ECB's Asset Purchase Research Articles

Shifts in the portfolio holdings of euro area investors in the midst of COVID‐19: Looking‐through investment funds

AbstractWe study the impact of the COVID‐19 shock on the portfolio exposures of euro area investors. The analysis “looks‐through” holdings of investment fund shares to first gauge euro area investors' full exposures to global debt securities and listed shares by sector at end‐2019 and to subsequently analyse the portfolio shifts in the first and second quarters of 2020. We show heterogeneous patterns across asset classes and sectors, but also across less and more vulnerable euro area countries. In particular, we find a broad‐based rebalancing towards domestic sovereign debt at the expense of extra‐euro area sovereigns in the first quarter of 2020, consistent with heightened home bias, which however levelled off in the second quarter. On the contrary, for listed shares we find that euro area investors rebalanced away from domestic towards extra‐euro area securities in both the first and the second quarter, which may be associated with better relative foreign stock market performance. Many of these shifts were only due to indirect holdings, corroborating the importance of investment funds in assessing investors' exposures—especially for households, insurance companies and pension funds—in particular in times of large shocks. We also confirm the important intermediation role played by investment funds in an analysis focusing on the large‐scale portfolio rebalancing observed between 2015 and 2017 during the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme.

Is the Bond Market Competitive? Evidence From the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme

Is the Bond Market Competitive? Evidence From the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme

The pandemic emergency asset purchase and the sovereign bond market connectedness

We examined the extent to which the biggest euro area sovereign bond markets are connected during the 2017-2020 period. Accordingly, we used the recent Gabaue (2020)'s approach viewed as an alternative to Diebold and Yilmaz's volatility connectedness methodology. We find that such markets are considerably connected during the whole period and the spillovers are relatively time varying. The results also show that the Spanish bond market is the primary net transmitter of shocks, followed by the Italian bond market, while the markets for Germany and France are the main net receivers. Second, we highlight some contribution of ECB's asset purchase and other monetary policy announcements to bilateral spillovers. Also, some pronounced spillovers are found to be generated from the monetary policy in US. Finally, the effect differs widely across bilateral linkages in terms of sign and magnitudes. A likely explanation is that investors started discriminating more through markets.

The impact of the ECB's asset purchase programme on core and peripheral sovereign yields and its transmission channels

Using data from June 2014 to March 2018, this paper analyses the transmission channels of the announcement effects of the ECB's asset purchase programme (APP) on core and peripheral sovereign yields at different maturities. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to study in as much detail these transmission channels. Our results show these effects operate through different channels, and their magnitude is larger the longer the maturity. For the ECB's APP, we find evidence that when policy is more expansionary than expected, yields drop through a signalling, a preferred-habitat and a duration premium channel; when policy is more contractionary than expected yields rise via these channels. We also report important credit and liquidity channel effects for peripheral markets: these are very significant both for expansionary and contractionary surprises, and they have the expected direction – expansionary surprises lead to lower yields through these channels and contractionary surprises lead to higher ones. On another hand credit and liquidity effects for core markets are symmetric to the peripheral markets' and our paper is the first to empirically identify and quantify the impact of two different quantitative easing (QE) factors, one that is related to overall stimulus and another one that may differentially affect sovereign yields. We also confirm previous findings about non-linearity of asset price responses, since although the direction of effects for expansionary and contractionary surprises is usually different its magnitude is generally not.

The Dynamic Effects of the ECB’s Asset Purchases: A Survey-Based Identification

This paper estimates the dynamic effects of the ECB's asset purchase programme (APP) using a proxy structural vector autoregression. We construct a novel proxy for structural APP shocks as unexpected changes in the size of additional purchases announced by the ECB. Unexpected changes are inferred from public expectations released in quantitative surveys just before monetary policy announcements. The results consistently show that innovations to APP have expansionary effects on both output and prices: an immediate increase in asset purchases of one percent of GDP leads to a maximum impact in industrial production and consumer prices by 0.15 percent and 0.06 percent, respectively. Overall, APP shocks account for less than a fifth of the long-run macroeconomic variability. Finally, our counterfactual analyses indicate that APP and its successive recalibrations were central in supporting inflation. For example, we find inflation would have fallen into negative territory without December 2015 and March 2016 APP recalibrations.

