Eastern Equatorial Africa Research Articles

Global-scale water security and desertification management amidst climate change.

Deserts and semi-arid environments are habitats torare species, rich cultural heritage, and essential ecological processes. Approximately 46% of the world's surface area is covered by drylands (arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas), where 3 billion people live and unfortunately witness water insecurity and desertification implications. In this context, the present study argued that reduced dryland ecosystem services and decreased ecosystem health have resulted from the individual and compounding impacts of desertification, water scarcity, and climate change. At 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C of global warming, under the shared socio-economic pathway SSP2, the number of people living in drylands who will be affected by various effects on water, energy, and land sectors is projected to reach 951 million, 1152 million, and 1285 million, respectively. Due to combinations of land use change, rainfall variations, fire suppression, and CO2 fertilization, as well as unsustainable management, widespread woody encroachment has occurred in many shrublands and savannas in Africa, Australia, North America, and South America. This hasaltered biodiversity and reduces ecosystem services, such as water availability and grazing potential. The north side of the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and North and South America are projected to have the most semiarid expansion. Contrarily, drylands are expected to shrinkin India, northern China, eastern equatorial Africa, and the southern Sahara. Growing research evidence highlights the adoption of policy frameworks deriving the solutions from soil land management (SLM), indigenous and local knowledge (ILK), early warning systems coupled with adaptation and mitigation responses, and targets of sustainable development goals (SDGs).

Oldest record of a crown anomaluroid rodent from sub-Saharan Africa: a new genus and species from the early Oligocene Topernawi formation of northern Kenya

ABSTRACT Anomaluroid rodents (i.e. Anomaluridae + Zenkerellidae) have a long evolutionary history in Africa dating back to at least the middle Eocene, but Palaeogene fossil members of the anomaluroid crown group have never been found south of the Sahara. Here, we describe the oldest crown anomaluroid from sub-Saharan Africa, Eliwourus topernawiensis (new genus and species) from the early Oligocene Topernawi Formation of northern Kenya. Bayesian phylogenetic tip-dating analysis of a combined molecular-morphological dataset places ~29.5 Ma Eliwourus as an advanced stem anomalurid, and suggests that crown Anomaluridae originated ~28.2 Ma. The gliding behaviour seen in all crown anomalurids had, therefore, likely evolved before the close of the early Oligocene. Bayesian geocoordinates analysis places the origin of crown Anomaluroidea (~47.2 Ma) in northern Africa, and identifies a stem anomalurid dispersal into equatorial eastern Africa in the latest Eocene or earliest Oligocene. We present the first quantitative analysis of the pace of anomaluroid dental evolution and confirm a remarkably slow or bradytelic rate of phenotypic change, despite significant transformations in postcranial morphology related to the evolution of gliding behaviour during the same interval. The Topernawi area was evidently sufficiently forested during the early Oligocene to support both arboreal rodents and primates.

Disentangling influences of climate variability and lake-system evolution on climate proxies derived from isoprenoid and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs): the 250 kyr Lake Chala record

