Eastern Stock Research Articles

How does Hamas–Israel war impact stock markets in the Middle East? Country and sector-level analysis

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the sensitivity of a set of Middle Eastern stock markets to the most recent armed confrontation between Hamas and Israel. The analysis reveals a discernible negative impact across almost all markets considered, with the Israeli stock market experiencing the most pronounced effect on the event day. Interestingly, the Israeli stock market appears to be relatively more efficient than those of neighbouring countries. At the sector level, among the negatively affected sectors, the energy sector experienced the most pronounced impact. However, some sectors, notably materials, industrials, and information technology, were relatively resilient to this geostrategic shock.

Dividend policies and stock volatility-empirical evidence from Middle Eastern stock markets

PurposeThe study aims to explore the relation between dividend policy of any company and its stock volatility.Design/methodology/approachCompanies listed on six GCC stock markets are used in the analysis and the data ranges from 2006 to 2020. Fixed effect and random effect panel data analysis is used to explore the association between stock volatility and the dividend policies.FindingsA significant negative relation is observed between dividend payout and stock volatility. Also, significant negative relation between stock volatility and equity is found, whereas insignificant positive relation is observed between asset growth and stock volatility.Research limitations/implicationsThe data of all listed companies on six GCC markets were not available.Practical implicationsThe question of raising dividend or maintaining at the current level is of utmost importance for the managers of any company before making any investment decisions. Also, the investors look at the dividend announcements as a sort of signal about the future prospect of the company. A stable or fluctuating dividends may be preferred by the investors that ultimately changes the stock price of any company.Social implicationsThe relationship between dividend policy and the volatility of stock price is explored for emerging GCC markets which is the major significance of this paper which will have many social impacts on various stakeholders of any company including investors, regulators and employees, etc.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, no study for GCC markets is done to establish a relation between stock volatility and the dividend policies which is needed by the academicians to further explore the behavior of these markets.

Evaluating Atlantic bluefin tuna harvest strategies that use conventional genetic tagging data

An individual tagging model was implemented within the spatial, seasonal, multi-stock, multi-fleet operating models of the peer-reviewed Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) framework for Atlantic bluefin tuna to evaluate the benefits of a harvest strategy that utilizes conventional gene tagging. A multi-year Brownie estimator was developed to test the accuracy and precision of exploitation rate estimates arising from gene tagging programs with various scenarios for spatial release distribution, release numbers and fishery exploitation rates. Harvest strategies that used the Brownie estimator were tested to evaluate yield and resource conservation performance relative to idealized management using perfect information. For the eastern stock, releasing 1,000 fish throughout the Atlantic and genotyping 27% of all landed fish at an estimated cost of US$2M was sufficient to obtain estimates of exploitation rate with a coefficient of variation of 20%. For the western stock, the same precision in exploitation rate estimates required the release of 1,300 fish and genotyping rate of 35% at an estimated cost of US$2.5M. Harvest strategies using the gene tagging data provided expected yield and resource conservation performance that was not substantially lower than a harvest strategy assuming using perfect information regarding vulnerable biomass. Reducing the number of releases most strongly affected the worst-case ‘lower-tail’ outcomes for West area yield and eastern stock biomass. Conventional gene tagging harvest strategies offer a promising basis for calculating management advice for Atlantic bluefin tuna that may be cheaper, simpler, and more robust than the current conventional stock assessment paradigm.

Portfolio diversification with cryptocurrencies – Evidence from Middle Eastern stock markets

ABSTRACT The appealing features of cryptocurrency in the digital money sector have put them into the category of investable assets. Investment professionals have begun to consider their investability and diversification benefits. It is vital for investors to understand the return-risk behaviour among investable assets to reap the benefits of diversification. This paper considers a proxy of cryptos, specifically Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, Ripple & Neo, and the Middle East stock market indices, to examine the dynamic relationship among them using the vector error correction model. This study found evidence to suggest that cryptos exhibit a co-integrated relationship while there is no evidence of significant cointegrated movements occurring between the cryptos and the market indices. The latter finding implies that cryptos are decoupled from the market indices and can serve as a diversification option for investors. The mean-variance approach confirms that cryptocurrencies fit into an optimal portfolio and involve an enhanced return-risk reward for investors.

