Eastern Washington Research Articles

Spatiotemporal variability and foraging behavior of bee visitors to a rare long-lived iteroparous forb, Silene spaldingii (Caryophyllaceae).

Silene spaldingii S Watson is a rare long-lived forb (Caryophyllaceae) found primarily in open native grasslands of the Inland Pacific Northwest and is putatively pollinated by one key bumble bee pollinator, Bombus fervidus (Fabricius). However, populations of bumble bees and their visitation patterns can vary dramatically, and some species are in decline including B. fervidus. Understanding the role of co-pollinators such as sweat bees (Halictidae) could be crucial as the plight of rare plants and pollinators intensifies. We collected data across three seasons (2015-2017) on the Bombus-S. spaldingii pollination system, focusing on three Key Conservation Areas in the Channeled Scablands of eastern Washington. Bee visitors to S. spaldingii were monitored and the pool-of-pollinators was surveyed with blue vane traps. Nine species of bees were observed foraging on the plant, while 2211 bees comprised of five families, 22 genera and 81 taxa were captured in blue vane traps, meaning only 11.1% of species in the pollinator pool visited S. spaldingii. Halictus tripartitus Cockerell, a sweat bee, was a common visitor to the plant, but this was the first record of visitation for several other species, including Lasioglossum buccale (Pérez) which has never before been recorded in the Americas. These sweat bees appear to vector S. spaldingii pollen, suggesting they are co-pollinators of the plant. Weather and patch characteristics affected visitation patterns and the pool-of-pollinators. We conclude that sweat bees are likely co-pollinators of S. spaldingii and that they could become increasingly important if B. fervidus populations continue to decline.

Predator-prey space use and landscape features influence movement behaviors in a large-mammal community.

Predator hunting strategies, such as stalking versus coursing behaviors, are hypothesized to influence antipredator behaviors of prey and can describe the movement behaviors of predators themselves. Predators and prey may alter their movement in relation to predator hunting modes, yet few studies have evaluated how these strategies influence movement behaviors of free-ranging animals in a multiple-predator, multiple-prey system. We fit hidden Markov models (HMM) with movement data derived from >400 GPS-collared ungulates and large predators in eastern Washington, USA. We used these models to test our hypotheses that stalking (cougars [Puma concolor]) and coursing (gray wolves [Canis lupus]) predators would exhibit different broad-scale movement behaviors consistent with their respective hunting strategies in areas that increased the likelihood of encountering or capturing ungulate prey (e.g., habitats selected by deer [Odocoileus spp.]). Similarly, we expected that broadscale movement behaviors of prey would change in response to background levels of predation risk associated with each predator's hunting strategy. We found that predators and ungulate prey adjusted their broadscale movements in response to one another's long-term patterns of habitat selection but not based on differences in predator-hunting strategies. Predators changed their movement behaviors based on the type of prey, whereas ungulates generally reduced movement in areas associated with large predators, regardless of the predator's hunting strategy. Both predator and prey movements varied in response to landscape features but not necessarily based on habitat that would facilitate specific hunting behaviors. Our results suggest that predators and prey adjust their movements at broad temporal scales in relation to long-term patterns of risk and resource distributions, potentially influencing their encounter rates with one another at finer spatiotemporal scales. Habitat features further influenced changes in movement, resulting in a complex combination of movement behaviors in multiple-predator, multiple-prey systems.

The Cycles agroecosystem model: Fundamentals, testing, and applications

Models of the soil–plant-atmosphere continuum are repositories of knowledge and gears in analytical and decision support tools applied to agroecosystems. In this paper, we present the Cycles agroecosystem model theory along with test cases and applications. Cycles combines innovations for simulating soil hydrology and biogeochemistry, including carbon and nitrogen saturation theory, with a modular software architecture. These elements enable simulating monoculture or polyculture crop sequences and associated management practices, containerizing for applications that require high-performance computing, and data assimilation at runtime. A comparison of simulated and measured daily evapotranspiration (ET) obtained with the eddy covariance method for maize (Zea mays L.) and shrub willow (Salix spp.) shows that Cycles represents well meteorological and vegetation controls of ET (root mean square error or RMSE = 0.75 mm d-1). Cycles accurately simulated differences of 150 mm in growing season ET between these two plant communities. Comparisons of modeled versus measured soil water content under soybean (Glycine max [L.] Merr.) in southeastern Pennsylvania for six soil layers at 0.1-m increments show accurate representation of water depletion and recharge (RMSE of 0.027–0.011 m3 m−3). Simulations of growth and nitrogen uptake of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in eastern Washington also highlight the model’s skill simulating processes that affect water and nutrient fluxes simultaneously. To highlight Cycles’ suitability for incorporation in high performance computing applications, we present a coupling of Cycles with an autonomous crop sequence builder (Cycles-A) in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. This system automatically identified areas for double cropping and selected the optimum combination of annual crops across the watershed. The Cycles model innovations and agroecosystem framing continue advancing the premise of making models not only dynamic knowledge repositories but useful tools for research and landscape management.