Abstract. High-resolution paleoclimate records from tropical continental settings are greatly needed to advance understanding of global climate dynamics. The International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) project DeepCHALLA recovered a 214.8 m long sediment sequence from Lake Chala, a deep and permanently stratified (meromictic) crater lake in eastern equatorial Africa, covering the past ca. 250 000 years (250 kyr) of continuous lacustrine deposition since the earliest phase of lake-basin development. Lipid biomarker analyses on the sediments of Lake Chala can provide quantitative records of past variation in temperature and moisture balance from this poorly documented region. However, the degree to which climate proxies derived from aquatically produced biomarkers are affected by aspects of lake developmental history is rarely considered, even though it may critically influence their ability to consistently register a particular climate variable through time. Modern-system studies of Lake Chala revealed crucial information about the mechanisms underpinning relationships between proxies based on isoprenoid (iso-) and branched (br-) glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) and the targeted climate variables, but the persistence of these relationships in the past remains unclear. Here we assess the reliability of long-term climate signals registered in the sediments of Lake Chala by comparing downcore variations in GDGT distributions with major phases in lake-system evolution as reflected by independent proxies of lake depth, mixing regime and nutrient dynamics: seismic reflection data, lithology and fossil diatom assemblages. Together, these records suggest that during early lake history (before ca. 180–200 ka) the distinct mixing-related depth zones with which specific GDGT producers are associated in the modern-day lake were not yet formed, likely due to more open lake hydrology and absence of chemical water-column stratification. Consequently absolute GDGT concentrations dating to this period are relatively low, proxies sensitive to water-column stratification (e.g., branched versus isoprenoid tetraether (BIT) index) display highly irregular temporal variability, and correlations between proxies are dissimilar to expectations based on modern-system understanding. A sequence of lake-system changes between ca. 180–200 and ca. 80 ka first established and then strengthened the chemical density gradient, promoting meromictic conditions despite the overall decrease in lake depth due to the basin gradually being filled up with sediments. From ca. 180 ka onward some GDGTs and derived proxies (e.g., crenarchaeol concentration, BIT index and IR6Me) display strong ∼ 23 kyr periodicity, likely reflecting the predominantly precession-driven insolation forcing of Quaternary climate variability in low-latitude regions. Our results suggest that GDGT-based temperature and moisture-balance proxies in Lake Chala sediments reflect the climate history of eastern equatorial Africa from at least ca. 160 ka onwards, i.e., covering the complete last glacial–interglacial cycle and the penultimate glacial maximum. This work confirms the potential of lacustrine GDGTs for elucidating the climate history of tropical regions at Quaternary timescales, provided they are applied to suitably high-quality sediment archives. Additionally, their interpretation should incorporate a broader understanding of the extent to which lake-system evolution limits the extrapolation back in time of proxy-climate relationships established in the modern system.

Microbiomic Analysis of Bacteria Associated with Rock Tripe Lichens from Alpine Areas in Eastern Alps and Equatorial Africa

The diversity of bacteria associated with alpine lichens was profiled. Lichen samples belonging to the Umbilicariaceae family, commonly known as rock tripe lichens, were gathered from two distinct alpine fellfields: one situated on Mt. Brennkogel located in the Eastern European Alps (Austria), and the other on Mt. Stanley located in the Rwenzori mountains of equatorial Africa (Uganda). The primary aim of this research was to undertake a comparative investigation into the bacterial compositions, and diversities, identifying potential indicators and exploring their potential metabolisms, of these lichen samples. Bulk genomic DNA was extracted from the lichen samples, which was used to amplify the 18S rRNA gene by Sanger sequencing and the V3-V4 region of the 16S rRNA gene by Illumina Miseq sequencing. Examination of the fungal partner was carried out through the analysis of 18S rRNA gene sequences, belonging to the genus Umbilicaria (Ascomycota), and the algal partner affiliated with the lineage Trebouxia (Chlorophyta), constituted the symbiotic components. Analyzing the MiSeq datasets by using bioinformatics methods, operational taxonomic units (OTUs) were established based on a predetermined similarity threshold for the V3-V4 sequences, which were assigned to a total of 26 bacterial phyla that were found in both areas. Eight of the 26 phyla, i.e. Acidobacteriota, Actinomycota, Armatimonadota, Bacteroidota, Chloroflexota, Deinococcota, Planctomycetota, and Pseudomonadota, were consistently present in all samples, each accounting for more than 1% of the total read count. Distinct differences in bacterial composition emerged between lichen samples from Austria and Uganda, with the OTU frequency-based regional indicator phyla, Pseudomonadota and Armatimonadota, respectively. Despite the considerable geographic separation of approximately 5430 km between the two regions, the prediction of potential metabolic pathways based on OTU analysis revealed similar relative abundances. This similarity is possibly influenced by comparable alpine climatic conditions prevailing in both areas.