Monitoring the reproductive status of resident and migrant Atlantic bluefin tuna in the Strait of Gibraltar

Two distinct contingents of Atlantic bluefin tuna (ABFT), migrants and residents, occur in the Strait of Gibraltar (SoG). Long-term residents are commercially exploited all year round using hook and line gears, whereas migrants are caught by traps in springtime as they pass through the SoG towards Mediterranean spawning grounds. While reproductive features of migrants have been widely studied, the life history of residents remains poorly investigated. The relative contribution of this subpopulation to ABFT eastern stock productivity is therefore unknown. Reproductive traits of resident ABFT were monitored throughout the year, and were compared with those of migrants crossing the SoG in spring. To assess maturation timing, gonads were classified into maturation stages based on histological features. Our results indicate biometric and reproductive differences between SoG residents and migrants. ABFT caught by hook and line gears were smaller on average than those collected from traps. The females sampled from the hook and line fishery in May and early June showed, on average, significantly lower GSI values than those caught by trap. In contrast, the GSI values of males sampled in May were not significantly different between gears. Histological analyses showed a more advanced reproductive condition in trap-caught migrants. Delayed maturation schedules of residents in comparison to migrants would result in less egg production and poorer larval survival rates. The present findings encourage further investigation of reproductive schedules in unstudied subpopulations for a better understanding of ABFT dynamics.

Genetic connectivity between Atlantic bluefin tuna larvae spawned in the Gulf of Mexico and in the Mediterranean Sea.

The highly migratory Atlantic bluefin tuna (ABFT) is currently managed as two distinct stocks, in accordance with natal homing behavior and population structuring despite the absence of barriers to gene flow. Larval fish are valuable biological material for tuna molecular ecology. However, they have hardly been used to decipher the ABFT population structure, although providing the genetic signal from successful breeders. For the first time, cooperative field collection of tuna larvae during 2014 in the main spawning area for each stock, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and the Mediterranean Sea (MED), enabled us to assess the ABFT genetic structure in a precise temporal and spatial frame exclusively through larvae. Partitioning of genetic diversity at nuclear microsatellite loci and in the mitochondrial control region in larvae spawned contemporarily resulted in low significant fixation indices supporting connectivity between spawners in the main reproduction area for each population. No structuring was detected within the GOM after segregating nuclear diversity in larvae spawned in two hydrographically distinct regions, the eastern GOM (eGOM) and the western GOM (wGOM), with the larvae from eGOM being more similar to those collected in the MED than the larvae from wGOM. We performed clustering of genetically characterized ABFT larvae through Bayesian analysis and by Discriminant Analysis of Principal Components (DAPC) supporting the existence of favorable areas for mixing of ABFT spawners from Western and Eastern stocks, leading to gene flow and apparent connectivity between weakly structured populations. Our findings suggest that the eastern GOM is more prone for the mixing of breeders from the two ABFT populations. Conservation of this valuable resource exploited for centuries calls for intensification of tuna ichthyoplankton research and standardization of genetic tools for monitoring population dynamics.

Stock-of-origin catch estimation of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) based on observed spatial distributions

Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) are a large, highly migratory fish distributed throughout the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas currently managed as two discrete stocks: western and eastern. Both stocks forage in the North Atlantic, and a high degree of intermixing occurs, which combined with limited single-stock survey data makes it difficult to assess the abundance and status of individual populations. In this study, we used movement patterns from a multidecadal tagging dataset to create monthly distribution maps for these two major stocks. We then used these maps to separate the overall catch records into stock-specific catch (catch per unit effort, CPUE) time series. We identified an increase in the past two decades in the proportion of catch estimated to come from the eastern stock, attributable to a decrease in CPUE in regions dominated by the western stock, relative to other regions. The stock-specific catch series can be used to improve the accuracy of stock assessments and inform spatial management.

Multiple-Phase Biometric Relationships and Sexual Maturity in the Atlantic Bluefin Tuna, Thunnus thynnus (Osteichthyes: Scombridae).