The timing of Missoula floods: Implications for the age of Grand Coulee (eastern Washington, USA)

The Channeled Scabland of eastern Washington (USA) was formed by outburst floods from glacial Lake Missoula. Despite chronological advances, the timing of erosion in the main flood channels is unresolved. In particular, it is still uncertain whether upper Grand Coulee, the largest canyon in the Channeled Scabland, was incised during or prior to the last glaciation. We report 10Be exposure ages from erratics in upper Grand Coulee, glacial Lake Columbia, and surrounding flood routes. Flood-transported boulders on the high-elevation east rim of Grand Coulee date to ca. 17−15 ka. Ages from boulders on the floor of Grand Coulee indicate later flooding at ca. 14 ka, which post-dated canyon incision and occurred after inundation of the Telford-Crab Creek scabland at ca. 15−14.5 ka. Prior hydraulic modeling and dating suggest the entrance to Grand Coulee was blocked by rock and that canyon incision was incomplete at ca. 17 ka; hence, we interpret the 17−15 ka exposure ages on the east rim to coincide with flow over a retreating cataract during canyon incision. Our results indicate incision of Grand Coulee was completed between 17 ka and 14 ka. The short duration of canyon incision suggests that glacial Lake Missoula generated some of the most erosive outburst floods in Earth’s history.

A brief history of bison zooarchaeological research in eastern Washington

In 1953 15 archaeological sites in eastern Washington State had produced remains of bison ( Bison bison). Over the following years, the growing archaeological record of bison in the area was revisited as scholars sought to determine if technology changed in response to the presence of bison, the butchering practices used to process carcasses, the demography of resident populations, the kind of activity areas with which bison remains were associated, the frequency of the animal during the Holocene, and the body size of individuals during the Holocene. In this, the study of bison remains tracks well the history of North American zooarchaeology and the history of archaeology in general. Today 70 archaeological and 10 paleontological sites are known to have produced bison remains. Restudy of the larger collections from a modern standpoint will likely reveal much about eastern Washington Holocene bison—an ecologically and biogeographically peripheral or marginal population—that has not yet been considered.

Gigaton commercial-scale carbon storage and mineralization potential in stacked Columbia River basalt reservoirs

This work presents a detailed supercritical CO2 storage resource estimation for the stacked basalt reservoirs in the Grande Ronde Basalt of the Columbia River Basalt Group in eastern Washington and Oregon. The assessment aims to derisk the commercialization potential of geologic carbon storage in basalt by leveraging both structural and mineralization trapping of CO2 in basalt. The structural closures formed by anticlinal ridges and synclinal valleys in Yakima Fold Belt are excellent physical traps to accommodate injected supercritical CO2. Rigorous hydraulic testing, well logs and simulation results from the Wallula Basalt Pilot #1 well showed the occurrence of 17 suitable permeable injection zones (up to 2,496 mD) intercalated with dense seals (∼2.6E-10 mD) in the Grand Ronde Basalt. In addition, geochemical studies showed fast reactions between supercritical CO2 and dissolved basalt minerals to form stable carbonates. Our calculation indicates up to 40 gigatons (P90) of mineralization storage resources exist in the Grande Ronde Basalt reservoirs.

Prairie soil improves wheat establishment and accelerates the developmental transition to flowering compared to agricultural soils.