Shifts in the Portfolio Holdings of Euro Area Investors in the Midst of COVID-19: Looking-Through Investment Funds

We study the impact of the COVID-19 shock on the portfolio exposures of euro area investors. The analysis “looks-through” holdings of investment fund shares to first gauge euro area investors' full exposures to global debt securities and listed shares by sector at end-2019 and to subsequently analyse the portfolio shifts in the first and second quarters of 2020. We show important heterogeneous patterns across asset classes and sectors, but also across euro area less and more vulnerable countries. In particular, we find a broad-based rebalancing towards domestic sovereign debt at the expense of extra-euro area sovereigns, consistent with heightened home bias. These patterns were strongly driven by indirect holdings – via investment funds – especially for insurance companies and pension funds, but levelled off in the second quarter. On the contrary, for listed shares we find that euro area investors rebalanced away from domestic towards extra-euro area securities in both the first and the second quarter, which may be associated with better relative foreign stock market performance. Many of these shifts were only due to indirect holdings, corroborating the importance of investment funds in assessing investors' exposures via securities, in particular in times of large shocks. We also confirm the important intermediation role played by investment funds in an analysis focusing on the large-scale portfolio rebalancing observed between 2015 and 2017 during the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme.

Funding liquidity, credit risk and unconventional monetary policy in the Euro area: a GVAR approach

This paper investigates the transmission of funding liquidity shocks, credit risk shocks and unconventional monetary policy within the Euro area. To this aim, a financial GVAR model is estimated for Germany, France, Italy and Spain on monthly data over the period 2006-2017. The interactions between repo markets, sovereign bonds and banks' CDS spreads are analyzed, explicitly accounting for the country-specific effects of the ECB's asset purchase programmes. Impulse response analysis signals core-periphery heterogeneity and persistent flight to quality. A simulated reduction in any ECB programme ultimately results in rising yields and bank CDS spreads in Italy and Spain, as well as in falling repo trade volumes and rising repo rates in all four countries.

International Capital Flows at the Security Level – Evidence from the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme

We analyse euro area investors' portfolio rebalancing during the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme at the security level. Our empirical analysis shows that euro area investors (in particular investment funds and households) actively rebalanced away from securities targeted under the Public Sector Purchase Programme and other euro-denominated debt securities, towards foreign debt instruments, including `closest substitutes', i.e. certain sovereign debt securities issued by non-euro area advanced countries. This rebalancing was particularly strong during the first six quarters of the programme. Our analysis also reveals marked differences across sectors as well as country groups within the euro area, suggesting that quantitative easing has induced heterogeneous portfolio shifts.

On the credit and exchange rate channels of central bank asset purchases in a monetary union

Throughout the euro area crisis, financial fragmentation across jurisdictions became a prime concern for the single monetary policy. The ECB broadened the scope of its instruments and enacted a series of non-standard measures to engineer an appropriate degree of policy accommodation. The transmission of these measures through the currency union remained highly dependent on the financial structure and conditions prevailing in various regions. This paper explores the country-specific macroeconomic transmission of selected non-standard measures from the ECB using a global DSGE model with a rich financial sector: we extend the six-region multi-country model of Darracq Pariès et al. (2016), introducing credit and exchange rate channels for central bank asset purchases. The portfolio rebalancing frictions are calibrated to match the sovereign yield and exchange rate responses after ECB's Asset Purchase Programme (APP) first announcement. The domestic transmission of the APP through the credit intermediation chain is significant and quite heterogenous across the largest euro area countries. The introduction of global portfolio frictions on euro area government bond holdings by international investors opens up for a larger depreciation of the euro. The interaction between international and domestic channels affect the magnitude and the cross-country distribution of the APP impact.

International Capital Flows at the Security Level: Evidence from the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme

We analyse euro area investors' portfolio rebalancing during the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme at the security level. Based on net transactions of domestic and foreign securities, we observe euro area sectors' capital flows into individual securities, cleaned from valuation effects. Our empirical analysis – which accounts for security-level characteristics – shows that euro area investors (in particular investment funds and households) actively rebalanced away from securities targeted under the Public Sector Purchase Programme and other euro-denominated debt securities, towards foreign debt instruments, including ‘closest substitutes’, i.e. certain sovereign debt securities issued by non-euro area advanced countries. This rebalancing was particularly strong during the first six quarters of the programme. Our analysis also reveals marked differences across sectors as well as country groups within the euro area, suggesting that quantitative easing has induced heterogeneous portfolio shifts.