Simple SummaryFish undergo distinct growth phases during their life. Passages from one growth phase to the following one correspond to a dramatic change in body proportion and/or growth rate. These changes can be detected as change-points in biometric relationships, such as that between length and weight. In this paper, we checked whether any change-points could be detected in the somatic proportions of the Atlantic bluefin tuna during its growth in order to better define some life history traits, including size at sexual maturity, that represent the essential basic knowledge for the effective management of this species. Fork length–weight relationship, length–age relationship (von Bertalanffy growth equation), and the relationship between the surface of the cross section of the first dorsal spine (a measure indicative of spine bone thickness) and the fork length were examined. All of the somatic relationships showed a change-point between 101 and 110 cm fork length. The present results corroborate the disputed hypothesis that Atlantic bluefin tuna from the eastern stock reproduce for the first time at 3–4 years of age.Most fish undergo distinct growth phases during ontogenesis. An extremely important passage from the juvenile to adult phase occurs at the onset of sexual maturity, which shows in body proportion and/or growth rate changes. These can be detected as change-points in biometric relationships. In this paper, the Atlantic bluefin tuna was analyzed to verify whether its somatic proportions show any sign of discontinuity during growth, i.e., whether any change-points may be detected in its somatic proportions. This fish has never been examined in this respect, and single-phase models, which are indeed easier to both compute and apply, are used in stock analyses. The following somatic relationships were analyzed in Atlantic bluefin tuna captured in the Mediterranean Sea between 1998 and 2010: “fork length–weight” regression, the von Bertalanffy growth equation, and “first dorsal spine cross section surface–fork length” regression. All of the examined relationships were found to be best modelled by multiple-phase regression equations, and all of them showed a change-point within the range of 101–110 cm fork length, which corresponds to 3–4 years of age. The present results, based on reproductive state-independent analyses, corroborate the disputed hypothesis that Atlantic bluefin tuna from the eastern stock in fact reproduce for the first time at this age.

Providing a Network for Measuring the Dynamics Volatility Connectedness of Oil and Financial Markets

Various studies have shown that markets are not separated and that fluctuations in different markets affect each other. Therefore, awareness of connectedness is needed for investors and policymakers for making appropriate decisions. The aim of this paper is to measure the dynamics connectedness of selected stock markets in the Middle East, oil markets, gold, the dollar index, and euro-dollar and pound-dollar exchange rates during the period February 2007 to August 2019 in networks with different weekly horizons. In this paper, we intend to evaluate the pairwise impact of crude oil and the Middle East stock markets, in particular on the Tehran Stock Exchange, and to analyze this variance using different time horizons. The results show that in all time horizons the variance of forecast error in most markets is due to the shocks themselves. The Saudi Arabian Stock Exchange has the most impact on other Middle Eastern stocks. The dynamics connectedness of the oil markets is remarkable, however, as the time horizon increases, dynamic connectedness between the two markets decreases and they are mostly affected by other markets, especially the Middle East stock exchanges except for Iran. Moreover, Iran stock market is an isolated market. About the gold market, there is a significant connectedness with the pound-dollar exchange rate and gold market; however, the dynamics connectedness of this market with other markets are not significant. Therefore, this market and Iran stock exchange can be used as a tool to hedge risk for investors.

Performance of stock assessments for mixed-population fisheries: the illustrative case of Atlantic bluefin tuna

Abstract Accounting for movement and mixing in stock assessment is important for managing sustainable fisheries, particularly for highly migratory species. However, many fisheries management approaches continue to use single-stock, single-area models to assess mixed-population stocks that are known to have complex movement dynamics. We evaluated a single-stock, single-area stock assessment model’s performance on fishery pseudodata generated using a spatially complex operating model that incorporates movement and mixing of simulated Atlantic bluefin tuna-like populations. Structural model misspecification produced positively biased perceptions of size and productivity of the smaller western population, based on supplement by the larger eastern population, and negatively biased perceptions of the size and productivity of the eastern population due to net movement of fish out of the eastern stock area. This bias could lead to unintended overexploitation of the smaller western population and potential for foregone yield of the larger eastern population. Our findings provide a greater understanding of the effects of movement and mixing on single-stock, single-area model-based management approaches and emphasize the importance of explicitly considering these dynamics in ensuring the sustainability of highly migratory species like Atlantic bluefin tuna.