Less than 1% of native prairie lands remain in the United States. Located in eastern Washington, the rare habitat called Palouse prairie was largely converted to wheat monocropping. With this conversion came numerous physical, chemical, and biological changes to the soil that may ultimately contribute to reduced wheat yields. Here, we explored how wheat (Tritcum aestivum L.) seedling establishment, plant size, and heading, signifying the developmental transition to flowering, were affected by being planted in prairie soil versus agricultural soils. We then sought to understand whether the observed effects were the result of changes to the soil microbiota due to agricultural intensification. We found that prairie soil enhanced both the probability of wheat seedling survival and heading compared to agricultural soil; however, wheat growth was largely unaffected by soil source. We did not detect effects on wheat developmental transitions or phenotype when inoculated with prairie microbes compared with agricultural microbes, but we did observe general antagonistic effects of microbes on plant size, regardless of soil source. This work indicates that agricultural intensification has affected soils in a way that changes early seedling establishment and the timing of heading for wheat, but these effects may not be caused by microbes, and instead may be caused by soil nutrient conditions.

Hazardous wildfire smoke events can alter dawn soundscapes in dry forests of central and eastern Washington, United States

As global wildfire activity increases, wildlife are facing greater exposure to hazardous smoke pollution – with unknown consequences for biodiversity. Research on the effects of smoke on wild animals is extremely limited, in part due to the inherent logistical challenges of observing how animals respond to smoke in real time. Passive acoustic monitoring may be a powerful tool to safely and effectively monitor biodiversity before, during, and after major smoke events. In this study, we used data collected from a large-scale network of bioacoustic recorders at 92 sites in central and eastern Washington state during August–September, 2019–2020 to investigate the effect of wildfire smoke on dawn soundscapes and, by extension, acoustically active wildlife. We used acoustic indices to document and characterize changes in soundscapes related to smoke exposure, including the Acoustic Complexity Index (ACI), Bioacoustic Index (BI), and Normalized Difference Soundscape Index (NDSI). Higher values of these indices likely indicate higher levels of biodiversity in our study area. We hypothesized that wildfire smoke would reduce bird vocalizations, leading to declines in ACI, BI, and NDSI at dawn, when birds are most active. We used linear and quantile regression models to test for an effect of daily exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a marker of wildfire smoke, on the mean daily values and the upper 90th percentile of each index at dawn. We also conducted a before-during-after analysis of a particularly hazardous smoke event that impacted our study area on September 12–14, 2020. We did not observe linear effects of daily PM2.5 on average or peak daily values of acoustic indices; however, we did observe a significant reduction in ACI and BI during the three-day smoke event in 2020 and in the two weeks following this air pollution episode. Our results indicate that, on average, ACI and BI were reduced by 2.7 % and 15.9 % during and 1.5 % and 11.0 % afterward, respectively. These findings add further evidence that wildfire smoke alters soundscapes, likely due to changes in the presence, abundance, or behavior of acoustically active animals. Furthermore, our study demonstrates that wildfire smoke may have delayed and/or cumulative effects on acoustically active wildlife. Our study highlights the potential for passive acoustic monitoring to document wildlife responses to smoke pollution and identify potentially relevant exposure periods.

Estimating the Burden and Distribution of Post-COVID-19 Condition in Washington State, March 2020-October 2023.

After SARS-CoV-2 infection, some people will experience long-term sequelae known as post-COVID-19 condition (PCC). Although PCC is recognized as a public health problem, estimates of the prevalence of PCC are sparse. We described a framework for estimating the incidence and prevalence of PCC by population subgroups and geography over time in Washington State. We collected data on reported COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations and estimated SARS-CoV-2 infections in Washington State from March 2020 through October 2023. The reported case data were incorporated with parameter estimates from published articles and prevalence estimates from the Household Pulse Survey into a mathematical compartmental model of PCC progression. The model used differential equations to describe how the population of people with PCC moved through the model's various stages. This framework allowed us to integrate data on age group, sex, race and ethnicity, vaccination status, and county to estimate incidence and prevalence of PCC for each subgroup. Our model indicated that 6.4% (95% CI, 5.9%-6.8%) of all adults in Washington State were experiencing PCC as of October 2023. In addition to temporal differences in PCC prevalence and incidence, we found substantial differences across age groups, race and ethnicity, and sex. Geographic heterogeneity was pronounced, with the highest rates of PCC in central and eastern Washington. Estimation of PCC prevalence is essential for addressing PCC as a public health problem. Responding to PCC will require continued surveillance, research, and dedicated financial and public health action. This analysis, accounting for heterogeneities, highlights disparities in the prevalence, incidence, and distribution of PCC in Washington State and can better guide awareness and response efforts.

