about ecological bias; d) is the DRG consistent across studies; and e) is there indirect evidence supporting the DRG. The first two of these items are the most critical. If the DRG was judged to be credible, then the second step is to apply the DRG domain and consider rating up, but only by one level due to the concern about residual confounding. ConclusionSystematic review authors should only rate up certainty in evidence when a DRG is deemed credible.

Combining aggregate and individual-level data to estimate individual-level associations between air pollution and COVID-19 mortality in the United States.

Imposing stricter regulations for PM2.5 has the potential to mitigate damaging health and climate change effects. Recent evidence establishing a link between exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 outcomes is one of many arguments for the need to reduce the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for PM2.5. However, many studies reporting a relationship between COVID-19 outcomes and PM2.5 have been criticized because they are based on ecological regression analyses, where area-level counts of COVID-19 outcomes are regressed on area-level exposure to air pollution and other covariates. It is well known that regression models solely based on area-level data are subject to ecological bias, i.e., they may provide a biased estimate of the association at the individual-level, due to within-area variability of the data. In this paper, we augment county-level COVID-19 mortality data with a nationally representative sample of individual-level covariate information from the American Community Survey along with high-resolution estimates of PM2.5 concentrations obtained from a validated model and aggregated to the census tract for the contiguous United States. We apply a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to combine county-, census tract-, and individual-level data to ultimately draw inference about individual-level associations between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality for COVID-19. By analyzing data prior to the Emergency Use Authorization for the COVID-19 vaccines we found that an increase of 1 μg/m3 in long-term PM2.5 exposure, averaged over the 17-year period 2000-2016, is associated with a 3.3% (95% credible interval, 2.8 to 3.8%) increase in an individual's odds of COVID-19 mortality. Code to reproduce our study is publicly available at https://github.com/NSAPH/PM_COVID_ecoinference. The results confirm previous evidence of an association between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and COVID-19 mortality and strengthen the case for tighter regulations on harmful air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.

Pliocene hominins from East Turkana were associated with mesic environments in a semiarid basin

During the middle Pliocene (∼3.8–3.2 Ma), both Australopithecus afarensis and Kenyanthropus platyops are known from the Turkana Basin, but between 3.60 and 3.44 Ma, most hominin fossils are found on the west side of Lake Turkana. Here, we describe a new hominin locality (ET03-166/168, Area 129) from the east side of the lake, in the Lokochot Member of the Koobi Fora Formation (3.60–3.44 Ma). To reconstruct the paleoecology of the locality and its surroundings, we combine information from sedimentology, the relative abundance of associated mammalian fauna, phytoliths, and stable isotopes from plant wax biomarkers, pedogenic carbonates, and fossil tooth enamel. The combined evidence provides a detailed view of the local paleoenvironment occupied by these Pliocene hominins, where a biodiverse community of primates, including hominins, and other mammals inhabited humid, grassy woodlands in a fluvial floodplain setting. Between <3.596 and 3.44 Ma, increases in woody vegetation were, at times, associated with increases in arid-adapted grasses. This suggests that Pliocene vegetation included woody species that were resilient to periods of prolonged aridity, resembling vegetation structure in the Turkana Basin today, where arid-adapted woody plants are a significant component of the ecosystem. Pedogenic carbonates indicate more woody vegetation than other vegetation proxies, possibly due to differences in temporospatial scale and ecological biases in preservation that should be accounted for in future studies. These new hominin fossils and associated multiproxy paleoenvironmental indicators from a single locale through time suggest that early hominin species occupied a wide range of habitats, possibly including wetlands within semiarid landscapes. Local-scale paleoecological evidence from East Turkana supports regional evidence that middle Pliocene eastern Africa may have experienced large-scale, climate-driven periods of aridity. This information extends our understanding of hominin environments beyond the limits of simple wooded, grassy, or mosaic environmental descriptions.

