Ebola Response Team Research Articles

Using real-time modelling to inform the 2017 Ebola outbreak response in DR Congo

Important policy questions during infections disease outbreaks include: i) How effective are particular interventions?; ii) When can resource-intensive interventions be removed? We used mathematical modelling to address these questions during the 2017 Ebola outbreak in Likati Health Zone, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Eight cases occurred before 15 May 2017, when the Ebola Response Team (ERT; co-ordinated by the World Health Organisation and DRC Ministry of Health) was deployed to reduce transmission. We used a branching process model to estimate that, pre-ERT arrival, the reproduction number was R=1.49\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$R=1.49$$\\end{document} (95% credible interval (0.67, 2.81)\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$({{{{\\mathrm{0.67,2.81}}}}})$$\\end{document}). The risk of further cases occurring without the ERT was estimated to be 0.97 (97%). However, no cases materialised, suggesting that the ERT’s measures were effective. We also estimated the risk of withdrawing the ERT in real-time. By the actual ERT withdrawal date (2 July 2017), the risk of future cases without the ERT was only 0.01, indicating that the ERT withdrawal decision was safe. We evaluated the sensitivity of our results to the estimated R\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$R$$\\end{document} value and considered different criteria for determining the ERT withdrawal date. This research provides an extensible modelling framework that can be used to guide decisions about when to relax interventions during future outbreaks.

The pedagogical power of context: extending the Epidemiology of Eyam

This paper describes the further development of the Epidemiology of Eyam project at Winchester College since the publication of our previous paper (French et al 2019 Phys. Educ. 54 045008). A much wider cadre of students have been involved with this recent phase of the study, and we have also benefitted from a sabbatical collaboration with Oxford University Mathematical Institute. It is hoped that the research presented here can be used as a case study for an Extended Project Qualification (EPQ) or equivalent in a range of schools around the UK and worldwide. We feel that a project such as this, with a strong humanities and public health rooted context, could incentivise students of mathematics and sciences to participate in inter-disciplinary teams over an educationally significant period, and offer an opportunity to develop vital independent research skills that are required at University, but are often difficult to experience in a School context. The main educational goal of our previous paper was to provide an suitable context to incentivise the introduction of Calculus ideas. In this paper we assume a slightly higher level of mathematical skill, and aim to present a more comprehensive analysis of the epidemiological model that we will refer to as the 'Eyam Equations.' We describe a 'semi-analytic' solution, and make the connection to the approximation of Kermack and McKendrick (Kermack and McKendrick 1927 Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 115 700–21) which held sway for much of the early twentieth century. We revisit the Eyam 1660s plague data of William Mompesson, and also apply the model to Ebola data collected in Liberia during the 2014–16 epidemic in West Africa. Motivated by uncertainty in the size of the 'at-risk' Susceptible population, we re-parameterize the model in terms of alternative inputs which enable a curve-fitting mechanism to be conducted more efficiently, with a much more tightly bounded range of possible parameter values. In addition to a spreadsheet model, we have created a software application in the MATLAB environment which has dynamic tools that could potentially enable a sensible curve fit to be calculated very rapidly in response to new data. From a time series describing the Infective population of the 2014–16 Liberia Ebola epidemic, we can predict Infective I(t), Susceptible and Dead populations, calculate the associated total population size , calculate the Kendall Susceptible threshold , and hence the Basic Reproduction Number . For the Liberia Ebola data, these are: . Note this suggests that out of an ‘at risk’ population of , about 75% may ultimately have been infected by the Ebola virus. In the WHO Ebola Response Team report (WHO Ebola Response Roadmap Situation Report), for the 2014–16 Liberia outbreak.