Stable isotope hydrology of a polymictic lake: Capturing transience of groundwater interactions

Although there have been many studies of groundwater inflow to small lakes, no systematic attention has been paid to the role of the time interval in the reliability of transient flow analysis. We addressed this issue in a two-year study of the isotope hydrology and water budget of a small lake in eastern Washington State (USA) that has been subject to limited management over several decades. The weighted local meteoric water line is δ2H = 7.14 δ18O – 5.22, reflecting the impact of convective recycling in this semi-arid region of inland northwestern North America. Groundwater inflow to the lake was quantified over two years using a short-interval isotopic transient mass balance approach. Calculated inflow was less than a fifth of the lake’s total water budget. Unrealistic temporal fluctuation of the calculated inflow was apparently correlated with fluctuation of the observed isotopic ratio of lake water (δL). We obtained realistic lake fluctuation and groundwater–lake exchange estimates by experimenting with the time interval of the isotope mass balance. It is crucial to acknowledge that each lake possesses unique characteristics that influence hydrologic and isotopic variations. Therefore, the optimal time interval for sampling and calculating mass balance may vary among different small lakes. Our findings have implications for long-term studies with frequent interval sampling.

The usefulness of the magnetic susceptibility of loess paleosol sequences for paleoclimate and stratigraphic studies: The case of the Quaternary Palouse loess, northwestern United States

Worldwide, Quaternary loess-paleosol sequences archive terrestrial paleoenvironmental information. The Palouse loess in the northwestern USA is one such deposit representing at least a million years of sediment accumulation. Loess paleosol sequences are often studied via the magnetic susceptibility of sediments and the changes in susceptibility with depth. However, since variations in magnetic susceptibility can have different underlying causes, the interpretation of the magnetic susceptibility of loess depends on factors specific to each major loess region. We measured the magnetic susceptibility of sediments along depth profiles in a well-studied exposure of the Palouse loess in eastern Washington, USA (the “CLY-2 site,” 46.3131° N, 118.4874° W, WGS84). Our measurements show that the magnetic susceptibility of sediments in the Palouse loess varies systematically and predictably with depth and can be correlated with other magnetic susceptibility profiles at the outcrop scale and at the regional scale. We also measured changes in grain size, elemental abundance, mineralogy, and other magnetic properties to determine the most likely cause of the magnetic susceptibility signal. Based on these results, variations in magnetic susceptibility in the Palouse are likely driven mostly by changes in coarse sediment supply and accumulation of tephra rather than changes in weathering. Magnetic susceptibility is useful as an inexpensive, non-destructive tool for stratigraphic correlation of Quaternary loess deposits in the Palouse, especially in combination with paleosol stratigraphic markers and known tephra deposits.

Farmworker-Relevant Heat Exposure in Different Crop and Shade Conditions

ABSTRACT Objectives Agricultural workers are at risk of heat-related illness, which is preventable. Few field studies have compared farmworker-relevant heat exposure in different conditions. We examined heat exposure over time in different potential shade and work locations to inform future occupational heat prevention approaches. Methods We assessed heat exposure in Eastern Washington State (WA) cherry and grape fields in August 2022. QUESTemp° monitors recorded Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) and Black Globe Temperature (BGT) every 10 min from approximately 07:00–14:00 for three days in the center of crop rows (mid-row), under portable shade structures (shade), and in open field (open) locations. Linear mixed effects regression (LMER) models compared WBGT and BGT among field locations. Hourly time-weighted average WBGT and comparisons with occupational exposure limits (OELs) were computed for different hypothetical work-rest cycles during the hottest sampling hours, assuming different worker effort levels, rest locations (mid-row versus shade), and acclimatization statuses. Results Across all crops and locations during the study period, the mean/SD air temperature was 31°C (88°F)/3.9°C (6.9°F), with a maximum temperature of 39°C (102°F) and a mean/SD relative humidity of 30%/9.6%. LMER models suggested no significant difference in mid-row versus open WBGT but significantly lower WBGT in shade versus open locations for both cherries (main effect −5.14: 95% confidence interval [CI] −6.97,−3.32) and grapes (−6.20: 95%CI −7.73,−4.67), though this difference diminished over the course of the day. BGT was significantly higher in the mid-row than the shade (cherries main effect 14.33: 95%CI 9.52,19.13 and grapes 17.10: 95%CI 13.44,20.75). During the hottest sampling hour, the exceedances of OELs were reduced with assumptions of increased shaded break lengths, reduced effort level, and acclimatization. Conclusions Shade canopies, but not the crops studied, provided significant reductions in heat exposure. We observed increased protection from heat assuming longer shaded breaks and reduced effort levels. Results highlight the need for additional field research on the effectiveness, feasibility, and acceptability of different shade types and work-rest cycles to guide employer optimization of best practices for worker protections, including acclimatization before high heat, sufficient shaded rest time, reduced effort levels as the day warms, and avoiding work in peak heat.

