Eastern European Accession Countries Research Articles

Are the Central and Eastern European Transition Countries Still Vulnerable to a Financial Crisis? Results from the Signals Approach

The aim of paper is to analyse the vulnerability of the Central and Eastern European accession countries to the EU as well as that of Turkey and Russia to a financial crisis. Our methodology is an extension of the signals approach. We develop a composite indicator to measure the evolutin of of the risk potential in each country. Our findings show that crises in Central and Eastern Europe are caused by much the usual suspects s in others emerging markets. In particular an overvalued exchange rate. Weak exports and dwindling currency reserves have good precictive power for assessing crisis vulnerabilities. Keywords: F31, F47, financial crises, vulnerability indicator, Central and Eastern Europe

Price convergence after the Eastern enlargement of the EU: evidence from retail food prices

Using detailed micro data on European retail food prices for EU15 and all eight Central and Eastern European accession countries, we analyse price convergence within the European Union after the enlargement shock in 2004. Testing for σ-convergence, we find a strong price convergence within EU23, which is mainly explained by convergence between and not within the two subgroups of the old and the new member states.

Migration, Energy and Good Governance in the EU's Eastern Neighbourhood

The literature on European Union enlargement has identified misfit and membership conditionality as two factors that decisively shape the effectiveness of EU policy transfer to the Central and Eastern European accession countries. Thus, European neighbourhood countries would seem to be less likely cases of EU-induced policy change. Yet, rather than inertia or resistance, we find that European neighbourhood countries comply with some but not with other EU policies. Our essay investigates such policy-specific variation in the compliance patterns of Georgia and Armenia that give rise to differential policy change. Comparing the fight against corruption, migration and energy policy, we argue that policy-specific conditionality and preferential fit are the main factors accounting for the EU's differential policy impact in European neighbourhood countries.

The Anticipated Effects of EU Enlargement: Exchange Rate Volatility, Institutions and Conditional Convergence

Improvement of economic policies and institutions and reduced exchange rate volatility are two expected effects arising when candidates develop prerequisites needed to qualify for EU membership. In this paper, we evaluate whether these two effects occurred in the Eastern European accession countries by inspecting exchange rate volatility and the evolution of different indicators of the quality of institutions before and after the start of the negotiation period. We then evaluate the impact of both effects on growth of real per capita GDP. By comparing the effects on accession countries to a group of control countries, including transition non candidates, we find that the prospect of accession has a significant effect on output growth, which starts materializing much before accession and even before the beginning of the negotiations with the EU.

Trends in mortality from major cancers in the European Union, including acceding countries, in 2004

In May 2004, 10 additional countries joined the European Union (EU), including a total of 75 million inhabitants. Most of these were from central and eastern European countries with comparably high cancer mortality rates and with relatively unfavorable trends. Therefore, it is important to provide updated mortality data regarding major cancers in various countries and to analyze trends for the current population of the EU. The authors considered mortality rates (directly standardized to the world standard population) for all cancers and for 8 major cancer sites in the year 2000 in the 25 countries of the EU and analyzed corresponding trends since 1980 using data derived from the World Health Organization data base. For men, overall cancer mortality in the year 2000 varied by a factor > 2 between the highest rate of 258.5 per 100,000 men in Hungary and the lowest rate of 122.0 per 100,000 men in Sweden. Central and Eastern European accession countries had the highest rates not only for lung and other tobacco-related cancers but also for gastrointestinal cancers and leukemias. The geographic pattern was different and the range of variation was smaller for women, i.e., between 136.7 per 100,000 women in Denmark and 76.4 per 100,000 women in Spain in the year 2000. In the EU as a whole, lung cancer mortality in men peaked at 55.4 per 100,000 men in 1988 and declined thereafter to 46.7 per 100,000 men in 2000. Gastric cancer steadily declined from 19.7 per 100,000 men in 1980 to 10.1 per 100,000 men in 2000. Other major sites showed moderately favorable trends over the last few years. In women, breast cancer peaked at 21.7 per 100,000 in 1989 and declined to 18.9 per 100,000 in 2000. Mortality from gastric, (cervix) uterus, and intestinal cancers demonstrated steady decreases, but lung cancer increased from 7.7 per 100,000 women in 1980 to 11.1 per 100,000 women in 2000. The increase in lung cancer mortality in women age < 55 years was 38% between 1990 and 2000 (from 2.16 per 100,000 women to 2.99 per 100,000 women), reflecting the spread of tobacco smoking among women in the EU over the last few decades. The priority for further reduction of cancer mortality in the EU remains tobacco control together with more widespread availability of modern diagnostic and treatment procedures for neoplasms that are amenable to treatment.