Hyracoidea from the Oligocene of Topernawi, Turkana Basin, Kenya

ABSTRACT The Topernawi area of west Turkana, northern Kenya, preserves a number of recently discovered vertebrate fossil localities of mid-Oligocene age. The Topernawi fauna provides important new data on mammalian evolution in equatorial eastern Africa during the mid-Cenozoic. Here, we describe five new species of hyracoids from Topernawi: Nengohyrax josephi, Abdahyrax philipi, Geniohyus ewoii, Thyrohyrax lokutani, and Thyrohyrax ekaii. These species range in reconstructed body mass from ∼8 to ∼150 kg, comparable to the body size range that has been observed at other hyracoid-rich Paleogene sites. We use Bayesian tip-dating phylogenetic analyses to estimate hyracoid relationships. We find that non-Thyrohyrax species from Topernawi are members of Geniohyidae, a clade of bunodont, Paleogene hyracoids. Despite being approximately the same age as some of the youngest and best-sampled horizons in the Jebel Qatrani Formation (Fayum, northern Egypt), the Topernawi hyracoid fauna is distinct, and shows no overlap at the species level; it also shows no species overlap with the ∼1.5–2.5 Ma younger Chilga localities in northern Ethiopia. The hyracoid assemblage from Topernawi adds to a growing body of evidence which suggests that certain distinctive clades known from earlier Oligocene horizons in northern Africa (Saghatherium, Selenohyrax, Titanohyrax) did not persist into the late Oligocene.

A Lake Record of Geomagnetic Secular Variations for the Last 23 ka From Lake Chala: Toward a Composite Directional Lake Record of the Earth's Magnetic Field for Equatorial East Africa

AbstractThe documentation and understanding of variations in the Earth's magnetic field through time is fundamental for several disciplines, but current geomagnetic models rely on datasets heavily biased toward the mid‐ and high northern latitudes. The African continent and surrounding islands and oceans are particularly underrepresented. Here, we present a new record of paleo‐secular variation (PSV) of the inclinations over the last 23 ka from Lake Chala, situated at 3°S near Mt Kilimanjaro in eastern equatorial Africa. This groundwater‐fed crater lake is characterized by a high sedimentation rate (ca. 1 cm/10 years) and a particularly well‐constrained age model based on 210Pb and 14C dating. The magnetic mineralogy of the sediments is tested with rock magnetic analyses. The Lake Chala inclination record shows four highs and lows over 20 ka and compares well with that of Lake Malawi (10°S) between 20 and 16.2 ka, and from 9.8 to 2.6 ka. This record is linked to PSV records at Lakes Victoria and Malawi using a sequence slotting technique to generate a composite PSV model for east Africa. Analyzed at best‐possible resolutions up to 200 years, the Lake Chala PSV record not only represents an important contribution to improve our understanding of local and global features of the Earth's magnetic field. It also expands the utility of paleomagnetism as a key tool for dating and correlation both for archeological sites throughout East Africa and the many volcanoes, active or dormant, of the East African Rift System.

The >250-kyr Lake Chala record: A tephrostratotype correlating archaeological, palaeoenvironmental and volcanic sequences across eastern Africa

Regional tephrostratigraphic frameworks connect palaeoclimate, archaeological and volcanological records preserved in soils or lake sediments via shared volcanic ash (tephra) layers. In eastern Africa, tracing of tephra isochrons between geoarchaeological sequences is an established chronostratigraphic approach. However, to date, few long tephra records exist from sites with continuous depositional sequences, such as lake sediments, which offer the potential to connect local and discontinuous sequences at the regional scale. Long lake sediment sequences may also capture more complete eruptive histories of understudied volcanic centres. Here, we present and date the tephrostratigraphic record of a >250,000-year (>250-kyr) continuous sediment sequence extracted from Lake Chala, a crater lake on the Kenya-Tanzania border near Mt Kilimanjaro. Single-grain glass major and minor element analyses of visible and six cryptotephra layers reveal compositions ranging from mafic foidites and basanites to more evolved tephri-phonolites, phonolites, trachytes and a single rhyolite. Of these, nine are correlated to scoria cone eruptions of neighbouring Mt Kilimanjaro or the Chyulu volcanic field ∼60 km to the north; seven are correlated to phonolitic eruptions of Mt Meru, ∼100 km to the west; and four to voluminous trachytic eruptions of Central Kenyan Rift (CKR) volcanoes located ∼350 km to the north. The only rhyolitic tephra layer, a cryptotephra, correlates to the 73.7-ka BP (before present, taken as 1950 CE) Younger Toba Tuff (YTT) from Sumatra. Two of the CKR tephra layers provide direct ties with terrestrial sequences relevant to Middle Stone Age archaeology of the eastern Lake Victoria basin in Kenya. Absolute age estimates obtained by direct 40Ar/39Ar dating of 10 tephra layers are combined with six 210Pb and 162 14C dates covering the last 25-kyr and the well-constrained known age of the YTT to build a first absolute chronology for the full Lake Chala sediment sequence. The uninterrupted >250-kyr Lake Chala sedimentary archive represents a unique tephrostratotype sequence for eastern Africa, optimising the chronological value of tephra correlations in regional palaeoenvironmental, archaeological and volcanological research. Further study of cryptotephra in the Lake Chala sequence and additional geochemical characterisation and dating of ancient volcanic eruptions from nearby and further afield may eventually produce a regionally connected and detailed tephrostratigraphic framework for eastern equatorial Africa.