Demographic consequences and characteristics of recent population mixing and colonization in Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus

Abstract Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) are composed of two genetically distinct metapopulations (an increasing “eastern” and a reduced and endangered “western” population, or stock for management purposes in U.S. waters) that are only recently mixing at new rookeries in northern Southeast Alaska, east of the current stock boundary. We used mark-recapture models and 18 years of resighting data of over 3,500 individuals marked at the new rookeries and at neighboring long-established rookeries in both populations to examine morphology, survival, and movement patterns of pups born at new rookeries based on whether they had mitochondrial DNA haplotypes from the western or eastern population (mtW or mtE); examine survival effects of dispersal to the Eastern Stock region for animals born in the Western Stock region; and estimate minimum proportions of animals with western genetic material in regions within Southeast Alaska. Pups born at new rookeries with mtW had similar mass, but reduced body condition and first-year survival (approximately −10%) compared to pups with mtE. mtE pups ranged more widely than mtW pups, including more to the sheltered waters of Southeast Alaska’s Inside Passage. Fitness benefits for western-born females that dispersed to Southeast Alaska were observed as higher female survival (+0.127, +0.099, and +0.032 at ages 1, 2, and 3+) and higher survival of their female offspring to breeding age (+0.15) compared to females that remained west of the boundary. We estimated that a minimum of 38% and 13% of animals in the North Outer Coast–Glacier Bay and Lynn Canal–Frederick Sound regions in Southeast Alaska, respectively, carry genetic information unique to the western population. Despite fitness benefits to western females that dispersed east, asymmetric dispersal costs or other genetic or maternal effects may limit the growth of the western genetic lineage at the new rookeries, and these factors require further study.

Pathological findings and survey for pathogens associated with reproductive failure in perinatal Steller sea lions Eumetopias jubatus.

Steller sea lions (SSLs) Eumetopias jubatus experienced a population decline in the 1960s, leading to the listing of the western stock as endangered and the eastern stock as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act. A decrease of births in the western stock beginning in the late 1960s indicates that reproductive failure may have contributed to the decline. We evaluated the role pathogens play in spontaneous abortions, premature births and neonatal deaths in SSLs. Archived tissues from carcasses (n = 19) collected in Alaska from 2002 to 2015 were tested by PCR for Coxiella burnetii, Brucella spp., Chlamydia and morbilliviruses. Animals examined included 47% premature pups, 32% aborted fetuses, 11% neonates and 11% intrauterine fetuses. Gross necropsy and histology findings were summarized in the context of the PCR findings. Tissues were negative for Chlamydia and C. burnetii. Brucella spp. were detected in the lung tissues of 3 animals, including 1 positive for the ST27 strain, the first detection of Brucella spp. DNA in SSLs. Phocine distemper virus was detected in 3 animals in 2 skin lesions and 1 placenta by hemi-nested diagnostic qRT-PCR. Both skin and the placental lesions had vesiculoulcerative changes, and 1 skin lesion contained inclusion bodies in syncytia and upon histologic examination, suggesting that the lesions may be associated with an infection reminiscent of phocine distemper virus, the first in SSLs. We highlight the continuing need for disease surveillance programs to improve our understanding of the prevalence and potential population impacts of these infectious disease agents for pinnipeds in Alaskan waters.

Insights on the seasonal variations of reproductive features in the Eastern Atlantic Bluefin Tuna

The Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ABFT, Thunnus thynnus) is one of the most intensely exploited fisheries resources in the world. In spite of the years of studies on ABFT, basic aspects of its reproductive biology remain uncertain. To gain insight regarding the seasonal changes of the reproductive characteristics of the eastern stock of ABFT, blood and tissue samples were collected from mature specimens caught in the Mediterranean basin during the reproductive (May-June) and non-reproductive season (Oct-Nov). Histological analysis of the gonads of May-June samples indicated that there were females which were actively spawning (contained post-ovulatory follicles) and females that were not actively spawning that had previtellogenic and fully vitellogenic oocytes. In males, testis were at early or late stage of spermatogenesis during the reproductive season. In Oct-Nov, ovaries contained mostly previtellogenic oocytes as well as β and α atretic follicles while the testis predominantly contained spermatogonia and few cysts with spermatocytes and spermatozoa. Gonadosomatic index (GSI) in females was highest among the actively spawning individuals while in males GSI was higher in early and late spermatogenic individuals compared to those that were spent. Plasma sex steroids levels varied with the reproductive season. In females, estradiol (E2), was higher in May-June while testosterone (T) and progesterone (P) did not vary. In males, E2 and T were higher in May-June while P levels were similar at the two sampling points. Circulating follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) was higher in Oct-Nov than in May-June both in males and females. Vitellogenin (VTG) was detected in plasma from both males and females during the reproductive season with levels in females significantly higher than in males. VTG was undetected in Oct-Nov samples. Since choriogenesis is an important event during follicle growth, the expression of three genes involved in vitelline envelope formation and hardening was measured and results showed significantly higher levels in ovaries in fish caught in May-June with respect to those sampled in Oct-Nov. In addition, a set of genes encoding for ion channels that are responsible for oocyte hydration and buoyancy, as well as sperm viability, were characterized at the two time points, and these were found to be more highly expressed in females during the reproductive season. Finally, the expression level of three mRNAs encoding for different lipid-binding proteins was analyzed with significantly higher levels detected in males, suggesting sex-specific expression. Our findings provide additional information on the reproductive biology of ABFT, particularly on biomarkers for the assessment of the state of maturation of the gonad, highlighting gender-specific signals and seasonal differences.