The influence of multidecadal climate variability and abrupt landscape change on terrestrial ecosystem composition and fire regime in the upper Columbia River basin - A high-resolution Holocene perspective

High-resolution paleoclimatic and paleoecologic datasets from a small lake in eastern Washington (USA) help elucidate Holocene environmental dynamics in the interior Pacific Northwest. Round Lake lies near the ecotone between sagebrush steppe and dry pine forest, making it highly sensitive to changes in precipitation-evaporation (P-E) balance. We present isotopic, sedimentological, and paleoecological data from a single sedimentary sequence analyzed at sufficient resolution to detect sub-decadal climatic variability. During the early Holocene (11,000–8500 cal yr BP), when summer insolation was higher than present, Round Lake experienced persistent aridity that led to reduced forest cover and small, probably frequent surface fires. Sub-centennial hydroclimate fluctuations during this period were muted, as indicated by low multi-decadal variability in δ18Ocarbonate records from the region. Oxygen isotopes indicate increased cool-season moisture during the middle Holocene (8500-5300 BP), but stratigraphic evidence suggests intermediate and variable lake levels. The deposition of the Mazama tephra (ca. 7600 cal yr BP) immediately preceded to a protracted expansion of steppe at the expense of forest. Increased hydroclimate variability and fire activity following ash deposition likely restricted conifer taxa even when elevated cool-season moisture would have facilitated their growth. The late Holocene was marked by persistently high lake levels, as indicated by the lithostratigraphic and pollen records. Comparatively large multidecadal variations in precipitation, which peaked during the last millennium, were also prominent features of late-Holocene hydroclimate, and may have been related to the strengthening of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Pinus and Pseudotsuga show a 60–100 year lag in their response to hydroclimatic variations inferred from the oxygen isotope records. These results highlight how millennial-to-decadal scale hydroclimate conditions, along with abrupt landscape change, influence ecology in a water-stressed region of western North America.

Weather-based Scheduling and Pulse Drip Irrigation Increase Growth and Production of Northern Highbush Blueberry

Northern highbush blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) often requires frequent irrigation for commercial production, but irrigation is becoming increasingly challenging for many growers because of warmer and drier weather conditions, increased water regulations, and other water-use limitations. The purpose of this study was to develop improved methods of irrigation to prepare the industry more effectively against future water uncertainties. Treatments were applied for 2 years (2021 and 2022) and included a combination of weather-based or fixed irrigation schedules using continuous or pulse irrigation in a commercial field of ‘Draper’ blueberry in eastern Washington, USA. The soil at the site was a silt loam, and irrigation was applied using two laterals of drip tubing per row. Plants on a fixed schedule were irrigated for 12 to 13 hours per application (set by the grower), whereas those on a weather-based schedule were irrigated according to daily estimates of crop evapotranspiration (downloaded from an automated weather station). In both cases, irrigation was applied every 2 to 4 days as a single, continuous application or in 30- to 50-minute pulses every 2 hours (up to nine times per day) with the same amount of water as the continuous treatment. During the first year of the study, weather-based scheduling maintained greater stem water potentials in the plants and, on average, increased yield by 3.4 t⋅ha–1, berry weight by 0.14 g/berry, berry diameter by 0.4 mm, and fruit bud set by 4.3% when compared with fixed scheduling. Likewise, pulse irrigation maintained greater stem water potentials and, on average, increased berry weight and diameter by 0.10 g and 0.4 mm, respectively, fruit bud set by 3.3%, and canopy cover by 2.4% relative to continuous irrigation. Yield and canopy cover were unaffected by any treatment in the second year, which was likely a result of uncharacteristically cool, wet weather in the spring. However, weather-based scheduling continued to maintain greater stem water potentials and, when combined with pulse irrigation, increased berry weight and diameter by 3.7 g and 1.0 mm, respectively, relative to continuous irrigation on a fixed schedule. Pulse drip irrigation also increased fruit bud set by 5.1% during the second year. These results demonstrate the potential benefits of using weather-based scheduling and pulse drip in northern highbush blueberry, especially when the plants are grown on light-textured soils in hot, dry climates.