Comparisons of reanalysis and measured lower‐troposphere winds over a portion of equatorial Africa

AbstractDespite lower‐troposphere wind flow being a major control of rainfall in equatorial Africa, no studies have systematically compared winds from multiple reanalyses nor have attempted to validate the wind directions. Therefore, the objectives of this study are to assess differences in wind directions among multiple reanalysis products and compare reanalysis winds with wind measurements made at weather stations. The study region is western Uganda, part of the transition region between western equatorial Africa (WEA) and eastern equatorial Africa (EEA). Four‐times daily (i.e., 0Z, 6Z, 12Z and 18Z) 10‐m and 850‐hPa winds from 1980 to 2021 are obtained for ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), Japan Meteorological Agency 55‐year Reanalysis (JRA55), Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA2), NCEP‐NCAR Reanalysis 1 (R1) and NCEP/DOE Reanalysis II (R2). Wind measurements at 10 m and 850 hPa are obtained for six weather stations and two weather stations, respectively. Agreements between pairs of products and between measurements and reanalysis estimates are determined. In addition, differences between reanalyses and measurements with respect to wind vectors are calculated. Results show that the majority of reanalyses have western Uganda within the prevailing easterly flow over EEA and east of the prevailing westerly flow over WEA. Ten‐meter wind measurements also show easterly flow being prevalent throughout western Uganda. R1 is unique among the products due to a relatively large number of westerly days. However, much of the westerly flow is likely artificial, based on station data. MERRA2 has large easterly biases. JRA55 is much more accurate than the other products at reproducing the intra‐annual frequencies of wind directions. JRA55 and ERA5 are the least biased products based on the magnitudes of difference vectors. Therefore, it is recommended that JRA55 and ERA5 continue to be used in examinations of winds in western Uganda.

Introduction

Introduction

Late Pleistocene montane forest fire return interval estimates from Mount Kenya

AbstractPast forest fire events and fire frequencies are reconstructed with sediment–charcoal records at lake catchment spatial scales. Few quantitative palaeofire analyses exist in tropical montane forests, where fire return intervals are long (decadal and centennial scales) because of the infrequency of fire weather and fuel conditions. Fire return intervals are a key characteristic of fire regimes and changing fire frequencies rapidly alter land cover compositions and vegetation structure. Charcoal records from small lakes with relatively small catchments covered with dense forest provide an opportunity to reconstruct low‐frequency, high‐severity fires through a time series decomposition approach to identify charcoal peaks above a varying background rate as a proxy for palaeofire events. The sediment core from Rumuiku wetland on Mount Kenya, equatorial eastern Africa, accumulated a nearly linear age–depth model and provided a high temporal resolution (10 years cm–1) sieved charcoal count record (>125 µm). Pollen analysis showed a significant change in montane forest assemblage occurred at 21 200 cal abpfrom a montane forest with abundantPodocarpusandJuniperusto a forest with more abundantHagenia. This change in forest altered the vegetation composition and structure with concomitant changes to the fire regime. Forest biomass in theHageniaforests decreased and it is likely that fire activity qualitatively changed toward lower intensity and lower severity fires. The quantitative fire event reconstruction focuses on the interval from 27 000 to 16 500 cal a bp and the older montane forest that experienced higher severity fires from 27 000 to 21 200 cal abp,which reconstructed a temporally heterogeneous fire regime with fire return intervals that ranged from 30–430 years and a mean of 120 years (median 160 years) in the catchment. These are the first estimates of fire return intervals of mountain forests in eastern Africa. We then explore the potential for further comparative research and incremental research contributions to improve quantitative and qualitative palaeofire research in tropical forest ecosystems. We discuss the potential to use these types of data for characterizing variables of fire regimes prior to ostensibly significant modification by anthropogenic activity as well as during the recent past as human land use pressures increased within Afromontane forests.