88th Annual Georgia Public Health Association Meeting & Conference Report

The 86th annual meeting of the Georgia Public Health Association (GPHA) and joint conference with the Southern Health Association was held in Atlanta, Georgia, on April 13-14, 2015, with pre-conference (April 12th) and post-conference (April 14th) Executive Board meetings. As Georgia's leading forum for public health researchers, practitioners, and students, the annual meeting of the GPHA brings together participants from across the state to explore recent developments in the field and to exchange techniques, tools, and experiences. Historically, the GPHA conference has been held in Savannah (n=24); Jekyll Island (n=20); Atlanta (n=16); Augusta (n=4); and Gainesville (n=1). There was no annual meeting during the early years (1929-1936); during World War II (1941-1943 and 1945); and for four years during the 1980s. Between 2006 and 2010, GPHA held one-day annual meetings and business sessions with educational workshops. Several new initiatives were highlighted as part of this year's conference. These included a "move and groove" physical activity lounge, registration scholarships for students with a dedicated meet-and-greet reception, an expanded exhibit hall, presentation and approval of three resolutions (related to healthy foods at official activities and events; weapons at official activities and events; and memorials), and approval of the 2015 legislative policy positions and amended association bylaws. The theme for the conference was Advocacy in Action for Public Health. Specifically, the program addressed ensuring access to care; protecting funding for core programs, services, and infrastructure; eliminating health disparities; and addressing key public health issues important to the state of Georgia. One hundred and nine (109) abstracts were submitted for peer review; 36 were accepted for poster and 40 for workshop presentations. Four plenary sessions with keynote speakers covered the intersection between advocacy and policy, Georgia's response to the Ebola crisis, palliative care, and essentials of advocacy in action for public health. Concurrent workshops focused on Board of Health training, public health accreditation, capacity building, collaboration, patient-centered outcomes, synthetic cannabinoid use, the HIV care continuum, use of data for informed decision making, environmental threats, organizational development, epidemiology, policy, and regulation. Thirty-two (32) awards were presented, including Lawmaker of the Year Award to Governor Nathan and First Lady Sandra Deal for their active and engaged role in promoting public health in Georgia; and the Sellers-McCroan Award to Commissioner Brenda Fitzgerald, Georgia Department of Public Health (DPH) State Health Officer, for her leadership of the Georgia Ebola Response Team and leadership of the newly formed department. The conference attracted 569 registrants primarily through pre-registration (n=561) with limited onsite registration (n=8). For this year's conference, there was a significant increase in attendance (36%) and exhibitors (33%) relative to 2014. Of registrants reporting GPHA section participation, representation included: academic (5%); administration (10%); boards of health (13%); career development (15%); emergency preparedness (2%); epidemiology (5%); health education and promotion (2%); information technology (2%); maternal and child health (3%); medical/dental (3%); nursing (10%); nutrition (<1%); and other/no record (15%). There was 100% participation in the conference from the state's 18 public health districts. The conference evaluation completed by a representative sample of registrants indicated areas of potential improvement as: starting sessions on time, using electronic and social media for the conference agenda/syllabus, and decreasing workshop sessions to 45 minutes. Most rated the conference as "good" or "excellent."

Addressing Infection Prevention and Control in the First U.S. Community Hospital to Care for Patients With Ebola Virus Disease: Context for National Recommendations and Future Strategies.

Health care personnel (HCP) caring for patients with Ebola virus disease (EVD) are at increased risk for infection with the virus. In 2014, a Texas hospital became the first U.S. community hospital to care for a patient with EVD; 2 nurses were infected while providing care. This article describes infection control measures developed to strengthen the hospital's capacity to safely diagnose and treat patients with EVD. After admission of the first patient with EVD, a multidisciplinary team from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) joined the hospital's infection preventionists to implement a system of occupational safety and health controls for direct patient care, handling of clinical specimens, and managing regulated medical waste. Existing engineering and administrative controls were strengthened. The personal protective equipment (PPE) ensemble was standardized, HCP were trained on donning and doffing PPE, and a system of trained observers supervising PPE donning and doffing was implemented. Caring for patients with EVD placed substantial demands on a community hospital. The experiences of the authors and others informed national policies for the care of patients with EVD and protection of HCP, including new guidance for PPE, a rapid system for deploying CDC staff to assist hospitals ("Ebola Response Team"), and a framework for a tiered approach to hospital preparedness. The designation of regional Ebola treatment centers and the establishment of the National Ebola Training and Education Center address the need for HCP to be prepared to safely care for patients with EVD and other high-consequence emerging infectious diseases.