A Qualitative Study of the Meaning of Food and Religious Identity

ObjectiveTo identify common themes of the meaning of food among people who identify with a specific religious tradition, particularly focusing on potential applications for nutrition education and professional practice at multiple levels of the Social-Ecological Model. DesignVirtual and in-person focus groups were used to collect qualitative data. SettingA midsized city in eastern Washington State. ParticipantsNine focus groups (n = 35), each representing a distinct religious congregation. Phenomenon of InterestMeaning of food in the context of religion. AnalysisQualitative, reflexive thematic analysis using web-based software to organize data. ResultsFour key themes were identified that applied to both of the overarching focus group topic areas (general and religious): (1) food fosters connection, (2) food influences health, (3) relationships with food are complicated, and (4) food choices reflect values. Subthemes were specific to topic areas. In religious contexts, the meaning of food was more likely understood at a community level in addition to individual and relational levels of the Social-Ecological Model. Conclusions and ImplicationsAcknowledgment and consideration of the religious identities of patients and clients may provide greater opportunities for community connection, which may have potential implications for community-level nutrition interventions.

Rates of bedrock canyon incision by megafloods, Channeled Scabland, eastern Washington, USA

Pleistocene outburst floods from the drainage of glacial Lake Missoula carved bedrock canyons into the Columbia Plateau in eastern Washington, USA, forming the Channeled Scabland. However, rates of bedrock incision by outburst floods are largely unconstrained, which hinders the ability to link flood hydrology with landscape evolution in the Channeled Scabland and other flood-carved landscapes. We used long profiles of hanging tributaries to reconstruct the pre-flood topography of the two largest Channeled Scabland canyons, upper Grand Coulee and Moses Coulee, and a smaller flood-eroded channel, Wilson Creek. The topographic reconstruction indicates floods eroded 67.8 km3, 14.5 km3, and 1.6 km3 of rock from upper Grand Coulee, Moses Coulee, and Wilson Creek, respectively, which corresponds to an average incision depth of 169 m, 56 m, and 10 m in each flood route. We simulated flood discharge over the reconstructed, pre-flood topography and found that high-water evidence was emplaced in each of these channels by flow discharges of 3.1 × 106 m3 s−1, 0.65−0.9 × 106 m3 s−1, and 0.65−0.9 × 106 m3 s−1, respectively. These discharges are a fraction of those predicted under the assumption that post-flood topography was filled to high-water marks for Grand and Moses Coulees. However, both methods yield similar results for Wilson Creek, where there was less erosion. Sediment transport rates based on these discharges imply that the largest canyons could have formed in only about six or fewer floods, based on the time required to transport the eroded rock from each canyon, with associated rates of knickpoint propagation on the order of several km per day. Overall, our results indicate that a small number of outburst floods, with discharges much lower than commonly assumed, can cause extensive erosion and canyon formation in fractured bedrock.

Cropland abandonment between 1986 and 2018 across the United States: spatiotemporal patterns and current land uses

Knowing where and when croplands have been abandoned or otherwise removed from cultivation is fundamental to evaluating future uses of these areas, e.g. as sites for ecological restoration, recultivation, bioenergy production, or other uses. However, large uncertainties remain about the location and time of cropland abandonment and how this process and the availability of associated lands vary spatially and temporally across the United States. Here, we present a nationwide, 30 m resolution map of croplands abandoned throughout the period of 1986–2018 for the conterminous United States (CONUS). We mapped the location and time of abandonment from annual cropland layers we created in Google Earth Engine from 30 m resolution Landsat imagery using an automated classification method and training data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Cropland Data Layer. Our abandonment map has overall accuracies of 0.91 and 0.65 for the location and time of abandonment, respectively. From 1986 to 2018, 12.3 (±2.87) million hectares (Mha) of croplands were abandoned across CONUS, with areas of greatest change over the Ogallala Aquifer, the southern Mississippi Alluvial Plain, the Atlantic Coast, North Dakota, northern Montana, and eastern Washington state. The average annual nationwide abandoned area across our study period was 0.51 Mha per year. Annual abandonment peaked between 1997 and 1999 at a rate of 0.63 Mha year−1, followed by a continuous decrease to 0.41 Mha year−1 in 2009–2011. Among the abandoned croplands, 53% (6.5 Mha) changed to grassland and pasture, 18.6% (2.28 Mha) to shrubland and forest, 8.4% (1.03 Mha) to wetlands, and 4.6% (0.56 Mha) to non-vegetated lands. Of the areas that we mapped as abandoned, 19.6% (2.41 Mha) were enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program as of 2020. Our new map highlights the long-term dynamic nature of agricultural land use and its relation to various competitive pressures and land use policies in the United States.