Assessing SNP-markers to study population mixing and ecological adaptation in Baltic cod.

Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) is a species of great ecological and economical importance in the Baltic Sea. Here, two genetically differentiated stocks, the western and the eastern Baltic cod, display substantial mechanical mixing, hampering our understanding of cod ecology and impeding stock assessments and management. Based on whole-genome re-sequencing data from reference samples obtained from the study area, we designed two different panels of Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms markers (SNPs), which take into account the exceptional genome architecture of cod. A minimum panel of 20 diagnostic SNPs and an extended panel (20 diagnostic and 18 biologically informative SNPs, 38 in total) were developed and validated to distinguish unambiguously between the western and the eastern Baltic cod stocks and to enable studies of local adaptation to the specific environment in the Baltic Sea, respectively. We tested both panels on cod sampled from the southern Baltic Sea (n = 603) caught in 2015 and 2016. Genotyping results showed that catches from the mixing zone in the Arkona Sea, were composed of similar proportions of individuals of the western and the eastern stock. Catches from adjacent areas to the east, the Bornholm Basin and Gdańsk Deep, were exclusively composed of eastern Baltic cod, whereas catches from adjacent western areas (Belt Sea and Öresund) were composed of western Baltic cod. Interestingly, the two Baltic cod stocks showed strong genetic differences at loci associated with life-history trait candidate genes, highlighting the species’ potential for ecological adaptation even at small geographical scales. The minimum and the extended panel of SNP markers presented in this study provide powerful tools for future applications in research and fisheries management to further illuminate the mixing dynamics of cod in the Baltic Sea and to better understand Baltic cod ecology.

Spillover Effects of US QE and QE Tapering on African and Middle Eastern Stock Indices

In this paper, we study spillover effects on the stock markets of six African and nine Middle Eastern emerging economies before, during, and after the implementation of unconventional monetary policies by the United States Federal Reserve (US Fed). Weekly data covering the pre-quantitative easing (pre-QE) period, the three phases of QE, and the QE-tapering period were adopted. The methodologies employed here for detecting dual causality were as follows: classical, dynamic, and time-varying Granger causality tests. The results indicate that the Fed’s non-conventional actions weakened the Fed’s monetary policies’ impact on the stock indices of these emerging countries. Interestingly, there is evidence that two African and three Middle Eastern countries—all different according to each of the specifications used in the methodology—were affected by the tapering of unconventional US monetary practices.

Spatial distribution, movements, and geographic range of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska.

The two stocks of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska include an endangered western stock, recently recovering in parts of its range following decades of decline, and an eastern stock which was removed from the U.S. Endangered Species List in 2013 following increasing numbers since the 1970s. Information on overlapping distributions of eastern and western sea lions is needed for management considerations. We analyzed >30,000 sightings collected from 2000–2014 of 2,385 sea lions that were branded as pups at 10 Alaskan rookeries to examine mesoscale (mostly <500km) spatial distribution, geographic range, and geographic population structure based on natal rookery, sex, and age during breeding and non-breeding seasons. Analyses of summary movement measures (e.g., natal rookery, sex, and age-class differences in spatial distribution and geographic range) indicate wide variation in rookery-specific movement patterns. Correlations between movement measures and population dynamics suggested movement patterns could be a function of density dependence. Animals from larger rookeries, and rookeries with slower population growth and lower survival, had wider dispersion than animals from smaller rookeries, or rookeries with high growth and survival. Sea lions from the largest rookery, Forrester Island, where survival and population trends are lowest, were the most widely distributed. Analysis of geographic population structure indicated that animals born in the eastern Aleutian Islands had the most distinct movements and had little overlap with other western sea lions. Northern Southeast Alaska, within the eastern stock, is the area of greatest overlap between stocks, and is important to western animals, especially those born in Prince William Sound. Detailed knowledge of distribution and movements of western sea lions is useful for defining recovery and population trend analysis regions that better reflect dispersion and population structure and provides valuable information to managers as critical habitat is re-evaluated and the location of the stock boundary reconsidered.