Trends in cancer mortality in the European Union and accession countries, 1980–2000

Cancer mortality rates and trends over the period 1980-2000 for accession countries to the European Union (EU) in May 2004, which include a total of 75 million inhabitants, were abstracted from the World Health Organization (WHO) database, together with, for comparative purposes, those of the current EU. Total cancer mortality for men was 166/100,000 in the EU, but ranged between 195 (Lithuania) and 269/100,000 (Hungary) in central and eastern European accession countries. This excess related to most cancer sites, including lung and other tobacco-related neoplasms, but also stomach, intestines and liver, and a few neoplasms amenable to treatment, such as testis, Hodgkin's disease and leukaemias. Overall cancer mortality for women was 95/100,000 in the EU, and ranged between 100 and 110/100,000 in several central and eastern European countries, and up to 120/100,000 in the Czech Republic and 138/100,000 in Hungary. The latter two countries had a substantial excess in female mortality for lung cancer, but also for several other sites. Furthermore, for stomach and especially (cervix) uteri, female rates were substantially higher in central and eastern European accession countries. Over the last two decades, trends in mortality were systematically less favourable in accession countries than in the EU. Most of the unfavourable patterns and trends in cancer mortality in accession countries are due to recognised, and hence potentially avoidable, causes of cancer, including tobacco, alcohol, dietary habits, pollution and hepatitis B, plus inadequate screening, diagnosis and treatment. Consequently, the application of available knowledge on cancer prevention, diagnosis and treatment may substantially reduce the disadvantage now registered in the cancer mortality of central and eastern European accession countries.

The Monetary Framework After Accession - A Political Economy Analysis of ERM2

The paper discusses the framework of ERM2 (the exchange rate mechanism of EMU, the Economic and Monetary Union) and its suitability for accession countries/advanced transition economies. It analyzes the exchange rate mechanism from two aspects. First, it considers how ERM2 regulates the monetary cohabitation of ins (Eurozone members) and outs (non-Eurozone members of EMU). Second it reviews how ERM2 is conducive to future euro-zone membership of the accession countries. From the first point of view it discusses whether ERM2 sufficiently protects outs from speculative attacks, and ins from competitive devaluation of the outs. From the second angle it examines whether ERM2 provides an appropriate environment for outs to fulfill the convergence criteria, and whether in this case ins open the door for the outs to enter the euro-zone. The principal argument of the paper is that the more ERM2 fulfills its first task, that is to regulate the relationship of ins and outs in a satisfactory way, the less it fulfills its second task, that is to lead outs in the Eurozone. Apart from that, the present framework of ERM2 and the convergence criteria together are not suitable for a fast and quick entry of the Central and Eastern European accession countries to the euro area. In order to overcome these pitfalls the author makes some proposals as well.

Comparing Economic Dynamics in the EU and CEE Accession Countries

This paper presents evidence for structural differences in economic growth dynamics between the current EU and the central- and eastern European accession countries. Two important results emerge from the analysis. First, accession countries have posted higher average growth and wider output fluctuations than the euro area and other EU countries. Second, a set of different methodologies suggests that business cycles of accession countries have been less synchronised with the euro area than those of the United Kingdom, Sweden and Denmark. It is less clear whether accession countries are also less synchronised than the euro area peripherals (Greece, Portugal and Ireland). Moreover, synchrony differed across countries. Some accession economies, particularly Hungary, Poland and Slovenia, showed a close alignment with euro area fluctuations. Others, in particular the Czech Republic and Slovakia, revealed remarkable asymmetries, which are a reminder that sizeable idiosyncratic shocks remain a risk.

Legal Consequences of EU Accession for Central and Eastern European Health Care Systems

Since the ratification of the Europe agreements, Eastern European accession countries are transposing community law into their national legal framework. The law approximation process in the field of health concerns three themes, viz public health, health–related issues, and the internal market. Although the health acquis has been largely focused on public–health issues, it is increasingly becoming clear that internal market treaty provisions may also affect health–related rights. For candidate member states this means that the common market has important consequences for health and their health–care systems. Therefore, this paper will examine the impact of relevant treaty provisions on acceding countries’ (public) health legal framework.

Are the Central and Eastern European Transition Countries Still Vulnerable to a Financial Crisis? Results from the Signals Approach

The aim of paper is to analyse the vulnerability of the Central and Eastern European accession countries to the EU as well as that of Turkey and Russia to a financial crisis. Our methodology is an extension of the signals approach. We develop a composite indicator to measure the evolutin of of the risk potential in each country. Our findings show that crises in Central and Eastern Europe are caused by much the usual suspects s in others emerging markets. In particular an overvalued exchange rate. Weak exports and dwindling currency reserves have good precictive power for assessing crisis vulnerabilities. Keywords: F31, F47, financial crises, vulnerability indicator, Central and Eastern Europe

Should the Central and Eastern European Accession Countries Adopt the EURO Before or After Accession

I analyse the option of unilateral euroisation for Central and Eastern Europe. The thorny questions of losing seigniorage and losing the lender of last resort are explicitly addressed. It is found that the option of unilateral euroisation might be quite inviting for some countries. This is certainly the case if one takes into account the difficulties thrown up by the Maastricht–criteria. It is argued that unilateral euroisation provides an elegant way out of the catch of the official EMU-accession path. The EU has, however, expressed explicitly its enmity against euroisation. I think this is a policy error. It should be at least a genuine policy option for all countries concerned. At best the EU should stimulate euroisation by embedding it in a broader and more embracing framework that would support integration and ultimately accession to the EU of the whole of Central and Eastern Europe.

EU accession: Negotiating “environmental dumping”?

“Environmental dumping” is a concern frequently raised in discussions on the potential risks involved in the eastern enlargement of the European Union1 (EU).2 There is a general concern that the Central and Eastern European accession countries may be neither willing nor able to fully apply the EU’s environmental acquis communautaire, the body of Community environmental legislation, once they have joined the EU. As a result, these countries would benefit from a competitive advantage when selling their goods on the Internal Market. This article asks whether, and in which specific cases, such concerns may be justified.