Ebola Virus Disease Simulation Case Series: Patient With Ebola Virus Disease in the Prodromal Phase of Illness (Scenario 1), the "Wet" Gastrointestinal Phase of Illness (Scenario 2), and the Late, Critically Ill Phase of Disease (Scenario 3).

As part of an international response to the Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak, the US Department of Defense has deployed thousands of personnel to help train and augment international health care workers. The transmission risk of this deadly virus to health care workers has been extreme, demonstrating the importance of safe practices while caring for these patients. Medical simulation training is well recognized as an integral component for disease outbreak preparedness. Therefore, the US Government created a program of instruction that outlines a formalized EVD training program, using high-fidelity simulation, which projects both an understanding of the disease and its transmission risks. Two 5-day training courses were established to provide training to the 65-member Department of Defense Ebola Response Team, which would be activated during a stateside Ebola outbreak. This training consisted of Ebola-specific protocols, personal protective equipment familiarization, and scenario-based certification for physicians, nurses, and public health trainers. Simulation was used to replicate the work environment inside an Ebola treatment unit. Three comprehensive clinical scenarios covering a wide spectrum of EVD presentations were designed around details of published cases to provide the most realistic and relevant EVD training available. The authors conducted 10 iterations of the 3 EVD clinical scenarios totaling more than 1100 hours of simulation training. Quality practical exercises to include specialized task performance and collective teamwork training relied heavily on dedicated facilities and realistic medical simulation resulting in valuable lessons learned. In future iterations, these characteristics would be imperative to a successful training course.

AAAS annual meeting demonstrates the critical value of global scientific collaboration

AAAS annual meeting demonstrates the critical value of global scientific collaboration

Can Ebola virus become endemic in the human population?

Can Ebola virus become endemic in the human population?

86TH Annual Georgia Public Health Association Meeting &amp; Conference Report

The 86th annual meeting of the Georgia Public Health Association (GPHA) and joint conference with the Southern Health Association was held in Atlanta, Georgia, on April 13-14, 2015, with pre-conference (April 12th) and post-conference (April 14th) Executive Board meetings. As Georgia's leading forum for public health researchers, practitioners, and students, the annual meeting of the GPHA brings together participants from across the state to explore recent developments in the field and to exchange techniques, tools, and experiences. Historically, the GPHA conference has been held in Savannah (n=24); Jekyll Island (n=20); Atlanta (n=16); Augusta (n=4); and Gainesville (n=1). There was no annual meeting during the early years (1929-1936); during World War II (1941-1943 and 1945); and for four years during the 1980s. Between 2006 and 2010, GPHA held one-day annual meetings and business sessions with educational workshops. Several new initiatives were highlighted as part of this year's conference. These included a "move and groove" physical activity lounge, registration scholarships for students with a dedicated meet-and-greet reception, an expanded exhibit hall, presentation and approval of three resolutions (related to healthy foods at official activities and events; weapons at official activities and events; and memorials), and approval of the 2015 legislative policy positions and amended association bylaws. The theme for the conference was Advocacy in Action for Public Health. Specifically, the program addressed ensuring access to care; protecting funding for core programs, services, and infrastructure; eliminating health disparities; and addressing key public health issues important to the state of Georgia. One hundred and nine (109) abstracts were submitted for peer review; 36 were accepted for poster and 40 for workshop presentations. Four plenary sessions with keynote speakers covered the intersection between advocacy and policy, Georgia's response to the Ebola crisis, palliative care, and essentials of advocacy in action for public health. Concurrent workshops focused on Board of Health training, public health accreditation, capacity building, collaboration, patient-centered outcomes, synthetic cannabinoid use, the HIV care continuum, use of data for informed decision making, environmental threats, organizational development, epidemiology, policy, and regulation. Thirty-two (32) awards were presented, including Lawmaker of the Year Award to Governor Nathan and First Lady Sandra Deal for their active and engaged role in promoting public health in Georgia; and the Sellers-McCroan Award to Commissioner Brenda Fitzgerald, Georgia Department of Public Health (DPH) State Health Officer, for her leadership of the Georgia Ebola Response Team and leadership of the newly formed department. The conference attracted 569 registrants primarily through pre-registration (n=561) with limited onsite registration (n=8). For this year's conference, there was a significant increase in attendance (36%) and exhibitors (33%) relative to 2014. Of registrants reporting GPHA section participation, representation included: academic (5%); administration (10%); boards of health (13%); career development (15%); emergency preparedness (2%); epidemiology (5%); health education and promotion (2%); information technology (2%); maternal and child health (3%); medical/dental (3%); nursing (10%); nutrition (<1%); and other/no record (15%). There was 100% participation in the conference from the state's 18 public health districts. The conference evaluation completed by a representative sample of registrants indicated areas of potential improvement as: starting sessions on time, using electronic and social media for the conference agenda/syllabus, and decreasing workshop sessions to 45 minutes. Most rated the conference as "good" or "excellent."