Decision Support for Landscapes with High Fire Hazard and Competing Values at Risk: The Upper Wenatchee Pilot Project

Background: Climate change is a strong contributing factor in the lengthening and intensification of wildfire seasons, with warmer and often drier conditions associated with increasingly severe impacts. Land managers are faced with challenging decisions about how to manage forests, minimize risk of extreme wildfire, and balance competing values at risk, including communities, habitat, air quality, surface drinking water, recreation, and infrastructure. Aims: We propose that land managers use decision analytic frameworks to complement existing decision support systems such as the Interagency Fuel Treatment Decision Support System. Methods: We apply this approach to a fire-prone landscape in eastern Washington State under two proposed landscape treatment alternatives. Through stakeholder engagement, a quantitative wildfire risk assessment, and translating results into probabilistic descriptions of wildfire occurrence (burn probability) and intensity (conditional flame length), we construct a decision tree to explicitly evaluate tradeoffs of treatment alternative outcomes. Key Results: We find that while there are slightly more effective localized benefits for treatments involving thinning and prescribed burning, neither of the UWPP’s proposed alternatives are more likely to meaningfully minimize the risk of wildfire impacts at the landscape level. Conclusions: This case study demonstrates that a quantitatively informed decision analytic framework can improve land managers’ ability to effectively and explicitly evaluate tradeoffs between treatment alternatives.

Concurrently assessing water supply and demand is critical for evaluating vulnerabilities to climate change

AbstractAligning water supply with demand is a challenge, particularly in areas with large seasonal variation in precipitation and those dominated by winter precipitation. Climate change is expected to exacerbate this challenge, increasing the need for long‐term planning. Long‐term projections of water supply and demand that can aid planning are mostly published as agency reports, which are directly relevant to decision‐making but less likely to inform future research. We present 20‐year water supply and demand projections for the Columbia River, produced in partnership with the Washington State Dept. of Ecology. This effort includes integrated modeling of future surface water supply and agricultural demand by 2040 and analyses of future groundwater trends, residential demand, instream flow deficits, and curtailment. We found that shifting timing in water supply could leave many eastern Washington watersheds unable to meet late‐season out‐of‐stream demands. Increasing agricultural or residential demands in watersheds could exacerbate these late‐season vulnerabilities, and curtailments could become more common for rivers with federal or state instream flow rules. Groundwater trends are mostly declining, leaving watersheds more vulnerable to surface water supply or demand changes. Both our modeling framework and agency partnership can serve as an example for other long‐term efforts that aim to provide insights for water management in a changing climate elsewhere around the world.

Lower diversity of forbs in prairie restoration alters pollinator communities but not structural characteristics of plant–pollinator networks

Reestablishment of native plant communities is often the primary focus of ecological restoration. This is especially true for prairie restoration, which often struggles to establish diverse forb communities. An often‐overlooked component in plant reestablishment is pollinators, with 85% of forbs requiring pollination for seed reproduction. A deeper understanding of the relationship between plant and pollinator communities could improve prairie restoration success. Our goal was to determine if prairie restoration is successfully reestablishing forb and pollinator communities and their interactions by measuring plant–pollinator networks. We hypothesized that both forb and pollinator communities would be less diverse and abundant in restoration sites compared to intact prairie remnants, and that as a result, plant–pollinator networks in restoration sites would have higher nestedness and connectance, but lower modularity and network specialization than remnant sites. To test this, we measured plant–pollinator networks and forb communities from June to September 2020 at three restored and three remnant Palouse Prairie sites in eastern Washington, United States. We found that although restored sites had lower species richness of forbs and pollinators and different community composition, forb and pollinator abundance was comparable between treatments. Forb abundance in restored sites was equivalent to prairie remnants due to the presence of invasive forbs. However, these differences in community composition and diversity did not appear to impact network metrics including nestedness, connectance, modularity, and network specialization, which were similar between remnant and restored sites. Our results suggest that the structural characteristics of plant–pollinator networks can be maintained by different plant communities.