The dynamics of warming during the last deglaciation in high-elevation regions of Eastern Equatorial Africa

Tropical mountain environments, such as the Rwenzori Mountains in equatorial Africa, are thought to be particularly sensitive to climate change. Ongoing warming in the Rwenzori is impacting local environments and communities through glacial retreat, fires, and flooding. Paleoclimate reconstructions from elsewhere in Africa suggest considerable warming accompanied glacier retreat during the last glacial termination, from ∼21 thousand years before present (ka) through the early to mid-Holocene. Quantifying these changes has been difficult but could help to assess future impacts in the Rwenzori. Here, we present a ∼21 thousand-year (kyr) temperature reconstruction based on the relative abundance of branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) from Lake Mahoma (2,990 m above sea level; m asl) in the Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda. Our record, paired with existing Rwenzori glacial moraine 10Be exposure ages, suggests that deglacial warming and glacial retreat began by ∼20 ka and accelerated at ∼18–18.5 ka. The timing of the onset of rapid warming matches the timing of the post-glacial rise in radiative forcing from atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) from Antarctic ice cores (Brook et al., 1996; Marcott et al., 2014; Monnin et al., 2004; Schilt et al., 2010). Our temperature reconstruction registers ∼4.9 °C warming from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the late Holocene. This increase is larger than the average ∼2-4 °C warming observed in records from lower elevation sites in tropical East Africa, but similar to that observed at other high-elevation sites in this region. The increased warming at higher elevations thus confirms that the temperature lapse rate steepened during the LGM over this region. Our results also indicate ∼3 °C of warming during the mid-Holocene relative to the late Holocene. This suggests that the freezing-level height rose above Rwenzori summit elevations at that time, likely causing complete deglaciation of the Rwenzori Mountains from ∼5 to 7 ka. The mid-Holocene is thus a potential analog for the glacial and environmental changes that these mountains are likely to experience in the coming decades. Overall, the timing and magnitude of temperature change observed in our record has important implications for climate model projections of future warming in tropical Africa.

Teleconnections between Rainfall in Equatorial Africa and Tropical Sea-Surface Temperatures: A Focus on Western Uganda

AbstractSubstantial research on the teleconnections between rainfall and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) has been conducted across equatorial Africa as a whole, but currently no focused examination exists for western Uganda, a rainfall transition zone between eastern equatorial Africa (EEA) and central equatorial Africa (CEA). This study examines correlations between satellite-based rainfall totals in western Uganda and SSTs – and associated indices – across the tropics over 1983-2019. It is found that rainfall throughout western Uganda is teleconnected to SSTs in all tropical oceans, but much more strongly to SSTs in the Indian and Pacific Oceans than the Atlantic Ocean. Increased Indian Ocean SSTs during boreal winter, spring, and autumn and a pattern similar to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole during boreal summer are associated with increased rainfall in western Uganda. The most spatially complex teleconnections in western Uganda occur during September-December, with northwestern Uganda being similar to EEA during this period and southwestern Uganda being similar to CEA. During boreal autumn and winter, northwestern Uganda has increased rainfall associated with SST patterns resembling a positive Indian Ocean Dipole or El Niño. Southwestern Uganda does not have those teleconnections; in fact, increased rainfall there tends to be more associated with La Niña-like SST patterns. Tropical Atlantic Ocean SSTs also appear to influence rainfall in southwestern Uganda in boreal winter as well as in boreal summer. Overall, western Uganda is a heterogeneous region with respect to rainfall-SST teleconnections; therefore, southwestern Uganda and northwestern Uganda require separate analyses and forecasts, especially during boreal autumn and winter.