International Capital Flows at the Security Level - Evidence from the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme

We analyse euro area investors' portfolio rebalancing during the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme at the security level. Based on net transactions of domestic and foreign securities, we observe euro area sectors' capital flows into individual securities, cleaned from valuation effects. Our empirical analysis – which accounts for security-level characteristics – shows that euro area investors (in particular investment funds and households) actively rebalanced away from securities targeted under the Public Sector Purchase Programme and other euro-denominated debt securities, towards foreign debt instruments, including ‘closest substitutes’, i.e. certain sovereign debt securities issued by non-euro area advanced countries. This rebalancing was particularly strong during the first six quarters of the programme. Our analysis also reveals marked differences across sectors as well as country groups within the euro area, suggesting that quantitative easing has induced heterogeneous portfolio shifts. JEL Classification: F21, F42, E52, G15

The SER Spread Under the ECB Quantitative Easing

This paper discusses the effects of the ECB's asset purchase programmes (APPs) on the SER spread, while the main focus is given to detail intraday analysis of implementation of the Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP). The SER spread is perceived as an important indicator of trust in the Eurozone and its elevated level normally signals distortion and mistrust among commercial banks with a power to spill over into the whole financial sector. Recent development on markets and especially within monetary policy in the Eurozone could have impaired the ability of the SER spread to act as a proxy for global systemic risk. The SER spread in this study was constructed and calculated using relevant European financial data and the consequent analysis was made on intraday and high-frequency (HF) 2015-2017 data. The ECB's APP, mainly PSPP, together with other instruments of monetary policy have impact on both legs of the SER spread and this paper tries to identify and quantify the degree of this effect by detailed HF market data analysis. HF intraday approach analysis is also being implemented in order to identify which of the SER spread was decisive in determining the SER spread change in the first three years of the PSPP implementation. Whether it was the sovereign bond-based leg directly affected by the ECB's PSPP purchases or the interbank lending / STIR-based leg.

The financial market effects of the ECB's asset purchase programs

The European Central Bank's asset purchase programs, while intended to stabilize the economy, may have unintended side effects on financial stability. This paper aims at gauging the effects on financial markets, the banking sector, and lending to non-financial firms. Using a structural vector autoregression analysis, we find a positive effect on output and, after some delay, also on prices in Germany. At the same time, financial stress increases significantly, driven by stock market volatility, higher liquidity premiums and contagion risks. Bank lending in Germany and in the euro area periphery expands, even though borrowing does not become cheaper. This might indicate that more credit is extended to riskier borrowers.

On the Credit and Exchange Rate Channels of Central Bank Asset Purchases in a Monetary Union

Through the euro area crisis, financial fragmentation across jurisdictions became a prime concern for the single monetary policy. The ECB broadened the scope of its instruments and enacted a series of non-standard measures to engineer an appropriate degree of policy accommodation. The transmission of these measures through the currency union remained highly dependent on the financial structure and conditions prevailing in various regions. This paper explores the country-specific macroeconomic transmission of selected non-standard measures from the ECB using a global DSGE model with a rich financial sector: we extend the six-region multi-country model of Darracq Paries et al. (2016), introducing credit and exchange rate channels for central bank asset purchases. The portfolio rebalancing frictions are calibrated to match the sovereign yield and exchange rate responses after ECB's Asset Purchase Programme (APP) first announcement. The domestic transmission of the APP through the credit intermediation chain is significant and quite heterogeneous across the largest euro area countries. The introduction of global portfolio frictions on euro area government bond holdings by international investors opens up for a larger depreciation of the euro. The interaction between international and domestic channels affect the magnitude and the cross-country distribution of the APP impact.