Association between pertussis vaccination coverage and other sociodemographic factors and pertussis incidence using surveillance data

Routine vaccination with pertussis vaccines has been successful in driving down pertussis mortality and morbidity globally. Despite high vaccination coverage, countries such as Australia, USA, and UK have experienced increase in pertussis activity over the last few decades. This may be due to local pockets of low vaccination coverage that result in persistence of pertussis in the population and occasionally lead to large outbreaks. The objective of this study was to characterize the association between pertussis vaccination coverage and sociodemographic factors and pertussis incidence at the school district level in King County, Washington, USA. We used monthly pertussis incidence data for all ages reported to the Public Health Seattle and King County between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2017 to obtain school district level pertussis incidence. We obtained immunization data from the Washington State Immunization Information System to estimate school-district level vaccination coverage as proportion of 19–35 month old children fully vaccinated with ≥4 doses of the Diphtheria-Tetanus-acellular-Pertussis (DTaP) vaccine in a school district. We used two methods to quantify the effects of vaccination coverage on pertussis incidence: an ecological vaccine model and an endemic–epidemic model. Even though the effect of vaccination is modeled differently in the two approaches, both models can be used to estimate the association between vaccination coverage and pertussis incidence. Using the ecological vaccine model, we estimated the vaccine effectiveness of 4 doses of Diphtheria-Tetanus-acellular-Pertussis vaccine to be 83% (95% credible interval: 63%, 95%). In the endemic–epidemic model, under-vaccination was statistically significantly associated with epidemic risk of pertussis (adjusted Relative Risk, aRR: 2.76; 95% confidence interval: 1.44, 16.6). Household size and median income were statistically significantly associated with endemic pertussis risk. The endemic–epidemic model suffers from ecological bias, whereas the ecological vaccine model provides less biased and more interpretable estimates of epidemiological parameters, such as DTaP vaccine effectiveness, for each school district.

Influence of geospatial resolution on sociodemographic predictors of COVID-19 in Massachusetts.

When studying health risks across a large geographic region such as a state or province, researchers often assume that finer-resolution data on health outcomes and risk factors will improve inferences by avoiding ecological bias and other issues associated with geographic aggregation. However, coarser-resolution data (e.g., at the town or county-level) are more commonly publicly available and packaged for easier access, allowing for rapid analyses. The advantages and limitations of using finer-resolution data, which may improve precision at the cost of time spent gaining access and processing data, have not been considered in detail to date. We systematically examine the implications of conducting town-level mixed-effect regression analyses versus census-tract-level analyses to study sociodemographic predictors of COVID-19 in Massachusetts. In a series of negative binomial regressions, we vary the spatial resolution of the outcome, the resolution of variable selection, and the resolution of the random effect to allow for more direct comparison across models. We find stability in some estimates across scenarios, changes in magnitude, direction, and significance in others, and tighter confidence intervals on the census-tract level. Conclusions regarding sociodemographic predictors are robust when regions of high concentration remain consistent across town and census-tract resolutions. Inferences about high-risk populations may be misleading if derived from town- or county-resolution data, especially for covariates that capture small subgroups (e.g., small racial minority populations) or are geographically concentrated or skewed (e.g., % college students). Our analysis can help inform more rapid and efficient use of public health data by identifying when finer-resolution data are truly most informative, or when coarser-resolution data may be misleading.

When an A Is NOT an A in Academic Research, or How A-Journal List Metrics Inhibit Exploratory Behaviour in Academia

On account of the leverage that the Academy of Management (AOM) has, via its positioning in the highest tiers of the A-journal lists currently used to adjudicate promotions and tenure evaluations, it is urgent to assess the premises and assumptions upon which the so-called pluralist model of scholarly impact, advocated by academics with executive responsibilities in the AOM, is built. Our findings are that the pluralist model is liable to three crucial problems: ecological bias, specific knowledge and pre-emptive costs. Consistent with extant performance evaluation scholarship, promotions and tenure evaluations must build instead on: (a) a qualitative evaluation of scholarly contributions unencumbered by ordinality assumptions; (b) the narrowing of the span of control of academics, moving supervisory authority away from the line structure and back into the hands of true peers; and (c) muting the incentives that prevent academics from focusing on riskier and long-term horizon outputs, which are pillars in agreement with known accounts of how exploratory behaviour has been successfully managed at IBM, Google, the SAS Institute and Nokia, to name but a few cases. JEL Codes: 123, O31

Vegetation and climate change at the southern margin of the Neo-Tethys during the Cenomanian (Late Cretaceous): Evidence from Egypt.