The White-headed yellow wagtail <em>Motacilla flava leucocephala</em> (Przewalski, 1887): migration, movements, and breeding and wintering ranges

The subspecies leucocephala of the western yellow wagtail Motacilla flava is endemic to the Altai-Sayan Ecoregion (Central Asia). The occurrence of leucocephala is associated with saline water bodies and solonchak habitats. Its distribution, especially outside the breeding season, is still uncertain. The aim of this work is to better define the breeding range, migratory movements, and the wintering range of this subspecies and provide guidance to distinguish whiteheaded intraspecific hybrids from the true leucocephala subspecies. The reproductive range of leucocephala is concentrated near lakes and wetlands in the Great Lakes Depression (north-west Mongolia) and in the flat southern part of the Tuva Republic (Russian Federation). The small population uses two separate areas for wintering: the eastern equatorial Africa reached through the Great Rift Valley Flyway and the Indian subcontinent reached along a route that bypasses the great belt of mountains and plateaus of central Asia to the west.

The observed synoptic scale precipitation relationship between Western Equatorial Africa and Eastern Equatorial Africa

AbstractAn improvement to subseasonal (i.e., days to weeks) rainfall prediction across Equatorial Africa is an important area of current research. This is because most countries in this region are highly dependent on rain‐fed agriculture, and so millions of livelihoods are at risk in the event of an unexpected poor harvest. This study examines 16 years of daily precipitation anomalies to investigate the relationship in precipitation between Western Equatorial Africa (WEA) and Eastern Equatorial Africa (EEA). Using lead/lag correlation and spatio‐temporal correlation patterns over various sub‐regions, a synoptic‐scale relationship in precipitation is presented between WEA and EEA, in which precipitation over EEA lags precipitation over WEA by 1–2 days. In addition, central WEA and sub‐regions in South Sudan display a synoptic‐timescale precipitation contrast, suggesting a weak precipitation dipole. Consistent with the known heterogeneity characteristic of Equatorial Africa's precipitation, our findings suggest that the 1–2 days precipitation relationship is dependent upon the sub‐region under investigation. Furthermore, our results indicate a coherent synoptic‐timescale eastward/northeastward propagating signal with a speed of approximately 12 m/s. Composite and correlation analyses of precipitation anomalies and a novel equatorial wave dataset show an apparent connection between eastward/northeastward propagating wet anomalies and Kelvin wave lower‐tropospheric convergence. This suggests that Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) play a role in modulating the 1–2 days convection and precipitation propagation between WEA and EEA. These results imply that monitoring the propagation characteristics of CCKWs may be important in synoptic‐timescale forecasting over Equatorial Africa.

Recent intensification of the seasonal rainfall cycle in equatorial Africa revealed by farmer perceptions, satellite-based estimates, and ground-based station measurements

Smallholder farmers and livestock keepers in sub-Saharan Africa are on the frontlines of climate variability and change. Yet, in many regions, a paucity of weather and climate data has prevented rigorous assessment of recent climate trends and their causes, thereby limiting the effectiveness of forecasts and other services for climate adaptation. In rainfed systems, farmer perceptions of changing rainfall and weather patterns are important precursors for annual cropping decisions. Here, we propose that combining such farmer perceptions of trends in seasonal rainfall with satellite-based rainfall estimates and climate station data can reduce uncertainties regarding regional climatic trends. In western Uganda, a rural and climatically complex transition zone between eastern and central equatorial Africa, data from 980 smallholder households suggest distinct changes in seasonal bimodal rainfall over recent decades, specifically wetter rainy seasons and drier dry seasons. Data from three satellite-based rainfall products beginning in 1983 largely corroborate respondent perceptions over the last 10–20 years, particularly in the southernmost sites near Queen Elizabeth National Park. In addition, combining all three information sources suggests an increasing trend in annual rainfall, most prominently in the north near Murchison Falls National Park over the past two decades; this runs counter to recent research asserting the presence of a drying trend in the region. Our study is unique in evaluating and cross-validating these multiple data sources to identify climatic change affecting people in a poorly understood region, while providing insights into regional-scale climate controls.