Unconventional Monetary Policy, Bank Lending, and Security Holdings: The Yield-Induced Portfolio Rebalancing Channel

Exploiting a granular dataset of banks' security holdings I assess the impact of unconventional monetary policy on bank lending and security holdings. Using a difference-in-differences regression setup and holding the security composition of each bank constant at its level in January 2014, well in advance of an anticipation of the ECB's asset purchase program (APP), this paper provides evidence for the presence of a yield-induced portfolio rebalancing channel: Banks experiencing a higher average yield decline of their securities portfolio - induced by unconventional expansionary monetary policy - increase their real sector lending more strongly relative to other banks. The effect is stronger for banks facing many reinvestment decisions. Moreover, I find that banks with a higher average yield decline reduce their overall investments in securities more intensely, especially in those securities that had larger valuation gains. These novel findings suggest that banks target a specific yield level and shift their investments from the securities to the (higher-yielding) credit portfolio. Making use of data on bank-specific TLTRO uptakes, my results do not seem to be driven by alternative, liquidity-driven transmission channels. (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Unconventional Monetary Policy, Bank Lending, and Security Holdings: The Yield-Induced Portfolio Rebalancing Channel

Exploiting a granular dataset of banks' security holdings I assess the impact of unconventional monetary policy on bank lending and security holdings. Using a difference-in-differences regression setup and holding the security composition of each bank constant at its level in January 2014, well in advance of an anticipation of the ECB's asset purchase program (APP), this paper provides evidence for the presence of a yield-induced portfolio rebalancing channel: Banks experiencing a higher average yield decline of their securities portfolio - induced by unconventional expansionary monetary policy - increase their real sector lending more strongly relative to other banks. The effect is stronger for banks facing many reinvestment decisions. Moreover, I find that banks with a higher average yield decline reduce their overall investments in securities more intensely, especially in those securities that had larger valuation gains. These novel findings suggest that banks target a specific yield level and shift their investments from the securities to the (higher-yielding) credit portfolio. Making use of data on bank-specific TLTRO uptakes, my results do not seem to be driven by alternative, liquidity-driven transmission channels.

The Financial Market Effects of the ECB's Asset Purchase Programs

The European Central Bank's asset purchase programs, while intended to stabilize the economy, may have unintended side effects on financial stability. This paper aims at gauging the effects on financial markets, the banking sector, and lending to non-financial firms. Using a structural vector autoregression analysis, we find both in the euro area and in Germany a positive effect on output, while prices do not respond significantly. Asset purchases reduce financial stress, but this beneficial effect is overturned in the medium run. In Germany, implicit firm default rates rise, while loan write-offs by banks decrease. This could point to an avoidance of balance sheet repair in the financial sector.

Sectoral Sales of Government Securities During the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme

The transmission channels of quantitative easing programmes partly depend on which sectors sell the securities that the central bank purchases. This note examines the behaviour of the main euro area sectors in response to the public sector leg of the ECB’s extended asset purchase (APP) programme. For each sector we compare realised net flows of government securities to those that would have occurred in the absence of the programme. We find that most sales are attributable to sectors other than euro area banks, with non-euro area residents standing out as the most responsive sector. We discuss the implications of this finding for the transmission of the QE policy in the euro area.

Spillovers of the ECB's non-standard monetary policy into CESEE economies

In this paper we provide evidence that ECB's asset purchase programmes spill over into CESEE countries contributing to easing their financial conditions, both in the short- and in the long-term through different transmission channels. In the short run, a selected number of financial variables in CESEE markets appear to respond to the news related to ECB non-standard policies, moving in the expected direction. On a longer-term horizon, we found that that portfolio and banking capital inflows towards CESEE economies were affected by announcements of ECB's asset purchase programmes and actual asset purchases, pointing to the existence of a portfolio rebalancing and a (banking) liquidity channels in the latter case.

Global financial market impact of the announcement of the ECB's asset purchase programme

We estimate the announcement effects of the ECB's asset purchase programme (APP) on the euro exchange rate, global equity prices and bond yields. We find that the APP announcement caused a broad-based depreciation of the euro by signalling that the ECB's future monetary policy stance will remain accommodative. At the same time, the APP announcement boosted equity prices around the world by supporting investor confidence and reducing the risk of deflation and persistent stagnation in the euro area. Exchange rates appreciated more strongly vis-à-vis the euro in response to APP-related news for countries which are more integrated with the rest of the world overall, which exhibit less bilateral trade and financial integration with the euro area, which are under a more flexible exchange rate regime, and which are perceived to be more risky. Finally, we do not find any evidence that the APP announcement led to an increase in portfolios flows to emerging market economies. Quite the opposite, the ECB's APP seems to have induced a re-balancing by global investors out of emerging into advanced economies’ financial markets.