Changes in terrestrial vegetation during the mid-Cretaceous and their link to climate and environmental change are poorly understood. In this study, we use plant macrofossils and analysis of fossil pollen and spores from the Western Desert, Egypt, to assess temporal changes in plant communities during the Cenomanian. The investigated strata have relatively diverse sporomorph assemblages, which reflect the nature of parent vegetation. Specifically, the palynofloras represent ferns, conifers, monosulcate pollen producers, Gnetales, and a diverse group of angiosperms. Comparisons of both, dispersed palynoflora and plant macrofossils reveal different characteristics of the palaeoflora owing to a plethora of taphonomical and ecological biases including the depositional environment, production levels, and discrepancies between different plant organs. A combination of detailed records of sporomorphs, leaves, and charcoal from the studied successions provide new understandings of the palaeoclimate and palaeogeography during the Cenomanian and Albian-Cenomanian transition in Egypt. The mixed composition of the palynofloral assemblages reflects the presence of different depositional situations with a weak marine influence, as evidenced by a minor dinoflagellate cysts component. The local vegetation comprised various categories including herbaceous groups including ferns and eudicots, fluvial, open environments, and xeric arboreal communities dominated by Cheirolepidiaceae and perhaps including drought- and/or salt-tolerating ferns (Anemiaceae) and other gymnosperms (Araucariaceae, Ginkgoales, Cycadales, and Gnetales) as well as angiosperms. The presence of riparian and freshwater wetland communities favouring aquatic and/or hygrophilous ferns (of Salviniaceae and Marsileaceae), is noted. The wide variation of depositional settings derived from the palynological data may be attributed to a prevalent occurrence of producers in local vegetation during the early Cenomanian of Egypt. For the purpose of this work on the studied Bahariya Formation and its equivalent rock units, where iconic dinosaurs and other fossil fauna roamed, we attempt to improve the understanding of Egypt's Cenomanian climate, which is reconstructed as generally warm and humid punctuated by phases of considerably drier conditions of varying duration.

Trends in the direction of global plant invasion biology research over the past two decades.

Invasive plants are a growing ecological problem worldwide, but biases and patterns within invasive plant research may affect our understanding of invasive plant ecology. In this study, we analyzed 458 invasive plant papers sampled from the two journals dedicated entirely to the field of invasion biology, i.e., Biological Invasions and Neobiota. From these papers, we collected information on geographic coverage, climate, habitat, taxonomic coverage, plant functional type, and research topic to examine trends across a 21-year time period from 1999 to 2020. Our analysis found that invasive plant research was consistently biased toward temperate grassland and forest ecosystems particularly within the Americas, Europe, and Australia, and toward smaller, herbaceous invasive plant species (i.e., forbs, grasses, and shrubs), with an increase in interest in invasive nitrogen-fixing legumes over time. Our analysis also identified "hot" research topics in invasive plant research at specific time periods, such as a peak in the use of genetic analysis methods in 2014-2015 and a more recent focus on plant physiological and functional traits. While current models, concepts, and understanding of plant invasion ecology are still driven by such biases, this has been partially offset by recent increased research in understudied systems, as well as increasing awareness that plant invasion is heavily affected by their growth types, physiological traits, and soil interactions. As the field of invasion biology becomes ever increasingly important over time, focusing invasive plant research on understudied ecosystems and plant groups will allow us to develop a more holistic understanding of the ecology of invasive plants. In particular, given the outsized importance of the tropics to global biodiversity, the threats they face, and the dearth of studies, it is of critical importance that more invasive plant research is conducted within the tropics to develop a more globally representative understanding of invasive plant ecology.