Pelagic habitat and offspring survival in the eastern stock of Atlantic bluefin tuna

Abstract In this manuscript, we test how an understanding of geographical variation in larval fitness in relation to temperature and habitat use could be a useful method to improve our understanding of recruitment and develop better indices of annual recruitment. On the basis of the assumption that growth and survival of tuna larvae are influenced by temperature, we have developed a potential larval survival index for Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) by combining empirical data from egg and larval rearing experiments with temperature data from hydrodynamic models. The experiments were designed to test the full range of temperature variability that bluefin larvae would experience in the field and provide a mechanistic understanding of the processes driving egg and larval survival. We then developed a biological model using the temperature-related growth expressions and a size-dependent survival function for the larvae. The biological model was applied to a time-series of spatially explicit temperature data for the western Mediterranean from the Strait of Gibraltar to 6°E, which includes the major recognized bluefin tuna eastern stock spawning area, the Balearic Sea. Our results show that areas with high probabilities of larval survival coincide with those that would be considered as optimal based on other data sources (ichthyoplankton surveys, spawning female locations from commercial fisheries data, and adult tracking data). However, evidence of spawning has been found in areas with suboptimal thermal habitats, as predicted by the model, which we discuss regarding sampling effort and salinity fronts. There was a good match between the survival index and recruitment indices from standardized CPUE fisheries data. These results have implications for our understanding of the recruitment process of the eastern stock of Atlantic bluefin tuna, since they suggest that the combined effects of temporal and spatial variability of the environment drive recruitment success, which has important implications for the management of the species.

New species of Karydomys (Rodentia) from the Miocene of Chios Island (Greece) and phylogenetic relationships of this rare democricetodontine genus

AbstractKarydomys is a rare and little diversified democricetodontine, of which only six species are currently recognized. This group of rodents is first recorded in the early Miocene (MN3) in China and spread quickly thereafter to Kazakhstan and Greece (MN4). Karydomys reached south‐western and central Europe by early middle Miocene times (MN5), from where it became extinct shortly thereafter (MN6). A new species of Karydomys is here described from the Miocene Keramia Formation of Chios Island (north‐eastern Aegean Sea). Karydomys strati sp. nov. is characterized by the presence of a labial spur on the anterolophule, the lack of anterior protolophule on the M1 and by the presence of a double metalophule on the M2. A cladistics analysis involving all the species of Karydomys and some closely related species of Democricetodon and Cricetodon show that Karydomys split early into two different lineages, an ‘eastern stock’, which includes the central Asian (K. debruijni and K. dzerzhinskii) and Greek (K. symeonidisi, K. boskosi and K. strati) species, and a ‘western lineage’ comprising the western and central European species (K. wigharti and K. zapfei). The evolutionary stage of Karydomys strati suggests that the lowermost part of the Keramia Formation, usually attributed to the middle Miocene, is older than previously thought.

INTEGRATION AND EQUITY MARKET CO-MOVEMENT AMONG MIDDLE EASTERN ECONOMIES

ABSTRACT The study of Middle Eastern (ME) stock market co-movement is imperative for portfolio diversification and regional policy co-ordination. Financial stability and regional policy coordination may be greatly enhanced by financial convergence. Partly due to technological advances, information and price movements in one market are rapidly transmitted to the others. This condition raises the question of whether international portfolio diversification is profitable. Similarly, the dynamics of correlation and co-movement between Middle Eastern stock markets may compel portfolio managers to actively calibrate their portfolios in search of assets with lower correlations. In this paper, I investigate the impact of trade intensity, equity trade volume, and gross capital formation on the degree of stock market co-movement among selected Middle Eastern economies. Using daily Middle Eastern equity indices observed over 10 years, I estimate the time-varying cross-country correlations applying Fisher Z transformation and panel data econometric framework of feasible generalized least squares (FGLS). My result shows a lethargic evidence of the impact of trade intensity, yet it offers a strong evidence of the impact of equity trade volume and gross capital formation on Middle Eastern cross-country stock market interrelationship. The results found stronger evidence of impact for the post financial crisis sub-sample period. Largely, the direction of the impact of estimated coefficients on cross-country correlation are mixed from one cross-country pair to another. My results found no evidence of persistence in cross-country correlation of Middle Eastern stock market over the sample period. Keywords Stock market synchronization; trade integration; Middle Eastern; Realized Volatility.