Understanding linkages between global climate indices and terrestrial water storage changes over Africa using GRACE products

Africa, a continent endowed with huge water resources that sustain its agricultural activities is increasingly coming under threat from impacts of climate extremes (droughts and floods), which puts the very precious water resource into jeopardy. Understanding the relationship between climate variability and water storage over the continent, therefore, is paramount in order to inform future water management strategies. This study employs Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data and the higher order (fourth order cumulant) statistical independent component analysis (ICA) method to study the relationship between terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes and five global climate-teleconnection indices; El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) over Africa for the period 2003–2014. Pearson correlation analysis is applied to extract the connections between these climate indices (CIs) and TWS, from which some known strong CI-rainfall relationships (e.g., over equatorial eastern Africa) are found. Results indicate unique linear-relationships and regions that exhibit strong linkages between CIs and TWS. Moreover, unique regions having strong CI-TWS connections that are completely different from the typical ENSO-rainfall connections over eastern and southern Africa are also identified. Furthermore, the results indicate that the first dominant independent components (IC) of the CIs are linked to NAO, and are characterized by significant reductions of TWS over southern Africa. The second dominant ICs are associated with IOD and are characterized by significant increases in TWS over equatorial eastern Africa, while the combined ENSO and MJO are apparently linked to the third ICs, which are also associated with significant increase in TWS changes over both southern Africa, as well as equatorial eastern Africa.

Numerical simulation of surface solar radiation over Southern Africa. Part 1: Evaluation of regional and global climate models

In the second part of this study, possible impacts of climate change on Surface Solar Radiation (SSR) in Southern Africa (SA) are evaluated. We use outputs from 20 regional climate simulations from five Regional Climate Models (RCM) that participate in the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment program over the African domain (CORDEX-Africa) along with their 10 driving Global Climate Models (GCM) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Multi-model mean projections of SSR trends are consistent between the GCMs and their nested RCMs. However, this consistency is not found for each GCM/RCM setup. Over the centre of SA, GCMs and RCMs project a statistically significant increase in SSR by 2099 of about + 1 W/m2 per decade in RCP4.5 (+ 1.5 W/m2 per decade in RCP8.5) during the DJF season in their multi-model means. Over Eastern Equatorial Africa (EA-E) a statistically significant decrease in SSR of about − 1.5 W/m2 per decade in RCP4.5 (− 2 W/m2 per decade in RCP8.5) is found in the ensemble means in DJF, whereas in JJA SSR is predicted to increase by about + 0.5 W/m2 per decade under RCP4.5 (+ 1 W/m2 per decade in RCP8.5). SSR projections are fairly similar between RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 before 2050 and then the differences between those two scenarios increase up to about 1 W/m2 per decade with larger changes in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5 scenario. These SSR evolutions are generally consistent with projected changes in Cloud Cover Fraction over SA and may also related to the changes in atmosphere water vapor content. SSR change signals emerge earlier out of internal variability estimated from reanalyses (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis ERA-Interim, ERAIN) in DJF in RCMs than in GCMs, which suggests a higher sensitivity of RCMs to the forcing RCP scenarios than their driving GCMs in simulating SSR changes. Uncertainty in SSR change projections over SA is dominated by the internal climate variability before 2050, and after that model and scenario uncertainties become as important as internal variability until the end of the 21st century.

Trends of intraseasonal descriptors of wet and dry spells over equatorial eastern Africa

ABSTRACTMany African countries whose economies are largely based on weather/climate sensitive sectors are vulnerable to long‐term changes in weather and climate. This study is aimed at assessing whether the recent decades have observed any significant trend in the intraseasonal descriptors (ISDs) of wet and dry spells at local and sub‐regional levels at seasonal and monthly timescales over equatorial eastern Africa (EEA). Daily rainfall observations over 36 stations and spanning a period of 51 years (1962–2012) were used.The study has expanded on previous results that showed contrasting trends on seasonal totals between the two rainfall seasons by demonstrating that this also affects the ISDs. At the local level, it was observed that during the long rainfall season, a given ISD would have a significant trend over several neighbouring locations, which was not the case during the short rainfall season. Secondly, for the short rainfall season, a given location would have significant trend in several ISDs. Finally, when a given ISD had a significant trend at seasonal timescale during the long rainfall season, the same ISD would have significant trends in the second and third months of the season and rarely in the first month. Such a feature was not observed for the short rainfall season. Binomial probability distribution assessment confirmed that the significant trends in the various ISDs during the long rainfall season did not occur by mere chance.