Modeling the 2014 Ebola Virus Epidemic - Agent-Based Simulations, Temporal Analysis and Future Predictions for Liberia and Sierra Leone.

We developed an agent-based model to investigate the epidemic dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Liberia and Sierra Leone from May 27 to December 21, 2014. The dynamics of the agent-based simulator evolve on small-world transmission networks of sizes equal to the population of each country, with adjustable densities to account for the effects of public health intervention policies and individual behavioral responses to the evolving epidemic. Based on time series of the official case counts from the World Health Organization (WHO), we provide estimates for key epidemiological variables by employing the so-called Equation-Free approach. The underlying transmission networks were characterized by rather random structures in the two countries with densities decreasing by ~19% from the early (May 27-early August) to the last period (mid October-December 21). Our estimates for the values of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate, are very close to the ones reported by the WHO Ebola response team during the early period of the epidemic (until September 14) that were calculated based on clinical data. Specifically, regarding the effective reproductive number Re, our analysis suggests that until mid October, Re was above 2.3 in both countries; from mid October to December 21, Re dropped well below unity in Liberia, indicating a saturation of the epidemic, while in Sierra Leone it was around 1.9, indicating an ongoing epidemic. Accordingly, a ten-week projection from December 21 estimated that the epidemic will fade out in Liberia in early March; in contrast, our results flashed a note of caution for Sierra Leone since the cumulative number of cases could reach as high as 18,000, and the number of deaths might exceed 5,000, by early March 2015. However, by processing the reported data of the very last period (December 21, 2014-January 18, 2015), we obtained more optimistic estimates indicative of a remission of the epidemic in Sierra Leone, as reflected by the derived Re (~0.82, 95% CI: 0.81-0.83).

The transition from a rural to an urban environment alters expression of the human Ebola virus receptor Neiman-Pick C1: implications for the current epidemic in West Africa

The 2014 Ebola epidemic in West Africa has captured the world’s attention and has been described as a humanitarian crisis and a threat to international security by Dr. Margaret Chan, director general of the World Health Organization (Chan 2014). As of October 25th of this year, a total of 10,141 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been reported primarily in five countries, including Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sierra Leone, resulting in 4922 deaths thus far (WHO 2014a). The prediction is that without drastic control measures the number of cases and deaths could increase to thousands per week in the coming months (WHO Ebola Response Team 2014).

Ebola: worldwide dissemination risk and response priorities

Ebola: worldwide dissemination risk and response priorities