«Neolithic Revolution» in Archaeology of Ukraine at the Beginning of the 21st Century

Due to a significant replenishment of the sources at the beginning of the 21stcentury, there was a change of conceptions on the Neolithization process on the territory of Ukraine. The south-east version of neolithization of Ukraine, which was well-known at the second half of the 20th&nbsp;century with the name of «eastern stock breeding impulse», was not confirmed. On the other hand, there are numerous archaeological, palaeozoological and palaeobotanic data in behalf of south-western variant of neolithization of Ukraine. Ukraine, and first of all the Dnipro right bank territory, switched to the Neolithic at the end of the 6th&nbsp;- 5th&nbsp;millennia BC (cal.), the way the whole Central Europe did. It happened in the mode of «balkanization» due to the four main waves of the Neolithic farmers-colonists from the Balkans and the Danube River region: 1) Hrebenyky culture (the second half of the 7th&nbsp;millennium BC); 2) Criș (the first half of the 6th&nbsp;millennium BC); 3) Linear Pottery culture (second half of the 6th&nbsp;millennium BC); 4) Cucuteni-Trypillia (the 5th&nbsp;millennium BC). As in Central Europe, on territory of Ukraine, there were two types of the Neolithic: north-eastern woodland and south-western agriculture and cattle breeding ones. To the south-west province of the Neolithic in Ukraine included farmers and cattle breeders of the Criș, Linear Pottery, and Cucuteni-Trypillia cultures, genetically related to the Neolithic of the Balkans and the Danube region. The woodland Neolithic of the region covers the cultures of indigenous hunters and fishers, who were already acquainted with clay ware, but did not yet own the skills of productive economy. They were the Dnipro-Donetsk, Pit-Comb Ware, Volynian, Surska, Donetsk, and Tash-Air cultures. The earliest in Ukraine reliable traces of substantiated economy are observed in the Körös culture materials of Zakarpattia region (first part of the 6th&nbsp;millennium BC (cal.)) and the Linear Pottery culture of Volyn and Dnister region (second half of the 6th&nbsp;millennium BC (cal.)). Finally, in the 5th&nbsp;millennium BC, the Cucuteni-Trypillia culture population arriving from the south-west to Neolithic Ukraine completely neolithizated the Right-Bank forest-steppe region from the Carpathians to the Dnipro River. The Buh-Dnister culture (BDC) developed under the Criș culture’s influence from Moldova territory between the Dnister and the South Buh Rivers in the middle of the 6th&nbsp;millennium BC (cal.). Pressed by the new migration waves of the farmers from the Danube region (Linear Band Pottery and Cucuteni-Trypillia), the BDC bearers moved aside in the north-east direction in Kyiv and Cherkasy Dnipro regions, where the Dnipro-Donets culture appeared at the end of the 6thmillennium BC (cal.). The historical value of the Trypillia culture for the Ukrainian prehistory is in final victory of production economy on the Dnipro’s right bank first, and later, on the south of Left-Bank Ukraine. In fact, the population of the Black Sea steppe region, the Sea of Azov, and Donbas regions obtained the first skills of cattle breeding and agriculture from the Trypillians in the 5th&nbsp;and the 4th&nbsp;millennia BC (cal.). These Neolithic innovations from Trypillia to the steppe Eneolithic of the Black and Azov Seas regions were provided by so called «steppe Trypillia», known by the burials of Zhyvotyliv-Vovcha type. Consequently, the Neolithic of Ukraine is not an exception from the whole-European context. Right-Bank Ukraine was neolithizated synchronously with Central Europe as a result of colonization by the oldest farmers-colonists from the Danube region in the 6th-5th&nbsp;millennia BC (cal.). While in the 5th-4th&nbsp;millennia BC, Neolithic innovations from forest-steppe of Right-Bank Ukraine spread northward to Polissia and to the east and south-east of Ukraine. At the beginning of the 21st&nbsp;century, there was a change of conceptions of neolithization of the region in archaeology of Ukraine. The old south-west conception was replaced by the south-western one which corresponds to a general-European vision of the Neolithic revolution in Central Europe by its colonization in the 7th-5th&nbsp;millennia BC by the Neolithic farmers from the Balkans through the Danube region