Multi-century tree-ring precipitation record reveals increasing frequency of extreme dry events in the upper Blue Nile River catchment.

Climate-related environmental and humanitarian crisis are important challenges in the Great Horn of Africa (GHA). In the absence of long-term past climate records in the region, tree-rings are valuable climate proxies, reflecting past climate variations and complementing climate records prior to the instrumental era. We established annually resolved multi-century tree-ring chronology from Juniperus procera trees in northern Ethiopia, the longest series yet for the GHA. The chronology correlates significantly with wet-season (r=.64, p<.01) and annual (r=.68, p<.01) regional rainfall. Reconstructed rainfall since A.D. 1811 revealed significant interannual variations between 2.2 and 3.8 year periodicity, with significant decadal and multidecadal variations during 1855-1900 and 1960-1990. The duration of negative and positive rainfall anomalies varied between 1-7years and 1-8years. Approximately 78.4% (95%) of reconstructed dry (extreme dry) and 85.4% (95%) of wet (extreme wet) events lasted for 1 year only and corresponded to historical records of famine and flooding, suggesting that future climate change studies should be both trend and extreme event focused. The average return periods for dry (extreme dry) and wet (extreme wet) events were 4.1 (8.8) years and 4.1 (9.5) years. Extreme-dry conditions during the 19th century were concurrent with drought episodes in equatorial eastern Africa that occurred at the end of the Little Ice Age. El Niño and La Niña events matched with 38.5% and 50% of extreme-dry and extreme-wet events. Equivalent matches for positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole events were weaker, reaching 23.1 and 25%, respectively. Spatial correlations revealed that reconstructed rainfall represents wet-season rainfall variations over northern Ethiopia and large parts of the Sahel belt. The data presented are useful for backcasting climate and hydrological models and for developing regional strategic plans to manage scarce and contested water resources. Historical perspectives on long-term regional rainfall variability improve the interpretation of recent climate trends.

Tropospheric Ozone Climatology in Eastern Equatorial Africa

Tropospheric ozone climatology in eastern Equatorial Africa has been at the core of this study. Seasonal and annual tropospheric ozone distribution and variation have been investigated using SHADOZ network data from Nairobi for the period 1998-2013. Meteorological parameters including air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure as well as ozone partial pressure have permitted to provide the first comprehensible tropospheric ozone climatology over this region. Mean seasonal tropospheric ozone distribution displays two distinct peaks occurring in winter with 43 DU (July) and 46.8 DU in spring (October). Comparison of mean seasonal ozone partial pressure with relative humidity profiles shows a logarithmic trend with strong regression coefficient for ozone partial pressure (0.81<R2<0.92). Conversely relative humidity variation displays a linear trend with a weak seasonal regression (0.57<R2<0.74). Seasonal vertical tropospheric ozone variation displays two ozone peaks of 121 ppbv in JJA and 126 ppbv in SON at 100 hPa respectively. A minimum photochemical source contribution from local and neighboring countries has been noted at surface to mid latitude. Investigation of individual profiles chosen as case studies for JJA (25/07/2001) and SON (09/10/2002), to assess the origin of high tropospheric ozone concentration has been performed by using back trajectory HYSPLIT model. The strong role played by the Indian Ocean in the long range transport of easterly air mass into eastern Africa at mid and upper troposphere in both seasons has been confirmed. However mean monthly NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis model used to assess the contribution of STE (Stratospheric Tropospheric Exchange), shows a positive mean eddy divergence values during the months of June to July 2001, with evidence of high vorticity 1 sigma values occurring over the same period. In summer higher positive 1 sigma divergence as well as 1 sigma vorticity values have been noted showing stronger STE activity occurring in SON period. These parameters suggest that STE contribution to ozone enhancement in equatorial east Africa is stronger during SON than in JJA. Given the complexity of climate patterns over the equatorial region, in which Nairobi is located, the influence of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) and QBO (Quasi Biennial Oscillation) in the STE occurrence cannot be excluded as noted by previous studies.